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Quantum information or entanglement transfer between subsystems

The size of quantum information -- or entanglement -- transfer rates between subsystems is a generic question in problems ranging from decoherence in quantum computation and sensing, to quantum underpinnings of thermodynamics, to the behavior of quantum black holes. We investigate such rates for given couplings between subsystems, for sufficiently random subsystem evolution, and find evidence for a conjectured relation of these rates to the size of the couplings. Finally, this provides a direct connection between entanglement transfer and the microphysical couplings responsible for it.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Physics-informed neural networks for identification of material properties using standing waves

A metallic structure in its initial stage of failure involves plastic deformation or environmental degradation that changes the elastic modulus and density. This work presents the detection of change in wave velocity (a function of elastic modulus and density) as a system identification problem. A physics-informed neural network (PINN) is proposed to solve the system identification problem. The PINN takes the spatial coordinates of scanning locations and time as inputs and provides the displacement and wave velocity as outputs. The governing partial differential equation of standing waves in a rod is incorporated into the neural network as physics in the form of a loss function. The wave velocity vector is randomly initiated. During the training of the network, physics is used to determine and update the wave velocity target vector from the network’s displacement predictions. The measured data, comprising sparse displacement response on the rod structure, are used to train the PINN. The wave velocity at the sparse locations on the rod is learned from the predicted displacements during the training. Using the predictions of the trained network, the response of free vibration or material property variation can be reconstructed at unscanned locations on the structure to obtain high-resolution maps for full-field imaging to detect and localize the changes caused by plastic deformation. The PINN’s sparse scanning and simultaneous prediction capability during training can lead to high scanning and data-processing speeds. This capability yields a nondestructive evaluation system that can predict the presence of degraded material locations as the structural vibrations are scanned and processed in real time.

Rathod, Vivek↗

Wind Tunnel Investigation of the Supersonic Stage Separation Aerodynamics of a Generic 0.0175-Scale Bimese Two-Stage-to-Orbit Reusable Launch Vehicle Configuration

A wind tunnel investigation was conducted of the supersonic stage separation aerodynamics of a generic two-stage-to-orbit bimese wingbody configuration in the NASA Langley Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel. Proximity and isolated model testing was conducted at Mach numbers of 2.3, 3.0, and 4.5 and a unit Reynolds number of 2.0 million per foot using 0.0175-scale models of the Langley Glide-Back Booster concept designated as the orbiter and booster in belly-to-belly and back-to-belly configurations. Longitudinal forces and moments were obtained on both models and surface static pressure measurements were obtained on the orbiter model at 328 relative proximity locations and at relative angles of attack of 0 degrees and 5 degrees. The test results supported a larger effort to develop and validate experimental and computational tools applicable to the design and simulation of stage separation and abort procedures for reusable launch vehicles composed of multiple bodies, including winged bodies. An initial proof-of-concept experiment featuring low-cost uninstrumented models was conducted to verify an emerging automated model control system and new support system hardware, and to identify potential model and support system blockage and unsteady aerodynamics/model dynamics prior to committing to higher-fidelity instrumented models. This investigation led to upgrades in the facility stage separation hardware, calibration and testing techniques and capabilities, and data analysis and documentation methodologies that have been extended to the more recent NASA Constellation and Space Launch System crew and cargo launch vehicle programs. A virtual diagnostics interface methodology was used to facilitate the design of the stage separation support hardware, to position the models in the test section, and to define the experimental test space. Advances in the facility automated model positioning system established a foundation for the development of a continuous-sweep data acquisition technique that is responsible for significant productivity improvements to the current NASA Space Launch System test program. The automated model positioning capability was leveraged to conduct a companion statistically-designed stage separation experiment requiring randomization of the relative proximity positions of the orbiter and booster models. The respective zones of influence and interference effects of the orbiter and booster were identified from three-dimensional scatter plots, contour and influence maps, and two-dimensional plotting methods. The highly-nonlinear, shock-dominated aerodynamic characteristics of the orbiter and booster in the Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel exhibited good agreement with independent test data obtained in a NASA Marshall Space Flight Center wind tunnel and with computational fluid dynamics predictions using a compressible, three-dimensional flow solver and an inviscid, unstructured Cartesian method.

Erickson, Gary E.↗

An Evaluation of Timely Communications Access Methods Using NASA Space Network

There is a growing interest among scientists to coordinate diverse and temporally responsive measurements from multiple space and ground-based observatories in order to obtain greater insights into transient scientific events than would otherwise be possible. Many transient scientific events of interest occur randomly and the scientific value of follow-up observations decays with time. As a result, transient science operations among distributed observatories require timely access to communications network services. This paper develops two complimentary methods to improve users’ network access timeliness using the NASA Space Network (SN). Descriptive models of each method are developed using Systems Modeling Language. Pathfinder experiments are designed and executed. Suitability of the methods is discussed in light of the experimental results. Innovative applications of the methods are presented. This research establishes that the as-built SN systems have adequate capabilities and capacity to support infusion of the methods to current and future users with emergent time-sensitive service needs. The minimum service access wait time was determined to be approximately 10 min and is achievable 84% of the time. An average access wait time of approximately 14 min is expected when SN resource blocking occurs. A roadmap to improve SN access timeliness is presented.

Space Communications and Navigation↗

VMD fused radar--a hyper-volumetric ultra-low NAR sensor system

A system or method for a physical intrusion detection and assessment system is provided for determining a deliberate motion intrusion. The system includes first and second sensing device to sense physical data set within a predetermined space. A transducer module receives the first sensor physical data set and the second sensor physical data set and converts the first and second physical data sets into analog signals representative of the first and second physical data sets. A signal conditioning layer converts the first and second physical data analog signals to digital signals. A processor device correlates the first physical data set and the second physical data set and generates an alarm in response to identification of an intrusion in the space. A method and algorithms are applied to the data sets for determining whether a detected intrusion is associated with deliberate motion rather than random motion.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Systems and methods for designing new materials for superlubricity

A method for designing new materials for superlubricity comprises developing, on a computational system, a computational supercell comprising x unit cells of a base material, each unit cell comprising y atoms of the base material. The computational system replaces randomly chosen z atoms of the base material with an impurity atom of an impurity material to form a candidate material. The computational system determines volumetric strain of the candidate material. In response to the volumetric strain exceeding a predetermined threshold, the computational system determines that the candidate material has superlubricity. The computational system displays the candidate material to a user if the candidate material has superlubricity.

Narayanan, Badri↗

Response to Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus in Heifers Vaccinated with a Combination of Multivalent Modified Live and Inactivated Viral Vaccines

Bovine viral vaccines contain both live or inactivated/killed formulations, but few studies have evaluated the impact of vaccinating with either live or killed antigens and re-vaccinating with the reciprocal. Commercial dairy heifers were utilized for the study and randomly assigned to three treatment groups. Treatment groups received a commercially available modified-live viral (MLV) vaccine containing BVDV and were revaccinated with a commercially available killed viral (KV) vaccine containing BVDV, another group received the same KV vaccine and was revaccinated with the same MLV vaccine, and yet another group served as negative controls and did not receive any viral vaccines. Heifers in KV/MLV had higher virus neutralizing titers (VNT) at the end of the vaccination period than heifers in MLV/KV and control groups. The frequency of IFN-γ mRNA positive CD4+, CD8+, and CD335+ populations, as well as increased mean fluorescent intensity of CD25+ cells was increased for the MLV/KV heifers as compared to KV/MLV and controls. The data from this study would suggest that differences in initial antigen presentation such as live versus killed could augment CMI and humoral responses and could be useful in determining vaccination programs for optimizing protective responses, which is critical for promoting lifetime immunity.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Validation of Force Limited Vibration Testing at NASA Langley Research Center

Vibration tests were performed to develop and validate the forced limited vibration testing capability at the NASA Langley Research Center. The force limited vibration test technique has been utilized at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and other NASA centers to provide more realistic vibration test environments for aerospace flight hardware. In standard random vibration tests, the payload is mounted to a rigid fixture and the interface acceleration is controlled to a specified level based on a conservative estimate of the expected flight environment. In force limited vibration tests, both the acceleration and force are controlled at the mounting interface to compensate for differences between the flexible flight mounting and rigid test fixture. This minimizes the over test at the payload natural frequencies and results in more realistic forces being transmitted at the mounting interface. Force and acceleration response data was provided by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center for a test article that was flown in 1998 on a Black Brant sounding rocket. The measured flight interface acceleration data was used as the reference acceleration spectrum. Using this acceleration spectrum, three analytical methods were used to estimate the force limits. Standard random and force limited vibration tests were performed and the results are compared with the flight data.

Rice, Chad↗

PET/CT in brachytherapy early response evaluation of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma xenografts: comparison with apparent diffusion coefficient from diffusion-weighted MR imaging

Objective: To evaluate the feasibility of using PET/CT and diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DW-MRI) to monitor the early response of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) xenografts to brachytherapy, and to determine whether maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) correlate with apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC). Materials and Methods: SW1990 human PDAC were subcutaneously implanted in 20 nude mice. They were randomly divided into 125-Iodine ({sup 125}I) seeds and blank seeds group. PET/CT and DW-MRI were performed at pretreatment and 5 days after therapy. SUVmax and ADC values were calculated, respectively. The correlation between SUVmax and ADC values was analyzed by the Pearson correlation test. Results: The SUVmax were significantly decreased between pretreatment and 5 days after {sup 125}I seeds treatment (p < 0.001) and between two groups (p < 0.001). And the ADC values were significantly increased between pretreatment and 5 days after {sup 125}I seeds treatment (p < 0.001) and between two groups (p < 0.001). While in the bank seeds group, there were no significantly difference between pretreatment and after treatment in SUVmax and ADC values (p = 0.057; p = 0.397). SUVmax and ADC correlated significantly and negatively before treatment in both groups (r = − 0.964, R{sup 2} = 0.929, p < 0.001; r = − 0.917, R{sup 2} = 0.841, p < 0.001) and after treatment in the blank seeds group (r = − 0.944, R{sup 2} = 0.891, p < 0.001). But after {sup 125}I seeds treatment there was no significant correlation between SUVmax and ADC (r = − 0.388, R{sup 2} = 0.151, p = 0.268). Conclusion: The PET/CT and DW-MRI are capable of monitoring the early response of PDAC xenografts to brachytherapy. The significantly inverse correlation between pretreatment SUVmax and ADC suggests that PET/CT and DW-MRI might play complementary roles for therapy assessment.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Photoluminescence Intensity Fluctuations and Temperature-Dependent Decay Dynamics of Individual Carbon Nanotube sp 3 Defects

Recent demonstration of room temperature, telecommunication wavelength single photon generation by sp 3 defects of single wall carbon nanotubes established these defects as a new class of quantum materials. However, their practical utilization in development of quantum light sources calls for a significant improvement in their imperfect quantum yield (QY~10–30%). PL intensity fluctuations observed with some defects also need to be eliminated. Aiming toward attaining fundamental understanding necessary for addressing these critical issues, we investigate PL intensity fluctuation and PL decay dynamics of aryl sp 3 defects of (6,5), (7,5), and (10,3) single wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) at temperatures ranging from 300 to 4 K. By correlating defect-state PL intensity fluctuations with change (or lack of change) in PL decay dynamics, we identified random variations in the trapping efficiency of E 11 band-edge excitons (likely resulting from the existence of a fluctuating potential barrier in the vicinity of the defect) as the mechanism mainly responsible for the defect PL intensity fluctuations. Furthermore, by analyzing the temperature dependence of PL intensity and decay dynamics of individual defects based on a kinetic model involving the trapping and detrapping of excitons by optically allowed and forbidden (bright and dark) defect states, we estimate the height of the potential barrier to be in the 3–22 meV range. Our analysis also provides further confirmation of recent DFT simulation results that the emissive sp 3 defect state is accompanied by an energetically higher-lying optically forbidden (dark) exciton state.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Quantum interferometry and pathway selectivity in the nonlinear response of photosynthetic excitons

We propose a time–frequency resolved spectroscopic technique which employs nonlinear interferometers to study exciton–exciton scattering in molecular aggregates. A higher degree of control over the contributing Liouville pathways is obtained as compared to classical light. We show how the nonlinear response can be isolated from the orders-of-magnitude stronger linear background by either phase matching or polarization filtering. Both arise due to averaging the signal over a large number of noninteracting, randomly oriented molecules. We apply our technique to the Frenkel exciton model which excludes charge separation for the photosystem II reaction center. We show how the sum of the entangled photon frequencies can be used to select two-exciton resonances, while their delay times reveal the single-exciton levels involved in the optical process.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Synthesis of Post-fire Monitoring Activities in the Great Basin Desert, Mojave Desert, and Transition Zones

In the deserts of the American Southwest, fire return intervals of centuries to millennia are being replaced by fire return intervals of decades. This increased burn frequency has implications for post-closure management and long-term stewardship for Soils Corrective Action Units (CAUs) and Corrective Action Sites (CASs) on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), Tonopah Test Range, and Nevada Test and Training Range for which the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Environmental Management-Nevada (EM-NV) is responsible. For many CAUs and CASs, where closure-in-place alternatives were implemented or are being considered, there is a chance that these sites could burn over while they still pose a risk to the environment or human health given the long half-lives of some of the radionuclide contaminants of concern (COCs) (Shafer et al., 2007; Shafer and Gomes, 2009). Although it would have been ideal to conduct a fire-related study at a radionuclide contaminated site on the NNSS to determine how contaminated soils are transported post-fire, it was more practical to examine fires in environments analogous to where Soils Activity CAUs and CASs exist. Therefore, a series of studies were initiated at three radiologically uncontaminated analog sites to better understand the possible effects of wildfire on erosion and sediment transport by wind and water should vegetation at contaminated sites burn at the NNSS. The studies took place at the sites of the Gleason Fire, a prescribed burn that occurred near Ely, Nevada, which is in the Great Basin ecoregion; the White Rock Fire that occurred near Mesquite, Nevada, which is in the Mojave Desert ecoregion; and the Jacob Fire that occurred near Hiko, Nevada, in the transitional zone between the Great Basin Desert and the Mojave Desert. Each site was representative of one of the three ecoregions found on the NNSS. Erosion and vegetation characteristics were measured multiple times post-fire on both burned and unburned test plots at these study sites to compare and monitor the effects of fire over time. However, at the Mojave Desert site, there was an additional burn from nearly 25 years ago that was also compared with the more recent burned areas from 2013. Also, the time elapsed after the fire and the time when sampling began differed among the ecoregions. For example, at the Great Basin site, samples were collected prior to the fire and less than one month after the fire, whereas data collected at the Mojave Desert site did not occur until 22 months after the fire. The differences between the sample measurements and the time that elapsed after the fire may contribute to the variability in the data and the interpretations of the data. Runoff and water erosion were quantified through a series of rainfall and runoff simulation tests in which controlled amounts of water were delivered to the soil surface. Runoff data were collected from different microhabitats (e.g., undercanopies, interspace soils, ridges, and drainage areas). The data showed soil hydrophobicity (i.e., water repellency) on the Great Basin site for up to 12 months after the fire. The soil structure remained changed and weaker on the burned areas compared with the unburned areas for the three-year study period. Although runoff data at both the Great Basin site and transition zone site were highly variable, the post-fire runoff potential did not generally increase at either location after three years of monitoring. Mojave runoff did not differ much between fire ages or between burned and unburned areas, possibly because of the amount of vegetation growing on all three surfaces and because the fire intensity was likely lower relative to other ecoregions due to the amount of space between plants. Additionally, the measurements conducted on the Mojave fire occurred several years after the fire had burned and not within several months of the burn, which may also account for the lack of differences in runoff between burned and unburned locations. Wind erosion was assessed and quantified with a Portable In-Situ Wind ERosion Lab (PI-SWERL) on both the burned and unburned soils of different microhabitats (e.g., ridges, drainages, interspaces between plants, and plant undercanopies). Estimates of emissions (e.g., particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than or equal to 10 micrometers, or PM10) at different wind speeds were collected and filter samples were analyzed for chemical composition. The measurements among the fires were similar and the results of the wind erosion measurements indicate that there were seasonal influences on many parameters, but the potential for PM10 windblown dust emissions was higher on burned areas compared with unburned areas. Among the burned areas, drainages produced the most dust emissions, whereas burned ridges were the least emissive. Emissions at the Mojave site and transition zone site were similar between burned and unburned areas approximately three years after the respective fires. Emissions remained much greater on burned soils at the Great Basin site. However, site selection may have also contributed to the differences of emissions among the three study locations. Post-fire vegetation responses were documented for three years following each fire in different microhabitats (e.g., ridge, drainage, undercanopy, and interspace) at the Great Basin and transition zone sites. In 2013, at the Mojave fire site, random permanent plots were established in newly burned areas, areas that burned approximately 25 years ago, and an unburned control area. At each fire site, the regeneration of native plant species dominated the burned areas, but invasive annual grasses were present at each fire site. During the course of each three-year study, the invasive annual grasses increased in density or percentage at both the Great Basin and transition fire sites but not at the Mojave site, where annual invasive grasses remained high throughout the study period. However, the chronosequence data from the Mojave site indicate a transition to different invasive grass species with time. The post-burn vegetation at all three ecoregions is still in the early stages of succession, and shrub size should increase over time and shrub density should decrease over time. However, the recovery of the plant communities to pre-burn compositions may not occur for decades or centuries, or may not occur because of changes in climate and the presence of invasive annual grasses. Results from the three study locations suggested that contaminated soils on the NNSS that experienced wildfire had the potential for soil erosion and transport of contaminated soils. Both wind and soil runoff studies indicated that locations in the Great Basin and transition zone ecoregions were more susceptible to erosion than the Mojave Desert ecoregion, but the highest levels of erosion occurred during the early portions of the study (the first 24 months) and the Mojave Desert was not measured until 22 months after the burn. Additionally, data from the Great Basin indicated deeper soils may increase susceptibility to wind erosion. Historically, the Great Basin and transition zone ecoregions burned more frequently than the Mojave Desert because of fuel abundance and connectivity—and they continue to burn more frequently, particularly after the introduction of invasive grasses (Davies and Nafus, 2013). However, both ecoregions and the transition zone have burned with extensive, high-severity fires when certain weather and fuel conditions are met. For example, the high abundance and productivity of annual grasses and forbs—which are usually produced by above average winter precipitation—combined with early spring and summer warm, dry conditions. Future climate scenarios predict increased temperatures, variable to reduced precipitation, and larger, more extreme wildfires throughout western North America. These predictions suggest that future fires on the NNSS could increase in frequency, intensity, and severity similar to their analog ecosystems throughout the Great Basin and Mojave Desert (Dennison et al., 2014; Abatzoglou andWilliams, 2016; Westerling, 2016).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Artificial neural network implementation of a near-ideal error prediction controller

A theory has been developed at the University of Virginia which explains the effects of including an ideal predictor in the forward loop of a linear error-sampled system. It has been shown that the presence of this ideal predictor tends to stabilize the class of systems considered. A prediction controller is merely a system which anticipates a signal or part of a signal before it actually occurs. It is understood that an exact prediction controller is physically unrealizable. However, in systems where the input tends to be repetitive or limited, (i.e., not random) near ideal prediction is possible. In order for the controller to act as a stability compensator, the predictor must be designed in a way that allows it to learn the expected error response of the system. In this way, an unstable system will become stable by including the predicted error in the system transfer function. Previous and current prediction controller include pattern recognition developments and fast-time simulation which are applicable to the analysis of linear sampled data type systems. The use of pattern recognition techniques, along with a template matching scheme, has been proposed as one realizable type of near-ideal prediction. Since many, if not most, systems are repeatedly subjected to similar inputs, it was proposed that an adaptive mechanism be used to 'learn' the correct predicted error response. Once the system has learned the response of all the expected inputs, it is necessary only to recognize the type of input with a template matching mechanism and then to use the correct predicted error to drive the system. Suggested here is an alternate approach to the realization of a near-ideal error prediction controller, one designed using Neural Networks. Neural Networks are good at recognizing patterns such as system responses, and the back-propagation architecture makes use of a template matching scheme. In using this type of error prediction, it is assumed that the system error responses be known for a particular input and modeled plant. These responses are used in the error prediction controller. An analysis was done on the general dynamic behavior that results from including a digital error predictor in a control loop and these were compared to those including the near-ideal Neural Network error predictor. This analysis was done for a second and third order system.

Mcvey, Eugene S.↗

Taguchi method of experimental design in materials education

Some of the advantages and disadvantages of the Taguchi Method of experimental design as applied to Materials Science will be discussed. This is a fractional factorial method that employs the minimum number of experimental trials for the information obtained. The analysis is also very simple to use and teach, which is quite advantageous in the classroom. In addition, the Taguchi loss function can be easily incorporated to emphasize that improvements in reproducibility are often at least as important as optimization of the response. The disadvantages of the Taguchi Method include the fact that factor interactions are normally not accounted for, there are zero degrees of freedom if all of the possible factors are used, and randomization is normally not used to prevent environmental biasing. In spite of these disadvantages it is felt that the Taguchi Method is extremely useful for both teaching experimental design and as a research tool, as will be shown with a number of brief examples.

Weiser, Martin W.↗

Techniques for Improving Pilot Recovery from System Failures

This project examined the application of intelligent cockpit systems to aid air transport pilots at the tasks of reacting to in-flight system failures and of planning and then following a safe four dimensional trajectory to the runway threshold during emergencies. Two studies were conducted. The first examined pilot performance with a prototype awareness/alerting system in reacting to on-board system failures. In a full-motion, high-fidelity simulator, Army helicopter pilots were asked to fly a mission during which, without warning or briefing, 14 different failures were triggered at random times. Results suggest that the amount of information pilots require from such diagnostic systems is strongly dependent on their training; for failures they are commonly trained to react to with a procedural response, they needed only an indication of which failure to follow, while for 'un-trained' failures, they benefited from more intelligent and informative systems. Pilots were also found to over-rely on the system in conditions were it provided false or mis-leading information. In the second study, a proof-of-concept system was designed suitable for helping pilots replan their flights in emergency situations for quick, safe trajectory generation. This system is described in this report, including: the use of embedded fast-time simulation to predict the trajectory defined by a series of discrete actions; the models of aircraft and pilot dynamics required by the system; and the pilot interface. Then, results of a flight simulator evaluation with airline pilots are detailed. In 6 of 72 simulator runs, pilots were not able to establish a stable flight path on localizer and glideslope, suggesting a need for cockpit aids. However, results also suggest that, to be operationally feasible, such an aid must be capable of suggesting safe trajectories to the pilot; an aid that only verified plans entered by the pilot was found to have significantly detrimental effects on performance and pilot workload. Results also highlight that the trajectories suggested by the aid must capture the context of the emergency; for example, in some emergencies pilots were willing to violate flight envelope limits to reduce time in flight - in other emergencies the opposite was found.

Pritchett, Amy R.↗

Discrete Gust Model for Launch Vehicle Assessments

Analysis of spacecraft vehicle responses to atmospheric wind gusts during flight is important in the establishment of vehicle design structural requirements and operational capability. Typically, wind gust models can be either a spectral type determined by a random process having a wide range of wavelengths, or a discrete type having a single gust of predetermined magnitude and shape. Classical discrete models used by NASA during the Apollo and Space Shuttle Programs included a 9 m/sec quasi-square-wave gust with variable wavelength from 60 to 300 m. A later study derived discrete gust from a military specification (MIL-SPEC) document that used a "1-cosine" shape. The MIL-SPEC document contains a curve of non-dimensional gust magnitude as a function of non-dimensional gust half-wavelength based on the Dryden spectral model, but fails to list the equation necessary to reproduce the curve. Therefore, previous studies could only estimate a value of gust magnitude from the curve, or attempt to fit a function to it. This paper presents the development of the MIL-SPEC curve, and provides the necessary information to calculate discrete gust magnitudes as a function of both gust half-wavelength and the desired probability level of exceeding a specified gust magnitude.

Leahy, Frank B.↗

Sky Localization of Complete Inspiral-Merger-Ringdown Signals for Nonspinning Black Hole Binaries with LISA

We investigate the capability of LISA to measure the sky position of equal-mass, nonspinning black hole binaries, including for the first time the entire inspiral-merger-ringdown signal, the effect of the LISA orbits, and the complete three-channel LISA response. For an ensemble of systems near the peak of LISA's sensitivity band, with total rest mass of 2 x l0(exp 6) Stellar Mass at a redshift of z = 1 with random orientations and sky positions, we find median sky localization errors of approximately approx. 3 arcminutes. This is comparable to the field of view of powerful electromagnetic telescopes, such as the James Webb Space Telescope, that could be used to search for electromagnetic signals associated with merging black holes. We investigate the way in which parameter errors decrease with measurement time, focusing specifically on the additional information provided during the merger-ringdown segment of the signal. We find that this information improves all parameter estimates directly, rather than through diminishing correlations with any subset of well-determined parameters.

McWilliams, Sean T.↗

Do Better Satellite Precipitation Algorithms Improve Landslide Hazard Assessment?

Satellites make it possible to estimate precipitation in near real time. Given the challenges of achieving global coverage by other means, these data are used widely. However, few systems for landslide hazard assessment rely on satellite precipitation estimates. This could be due in part to perceptions of accuracy, although latency, spatial resolution, and other factors may also be important. We test whether recent changes to data streams from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission (GPM) have improved its potential for use in landslide prediction. Specifically, we examine data produced by the Integrated Multi-satellitERetrievals for the GPM (IMERG) algorithm, which was upgraded to version 7 this year. IMERG relies upon other algorithms, including the Goddard Profiling Algorithm (GPROF) and the GPM Combined Radar-Radiometer Algorithm (CORRA). Many changes have been made during the switch from IMERG version 6 to version 7. These include upgrading CORRA and GPROF to version 7, to improve the accuracy of precipitation in frozen, mountainous, and coastal areas. The measured intensity of some storms has been enhanced with a new algorithm, the Scheme for Histogram Adjustment with Ranked Precipitation Estimates in the Neighborhood. Combined with many others, these changes to IMERG should improve its utility for landslide hazard assessment in a variety of contexts. To test this idea, we retrain the global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model twice—first with data from IMERG version 6B and second with 7B. Since current daily rainfall is the most important variable in determining outcomes predicted by LHASA, it should reflect changes made to that input. First, we grid the landslides at a daily, thirty-arcsecond resolution. This serves as the response variable. At each of these sites current and antecedent rainfall are extracted, along with antecedent snow mass and soil moisture, slope, and PGA. In addition, one million grid cells are selected at random points to represent conditions under which landslides (probably) do not occur. After merging these data, we hold back 20% of the dataset for validation purposes and train a machine-learning model with the rest. We assess both the model’s overall ability to identify landslides and its ability to predict specific large landslide disasters.

Thomas A Stanley↗