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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

The value of integrating a geothermal district heating system into a microgrid

As electrical grids increasingly rely on variable renewable energy, maintaining reliability and cost efficiency becomes more complex. To address these challenges, this study analyzed the integration of geothermal district heating as a grid-responsive thermal resource within a microgrid in Tuttle, Oklahoma. Building energy modeling using EnergyPlus estimated annual district heating demand at 2.9 GWh, with a peak load of 2.8 MW th . Techno-economic analyses were conducted to meet the heating demand under three geothermal scenarios, varying by production depth, flow rate, and thermal output, each supplemented by natural gas peaking boilers. In parallel, equivalent electrical load profiles were developed using typical coefficients of performance (COPs) for air-source heat pumps and electric boilers to establish an electrified baseline scenario. A complete end-use electrical load profile was also developed for the microgrid using Cambium dataset. The modeling results demonstrated reliable and economic operation of the geothermal systems over 30 years, with COPs ranging from 2.6 to 8.9 and the lowest levelized heating cost at $\$$54.6/MWh. Geothermal integration reduced electricity consumption by up to 94.7 % compared to the non-geothermal base case, yielding annual energy savings of up to $\$$803 k. Avoided grid costs ranged from $\$$65 k–$\$$147 k per year, with individual events avoiding up to $\$$4,863 per hour. Grid-responsive operation further reduced wholesale energy costs by 53–56 %. These findings demonstrate geothermal heating, traditionally treated as a non-grid-responsive thermal resource, can be reconfigured to support dynamic grid services, offering a scalable pathway to enhance reliability and reduce costs in renewable-rich microgrids and district heating networks.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Partially Observed Epidemics - Application to COVID-19

This report documents a statistical method for the "real-time" characterization of partially observed epidemics. Observations consist of daily counts of symptomatic patients, diagnosed with the disease. Characterization, in this context, refers to estimation of epidemiological parameters that can be used to provide short-term forecasts of the ongoing epidemic, as well as to provide gross information for the time-dependent infection rate. The characterization problem is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and is predicated on a model for the distribution of the incubation period. The model parameters are estimated as distributions using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates. The method is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, using data at the country, provincial (e.g., states) and regional (e.g. county) levels. The epidemiological model includes a stochastic component due to uncertainties in the incubation period. This model-form uncertainty is accommodated by a pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings MCMC sampler, which produces posterior distributions that reflect this uncertainty. We approximate the discrepancy between the data and the epidemiological model using Gaussian and negative binomial error models; the latter was motivated by the over-dispersed count data. For small daily counts we find the performance of the calibrated models to be similar for the two error models. For large daily counts the negative-binomial approximation is numerically unstable unlike the Gaussian error model. Application of the model at the country level (for the United States, Germany, Italy, etc.) generally provided accurate forecasts, as the data consisted of large counts which suppressed the day-to-day variations in the observations. Further, the bulk of the data is sourced over the duration before the relaxation of the curbs on population mixing, and is not confounded by any discernible country-wide second wave of infections. At the state-level, where reporting was poor or which evinced few infections (e.g., New Mexico), the variance in the data posed some, though not insurmountable, difficulties, and forecasts were able to capture the data with large uncertainty bounds. The method was found to be sufficiently sensitive to discern the flattening of the infection and epidemic curve due to shelter-in-place orders after around 90% quantile for the incubation distribution (about 10 days for COVID-19). The proposed model was also used at a regional level to compare the forecasts for the central and north-west regions of New Mexico. Modeling the data for these regions illustrated different disease spread dynamics captured by the model. While in the central region the daily counts peaked in the late April, in the north-west region the ramp-up continued for approximately three more weeks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Comprehensive Comparison of Building Height Products at a Global Level

The built environment continues to expand due to increasing human populations with some projections indicating additional growth of 2.5 billion persons by 2050. Buildings are a key component of the built environment and information on building height and urban morphology in general can help to better understand and address a host of development and urban planning issues including energy consumption, urbanization, population dynamics, urban heat islands, environmental degradation, and others. To date, several approaches have been developed to address the need for mapping building height at scale. These approaches can be grouped into two main categories: 1) directly measure height from remote sensing products or 2) indirectly estimate height from footprint morphology features at the building-by-building level. Due to a number of these global height datasets now being available for consumption and use across domains, there is a critical need to understand the differences displayed between these products and how the use of these may influence the outcome when applied. In this analysis, we compare and evaluate 5 global building height datasets: Global Human Settlement, World Settlement Footprint 3D, Global Building Morphology dataset, three-dimensional Global Building Footprints, and an approach developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). Our analysis shows that, across 5 cities at a global scale with high-quality building height reference data, the approach developed by ORNL of inferring height at the building-by-building level is more accurate and consistent. This was evidenced by the ORNL product improving upon the baseline in all 5 cities, the only product to do so. These findings will aid researchers in choosing a global building height product that best meets their needs and provides global availability, consistency, and accuracy.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

FAD-Toolset (Floating Array Design Toolset) [SWR-26-056]

The Floating Array Design (FAD) Toolset is a collection of tools for modeling and designing arrays of floating offshore structures. It was originally designed for floating wind systems but has applicability for many offshore applications. A core part of the FAD Toolset is the floating array model, which serves as a high-level library for efficiently modeling a floating array, such as a floating wind array. It combines site condition information and a description of the floating array design, and contains functions for evaluating the array's behavior considering the site conditions. For example, it combines information about site soil conditions, mooring line loads, and an array's anchor characteristics to estimate the holding capacity of each anchor. The library works in conjunction with the tools RAFT, MoorPy, and FLORIS to model floating platforms, wind turbines, mooring systems, power cables, and array wakes respectively. Layered on top of the floating array model is a set of design tools that can be used for algorithmically adjusting or optimizing parts of the a floating array. Specific tools existing for mooring lines, shared mooring systems, dynamic power cables, static power cable routing, and overall array layout. These capabilities work with the design representation and evaluation functions in the floating array model, and they can be applied by users in various combinations to suit different purposes. In addition to standalone uses of the FAD Toolset, a coupling has been made with Ard, (https://github.com/NLRWindSystems/Ard) a sophisticated and flexible wind farm optimization tool. This coupling allows Ard to use certain mooring system capabilities from FAD to perform layout optimization of floating wind farms with Ard's more advanced layout optimization capabilities. The FAD Toolset works with the IEA Wind Task 49 Ontology (https://github.com/IEAWindTask49/Ontology), which provides a standardized format for describing floating wind farm sites and designs. See example use cases in our examples folder (https://github.com/NLRWindSystems/FAD-Toolset/blob/main/examples/README.md) For working with the library, it is important to understand the floating array model structure, which is described more here: https://github.com/NLRWindSystems/FAD-Toolset/blob/main/fad/README.md.

Sirkis, Leah [National Laboratory of the Rockies (↗
DOE OSTI2026

Towards modeling phage therapy

Patients infected with life-threatening multi-drug resistant (MDR) bacteria have been treated with cocktails of bacteriophages. This is a complicated form of personalized medicine as the phages given to a patient have to be selected beforehand on the basis of their lytic capacity of the infecting bacteria. Because bacteria rapidly become resistant, the evolution of resistance to a diverse cocktail of phages is a complicated dynamical process, during which competing bacterial strains replace one another by accumulating several resistance mechanisms, each of which may involve a fitness cost. As a consequence, it is typically not known why a particular phage therapy succeeded or failed, and how one can optimize the composition of the cocktails to maximize the rate of success. To improve upon this, we extend an existing in vivo -calibrated mouse model into a novel mathematical model for the human situation, and include multiple phages infecting multiple bacterial strains, differing in their resistance to each of the phages. We adjust several parameter estimates of the bacterial model to the human situation, and use the model to describe a successful case of phage therapy involving several cocktails, each containing several phages. In the model, treatment success crucially depended on pretreatment resistance levels, and on the diversity and the timing of the cocktails. Once an appropriate cocktail is found, it is less important to further optimize the infection rates of the phages. Resistant bacterial strains expand rapidly when sensitive strains decline, and the higher the infectivity of the phages, the faster resistant strains expand. Because resistance evolves rapidly, it is best to provide a diverse set of phages right from the start of therapy, i.e., to hit hard and early, and create a high genetic barrier to bacterial resistance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Knowledge-informed deep learning for hydrological model calibration: an application to Coal Creek Watershed in Colorado

Abstract. Deep learning (DL)-assisted inverse mapping has shown promise in hydrological model calibration by directly estimating parameters from observations. However, the increasing computational demand for running the state-of-the-art hydrological model limits sufficient ensemble runs for its calibration. In this work, we present a novel knowledge-informed deep learning method that can efficiently conduct the calibration using a few hundred realizations. The method involves two steps. First, we determine decisive model parameters from a complete parameter set based on the mutual information (MI) between model responses and each parameter computed by a limited number of realizations (∼50). Second, we perform more ensemble runs (e.g., several hundred) to generate the training sets for the inverse mapping, which selects informative model responses for estimating each parameter using MI-based parameter sensitivity. We applied this new DL-based method to calibrate a process-based integrated hydrological model, the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), at Coal Creek Watershed, CO. The calibration is performed against observed stream discharge (Q) and remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) from the water year 2017 to 2019. Preliminary MI analysis on 50 realizations resulted in a down-selection of 7 out of 14 ATS model parameters. Then, we performed a complete MI analysis on 396 realizations and constructed the inverse mapping from informative responses to each of the selected parameters using a deep neural network. Compared with calibration using observations covering all time steps, the new inverse mapping improves parameter estimations, thus enhancing the performance of ATS forward model runs. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of streamflow predictions increases from 0.53 to 0.8 when calibrating against Q alone. Using ET observations, on the other hand, does not show much improvement on the performance of ATS modeling mainly due to both the uncertainty of the remotely sensed product and the insufficient coverage of the model ET ensemble in capturing the observation. By using observed Q only, we further performed a multiyear analysis and show that Q is best simulated (NSE > 0.8) by including in the calibration the dry-year flow dynamics that show more sensitivity to subsurface characteristics than the other wet years. Moreover, when continuing the forward runs till the end of 2021, the calibrated models show similar simulation performances during this evaluation period as the calibration period, demonstrating the ability of the estimated parameters in capturing climate sensitivity. Our success highlights the importance of leveraging data-driven knowledge in DL-assisted hydrological model calibration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) to Estimate Water Transit Times and Hydrologic Tracer Dynamics Within Water‐Tagging Enabled Hydrologic Models

Determining the age distribution of water exiting a catchment is important for understanding groundwater storage and mixing. New water-tagging capabilities within models track precipitation events as they move through simulated storages, yet forward modeling of individual events may not systematically capture the full transit time distribution (TTD). Here, we present a “sequential precipitation input tagging” (SPIT) framework to tag all input precipitation at regular intervals during extended model simulations. Monthly tags over 7 years were applied at six National Ecological Observatory Network sites to calculate TTDs and derive mean virtual tracer age, $\overline{T_{V}}$, fractions of young water, F yw , and hydrologic tracer concentrations (water isotopes δ 18 O and δ 2 H) within a tagging enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecast hydrologic model (WRF-Hydro). Throughout seven simulation years, the fraction of simulated discharge derived from tagged events, F tag , increased each year, with the final year's F tag ranging from 66% to 100% and highlights the need to apply SPIT over many years to understand TTDs. When the F tag was >75%, simulated $\overline{T_{V}}$ ranged 179–923 days and F yw 0.6%–23.9%, with daily values exhibiting a power-law relationship with precipitation, discharge, and groundwater. Through implementation of SPIT, we find this hydrologic model configuration performs poorly in estimation of $\overline{T_{V}}$ and F yw (root mean squared error of 469 days and 14.4% respectively), suggesting it misrepresents subsurface mixing. Thus, the SPIT framework provides a reproducible approach to calculate watershed transit times within tagging enabled models and thereby assess and improve representation of hydrologic processes.

fraction of young water↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Cislunar Orbit Lifetimes from Initial Orbital Elements

The volume of space between Earth’s geosynchronous orbit out to the Moon’s sphere of influence, including the lunar Lagrange points, is crucial for the successful planning and execution of space missions, but not fully understood dynamically. This region is a part of cislunar space. Trajectories through cislunar space are influenced by the gravitational forces of the Sun, Earth, Moon, and other Solar System planets leading to typically unpredictable and chaotic trajectory behavior. It is therefore difficult to predict the stability of an trajectory through cislunar space from a set of initial conditions or orbital elements. We simulate one million cislunar orbits to train a self-organizing map (SOM) to cluster the trajectories and orbits into families based on how long they remain stable within the cislunar space. Using the trained SOM, we are able to predict the stable lifetime of a trajectory through cislunar space from a set of initial orbital elements to within an accuracy of 10% for 8% of simulated trajectories and within 50% for 43% of the simulated trajectories. Clustering in the SOM suggests that a variety of trajectory morphologies have similar lifetimes. Once trained, the SOM can predict the stable lifetime of a given cislunar trajectory within milliseconds. The methods developed in this work enable the rapid identification of stable cislunar orbits and trajectories that could be used for future space exploration. Moreover, the developed SOM method can generate orbital and trajectory lifetime estimates from minimal observational data, such as a single two line element, making it useful for early warning systems and large-scale sensor network operations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Dynamic-to-Static Correction Factor from Petrophysical Data and Chemostratigraphy using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Estimating static mechanical properties of stratigraphic layers is critical for optimizing subsurface engineering applications. To estimate dynamic-to-static correction factor F ds (static-to-dynamic Young’s modulus ratio) across the Caney shale interval in Oklahoma, USA, we integrated triaxial test measurements and petrophysical data, including well logs and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) using unsupervised machine learning (ML). We used a novel workflow that includes principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce data set dimensionality of well logs and XRF data sets—both separately and combined—creating three scenarios, and later applied inverse distance weighting (IDW) to derive F ds profiles for these scenarios. Furthermore, we applied K-means clustering on each scenario to predict depositional facies, and built a stiffness zonation profile through chemostratigraphic analysis of the terrigenous elements to validate the predicted F ds . The predicted F ds profile from each scenario using the PCA-IDW method was compared with the constant F ds approach from our previous study by calculating the root mean square error (RMSE). The combined data sets scenario yielded the lowest RMSE value of 0.113, while the RMSE values for the well logs and XRF scenarios were 0.131 and 0.129, respectively. In addition, the predicted F ds from the XRF scenario well-matched the stiffness zonation from the chemostratigraphic analysis that was built using the optimized K-means clustering of nine clusters for that scenario. These methods and findings offer a valuable tool for refining lithological classification and improving the F ds profile, potentially enhancing drilling and stimulation strategies for subsurface energy engineering applications.

clastic rock↗
DOE OSTI2025

Valued peaks: Sustainable water allocation for small hydropower plants in an era of explicit ecological needs

Optimizing hydropower operations to balance economic profitability and support functioning ecosystem services is integral to river management policy. In this article, we propose a dynamic, constrained optimization framework for small hydropower plants (SHPs) to evaluate trade-offs between economic profitability and socio-ecological requirements. Specifically, we examine the balance between short-term losses in hydropower generation and the potential for compensatory benefits in the form of revenue from recreational ecosystem services, irrespective of the direct beneficiary. Our framework integrates a fish habitat model, a hydropower optimization model, and a recreational ecosystem service estimate to evaluate different environmental flow scenarios. The optimization process gives three outflow release scenarios, informed by previous streamflow realisations (dam inflow), and designed environmental flow constraints. The framework is applied and tested for the river Kuusinkijoki in North-eastern Finland, which is a habitat for migratory brown trout and grayling populations. We show that the revenue loss due to the environmental flow constraints arises through a reduction in revenue per generated energy unit and through a reduction in turbine efficiency. Additionally, the simulation results reveal that all the designed environmental flow constraints cannot be met simultaneously. Under the environmental flow scenario with both minimum flow and flow ramping rate constraints, the annual hydropower revenue decreases by 16.5 %. An annual increase of 8 % in recreational fishing visits offsets the revenue loss. In conclusion, the developed framework provides knowledge of the costs and benefits of hydropower environmental flow constraints and guides the prioritizing process of environmental measures.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neutral gas pressure dependence of ion–ion mutual neutralization rate constants using Landau–Zener theory coupled with trajectory simulations

In this computational study, we describe a self-consistent trajectory simulation approach to capture the effect of neutral gas pressure on ion–ion mutual neutralization (MN) reactions. The electron transfer probability estimated using Landau–Zener (LZ) transition state theory is incorporated into classical trajectory simulations to elicit predictions of MN cross sections in vacuum and rate constants at finite neutral gas pressures. Electronic structure calculations with multireference configuration interaction and large correlation consistent basis sets are used to derive inputs to the LZ theory. The key advance of our trajectory simulation approach is the inclusion of the effect of ion-neutral interactions on MN using a Langevin representation of the effect of background gas on ion transport. For H + – H – and Li + – H(D) – , our approach quantitatively agrees with measured speed-dependent cross sections for up to ~10 5 m/s. For the ion pair Ne + – Cl – , our predictions of the MN rate constant at ~1 Torr are a factor of ~2 to 3 higher than the experimentally measured value. Similarly, for Xe + – F – in the pressure range of ~20 000–80 000 Pa, our predictions of the MN rate constant are ~20% lower but are in excellent qualitative agreement with experimental data. Here, the paradigm of using trajectory simulations to self-consistently capture the effect of gas pressure on MN reactions advanced here provides avenues for the inclusion of additional nonclassical effects in future work.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

A numerical study of process complexity in permafrost dominated regions

Numerical modeling of permafrost dynamics requires adequate representation of atmospheric and surface processes, a reasonable parameter estimation strategy, and site-specific model development. The three main research objectives of the study are: (i) to propose a novel methodology that determines the required level of surface process complexity of permafrost models by conducting parameter sensitivity and calibration, (ii) to design and compare three numerical models of increasing surface process complexity, and (iii) to calibrate and validate the numerical models at the Yakou catchment on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as an exemplary study site. The calibration was carried out by coupling the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (numerical model) and PEST (calibration tool). Simulation results showed that (i) A simple numerical model that considers only subsurface processes can simulate active layer development with the same accuracy as other more complex models that include surface processes. (ii) Peat and mineral soil layer permeability, Van Genuchten alpha, and porosity are highly sensitive. (iii) Liquid precipitation aids in increasing the rate of permafrost degradation. (iv) Deposition of snow insulated the subsurface during the thaw initiation period. We have developed and released an integrated code that couples the numerical software ATS to the calibration software PEST. The numerical model can be further used to determine the impacts of climate change on permafrost degradation.

Calibration↗
DOE OSTI2017

Dissection of the angle of single fluorophore attached to the nucleotide in corkscrewing microtubules

Direct dissection of the angles of single fluorophores under an optical microscope has been a challenging approach to study the dynamics of proteins in an aqueous solution. For angle quantifications of single substrates, however, there was only one report (Nishizaka et al., 2014) because of difficulties of construction of experimental systems with active proteins working at the single-molecule level. We here show precise estimation of orientation of single fluorescent nucleotides bound to single tubulins that comprise microtubule. When single-headed kinesins immobilized on a glass surface drive the sliding of microtubules, microtubules show corkscrewing with regular pitches (Yajima et al., 2005 & 2008). We found, by using a three-dimensional tracking microscope, that S8A mutant kinesin also showed precise corkscrewing with a 330-nm pitch, which is 13% longer than that of the wild type. The assay with the mutant was combined with a defocused imaging technique to visualize the rotational behavior of fluorescent nucleotide bound to corkscrewing microtubule. Notably, the defocused pattern of single TAMRA-GTP periodically changed, precisely correlating to its precession movement. The time course of the change in the fluorophore angle projected to the xy-plane enabled to estimate both the fluorophore orientation against microtubule axis and the precision of angle-determination of analyses system. The orientation showed main distribution with peaks at∼40°, 50° and 60°. To identify their molecular conformations, the rigorous docking simulations were performed using an atomic-level structure modeled by fitting x-ray crystal structures to the cryo-electron microscopy map. Among isomers, 2′-O-EDA-GDP labeled with 5- or 6-TAMRA were mainly specified as possible candidates as a substrate, which suggested the hydrolysis of TAMRA-GTP by tubulins. - Highlights: • The mutant of single-headed kinesin drives the corkscrewing of microtubules with a longer pitch. • Orientation of single fluorescent GTP on rotating microtubule was measured by defocused imaging. • The orientation showed the distribution with peaks at∼40°, 50° and 60° against microtubule axis. • Docking simulation reveals possible molecular conformations and state of nucleotide on tubulin.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impact of vertical and seasonal variation in leaf traits on simulating soybean canopy photosynthesis via 1D and 3D modeling

Accurate modeling of photosynthesis is crucial for predicting crop productivity and quantifying the carbon cycle in agroecosystems. Leaf traits are essential inputs for modeling canopy photosynthesis. Yet, many existing models still use fixed plant functional type (PTF)-based values to parameterize leaf traits under a big-leaf or two-big-leaf assumption, neglecting their vertical profiles and seasonal changes. This simplification may introduce significant uncertainties in estimating gross primary productivity (GPP). In this study, we simulated soybean GPP and tested the effects of vertical and seasonal variation in three key leaf photosynthetic traits: the maximum carboxylation rate at 25 °C (Vcmax 25 ), leaf chlorophyll content (LCC), and leaf mass per area (LMA) in the 1D-SCOPE and 3D-Helios models. Weekly field measurements were conducted during the growing season of 2024 to support the simulation. We designed ten leaf trait parameterization schemes by incorporating different combinations of vertical profiles and seasonal changes, while assuming homogeneous canopy architecture in both models. Our results revealed that Vcmax 25 vertical and seasonal variation had the strongest influence on simulated GPP in both 1D and 3D models, while LCC and LMA effects were minimal. Particularly, the scheme with an empirically parameterized Vcmax 25 profile achieved comparable performance to the scheme with the measured Vcmax 25 profile. Both 1D-SCOPE and 3D-Helios accurately modeled GPP (SCOPE: R 2 = 0.87, Bias = 0.55 µmol m⁻² s⁻¹; Helios: R 2 = 0.9, Bias = 0.22 µmol m⁻² s⁻¹) under the most complex scheme, and their responses to vertical and seasonal variation in leaf traits were consistent, demonstrating the robustness of our findings. Based on our findings, we propose a scalable framework for parameterizing leaf traits to improve GPP simulations. This study contributes to improving the representation of leaf trait dynamics in canopy-level photosynthesis models, potentially enhancing our ability to predict crop productivity and understand agroecosystem carbon dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fallowed agricultural lands dominate anthropogenic dust sources in California

Air pollution remains a major problem in many parts of California, significantly impacting public health and regional climate. However, the contribution of anthropogenic dust from agricultural sources, among major pollutants in California’s semi-arid Central Valley, remains largely unclear. Here, we used the Cropland Data Layer from the U.S. Department of Agriculture to identify crop types and land use/cover and leveraged satellite-derived estimates of major dust events between 2008 and 2022 over California. We identified fallowed land—an unplanted agricultural land parcel—as a key anthropogenic dust source in California. Specifically, we find that the Central Valley accounts for about 77% of total fallowed land areas in California, where they are associated with about 88% of major anthropogenic dust events. We also find that the geographic coverage of these fallowed lands expanded between 2008 and 2022 with associated increasing anthropogenic dust activities. Additionally, these anthropogenic dust activities are sensitive to the drought severity over the fallowed lands, with potential cumulative effects on downstream dust burden during prolonged multi-year drought conditions. Overall, our results have important implications for public health, including increased risk for Valley fever and for regional climates, such as increases in extreme precipitation and snowmelt over the Sierra Nevada.

Climate sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Consequences of the failure of equipartition for the p – V behavior of liquid water and the hydration free energy components of a small protein

Earlier we showed that in the molecular dynamics simulation of a rigid model of water it is necessary to use an integration time-step δ t ≤ 0.5 fs to ensure equipartition between translational and rotational modes. Here we extend that study in the NVT ensemble to NpT conditions and to an aqueous protein. We study neat liquid water with the rigid, SPC/E model and the protein BBA (PDB ID: 1FME) solvated in the rigid, TIP3P model. We examine integration time-steps ranging from 0.5 fs to 4.0 fs for various thermostat plus barostat combinations. We find that a small δ t is necessary to ensure consistent prediction of the simulation volume. Hydrogen mass repartitioning alleviates the problem somewhat, but is ineffective for the typical time-step used with this approach. The compressibility, a measure of volume fluctuations, and the dielectric constant, a measure of dipole moment fluctuations, are also seen to be sensitive to δ t . Using the mean volume estimated from the NpT simulation, we examine the electrostatic and van der Waals contribution to the hydration free energy of the protein in the NVT ensemble. These contributions are also sensitive to δ t . In going from δ t = 2 fs to δ t = 0.5 fs, the change in the net electrostatic plus van der Waals contribution to the hydration of BBA is already in excess of the folding free energy reported for this protein.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Marine Ecosystem Dynamics and Biogeochemical Cycling With Multiple Plankton Functional Types

Current representations of marine ecosystems in Earth System Models are greatly simplified, neglecting key interactions between dynamic food webs, biogeochemistry, and climate change. We use the Marine Biogeochemistry Library code base within the Community Earth System Model 2.2.2 to create an expanded ecosystem model with eight phytoplankton groups and four zooplankton size classes (MARBL-8P4Z). Incorporating more specific plankton types and size classes has the potential to capture a wider range of possible behaviors of the ecosystem, its complex interactions with biogeochemistry, and its feedback to climate change. It also permits stronger observational constraints, including in situ group-specific biomass and various observational estimates of plankton community composition. MARBL-8P4Z broadly captures observed global-scale patterns in biomass and community composition for both phytoplankton and zooplankton, with a good performance in simulating broad biogeochemistry fields. The model shows comparable spatial patterns and magnitudes to the observed picophytoplankton biomass (Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus, picoeukaryotes), and captures the seasonal cycle of mesozooplankton biomass. Picophytoplankton groups and microzooplankton dominate biomass and production in oligotrophic, subtropical regions, while nano-phytoplankton, diatoms and the larger zooplankton groups prevail at higher latitudes and within upwelling zones. The model simulates reasonable energy transfer efficiency through the food web, with tight linkages between the phytoplankton community composition, zooplankton grazing, and carbon export, with the potential to link to fisheries models. Thus, MARBL-8P4Z has the potential to account for key climate-driven ecological shifts in the plankton that will modify ocean biogeochemistry in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integration of a grey-box refrigerated case model in EnergyPlus via Python plugin

Commercial buildings, in particular grocery stores (due mainly to their large refrigeration load), provide opportunities for energy cost reductions. Grocery stores could offer substantial load flexibility to the power grid through participation in demand response programs because of their usage patterns and relatively high energy intensity. This load flexibility could come from modifying the control of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, refrigeration systems, or both. Although estimation of the HVAC system’s load flexibility potential is relatively targeted in the literature, estimating load flexibility of refrigeration systems is nascent and has been a challenge, in part because of the lack of proper simulation tools that capture the dynamics in the refrigeration cases. The existing refrigerated case model within EnergyPlus, a whole building energy simulation program, assumes a constant case temperature throughout the simulation period and does not explicitly model the cycling of the compressor serving the refrigerated case. In addition, it does not encompass modeling of temperatures of the product inside the refrigerated case. This difference between modeled and actual operation can be a barrier to the development of demand control algorithm and accurate analysis of load flexibility potential. In this paper, we present a grey-box model for modeling refrigerated cases in grocery stores, which include medium temperature and low temperature. Four cases are modeled; two are low-temperature closed cases and two are medium-temperature cases with one closed and one open. Data from an experimental facility are used to train and test the models. Results demonstrate the efficacy of the grey-box models in predicting the temperatures. This model is integrated into EnergyPlus to capture the dynamic effects of case temperature on the environment and enhance the calculation of sensible and latent heat exchange with the environment (case credits). These enhancements can be leveraged more broadly to model advanced refrigeration controls such as defrost, develop and test unique algorithms that could affect refrigeration interactions with HVAC, and refine store design for any commercial building with refrigeration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗