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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

Enhancing Gaussian Process Surrogates for Optimization and Posterior Approximation via Random Exploration

This paper proposes novel noise-free Bayesian optimization strategies that rely on a random exploration step to enhance the accuracy of Gaussian process surrogate models. The new algorithms retain the ease of implementation of the classical GP-UCB algorithm, but the additional random exploration step accelerates their convergence, nearly achieving the optimal convergence rate. Furthermore, to facilitate Bayesian inference with intractable likelihoods, we propose to utilize optimization iterates for maximum a posteriori estimation to build a Gaussian process surrogate model for the unnormalized log-posterior density. We provide bounds for the Hellinger distance between the true and the approximate posterior distributions in terms of the number of design points. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our Bayesian optimization algorithms in nonconvex benchmark objective functions, in a machine learning hyperparameter tuning problem, and in a black-box engineering design problem. The effectiveness of our posterior approximation approach is demonstrated in two Bayesian inference problems for parameters of dynamical systems.

Bayesian inference↗

On the Solution of ℓ 0 -Constrained Sparse Inverse Covariance Estimation Problems

The sparse inverse covariance matrix is used to model conditional dependencies between variables in a graphical model to fit a multivariate Gaussian distribution. Estimating the matrix from data are well known to be computationally expensive for large-scale problems. Sparsity is employed to handle noise in the data and to promote interpretability of a learning model. Although the use of a convex ℓ 1 regularizer to encourage sparsity is common practice, the combinatorial ℓ 0 penalty often has more favorable statistical properties. In this paper, we directly constrain sparsity by specifying a maximally allowable number of nonzeros, in other words, by imposing an ℓ 0 constraint. Here, we introduce an efficient approximate Newton algorithm using warm starts for solving the nonconvex ℓ 0 -constrained inverse covariance learning problem. Numerical experiments on standard data sets show that the performance of the proposed algorithm is competitive with state-of-the-art methods.

$\ell_0$-Constrained↗

SISTec: Mathematical Calibration of Large Clearance Monitors - 18265

One major path for clearance of large amount of waste arising from the decommission of nuclear power plants is based on measurement with large clearance monitors (also known as free release measurement facilities). These devices utilize multi-detector plastic scintillator arrays (large clearance monitors can consist of up to 24 plastic scintillators) to offer both, extremely low minimum detectable activities (MDA) and short measurement times for waste packages weighing up to one metric ton. However, a major problem with these devices is to obtain nuclide specific efficiencies, especially for geometrically complex large waste packages. Normal procedure for estimating the efficiency is to device dummy waste packages and attach point sources with well-known activities to unfavourable positions in these packages. In accordance with this procedure, calibration factors can be derived in a radiological conservative way. Devising such test dummies is not always possible and the procedure is prone to generating large measurement uncertainties. In this publication, we propose a new method to derive calibration factors by means of the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) simulation tool Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) and a statistical-phenomenological model for the detector characterization. In a multi-step approach, first the detector response for a distribution of activity in a waste package is calculated and subsequently the detectors are mathematically characterized. Applying state of the art statistical and optimizing procedures, parameters for the detector response are derived in a self-consistent way. This also allows to rigorously propagate the uncertainties to the final calculated calibration factors according to the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM supplement 1). To validate the derived parameters for the detector characterization a minimally invasive experimental setup was devised and installed into the large clearance monitor. It consisted of an aluminum swivel arm which could position point sources to the relevant coordinates. The so collected measurement data not only allowed to investigate the precision of the calculated calibration factors, but also to probe the location of concentrated activity sources in the waste package. Furthermore, data on measurements with dummy waste packages were collected to test the reproducibility of well-known calibration factors. We present the software tool SIStec, which will provide an intuitive user-interface to generate and simulate waste package models and execute the above-mentioned method. Using SIStec, different scenarios for the distribution of activity in the waste package can be probed. This will also allow to optimize the clearance process on various levels. For example, measurement time for pre-measurements can be reduced in exchange for unfavourable calibration factors, which would still allow to meet the regulator limits for clearance. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Active operator learning with predictive uncertainty quantification for partial differential equations

With the increased prevalence of neural operators being used to provide rapid solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs), understanding the accuracy of model predictions and the associated error levels is necessary for deploying reliable surrogate models in scientific applications. Existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) frameworks employ ensembles or Bayesian methods, which can incur substantial computational costs during both training and inference. Here, we propose a lightweight predictive UQ method tailored for Deep operator networks (DeepONets) that also generalizes to other operator networks. Numerical experiments on linear and nonlinear PDEs demonstrate that the framework’s uncertainty estimates are unbiased and provide accurate out-of-distribution uncertainty predictions with a sufficiently large training dataset. Our framework provides fast inference and uncertainty estimates that can efficiently drive outer-loop analyses that would be prohibitively expensive with conventional solvers. We demonstrate how predictive uncertainties can be used in the context of Bayesian optimization and active learning problems to yield improvements in accuracy and data-efficiency for outer-loop optimization procedures. In the active learning setup, we extend the framework to Fourier Neural Operators (FNO) and describe a generalized method for other operator networks. To enable real-time deployment, we introduce an inference strategy based on precomputed trunk outputs and a sparse placement matrix, reducing evaluation time by more than a factor of five. Our method provides a practical route to uncertainty-aware operator learning in time-sensitive settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Remote Sensing Improves Multi‐Hazard Flooding and Extreme Heat Detection by Fivefold Over Current Estimates

The co‐occurrence of multiple hazards is of growing concern globally as the frequency and magnitude of extreme climate events increases. Despite studies examining the spatial distribution of such events, there has been little work in examining if all relevant life threatening and damaging hazards are captured in existing hazard databases and by common hazard metrics. For example, local/regional flash flooding events are seldom captured by optical satellite instruments and are subsequently excluded from global hazard databases. Similarly, the heat hazard definitions most frequently used in multi‐hazard studies inherently fail to capture events that are life‐threatening but climatologically within an expected range. Our goal is to determine the potential for increasing multi‐hazard event detection capabilities by inferring additional hazard footprints from widely accessible satellite data. We use daily precipitation and temperature satellite data to develop an open‐source framework that infers additional hazard footprints that are not included in traditional methods. With the state of Texas as our study area, we detected 2.5 times as many flood hazards, equivalent to $320 million in property and crop damages. Furthermore, our expanded heat hazard definition increases the impacted area by 56.6%, equivalent to 91.5 million km 2 over an 18 year period. Increasing hazard detection capabilities and expanding existing definitions of hazards using daily satellite data increases the temporal and spatial resolutions at which multi‐hazard events are detected. Having more complete data sets of all relevant hazard extents improves our ability to track global trends and more accurately determine the magnitude of hazard exposure inequities.

equity↗

An update to the Sandia method for creating Typical Meteorological Years from a limited pool of calendar years

Typical Meteorological Years (TMYs) are essential for the efficient evaluation of energy system performance. Ideally, 30 years of weather data are required to generate TMYs, but significantly fewer years are typically available due to practical limitations. To address this issue, an update to the Sandia method was developed, referred to as the Argonne method, to create TMYs from a limited number of years. Furthermore, this method enhances candidate diversity by systematically shifting original candidate months forward or backward by specific days, creating an expanded pool of candidates. The effectiveness of the Argonne method was validated through statistical testing, comparison of monthly average weather parameters, and numerical simulations. The results demonstrate a high probability of identifying at least one shifted month whose cumulative distribution functions of weather parameters closely align with long-term distributions. In 67 % of all comparisons, the monthly average weather parameters in TMYs generated using the Argonne method exhibit better agreement with long-term averages than TMY3. Moreover, in 74 % of the 318 building simulation cases, the Argonne method outperforms TMY3 in estimating long-term average building heating and cooling demands. Therefore, the Argonne method effectively diversifies the candidate pool and produces typical years that provide more accurate estimations of long-term averages compared to TMY3 when only a limited pool of calendar years (10 years or fewer) is available.

Building energy modeling↗

Predictive performance modeling framework for a novel enclosed particle receiver configuration and application for thermochemical energy storage

Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants can provide dispatchable power with a thermal energy storage capability for increased renewable-energy grid penetration. Particle-based CSP systems permit higher temperatures, and thus, potentially higher solar-to-electric efficiency than state-of-the-art molten-salt heat-transfer systems. This paper describes a detailed numerical analysis framework for estimating the performance of a novel, geometrically complex, enclosed particle receiver design. The receiver configuration uses arrays of small tubular absorbers to collect and subsequently transfer solar energy to a flowing particulate medium. The enclosed nature of the receiver design renders it amenable to either an inert heat-transfer medium, or a reactive heat-transfer medium that requires a controllable ambient environment. The numerical analysis framework described in this study is demonstrated for the case of thermal reduction of CaCr 0.1 Mn 0.9 O 3-$\delta$ for thermochemical energy storage. The modeling strategy consists of Monte Carlo ray tracing for absorbed solar-energy distributions from a surround heliostat field, computational fluid dynamics modeling of small-scale local tubular arrays, surrogate response surfaces that approximately capture simulated tubular array performance, a quasi-two-dimensional reduced-order description of counter-flow reactive solids and purge gas, and a radiative exchange model applied to embedded-cavity structures at the size scale of the full receiver. In this work we apply the numerical analysis strategy to a single receiver configuration, but the framework can be generically applicable to alternative enclosed designs. In conclusion, we assess sensitivity of receiver performance to surface optical properties, heat-transfer coefficients, solids outlet temperature, and purge-gas feed rates, and discuss the significance of model assumptions and results for future receiver development.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Forest reorganisation effects on fuel moisture content can exceed changes due to climate warming in wet temperate forests

Abstract The distributions of vegetation and fire activity are changing rapidly in response to climate warming. In many regions, climate effects on dead fuel moisture content (FMC) are expected to increase future wildfire activity. However, forest FMC is largely driven by microclimate conditions, which are moderated from open weather by vegetation canopies. As shifts in vegetation increase under climate warming, the extent to which future fire activity will be driven by climate directly or associated vegetation shifts remains unresolved. Here, we present a study aimed at quantifying the relative magnitudes of (i) direct climate warming, and (ii) vegetation change, on FMC. Field sites to evaluate these effects were established in a natural laboratory of altered forest states to mature wet temperate forest in south‐eastern Australia. FMC was estimated using a process‐based model and 48 years of reconstructed climate data. Canopy effects on microclimate were captured by transferring inputs from climate to microclimate using models parameterised with field observations. To evaluate the relative magnitude of climate and vegetation effects, we calculated the maximum difference in mean annual FMC across annual climate replicates and compared this to FMC differences across reorganising forest sites. Our results show vegetation effects on FMC can exceed those related to expected climate change. Changes to forest structure and composition increased (+15.7%) and decreased (−12.3%) mean annual FMC, with a larger negative effect when forest cover was completely removed (−18.5%). In contrast, the largest climate effect on FMC was −6.6% across 48‐years of data. Our study demonstrates that the magnitude of vegetation effects on FMC can exceed expected climate change effects. Models of future fire activity that do not account for changing vegetation effects on microclimate are omitting a key biophysical control on FMC and therefore may not be accurately predicting future fire activity.

Brown, Tegan P.↗

The Vineyard Wind Power Purchase Agreement: Insights for Estimating Costs of U.S. Offshore Wind Projects

This report analyzes the power purchase agreements (PPAs) between Massachusetts electric distribution utilities (EDC) and Vineyard Wind LLC filed on July 31, 2018, and derives insights for estimating cost of U.S. offshore wind systems and broader cost modeling activities. The documented price for delivery of offshore wind generation and renewable energy certificates under the Vineyard Wind/electric distribution utilities PPA is 74 $/megawatt-hour (MWh) (2022$) for facility 1 (400 MW) and 65 $/MWh (2023$) for facility 2 (400 MW). However, this PPA price does not comprise the complete set of expected revenue sources and tax benefits available to the Vineyard Wind LLC project. A comprehensive accounting of expected revenue sources inclusive of those that are exogenous to the reported PPA is conducted in this study to estimate the project's levelized revenue of energy (LROE). This allows for a more equivalent comparison of the PPA pricing with bottom-up modeled (unsubsidized) levelized cost of energy (LCOE) estimates. LROE from the Vineyard LLC/EDC PPA is estimated to be 98$/MWh (2018$). This LROE estimate for the first commercial-scale offshore wind project in the United States appears to be within the range of LROE estimated for offshore wind projects recently tendered in Northern Europe with a start of commercial operation by the early 2020s. This suggests that a cost and risk premium for the initial set of U.S. offshore wind projects may be less pronounced than anticipated by many industry observers and analysts.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Modeling and Impact of Hyperloop Technology on the Electricity Grid

This paper provides an overview of hyperloop technologies, including a brief discussion of key components of a hyperloop system that determine the electric power requirements as a function of time. At-scale hyperloop systems do not yet exist, so a model was used to generate a set of load profiles for conceptual hyperloop realizations at four locations in the United States: two systems in California and one each in Colorado and Ohio. In all four cases, the modeled hyperloop load profiles included pulses in both active and reactive power. Grid modeling was performed to estimate the grid impacts and for dis-cussing grid integration challenges. The paper discusses how energy storage systems might be used to eliminate the pulsating load characteristics or significantly reduce it to accommodate current grid planning guidelines

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

EAGLE-I County Customer Dataset Fall 2025

This dataset provides a combination of modeled and collected county-level electric customer counts derived from 2023 EIA-861 utility customer data, 2021 HIFLD electric retail service territory boundaries, 2021 LandScan population estimates, and 2025 EAGLE-I customer outages. The dataset details county FIPS code, number of customers, and customer type (modeled, collected, mixed). Outage data in included for all 50 U.S. states, Puerto Rico, and the District of Columbia (excluding other U.S. territories).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

New U.S. Data Tools are Playing a Crucial Role in Decarbonizing Buildings at Speed, Scale, and Low Cost

Preparing buildings for retrofits traditionally requires expensive on-site audits or timeintensive simulation models. As a result, the majority of buildings fail to pursue cost-saving retrofits. To address these barriers, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has introduced the Building Efficiency Targeting Tool for Energy Retrofits (BETTER)-a new, free, on-line tool that utilizes a data-driven analytical engine and user-friendly web interface to automatically analyze a building's monthly energy usage in response to weather conditions. The tool benchmarks a building's electric and fossil energy usage against peers; estimates energy, cost, and emissions reductions at the building and portfolio levels; recommends energy efficiency measures; and prioritizes buildings for net-zero energy retrofits. Thanks to interoperability with the DOE's Standard Energy Efficiency Data (SEED) platform, BETTER is supporting U.S. jurisdictions to prepare buildings for retrofit at speed, scale, and low cost to comply with energy policies. This paper discusses the use of BETTER and SEED by one of the branches of the California state government to streamline a retrofit program across 455 public non-residential buildings to align with state goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It describes the organization's challenge to reduce energy consumption across a geographically diverse, aging portfolio; explores how BETTER and SEED improved workflow efficiency; presents preliminary results, including avoiding audit costs of $3.28 million and developing the groundwork for retrofit projects estimated to prevent emission of 2,271 t CO2e annually; and provides guidance for other jurisdictions seeking similar results.

BETTER↗

A multi-criteria land suitability assessment of field allocation decisions for switchgrass

With the goal of evaluating biomass resource availability in certain regions in the United States, the Department of Energy, Department of Agriculture, Environmental Protection Agency, national laboratories, and Forest Service research laboratories, together with academic and industry collaborators, performed a resource analysis study, 2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy, Volume 1: Economic Availability of Feedstocks, using POLYSYS model to estimate biomass potential. The study provided county- and state-level biomass potential projections, with biomass feedstock production estimates and suitability assessment of lands acreage likely to transition to energy crops. For this analysis, we estimate biomass supply by year 2028, more specifically, lands acreage transition to switchgrass in the Midwest of the United States, across 50 counties in 3 states (Nebraska, Kansas, and Colorado). We propose a multi-criteria site suitability framework, to determine the potential acreage and production for switchgrass, at the field level. Site selection criteria span agronomic and ecosystem services such as previous land cover, crop rotation, soil water holding capacity, crop productivity, field efficiency, topography, soil organic matter, soil leaching propensity, distance to surface water bodies, and soil erosivity. Efficient agricultural field selection for dedicated energy crops field allocation is critical to evaluate biomass resource availability, and it is our position that estimation at the field level would provide a more accurate and useful estimation to support an emerging bioeconomy. Using field suitability scores and county-level assessments, we model land allocation decision for energy crop in the future, estimating the spatial distribution of dynamics of energy crop adoption with priority to fields scoring the highest. Additionally, compared with POLYSYS results from the report mentioned above, our method shows good performance overall, with about 2% and 1.2% of difference in switchgrass acreage allocation and crop production, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Complex F,Cl Apatite Solid Solution Investigated Using Multinuclear Solid-State NMR Methods

In this paper, a series of synthetic F,Cl apatites with low hydroxyl content was investigated using 31 P, 19 F, and 35 Cl solid-state magic angle spinning (MAS) NMR spectroscopic methods. 31 P single-pulse (SP) NMR spectra show that for each composition the phosphate 31 P chemical shift depends on occupancy of the nearest anion site for each composition. Overall the average chemical shift deviates from linear across the F/Cl series. For intermediate compositions 19 F SP NMR spectra reveal complex, broadened spectral profiles that are not correlated to composition. 19 F{ 35 Cl} TRAPDOR results indicate that the spectral profiles do not reflect occupancy of F and Cl in adjacent column anion sites. We propose that the complex 19 F lineshapes are principally due to broad distributions of 19 F–Ca distances arising from displacement of F along the anion channel. Finally, approximate fluorine atomic positions are estimated based on 19 F chemical shifts of alkaline earth fluoride salts, and the results are in good accord with those proposed for intermediate composition F,Cl apatites from XRD data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Deep inelastic scattering as a probe of entanglement

Using nonlinear evolution equations of QCD, we compute the von Neumann entropy of the system of partons resolved by deep inelastic scattering at a given Bjorken x and momentum transfer q 2 = - Q 2 . We interpret the result as the entropy of entanglement between the spatial region probed by deep inelastic scattering and the rest of the proton. At small x the relation between the entanglement entropy S ( x ) and the parton distribution x G ( x ) becomes very simple: S ( x ) = ln [ x G ( x ) ] . In this small x , large rapidity Y regime, all partonic microstates have equal probabilities—the proton is composed by an exponentially large number exp ( Δ Y ) of microstates that occur with equal and exponentially small probabilities exp ( - Δ Y ) , where Δ is defined by x G ( x ) ~ 1 / x Δ . For this equipartitioned state, the entanglement entropy is maximal—so at small x , deep inelastic scattering probes a maximally entangled state. Here, we propose the entanglement entropy as an observable that can be studied in deep inelastic scattering. This will then require event-by-event measurements of hadronic final states, and would allow to study the transformation of entanglement entropy into the Boltzmann one. We estimate that the proton is represented by the maximally entangled state at x ≤ 10 -3 ; this kinematic region will be amenable to studies at the Electron Ion Collider.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Film Cooling Performance Prediction for Air and Supercritical CO 2

The current study explores the possibility of cooling the vanes and blades of a direct-fired sCO 2 turbine using film cooling. The operating conditions of a direct-fired sCO 2 cycle and thermophysical properties of the fluid at those conditions can alter the flow field characteristics of the coolant jet and its mixing with the mainstream. Very little information is present in the literature regarding the performance of film cooling geometries employing supercritical CO 2 . The objective of this study is to estimate the resulting film cooling effectiveness while also capturing the effects of the crossflow-to-mainstream velocity ratio on the coolant jet. Herein, a computational fluid dynamic model is used to study the coolant jet exiting a cylindrical hole located on a flat plate, with the coolant fed by an internal channel. Steady-state Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations were solved along with the (shear-stress transport) SST k–ω model to provide the turbulence closure. The operating conditions for the direct-fired sCO 2 turbine are obtained using an in-house Cooled Turbine Model. Numerical predictions revealed that the crossflow effects and jet lift-off were more pronounced in the case of sCO 2 when compared to air. Spatial distribution of flow field and cooling effectiveness are presented at different operating conditions.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Signatures of Thermoreversible Associations in X-ray and Neutron Scattering from Dilute Polyzwitterion Solutions

In aqueous solutions of polyzwitterions (PZs), an interplay between dipole–dipole interactions and hydration of zwitterionic groups can lead to thermoreversible associations, which have been difficult to detect in experiments. Here, in this study, we investigated dilute aqueous solutions of poly(1-(3-sulphonatopropyl)-2-vinylpyridinium) (P2VPPS) using small-angle X-ray and neutron scattering (SAXS and SANS) to probe the structure and neutron spin-echo (NSE) spectroscopy to probe dynamics. The SAXS and SANS data show that the correlation length increases with an increase in the concentration of P2VPPS for three different molecular weights. The addition of 0.1 M NaCl to one of the solutions led to almost no dependence of the correlation length on the concentration. Such a concentration dependence of the correlation length suggests the formation of clusters driven by thermoreversible associations in the solutions. The NSE measurements show that the solutions with a larger correlation length display slower relaxation, reflecting the reduced mobility of larger clusters. These results should be considered as signatures of thermoreversible associations in the solutions of P2VPPS. To establish a quantitative link between local structure (clusters) and dynamics in dilute solutions of P2VPPS, we combined a thermoreversible gelation theory for the structure of PZ solutions (Li, S.-F.; Muthukumar, M. Theory of Thermoreversible Gelation and Anomalous Concentration Fluctuations in Polyzwitterion Solutions. J. Chem. Phys. 2024, 161, 024903) with a model for the dynamics of the clusters (generalized Zimm model), developed in this work. Using such a theoretical framework, we have predicted the distribution of clusters in the solutions probed with SANS and SAXS. With the distributions, the generalized Zimm model has been used to extract the diffusion constant of the clusters and their characteristic size from the NSE data, where the latter agrees with the values estimated from the SAXS/SANS data. These findings confirm the presence of thermoreversible associations and establish a quantitative link between local structure (clusters) and dynamics in dilute solutions of P2VPPS. Furthermore, with growing interest in technological applications, this work can provide useful insights into the structural and dynamical properties of other PZ solutions.

field theory↗

Improved heavy-ion PID using scintillation light detector with neural network analysis: a Monte Carlo simulation study

The photon collection efficiency of gaseous scintillator detectors varies according to the position of the impinging charged particles in the medium that generates scintillation light. Thus, when impinging particles are distributed over a large area, the intrinsic photon-number resolution of the system is affected by a large variation. This work presents and discusses a method for adjusting the total number of detected photons to account for variation in the photon collection efficiency as a function of the position of the light source within the scintillating medium. The method was developed and validated by processing data from systematic simulation studies based on GEANT4 that model the response of the Energy Loss Optical Scintillation System (ELOSS) detector. The position of the charged particle is calculated using a deep neural network algorithm. This is accomplished by analyzing the distribution of scintillation light recorded by the array of photosensors. The estimated particle position is then used to calculate the correction factor and adjust the amount of captured light to account for variations in the photon collection efficiency. The neural network algorithm provides excellent tracking capabilities, achieving sub-millimeter position resolution and an angular resolution of 12 mrad, approaching the performance of traditional tracking detectors (e.g., drift chambers). The present method can be generalized to any optical scintillation system where the photon collection efficiency depends on the position of the impinging particle.

Heavy-ion detectors↗