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Forest aboveground biomass estimation through integration of sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 time series: assessing models trained on GEDI and field inventory benchmarks

Accurate and spatially explicit forest Aboveground Biomass (AGB) mapping through remote sensing is critical for quantifying terrestrial carbon stocks and informing effective forest management strategies. However, AGB estimation in dense forests with complex terrain remains challenging due to satellite sensor signal saturation problem (saturation issue occurs in high biomass forests), structural complexity, and limited ground truth for calibration. This study presents a novel framework that integrates multi-temporal Sentinel-2 optical imagery, ALOS PALSAR-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and topographic variables with explainable Machine Learning to map AGB across mountainous forests within subtropical and temperate oceanic climate zones of Mexico. We evaluate the effects of temporal granularity and sensor synergy by comparing multiple temporal inputs and sensor configurations (Sentinel-2, PALSAR-2, and their fusion), and assess model performance using two reference datasets: NASA GEDI LiDAR-derived biomass and Mexico’s National Forest and Soil Inventory (INFyS). Our results showed that models trained on INFyS consistently outperformed those trained on GEDI, highlighting limitations in GEDI’s reliability in biomass estimates within this study region. Furthermore, the integration of Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 provided improved predictions compared to single-sensor models, particularly when combined with temporally explicit yearly statistics. The best-performing model, which was trained on INFyS data, and considered both Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 yearly statistics, as well as topographic variables, achieved an R2 of 0.64, RMSE of 51.10 Mg/ha, and relative RMSE (rRMSE) of 58.69%. Explainable ML analysis identified Sentinel-2 spectral indices and topographic features as key predictors, while PALSAR-2 metrics provided complementary information, partially mitigating saturation effects in high-biomass areas. Specifically, integrating both sensors substantially improved AGB estimation in high biomass forest (≥200 Mg/ha), yielding 98% gains over optical-only model, with resulting estimates exceeding GEDI L4B by 29% and ESA-CCI-BIOMASS by 174%. Terrain-stratified analysis indicated close agreement with GEDI in low-slope areas, with increasing divergence as slope steepness increased, while estimates remained consistently higher than ESA-CCI-BIOMASS across all slope classes. The proposed approach advances multi-sensor fusion and temporal feature engineering for AGB mapping using open-access satellite datasets, providing a scalable and reproducible framework for annual biomass monitoring in topographically complex mountainous forests. The resulting 25 m resolution biomass product has the potential to provide spatially detailed information for forest monitoring and may support applications in carbon accounting and forest management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An empirical calibration of the serpentine-water oxygen isotope fractionation at T = 25–100°C

The ability to precisely constrain the physical–chemical conditions of serpentinization, such as temperature and fluid source, is limited by the accuracy of calibrations for oxygen isotope fractionation between serpentine and water – i.e., 1000 lnα( serpentine-water ) – which disagree by up to 20‰ when extrapolated to T<200°C. In this study, we present a new empirical calibration of 1000 lnα( serpentine-water ) aiming to improve applications of oxygen isotope geochemistry to very low-T serpentinization (T<100°C). We used the high-spatial resolution capabilities of Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (SIMS) to analyze oxygen isotope ratios in mineral pairs of calcite + serpentine, quartz + serpentine and talc + serpentine co-crystallized at scales≤50μm in six serpentinite samples from the Samail ophiolite (Oman). SIMS analysis shows that the mineral pairs are relatively homogenous in oxygen isotope ratios with variability in δ 18 O values ≤2‰ (2s). Clumped isotope thermometry and petrological constraints indicate crystallization temperatures from 25 to 100°C for the investigated samples. These independent constraints on temperature allowed us to derive 1000 lnα( serpentine-water ) by combining Δ 18 O( quartz-serpentine ), Δ 18 O( talc-serpentine ) and Δ 18 O( calcite-serpentine ) measured by SIMS in the investigated samples with Δ 18 O( quartz-water ), Δ 18 O( talc-water ) and Δ 18 O( calcite-water ) calibrations available in the literature. Our empirical calibration of 1000 lnα( serpentine-water ) = 1.04±0.20 (2SE) × 10 6 /T 2 (T in K), from T = 25 to 100°C, is within uncertainty of former high-temperature empirical calibrations extrapolated to T<100°C and matches experimental calibrations when extrapolated to T=250°C. In conclusion, the new serpentine-water calibration enables more accurate reconstructions of fluid-rock interactions occurring during low-temperature serpentinization processes in various tectonic settings.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Experimental study of vorticity-strain interactions in turbulent premixed counterflow flames

Here, the effects of heat release on interactions between vorticity (ω) and strain rate (s) in turbulent premixed CH 4 /O 2 /N 2 counterflow flames are investigated using simultaneous OH laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) and tomographic particle image velocimetry (TPIV) measurements. A comparison between the flames and a corresponding turbulent non-reacting variable density N 2 -vs-products counterflow reveals the impact of heat release on vorticity-strain rate alignment statistics. Vorticity and strain rate statistics in the flames and non-reacting flow are conditioned on distance from the local flame front and gas mixing layer interface (GMLI) contours, respectively. The magnitude, alignment, and spatial distribution of the vorticity and principal strain rates (s 1 , s 2 , s 3 ) are rather different when heat release is present. Density variations without heat release enhance the ω-s 2 alignment while significantly reducing the ω-s 3 alignment and modestly reducing the ω-s 1 alignment. In contrast, heat release at the flame front further reduces the ω-s 1 alignment but increases the ω-s 3 alignment and suppresses the preferential ω-s 2 alignment. Furthermore, increasing turbulence diminishes the effect of heat release on this preferential alignment. In regions with the largest vorticities, both the reacting and non-reacting counterflows show an increase in the probability of ω-s 2 alignment. All counterflow cases have a net positive vortex-stretching contribution to the enstrophy production with a peak production rate at the flame front or GMLI, but the peak values depend on the density variation, heat release, and turbulence level. Elucidation of the complex interplay between these factors contributes to the understanding of the dynamics of turbulence-flame interactions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Color halo scenario of charmonium-like hybrids

The internal structures of J PC =1 -- ,(o,1,2) -+ charmonium-like hybrids are investigated under lattice QCD in the quenched approximation. We define the Bethe-Salpeter wave function (Φn(r)) in the Coulomb gauge as the matrix element of a spatially extended hybrid-like operator ($\bar{c}cg$) between the vacuum and n-th state for J PC , with r being the spatial separation between a localized $\bar{c}c$ component and the chromomagnetic strength tensor. These wave functions exhibit some similarities for states with the aforementioned different quantum numbers, and their r-behaviors (no node for the ground states and one node for the first excited states) imply that r can be a meaningful dynamical variable for these states. Additionally, the mass splittings of the ground states and first excited states of charmonium-like hybrids in these channels are obtained for the first time to be approximately 1.2-1.4 GeV. These results do not support the flux-tube description of heavy-quarkonium-like hybrids in the Born-Oppenheimer approximation. In contrast, a charmonium-like hybrid can be viewed as a "color halo" charmonium for which a relatively localized color octet $\bar{c}c$ is surrounded by gluonic degrees of freedom, which can readily decay into a charmonium state along with one or more light hadrons. The color halo picture is compatible with the decay properties of Y (42600) and suggests LHCb and BelleII to search for (0,1,2) -+ charmonium-like hybrids in Xc0,1,2N and J/ψω(φ) final states.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Measurement of the Centrality Dependence of the Dijet Yield in p + Pb Collisions at s NN = 8.16 TeV with the ATLAS Detector

ATLAS measured the centrality dependence of the dijet yield using 165 nb − 1 of p + Pb data collected at s NN = 8.16 TeV in 2016. The event centrality, which reflects the p + Pb impact parameter, is characterized by the total transverse energy registered in the Pb-going side of the forward calorimeter. The central-to-peripheral ratio of the scaled dijet yields, R CP , is evaluated, and the results are presented as a function of variables that reflect the kinematics of the initial hard parton scattering process. The R CP shows a scaling with the Bjorken x of the parton originating from the proton, x p , while no such trend is observed as a function of x Pb . This analysis provides unique input to understanding the role of small proton spatial configurations in p + Pb collisions by covering parton momentum fractions from the valence region down to x p ∼ 10 − 3 and x Pb ∼ 4 × 10 − 4 . © 2024 CERN, for the ATLAS Collaboration 2024 CERN

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Spatiotemporal Modeling of Real World Backsheets Field Survey Data: Hierarchical (Multilevel) Generalized Additive Models

Assessing photovoltaic module backsheet durability is critical to increasing module lifetime. Laboratory-based accelerating testing has recently failed to predict large scale failures of widely adopted polymeric materials. Additionally, there is a growing concern on characterizing the non-uniformity of field exposure. Therefore, data from field surveys are critical to assess the performance of component lifetimes. Using a documented field survey protocol, 19 field surveys were conducted. The focus of this survey strategy is to investigate spatial continuity in degradation modes. By combining field survey data with real-time satellite weather data, stressor / response models have been trained. Generalized additive Models (GAM) model was created to predict the value of degradation based on measured predictors. Two different GAM constructions were testing using different implementations of basis splines. The model includes variables on the environmental stressors of the system and the location of each measurement in the PV mounting structure. The incorporation of hierarchical structure into the models allowed for material specific degradation rates, while maintaining the assumption of a global trend. The model performed well with an adjusted R2 of 0.975 for yellowness index prediction.

backsheet↗

QUIC-Fire: 3D Fire-Atmosphere Feedback Model for Wildland Fire Management

Los Alamos National Laboratory, U.S. Forest Service, and Tall Timbers Research Station developed QUIC-Fire, the first laptop-capable, real-time wildland fire prediction software that captures the critical influences of 3D vegetation structure, interactions between multiple fires, variable winds, and complex topography at meter-scale resolutions. Prescribed burns are needed to prevent catastrophic wildfires in the U.S. QUIC-Fire transforms a prescribed fire manager’s ability to assess risk, optimize fuel treatments, and plan prescribed burns. Los Alamos, U.S. Forest Service, Tall Timbers Research Station, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Spatial Information Group, and Applied Interagency Prescribed Training Center have used QUIC-Fire.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mars Upper Atmospheric Temperature and Atomic Oxygen Density Derived from the O i 130.4 nm Emission Observed by NASA’s MAVEN Mission

The abundance of atomic oxygen is a major unknown for the Mars upper atmosphere, and systematic measurements of this key species is a primary objective of NASA’s Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) mission. Moreover, the Martian dayside temperature structure and its variability has been a subject of considerable debate in the past. In this study, an inversion analysis of the periapsis limb scans of the O i 130.4 nm emission observed by MAVEN is performed to quantify the neutral temperature and atomic oxygen abundance in the Mars upper atmosphere. Our analysis yields unprecedented resolution of the spatial variation of Mars atomic oxygen, showing that its exobase density decreases with the solar zenith angle (SZA) from ∼0° to 60° by about an order of magnitude, from ∼10{sup 8} to ∼10{sup 7} cm{sup −3} near perihelion (2015 April) and from ∼10{sup 7} to ∼10{sup 6} cm{sup −3} near aphelion (2017 November). For a given SZA the exobase densities near perihelion are about an order of magnitude higher than those near aphelion. The [O]/[CO{sub 2}] mixing ratio at 130 km altitude can vary from ∼0.1% to 4.6%, which also decreases with increasing SZA. Moreover, it is shown that the Mars exobase temperature does not vary significantly with SZA from ∼0° to ∼60°, which is estimated to be ∼239.2 ± 27.6 K near perihelion and ∼162.4 ± 19.9 K near aphelion, with a difference of 76.8 K between these two seasonal extremes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Brief communication: Monitoring snow depth using small, cheap, and easy-to-deploy snow–ground interface temperature sensors

Abstract. Temporally continuous snow depth estimates are vital for understanding changing snow patterns and impacts on permafrost in the Arctic. We trained a random forest machine learning model to predict snow depth from variability in snow–ground interface temperature. The model performed well on Alaska's Seward Peninsula where it was trained and at Arctic evaluation sites (RMSE ≤ 0.15 m). It performed poorly at temperate sites with deeper snowpacks, partially due to training data limitations. Small temperature sensors are cheap and easy to deploy, so this technique enables spatially distributed and temporally continuous snowpack monitoring at high latitudes to an extent previously infeasible.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of a Variable-Aperture Full-Ring SPECT System using Large-Area Pixelated CZT Modules: A Simulation Study for Brain SPECT Applications

Single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) scanner using cadmium zinc telluride (CZT) offers improved imaging capability over conventional NaI (Tl)-based SPECT scanner. We aim to demonstrate a full-ring SPECT system design with eight large-area CZT detectors that can be used for a broad spectrum of SPECT radiopharmaceuticals and provides higher sensitivity and better spatial resolution than those of conventional NaI (Tl)-based gamma cameras. A newly-designed full-ring SPECT system is composed of 8 large-area CZT cameras (128 mm × 179.2 mm effective area) that can be independently swiveled around their own axes of rotation independently and can have radial motion for varying aperture sizes that can be adapted to different sizes of imaging volume. Extended projection data were generated by conjoining projections of two adjacent detectors to overcome the limited field-of-view (FOV) by each CZT camera. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we evaluated this new system design with digital phantoms including a Derenzo hot-rod phantom and a Zubal brain phantom. Comparison of performance metrics such as spatial resolution, sensitivity, contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR), and contrast-recovery ratio were made between our design and a conventional SPECT scanner. The proposed scanner could result in up to about 3 times faster in acquisition time over conventional scan time at same acquisition time per step. The spatial resolution of our proposed scanner was similar or better to that of the conventional scanner, and there was significant performance improvement over the conventional scanner particularly in sensitivity (approximately 4 times). Overall, we successfully reconstructed the phantom image for both 99 mTc-based perfusion and 123 I-based dopamine transporter (DaT) brain studies simulated for our new design. In particular, the striatal/background contrast-recovery ratio in 3-to-1 reference ratio was over the 0.8 for the 123 I-based DaT study. In conclusion, we demonstrated the potential of our new full-ring CZT SPECT design, showing improved performance metrics such as improved system sensitivity and CNR while maintaining other important imaging parameters such as spatial resolution.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Impact of solar geoengineering on temperatures over the Indonesian Maritime Continent

Climate change has been projected to increase the intensity and magnitude of extreme temperature in Indonesia. Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a strategy to temporarily combat global warming, buying time for negative emissions. Though the global impacts of SRM have been extensively studied in recent years, regional impacts, especially in the tropics, have received much less attention. This paper investigates the potential stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering to modify mean and extreme temperature, as well as the relative humidity and wet bulb temperature (WBT) change over Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) based on simulations from three different earth system models. We applied statistical downscaling and corrected the bias of model output to reproduce historical temperatures and relative humidity over IMC. We compared SRM as specified by the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G4 experiment – 5 Tg of SO 2 into the lower stratosphere between 2020 and 2069 – concurrent with the RCP4.5 emissions scenario. SRM is able to significantly reduce the temperature means and extremes, and although differences in magnitude of response and spatial pattern occur, there is a generally consistent response. Additionally, the spatial response of changes forced by RCP4.5 scenario and SRM impact is notably heterogeneous in the archipelago, highlighting uncertainties that would be critical in assessing socio-economic consequences of both doing, and not doing SRM. In general, SRM has bigger impacts in reducing temperatures over land than oceans, and the southern monsoon region shows more variability. SRM is also effective at reducing the likelihood of WBT > 27OC events compared to RCP4.5 after some years of SRM deployment as well as during the post-termination period of SRM. Regional downscaling may be an effective tool in obtaining policy-relevant information about local effects of different future scenarios involving SRM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Geophysical methods reveal the soil architecture and subsurface stratigraphic heterogeneities across land-lake interfaces along Lake Erie

Abstract Purpose The land-lake interface is a unique zone where terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems meet, forming part of the Earth’s most geochemically and biologically active zones. The unique characteristics of this interface are yet to be properly understood due to the inherently high spatiotemporal variability of subsurface properties, which are difficult to capture with the traditional soil sampling methods. Geophysical methods offer non-invasive techniques to capture variabilities in soil properties at a high resolution across various spatiotemporal scales. Methods We combined electromagnetic induction (EMI), electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and ground penetrating radar (GPR) with data from soil cores and in situ sensors to investigate hydrostratigraphic heterogeneities across land-lake interfaces along the western basin of Lake Erie. Results EMI revealed high spatial heterogeneities in ECa distribution across the land-lake interfaces, with higher values in the wetland and transition zones compared to the upland zone. Soil ECa maps matched soil maps from a public database with the hydric soil units delineated as high conductivity zones (ECa > 40 mS/m). ERT and GPR showed vertical variation in soil properties with clear stratigraphic boundaries, and correlation of ERT profiles with lithologs from piezometers revealed the stratigraphic units of silt–clay and till sequence down to 3.5 m depth which are consistent with the surficial geology of the study area. Conclusions These results validate the use of multiple geophysical methods for extrapolating soil properties and mapping stratigraphic structures at land-lake interfaces, thereby providing the missing information required to improve the earth system model (ESM) of coastal interfaces.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thick Electrode Design for Facile Electron and Ion Transport: Architectures, Advanced Characterization, and Modeling

The demand for lithium ion batteries continues to expand for powering applications such as portable electronics, grid-scale energy storage, and electric vehicles. As the application requirements advance, the innovation of lithium ion batteries toward higher energy density and power output is required. Along with the investigation of new materials, an important strategy for increasing battery energy content is to design electrodes with high areal loading to minimize the fraction of nonactive materials such as current collectors, separators, and packaging components, resulting in significant gains in energy content and the reduction of the system-level cost. However, the adoption of thick high areal loading electrodes has been impeded by sluggish charge transport and mechanical instability. With conventional slurry cast electrodes, battery function significantly deteriorates with increases in electrode thickness due to high cell polarization and the incomplete utilization of active materials. Thus, a consideration of approaches that facilitate an understanding and eventual adoption of high-loading electrodes is warranted to enable the deliberate advancement of next-generation batteries. Herein, this Account considers three aspects critical to the science and technology of thick high-loading electrodes. The first discussion covers recent approaches to the design and fabrication of high-loading electrodes. Ensuring electrical contact throughout the electrode is accomplished through the manipulation of conductive additives or using a conductive scaffold within the electrode. Ion transport can be facilitated through electrode design and fabrication approaches that deliberately control the electrode porosity and tortuosity. Second, advanced characterization methodologies are presented as the ability to determine the origins of transport limitations provide the insight needed to deliberately approach future designs. Spectroscopic and diffraction methods have been used to characterize the 2D and 3D pore structure and composition of the electrodes. Furthermore, operando methods that yield spatially and temporally resolved information regarding the progression of the electrochemical reaction are highlighted. The third aspect considered is the utilization of modeling. Physically based continuum models linked with the results of experimental characterization have been demonstrated and then allow the rapid simulation of a variety of deliberate electrode designs and their impacts on functional electrochemistry. Variables relevant to the designs can be tested by the model under a series of use conditions to identify those of most promise for a specific application. Finally, an outlook on future opportunities for high-loading battery electrode research is provided to inform and entice practitioners in the field to pursue these important directions of inquiry.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Monoatomic orbital-based one-dimensional topological crystalline insulator

The bulk-boundary correspondence in topological crystalline insulators (TCIs) links the topological properties of the bulk to robust observables on the edges, e.g., the existence of robust edge modes or fractional charge. In one dimension, TCIs protected by reflection symmetry have been realized in a variety of systems in which each unit cell has spatially distributed degrees of freedom (SDOF). However, these realizations exhibit sensitivity of the resulting edge modes to variations in edge termination and to the local breaking of the protective spatial symmetries by inhomogeneity. Here we demonstrate topologically protected edge states in a monoatomic, orbital-based TCI that mitigates both of these issues. By collapsing all SDOF within the unit cell to a singular point in space, we eliminate the ambiguity in unit-cell definition and hence remove a prominent source of boundary termination variability. The topological observables are also more tolerant to disorder in the orbital energies. To validate this concept, we experimentally realize a lattice of mechanical resonators where each resonator acts as an “atom” that harbors two key orbital degrees of freedom having opposite reflection parity. Finally, our measurements of this system provide direct visualization of the sp-hybridization between orbital modes that leads to a nontrivial band inversion in the bulk.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Transitions in the morphology and critical stresses of gliding dislocations in multiprincipal element alloys

Refractory multiprincipal element alloys (MPEAs) are promising material candidates for high-temperature, high-strength applications. However, their deformation mechanisms, particularly at the dislocation scale, are unusual compared to those of conventional alloys, making it challenging to understand the origin of their high strength. Here, using an atomistically informed phase-field dislocation dynamics model, we study transitions in the morphology and critical stresses of long gliding screw dislocations over extended distances in a refractory MPEA. The model MPEA crystal accounts for the atomic-scale fluctuations in chemical composition across the glide planes via spatially correlated lattice energies and for the differences in glide resistances between screw and edge dislocations of unit length. Here, we show that the dislocation moves in a stop-start motion, alternating between wavy morphology in free flight and nearly recovered straight screw orientation in full arrest. The periods of wavy glide are due to variable kink-pair formation and migration rates along the length, where portions with higher rates glide more quickly. The critical stress to initiate motion corresponds to the stress required to form and migrate a kink pair at the weakest region along the length of the dislocation. Heterogeneity in lattice energy leads to variability in the local stress-strain response and to a strain hardening-like response, in which the critical stress to reactivate glide increases with glide distance. Statistical assessment of hundreds of realizations of dislocations indicates that the amount of hardening directly scales with the dispersion in underlying lattice energy.

3-dimensional systems↗

Neutron measurement from neutrino interactions in NOvA

The NuMI Off-Axis Appearance (NOvA) experiment is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment based at Fermilab, consisting of two functionally identical liquid-scintillator detectors positioned slightly off-axis from the NuMI beam. It aims to probe CP violation in the lepton sector and determine the neutrino mass ordering by comparing the oscillation rates between the detectors. Given the energy dependence of oscillations, energy reconstruction is key--and a key limitation in the precision and accuracy of this kinematic variable is an understanding of primary neutron-related uncertainties since many may go undetected. While recent improvements have reduced discrepancies, NOvA's simulation still overpredicts neutron-linked activity by about 20\%, particularly for neutrons between 5–200 MeV. We present ongoing progress toward a measurement of neutron multiplicity in the NOvA Near Detector using spatially displaced and delayed energy deposits associated with neutron interactions, aiming to constrain neutron-related systematics and improve neutrino energy reconstruction in future oscillation analyses.

Kufatty, G. [Florida State U.]↗

Multiwavelength Observations of the Blazar PKS 0735+178 in Spatial and Temporal Coincidence with an Astrophysical Neutrino Candidate IceCube-211208A

We report on multiwavelength target-of-opportunity observations of the blazar PKS 0735+178, located 2.°2 away from the best-fit position of the IceCube neutrino event IceCube-211208A detected on 2021 December 8. The source was in a high-flux state in the optical, ultraviolet, X-ray, and GeV γ -ray bands around the time of the neutrino event, exhibiting daily variability in the soft X-ray flux. The X-ray data from Swift-XRT and NuSTAR characterize the transition between the low-energy and high-energy components of the broadband spectral energy distribution (SED), and the γ -ray data from Fermi-LAT, VERITAS, and H.E.S.S. require a spectral cutoff near 100 GeV. Both the X-ray and γ -ray measurements provide strong constraints on the leptonic and hadronic models. We analytically explore a synchrotron self-Compton model, an external Compton model, and a lepto-hadronic model. Models that are entirely based on internal photon fields face serious difficulties in matching the observed SED. The existence of an external photon field in the source would instead explain the observed γ -ray spectral cutoff in both the leptonic and lepto-hadronic models and allow a proton jet power that marginally agrees with the Eddington limit in the lepto-hadronic model. We show a numerical lepto-hadronic model with external target photons that reproduces the observed SED and is reasonably consistent with the neutrino event despite requiring a high jet power.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fire–precipitation interactions amplify the quasi-biennial variability in fires over southern Mexico and Central America

Fires have great ecological, social, and economic impact. However, fire prediction and management remain challenges due to a limited understanding of their roles in the Earth system. Fires over southern Mexico and Central America (SMCA) are a good example of this, greatly impacting local air quality and regional climate. Here we report that the spring peak (April–May) of fire activities in this region has a distinct quasi-biennial signal based on multiple satellite datasets measuring different fire characteristics. The variability is initially driven by quasi-biennial variations in precipitation. Composite analysis indicates that strong fire years correspond to suppressed ascending motion and weakened precipitation over the SMCA. The anomalous precipitation over the SMCA is further found to be mostly related to the East Pacific–North Pacific (EP-NP) pattern 2 months prior to the fire season. The positive phase of the EP-NP leads to enhanced precipitation over the eastern US but suppressed precipitation over the SMCA, similar to the spatial pattern of precipitation differences between strong and weak fire years. Meanwhile, the quasi-biennial signals in precipitation and fires appear to be amplified by their interactions through a positive feedback loop at short timescales. Model simulations show that in strong fire years, more aerosol particles are released and transported downstream over the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern US, where suspended light-absorbing aerosols warm the atmosphere and cause the ascending motion of the air aloft. Subsequently, a compensating downward motion is formed over the region of the fire source and ultimately suppresses precipitation and intensifies fires. Statistical analysis shows the different durations of the two-way interaction, where the fire suppression effect of precipitation lasts for more than 20 d, while fire leads to a decrease in precipitation at shorter timescales (3–5 d). This study demonstrates the importance of fire–climate interactions in shaping the fire activities on an interannual scale and highlights how precipitation–fire interactions at short timescales contribute to the interannual variability in both fire and precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗