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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Validation of Photovoltaic Modeling Tool HelioScope Against Measured Data

HelioScope is a cloud-based solar design software developed by Folsom Labs to model arrays based on physical design. Folsom Labs received a grant from the Department of Energy for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to validate the performance of HelioScope's simulation engine against measured PV system performance. This study builds upon previous validation work by NREL of multiple other PV modeling tools, using the same fixed-tilt systems with available system specifications. HelioScope designs were set up using the same system specifications and concurrent weather data as were used in previous studies. The predicted performance results from the simulations were compared with measured data and to performance predictions by other PV modeling tools.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Understanding and predicting profile structure and parametric scaling of intrinsic rotation

This study reports on a recent advance in developing physical understanding and a first-principles-based model for predicting intrinsic rotation profiles in magnetic fusion experiments. It is shown for the first time that turbulent fluctuation-driven residual stress (a non-diffusive component of momentum flux) along with diffusive momentum flux can account for both the shape and magnitude of the observed intrinsic toroidal rotation profile. Both the turbulence intensity gradient and zonal flow E×B shear are identified as major contributors to the generation of the k ∥ -asymmetry needed for the residual stress generation. The model predictions of core rotation based on global gyrokinetic simulations agree well with the experimental measurements of main ion toroidal rotation for a set of DIII-D ECH discharges. The validated model is further used to investigate the characteristic dependence of residual stress and intrinsic rotation profile structure on the multi-dimensional parametric space covering the turbulence type, q-profile structure, and up-down asymmetry in magnetic geometry with the goal of developing the physics understanding needed for rotation profile control and optimization. It is shown that in the flat-q profile regime, intrinsic rotations driven by ITG and TEM turbulence are in the opposite direction (i.e., intrinsic rotation reverses). The predictive model also produces reversed intrinsic rotation for plasmas with weak and normal shear q-profiles.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Chapter 10 - Remote Sensing Measurements of Aerosol Properties

Satellite instruments have proven especially capable at monitoring the quantity of airborne particles in columns of atmosphere, globally. This chapter describes the principles of satellite measurements and retrieval algorithms, and surveys current instruments and their capabilities. We outline the issues associated with retrieval algorithms, such as surface characterization and aerosol proximity to clouds, and the challenges with interpretation of the results. The relationship between measured aerosol properties and climate-relevant aerosol properties simulated in models is outlined, as well as how measurements are used to evaluate models. Most space-based aerosol instruments are passive sensors that measure reflected sunlight at multiple wavelengths, some at multiple viewing angles. A few are active sensors that send out their own laser light and measure the returned signal. Except when clouds are present, the excess amount of light scattered back to space, beyond that expected from the surface and atmospheric gas, is attributed to aerosol. Satellite measurements are used in many ways in aerosol research. They often provide the only method for monitoring hazardous phenomena such as major wildfire and volcanic eruption plumes, especially in remote areas. Stable, long-term, near-global-scale satellite data records make it possible to identify regional and global aerosol trends. Aerosol radiative effects on climate can be quantified on a near-global scale and used to estimate the strength of aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions as well as to evaluate climate model simulations of these interactions. Aerosol-type mapping from satellite imagery is helpful for source attribution, model validation, and to constrain particle light-absorption properties that are essential for radiative forcing calculations. The range of aerosol properties retrieved from satellite observations has grown considerably since the first global estimates of aerosol optical depth (τ a) over ocean were made in the late 1970s. Methods for retrieving particle size and light-absorption properties were explored in the 1990s using multispectral, multi-angle observations, and polarization in visible and near-infrared wavelengths. Sensitivity to particle light absorption, primarily from black or brown carbon content, improved with the inclusion of UV channels, and sensitivity to very thin aerosol layers in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere was advanced with the use of limb-sounding instruments and active sensors. There are limitations to every measurement technique, including satellite aerosol remote sensing. For wide-swath, passive instruments, aerosol retrievals near clouds can present substantial challenges as far as 15 km away due to cloud-scattered light contaminating the signal. In nearly all cases, retrievals over bright snow and ice surfaces are precluded because surface reflectance uncertainties can overwhelm the aerosol signal. Similarly, meteorological cloud is identified and masked out where possible. Data from passive sensors also lack vertical resolution except those that view toward the limb or where multi-angle imagery is acquired over plumes from wildfires, erupting volcanoes, and wind-blown dust. Yet, passive sensors provide vastly more coverage than the active instruments that mitigate these issues. Particle microphysical information is qualitative from all remote sensing techniques, relying on proxies to infer particle composition, hygroscopicity, and the amount of light-absorbing material. Further, particles smaller than about 200 nm diameter cannot be distinguished from atmospheric gas molecules with remote sensing, which hinders studies of cloud condensation nuclei and their effects on clouds. Most satellite instruments dedicated to aerosol observations are in low-Earth, near-polar, sun-synchronous orbits, which means they cross the equator at the same local time each day. Most are set on cycles that repeat approximately every 16 days, which makes it difficult to monitor aerosol evolution locally. Geostationary satellites make it possible to observe changes occurring from minutes to hours over regions up to 8000 km in size, but lack coverage of high latitudes, and often provide more limited constraints on aerosol properties. Ground-truth data are vital for satellite aerosol-retrieval validation. The AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) of sun photometers was created in 1993 and has become an established global network of over 350 instruments for validating satellite measurements. The network, as well as global networks of ground-based lidars, solar flux radiometers and other sun photometers, are widely used for evaluating global satellite retrievals and model simulations. NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) program beginning in 1999 led to improvements in reliability, spatial resolution, and spectral resolution (and hence, to improved particle size discrimination and light absorption properties). Satellite payloads include advanced broad-swath and multi-angle imagers, along with the first space-based active sensor focused largely on long-term aerosol monitoring. Since about 2002, Europe's SENTINEL and operational meteorological satellite fleets are also providing sustained aerosol observations, with planned continuation until at least 2030. Satellite remote sensing instruments offer valuable data for evaluating aerosol representations in global climate models. They have been used to assess aerosol optical and physical properties, trends and distributions, and are applied increasingly as direct model constraints in data assimilation to create global aerosol reanalysis products. Aerosol optical depth is the most common quantity adopted for routine model evaluation, including multiwavelength data to loosely constrain particle-size distributions. These evaluations of multiple models have revealed general biases in their regional aerosol amounts and seasonal patterns of transport and removal. Although satellite measurements have near-global coverage, substantial errors can be introduced into the model observation comparison unless attention is paid to spatial and temporal collocation, cloud screening, subgrid-scale variability, and measurement uncertainties that vary with retrieval conditions.

aerosol properties↗

Consistent Evaluation of ACOS-GOSAT, BESD-SCIAMACHY, CarbonTracker, and MACC Through Comparisons to TCCON

Consistent validation of satellite CO2 estimates is a prerequisite for using multiple satellite CO2 measurements for joint flux inversion, and for establishing an accurate long-term atmospheric CO2 data record. Harmonizing satellite CO2 measurements is particularly important since the differences in instruments, observing geometries, sampling strategies, etc. imbue different measurement characteristics in the various satellite CO2 data products. We focus on validating model and satellite observation attributes that impact flux estimates and CO2 assimilation, including accurate error estimates, correlated and random errors, overall biases, biases by season and latitude, the impact of coincidence criteria, validation of seasonal cycle phase and amplitude, yearly growth, and daily variability. We evaluate dry-air mole fraction (X(sub CO2)) for Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) (Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space, ACOS b3.5) and SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY) (Bremen Optimal Estimation DOAS, BESD v2.00.08) as well as the CarbonTracker (CT2013b) simulated CO2 mole fraction fields and the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) CO2 inversion system (v13.1) and compare these to Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) observations (GGG2012/2014). We find standard deviations of 0.9, 0.9, 1.7, and 2.1 parts per million vs. TCCON for CT2013b, MACC, GOSAT, and SCIAMACHY, respectively, with the single observation errors 1.9 and 0.9 times the predicted errors for GOSAT and SCIAMACHY, respectively. We quantify how satellite error drops with data averaging by interpreting according to (error(sup 2) equals a(sup 2) plus b(sup 2) divided by n (with n being the number of observations averaged, a the systematic (correlated) errors, and b the random (uncorrelated) errors). a and b are estimated by satellites, coincidence criteria, and hemisphere. Biases at individual stations have year-to-year variability of 0.3 parts per million, with biases larger than the TCCON predicted bias uncertainty of 0.4 parts per million at many stations. We find that GOSAT and CT2013b under-predict the seasonal cycle amplitude in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) between 46 and 53 degrees North latitude, MACC over-predicts between 26 and 37 degrees North latitude, and CT2013b under-predicts the seasonal cycle amplitude in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The seasonal cycle phase indicates whether a data set or model lags another data set in time. We find that the GOSAT measurements improve the seasonal cycle phase substantially over the prior while SCIAMACHY measurements improve the phase significantly for just two of seven sites. The models reproduce the measured seasonal cycle phase well except for at Lauder_125HR (CT2013b) and Darwin (MACC). We compare the variability within 1 day between TCCON and models in June-July-August; there is correlation between 0.2 and 0.8 in the NH, with models showing 10-50 percent the variability of TCCON at different stations and CT2013b showing more variability than MACC. This paper highlights findings that provide inputs to estimate flux errors in model assimilations, and places where models and satellites need further investigation, e.g., the SH for models and 45-67 degrees North latitude for GOSAT and CT2013b.

ACOS-GOSAT↗

The Impact of High-Resolution Sea Surface Temperatures on the Simulated Nocturnal Florida Marine Boundary Layer

High- and low-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) analysis products are used to initialize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model for May 2004 for short-term forecasts over Florida and surrounding waters. Initial and boundary conditions for the simulations were provided by a combination of observations, large-scale model output, and analysis products. The impact of using a 1-km Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) SST composite on subsequent evolution of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) is assessed through simulation comparisons and limited validation. Model results are presented for individual simulations, as well as for aggregates of easterly- and westerly-dominated low-level flows. The simulation comparisons show that the use of MODIS SST composites results in enhanced convergence zones. earlier and more intense horizontal convective rolls. and an increase in precipitation as well as a change in precipitation location. Validation of 10-m winds with buoys shows a slight improvement in wind speed. The most significant results of this study are that 1) vertical wind stress divergence and pressure gradient accelerations across the Florida Current region vary in importance as a function of flow direction and stability and 2) the warmer Florida Current in the MODIS product transports heat vertically and downwind of this heat source, modifying the thermal structure and the MABL wind field primarily through pressure gradient adjustments.

LaCasse, Katherine M.↗

Learning continuous models for continuous physics

Abstract Dynamical systems that evolve continuously over time are ubiquitous throughout science and engineering. Machine learning (ML) provides data-driven approaches to model and predict the dynamics of such systems. A core issue with this approach is that ML models are typically trained on discrete data, using ML methodologies that are not aware of underlying continuity properties. This results in models that often do not capture any underlying continuous dynamics—either of the system of interest, or indeed of any related system. To address this challenge, we develop a convergence test based on numerical analysis theory. Our test verifies whether a model has learned a function that accurately approximates an underlying continuous dynamics. Models that fail this test fail to capture relevant dynamics, rendering them of limited utility for many scientific prediction tasks; while models that pass this test enable both better interpolation and better extrapolation in multiple ways. Our results illustrate how principled numerical analysis methods can be coupled with existing ML training/testing methodologies to validate models for science and engineering applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

From deep TLS validation to ensembles of atomic models built from elemental motions. II. Analysis of TLS refinement results by explicit interpretation

TLS modelling was developed by Schomaker and Trueblood to describe atomic displacement parameters through concerted (rigid-body) harmonic motions of an atomic group [Schomaker & Trueblood (1968), Acta Cryst. B24, 63–76]. The results of a TLS refinement are T, L and S matrices that provide individual anisotropic atomic displacement parameters (ADPs) for all atoms belonging to the group. These ADPs can be calculated analytically using a formula that relates the elements of the TLS matrices to atomic parameters. Alternatively, ADPs can be obtained numerically from the parameters of concerted atomic motions corresponding to the TLS matrices. Both procedures are expected to produce the same ADP values and therefore can be used to assess the results of TLS refinement. Here, the implementation of this approach in PHENIX is described and several illustrations, including the use of all models from the PDB that have been subjected to TLS refinement, are provided.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Investigation of arterial gas occlusions

The effect of noncondensable gases on high-performance arterial heat pipes was investigated both analytically and experimentally. Models have been generated which characterize the dissolution of gases in condensate, and the diffusional loss of dissolved gases from condensate in arterial flow. These processes, and others, were used to postulate stability criteria for arterial heat pipes under isothermal and non-isothermal condensate flow conditions. A rigorous second-order gas-loaded heat pipe model, incorporating axial conduction and one-dimensional vapor transport, was produced and used for thermal and gas studies. A Freon-22 (CHCIF2) heat pipe was used with helium and xenon to validate modeling. With helium, experimental data compared well with theory. Unusual gas-control effects with xenon were attributed to high solubility.

Saaski, E. W.↗

A thermal-capillary mechanism for a growth rate limit in edge-defined film-fed growth of silicon sheets

Capillarity, acting to set the shape of the melt/gas interfaces, and heat transfer can interact to cause limits to steady-state growth of thin silicon sheets by the Edge-Defined Film-Fed Growth (EFG) method. A finite-element/Newton solution method for a two-dimensional thermal-capillary model of EFG is used to show that limiting values of pull rate exist beyond which steady-state growth is impossible. The pull rate limit is also predicted by a one-dimensional heat transfer model valid when the die sides and menisci are almost parallel and when the thermal conductivities of melt, crystal, and die are all equal. Both the one- and two-dimensional heat transfer models show that heat loss from the melt is dominated by conduction into the crystal and slow heat release to the ambient along the length of the ribbon. The limiting pull rate results from the reduced efficiency of conduction through the melt caused by the curvature of the meniscus which increases height of the die top above the level of the melt. Thermal-capillary limits are predicted for both positive and negative pressure differences across the meniscus.

Thomas, P. D.↗

The Contribution of CEOP Data to the Understanding and Modeling of Monsoon Systems

CEOP has contributed and will continue to provide integrated data sets from diverse platforms for better understanding of the water and energy cycles, and for validaintg models. In this talk, I will show examples of how CEOP has contributed to the formulation of a strategy for the study of the monsoon as a system. The CEOP data concept has led to the development of the CEOP Inter-Monsoon Studies (CIMS), which focuses on the identification of model bias, and improvement of model physics such as the diurnal and annual cycles. A multi-model validation project focusing on diurnal variability of the East Asian monsoon, and using CEOP reference site data, as well as CEOP integrated satellite data is now ongoing. Preliminary studies show that climate models have difficulties in simulating the diurnal signals of total rainfall, rainfall intensity and frequency of occurrence, which have different peak hours, depending on locations. Further more model diurnal cycle of rainfall in monsoon regions tend to lead the observed by about 2-3 hours. These model bias offer insight into lack of, or poor representation of, key components of the convective and stratiform rainfall. The CEOP data also stimulated studies to compare and contrasts monsoon variability in different parts of the world. It was found that seasonal wind reversal, orographic effects, monsoon depressions, meso-scale convective complexes, SST and land surface land influences are common features in all monsoon regions. Strong intraseasonal variability is present in all monsoon regions. While there is a clear demarcation of onset, breaks and withdrawal in the Asian and Australian monsoon region associated with climatological intraseasonal variabillity, it is less clear in the American and Africa monsoon regions. The examination of satellite and reference site data in monsoon has led to preliminary model experiments to study the impact of aerosol on monsoon variability. I will show examples of how the study of the dynamics of aerosol-water cycle interactions in the monsoon region, can be best achieved using the CEOP data and modeling strategy.

Lau, William K. M.↗

A novel machine learning based identification of potential adopter of rooftop solar photovoltaics

With the proliferation of rooftop solar photovoltaic installations, there is a need to proactively predict consumer potential for solar photovoltaic adoption, for improved electric utility planning and operation. Traditional analytical modeling approaches are limited to a few survey features and a larger part of the survey would remain untouched by the decision model. This article presents a novel, data-driven modeling approach that strategically prunes a large set of consumer profile features using a machine learning framework to train a model for predicting potential solar adoption. The approach utilizes the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree model through a Light Gradient Boosting framework that improves significantly over the poor prediction accuracy of the existing approaches. Model training using focal-loss based supervision is used to overcome the difficulty in identifying the potential adopters that is inherent in conventional data-driven models. In addition, to overcome possible data sparsity in a limited survey sample, a Generative Adversarial Network is presented to create synthetic user samples and its effectiveness on model performance is assessed. A Bayesian optimization approach is used to systematically arrive at the hyperparameters of the proposed model. Validation of the presented approach on a survey data collected by the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association in Virginia in 2018 demonstrates the excellent predictive capability of the machine learning based approach to modeling solar adoption reliably.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Effects of various parameters of different porous transport layers in proton exchange membrane water electrolysis

Porous transport layers (PTLs) play an important role in proton exchange membrane water electrolysis (PEMWE) cells. The PTL facilitates water and gas transport, as well as thermal and electrical conduction, and is required to sustain good contact with adjacent components. It is expected that using PTLs with variations in material properties such as structure, composition, thickness and wettability results in performance changes of the PEMWE. Here, a general mathematical PEMWE model is developed that separates and analyzes the contributions of ohmic, activation, diffusion and Nernst potentials. For model validation, three inherently different anode PTL structures (carbon paper, sintered titanium particles, and titanium felt) are operated over a range of conditions. Additionally, the effects of PTL wettability were used to verify the model using Polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) treated Toray papers with PTFE loading ranging from 0% to 20%. The modeling results of both PTFE treated and untreated materials show good agreement with the experimental data. Mass transport or diffusion loss is the primary reason for performance differences between PTFE treated and untreated PTLs. Sintered titanium PTLs with thicknesses above 1 mm suffer from up to 33% increased ohmic losses without indicating any obvious changes in activation and diffusion losses when compared to untreated PTLs. The losses of the cell increase when using PTFE treated Toray paper. Individual contributions are quantified and assigned to increased ohmic, activation, and diffusion losses. In conclusion, the proposed model offers insights into the overpotential contributions of a PEMWE. It is a useful tool for predicting performance of various PTL materials and can be applied for PTL development and optimization efforts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

FY-2018 FES Joint Research Target

Fusion alphas and injected energetic neutral particle beams provide an important source of heating and current drive in advanced tokamak operating scenarios and burning plasma regimes. Alfvén eigenmode instabilities can cause the redistribution or loss of fast ions and driven currents, as well as potentially decreasing fusion performance and leading to localized losses. Measured fast ion fluxes in DIII-D and NSTX-U plasmas with different levels of Alfvén eigenmode activity will be used to determine the threshold for significant fast ion transport, assess mechanisms and models for such transport, and quantify the impact on beam power deposition and current drive. Measurements will be compared with theoretical predictions, including quantitative fluctuation data and fast ion density, in order to validate models and improve understanding of underlying mechanisms. Model predictions will guide the development of attractive operating regimes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Some Basic GN&C Modeling-and-Design Gap Areas for Low-Gee Slosh: Comparisons to Powered Flight Slosh

Potential gaps between powered-flight slosh and near-zero-gee slosh modeling intuition ... - Extremely-basic items like inertia (which is a strong function of frequency and liquid depth) - Visualization of response – ability to form a physical picture via mechanical analog - Availability of frequency-domain design insight from open-loop plant - Sense for edge-of model-validity – how does it behave “at the edges” And some suggestions on how NASA can help

Guidance Navigation and Control Modeling and Desig↗

Data-driven emulation of modal aerosol microphysics via neural operator-based modeling

The complexity and the small characteristic scales of aerosol microphysical processes pose a big challenge for accurate and efficient Earth system simulations at regional and global scales. In this work, we construct and evaluate a surrogate model: the aerosol deep operator network (ADON), a physics-inspired dual-net architecture for emulating the aerosol microphysics parameterization suite in the version 2 of the Energy Earth System Model (E3SMv2). The current version of the surrogate model is trained on a dataset comprising 9.8 million samples obtained from a global E3SMv2 simulation with the horizontal resolution of about one degree under cloud-free conditions. Incorporating domain spatial and temporal coordinates, as well as principle components extracted from training data, the dual-net surrogate model effectively captures the intricate representations of aerosol and the relationship with atmospheric state variables, achieving an R-squared score over $$95.7\%$$ for all the lognormal aerosol modes in the extrapolated regime. The validated model provides feature importance of input variables and their impact on the predictive capacity of the surrogate model in relation to the E3SM. The computational cost of online inference time deployed on CPUs and GPUs with lower precisions highlights ADON’s efficiency and potential in robust predictive modeling for large-scale Earth system computations.

Bai, Zhe↗

Computational aspects of real-time simulation of rotary-wing aircraft

A study was conducted to determine the effects of degrading a rotating blade element rotor mathematical model suitable for real-time simulation of rotorcraft. Three methods of degradation were studied, reduction of number of blades, reduction of number of blade segments, and increasing the integration interval, which has the corresponding effect of increasing blade azimuthal advance angle. The three degradation methods were studied through static trim comparisons, total rotor force and moment comparisons, single blade force and moment comparisons over one complete revolution, and total vehicle dynamic response comparisons. Recommendations are made concerning model degradation which should serve as a guide for future users of this mathematical model, and in general, they are in order of minimum impact on model validity: (1) reduction of number of blade segments; (2) reduction of number of blades; and (3) increase of integration interval and azimuthal advance angle. Extreme limits are specified beyond which a different rotor mathematical model should be used.

Houck, J. A.↗

Multiple Scattering of Laser Pulses in Snow Over Ice: Modeling the Potential Bias in ICESat Altimetry

The primary goal of NASA's current ICESat and future ICESat2 missions is to map the altitude of the Earth's land ice with high accuracy using laser altimetry technology, and to measure sea ice freeboard. Ice however is a highly transparent optical medium with variable scattering and absorption properties. Moreover, it is often covered by a layer of snow with varying depth and optical properties largely dependent on its age. We describe a modeling framework for estimating the potential altimetry bias caused by multiple scattering in the layered medium. We use both a Monte Carlo technique and an analytical diffusion model valid for optically thick media. Our preliminary numerical results are consistent with estimates of the multiple scattering delay from laboratory measurements using snow harvested in Greenland, namely, a few cm. Planned refinements of the models are described.

Davis, A. B.↗

Human Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Architecture Study: Phase 3 Summary

Over the past four years, NASA has directed the Entry, Descent and Landing Architecture Study (EDLAS) team to evaluate candidate technologies to deliver human-scale vehicles (carrying 20t payloads) to a precise location on the surface of Mars. The study, which initially considered four candidate vehicles, narrowed the design space to focus on two vehicles in Phase 3, one low and one mid lift-to-drag vehicle. Key design challenges exist for both, and the purpose of the Phase 3 analysis was to identify specific technology investment areas and opportunities to mature the vehicle designs beyond simulations to include ground and flight tests. This paper summarizes the detailed analyses performed on the two vehicle configurations, including aerodynamic and propulsive interference effects during the powered flight phase, vehicle packaging, as well as outer mold line and parametric mass model upgrades. The analyses were used to update models in the vehicle performance simulations. The simulation results showing the impact of the Phase 3 analyses on vehicle performance are also presented. Finally, a summary of the technology investment recommendations, including opportunities to validate models using wind tunnel tests and evaluate technologies at the moon, are presented. This paper offers a systems level overview of the more detailed analysis that will be presented in this special session.

Alicia Dwyer Cianciolo↗