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Background Error Covariance Estimation Using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation

An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory.SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

Error Covariance↗

Background Error Covariance Estimation using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation into the GEOS-5 Coupled Model

An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

Data Assimilation↗

Total Lightning Characteristics with Respect to Radar-Derived Mesocyclone Strength

Recent work investigating the microphysical and kinematic relationship between a storm's updraft, its total lightning production, and manifestations of severe weather has resulted in development of tools for improved nowcasting of storm intensity. The total lightning jump algorithm, which identifies rapid increases in total lightning flash rate that often precede severe events, has shown particular potential to benefit warning operations. Maximizing this capability of total lightning and its operational implementation via the lightning jump may best be done through its fusion with radar and radar‐derived intensity metrics. Identification of a mesocyclone, or quasi‐steady rotating updraft, in Doppler velocity is the predominant radar‐inferred early indicator of severe potential in a convective storm. Fused lightning‐radar tools that capitalize on the most robust intensity indicators would allow enhanced situational awareness for increased warning confidence. A foundational step toward such tools comes from a better understanding of the updraft‐centric relationship between intensification of total lightning production and mesocyclone development and strength. The work presented here utilizes a sample of supercell case studies representing a spectrum of severity. These storms are analyzed with respect to total lightning flash rate and the lightning jump alongside mesocyclone strength derived objectively from the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) Mesocyclone Detection Algorithm (MDA) and maximum azimuthal shear through a layer. Early results indicate that temporal similarities exist in the trends between total lightning flash rate and low‐ to mid‐level rotation in supercells. Other characteristics such as polarimetric signatures of rotation, flash size, and cloud‐to‐ground flash ratio are explored for added insight into the significance of these trends with respect to the updraft and related processes of severe weather production.

Stough, Sarah M.↗

Application of Remote Sensing to Assess the Impact of Short Term Climate Variability on Coastal Sedimentation

The University of Wisconsin and Louisiana State University have teamed to study the forcing of winter season cold frontal wind systems on sediment distribution patterns and geomorphology in the Louisiana coastal zone. Wind systems associated with cold fronts have been shown to modify coastal circulation and resuspend sediments along the microtidal Louisiana coast. The assessment includes quantifying the influence of cumulative winter season atmospheric forcing (through surface wind observations) from year to year in response to short term climate variability, such as El Nino events. A correlation between winter cyclone frequency and the strength of El Nino events has been suggested. The atmospheric forcing data are being correlated to geomorphic measurements along western Louisiana's prograding muddy coast. Remote sensing data is being used to map and track sediment distribution patterns for various wind conditions. Transferring a suspended sediment concentration (SSC) algorithm to EOS MODIS observations will enable estimates of SSC in case 2 waters over the global domain. Progress in Year 1 of this study has included data collection and analysis of wind observations for atmospheric forcing characterization, a field activity (TX-2001) to collect in situ water samples with co-incident remote sensing measurements from the NASA ER-2 based MODIS Airborne Simulator (MAS) and the EOS Terra based MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments, aerial photography and of sediment burial pipe field measurements along the prograding muddy Chenier Plain coast of western Louisiana for documenting coastal change in that dynamic region, and routine collection of MODIS 250 in resolution data for monitoring coastal sediment patterns. The data sets are being used in a process to transfer an SSC estimation algorithm to the MODIS platform. Work is underway on assessing coastal transport for the winter 2000-01 season. Water level data for use in a Geomorphic Impact Index, which relates wind energy, water level conditions, and geomorphic change along the microtidal western Louisiana coastline is being assembled.

Moeller, Christopher C.↗

Physical Validation of GPM Retrieval Algorithms Over Land: An Overview of the Mid-Latitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E)

The joint NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) -- DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) was conducted from April 22-June 6, 2011, centered on the DOE-ARM Southern Great Plains Central Facility site in northern Oklahoma. GPM field campaign objectives focused on the collection of airborne and ground-based measurements of warm-season continental precipitation processes to support refinement of GPM retrieval algorithm physics over land, and to improve the fidelity of coupled cloud resolving and land-surface satellite simulator models. DOE ARM objectives were synergistically focused on relating observations of cloud microphysics and the surrounding environment to feedbacks on convective system dynamics, an effort driven by the need to better represent those interactions in numerical modeling frameworks. More specific topics addressed by MC3E include ice processes and ice characteristics as coupled to precipitation at the surface and radiometer signals measured in space, the correlation properties of rainfall and drop size distributions and impacts on dual-frequency radar retrieval algorithms, the transition of cloud water to rain water (e.g., autoconversion processes) and the vertical distribution of cloud water in precipitating clouds, and vertical draft structure statistics in cumulus convection. The MC3E observational strategy relied on NASA ER-2 high-altitude airborne multi-frequency radar (HIWRAP Ka-Ku band) and radiometer (AMPR, CoSMIR; 10-183 GHz) sampling (a GPM "proxy") over an atmospheric column being simultaneously profiled in situ by the University of North Dakota Citation microphysics aircraft, an array of ground-based multi-frequency scanning polarimetric radars (DOE Ka-W, X and C-band; NASA D3R Ka-Ku and NPOL S-bands) and wind-profilers (S/UHF bands), supported by a dense network of over 20 disdrometers and rain gauges, all nested in the coverage of a six-station mesoscale rawinsonde network. As an exploratory effort to examine land-surface emissivity impacts on retrieval algorithms, and to demonstrate airborne soil moisture retrieval capabilities, the University of Tennessee Space Institute Piper aircraft carrying the MAPIR L-band radiometer was also flown during the latter half of the experiment in coordination with the ER-2. The observational strategy provided a means to sample the atmospheric column in a redundant framework that enables inter-calibration and constraint of measured and retrieved precipitation characteristics such as particle size distributions, or water contents- all within the umbrella of "proxy" satellite measurements (i.e., the ER-2). Complimenting the precipitation sampling framework, frequent and coincident launches of atmospheric soundings (e.g., 4-8/day) then provided a much larger mesoscale view of the thermodynamic and winds environment, a data set useful for initializing cloud models. The datasets collected represent a variety cloud and precipitation types including isolated cumulus clouds, severe thunderstorms, mesoscale convective systems, and widespread regions of light to moderate stratiform precipitation. We will present the MC3E experiment design, an overview of operations, and a summary of preliminary results.

Petersen, Walter A.↗

FuseIM: Fusing Probabilistic Traversals for Influence Maximization on Exascale Systems

Probabilistic breadth-first traversals (BPTs) are used in many network science and graph machine learning applications. In this paper, we are motivated by the application of BPTs in stochastic diffusion-based graph problems such as influence maximization. These applications heavily rely on BPTs to implement a Monte-Carlo sampling step for their approximations. Given the large sampling complexity, stochasticity of the diffusion process, and the inherent irregularity in real-world graph topologies, efficiently parallelizing these BPTs remains significantly challenging. In this paper, we present a new algorithm to fuse massive number of concurrently executing BPTs with random starts on the input graph. Our algorithm is designed to fuse BPTs by combining separate traversals into a unified frontier on distributed multi-GPU systems. To show the general applicability of the fused BPT technique, we have incorporated it into two state-of-the-art influence maximization parallel implementations (gIM and Ripples). Our experiments on up to 4K nodes of the OLCF Frontier supercomputer (32,768 GPUs and 196K CPU cores) show strong scaling behavior, and that fused BPTs can improve the performance of these implementations up to 34x (for gIM) and ~360x (for Ripples).

Neff, Reece W.↗

Friction estimation technique for Galileo scan platform control

A friction estimation technique has been developed for the scan platform control of the Galileo spacecraft. The purpose of the estimation is to reduce the impact of friction in the scan platform actuator on the pointing performance of the scan platform so that tight pointing requirements can be met. The estimator operates by comparing the actual behavior of the platform with the expected behavior and attributing the difference to the presence of friction. The estimator is coupled with a proportional-integral-derivative controller to generate a control torque for the scan platform actuator. Since the algorithm will be implemented on an onboard digital computer, a stability analysis of the estimator-controller in discrete time is presented. The performance of the design is demonstrated by a sample slew test case.

Chodas, J. L.↗

Spectral analysis of linear, shift-invariant interpolants

The use of a spectral analysis technique to evaluate the reconstruction/interpolation performance of linear, shift-invariant interpolants is examined. The technique was utilized to measure the performance of cubic hermite, quintic hermite, exponential, cubic, spline, Nu, PCC, Keys cubic, and BAWA cubic interpolants. The performance criterion is based upon the mean square error of the difference between the sampled and reconstructed functions. The reconstruction properties, interpolation functions, and reconstruction filters for the interpolants are studied and compared. It is noted that the spectral analysis technique is applicable to reconstruction algorithms used in signal and image processes, and interpolants used in numerical analysis, computer-aided design, and computer graphics.

Lansing, Donald L.↗

Theory of gearing

Basic mathematical problems on the theory of gearing are covered in this book, such as the necessary and sufficient conditions of envelope existence, relations between principal curvatures and directions for surfaces of mating gears. Also included are singularities of surfaces accompanied by undercutting the process of generation, the phenomena of envelope of lines of contact, and the principles for generation of conjugate surfaces. Special attention is given to the algorithms for computer aided simulation of meshing and tooth contact. This edition was complemented with the results of research recently performed by the author and his doctoral students. The book contains sample problems and also problems for the reader to solve.

Gear-tooth surface↗

Automated cloud screening of AVHRR imagery using split-and-merge clustering

Previous methods to segment clouds from ocean in AVHRR imagery have shown varying degrees of success, with nighttime approaches being the most limited. An improved method of automatic image segmentation, the principal component transformation split-and-merge clustering (PCTSMC) algorithm, is presented and applied to cloud screening of both nighttime and daytime AVHRR data. The method combines spectral differencing, the principal component transformation, and split-and-merge clustering to sample objectively the natural classes in the data. This segmentation method is then augmented by supervised classification techniques to screen clouds from the imagery. Comparisons with other nighttime methods demonstrate its improved capability in this application. The sensitivity of the method to clustering parameters is presented; the results show that the method is insensitive to the split-and-merge thresholds.

Gallaudet, Timothy C.↗

Time-Extended Payoffs for Collectives of Autonomous Agents

A collective is a set of self-interested agents which try to maximize their own utilities, along with a a well-defined, time-extended world utility function which rates the performance of the entire system. In this paper, we use theory of collectives to design time-extended payoff utilities for agents that are both aligned with the world utility, and are "learnable", i.e., the agents can readily see how their behavior affects their utility. We show that in systems where each agent aims to optimize such payoff functions, coordination arises as a byproduct of the agents selfishly pursuing their own goals. A game theoretic analysis shows that such payoff functions have the net effect of aligning the Nash equilibrium, Pareto optimal solution and world utility optimum, thus eliminating undesirable behavior such as agents working at cross-purposes. We then apply collective-based payoff functions to the token collection in a gridworld problem where agents need to optimize the aggregate value of tokens collected across an episode of finite duration (i.e., an abstracted version of rovers on Mars collecting scientifically interesting rock samples, subject to power limitations). We show that, regardless of the initial token distribution, reinforcement learning agents using collective-based payoff functions significantly outperform both natural extensions of single agent algorithms and global reinforcement learning solutions based on "team games".

Tumer, Kagan↗

MISR Aerosol Product Attributes and Statistical Comparisons with MODIS

In this paper, Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) aerosol product attributes are described, including geometry and algorithm performance flags. Actual retrieval coverage is mapped and explained in detail using representative global monthly data. Statistical comparisons are made with coincident aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Angstrom exponent (ANG) retrieval results from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument. The relationship between these results and the ones previously obtained for MISR and MODIS individually, based on comparisons with coincident ground-truth observations, is established. For the data examined, MISR and MODIS each obtain successful aerosol retrievals about 15% of the time, and coincident MISR-MODIS aerosol retrievals are obtained for about 6%-7% of the total overlap region. Cloud avoidance, glint and oblique-Sun exclusions, and other algorithm physical limitations account for these results. For both MISR and MODIS, successful retrievals are obtained for over 75% of locations where attempts are made. Where coincident AOD retrievals are obtained over ocean, the MISR-MODIS correlation coefficient is about 0.9; over land, the correlation coefficient is about 0.7. Differences are traced to specific known algorithm issues or conditions. Over-ocean ANG comparisons yield a correlation of 0.67, showing consistency in distinguishing aerosol air masses dominated by coarse-mode versus fine-mode particles. Sampling considerations imply that care must be taken when assessing monthly global aerosol direct radiative forcing and AOD trends with these products, but they can be used directly for many other applications, such as regional AOD gradient and aerosol air mass type mapping and aerosol transport model validation. Users are urged to take seriously the published product data-quality statements.

Kahn, Ralph A.↗

Spatial Coverage Planning for a Planetary Rover

We are developing onboard planning and execution technologies to support the exploration and characterization of geological features by autonomous rovers. In order to generate high quality mission plans, an autonomous rover must reason about the relative importance of the observations it can perform. In this paper we look at the scientific criteria of selecting observations that improve the quality of the area covered by samples. Our approach makes use of a priori information, if available, and allows scientists to mark sub-regions of the area with relative priorities for exploration. We use an efficient algorithm for prioritizing observations based on spatial coverage that allows the system to update observation rankings as new information is gained during execution.

Onboard planning↗

Mars 2020 Coring Drill: Prototype Testing and Analysis

The Mars 2020 rover will carry a new subsystem to collect and prepare Martian rocks and regolith (loose, unconsolidated) samples. This includes a rotary percussive coring drill and a set of sample tubes. About 30 of these sample tubes will be deposited at select locations for return on a potential future sample-retrieval mission. In laboratories on Earth, specimens from Mars could be analyzed for evidence of past life on Mars and possible health hazards for future human missions. Hardware and control algorithms for the coring drill are based heavily on testing. Results from testing of prototype hardware are used to refine the design

Kreichbaum, Kristopher↗

Predicting interface structure using the minima hopping method

Here, we adapt the minima hopping method (MHM) to the problem of interfacial structure prediction and apply it to study a canonical problem, the tilt grain boundaries in SrTiO 3 . Our method employs a hybrid approach by first exploring the potential energy surface (PES) of different grain boundary samplings with an empirical force field, among which the fifteen candidates with lower energies are then refined using ab initio density functional theory (DFT) calculations. During the exploratory stage, we bias the search using a local order parameter to primarily sample various reconstructions in the vicinity of the interface, while preserving the crystallinity of the bulk regions. We further enhance the search by incorporating initial structures with rigid body displacements to account for translational variations between bulk phases, enabling the MHM to effectively generate both stoichiometric and nonstoichiometric SrTiO 3 Σ⁢3(111)[110] and Σ⁢3(112)[110] grain boundaries. From an algorithmic standpoint, MHM outperforms earlier studies based on genetic algorithms (GA) by identifying more stable interfacial structures of several SrTiO 3 grain boundaries. The performance of the present implementation of the MHM approach is primarily limited by exploring an approximate description of the PES with a rather simple Buckingham potential. This limitation leads to variations in performance when compared to approaches utilizing more advanced surrogate PES models, such as direct DFT-PES sampling or GA with the embedded atom method (EAM). Despite the present limitations, the MHM approach is able to yield interfacial structures with comparable or lower interfacial energies in specific cases, such as Σ⁢3(111)[110] Γ=1, ±0.5 and Σ⁢3(112)[110] Γ= ±1, −2, underscoring the robustness of the MHM approach even with a simple approximation of the DFT PES. The MHM interfacial structure prediction method thus offers an efficient approach to understanding the grain boundaries and heterointerfaces at the atomic scale, providing an important prerequisite for effective materials design.

density functional theory↗

Vacuum Sealable Container (VSC) and Astronaut Lunar Drill (ALD) for Artemis

Introduction: NASA’s Artemis Program is under development to send first woman and next man to the Moon. Artemis will utilize a suite of new technology for Lunar exploration, including new space vehicles, new space suits, and new Astronaut Tools. Honeybee Robotics has been working with NASA JSC to develop a new Vacuum Sealable Container (VSC) and new Astronaut Lunar Drill (ALD) for the upcoming Artemis missions. Vacuum Sealable Container: Sample return continues to be the “Holy Grail” of space exploration, allowing for the analysis of materials using Earth-based laboratories instead of needing to miniaturize and ruggedize instrumentation for space. The Apollo missions to the Moon had several kinds of Sealable Containers which brought back Lunar samples for analysis [1]. These samples are still being analyzed, fifty years later. The VSC requirements are different from that for Apollo containers and as such, new development was required. One major difference between Artemis samples and those from Apollo is the desire to bring back volatiles which may be part of lunar regolith. The VSC is designed to withstand a high-pressure differential caused by sublimating volatiles. Because of the new, stricter sealing requirements, additional features have been added to the VSC. For example, the seal on the container is required to be more robust, thus required more force to actuate, and the seal must be locked in place with a secondary mechanism. Astronaut Lunar Drill: The ALD is designed to be a multi-functional platform for Lunar sample acquisition. The drill builds on lessons learned from the Apollo Lunar Surface Drill (ALSD), as well as Honeybee’s long history of mechanized sample acquisition devices for space [2]. The main functionality of the ALD is Deep Core Regolith Drilling. Additional functionality includes Surface Rock Coring (SRC), and GeoTech Tools (GTT). The ALD is a rotary-percussive drill designed with deep drilling in mind. The ALD is currently designed to have decoupled rotary and percussion subsystems to allow for maximum battery life and reduced fatigue on the crewmember. Honeybee drill technology will automatically engage the percussion when needed to drill at maximum efficiency. The mechanized drill stand helps improve drilling efficiency; the system utilizes advanced drilling algorithms which only require the crewmember to hold a single switch. Additionally, the stand aids in extraction of deep cores, something which was a problem on Apollo. The SRC functionality of the ALD utilizes Honeybee’s Eccentric Tube Core Breakoff technology to collect and retain rock core samples. This technology has also been infused into the Perseverance rover mission. The ALD is removable from the stand to allow crewmembers to collect samples from large boulders. Bringing back rock cores samples instead of full rocks allows for a wider variety of samples to be returned to Earth for study and puts them in a uniform form-factor for effective sealing and analysis. SRC bits will utilize the power of the drill’s percussion system to drill hard Lunar rocks and expedite sample acquisition. The mechanized stand on the ALD allows for additional attachments for taking geotechnical measurements with a Static Cone Penetrometer (SCP) and a Shear Vane (SV). With the stand, the ALD can take SCP measurements with the touch of a button, storing data for return to Earth. SV measurements utilize the ALD’s Rotary motor to spin the vanes in a controlled manner, getting clean data untampered by human error. References: [1] Bar Cohen and Zacny (2009), Drilling in Extreme Environments - Penetration and Sampling on Earth and Other Planets, Wiley. [2] Bar-Cohen and Zacny, Advances in Terrestrial and Extraterrestrial Drilling, CRC Press. [3] Myrick (2003), Core Break-off Mechanism. US Patent No. 6,550,549 Acknowledgements: This work has been supported by NASA via SBIR Phase 3.

Artemis↗

A general Bayesian algorithm for the autonomous alignment of beamlines

Autonomous methods to align beamlines can decrease the amount of time spent on diagnostics, and also uncover better global optima leading to better beam quality. The alignment of these beamlines is a high-dimensional expensive-to-sample optimization problem involving the simultaneous treatment of many optical elements with correlated and nonlinear dynamics. Bayesian optimization is a strategy of efficient global optimization that has proved successful in similar regimes in a wide variety of beamline alignment applications, though it has typically been implemented for particular beamlines and optimization tasks. In this paper, we present a basic formulation of Bayesian inference and Gaussian process models as they relate to multi-objective Bayesian optimization, as well as the practical challenges presented by beamline alignment. We show that the same general implementation of Bayesian optimization with special consideration for beamline alignment can quickly learn the dynamics of particular beamlines in an online fashion through hyperparameter fitting with no prior information. We present the implementation of a concise software framework for beamline alignment and test it on four different optimization problems for experiments on X-ray beamlines at the National Synchrotron Light Source II and the Advanced Light Source, and an electron beam at the Accelerator Test Facility, along with benchmarking on a simulated digital twin. We discuss new applications of the framework, and the potential for a unified approach to beamline alignment at synchrotron facilities.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Cris-atms Retrievals Using an AIRS Science Team Version 6-like Retrieval Algorithm

CrIS is the infrared high spectral resolution atmospheric sounder launched on Suomi-NPP in 2011. CrISATMS comprise the IRMW Sounding Suite on Suomi-NPP. CrIS is functionally equivalent to AIRS, the high spectral resolution IR sounder launched on EOS Aqua in 2002 and ATMS is functionally equivalent to AMSU on EOS Aqua. CrIS is an interferometer and AIRS is a grating spectrometer. Spectral coverage, spectral resolution, and channel noise of CrIS is similar to AIRS. CrIS spectral sampling is roughly twice as coarse as AIRSAIRS has 2378 channels between 650 cm-1 and 2665 cm-1. CrIS has 1305 channels between 650 cm-1 and 2550 cm-1. Spatial resolution of CrIS is comparable to AIRS.

AIRS↗