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Validation of Atmosphere/Ionosphere Signals Associated with Major Earthquakes by Multi-Instrument Space-Borne and Ground Observations

The latest catastrophic earthquake in Japan (March 2011) has renewed interest in the important question of the existence of pre-earthquake anomalous signals related to strong earthquakes. Recent studies have shown that there were precursory atmospheric/ionospheric signals observed in space associated with major earthquakes. The critical question, still widely debated in the scientific community, is whether such ionospheric/atmospheric signals systematically precede large earthquakes. To address this problem we have started to investigate anomalous ionospheric / atmospheric signals occurring prior to large earthquakes. We are studying the Earth's atmospheric electromagnetic environment by developing a multisensor model for monitoring the signals related to active tectonic faulting and earthquake processes. The integrated satellite and terrestrial framework (ISTF) is our method for validation and is based on a joint analysis of several physical and environmental parameters (thermal infrared radiation, electron concentration in the ionosphere, lineament analysis, radon/ion activities, air temperature and seismicity) that were found to be associated with earthquakes. A physical link between these parameters and earthquake processes has been provided by the recent version of Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model. Our experimental measurements have supported the new theoretical estimates of LAIC hypothesis for an increase in the surface latent heat flux, integrated variability of outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) and anomalous variations of the total electron content (TEC) registered over the epicenters. Some of the major earthquakes are accompanied by an intensification of gas migration to the surface, thermodynamic and hydrodynamic processes of transformation of latent heat into thermal energy and with vertical transport of charged aerosols in the lower atmosphere. These processes lead to the generation of external electric currents in specific regions of the atmosphere and the modifications, by dc electric fields, in the ionosphere-atmosphere electric circuit. We retrospectively analyzed temporal and spatial variations of four different physical parameters (gas/radon counting rate, lineaments change, long-wave radiation transitions and ionospheric electron density/plasma variations) characterizing the state of the lithosphere/atmosphere coupling several days before the onset of the earthquakes. Validation processes consist in two phases: A. Case studies for seven recent major earthquakes: Japan (M9.0, 2011), China (M7.9, 2008), Italy (M6.3, 2009), Samoa (M7, 2009), Haiti (M7.0, 2010) and, Chile (M8.8, 2010) and B. A continuous retrospective analysis was preformed over two different regions with high seismicity- Taiwan and Japan for 2003-2009. Satellite, ground surface, and troposphere data were obtained from Terra/ASTER, Aqua/AIRS, POES and ionospheric variations from DEMETER and COSMIC-I data. Radon and GPS/TEC were obtaining from monitoring sites in Taiwan, Japan and Italy and from global ionosphere maps (GIM) respectively. Our analysis of ground and satellite data during the occurrence of 7 global earthquakes has shown the presence of anomalies in the atmosphere. Our results for Tohoku M9.0 earthquake show that on March 7th, 2011 (4 days before the main shock and 1 day before the M7.2 foreshock of March 8, 2011) a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed by the satellite data and an anomaly was developed near the epicenter. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. From March 3 to 11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground-based ionosondes, which returned to normal after the main earthquake. Similar approach for analyzing atmospheric and ionospheric parameters has been applied for China (M7.9, 2008), Italy (M6.3, 2009), Samoa (M7, 2009), Haiti (M7.0, 2010) and Chile (M8.8, 2010) eahquakes. Results have revealed the presence of related variations of these parameters implying their connection with the earthquake process. The second phase (B) of this validation included 102 major earthquakes (M>5.9) in Taiwan and Japan. We have found anomalous behavior before all of these events with no false negatives. False alarm ratio for false positives is less then 10% and has been calculated for the same month of the earthquake occurrence for the entire period of analysis (2003-2009). The commonalities for detecting atmospheric/ionospheric anomalies are: i.) Regularly appearance over regions of maximum stress (i.e., along plate boundaries); ii.) Anomaly existence over land and sea; and iii) association with M>5.9 earthquakes not deeper than 100km. Due to their long duration over the same region these anomalies are not consistent with a meteorological origin. Our initial results from the ISTF validation of multi-instrument space-borne and ground observations show a systematic appearance of atmospheric anomalies near the epicentral area, one to seven (average) days prior to the largest earthquakes, and suggest that it could be explained by a coupling process between the observed physical parameters and the pre-earthquake preparation processes.

Ouzounov, Dimitar↗

Simulation and Regression Modeling of Nasa'S X-59 Low-Boom Carpets Across America

NASA’s X-59 aircraft is predicted to produce a significantly quieter cruise sonic boom than traditional N-wave-producing aircraft. A propagation simulation study was undertaken to quantify loudness levels, exposure size, and variability of the X-59’s low-boom carpet using realistic atmospheric profiles across the contiguous United States of America (CONUS). Near-field pressure data of the X-59 in supersonic cruise from NASA’s fully unstructured Navier–Stokes three-dimensional (known as FUN3D) computational fluid dynamics code were propagated using NASA’s PCBoom code, which solves an enhanced Burgers equation along acoustic rays. Atmospheric profiles from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Forecast System Version 2 database were used for propagation at 138 locations across the CONUS. Carpets at each location were generated for aircraft headings in the four cardinal directions. Over one million X-59 carpets were generated in total. The effects of the heading, season, geography, and climate zone on boom levels and exposure size are presented. Multiple linear regression models were developed to estimate carpet width and loudness metrics across the CONUS. These results inform regulators and mission planners on expected variations in boom levels and carpet extent from atmospheric variations. Understanding potential carpet variability is important when planning community noise surveys using the X-59.

X-59↗

Simulation and Regression Modeling of X-59 Low-Boom Carpets Across America

The NASA X-59 aircraft is predicted to produce a significantly quieter cruise sonic boom than traditional N-wave-producing aircraft. A propagation simulation study was undertaken to quantify loudness levels, exposure size, and variability of the X-59 low-boom carpet using realistic atmospheric profiles across the contiguous United States of America (CONUS). Near-field pressure data of the X-59 in supersonic cruise from NASA’s fully unstructured Navier–Stokes three-dimensional (known as FUN3D) computational fluid dynamics code were propagated using NASA’s PCBoom code, which solves an enhanced Burgers equation along acoustic rays. Atmospheric profiles from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Forecast System Version 2 database were used for propagation at 138 locations across the CONUS. Carpets at each location were generated for aircraft headings in the four cardinal directions. Over one million X-59 carpets were generated in total. The effects of the heading, season, geography, and climate zone on boom levels and exposure size are presented. Multiple linear regression models were developed to estimate carpet width and loudness metrics across the CONUS. These results inform regulators and mission planners on expected variations in boom levels and carpet extent from atmospheric variations. Understanding potential carpet variability is important when planning community noise surveys using the X-59.

X-59↗

Influence of explicit Phaeocystis parameterizations on the global distribution of marine dimethyl sulfide

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a biogenic organosulfur compound which contributes strongly to marine aerosol mass and the determination of cloud condensation nuclei over the remote oceans. Since uncertainties in DMS flux to the atmosphere lead to large variations in climate forcing, the global DMS distribution has been the subject of increasingly complex dynamic simulations. DMS concentrations are directly controlled by marine ecosystems. Phaeocystis is a major DMS producer but is often omitted from global reduced sulfur mechanisms. Here we incorporate this phytoplankton group into the marine ecosystem-biogeochemical module of the Community Earth System Model. To examine its role in the ocean sulfur cycle, an earlier DMS model has been enhanced to include new knowledge gained over the last few years. Results from the baseline run show that simulated Phaeocystis biomass generally agrees with observations, with high concentrations near the Antarctic continent and between 50° and 60° north. Given the new explicit Phaeocystis representation, the DMS distribution shows significant improvements, especially regarding the amplitude and location of high-latitude peaks. The simulated global mean surface DMS value is 2.26 nM, comparable to an estimate of 2.34 nM from the latest climatology extrapolated based on observations. The total oceanic DMS source to the atmosphere is 20.4 Tg S/yr, on the low side of previous estimates. Comparisons with and without Phaeocystis show that the group dominates DMS distributions in temperate and cold waters, contributing 13% of the global flux. The proportion may increase as sea ice declines and should be considered in climate projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring Multiscale Earth System and Human-Earth System Dynamics in the Puget Sound Region

With its mountain-to-coast hydroclimate, strong influence of Pacific Ocean weather systems and climate patterns, and unique land use history with strong rural-to-urban gradients, the Puget Sound region is a natural laboratory for studying a number of complex processes in, and interactions among, different Earth and human systems. A 1-year scoping study was initiated by the Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling program of the Department of Energy’s Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research. It was intended to elucidate and highlight the rich opportunities Puget Sound offers to advance our understanding of and ability to simulate Earth system changes and human-Earth system interactions. A literature review, multi-day community workshop, and external input were used to develop this scoping study report. The report first summarizes scientific understanding and knowledge gaps associated with major regional systems, including atmosphere and climate, the land surface, coastal and marine processes, and human systems, as well as how these systems are changing over time. It then highlights some of the most notable extreme events in the region, including heat waves, atmospheric rivers, droughts, and wildfires. Finally, key research opportunities for Earth and environmental systems modeling in, above, and around Puget Sound are highlighted.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Neutrino physics from the cosmic microwave background and large scale structure

This is a report on the status and prospects of the quantification of neutrino properties through the cosmological neutrino background for the Cosmic Frontier of the Division of Particles and Fields Community Summer Study long-term planning exercise. Experiments planned and underway are prepared to study the cosmological neutrino background in detail via its influence on distance-redshift relations and the growth of structure. The program for the next decade described in this document, including upcoming spectroscopic galaxy surveys eBOSS and DESI and a new Stage-IV CMB polarization experiment CMB-S4, will achieve σ (σmν)(σmν) = 16 meV and σ (Neff)(Neff) = 0.020. Such a mass measurement will produce a high significance detection of non-zero σmνσmν, whose lower bound derived from atmospheric and solar neutrino oscillation data is about 58 meV. If neutrinos have a minimal normal mass hierarchy, this measurement will definitively rule out the inverted neutrino mass hierarchy, shedding light on one of the most puzzling aspects of the Standard Model of particle physics — the origin of mass. This precise a measurement of NeffNeff will allow for high sensitivity to any light and dark degrees of freedom produced in the big bang and a precision test of the standard cosmological model prediction that View the MathML sourceNeff=3.046.

Cosmic microwave background↗

Consistent Timing of Arctic Permafrost Loss Across the CESM1 Large Ensemble

Abstract The Arctic is especially vulnerable to climate change and is warming faster than the global average. Changes in this region pose a heightened threat due to the immense amount of carbon frozen as organic material in the soil. When permafrost thaws, organic material decays and releases as greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, contributing to further warming. A better understanding of the processes that influence permafrost degradation is needed to inform climate adaptation and mitigation planning. This study assesses changes to Arctic permafrost across 35 ensemble member simulations from the Community Earth System Model 1 Large Ensemble Project, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 21st century scenario. Most Arctic near‐surface permafrost is lost by 2100, but timing varies across regions and with soil depth. Internal climate variability, represented by differences between ensemble members, has a constrained influence on degradation timing due to relative consistency of summer temperature increases and insulation by winter snow cover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The ARM Climate Research Facility: A Review of Structure and Capabilities

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program (www.arm.gov) is a Department of Energy, Office of Science, climate research user facility that provides atmospheric observations from diverse climatic regimes around the world. Use of ARM data is free and available to anyone through the ARM data archive. ARM is approaching 20 years of operations. In recent years, the facility has grown to add two mobile facilities and an aerial facility to its network of fixed-location sites. Over the past year, ARM has enhanced its observational capabilities with a broad array of new instruments at its fixed and mobile sites and the aerial facility. Instruments include scanning millimeter- and centimeter-wavelength radars; water vapor, cloud/aerosol extinction, and Doppler lidars; a suite of aerosol instruments for measuring optical, physical, and chemical properties; instruments including eddy correlation systems to expand measurements of the surface and boundary layer; and aircraft probes for measuring cloud and aerosol properties. Taking full advantage of these instruments will involve the development of complex data products. This work is underway but will benefit from engagement with the broader scientific community. In this article we will describe the current status of the ARM program with an emphasis on developments over the past eight years since ARM was designated a DOE scientific user facility. We will also describe the new measurement capabilities and provide thoughts for how these new measurements can be used to serve the climate research community with an invitation to the community to engage in the development and use of these data products.

Atmospheric Radiation Measurement↗

Coupled-Circulation-Chemistry Studies with the Finite-Volume CCM: Trace Gas Transport in the Tropopause Region

A joint project between the Data Assimilation Office at NASA GSFC and NCAR involves linking the physical packages from the Community Climate Model (CCM) with the flux-form semi-Lagrangian dynamical core developed by Lin and Rood in the DAO. A further development of this model includes the implementation of a chemical package developed by Douglass and colleagues in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Branch at NASA GSFC. Results from this coupled dynamics-radiation-chemistry model will be presented, focussing on trace gas transport in the tropopause region.

Pawson, Steven↗

Use of MODIS Satellite Images and an Atmospheric Dust Transport Model to Evaluate Juniperus spp. Pollen Phenology and Dispersal

Pollen can be transported great distances. Van de Water et. al. reported Juniperus spp. pollen was transported 200-600 km. Hence local obse rvations of plant phenology may not be consistent with the timing and source of pollen collected by pollen sampling instruments. The DREAM (Dust REgional Atmospheric Model, Nickovic et al. 2001) is a verified model for atmospheric dust transport modeling using MODIS data produ cts to identify source regions and quantities of dust. We are modifyi ng the DREAM model to incorporate pollen transport. Pollen release wi ll be estimated based on MODIS derived phenology of Juniperus spp. communities. Ground based observations records of pollen release timing and quantities will be used as verification. This information will be used to support the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention?s Nat ional Environmental Public Health Tracking Program and the State of New Mexico environmental public health decision support for asthma and allergies alerts.

Luvall, Jeffrey C.↗

Data Tips: Learn How to Discover, Access and Analyze NASA GES DISC Data

At the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services (GES DISC), we strive to simplify data discovery and data access to our wide range of global climate data, concentrated primarily in the areas of atmospheric composition, atmospheric dynamics, global precipitation, solar irradiance, and several modeling data sets related to land surface hydrology. To help meet user needs, we will demonstrate how you can use the GES DISC knowledge-base resources (HowTo's) and we also encourage community contributions.

data tips↗

High Resolution Global Coupled Chemistry-Meteorology Simulations Using the NASA GEOS Composition Forecast System, GEOS-CF

We will give an overview of the NASA Global Earth Observing System Composition Forecast system (GEOS-CF), a high-resolution (0.25 degree) global composition model developed by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). This system combines the GEOS weather and aerosol model with the GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide a holistic view of atmospheric composition that captures a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, and fine particulate matter. The spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees (approx. 25 km) is fine enough to resolve local features such as nighttime ozone titration previously resolved only by urban or regional models. Furthermore, since there are no boundary conditions for a global model, the GEOS-CF captures large-scale processes such as long-range transport of air pollutants from forest fires. Comparisons against surface observations highlight the model’s overall capability to reproduce the diurnal variability of air pollutants under a variety of meteorological conditions. In addition, we show how machine learning techniques can be used to correct for sub-grid variability, which further improves model estimates at a given surface observation site. The GEOS-CF system offers a new tool for scientists and the public health community alike and is being developed jointly with several government and non-profit partners. As an example, we will show the use of GEOS-CF during the Satellite Coastal and Oceanic Atmospheric Pollution Experiment (SCOAPE). The campaign, conducted in collaboration between NASA and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), aims to investigate the response of onshore air quality to Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) oil and gas exploration, development and production. Detailed gas-phase chemistry, as provided by GEOS-CF, is critical to understand the formation of air pollution related to hydrocarbon emissions from offshore oil and gas activities. The accuracy of GEOS-CF can be further improved by incorporating detailed offshore emissions compiled by BOEM.

Knowland, K. Emma↗

Variability in Modelled Airborne Dust Mineralogy Derived from Global Soil Composition Uncertainties

Dust aerosols consist on a variety of minerals with different physic and chemical properties. As such, they interact with short and long wave radiation, potentially form clouds, act as nutrients modulating biogeochemical cycles, or influence atmospheric chemistry, differently. Most current state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) neglect the complexity in dust composition, mainly due to computational constraints, but also to the existing uncertainties in the size resolved composition of parent soils, the resulting distribution of minerals in airborne dust, and the scarcity of observations to constrain them. Within this work, we assess the variability of global dust composition due to uncertainties in the characterization of the parent soil mineralogy. To that end, we consider two available global soil mineralogy atlases, developed by Claquin et al. (1999) –C1999- and Journet et al. (2014) –J2014-, which represent respectively 8 and 12 relevant minerals for climate (namely: illite, smectite/montmorillonite, kaolinite, calcite, gypsum, hematite, quartz, and feldspars in C1999, and those plus chlorite, vermiculite, goethite, and mica in J2014). Thanks to a recently developed feature of the MONARCH atmospheric-chemistry model, we are able to explicitly resolve the minerals’ atmospheric cycle. Therefore, we define two global experiments to assess changes on airborne dust composition attributed to the soil mineralogy assumptions and provide a measure of their variability. We also perform a preliminary evaluation of the global mineralogy results against available observations of mineral fractions in surface dust concentration. Our results will inform the climate modelling community about the potential variability in dust composition, an aspect that will gain relevance as ESMs continue growing in complexity and new processes to better characterize aerosols’ forcing or biogeochemical cycles are added. Further observational constraints, such as those that will derive from the EMIT NASA mission on soil composition or the FRAGMENT experimental campaigns on airborne dust characterization, will be key in the near future to improve our understanding of the impact of dust mineralogy on fundamental climate features.

Dust aerosols↗

Modeling secondary organic aerosol formation from volatile chemical products

Abstract. Volatile chemical products (VCPs) are commonly used consumer and industrial items that are an important source of anthropogenic emissions. Organic compounds from VCPs evaporate on atmospherically relevant timescales and include many species that are secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursors. However, the chemistry leading to SOA, particularly that of intermediate-volatility organic compounds (IVOCs), has not been fully represented in regional-scale models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, which tend to underpredict SOA concentrations in urban areas. Here we develop a model to represent SOA formation from VCP emissions. The model incorporates a new VCP emissions inventory and employs three new classes of emissions: siloxanes, oxygenated IVOCs, and nonoxygenated IVOCs. VCPs are estimated to produce 1.67 µg m−3 of noontime SOA, doubling the current model predictions and reducing the SOA mass concentration bias from −75 % to −58 % when compared to observations in Los Angeles in 2010. While oxygenated and nonoxygenated intermediate-volatility VCP species are emitted in similar quantities, SOA formation is dominated by the nonoxygenated IVOCs. Formaldehyde and SOA show similar relationships to temperature and bias signatures, indicating common sources and/or chemistry. This work suggests that VCPs contribute up to half of anthropogenic SOA in Los Angeles and models must better represent SOA precursors from VCPs to predict the urban enhancement of SOA.

Pennington, Elyse A. (ORCID:0000000317362342)↗

NASA's Living with a Star Program: The Geospace Mission Concept

NASA has initiated the Living with a Star Program (LWS) to develop the scientific understanding to address the aspects of the Connected Sun-Earth system that affect life and society. A goal of the program is to bridge the gap between science, engineering, and user application communities. This will enable future science, operational, and commercial objectives in space and atmospheric environments by improving engineering approaches to the accommodation and/or mitigation of the effects of solar variability on technological systems. Three program elements are the Science Missions; a Theory, Modeling, and Data Analysis program; and a Space Environment Testbeds program. Because many of the effects of solar variability on humanity are observed in Geospace regions of space, the science research for all three elements of the LWS Program have significant components in Geospace regions.

Barth, Janet L.↗

Confronting Models with Data: The GEWEX Cloud Systems Study

The GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS; GEWEX is the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) was organized to promote development of improved parameterizations of cloud systems for use in climate and numerical weather prediction models, with an emphasis on the climate applications. The strategy of GCSS is to use two distinct kinds of models to analyze and understand observations of the behavior of several different types of clouds systems. Cloud-system-resolving models (CSRMs) have high enough spatial and temporal resolutions to represent individual cloud elements, but cover a wide enough range of space and time scales to permit statistical analysis of simulated cloud systems. Results from CSRMs are compared with detailed observations, representing specific cases based on field experiments, and also with statistical composites obtained from satellite and meteorological analyses. Single-column models (SCMs) are the surgically extracted column physics of atmospheric general circulation models. SCMs are used to test cloud parameterizations in an un-coupled mode, by comparison with field data and statistical composites. In the original GCSS strategy, data is collected in various field programs and provided to the CSRM Community, which uses the data to "certify" the CSRMs as reliable tools for the simulation of particular cloud regimes, and then uses the CSRMs to develop parameterizations, which are provided to the GCM Community. We report here the results of a re-thinking of the scientific strategy of GCSS, which takes into account the practical issues that arise in confronting models with data. The main elements of the proposed new strategy are a more active role for the large-scale modeling community, and an explicit recognition of the importance of data integration.

Randall, David↗

WCRP Task Team for the Intercomparison of Reanalyses (TIRA): Motivation and Progress

Reanalyses have proven to be an important resource for weather and climate related research, as well as societal applications at large. Several centers have emerged to produce new atmospheric reanalyses in various forms every few years. In addition, land and ocean communities are producing disciplinary uncoupled reanalyses. Current research and development in reanalysis is directed at (1) extending the length of reanalyzed period and (2) use of coupled Earth system models for climate reanalysis. While WCRPs involvement in the reanalyses communities through its Data Advisory Council (WDAC) has been substantial, for example in organizing international conferences on reanalyses, a central team of reanalyses expertise is not in place in the WCRP structure. The differences among reanalyses and their inherent uncertainties are some of the most important questions for both users and developers of reanalyses. Therefore, a collaborative effort to systematically assess and intercompare reanalyses would be a logical progression that fills the needs of the community and contributes to the WCRP mission. The primary charge to the TIRA is to develop a reanalysis intercomparison project plan that will attain the following objectives.1)To foster understanding and estimation of uncertainties in reanalysis data by intercomparison and other means 2)To communicate new developments and best practices among the reanalyses producing centers 3)To enhance the understanding of data and assimilation issues and their impact on uncertainties, leading to improved reanalyses for climate assessment 4)To communicate the strengths and weaknesses of reanalyses, their fitness for purpose, and best practices in the use of reanalysis datasets by the scientific community. This presentation outlines the need for a task team on reanalyses, their intercomparison, the objectives of the team and progress thus far.

WDA↗

Assimilation of CrIS Shortwave Infrared Channels into the GEOS Atmospheric Data Assimilation System

In recent years, there has been a renewed interest in using the 4.3 μmshortwave infrared (SWIR) band for temperature sounding. This is in part brought on by proposed cubesat missions sensing the 4.3 μmband such as MiSTIC and CIRAS. Jones et al. has shown that shortwave infrared channels on CrIScan be used effectively in NOAA's Global Forecast and Data Assimilation System (GDAS). In this work a similar study is presented using the Goddard Earth Observing System - Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (GEOS-ADAS). Results from Observing System Experiments (OSEs) utilizing SWIR CrISare presented using standard community accepted forecast metrics including Forecast Sensitivity to Observation Impact (FSOI), and an assessment of vertical sensitivity using Jacobians from the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM). The implications and utility within the GEOS-ADAS for future NASA GMAO products are discussed.

Bryan M Karpowicz↗