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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1987

A method for remote sensing the emissivity, fractional cloud cover and cloud top temperature of high-level, thin clouds

A methodology for retrieving the emissivity, cloud cover and cloud top temperature of high-level, thin clouds is developed and described. In the thermal infrared windows, the outgoing radiances from the earth's atmosphere contain information about cloud emissivity and cloud top temperature. This information is clearly demonstrated in the brightness temperature difference curves of two window channels. For the purpose of illustration, two window channels centered at 810 and 930 cm are chosen to construct the brightness temperature difference curves for a range of cloud top temperatures. These curves vary for different cloud top temperatures, and along each of these curves the emissivity changes. The brightness temperature difference method is used in a simulation study to demonstrate the feasibility of retrieving the cloud top temperature and emissivity by the utilization of measurements in two window channels. As expected, a perfect retrieval is found if perfect measurements and ideal atmospheric conditions are assumed. If a random error, which has a normal distribution with a mean of zero and standard deviation of + or - 0.5 C, is imposed to the measurements, a reasonable retrieval is found for emissivity greater than 0.3. The algorithm has been applied to a limited amount of HIRS2 data, which has 3.7, 3.98 and 11 micron channels. The cloud top temperature, emissivity and cloud cover are determined by using these channels.

Wu, Man-Li C.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Current Sounding Capability From Satellite Meteorological Observation With Ultraspectral Infrared Instruments

Ultraspectral resolution infrared spectral radiance obtained from near nadir observations provide atmospheric, surface, and cloud property information. The intent of the measurement of tropospheric thermodynamic state and trace abundances is the initialization of climate models and the monitoring of air quality. The NPOESS Airborne Sounder Testbed-Interferometer (NAST-I), designed to support the development of future satellite temperature and moisture sounders, aboard high altitude aircraft has been collecting data throughout many field campaigns. An advanced retrieval algorithm developed with NAST-I is now applied to satellite data collected with the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) on the Aqua satellite launched on 4 May 2002 and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on the MetOp satellite launched on October 19, 2006. These instruments possess an ultra-spectral resolution, for example, both IASI and NAST-I have ~0.25 cm-1 and a spectral coverage from 645 to 2760 cm-1. The retrieval algorithm with a fast radiative transfer model, including cloud effects, is used for atmospheric profile and cloud parameter retrieval. The physical inversion scheme has been developed, dealing with cloudy as well as cloud-free radiance observed with ultraspectral infrared sounders, to simultaneously retrieve surface, atmospheric thermodynamic, and cloud microphysical parameters. A fast radiative transfer model, which applies to the clouded atmosphere, is used for atmospheric profile and cloud parameter retrieval. A one-dimensional (1-d) variational multi-variable inversion solution is used to improve an iterative background state defined by an eigenvector-regression-retrieval. The solution is iterated in order to account for non-linearity in the 1-d variational solution. It is shown that relatively accurate temperature and moisture retrievals can be achieved below optically thin clouds. For optically thick clouds, accurate temperature and moisture profiles down to cloud top level are obtained. For both optically thin and thick cloud situations, the cloud top height can be retrieved with relatively high accuracy (i.e., error less than 1 km). Retrievals of atmospheric soundings, surface properties, and cloud microphysical properties with the AIRS and IASI observations are obtained and presented. These retrievals are further inter-compared with those obtained from airborne FTS system, such as the NPOESS Airborne Sounder Testbed? Interferometer (NAST I), dedicated dropsondes, radiosondes, and ground based Raman Lidar. The capabilities of satellite ultra-spectral sounder such as the AIRS and IASI are investigated. These advanced satellite ultraspectral infrared instruments are now playing an important role in satellite meteorological observation for numerical weather prediction.

Zhou, Daniel K.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Land Surface Modeling and Data Assimilation to Support Physical Precipitation Retrievals for GPM

Objective: The objective of this proposal is to provide a routine land surface modeling and data assimilation capability for GPM in order to provide global land surface states that are necessary to support physical precipitation retrieval algorithms over land. It is well-known that surface emission, particularly over the range of frequencies to be included in GPM, is sensitive to land surface states, including soil properties, vegetation type and greenness, soil moisture, surface temperature, and snow cover, density, and grain size. Therefore, providing a robust capability to routinely provide these critical land states is essential to support GPM-era physical retrieval algorithms over land.

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Development of Grade 91 inelastic model for incorporation in ASME Division 5

This report describes a unified viscoplastic model for Grade 91 suitable for use with the Section III, Division 5 design by inelastic analysis procedures in the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code. The report identifies several key features a successful design inelastic model must capture along with critical aspects of the response of Grade 91 for elevated temperature loading conditions typical of expected reactor operating conditions. An inelastic model for Code design must capture the average response of a material including heat-to-heat and product form variations. This work develops a method for calibrating such a model to a large experimental database using genetic algorithm optimization. Finally, the report compares the final model to several specialized experimental tests to validate that it will be suitable for use in high temperature structural design. The techniques developed here can be applied to the remaining Section III, Division 5, Class A materials to develop a nonmandatory appendix to the Code describing inelastic material models suitable for use with the design by inelastic analysis procedures.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Version 4 CALIPSO Imaging Infrared Radiometer ice and liquid water cloud microphysical properties – Part I: The retrieval algorithms

Following the release of the version 4 Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) data products from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) mission, a new version (version 4; V4) of the CALIPSO Imaging Infrared Radiometer (IIR) Level 2 data products has been developed. The IIR Level 2 data products include cloud effective emissivities and cloud microphysical properties such as effective diameter and ice or liquid water path estimates. Dedicated retrievals for water clouds were added in V4, taking advantage of the high sensitivity of the IIR retrieval technique to small particle sizes. This paper (Part I) describes the improvements in the V4 algorithms compared to those used in the version 3 (V3) release, while results will be presented in a companion (Part II) paper. The IIR Level 2 algorithm has been modified in the V4 data release to improve the accuracy of the retrievals in clouds of very small (close to 0) and very large (close to 1) effective emissivities. To reduce biases at very small emissivities that were made evident in V3, the radiative transfer model used to compute clear-sky brightness temperatures over oceans has been updated and tuned for the simulations using Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) data to match IIR observations in clear-sky conditions. Furthermore, the clear-sky mask has been refined compared to V3 by taking advantage of additional information now available in the V4 CALIOP 5 km layer products used as an input to the IIR algorithm. After sea surface emissivity adjustments, observed and computed brightness temperatures differ by less than ±0.2 K at night for the three IIR channels centered at 08.65, 10.6, and 12.05 µm, and inter-channel biases are reduced from several tens of Kelvin in V3 to less than 0.1 K in V4. We have also improved retrievals in ice clouds having large emissivity by refining the determination of the radiative temperature needed for emissivity computation. The initial V3 estimate, namely the cloud centroid temperature derived from CALIOP, is corrected using a parameterized function of temperature difference between cloud base and top altitudes, cloud absorption optical depth, and CALIOP multiple scattering correction factor. As shown in Part II, this improvement reduces the low biases at large optical depths that were seen in V3 and increases the number of retrievals. As in V3, the IIR microphysical retrievals use the concept of microphysical indices applied to the pairs of IIR channels at 12.05 and 10.6 µm and at 12.05 and 08.65 µm. The V4 algorithm uses ice look-up tables (LUTs) built using two ice habit models from the recent “TAMUice2016” database, namely the single-hexagonal-column model and the eight-element column aggregate model, from which bulk properties are synthesized using a gamma size distribution. Four sets of effective diameters derived from a second approach are also reported in V4. Here, the LUTs are analytical functions relating microphysical index applied to IIR channels 12.05 and 10.6 µm and effective diameter as derived from in situ measurements at tropical and midlatitudes during the Tropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling (TC4) and Small Particles in Cirrus Science and Operations Plan (SPARTICUS) field experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

On-policy learning-based deep reinforcement learning assessment for building control efficiency and stability

Artificial intelligence technologies have emerged as a game changer not only in specific applications such as image recognition and machine translation but also in many scientific domains. In particular, as deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has shown great success in complex control problems, DRL-based control has been considered as a potential solution to efficiently control and manage building systems. However, broad assessment of DRL-based building control is still required to characterize their pros and cons in comparison with conventional building control methods (e.g., rule-based feedback controls). In this paper, we assessed DRL-based controls with on-policy learning-based algorithms and continuous control actions for cooling control of large office buildings in the summer season to minimize whole-building energy use and occupant discomfort. We compared DRL-based control methods with two baseline control methods: (1) a pre-determined schedule with supply temperature and static pressure setpoints, and (2) advanced reset method that adjusts setpoints based on heuristic rules, i.e., ASHRAE Guideline 36. We also tested the DRL algorithms to evaluate their performances in multiple climate locations. We found that DRL-based control methods outperformed the baseline control methods in terms of energy savings while maintaining a thermal comfort. DRL reduced energy use between ~4%–22% on average compared to the baseline methods, depending on climate location. We also evaluated DRL-based control in terms of control stability and showed that DRL-based methods should address the span of hardware lifetimes in practical operations.

control stability↗
NASA NTRS1998

Land Surface Temperature Measurements from EOD MODIS Data

We made more tests of the version 2.0 daily Level 2 and Level 3 Land-Surface Temperature (LST) code (PGE 16) jointly with the MODIS Science Data Support Team (SDST). After making minor changes a few times, the PGE16 code has been successfully integrated and tested by MODIS SDST, and recently has passed the inspection at the Goddard Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). We conducted a field campaign in the area of Mono Lake, California on March 10, 1998, in order to validate the MODIS LST algorithm in cold and dry conditions. Two MODIS Airborne Simulator (MAS) flights were completed during the field campaign, one before noon, and another around 10 pm PST. The weather condition for the daytime flight was perfect: clear sky, the column water vapor measured by radiosonde around 0.3 cm, and wind speed less than a half meter per second. The quality of MAS data is good for both day and night flights. We analyzed the noise equivalent temperature difference (NE(delta)T) and the calibration accuracy of the seven MAS thermal infrared (TIR) bands, that are used in the MODIS day/night LST algorithm, with daytime MAS data over four flat homogeneous study areas: two on Grant Lake (covered with ice and snow, respectively), one on Mono Lake, and another on the snow field site where we made field measurements. NE(delta)T ranges from 0.2 to 0.6 k for bands 42, 45, 46, and 48. It ranges from 0.8 to 1.1 K for bands 30-32. The day and night MAS data have been used to retrieve surface temperature and emissivities in these bands. A simple method to correct the effect of night thin cirrus has been incorporated into the day/night LST algorithm in dry atmospheric conditions. We compared the retrieved surface temperatures with those measured with TIR spectrometer, radiometers and thermistors in the snow test site, and the retrieved emissivity images with topographic map. The daytime LST values match well within 1 K. The night LST retrieved from MAS data is 3.3 K colder than those from field measurements most likely because of the effect of haze at night. The good agreement among the regional averaged surface temperatures obtained from LST values retrieved at different resolutions increased our confidence in the MODIS day/night LST algorithm.

Wan, Zheng-Ming↗
DOE OSTI2019

Controllable 3D Manufacturing System

Next generation Small Modular Reactor (SMR) requires new and improved techniques, instrumentations and strategies to deal with the anticipated high radiation and high temperature environment (esp. in reactors). Component manufacturing technologies will be required that take full advantage of the new 3-D printing methods employed by additive manufacturing technologies. These manufacturing methods must be capable of producing components or sub components on a limited production basis and with nuclear quality. Based on our success in developing a variety of award-winning high energy and high power ultrafast fiber lasers and our pioneered work in fs laser 3D manufacturing (US patents, 9643361 and 9770760), PolarOnyx proposes to use tunable fiber lasers to develop smart AM & SM system to make nuclear quality components for SMR. In Phase I, we have achieved critical milestones and experimentally demonstrated the most critical functions of the proposed controllable laser AM: • Developed and investigated a series of NDI sensing technologies. Combination of IR thermal image and high resolution visible camera provides a powerful tool to characterize thermal distribution and defects. • Built an in-line laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) to real time detect compositions of powder and parts, and melting temperature of the melting pool. It proves the LIBS is a very powerful tool to precisely guide the process. • Filed a patent (Application number 16378485) for integrating IR and visible images and LIBS for intelligent AM system. • Developed control algorithm and proved it works well for overhang experiment. • Achieved high density (>99%) and excellent mechanical properties. • Succeeded in developing a working and reliable calibration method to extract true temperature distribution during AM process. • Demonstrated spatial and temporal pulse shaping methods, and impact on microstructures. • Filed one utility patent • Laid out a solid path for phase II to work on controllable 3D manufacturing system development and optimization and to make components with nuclear quality. Our proprietary fs fiber laser based AM processing offers an ultimate solution for manufacturing high temperature components with high strength for nuclear systems. The 3D AM system in conjunction with the intelligent sensing and control is energy efficient and cost effective for the growing nuclear industries. Successful development of the proposed AM technology will provide a vital tool to solve existing and potential issues. This technology will be directly applied in the 3D printing area with combined market share of $10(s) of billions. The achievement in this research will have significant and wide social, scientific, and economic impacts by providing affordable low cost intelligent AM/SM systems, laser micromachining systems, improving energy efficiency, and reducing fabrication and operational cost. Having demonstrated the proof of concept in Phase I, we will prototype the controllable AM/SM system and investigate the efficiency and qualification of fabricating various nuclear quality components in Phase II.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2019

ADP-Based Home Energy Management System: A Case Study Using Dynamo: Preprint

This paper explores Home Energy Management System (HEMS) algorithms to minimize household cost while maintaining comfort when faced with uncertain weather, and demand. Specifically, we consider a HEMS that optimizes forward looking schedules for a home's heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC); water heater (WH); and electric vehicle (EV) charging while considering uncertainty in outside temperature, hot water usage, and non-controllable load (NCL). We adopt a Dynamic Programming (DP) formulation and utilize the Dynamic programming for Adaptive Modeling and Optimization (DYNAMO) toolkit to implement DP and approximate dynamic programming (ADP) algorithms. Simulation results under a single tariff plan compare the quality of the solution generated by ADP to that of DP, and show significant improvement in computation time while maintaining acceptable solution accuracy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive cold-load pickup considerations in 2-stage microgrid unit commitment for enhancing microgrid resilience

In an extended main grid outage spanning multiple days, load shedding serves as a critical mechanism for islanded microgrids to maintain essential power and energy reserves that are indispensable for fulfilling reliability and resiliency mandates. However, using load shedding for such purposes leads to increasing occurrence of cold load pickup (CLPU) events. Here, this study presents an innovative adaptive CLPU model that introduces a method for determining and incorporating parameters related to CLPU power and energy requirements into a two-stage microgrid unit commitment (MGUC) algorithm. In contrast to the traditional fixed-CLPU-curve approach, this model calculates CLPU duration, power, and energy demands by considering outage durations and ambient temperature variations within the MGUC process. By integrating the adaptive CLPU model into the MGUC problem formulation, it allows for the optimal allocation of energy resources throughout the entire scheduling horizon to fulfill the CLPU requirements when scheduling multiple CLPU events. The performance of the enhanced MGUC algorithm considering CLPU needs is assessed using actual load and photovoltaic (PV) data. Simulation results demonstrate significant improvements in dispatch optimality evaluated by the amount of load served, customer comfort, energy storage operation, and adherence to energy schedules. These enhancements collectively contribute to reliable and resilient microgrid operation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

An efficient reconstruction algorithm for diffusion on triangular grids using the nodal discontinuous Galerkin method

High-energy-density (HED) hydrodynamics studies such as those relevant to inertial confinement fusion and astrophysics require highly disparate densities, temperatures, viscosities, and other diffusion parameters over relatively short spatial scales. This presents a challenge for high-order accurate methods to effectively resolve the hydrodynamics at these scales, particularly in the presence of highly disparate diffusion. A significant volume of engineering and physics applications use an unstructured discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method developed based on the finite element mesh generation and algorithmic framework. This work discusses the application of an affine reconstructed nodal DG method for unstructured grids of triangles. Solving the diffusion terms in the DG method is non-trivial due to the solution representations being piecewise continuous. Hence, the diffusive flux is not defined on the interface of elements. The proposed numerical approach reconstructs a smooth solution in a parallelogram that is enclosed by the quadrilateral formed by two adjacent triangle elements. The interface between these two triangles is the diagonal of the enclosed parallelogram. Similar to triangles, the mapping of parallelograms from a physical domain to a reference domain is an affine mapping, which is necessary for an accurate and efficient implementation of the numerical algorithm. Thus, all computations can still be performed on the reference domain, which promotes efficiency in computation and storage. This reconstruction does not make assumptions on choice of polynomial basis. Reconstructed DG algorithms have previously been developed for modal implementations of the convection–diffusion equations. However, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first practical guideline that has been proposed for applying the reconstructed algorithm on a nodal discontinuous Galerkin method with a focus on accuracy and efficiency. As a result, the algorithm is demonstrated on a number of benchmark cases as well as a challenging substantive problem in HED hydrodynamics with highly disparate diffusion parameters.

Computational efficiency↗
NASA NTRS1985

Solution algorithms for nonlinear transient heat conduction analysis employing element-by-element iterative strategies

The particular problems investigated in the present study arise from nonlinear transient heat conduction. One of two types of nonlinearities considered is related to a material temperature dependence which is frequently needed to accurately model behavior over the range of temperature of engineering interest. The second nonlinearity is introduced by radiation boundary conditions. The finite element equations arising from the solution of nonlinear transient heat conduction problems are formulated. The finite element matrix equations are temporally discretized, and a nonlinear iterative solution algorithm is proposed. Algorithms for solving the linear problem are discussed, taking into account the form of the matrix equations, Gaussian elimination, cost, and iterative techniques. Attention is also given to approximate factorization, implementational aspects, and numerical results.

Winget, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Assimilation of Multi-Frequency, Multi-Polarization Passive Microwave Brightness Temperature Observations in North America over Snow-Covered Regions Using Support Vector Machines

Accurately estimating the mass of water within a snowpack (a.k.a. snow water equivalent, or SWE) across regional or continental scales is a challenge. In order to overcome some of the limitations in traditional SWE retrieval algorithms or radiative transfer-based snow emission models, this study explores the use of a support vector machine (SVM) to merge an advanced land surface model within a radiance emission (i.e., brightness temperature) assimilation framework. The goal of direct radiance assimilation is preferable as it avoids inconsistencies in the use of ancillary data between the assimilation system and the independently-generated geophysical retrieval. The impact of assimilating multiple observations simultaneously at different frequency and polarization combinations is then evaluated via comparisons to state-of-the-art SWE and snow depth products as well as available ground-based measurements across North America for the years 2002 through 2011. It is found that assimilation-derived estimates (relative to estimates without assimilation) tend to better agree with state-of-the-art snow products. In addition, an overall improvement in goodness-of-fit statistics for snow estimates is achieved via assimilation when compared against ground-based snow measurements. In addition, these improvements in snow are shown to translate into improvements in streamflow predictions. Specifically, 11 out of the 13 major snow-dominated basins investigated have improved cumulative runoff estimates versus ground-based discharge measurements compared to the no-assimilation scenario. It is proven that a SVM can serve as an efficient and effective observation operator for a snow mass analysis within a radiance assimilation system.

Xue, Yuan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simultaneous prediction of structural properties in epitaxially–grown GaN with quantum and conventional multi–output learning algorithms

Hundreds of GaN thin film crystal plasma–assisted molecular beam epitaxy synthesis experiment records spanning two decades were organized into a dataset correlating the growth experiment design parameters with discrete, binary determinations of crystallinity and surface morphology. Conventional data science techniques as well as both quantum and classical multi–output supervised machine learning algorithms were implemented to investigate the relationships between the operating parameter data and the structural figures of merit. Correlation coefficients, decision tree nodes, p–values, and SHAP values all support substrate temperature and gallium effusion cell conditions as being statistically significant for simultaneously influencing GaN crystallinity and surface morphology. Here, a conventional deep neural network learned best from the data, followed by a quantum–classical hybrid gradient boosting algorithm. When combined with calculations of uncertainty intervals based on VennAbers predictors, machine learning predictions of both structural properties show good agreement with results reported in published experimental literature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2005

Combined Radar and Radiometer Analysis of Precipitation Profiles for a Parametric Retrieval Algorithm

A methodology to analyze precipitation profiles using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and precipitation radar (PR) is proposed. Rainfall profiles are retrieved from PR measurements, defined as the best-fit solution selected from precalculated profiles by cloud-resolving models (CRMs), under explicitly defined assumptions of drop size distribution (DSD) and ice hydrometeor models. The PR path-integrated attenuation (PIA), where available, is further used to adjust DSD in a manner that is similar to the PR operational algorithm. Combined with the TMI-retrieved nonraining geophysical parameters, the three-dimensional structure of the geophysical parameters is obtained across the satellite-observed domains. Microwave brightness temperatures are then computed for a comparison with TMI observations to examine if the radar-retrieved rainfall is consistent in the radiometric measurement space. The inconsistency in microwave brightness temperatures is reduced by iterating the retrieval procedure with updated assumptions of the DSD and ice-density models. The proposed methodology is expected to refine the a priori rain profile database and error models for use by parametric passive microwave algorithms, aimed at the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, as well as a future TRMM algorithms.

Masunaga, Hirohiko↗
DOE OSTI2022

Techno-Economic Analysis of Recuperated Joule-Brayton Pumped Thermal Energy Storage

This article describes a techno-economic model for pumped thermal energy storage systems based on recuperated Joule-Brayton cycles and two-tank liquid storage. Models have been developed for each component, with particular emphasis on the heat exchangers. Economic metrics such as the power and energy capital costs (i.e., per-kW and per-kWh capacity) and levelized cost of storage are evaluated by gathering numerous cost correlations from the literature, thereby enabling estimates of uncertainty. It is found that the use of heat exchangers with effectivenesses up to 0.95 is economically worthwhile, but higher values lead to rapidly escalating component size and system cost. Several hot storage fluids are considered; those operating at the highest temperatures (chloride salts) improve the round-trip efficiency but the benefit is marginal and may not warrant the additional material costs and risk when compared to lower-temperature nitrate salts. Cost-efficiency trade-offs are explored using a multi-objective optimization algorithm, yielding optimal designs with round-trip efficiencies in the range 59-72% and corresponding levelized storage costs of 0.12 0.03 and 0.38 0.10 $/kWhe. Lifetime costs are competitive with lithium-ion batteries for discharging durations greater than 6 h under current scenarios.

Carnot battery↗
DOE OSTI2023

Insights into Constraining Rate Coefficients in Fuel Oxidation Mechanisms Using Genetic Algorithm Optimization

Accurate fuel oxidation mechanisms can enable predictive capabilities that aid in advancing combustion technologies. High-level computational kinetics can yield reasonable rate coefficients with uncertainties, in some cases, below a factor of 2. Computed rate coefficients can be constrained further by optimizing against experimental data. Here, we explore the application of genetic algorithm (GA) optimization to constrain computed rate coefficients in complex fuel oxidation mechanisms in conjunction with temperature-dependent species mole fractions from jet-stirred reactor (JSR) measurements. Cyclohexane is a model candidate for understanding the reactivity of cyclic fuels. In this work, we optimize the rate coefficients of the most recent literature cyclohexane mechanism, which incorporates theoretically computed rate coefficients for the reaction networks stemming from the first and second O 2 addition pathways, against the experimental results of two separate literature JSR studies. Optimization consistency is evaluated by carrying out three GA optimizations: fitting to the temperature-dependent species mole fractions in each JSR experiment separately and simultaneously fitting the species mole fractions in both experiments. Local sensitivity analyses are used to identify five influential low-temperature oxidation reactions for optimization. Although the three optimizations do not yield identical rate coefficients, the direction of change in all five rate coefficients is consistent among the three optimizations. Performance of the models from the three optimizations is assessed against literature ignition delay times with differences in the level of agreement observed among the different optimizations. In conclusion, comparisons are made with our recent optimization work of a cyclopentane oxidation master-equation model against time-resolved species concentrations, and insights and improvements of the strategy for constraining rate coefficients using GA optimization are discussed.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Short-Term Precipitation Forecast Based on the PERSIANN System and LSTM Recurrent Neural Networks

Short-term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting is important for flood forecasting, early flood warning, and natural hazard management. This study proposes a precipitation forecast model by extrapolating Cloud-Top Brightness Temperature (CTBT) using advanced Deep Neural Networks, and applying the forecasted CTBT into an effective rainfall retrieval algorithm to obtain the Short-term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (0–6 hr). To achieve such tasks, we propose a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), respectively. The precipitation forecasts obtained from our proposed framework, (i.e., LSTM combined with PERSIANN) are compared with a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Persistency method, and Farneback optical flow each combined with PERSIANN algorithm and the numerical model results from the first version of Rapid Refresh (RAPv1.0) over three regions in the United States, including the states of Oregon, Oklahoma, and Florida. We report our experiments indicate better statistics, such as correlation coefficient and root-mean-square error, for the CTBT forecasts from the proposed LSTM compared to the RNN, Persistency, and the Farneback method. The precipitation forecasts from the proposed LSTM and PERSIANN framework has demonstrated better statistics compared to the RAPv1.0 numerical forecasts and PERSIANN estimations from RNN, Persistency, and Farneback projections in terms of Probability of Detection, False Alarm Ratio, Critical Success Index, correlation coefficient, and root-mean-square error, especially in predicting the convective rainfalls. The proposed method shows superior capabilities in short-term forecasting over compared methods, and has the potential to be implemented globally as an alternative short-term forecast product.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗