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Benchmarking Simulated Precipitation Variability Amplitude across Time Scales
Here, objective performance metrics that measure precipitation variability across time scales from subdaily to interannual are presented and applied to Historical simulations of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6) models. Three satellite-based precipitation estimates (IMERG, TRMM, and CMORPH) are used as reference data. We apply two independent methods to estimate temporal variability of precipitation and compare the consistency in their results. The first method is derived from power spectra analysis of 3-hourly precipitation, measuring forced variability by solar insolation (diurnal and annual cycles) and internal variability at different time scales (subdaily, synoptic, subseasonal, seasonal, and interannual). The second method is based on time averaging and facilitates estimating the seasonality of subdaily variability. Supporting the robustness of our metric, we find a near equivalence between the results obtained from the two methods when examining simulated-to-observed ratios over large domains (global, tropics, extratropics, land, or ocean). Additionally, we demonstrate that our model evaluation is not very sensitive to the discrepancies between observations. Our results reveal that CMIP5 and CMIP6 models in general overestimate the forced variability while they underestimate the internal variability, especially in the tropical ocean and higher-frequency variability. The underestimation of subdaily variability is consistent across different seasons. The internal variability is overall improved in CMIP6, but remains underestimated, and there is little evidence of improvement in forced variability. Increased horizontal resolution results in some improvement of internal variability at subdaily and synoptic time scales, but not at longer time scales.
A Method for Correcting Frequency Estimates for Synthetic Inertia Control
Not Available
Bootstrapping and Jackknife Resampling to Improve Sparse-sample UQ Methods for Tail Probability Estimation.
Abstract not provided.
Rain Drop Size Distributions Estimated from NOAA Snow-Level Radar Data
Using NOAA’s S-band High-Power Snow-Level Radar (HPSLR), a technique for estimating the rain drop size distribution (DSD) above the radar is presented. This technique assumes the DSD can be described by a four parameter, generalized gamma distribution (GGD). Using the radar’s measured average Doppler velocity spectrum and a value (assumed, measured, or estimated) of the vertical air motion w, an estimate of the GGD is obtained. Four different methods can be used to obtain w. One method that estimates a mean mass-weighted raindrop diameter D m from the measured reflectivity Z produces realistic DSDs compared to prior literature examples. These estimated DSDs provide evidence that the radar can retrieve the smaller drop sizes constituting the “drizzle” mode part of the DSD. Here, this estimation technique was applied to 19 h of observations from Hankins, North Carolina. Results support the concept that DSDs can be modeled using GGDs with a limited range of parameters. Further work is needed to validate the described technique for estimating DSDs in more varied precipitation types and to verify the vertical air motion estimates.
The Profiled Feldman-Cousins method for confidence interval estimation in the presence of nuisance parameters [Poster]
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Simplified Method for Determining the Estimated Uncertainty for Digital Sampling Instruments.
Abstract not provided.
Beyond Point Estimates: Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods on the AION-1 Astronomical Foundation Model
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Method for Determining the Estimated Timing Uncertainty for Digital Sampling Instruments .
Abstract not provided.
Eclipse design limits for circular orbits.
By means of simple geometric construction compact expressions for the maximum and minimum eclipse durations of a circular orbit, whose semimajor axis and inclination are specified, can be obtained. The method outlined in this note provides the designer with the necessary envelope of eclipse durations that a spacecraft will experience throughout its lifetime, and, therefore, provides a quick method of estimating necessary thermal constraints. Moreover, the closed form method presented eliminates the need for extensive machine time expenditure previously required for this type of analysis. Some numerical data to aid in the design of the spacecraft is provided.
Signature extension methods in crop area estimation
The Procedure B multispectral processing system is both multisegment and multistratum. It uses data from several LACIE-sized segments together and makes a proportion estimate for the entire group of segments as well as for the individual segments. In the clustering of data features, Procedure B produces multiple classes or strata rather than just two strata (as in Procedure 1), and performs stratified sampling on each of these mutliple strata in order to make a proportion estimate. Tests results for the components and for the overall performance of Procedure B are presented, and conclusions that can be drawn from these tests are discussed. The rationale for signature extension for crop area estimation is summarized.
Estimating proportions of materials using mixture models
An approach to proportion estimation based on the notion of a mixture model, appropriate parametric forms for a mixture model that appears to fit observed remotely sensed data, methods for estimating the parameters in these models, methods for labelling proportion determination from the mixture model, and methods which use the mixture model estimates as auxiliary variable values in some proportion estimation schemes are addressed.
Application of an aerodynamic analysis method including attainable thrust estimates to low speed leading-edge flap design for supersonic cruise vehicles
A study of low speed leading-edge flap design for supersonic cruise vehicle was conducted. Wings with flaps were analyzed with the aid of a newly developed subsonic wing program which provides estimates of attainable leading-edge thrust. Results indicate that the thrust actually attainable can have a significant influence on the design and that the resultant flaps can be smaller and simpler than those resulting from more conventional approaches.
Reliability analysis of structural ceramic components using a three-parameter Weibull distribution
Described here are nonlinear regression estimators for the three-Weibull distribution. Issues relating to the bias and invariance associated with these estimators are examined numerically using Monte Carlo simulation methods. The estimators were used to extract parameters from sintered silicon nitride failure data. A reliability analysis was performed on a turbopump blade utilizing the three-parameter Weibull distribution and the estimates from the sintered silicon nitride data.
Reliability analysis of structural ceramic components using a three-parameter Weibull distribution
Described here are nonlinear regression estimators for the three-parameter Weibull distribution. Issues relating to the bias and invariance associated with these estimators are examined numerically using Monte Carlo simulation methods. The estimators were used to extract parameters from sintered silicon nitride failure data. A reliability analysis was performed on a turbopump blade utilizing the three-parameter Weibull distribution and the estimates from the sintered silicon nitride data.
A spectrophotometric method for identification and estimation of alkylnaphthalenic-type hydrocarbons in kerosene
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A Method for the Rapid Estimation of Turbulent Boundary-Layer Thickness for Calculating Profile Drag
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System and method for correcting attitude estimation
A system includes an angular rate sensor disposed in a vehicle for providing angular rates of the vehicle, and an instrument disposed in the vehicle for providing line-of-sight control with respect to a line-of-sight reference. The instrument includes an integrator which is configured to integrate the angular rates of the vehicle to form non-compensated attitudes. Also included is a compensator coupled across the integrator, in a feed-forward loop, for receiving the angular rates of the vehicle and outputting compensated angular rates of the vehicle. A summer combines the non-compensated attitudes and the compensated angular rates of the to vehicle to form estimated vehicle attitudes for controlling the instrument with respect to the line-of-sight reference. The compensator is configured to provide error compensation to the instrument free-of any feedback loop that uses an error signal. The compensator may include a transfer function providing a fixed gain to the received angular rates of the vehicle. The compensator may, alternatively, include a is transfer function providing a variable gain as a function of frequency to operate on the received angular rates of the vehicle.