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DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Risk Assessment Research Needs and Activities

Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have benefitted the safe operation of the U.S. reactor fleet over many decades. Risk insights from these PRAs have provided information from many different perspectives, from what is most important to maintain at a facility to a better understanding of how to address new information regarding safety issues. The methods and tools that have supported the creation and enhancement of PRA models were established through multiple decades of research, from the 1970s starting with the WASH-1400 Reactor Safety Study through comprehensive plant-specific models in use today. Because PRA models are being used to support such a diverse array of plant decisions, they are now being applied to analyze an increasing number and diverse set of aspects of the plant, which are well beyond the initial efforts envisioned in the 1970s. These demands on PRA methods and tools have led to challenges in terms of further expansion of the use of PRA and raised the potential for future research into how to address these challenges to ensure continued nuclear safety. In addition to the PRA needs, the domain of computer science has led to advances in computational approaches that may serve to help nuclear power plant PRA applications. These newer technologies have great potential to improve the effectiveness and economics of PRA and are being considered for exploration of potential benefits to the PRA and nuclear-power communities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structure‐Aware Representation Learning for Effective Performance Prediction

ABSTRACT Application performance is a function of several unknowns stemming from the interactions between the application, runtime, OS, and underlying hardware, making it challenging to model performance using deep learning techniques, especially without a large labeled dataset. Collecting such labeled longitudinal datasets can take weeks. Intuitively, developers could save analysis time during code development by taking a comparative approach between multiple applications. However, the unknown dynamic interactions between applications and execution environments make it difficult for deep learning‐based models to predict the performance of new applications. In this paper, we address these problems by presenting a labeled dataset for the community and taking a comparative analysis approach to explore the source code differences between different correct implementations of the same problem. This paper assesses the feasibility of using purely static information, for example, Abstract Syntax Tree (AST), of applications to predict performance change based on code structure. We evaluate several deep learning‐based representation learning techniques for source code and propose an architecture for the tree‐based Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) models to discover latent representations for a source code's hierarchical structure. We demonstrate that our proposed architecture enables feed‐forward predictive models to predict change in performance using source code with up to 84% accuracy.

Ramadan, Tarek [Department of Computer Science Tex↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mathematical Programming Models for Shale Oil & Gas Development: A Review and Perspective

Here, in this paper, we provide a comprehensive review of mathematical programming models for shale oil & gas development, and we offer a perspective on outstanding research opportunities. We distinguish contributions in five major topic areas, namely: (1) development planning, (2) water management, (3) production optimization, (4) supplies, gathering & processing, and (5) life cycle analysis & sustainability. We highlight how various types of mathematical programming models (i.e., linear programs, nonlinear programs, mixed-integer linear programs, mixed-integer nonlinear programs) have been proposed primarily by the Process Systems Engineering community to address the respective decision-making problems, and we highlight instances of successful deployment in industry. Finally, based on a critical assessment of the existing body of work, we identify opportunities for future research across the major topic areas.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

PRISMS-Fatigue computational framework for fatigue analysis in polycrystalline metals and alloys

Abstract The PRISMS-Fatigue open-source framework for simulation-based analysis of microstructural influences on fatigue resistance for polycrystalline metals and alloys is presented here. The framework uses the crystal plasticity finite element method as its microstructure analysis tool and provides a highly efficient, scalable, flexible, and easy-to-use ICME community platform. The PRISMS-Fatigue framework is linked to different open-source software to instantiate microstructures, compute the material response, and assess fatigue indicator parameters. The performance of PRISMS-Fatigue is benchmarked against a similar framework implemented using ABAQUS. Results indicate that the multilevel parallelism scheme of PRISMS-Fatigue is more efficient and scalable than ABAQUS for large-scale fatigue simulations. The performance and flexibility of this framework is demonstrated with various examples that assess the driving force for fatigue crack formation of microstructures with different crystallographic textures, grain morphologies, and grain numbers, and under different multiaxial strain states, strain magnitudes, and boundary conditions.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2020

Chemical composition of material extractives influences microbial growth and dynamics on wetted wood materials

The impact of material chemical composition on microbial growth on building materials remains relatively poorly understood. We investigate the influence of the chemical composition of material extractives on microbial growth and community dynamics on 30 different wood species that were naturally inoculated, wetted, and held at high humidity for several weeks. Microbial growth was assessed by visual assessment and molecular sequencing. Unwetted material powders and microbial swab samples were analyzed using reverse phase liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry. Different wood species demonstrated varying susceptibility to microbial growth after 3 weeks and visible coverage and fungal qPCR concentrations were correlated (R 2 = 0.55). Aspergillaceae was most abundant across all samples; Meruliaceae was more prevalent on 8 materials with the highest visible microbial growth. A larger and more diverse set of compounds was detected from the wood shavings compared to the microbial swabs, indicating a complex and heterogeneous chemical composition within wood types. Several individual compounds putatively identified in wood samples showed statistically significant, near-monotonic associations with microbial growth, including C 11 H 16 O 4 , C 18 H 34 O 4 , and C 6 H 15 NO. A pilot experiment confirmed the inhibitory effects of dosing a sample of wood materials with varying concentrations of liquid C 6 H 15 NO (assuming it presented as Diethylethanolamine).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Summary of Environmental Monitoring Recommendations for Marine Energy Development That Considers Life Cycle Sustainability

Recommendations derived from papers documenting the Triton Field Trials (TFiT) study of marine energy environmental monitoring technology and methods under the Triton Initiative (Triton), as reported in this Special Issue, are summarized here. Additionally, a brief synopsis describes how to apply the TFiT recommendations to establish an environmental monitoring campaign, and provides an overview describing the importance of identifying the optimal time to perform such campaigns. The approaches for tracking and measuring the effectiveness of recommendations produced from large environmental monitoring campaigns among the stakeholder community are discussed. The discussion extends beyond the initial scope of TFiT to encourage discussion regarding marine energy sustainability that includes life cycle assessment and other life cycle sustainability methodologies. The goal is to inspire stakeholder collaboration across topics associated with the marine energy industry, including diversity and inclusion, energy equity, and how Triton’s work connects within the context of the three pillars of energy sustainability: environment, economy, and society.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

NASA NTRS1994

A Review of Transmission Diagnostics Research at NASA Lewis Research Center

This paper presents a summary of the transmission diagnostics research work conducted at NASA Lewis Research Center over the last four years. In 1990, the Transmission Health and Usage Monitoring Research Team at NASA Lewis conducted a survey to determine the critical needs of the diagnostics community. Survey results indicated that experimental verification of gear and bearing fault detection methods, improved fault detection in planetary systems, and damage magnitude assessment and prognostics research were all critical to a highly reliable health and usage monitoring system. In response to this, a variety of transmission fault detection methods were applied to experimentally obtained fatigue data. Failure modes of the fatigue data include a variety of gear pitting failures, tooth wear, tooth fracture, and bearing spalling failures. Overall results indicate that, of the gear fault detection techniques, no one method can successfully detect all possible failure modes. The more successful methods need to be integrated into a single more reliable detection technique. A recently developed method, NA4, in addition to being one of the more successful gear fault detection methods, was also found to exhibit damage magnitude estimation capabilities.

Zakajsek, James J.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Pilot Evaluation of Adaptive Control in Motion-Based Flight Simulator

The objective of this work is to assess the strengths, weaknesses, and robustness characteristics of several MRAC (Model-Reference Adaptive Control) based adaptive control technologies garnering interest from the community as a whole. To facilitate this, a control study using piloted and unpiloted simulations to evaluate sensitivities and handling qualities was conducted. The adaptive control technologies under consideration were ALR (Adaptive Loop Recovery), BLS (Bounded Linear Stability), Hybrid Adaptive Control, L1, OCM (Optimal Control Modification), PMRAC (Predictor-based MRAC), and traditional MRAC

Kaneshige, John T.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Robotic Reconnaissance Missions to Small Bodies and Their Potential Contributions to Human Exploration

Introduction: Robotic reconnaissance missions to small bodies will directly address aspects of NASA's Asteroid Initiative and will contribute to future human exploration. The NASA Asteroid Initiative is comprised of two major components: the Grand Challenge and the Asteroid Mission. The first component, the Grand Challenge, focuses on protecting Earth's population from asteroid impacts by detecting potentially hazardous objects with enough warning time to either prevent them from impacting the planet, or to implement civil defense procedures. The Asteroid Mission involves sending astronauts to study and sample a near- Earth asteroid (NEA) prior to conducting exploration missions of the Martian system, which includes Phobos and Deimos. The science and technical data obtained from robotic precursor missions that investigate the surface and interior physical characteristics of an object will help identify the pertinent physical properties that will maximize operational efficiency and reduce mission risk for both robotic assets and crew operating in close proximity to, or at the surface of, a small body. These data will help fill crucial strategic knowledge gaps (SKGs) concerning asteroid physical characteristics that are relevant for human exploration considerations at similar small body destinations. Small Body Strategic Knowledge Gaps: For the past several years NASA has been interested in identifying the key SKGs related to future human destinations. These SKGs highlight the various unknowns and/or data gaps of targets that the science and engineering communities would like to have filled in prior to committing crews to explore the Solar System. An action team from the Small Bodies Assessment Group (SBAG) was formed specifically to identify the small body SKGs under the direction of the Human Exploration and Operations Missions Directorate (HEOMD), given NASA's recent interest in NEAs and the Martian moons as potential human destinations [1]. The action team organized the SKGs into four broad themes: 1) Identify human mission targets; 2) Understand how to work on and interact with the small body surface; 3) Understand the small body environment and its potential risk/benefit to crew, systems, and operational assets; and 4) Understand the small body resource potential. Each of these themes were then further subdivided into categories to address specific SKG issues. Robotic Precursor Contributions to SKGs: Robotic reconnaissance missions should be able to address specific aspects related to SKG themes 1 through 4. Theme 1 deals with the identification of human mission targets within the NEA population. The current guideline indicates that human missions to fastspinning, tumbling, or binary asteroids may be too risky to conduct successfully from an operational perspective. However, no spacecraft mission has been to any of these types of NEAs before. Theme 2 addresses the concerns about interacting on the small body surface under microgravity conditions, and how the surface and/or sub-surface properties affect or restrict the interaction for human exploration. The combination of remote sensing instruments and in situ payloads will provide good insight into the asteroid's surface and subsurface properties. SKG theme 3 deals with the environment in and around the small body that may present a nuisance or hazard to any assets operating in close proximity. Impact and surface experiments will help address issues related to particle size, particle longevity, internal structure, and the near-surface mechanical stability of the asteroid. Understanding or constraining these physical characteristics are important for mission planning. Theme 4 addresses the resource potential of the small body. This is a particularly important aspect of human exploration since the identification and utilization of resources is a key aspect for deep space mission architectures to the Martian system (i.e., Phobos and Deimos). Conclusions: Robotic reconnaissance of small bodies can provide a wealth of information relevant to the science and planetary defense of NEAs. However, such missions to investigate NEAs can also provide key insights into small body strategic knowledge gaps and contribute to the overall success for human exploration missions to asteroids.

Abell, P. A.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Robotic Missions to Small Bodies and Their Potential Contributions to Human Exploration and Planetary Defense

Introduction: Robotic missions to small bodies will directly address aspects of NASA's Asteroid Initiative and will contribute to future human exploration and planetary defense. The NASA Asteroid Initiative is comprised of two major components: the Grand Challenge and the Asteroid Mission. The first component, the Grand Challenge, focuses on protecting Earth's population from asteroid impacts by detecting potentially hazardous objects with enough warning time to either prevent them from impacting the planet, or to implement civil defense procedures. The Asteroid Mission involves sending astronauts to study and sample a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) prior to conducting exploration missions of the Martian system, which includes Phobos and Deimos. The science and technical data obtained from robotic precursor missions that investigate the surface and interior physical characteristics of an object will help identify the pertinent physical properties that will maximize operational efficiency and reduce mission risk for both robotic assets and crew operating in close proximity to, or at the surface of, a small body. These data will help fill crucial strategic knowledge gaps (SKGs) concerning asteroid physical characteristics that are relevant for human exploration considerations at similar small body destinations. These data can also be applied for gaining an understanding of pertinent small body physical characteristics that would also be beneficial for formulating future impact mitigation procedures. Small Body Strategic Knowledge Gaps: For the past several years NASA has been interested in identifying the key SKGs related to future human destinations. These SKGs highlight the various unknowns and/or data gaps of targets that the science and engineering communities would like to have filled in prior to committing crews to explore the Solar System. An action team from the Small Bodies Assessment Group (SBAG) was formed specifically to identify the small body SKGs under the direction of the Human Exploration and Operations Missions Directorate (HEOMD), given NASA's recent interest in NEAs and the Martian moons as potential human destinations. The action team organized the SKGs into four broad themes: 1) Identify human mission targets; 2) Understand how to work on and interact with the small body surface; 3) Understand the small body environment and its potential risk/benefit to crew, systems, and operational assets; and 4) Understand the small body resource potential. Of these four SKG themes, the first three have significant overlap with planetary defense considerations. The data obtained from investigations of small body physical characteristics under these three themes can be directly applicable to planetary defense initiatives. Conclusions: Missions to investigate small bodies can address small body strategic knowledge gaps and contribute to the overall success for human exploration missions to asteroids and the Martian moons. In addition, such reconnaissance of small bodies can also provide a wealth of information relevant to the science and planetary defense of NEAs.

Abell, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Community-Wide Validation of Geospace Model Local K-Index Predictions to Support Model Transition to Operations

We present the latest result of a community-wide space weather model validation effort coordinated among the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), model developers, and the broader science community. Validation of geospace models is a critical activity for both building confidence in the science results produced by the models and in assessing the suitability of the models for transition to operations. Indeed, a primary motivation of this work is supporting NOAA/SWPCs effort to select a model or models to be transitioned into operations. Our validation efforts focus on the ability of the models to reproduce a regional index of geomagnetic disturbance, the local K-index. Our analysis includes six events representing a range of geomagnetic activity conditions and six geomagnetic observatories representing midlatitude and high-latitude locations. Contingency tables, skill scores, and distribution metrics are used for the quantitative analysis of model performance. We consider model performance on an event-by-event basis, aggregated over events, at specific station locations, and separated into high-latitude and midlatitude domains. A summary of results is presented in this report, and an online tool for detailed analysis is available at the CCMC.

Glocer, A.↗

NASA NTRS2016

On-Orbit Calibration and Performance of S-NPP VIIRS DNB

The S-NPP VIIRS instrument has successfully operated since its launch in October 2011. The VIIRS Day-Night Band (DNB) is a panchromatic channel covering wavelengths from 0.5 to 0.9 m that is capable of observing Earth scenes during both day and nighttime orbits at a spatial resolution of 750 m. To cover the large dynamic range, the DNB operates at low, mid, or high gain stages, and it uses an onboard solar diffuser (SD) for its low gain stage calibration. The SD observations also provide a means to compute gain ratios of low-to-mid and mid-to-high gain stages. This paper describes the DNB on-orbit calibration methodologies used by the VIIRS Characterization Support Team (VCST) in supporting the NASA earth science community with consistent VIIRS sensor data records (SDRs) made available by the Land Science Investigator-led Processing Systems (SIPS). It provides an assessment and update of DNB on-orbit performance, including the SD degradation in the DNB spectral range, detector gain and gain ratio trending, stray light contamination and its correction. Also presented in this paper are performance validations based on earth scenes and lunar observations.

Chen, H.↗

NASA NTRS2010

NASA 2009 HyspIRI Science Workshop Report

From August 11 13, 2009, NASA held a three-day workshop to consider the Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HyspIRI) mission recommended for implementation by the 2007 report from the U.S. National Research Council Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond (also known as the Earth Science Decadal Survey or, simply, the Decadal Survey). The open workshop provided a forum to present the observational requirements for the mission and assess its anticipated impact on scientific and operational applications; the open forum also offered the opportunity to obtain feedback from the broader scientific community on the mission concept. The workshop participants concluded that the HyspIRI mission would provide a significant new capability to study ecosystems and natural hazards at spatial scales relevant to human resource use. In addition, participants reviewed the Draft Preliminary HyspIRI Mission Level 1 Requirements and confirmed that they were achievable with the mission concept presented and would provide the necessary data needed to address the science questions identified for the mission and by the Decadal Survey. These requirements could be met using the reference instrument designs and be implemented through the use of current technology. The workshop participants, like the Decadal Survey itself, strongly endorsed the need for the HyspIRI mission and felt the mission, as defined, would accomplish the intended science.

Oaida, Bogdan V.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Constraints on Climate and Habitability for Earth-like Exoplanets Determined from a General Circulation Model

Conventional definitions of habitability require abundant liquid surface water to exist continuously over geologic timescales. Water in each of its thermodynamic phases interacts with solar and thermal radiation and is the cause for strong climatic feedbacks. Thus, assessments of the habitable zone require models to include a complete treatment of the hydrological cycle over geologic time. Here, we use the Community Atmosphere Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research to study the evolution of climate for an Earth-like planet at constant CO2, under a wide range of stellar fluxes from F-, G-, and K-dwarf main sequence stars. Around each star we find four stable climate states defined by mutually exclusive global mean surface temperatures (Ts); snowball (Ts ≤ 235 K), waterbelt (235 K ≤ Ts ≤ 250 K), temperate (275 K ≤ Ts ≤ 315 K), and moist greenhouse (Ts ≥ 330 K). Each is separated by abrupt climatic transitions. Waterbelt, temperate, and cooler moist greenhouse climates can maintain open-ocean against both sea ice albedo and hydrogen escape processes respectively, and thus constitute habitable worlds. We consider the warmest possible habitable planet as having Ts ∼ 355 K, at which point diffusion limited water-loss could remove an Earth ocean in ∼1 Gyr. Without long timescale regulation of non-condensable greenhouse species at Earth-like temperatures and pressures, such as CO2, habitability can be maintained for an upper limit of ∼2.2, ∼2.4, and ∼4.7 Gyr around F-, G-, and K-dwarf stars respectively, due to main sequence brightening.

Eric T Wolf↗

NASA NTRS2022

Insights from the Topographic Characteristics of a Large Global Catalog of Rainfall-Induced Landslide Event Inventories

Landslides are a key hazard in high-relief areas around the world and pose a risk to population and infrastructure. It is important to understand where landslides are likely to occur in the landscape to inform local analyses of exposure and potential impacts. Large triggering events such as earthquakes or major rain storms often cause hundreds or thousands of landslides, and mapping the landslide populations generated by these events can provide extensive datasets of landslide locations. Previous work has explored the characteristic locations of landslides triggered by seismic shaking, but rainfall induced landslides are likely to occur in different parts of a given landscape when compared to seismically induced failures. Here we show measurements of a range of topographic parameters associated with rainfall-induced landslides inventories, including a number of previously unpublished inventories which we also present here. We find that average upstream angle and compound topographic index are strong predictors of landslide scar location, while local relief and topographic position index provide a stronger sense of where landslide material may end up (and thus where hazard may be highest). By providing a large compilation of inventory data for open use by the landslide community, we suggest that this work could be useful for other regional and global landslide modelling studies and local calibration of landslide susceptibility assessment, as well as hazard mitigation studies.

Robert Emberson↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cosmic Ray Exposure Ages, Bulk and Isotopic H, C, and N Compositions of Dominion Range (DOM) CO3 Carbonaceous Chondrites and Implications for Pairing

Over 20 CO3 chondrites have been re-covered in the Dominion Range (DOM) dense collection area (DCA) of the Transantarctic Mountains by ANSMET (Antarctic Search for Meteorites) across 6 field seasons. Because of the significant masses involved and huge community interest in the most primitive samples of all carbonaceous chondrite classes such as the CO3s, we have undertaken a de-tailed assessment of the pairings and petrologic types using field relations, macroscopic observations, petrography, olivine compositions, and bulk and isotopic H, C, N compositions, and noble gas abundances and isotopes for cosmic ray exposure (CRE) ages, for all specimens. Most recently, teams during the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons recovered 10 new CO3 samples. Here we report new H, C, and N bulk and isotopic data, as well as CRE ages, for these 10 samples and DOM 10900 (which has some unique properties and may not be a CO chondrite). This completes the characterization of all known CO3s from DOM, allowing a thorough assessment of possible pairing relations.

chondrite↗

NASA NTRS2017

Constraints on Climate and Habitability for Earth-like Exoplanets Determined from a General Circulation Model

Conventional definitions of habitability require abundant liquid surface water to exist continuously over geologic timescales. Water in each of its thermodynamic phases interacts with solar and thermal radiation and is the cause for strong climatic feedbacks. Thus, assessments of the habitable zone require models to include a complete treatment of the hydrological cycle over geologic time. Here, we use the Community Atmosphere Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research to study the evolution of climate for an Earth-like planet at constant CO2, under a wide range of stellar fluxes from F-, G-, and K-dwarf main sequence stars. Around each star we find four stable climate states defined by mutually exclusive global mean surface temperatures (T(sub s)); snowball (T(sub s) ≼ 235 K), waterbelt (235 K ≼ T(sub s) ≼ 250 K), temperate (275 K ≼ T(sub s) ≼ 315 K), and moist greenhouse (T(sub s) ≽ 330 K). Each is separated by abrupt climatic transitions. Waterbelt, temperate, and cooler moist greenhouse climates can maintain open-ocean against both sea ice albedo and hydrogen escape processes respectively, and thus constitute habitable worlds. We consider the warmest possible habitable planet as having T(sub s) ∼ 355 K, at which point diffusion limited water-loss could remove an Earth ocean in ∼1 Gyr. Without long timescale regulation of non-condensable greenhouse species at Earth-like temperatures and pressures, such as CO2, habitability can be maintained for an upper limit of ∼2.2, ∼2.4, and ∼4.7 Gyr around F-, G-, and K-dwarf stars respectively, due to main sequence brightening.

Astrobiology↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Infusing Statistical Thinking into the NASA Quesst Community Test Campaign

Statistical thinking permeates many important decisions as NASA plans its Quesst mission, which will culminate in a series of community overflights using the X-59 aircraft to demonstrate low-noise supersonic flight. Month-long longitudinal surveys will be deployed to assess human perception and annoyance to this new acoustic phenomenon. NASA works with a large contractor team to develop systems and methodologies to estimate noise doses, to test and field socio-acoustic surveys, and to study the relationship between the two quantities, dose and response, through appropriate choices of statistical models. This latter dose-response relationship will serve as an important tool as national and international noise regulators debate whether overland supersonic flights could be permitted once again within permissible noise limits. In this presentation we highlight several areas where statistical thinking has come into play, including issues of sampling, classification and data fusion, and analysis of longitudinal survey data that are subject to rare events and the consequences of measurement error. We note several operational constraints that shape the appeal or feasibility of some decisions on statistical approaches, and we identify several important remaining questions to be addressed.

Bayesian model↗