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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Grid-tied PV battery systems.

Grid tied PV energy smoothing was implemented by using a valve regulated lead-acid (VRLA) battery as a temporary energy storage device to both charge and discharge as required to smooth the inverter energy output from the PV array. Inverter output was controlled by the average solar irradiance over the previous 1h time interval. On a clear day the solar irradiance power curve is offset by about 1h, while on a variable cloudy day the inverter output power curve will be smoothed based on the average solar irradiance. Test results demonstrate that this smoothing algorithm works very well. Battery state of charge was more difficult to manage because of the variable system inefficiencies. Testing continued for 30-days and established consistent operational performance for extended periods of time under a wide variety of resource conditions. Both battery technologies from Exide (Absolyte) and East Penn (ALABC Advanced) proved to cycle well at a Partial state of charge over the time interval tested.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Western Wind and Solar Integration Study Phase 2 (Presentation)

This presentation accompanies Phase 2 of the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, a follow-on to Phase 1, which examined the operational impacts of high penetrations of variable renewable generation on the electric power system in the West and was one of the largest variable generation studies to date. High penetrations of variable generation can induce cycling of fossil-fueled generators. Cycling leads to wear-and-tear costs and changes in emissions. Phase 2 calculated these costs and emissions, and simulated grid operations for a year to investigate the detailed impact of variable generation on the fossil-fueled fleet. The presentation highlights the scope of the study and results.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Recovery of resources for advanced life support space applications: effect of retention time on biodegradation of two crop residues in a fed-batch, continuous stirred tank reactor

Bioreactor retention time is a key process variable that will influence costs that are relevant to long distance space travel or long duration space habitation. However. little is known about the effects of this parameter on the microbiological treatment options that are being proposed for Advanced Life Support (ALS) systems. Two bioreactor studies were designed to examine this variable. In the first one, six retention times ranging from 1.3 to 21.3 days--were run in duplicate, 81 working-volume continuous stirred tank reactors (CSTR) that were fed ALS wheat residues. Ash-free dry weight loss, carbon mineralization, soluble TOC reduction, changes in fiber content (cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin), bacterial numbers, and mineral recoveries were monitored. At short retention times--1.33 days--biodegradation was poor (total: 16-20%, cellulose - 12%, hemicellulose - 28%) but soluble TOC was decreased by 75-80% and recovery of major crop inorganic nutrients was adequate, except for phosphorus. A high proportion of the total bacteria (ca. 83%) was actively respiring. At the longest retention time tested, 21.3 days, biodegradation was good (total: 55-60%, cellulose ca. 70%, hemicellulose - ca. 55%) and soluble TOC was decreased by 80%. Recovery of major nutrients, except phosphorus, remained adequate. A very low proportion of total bacteria was actively respiring (ca. 16%). The second bioreactor study used potato residue to determine if even shorter retention times could be used (range 0.25-2.0 days). Although overall biodegradation deteriorated, the degradation of soluble TOC continued to be ca. 75%. We conclude that if the goal of ALS bioprocessing is maximal degradation of crop residues, including cellulose, then retention times of 10 days or longer will be needed. If the goal is to provide inorganic nutrients with the smallest volume/weight bioreactor possible, then a retention time of 1 day (or less) is sufficient.

Non-NASA Center↗

Scalable Comparative Visualization of Ensembles of Call Graphs

Optimizing the performance of large-scale parallel codes is critical for efficient utilization of computing resources. Code developers often explore various execution parameters, such as hardware configurations, system software choices, and application parameters, and are interested in detecting and understanding bottlenecks in different executions. They often collect hierarchical performance profiles represented as call graphs, which combine performance metrics with their execution contexts. The crucial task of exploring multiple call graphs together is tedious and challenging because of the many structural differences in the execution contexts and significant variability in the collected performance metrics (e.g., execution runtime). In this paper, we present Ensemble CallFlow to support the exploration of ensembles of call graphs using new types of visualizations, analysis, graph operations, and features. We introduce ensemble-Sankey , a new visual design that combines the strengths of resource-flow (Sankey) and box-plot visualization techniques. Whereas the resource-flow visualization can easily and intuitively describe the graphical nature of the call graph, the box plots overlaid on the nodes of Sankey convey the performance variability within the ensemble. Our interactive visual interface provides linked views to help explore ensembles of call graphs, e.g., by facilitating the analysis of structural differences, and identifying similar or distinct call graphs. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness and usefulness of our design through case studies on large-scale parallel codes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

FORCE-DISPATCHES Integration - Initial Demonstration

Integrated energy systems (IES) combine, in mutually beneficial ways, power from variable renewable energy sources and nuclear power plants (NPP) to improve economic viability under uncertain market and weather conditions. The open-source Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite, developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), has enabled comprehensive modeling and simulation of IES. The capabilities within FORCE include grid portfolio optimization through the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) and the transient process model analysis library HYBRID, among others. Continuous efforts and investments from the IES programs have been made to expand and improve the versatility of the FORCE toolset in fiscal year 2022. Code-coupling and cross-tool communication have been important methods for improving this versatility. This report focuses on an additional workflow in the HERON tool for capacity and dispatch stochastic optimization through integration with the external tool Design Integration and Synthesis Platform to Advance Tightly Coupled Hybrid Energy Systems (DISPATCHES). DISPATCHES was primarily developed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory, in collaboration with other national laboratories, which included INL, universities, and industry partners. It is coupled to a library of algebraic models for specific plant components, and to a framework for stochastic optimization different from that provided in the current Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN)-running-RAVEN algorithm in HERON. HERON currently conducts stochastic optimization via an outer-inner loop: it optimizes over variable capacity on the outer loop, and at each step within the capacity parameter space, conducts an inner optimization over scenarios (of market signals, demand, and/or weather patterns) and hourly dispatch throughout a user-specified number of years. On the other hand, DISPATCHES conducts stochastic optimization via an “all-at-once” strategy in which capacity variables are optimized at the same level as dispatch variables, as all scenarios are considered at once. The latter method works especially well for projects of limited size and project length, as the necessary computational power and memory increases with the number of variables and scenarios. The new capability to use the DISPATCHES workflow in HERON enhances standalone simulations by leveraging FORCE tools—namely, the economic metrics from the Tool for Economic Analysis (TEAL) and reduced-order model (ROM) sampling from RAVEN. The initial demonstration of the DISPATCHES workflow simulates an existing nuclear-case flowsheet within the DISPATCHES repository—this models a NPP with a secondary revenue stream for hydrogen production. Electrical output from the plant is converted to hydrogen via a proton-exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer, hydrogen tanks are used for storage, and an additional turbine is added for hydrogen combustion. Continued work regarding this FORCE-DISPATCHES integration will include automatic generation of DISPATCHES models from HERON inputs, offering analysts the option of using either the RAVEN-runsRAVEN or DISPATCHES workflow to solve technoeconomic optimization problems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Integrating Variable Renewable Energy in Electric Power Markets: Best Practices from International Experience (Fact Sheet)

Many countries--reflecting very different geographies, markets, and power systems--are successfully managing high levels of variable renewable energy (RE) on the grid. Australia (South Australia), Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Spain, and the United States (Colorado and Texas), for example, have effectively integrated variable RE utilizing diverse approaches. Analysis of the results from these case studies reveals a wide range of mechanisms that can be used to accommodate high penetrations of variable RE (e.g., from new market designs to centralized planning). Nevertheless, the myriad approaches collectively suggest that governments can best enable variable RE grid integration by implementing best practices in five areas of intervention: lead public engagement, particularly for new transmission; coordinate and integrate planning; develop rules for market evolution that enable system flexibility; expand access to diverse resources and geographic footprint of operations; and improve system operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A novel digital pulse processing architecture for nuclear instrumentation

The field of nuclear instrumentation covers a wide range of applications, including counting, spectrometry, pulse shape discrimination and multi-channel coincidence. These applications are the topic of many researches, new algorithms and implementations are constantly proposed thanks to advances in digital signal processing. However, these improvements are not yet implemented in instrumentation devices. This is especially true for neutron-gamma discrimination applications which traditionally use charge comparison method while literature proposes other algorithms based on frequency domain or wavelet theory which show better performances. Another example is pileups which are generally rejected while pileup correction algorithms also exist. These processes are traditionally performed offline due to two issues. The first is the Poissonian characteristic of the signal, composed of random arrival pulses which requires to current architectures to work in data flow. The second is the real-time requirement, which implies losing pulses when the pulse rate is too high. Despite the possibility of treating the pulses independently from each other, current architectures paralyze the acquisition of the signal during the processing of a pulse. This loss is called dead-time. These two issues have led current architectures to use dedicated solutions based on re-configurable components like Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) to overcome the need of performance necessary to deal with dead-time. However, dedicated hardware algorithm implementations on re-configurable technologies are complex and time-consuming. For all these reasons, a programmable Digital pulse Processing (DPP) architecture in a high level language such as Cor C++ which can reduce dead-time would be worthwhile for nuclear instrumentation. This would reduce prototyping and test duration by reducing the level of hardware expertise to implement new algorithms. However, today's programmable solutions do not meet the need of performance to operate online and not allow scaling with the increase in the number of measurement channel. That is why an innovative DPP architecture is proposed in this paper. This architecture is able to overcome dead-time while being programmable and is flexible with the number of measurement channel. Proposed architecture is based on an innovative execution model for pulse processing applications which can be summarized as follow. The signal is not composed of pulses only, consequently, pulses processing does not have to operate on the entire signal. Therefore, the first step of our proposal is pulse extraction by the use of dedicated components named pulse extractors. The triggering step can be achieved after the analog-to-digital conversion without any signal shaping or filtering stages. Pileup detection and accurate pulse time stamping are done at this stage. Any application downstream this step can work on adaptive variable-sized array of samples simplifying pulse processing methods. Then, once the data flow is broken, it is possible to distribute pulses on Functional Units (FUs) which perform processing. As the date of each pulse is known, they can be processed individually out-of-order to provide the results. To manage the pulses distribution, a scheduler and an interconnection network are used. pulses are distributed on the first FU which is not busy without congesting the interconnection network. For this reason, the process duration does not result anymore in dead-time if there are enough FUs. FUs are designed to be standalone and to comprises at least a programmable general purpose processor (ARM, Microblaze) allowing the implementation of complex algorithms without any modification of the hardware. An acquisition chain is composed of a succession of algorithms which lead to organize our FUs as a software macro-pipeline, A simple approach consists in assigning one algorithm per FU. Consequently, the global latency becomes the worst latency of algorithms execution on FU. Moreover, as algorithms are executed locally - i.e. on a FU - this approach limits shared memory requirement. To handle multichannel, we propose FUs sharing, this approach maximize the chance to find a non-busy FU to process an incoming pulse. This is possible since each channel receive random event independently, the pulse extractors associated to them do not necessarily need to access simultaneously to all Computing resources at the same time to distribute their pulses. The major contribution of this paper is the proposition of an execution model and its associated hardware programmable architecture for digital pulse processing that can handle multiple acquisition channels while maintaining the scalability thanks to the use of shared resources. This execution model and associated architecture are validated by simulation of a cycle accurate architecture SystemC model. Proposed architecture shows promising results in terms of scalability while maintaining zero dead-time. This work also permit the sizing of hardware resources requirement required for a predefined set of applications. Future work will focus on the interconnection network and a scheduling policy that can exploit the variable-length of pulses. Then, the hardware implementation of this architecture will be performed and tested for a representative set of application.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Examination of Potential Benefits of an Energy Imbalance Market in the Western Interconnection

In the Western Interconnection, there is significant interest in improving approaches to wide-area coordinated operations of the bulk electric power system, in part because of the increasing penetration of variable generation. One proposed solution is an energy imbalance market. This study focused on that approach alone, with the goal of identifying the potential benefits of an energy imbalance market in the year 2020.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Applying a Crew Accommodations Resource Model to Future Space Vehicle Research

The success of research and development for human space flight depends heavily on modeling. In addition, the use of such models is especially critical at the earliest phase of research and development of any manned vehicle or habitat. NASA is currently studying various innovative and futuristic propulsion technologies to enable further exploration of space by untended as well as tended vehicles. Details such as vehicle mass, volume, shape and configuration are required variables to evaluate the success of the propulsion concepts. For tended vehicles, the impact of the crew's requirements on those parameters must be included. This is especially important on long duration missions where the crew requirements become more complex. To address these issues, a crew accommodations resource model, developed as a mission planning tool for human spaceflight (Stillwell, Boutros, & Connolly), was applied to a reference mission in order to estimate the volume and mass required to sustain a crew for a variety of long duration missions. The model, which compiled information from numerous different sources and contains various attributes which can be modified to enable comparisons across different dimensions, was instrumental in deriving volume and mass required for a tended long duration space flight. With the inclusion of some additional variables, a set of volume and mass requirements were provided to the project. If due consideration to crew requirements for volume and mass had not been entertained, the assumptions behind validation of the propulsion technology could have been found to be incorrect, possibly far into development of the technology or even into the design and build of test vehicles. The availability and use of such a model contributes significantly by increasing the accuracy of human space flight research and development activities and acts as a cost saving measure by preventing inaccurate assumptions from driving design decisions.

Blume, Jennifer Linda↗

Relationship of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission to Global Change Research

In late 2001, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission was approved as a new start by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). This new mission is motivated by a number of scientific questions that are posed over a range of space and time scales that generally fall within the discipline of the global water and energy cycle (GWEC). Recognizing that satellite rainfall datasets are now a foremost tool for understanding global climate variability out to decadal scales and beyond, for improving weather forecasting, and for producing better predictions of hydrometeorological processes including short-term hazardous flooding and seasonal fresh water resources assessment, a comprehensive and internationally sanctioned global measuring strategy has led to the GPM mission. The GPM mission plans to expand the scope of rainfall measurement through use of a multi-member satellite constellation that will be contributed by a number of world nations. This talk overviews the GPM scientific research program that has been fostered within NASA, then focuses on scientific progress that is being made in various research areas in the course of the mission formulation phase that are of interest to the global change scientific community. This latter part of the talk addresses research issues that have become central to the GPM science implementation plan concerning: (1) the rate of global water cycling through the atmosphere and surface and the relationship of precipitation variability to the sustained rate of the water cycle; (2) the relationship between climate change and cloud macrophysical- microphysical processes; and (3) the general improvement in measuring precipitation at the fundamental microphysical level that will take place during the GPM era and an explanation of how these improvements are expected to come about.

Smith, Eric A.↗

A seamless approach for evaluating climate models across spatial scales

In regions of the world where topography varies significantly with distance, most global climate models (GCMs) have spatial resolutions that are too coarse to accurately simulate key meteorological variables that are influenced by topography, such as clouds, precipitation, and surface temperatures. One approach to tackle this challenge is to run climate models of sufficiently high resolution in those topographically complex regions such as the North American Regionally Refined Model (NARRM) subset of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SM v2). Although high-resolution simulations are expected to provide unprecedented details of atmospheric processes, running models at such high resolutions remains computationally expensive compared to lower-resolution models such as the E3SM Low Resolution (LR). Moreover, because regionally refined and high-resolution GCMs are relatively new, there are a limited number of observational datasets and frameworks available for evaluating climate models with regionally varying spatial resolutions. As such, we developed a new framework to quantify the added value of high spatial resolution in simulating precipitation over the contiguous United States (CONUS). To determine its viability, we applied the framework to two model simulations and an observational dataset. We first remapped all the data into Hierarchical Equal-Area Iso-Latitude Pixelization (HEALPix) pixels. HEALPix offers several mathematical properties that enable seamless evaluation of climate models across different spatial resolutions including its equal-area and partitioning properties. The remapped HEALPix-based data are used to show how the spatial variability of both observed and simulated precipitation changes with resolution increases. This study provides valuable insights into the requirements for achieving accurate simulations of precipitation patterns over the CONUS. It highlights the importance of allocating sufficient computational resources to run climate models at higher temporal and spatial resolutions to capture spatial patterns effectively. Furthermore, the study demonstrates the effectiveness of the HEALPix framework in evaluating precipitation simulations across different spatial resolutions. This framework offers a viable approach for comparing observed and simulated data when dealing with datasets of varying spatial resolutions. By employing this framework, researchers can extend its usage to other climate variables, datasets, and disciplines that require comparing datasets with different spatial resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity study of Space Station Freedom operations cost and selected user resources

The results of sensitivity studies performed to estimate probable ranges for four key Space Station parameters using the Space Station Freedom's Model for Estimating Space Station Operations Cost (MESSOC) are discussed. The variables examined are grouped into five main categories: logistics, crew, design, space transportation system, and training. The modification of these variables implies programmatic decisions in areas such as orbital replacement unit (ORU) design, investment in repair capabilities, and crew operations policies. The model utilizes a wide range of algorithms and an extensive trial logistics data base to represent Space Station operations. The trial logistics data base consists largely of a collection of the ORUs that comprise the mature station, and their characteristics based on current engineering understanding of the Space Station. A nondimensional approach is used to examine the relative importance of variables on parameters.

Accola, Anne↗

Technoeconomic Analysis of Infrastructure Buildout Scenarios

The success of CCUS deployment in the southeast will depend on the optimized pipeline network from CO 2 point sources to geologic sinks for CO 2 storage. An optimal pipeline framework will reduce both environmental impacts and pipeline building cost. However, finding an optimal pipeline/transport infrastructure design is a non-trivial task and requires simultaneous usage of large volumes of data, computational resources, and a state-of-the-art simulator. Such a transport infrastructure model must consider point sources for CO 2 capture and associated volumes, sinks for CO 2 storage, and transportation from source to sink via pipeline networks. These considerations must be addressed simultaneously and systemically in an optimization process, in which a defined objective function (i.e., capital, variable CO 2 capture, transport, and storage cost function) is required to be minimized with the consideration of practical constraints (e.g., CO 2 flow through pipelines is less than the maximum capacity). Although optimization has been widely used in subsurface resources production and CO 2 storage, its application in large scale CCUS infrastructure design is rarely reported in the literature. SimCCS, developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory, is an open-source CCUS pipeline infrastructure design toolset that facilitates the optimization of pipeline infrastructure networks.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Large‐ and small‐seeded species have contrasting functional neighborhoods in a subtropical forest

Abstract Forest community composition is the outcome of multiple forces, including those that increase taxonomic and functional divergence and those that promote convergence in traits. The mechanisms underlying these forces may not operate homogenously within communities; individuals of different species are never perfectly mixed, and thus, species tend to be surrounded and interact with different subsets of species. In fact, taxonomic and functional composition of neighborhoods of different focal species can be highly variable. Here, we examine whether mechanisms driving species‐level neighborhoods relate to intrinsic characteristics of focal species such as differences in life‐history and resource‐uptake strategies and in turn relate to species survival. We focus on two key characteristics: (1) seed mass, which defines a dominant axis of life‐history strategies related to stress tolerance, and (2) understory light preferences that sort species from light‐demanding pioneers to shade‐tolerant. We monitored seedling communities over 10 yr in Puerto Rico and calculated neighborhood trait dispersion in species‐level neighborhoods using seven functional traits. We examined whether species‐level characteristics, seed mass and preferred light conditions, influence patterns of functional dispersion in seedling neighborhoods using linear models. Then, we examined how species‐level functional neighborhoods impact seedling survival. We found that small‐ and large‐seeded species diverge in the type of functional neighborhoods they associate with. Large‐seeded species associate with neighbors that are more similar than expected in leaf economic traits, but more different than expected in seed mass and leaf area traits, while the opposite was found for small‐seeded species. This variation in species functional neighborhood was important in determining seedling survival. In sum, our results suggest that divergent and convergent forces do not operate homogenously over entire communities. Their relative role changes in space, and on a species‐by‐species basis, probably with a deterministic foundation linked to traits such as seed mass.

Umaña, María Natalia↗

Hotter droughts alter resource allocation to chemical defenses in piñon pine

Abstract Heat and drought affect plant chemical defenses and thereby plant susceptibility to pests and pathogens. Monoterpenes are of particular importance for conifers as they play critical roles in defense against bark beetles. To date, work seeking to understand the impacts of heat and drought on monoterpenes has primarily focused on young potted seedlings, leaving it unclear how older age classes that are more vulnerable to bark beetles might respond to stress. Furthermore, we lack a clear picture of what carbon resources might be prioritized to support monoterpene synthesis under drought stress. To address this, we measured needle and woody tissue monoterpene concentrations and physiological variables simultaneously from mature piñon pines ( Pinus edulis ) from a unique temperature and drought manipulation field experiment. While heat had no effect on total monoterpene concentrations, trees under combined heat and drought stress exhibited ~ 85% and 35% increases in needle and woody tissue, respectively, over multiple years. Plant physiological variables like maximum photosynthesis each explained less than 10% of the variation in total monoterpenes for both tissue types while starch and glucose + fructose measured 1-month prior explained ~ 45% and 60% of the variation in woody tissue total monoterpene concentrations. Although total monoterpenes increased under combined stress, some key monoterpenes with known roles in bark beetle ecology decreased. These shifts may make trees more favorable for bark beetle attack rather than well defended, which one might conclude if only considering total monoterpene concentrations. Our results point to cumulative and synergistic effects of heat and drought that may reprioritize carbon allocation of specific non-structural carbohydrates toward defense.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Asynchronously parallel optimization solver for finding multiple minima

This paper proposes and analyzes an asynchronously parallel optimization algorithm for finding multiple, high-quality minima of nonlinear optimization problems. Our multistart algorithm considers all previously evaluated points when determining where to start or continue a local optimization run. Theoretical results show that, under certain assumptions, the algorithm almost surely starts a finite number of local optimization runs and identifies, or has a single local optimization run converging to, every minimum. The algorithm is applicable to general optimization settings, but our numerical results focus on the case when derivatives are unavailable. In numerical tests, a PYTHON implementation of the algorithm is shown to yield good approximations of many minima (including a global minimum), and this ability scales well with additional resources. Our implementation’s time to solution is shown also to scale well even when the time to evaluate the function evaluation is highly variable.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Predicting the climate change impacts on water-carbon coupling cycles for a loess hilly-gully watershed

Understanding the climate change impacts on water and carbon cycles is of great importance for comprehensive watershed management. Although many studies have been conducted on the future climate change impacts on either water cycle or carbon cycle, the potential impacts on water-carbon coupling cycles are still poorly understood. Here we used an integrated hydro-biochemical model (SWAT-DayCent) to quantitatively investigate the climate change impacts on water-carbon coupling cycles with a case study of typical loess hilly-gully watershed-the Jinghe River Basin (JRB) on the Loess Plateau. We used climate scenarios data derived under the three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) by five downscaled Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and set two future periods of 2020–2049 (near future, NF) and 2070–2099 (far future, FF). It was projected that the annual precipitation would generally decrease slightly during the NF period but increase by 4–11% during the FF period, while the maximum/minimum air temperatures would increase significantly. The average annual streamflow would decrease (with up to 20.1% under RCP8.5) and evapotranspiration (ET) would remain almost unchanged during the NF period; however, both of them would increase during the FF period. The net primary production (NPP) would be generally higher due to the CO2 fertilization, whereas the soil organic carbon would decrease across all scenarios due to the warmer climate. The NPP-ET was projected to be closely coupled across all scenarios, and this coupling was mainly controlled by the inter-annual variability (IAV) of precipitation. Moreover, the precipitation IAV combined with NPP-ET coupling could also jointly control the NPP variability in the JRB. These projections in water-carbon coupling cycles can be useful to make better-informed decisions for future water resources and ecosystem management of the loess hilly-gully regions.

climate change↗

Global estimates of the fitness advantage of SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron

Abstract New variants of SARS-CoV-2 show remarkable heterogeneity in their relative fitness over both time and space. In this paper we extend the tools available for estimating the selection strength for new SARS-CoV-2 variants to a hierarchical, mixed-effects, renewal equation model. This formulation allows us to estimate selection effects at the global level while incorporating both measured and unmeasured heterogeneity among countries. Applying this model to the spread of Omicron in forty countries, we find evidence for very strong but very heterogeneous selection effects. To test whether this heterogeneity is explained by differences in the immune landscape, we considered several measures of vaccination rates and recent population-level infection as covariates, finding moderately strong, statistically significant effects. We also found a significant positive correlation between the selection advantage of Delta and Omicron at the country level, suggesting that other region-specific explanatory variables of fitness differences do exist. Our method is implemented in the Stan programming language, can be run on standard consumer-grade computing resources, and will be straightforward to apply to future variants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗