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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Three-dimensional Hydrodynamic Simulations of Convective Nuclear Burning in Massive Stars Near Iron Core Collapse

Nonspherical structure in massive stars at the point of iron core collapse can have a qualitative impact on the properties of the ensuing core-collapse supernova explosions and the multimessenger signals they produce. Strong perturbations can aid successful explosions by strengthening turbulence in the postshock region. Here we report on a set of 4π 3D hydrodynamic simulations of O- and Si-shell burning in massive star models of varied initial masses using MESA and the FLASH simulation framework. We evolve four separate 3D models for roughly the final 10 minutes prior to and including iron core collapse. We consider initial 1D MESA models with masses of 14, 20, and 25 M ⊙ to survey a range of O/Si-shell density and compositional configurations. Further, we characterize the convective shells in our 3D models and compare them to the corresponding 1D models. In general, we find that the angle-average convective speeds in our 3D simulations near collapse are three to four times larger than the convective speeds predicted by MESA at the same epoch for our chosen mixing length parameter of α MLT = 1.5. In three of our simulations, we observe significant power in the spherical harmonic decomposition of the radial velocity field at harmonic indices of ℓ = 1–3 near collapse. Our results suggest that large-scale modes are common in massive stars near collapse and should be considered a key aspect of presupernova progenitor models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison

In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. In this paper, our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Twelve-month, 12 km resolution North American WRF-Chem v3.4 air quality simulation: performance evaluation

We present results from and evaluate the performance of a 12-month, 12 km horizontal resolution year 2005 air pollution simulation for the contiguous United States using the WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry) meteorology and chemical transport model (CTM). We employ the 2005 US National Emissions Inventory, the Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism (RACM), and the Modal Aerosol Dynamics Model for Europe (MADE) with a volatility basis set (VBS) secondary aerosol module. Overall, model performance is comparable to contemporary modeling efforts used for regulatory and health-effects analysis, with an annual average daytime ozone (O 3 ) mean fractional bias (MFB) of 12% and an annual average fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) MFB of −1%. WRF-Chem, as configured here, tends to overpredict total PM 2.5 at some high concentration locations and generally overpredicts average 24 h O 3 concentrations. Performance is better at predicting daytime-average and daily peak O 3 concentrations, which are more relevant for regulatory and health effects analyses relative to annual average values. Predictive performance for PM 2.5 subspecies is mixed: the model overpredicts particulate sulfate (MFB = 36%), underpredicts particulate nitrate (MFB = −110%) and organic carbon (MFB = −29%), and relatively accurately predicts particulate ammonium (MFB = 3%) and elemental carbon (MFB = 3%), so that the accuracy in total PM 2.5 predictions is to some extent a function of offsetting over- and underpredictions of PM 2.5 subspecies. Model predictive performance for PM 2.5 and its subspecies is in general worse in winter and in the western US than in other seasons and regions, suggesting spatial and temporal opportunities for future WRF-Chem model development and evaluation.

Tessum, C. W. (ORCID:0000000288647436)↗

Noise tests of a model engine-over-the-wing STOL configuration using a multijet nozzle with deflector

Noise data were obtained with a small scale model stationary STOL configuration that used an eight lobe mixer nozzle with deflector mounted above a 32-cm-chord wing section. The factors varied to determine their effect upon the noise were wing flap angle, nozzle shape, nozzle location, deflector configuration, and jet velocity. The noise from the mixer nozzle model was compared to the noise from a model using a circular nozzle of the same area. The mixer nozzle model was quieter at the low to middle frequencies, while the circular nozzle was quieter at high frequencies. The perceived noise level (PNL) was calculated for an aircraft 10 times larger than the model. The PNL at 500 feet for the mixer nozzle turned out to be within 1 db of the PNL for the circular nozzle. For some configurations at highly directional broadband noise, which could be eliminated by changes in nozzle and/or deflector location, occurred below the wing.

Olsen, W. A.↗

Application of remote sensing in estimating evapotranspiration in the Platte river basin

A 'resistance model' and a mass transport model for estimating evapotranspiration (ET) were tested on large fields of naturally subirrigated alfalfa. Both models make use of crop canopy temperature data. Temperature data were obtained with an IR thermometer and with leaf thermocouples. A Bowen ratio-energy balance (BREB) model, adjusted to account for underestimation of ET during periods of strong sensible heat advection, was used as the standard against which the resistance and mass transport models were compared. Daily estimates by the resistance model were within 10% of estimates made by the BREB model. Daily estimates by the mass transport model did not agree quite as well. Performance was good on clear and cloudy days and also during periods of non-advection and strong advection of sensible heat. The performance of the mass transport and resistance models was less satisfactory for estimation of fluxes of latent heat for short term periods. Both models tended to overestimate at low LE fluxes.

Blad, B. L.↗

A spinar model of Cygnus A

It is proposed that a gravitationally bound supermassive object is located in the 'core' of each of the Cyg A radio clouds and that these objects are responsible for the prolonged ejection of magnetic plasma which produces the synchrotron radio emission. The objects are considered to be analogous to the massive rotators, or spinars, which have been used to model the central radio and optical activity of quasars. The formation of Cyg A is described in terms of the breakup of such an object in the central optical galaxy, and the physical properties of both the compact and the giant clouds are discussed, including the effects of intergalactic drag. It is shown that the spinars are capable of effectively replenishing the extended radio clouds with relativistic electrons, even if they are embedded within the compact clouds. The spinars are modeled quantitatively, and their possible detection is considered. The requirements of the proposed model are compared with those of several other models for bright double radio galaxies.

Flasar, F. M.↗

Ion-induced nucleation in a binary mixture

Recent ion-induced nucleation studies in a binary mixture of H2O and H2SO4 vapors indicate that conventional classical nucleation theories cannot account for the experimentally observed ion-H2O-H2SO4 microcluster spectra. An empirical-analytical, semi-molecular theory of nucleation of a binary mixture of vapors on ions has been developed. This theory includes molecular approach to ion-induced changes in dielectric properties in the immediate neighborhood of an ion core as well as the size dependence of the surface tension of the microcluster. In addition to gaseous sulfuric acid and water molecules, the effect of ion-hydrates and sulfuric acid hydrates has also been considered. This theory is further simplified by using an empirical correction factor for the electrostatic term. This correction factor has been obtained by comparing the simplified model with the molecular dynamics calculations for selected ion hydrate formation. These two theoretical models are then compared with the classical theory for a variety of experimental conditions.

Smith, A. C.↗

Mathematical models for cochannel interference in FH/MFSK multiple-access systems

FH/MFSK has been proposed for a multiuser spread spectrum digital communication system to combat both self-jamming and intentional jamming. An independence assumption at the energy detector outputs is used to evaluate such a system for a digitized voice mobile radio system (Yue, 1981). This paper presents a correlated model and compares its performance to an independence model under the symbol error probability criterion. A Gaussian process model is also developed for comparison. It is found that the conventional Gaussian approximation is inadequate in predicting the number of users that can be accommodated by an FH/MFSK system using the conventional receiver. Furthermore, for the cases evaluated, the independence model provides an excellent approximation to the correlated model. Additionally, a conditional Chernoff bound is presented for the more general case of frequency-hopping systems with multiple hops per symbol.

Yan, T.-Y.↗

An experimental comparison of several current viscoplastic constitutive models at elevated temperature

Four current viscoplastic models are compared experimentally for Inconel 718 at 593 C. This material system responds with apparent negative strain rate sensitivity, undergoes cyclic work softening, and is susceptible to low cycle fatigue. A series of tests were performed to create a data base from which to evaluate material constants. A method to evaluate the constants is developed which draws on common assumptions for this type of material, recent advances by other researchers, and iterative techniques. A complex history test, not used in calculating the constants, is then used to compare the predictive capabilities of the models. The combination of exponentially based inelastic strain rate equations and dynamic recovery is shown to model this material system with the greatest success. The method of constant calculation developed was successfully applied to the complex material response encountered. Backstress measuring tests were found to be invaluable and to warrant further development.

James, G. H.↗

Nonlinear and distributed parameter models of the mini-mast truss

Large spacecraft such as Space Station Freedom employ large trusses in their construction. The structural dynamics of such trusses often exhibit nonlinear behavior and little damping which can impact significantly the performance of control systems. The Mini-MAST truss was constructed to research such structural dynamics and control systems. The Mini-MAST truss is an object of study for the guest investigator program as part of NASA's controls-structures interaction program. The Mini-MAST truss is deployable and about 65 ft long. Although the bending characteristics of the Mini-MAST truss are essentially linear, the angular deflection under torsional loading has exhibited significant hysteresis and nonlinear stiffness. It is the purpose to develop nonlinear and distributed parameter models of the truss and to compare the model dynamics with actual measurements. Distributed parameter models have the advantage of requiring fewer model parameters. A tangent function is used to describe the nonlinear stiffness in torsion, partly because of the convenience of its easily expressed inverse. Hysteretic slip elements are introduced and extended to a continuum to account for the observed hysteresis in torsion. The contribution of slipping to the structural damping is analyzed and found to be strongly dependent on the applied loads. Because of the many factors which affect the damping and stiffness in a truss, it is risky to assume linearity.

Taylor, Lawrence W., Jr.↗

The influence of buoyant forces and volume fraction of particles on the particle pushing/entrapment transition during directional solidification of Al/SiC and Al/graphite composites

Directional solidification experiments in a Bridgman-type furnace were used to study particle behavior at the liquid/solid interface in aluminum metal matrix composites. Graphite or silicon-carbide particles were first dispersed in aluminum-base alloys via a mechanically stirred vortex. Then, 100-mm-diameter and 120-mm-long samples were cast in steel dies and used for directional solidification. The processing variables controlled were the direction and velocity of solidification and the temperature gradient at the interface. The material variables monitored were the interface energy, the liquid/particle density difference, the particle/liquid thermal conductivity ratio, and the volume fraction of particles. These properties were changed by selecting combinations of particles (graphite or silicon carbide) and alloys (Al-Cu, Al-Mg, Al-Ni). A model which consideres process thermodynamics, process kinetics (including the role of buoyant forces), and thermophysical properties was developed. Based on solidification direction and velocity, and on materials properties, four types of behavior were predicted. Sessile drop experiments were also used to determine some of the interface energies required in calculation with the proposed model. Experimental results compared favorably with model predictions.

Stefanescu, Doru M.↗

dc modulation noise in thin film magnetic recording disk media

A study of dc modulation noise as a function of magnetic layer thickness has been conducted for plated longitudinal low-noise Co-alloy disk media with a range of 900 to 1100 Oe. The noise, produced by the application of a reverse longitudinal dc field to a uniformly magnetized disk, supplies data regarding the uniformity of the disk. A spectrum analyzer measures the noise by means of electronic detection, and noise spectra and autocorrelation functions calculated with a model are compared to the experimental results. The model correlates with experimental data to more than 0.99. The maximum distance between effective transitions diminishes from 2.8 microns to 1 micron when the thickness of the magnetic layer is increased from 25 nm to 60 nm. The maximum average transition amplitude is found to be independent of thickness, and is bounded by 0.001 of the saturation magnetization.

Katti, R. R.↗

Acoustic Treatment Design Scaling Methods: Numerical Simulation of the Nonlinear Acoustic Impedance of a Perforated Plate Single-Degree-of-Freedom Resonator Using a Time-Domain Finite Difference Method - Volume 4

Single-degree-of-freedom resonators consisting of honeycomb cells covered by perforated facesheets are widely used as acoustic noise suppression liners in aircraft engine ducts. The acoustic resistance and mass reactance of such liners are known to vary with the intensity of the sound incident upon the panel. Since the pressure drop across a perforated liner facesheet increases quadratically with the flow velocity through the facesheet, this is known as the nonlinear resistance effect. In the past, two different empirical frequency domain models have been used to predict the Sound Pressure Level effect of the incident wave on the perforated liner impedance, one that uses the incident particle velocity in isolated narrowbands, and one that models the particle velocity as the overall velocity. In the absence of grazing flow, neither frequency domain model is entirely accurate in predicting the nonlinear effect that is measured for typical perforated sheets. The time domain model is developed in an attempt to understand and improve the model for the effect of spectral shape and amplitude of multi-frequency incident sound pressure on the liner impedance. A computer code for the time-domain finite difference model is developed and predictions using the models are compared to current frequency-domain models.

Kraft, R. E.↗

A Comparison of Approximation Modeling Techniques: Polynomial Versus Interpolating Models

Two methods of creating approximation models are compared through the calculation of the modeling accuracy on test problems involving one, five, and ten independent variables. Here, the test problems are representative of the modeling challenges typically encountered in realistic engineering optimization problems. The first approximation model is a quadratic polynomial created using the method of least squares. This type of polynomial model has seen considerable use in recent engineering optimization studies due to its computational simplicity and ease of use. However, quadratic polynomial models may be of limited accuracy when the response data to be modeled have multiple local extrema. The second approximation model employs an interpolation scheme known as kriging developed in the fields of spatial statistics and geostatistics. This class of interpolating model has the flexibility to model response data with multiple local extrema. However, this flexibility is obtained at an increase in computational expense and a decrease in ease of use. The intent of this study is to provide an initial exploration of the accuracy and modeling capabilities of these two approximation methods.

Giunta, Anthony A.↗

Integrating National Space Visions

This paper examines value proposition assumptions for various models nations may use to justify, shape, and guide their space programs. Nations organize major societal investments like space programs to actualize national visions represented by leaders as investments in the public good. The paper defines nine 'vision drivers' that circumscribe the motivations evidently underpinning national space programs. It then describes 19 fundamental space activity objectives (eight extant and eleven prospective) that nations already do or could in the future use to actualize the visions they select. Finally the paper presents four contrasting models of engagement among nations, and compares these models to assess realistic pounds on the pace of human progress in space over the coming decades. The conclusion is that orthogonal engagement, albeit unlikely because it is unprecedented, would yield the most robust and rapid global progress.

space futures↗

The Characterization of Deep Convective Cloud Albedo as a Calibration Target Using MODIS Reflectances

There are over 25 years of historical satellite data available to climate analysis. The historical satellite data needs to be well calibrated, especially in the visible, where there is no onboard calibration on operational satellites. The key to the vicarious calibration of historical satellites relies on invariant targets, such as the moon, Dome C, and deserts. Deep convective clouds (DCC) also show promise of being a stable invariant or predictable target viewable by all satellites, since they behave as solar diffusers. However DCC have not been well characterized for calibration. Ten years of well-calibrated MODIS is now available. DCC can easily be identified using IR thresholds, where the IR calibration can be traced to the onboard black-bodies. The natural variability of DCC albedo will be analyzed geographically and seasonally, especially difference of convection initiated over land or ocean. Functionality between particle size and ozone absorption with DCC albedo will be examined. Although DCC clouds are nearly Lambertion, the angular distribution of reflectances will be sampled and compared with theoretical models. Both Aqua and Terra MODIS DCC angular models will be compared for consistency. Normalizing angular geostationary DCC reflectances, which were calibrated against MODIS, with SCIAMACHY spectral reflectances and comparing them to MODIS DCC reflectances will inspect the usage of DCC albedos as an absolute calibration target.

Doelling, David R.↗

A Robust Multi-Scale Modeling System for the Study of Cloud and Precipitation Processes

During the past decade, numerical weather and global non-hydrostatic models have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. These microphysical schemes affect the dynamic through the release of latent heat (buoyancy loading and pressure gradient) the radiation through the cloud coverage (vertical distribution of cloud species), and surface processes through rainfall (both amount and intensity). Recently, several major improvements of ice microphysical processes (or schemes) have been developed for cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble, GCE, model) and regional scale (Weather Research and Forecast, WRF) model. These improvements include an improved 3-ICE (cloud ice, snow and graupel) scheme (Lang et al. 2010); a 4-ICE (cloud ice, snow, graupel and hail) scheme and a spectral bin microphysics scheme and two different two-moment microphysics schemes. The performance of these schemes has been evaluated by using observational data from TRMM and other major field campaigns. In this talk, we will present the high-resolution (1 km) GeE and WRF model simulations and compared the simulated model results with observation from recent field campaigns [i.e., midlatitude continental spring season (MC3E; 2010), high latitude cold-season (C3VP, 2007; GCPEx, 2012), and tropical oceanic (TWP-ICE, 2006)].

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

The Role of Temperature and Humidity on Seasonal Influenza in Tropical Areas: Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama, 2008-2013

Background: The role of meteorological factors on influenza transmission in the tropics is less defined than in the temperate regions. We assessed the association between influenza activity and temperature, specific humidity and rainfall in 6 study areas that included 11 departments or provinces within 3 tropical Central American countries: Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama. Method/ Findings: Logistic regression was used to model the weekly proportion of laboratory-confirmed influenza positive samples during 2008 to 2013 (excluding pandemic year 2009). Meteorological data was obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite and the Global Land Data Assimilation System. We found that specific humidity was positively associated with influenza activity in El Salvador (Odds Ratio (OR) and 95% Confidence Interval of 1.18 (1.07-1.31) and 1.32 (1.08-1.63)) and Panama (OR = 1.44 (1.08-1.93) and 1.97 (1.34-2.93)), but negatively associated with influenza activity in Guatemala (OR = 0.72 (0.6-0.86) and 0.79 (0.69-0.91)). Temperature was negatively associated with influenza in El Salvador's west-central departments (OR = 0.80 (0.7-0.91)) whilst rainfall was positively associated with influenza in Guatemala's central departments (OR = 1.05 (1.01-1.09)) and Panama province (OR = 1.10 (1.05-1.14)). In 4 out of the 6 locations, specific humidity had the highest contribution to the model as compared to temperature and rainfall. The model performed best in estimating 2013 influenza activity in Panama and west-central El Salvador departments (correlation coefficients: 0.5-0.9). Conclusions/Significance: The findings highlighted the association between influenza activity and specific humidity in these 3 tropical countries. Positive association with humidity was found in El Salvador and Panama. Negative association was found in the more subtropical Guatemala, similar to temperate regions. Of all the study locations, Guatemala had annual mean temperature and specific humidity that were lower than the others.

Central America↗