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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Subseasonal Representation and Predictability of North American Weather Regimes Using Cluster Analysis

Abstract This study focuses on assessing the representation and predictability of North American weather regimes, which are persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns, in a set of initialized subseasonal reforecasts created using the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). The k -means clustering was used to extract four key North American (10°–70°N, 150°–40°W) weather regimes within ERA5 reanalysis, which were used to interpret CESM2 subseasonal forecast performance. Results show that CESM2 can recreate the climatology of the four main North American weather regimes with skill but exhibits biases during later lead times with overoccurrence of the West Coast high regime and underoccurrence of the Greenland high and Alaskan ridge regimes. Overall, the West Coast high and Pacific trough regimes exhibited higher predictability within CESM2, partly related to El Niño. Despite biases, several reforecasts were skillful and exhibited high predictability during later lead times, which could be partly attributed to skillful representation of the atmosphere from the tropics to extratropics upstream of North America. The high predictability at the subseasonal time scale of these case-study examples was manifested as an “ensemble realignment,” in which most ensemble members agreed on a prediction despite ensemble trajectory dispersion during earlier lead times. Weather regimes were also shown to project distinct temperature and precipitation anomalies across North America that largely agree with observational products. This study further demonstrates that unsupervised learning methods can be used to uncover sources and limits of subseasonal predictability, along with systematic biases present in numerical prediction systems. Significance Statement North American weather regimes are large-scale atmospheric patterns that can persist for several days. Their skillful subseasonal (2 weeks or greater) prediction can provide valuable lead time to prepare for temperature and precipitation anomalies that can stress energy and water resources. The purpose of this study was to assess the climatological representation and subseasonal predictability of four key North American weather regimes using a research subseasonal prediction system and clustering analysis. We found that the Pacific trough and West Coast high regimes exhibited higher predictability than other regimes and that skillful representation of conditions across the tropics and extratropics can increase predictability during later lead times. Future work will quantify causal pathways associated with high predictability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

First-order quantum phase transitions: Test ground for emergent chaoticity, regularity and persisting symmetries

We present a comprehensive analysis of the emerging order and chaos and enduring symmetries, accompanying a generic (high-barrier) first-order quantum phase transition (QPT). The interacting boson model Hamiltonian employed, describes a QPT between spherical and deformed shapes, associated with its U(5) and SU(3) dynamical symmetry limits. A classical analysis of the intrinsic dynamics reveals a rich but simply-divided phase space structure with a Hénon–Heiles type of chaotic dynamics ascribed to the spherical minimum and a robustly regular dynamics ascribed to the deformed minimum. The simple pattern of mixed but well-separated dynamics persists in the coexistence region and traces the crossing of the two minima in the Landau potential. A quantum analysis discloses a number of regular low-energy U(5)-like multiplets in the spherical region, and regular SU(3)-like rotational bands extending to high energies and angular momenta, in the deformed region. These two kinds of regular subsets of states retain their identity amidst a complicated environment of other states and both occur in the coexistence region. A symmetry analysis of their wave functions shows that they are associated with partial U(5) dynamical symmetry (PDS) and SU(3) quasi-dynamical symmetry (QDS), respectively. The pattern of mixed but well-separated dynamics and the PDS or QDS characterization of the remaining regularity, appear to be robust throughout the QPT. Effects of kinetic collective rotational terms, which may disrupt this simple pattern, are considered.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The Effects of B/L-Dependent Heating on the Formation and Evolution of a Multi-Threaded Prominence

We have developed a comprehensive, multi-threaded, three-dimensional model of the plasma dynamics and energetics of a prominence and its overlying arcade (Luna et al. 2012). In this model, the basic magnetic structure is that of two interacting sheared arcades, while the cool condensations composing the prominence are formed by the well-studied thermal nonequilibrium mechanism. In a given filament-channel flux tube, the mass is evaporated from the chromosphere by heating localized near the footpoints, and condenses in the form of transient blobs or a persistent thread. Our previous studies of thermal nonequilibrium used steady or impulsive heating functions with no dependence on local physical. However, parametric active-region models with steady heating proportional to B/L, where B is the flux-tube magnetic field strength at each footpoint and L is the flux-tube length, yield the best agreement with observations (e.g., Schrijver et al. 2008). We have determined the effects of this active-region heating function on our model for the formation and evolution of prominence mass. We have also expanded the range of our computational domain to include more ofthe overlying arcade (the so-called "cavity") than in Luna et al. (2012), and have increased the number of selected flux tubes from 125 to 533. We will illustrate the time-dependent plasma behavior produced by the B/L heating function with synthetic images in several ALA passbands, and compare the resulting prominence properties with those predicted by our model with steady heating.

Karpen, Judith T.↗

Order and excitations in large-S kagomé-lattice antiferromagnets

In this work, we systematically investigate the ground-state and the spectral properties of antiferromagnets on a kagomé lattice with several common types of the planar anisotropy: XXZ, single-ion, and out-of-plane Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya. Our main focus is on the role of nonlinear, anharmonic terms, which are responsible for the quantum order-by-disorder effect and for the corresponding selection of the ground-state spin structure in many of these models. The XXZ and the single-ion anisotropy models exhibit a quantum phase transition between the q=0 and the $\sqrt{3}$ ×$\sqrt{3}$ states as a function of the anisotropy parameter, offering a rare example of the quantum order-by-disorder fluctuations favoring a ground state which is different from the one selected by thermal fluctuations. The nonlinear terms are also shown to be crucial for a very strong near-resonant decay phenomenon leading to the quasiparticle breakdown in the kagomé-lattice antiferromagnets whose spectra are featuring flat or weakly dispersive modes. The effect is shown to persist even in the limit of large spin values and should be common to other frustrated magnets with flat branches of excitations. Model calculations of the spectrum of the S=5/2 Fe-jarosite with Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya anisotropy provide a convincing and detailed characterization of the proposed scenario.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Contrastive Machine Learning with Gamma Spectroscopy Data Augmentations for Detecting Shielded Radiological Material Transfers

Data analysis techniques can be powerful tools for rapidly analyzing data and extracting information that can be used in a latent space for categorizing observations between classes of data. Machine learning models that exploit learned data relationships can address a variety of nuclear nonproliferation challenges like the detection and tracking of shielded radiological material transfers. The high resource cost of manually labeling radiation spectra is a hindrance to the rapid analysis of data collected from persistent monitoring and to the adoption of supervised machine learning methods that require large volumes of curated training data. Instead, contrastive self-supervised learning on unlabeled spectra can enhance models that are built on limited labeled radiation datasets. This work demonstrates that contrastive machine learning is an effective technique for leveraging unlabeled data in detecting and characterizing nuclear material transfers demonstrated on radiation measurements collected at an Oak Ridge National Laboratory testbed, where sodium iodide detectors measure gamma radiation emitted by material transfers between the High Flux Isotope Reactor and the Radiochemical Engineering Development Center. Label-invariant data augmentations tailored for gamma radiation detection physics are used on unlabeled spectra to contrastively train an encoder, learning a complex, embedded state space with self-supervision. A linear classifier is then trained on a limited set of labeled data to distinguish transfer spectra between byproducts and tracked nuclear material using representations from the contrastively trained encoder. The optimized hyperparameter model achieves a balanced accuracy score of 80.30%. Any given model—that is, a trained encoder and classifier—shows preferential treatment for specific subclasses of transfer types. Regardless of the classifier complexity, a supervised classifier using contrastively trained representations achieves higher accuracy than using spectra when trained and tested on limited labeled data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Persistent activation of DNA damage signaling in response to complex mixtures of PAHs in air particulate matter

Complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are present in air particulate matter (PM) and have been associated with many adverse human health effects including cancer and respiratory disease. However, due to their complexity, the risk of exposure to mixtures is difficult to estimate. In the present study the effects of binary mixtures of benzo[a]pyrene (BP) and dibenzo[a,l]pyrene (DBP) and complex mixtures of PAHs in urban air PM extracts on DNA damage signaling was investigated. Applying a statistical model to the data we observed a more than additive response for binary mixtures of BP and DBP on activation of DNA damage signaling. Persistent activation of checkpoint kinase 1 (Chk1) was observed at significantly lower BP equivalent concentrations in air PM extracts than BP alone. Activation of DNA damage signaling was also more persistent in air PM fractions containing PAHs with more than four aromatic rings suggesting larger PAHs contribute a greater risk to human health. Altogether our data suggests that human health risk assessment based on additivity such as toxicity equivalency factor scales may significantly underestimate the risk of exposure to complex mixtures of PAHs. The data confirms our previous findings with PAH-contaminated soil (Niziolek-Kierecka et al., 2012) and suggests a possible role for Chk1 Ser317 phosphorylation as a biological marker for future analyses of complex mixtures of PAHs. -- Highlights: ► Benzo[a]pyrene (BP), dibenzo[a,l]pyrene (DBP) and air PM PAH extracts were compared. ► Binary mixture of BP and DBP induced a more than additive DNA damage response. ► Air PM PAH extracts were more potent than toxicity equivalency factor estimates. ► Larger PAHs (> 4 rings) contribute more to the genotoxicity of PAHs in air PM. ► Chk1 is a sensitive marker for persistent activation of DNA damage signaling from PAH mixtures.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Coupled laboratory and field investigations resolve microbial interactions that underpin persistence in hydraulically fractured shales

Hydraulic fracturing is one of the industrial processes behind the surging natural gas output in the United States. This technology inadvertently creates an engineered microbial ecosystem thousands of meters below Earth’s surface. Here, we used laboratory reactors to perform manipulations of persisting shale microbial communities that are currently not feasible in field scenarios. Metaproteomic and metabolite findings from the laboratory were then corroborated using regression based modeling performed on metagenomic and metabolite data from more than 40 produced fluids from five hydraulically fractured shale wells. Collectively, our findings show that Halanaerobium, Geotoga, and Methanohalophilius strain abundances predict a significant fraction of nitrogen and carbon metabolites in the field. Our laboratory findings also exposed cryptic predatory, cooperative, and competitive interactions that impact microorganisms across fractured shales. Scaling these results from the laboratory to the field identified mechanisms underpinning biogeochemical reactions, yielding knowledge that can be harnessed to potentially increase energy yields and inform management practices in hydraulically fractured shales.

hydraulic fracturing, metaproteomics, methanogenes↗

Signatures of rare states and thermalization in a theory with confinement

There is a dichotomy in the nonequilibrium dynamics of quantum many-body systems. In the presence of integrability, expectation values of local operators equilibrate to values described by a generalized Gibbs ensemble, which retains extensive memory about the initial state of the system. On the other hand, in generic systems such expectation values relax to stationary values described by the thermal ensemble, fixed solely by the energy of the state. At the heart of understanding, this dichotomy is the eigenstate thermalization hypothesis (ETH): individual eigenstates in nonintegrable systems are thermal, in the sense that expectation values agree with the thermal prediction at a temperature set by the energy of the eigenstate. In systems where ETH is violated, thermalization can be avoided. Thus, establishing the range of validity of ETH is crucial in understanding whether a given quantum system thermalizes. Here, we study a simple model with confinement, the quantum Ising chain with a longitudinal field, in which ETH is violated. Despite an absence of integrability, there exist rare (nonthermal) states that persist far into the spectrum. These arise as a direct consequence of confinement: pairs of particles are confined, forming new “meson” excitations whose energy can be extensive in the system size. We show that such states are nonthermal in both the continuum and in the low-energy spectrum of the corresponding lattice model. Here, we highlight that the presence of such states within the spectrum has important consequences, with certain quenches leading to an absence of thermalization and local observables evolving anomalously.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Satellite Observation of El Nino Effects on Amazon Forest Phenology and Productivity

Climate variability may affect the functioning of Amazon moist tropical forests, and recent modeling analyses suggest that the carbon dynamics of the region vary interannually in response to precipitation and temperature anomalies. However, due to persistent orbital and atmospheric artifacts in the satellite record, remote sensing observations have not provided quantitative evidence that climate variation affects Amazon forest phenology or productivity, We developed a method to minimize and quantify non-biological artifacts in NOAA AVHRR satellite data, providing a record of estimated forest phenological variation from 1982-1993. The seasonal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) amplitude (a proxy for phenology) increased throughout much of the basin during El Nino periods when rainfall was anomalously low. Wetter La Nina episodes brought consistently smaller NDVI amplitudes. Using radiative transfer and terrestrial biogeochemical models driven by these satellite data, we estimate that canopy-energy absorption and net primary production of Amazon forests varied interannually by as much as 21% and 18%, respectively. These results provide large-scale observational evidence for interannual sensitivity to El Nino of plant phenology and carbon flux in Amazon forests.

Asner, Gregory P.↗

Impact of Seasonal Snow-Cover Change on the Observed and Simulated State of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer in a High-Altitude Mountain Valley

The structure and evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) under clear-sky fair weather conditions over mountainous terrain is dominated by the diurnal cycle of the surface energy balance and thus strongly depends on surface snow cover. We use data from three passive ground-based infrared spectrometers deployed in the East River Valley in Colorado's Rocky Mountains to investigate the response of the thermal ABL structure to changes in surface energy balance during the seasonal transition from low to high snow cover. Temperature profiles were retrieved from the infrared radiances using the optimal estimation physical retrieval Tropospheric Remotely Observed Profiling via Optimal Estimation. A nocturnal surface inversion formed in the valley during clear-sky days, which was subsequently mixed out during daytime with the development of a convective boundary layer when snow cover was low. Over high snow cover, a very shallow convective boundary layer formed, above which the inversion persisted through the daytime hours. We compare these observations to NOAA's operational High-Resolution-Rapid-Refresh model and find large warm biases on clear-sky days resulting from the model's inability to form strong nocturnal inversions and to maintain the stable stratification in the valley during daytime when there was snow on the ground. We suggest several factors contributing to the large model errors. These are (a) the inability of the model to represent well-developed thermally driven flows likely due to the too coarse horizontal grid spacing (3 km), (b) too much convective mixing during daytime, and (c) too strong vertical coupling between the valley atmosphere and the free troposphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

THE 2011 JUNE 23 STELLAR OCCULTATION BY PLUTO: AIRBORNE AND GROUND OBSERVATIONS

On 2011 June 23, stellar occultations by both Pluto (this work) and Charon (future analysis) were observed from numerous ground stations as well as the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA). This first airborne occultation observation since 1995 with the Kuiper Airborne Observatory resulted in the best occultation chords recorded for the event, in three visible wavelength bands. The data obtained from SOFIA are combined with chords obtained from the ground at the IRTF, the U.S. Naval Observatory Flagstaff Station, and Leeward Community College to give the detailed state of the Pluto-Charon system at the time of the event with a focus on Pluto's atmosphere. The data show a return to the distinct upper and lower atmospheric regions with a knee or kink in the light curve separating them as was observed in 1988, rather than the smoothly transitioning bowl-shaped light curves of recent years. The upper atmosphere is analyzed by fitting a model to all of the light curves, resulting in a half-light radius of 1288 {+-} 1 km. The lower atmosphere is analyzed using two different methods to provide results under the differing assumptions of particulate haze and a strong thermal gradient as causes for the lower atmospheric diminution of flux. These results are compared with those from past occultations to provide a picture of Pluto's evolving atmosphere. Regardless of which lower atmospheric structure is assumed, results indicate that this part of the atmosphere evolves on short timescales with results changing the light curve structures between 1988 and 2006, and then reverting these changes in 2011 though at significantly higher pressures. Throughout these changes, the upper atmosphere remains remarkably stable in structure, again except for the overall pressure changes. No evidence of onset of atmospheric collapse predicted by frost migration models is seen, and the atmosphere appears to be remaining at a stable pressure level, suggesting it should persist at this full level through New Horizon's flyby in 2015.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

LARGE-SCALE MAGNETIC FIELD GENERATION VIA THE KINETIC KELVIN-HELMHOLTZ INSTABILITY IN UNMAGNETIZED SCENARIOS

Collisionless plasma instabilities are fundamental in magnetic field generation in astrophysical scenarios, but their role has been addressed in scenarios where velocity shear is absent. In this work we show that velocity shears must be considered when studying realistic astrophysical scenarios, since these trigger the collisionless Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (KHI). We present the first self-consistent three-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations of the KHI in conditions relevant for unmagnetized relativistic outflows with velocity shear, such as active galactic nuclei and gamma-ray bursts. We show the generation of a strong large-scale DC magnetic field, which extends over the entire shear-surface, reaching thicknesses of a few tens of electron skin depths, and persisting on timescales much longer than the electron timescale. This DC magnetic field is not captured by magnetohydrodynamic models since it arises from intrinsically kinetic effects. Our results indicate that the KHI can generate intense magnetic fields yielding equipartition values up to {epsilon}{sub B}/{epsilon}{sub p} {approx_equal} 10{sup -3}-10{sup -2} in the electron timescale. The KHI-induced magnetic fields have a characteristic structure that will lead to a distinct radiation signature and can seed the turbulent dynamo amplification process. The dynamics of the KHI are relevant for non-thermal radiation modeling and can also have a strong impact on the formation of relativistic shocks in presence of velocity shears.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Permutation-adapted complete and independent basis for atomic cluster expansion descriptors

In many recent applications, particularly in the field of atom-centered descriptors for interatomic potentials, tensor products of spherical harmonics have been used to characterize complex atomic environments. When coupled with a radial basis, the atomic cluster expansion (ACE) basis is obtained. However, symmetrization with respect to both rotation and permutation results in an overcomplete set of ACE descriptors with linear dependencies occurring within blocks of functions corresponding to particular generalized Wigner symbols. All practical applications of ACE employ semi-numerical constructions to generate a complete, fully independent basis. While computationally tractable, the resultant basis cannot be expressed analytically, is susceptible to numerical instability, and thus has limited reproducibility. Here we present a procedure for generating explicit analytic expressions for a complete and independent set of ACE descriptors. The procedure uses a coupling scheme that is maximally symmetric w.r.t. permutation of the atoms, exposing the permutational symmetries of the generalized Wigner symbols, and yields a permutation-adapted rotationally and permutationally invariant basis (PA-RPI ACE). Theoretical support for the approach is presented, as well as numerical evidence of completeness and independence. A summary of explicit enumeration of PA-RPI functions up to rank 6 and polynomial degree 32 is provided. The PA-RPI blocks corresponding to particular generalized Wigner symbols may be either larger or smaller than the corresponding blocks in the simpler rotationally invariant basis. Finally, we demonstrate that basis functions of high polynomial degree persist under strong regularization, indicating the importance of not restricting the maximum degree of basis functions in ACE models a priori.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

RESIN: Responsible Innovation for Highly Recyclable Plastics - TASK 4: Risk Assessment Framework

This report covers the entirety of Task 4, but its main purpose is to deliver milestones ML4.4 and ML4.5, the last two SOPO milestones under Task 4. ML4.4 reports on the compatibility of polymer properties that affect both environmental performance and functional performance and the tradeoffs involved in turning these properties to the benefit of each. ML4.5 presents a complete set of information on the critical properties of benign target products, where benign products are defined as those with the shortest environmental lifetime which meet performance requirements. To support and provide context to the discussions of ML4.4 and ML4.5 and to provide a complete picture of Task 4, milestones 4.1-4.3 are briefly summarized at the beginning of the report. The discussion of ML4.4 introduces the notion of polymer persistence as a proxy for environmental risk. It then discusses the development and comparison of two machine leaning models explored for estimating polymer degradation rates, a random forest (RF) classifier and an RF regressor. Given the advantage of continuous outputs rather than simple classes, the RF regressor was incorporated in the Excel risk calculator, which to this point could implement the objectives of subtasks 4.1-4.3, estimating polymer release and redistribution. The ML4.4 discussion then addresses the effect of each of the three polymer features used by the RF regressor on polymer functional performance. These features are number molecular weight (Mn), glass transition temperature (T g ) and heat of fusion (H fus ). The discussion of ML4.5 reviews the conceptual framework of the risk model, which served as the foundation for developing the Excel risk calculator and describes the use of, and assumptions within, the calculator. Appendix A is further provided as a user’s guide for the calculator. To demonstrate how the calculator is intended to be used by developers in the design of low-risk polymers, an analysis of 27 hypothetical polymers defined by varying values for the three polymer features used by the RF regressor is presented. The range of parameter values selected produces estimates of polymer degradation rates and lifetimes that may be typical of various consumer products made from polyurethane polymers and shows how changes in polymer features affect lifetimes. The demonstration also predicts the final distribution of released polymer materials in environmental compartments as a function of consumer product mix and assumed leakage rates of end-of-life processes. Lastly, this report summarizes the achievement of Task 4 goals from original conception to final delivery and discusses how and to what degree to which each subtask goal was achieved.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Spacetime Foam, Midisuperspace, and the Cosmological Constant

Perhaps the cosmological constant really is huge at the Planck scale, but is “hidden” by Planck scale quantum fluctuations of spacetime. I briefly review this proposal and provide some evidence, coming from a simplified midisuperspace model, that an appropriate “foamy” structure can do the job of hiding a large cosmological constant, and can persist under time evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Some effects of surface anomalies in a global general circulation model.

The Mintz-Arakawa two-level general circulation model has been used in a series of experiments to compute the response of the atmosphere to certain persistent sea-surface temperature anomalies and to changes in the position of the continental Northern Hemisphere snow line over periods up to 90 days. Results are shown in terms of differences between anomaly and control histories are revealed by global, 30-day mean sea-level pressure maps, and time series of three regional indices of synoptic activity. The experiments show significant interhemispheric effects after about 1 month, phase shifts of 1 to 2 weeks in major cyclone developments, stronger reactions to sea-temperature anomalies in winter than in summer, and marked influence of the snow line on the winter monsoonal pressure difference between the continents and the North Atlantic Ocean.

Spar, J.↗

Nonlinear Alfven waves in high-speed solar wind streams

A nonlinear proton distribution function that is an exact stationary solution of the nonlinear Vlasov equation and Maxwell's equations and which supports a single nonlinear transverse Alfven (ion cyclotron) wave that is circularly polarized and nondispersive is proposed for most of the observations during high-speed solar wind streams. This nonlinear distribution removes the strong Alfven wave instability, inconsistent with the persistence of the observed proton distribution functions in high-speed streams, found by the linear stability analysis. Model temperature anisotropies and drift velocities of the two spatially inhomogeneous bi-Maxwellian components are consistent with typical proton velocity distributions measured in high-speed streams at 1 AU. Two derived relations for each of the wave number and the phase velocity of the wave are obeyed within experimental uncertainties by two typical proton measurements. Our model also predicts that the alpha particle bulk flow velocity exceeds the proton particle bulk flow velocity, as is observed.

Abraham-Shrauner, B.↗

A flare event in the peculiar giant FK Comae

Observations are presented of a very energetic flare event in the peculiar rapidly rotating star FK Comae. During this event on June 18th 1981 the usual asymmetrical double peaked H alpha emission feature with an equivalent width (EW) approx 3-4 A changed to a broad emission feature with EW approx 13 A. Sixteen spectra were obtained over 2 hours. Some changes in the emission profile are apparent on this time scale. The following night the enhanced emission persisted but at lower levels and it was substantially redshifted. This event is interpreted in terms of a model where material is injected into a disk co-rotating with the angular velocity of the stellar surface. A localized region of surface activity is conjectured to be the source of the event.

Ramsey, L. W.↗