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DOE OSTI2022

AN ESTIMATE OF SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL MECHANICAL LOADS IN THE GENERAL 30 CM PACKAGE DROP SCENARIO

The US Department of Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) program is performing research to determine the mechanical loading conditions applied to spent nuclear fuel (SNF) during normal conditions of transport to inform mechanical tests of SNF and close an important knowledge gap related to the practical disposition of SNF in the US. Researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) have completed an extensive finite element study to characterize and estimate the potential mechanical loads on SNF during a hypothetical 30 cm drop of an SNF transportation package. This modeling study is validated with test data collected by the SFWST program during a physical test campaign that included one-third scale package drop tests and full-scale single fuel assembly drop tests. The test campaign was led by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and included international collaboration with Equipos Nucleares S.A, S.M.E (ENSA) and Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und -prüfung (BAM). The key contribution of the modeling study is to go beyond the limitations of the limited number of physical tests to estimate the impact response to variations in impact angle, initial gap conditions, fuel assembly design, burnup and other parameters that affect the mechanical loads. The methodology of this study included a classic parametric study to calculate the impact response of highly detailed fuel assemblies over many combinations of parameters. Models of a 17x17 pressurized water reactor fuel assembly and a generic 10x10 boiling water reactor fuel assembly were both used in this study to cover the major fuel assembly types in the US inventory. Over 2,000 impact responses were calculated. The results of the parametric study were evaluated using traditional methods and basic statistics. The results were also used to construct a damage model using multiple nonlinear regression techniques to predict the mechanical loads over the full range of all input parameters. The damage model was found to work very well for all impact angle cases where the cask came to rest on its side. It was concluded that end drop cases where the cask remained vertical (instead of tipping over onto its side) were not sufficiently characterized by the current set of parametric study cases to include in the damage model, but it was not a priority to fully investigate that range because the highest mechanical loads were observed in the broader range of side impact cases. This modeling work provides sufficient insight into the mechanical loads on SNF during a hypothetical 30 cm package drop that, when considered along with the physical test data collected by the SNL-led team, the SFSWT program can consider the knowledge gap closed.

Klymyshyn, Nicholas A.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Multi-scale theory-assisted nano-engineering of plasmonic-organic hybrid electro-optic device performance

Multi-scale (correlated quantum and statistical mechanics) modeling methods have been advanced and employed to guide the improvement of organic electro-optic (OEO) materials, including by analyzing electric field poling induced electro-optic activity in nanoscopic plasmonic-organic hybrid (POH) waveguide devices. The analysis of in-device electro-optic activity emphasizes the importance of considering both the details of intermolecular interactions within organic electro-optic materials and interactions at interfaces between OEO materials and device architectures. Dramatic improvement in electro-optic device performance--including voltage-length performance, bandwidth, energy efficiency, and lower optical losses have been realized. These improvements are critical to applications in telecommunications, computing, sensor technology, and metrology. Multi-scale modeling methods illustrate the complexity of improving the electro-optic activity of organic materials, including the necessity of considering the trade-off between improving poling-induced acentric order through chromophore modification and the reduction of chromophore number density associated with such modification. Computational simulations also emphasize the importance of developing chromophore modifications that serve multiple purposes including matrix hardening for enhanced thermal and photochemical stability, control of matrix dimensionality, influence on material viscoelasticity, improvement of chromophore molecular hyperpolarizability, control of material dielectric permittivity and index of refraction properties, and control of material conductance. Consideration of new device architectures is critical to the implementation of chipscale integration of electronics and photonics and achieving the high bandwidths for applications such as next generation (e.g., 5G) telecommunications.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-G-IeP3-10: Molecular Imaging with Clinical X-Ray Sources and Compton Cameras

Purpose: The application of Compton cameras (CC) is a novel approach translating XFCT to a practical modality realized with clinical CT systems without the restriction of pencil beams. The dual modality design offers additional information without extra patient dose. The purpose of this work is to investigate the feasibility and efficacy of using CCs for volumetric x-ray fluorescence (XF) imaging by Monte Carlo (MC) simulations and statistical image reconstruction. Methods: The feasibility of a CC for imaging x-ray fluorescence emitted from targeted lesions is examined by MC simulations. 3 mm diameter water spheres with various gold concentrations and detector distances are placed inside the lung of an adult human phantom (MIRD) and are irradiated with both fan and cone-beam geometries. A sandwich design CC composed of Silicon and CdTe is used to image the gold nanoparticle distribution. The detection system comprises four 16×26 cm{sup 2} detector panels placed on the chest of a MIRD phantom. Constraints of energy-, spatial-resolution, clinical geometries and Doppler broadening are taken into account. Image reconstruction is performed with a list-mode MLEM algorithm with cone-projector on a GPU. Results: The comparison of reconstruction of cone- and fan-beam excitation shows that the spatial resolution is improved by 23% for fan-beams with significantly decreased processing time. Cone-beam excitation increases scatter content disturbing quantification of lesions near the body surface. Spatial resolution and detectability limit in the center of the lung is 8.7 mm and 20 fM for 50 nm diameter gold nanoparticles at 20 mGy. Conclusion: The implementation of XFCT with a CC is a feasible method for molecular imaging with high atomic number probes. Given constrains of detector resolutions, Doppler broadening, and limited exposure dose, spatial resolutions comparable with PET and molecular sensitivities in the fM range are realizable with current detector technology.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Discovering the Unknowns: A First Step

This article aims at discovering the unknown variables in the system through data analysis. The main idea is to use the time of data collection as a surrogate variable and try to identify the unknown variables by modeling gradual and sudden changes in the data. We use Gaussian process modeling and a sparse representation of the sudden changes to efficiently estimate the large number of parameters in the proposed statistical model. The method is tested on a realistic dataset generated using a one-dimensional implementation of a Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF) simulation model, and encouraging results are obtained.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

New results in the CTEQ-TEA global analysis of parton distributions in the nucleon

This report summarizes the latest developments in the CTEQ-TEA global analysis of parton distribution functions (PDFs) in the nucleon. The focus is on recent NNLO fits to high-precision LHC data at 8 and 13 TeV, including Drell–Yan, jet, and top-quark pair production, pursued on the way toward the release of the new generation of CTEQ-TEA general-purpose PDFs. The report also discusses advancements in statistical and numerical methods for PDF determination and uncertainty quantification, highlighting the importance of robust and replicable uncertainties for high-stakes observables. Additionally, it covers phenomenological studies related to PDF determination, such as the interplay of experimental constraints, exploration of correlations between high-x nucleon sea and low-energy parity-violating measurements, fitted charm in the nucleon, the photon PDF in the neutron, and simultaneous SMEFT-PDF analyses.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Manifold Learning: What, How, and Why

Manifold learning (ML), also known as nonlinear dimension reduction, is a set of methods to find the low-dimensional structure of data. Dimension reduction for large, high-dimensional data is not merely a way to reduce the data; the new representations and descriptors obtained by ML reveal the geometric shape of high-dimensional point clouds and allow one to visualize, denoise, and interpret them. This review presents the underlying principles of ML, its representative methods, and their statistical foundations, all from a practicing statistician's perspective. It describes the trade-offs and what theory tells us about the parameter and algorithmic choices we make in order to obtain reliable conclusions.

Mathematics↗

DOE OSTI2016

WEC Design Response Toolbox v. 1.0

The WEC Design Response Toolbox (WDRT) is a numerical toolbox for design-response analysis of wave energy converters (WECs). The WDRT was developed during a series of efforts to better understand WEC survival design. The WDRT has been designed as a tool for researchers and developers, enabling the straightforward application of statistical and engineering methods. The toolbox includes methods for short-term extreme response, environmental characterization, long-term extreme response and risk analysis, fatigue, and design wave composition.

Coe, Ryan↗

DOE OSTI2023

Robust Machine Learning

UQ4ML is a code repository for a set of tools for the development of robust machine learning methods, uncertainty quantification and explainability of machine learning methods. The goal of these tools is to develop more robust and statistically rigorous machine learning methods for scientific applications. These tools are developed in Python, a high-level programming language that takes advantage of the Python ecosystem of high-quality open-source packages for machine learning.

Oyen, Diane↗

DOE OSTI2020

Path Properties of Atmospheric Transitions: Illustration with a Low-Order Sudden Stratospheric Warming Model

Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the limited data that are available. Here we describe transition path theory (TPT), a framework originally developed for molecular simulation, and argue that it is a useful paradigm for developing mechanistic understanding of rare climate events. TPT provides a method to calculate statistical properties of the paths into the event. As an initial demonstration of the utility of TPT, we analyze a low-order model of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), a dramatic disturbance to the polar vortex that can induce extreme cold spells at the surface in the midlatitudes. SSW events pose a major challenge for seasonal weather prediction because of their rapid, complex onset and development. Climate models struggle to capture the long-term statistics of SSW, owing to their diversity and intermittent nature. We use a stochastically forced Holton–Mass-type model with two stable states, corresponding to radiative equilibrium and a vacillating SSW-like regime. In this stochastic bistable setting, from certain probabilistic forecasts TPT facilitates estimation of dominant transition pathways and return times of transitions. These “dynamical statistics” are obtained by solving partial differential equations in the model’s phase space. With future application to more complex models, TPT and its constituent quantities promise to improve the predictability of extreme weather events through both generation and principled evaluation of forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Estimation of Radiation Doses to U.S. Military Test Participants from Nuclear Testing: A Comparison of Historical Film-Badge Measurements, Dose Reconstruction and Retrospective Biodosimetry

Retrospective radiation dose estimations, whether based on physical or biological measurements, or on theoretical dose reconstruction, are limited in their precision and reliability, particularly for exposures that occurred many decades ago. Here, we studied living U.S. military test participants, believed to have received high-dose radiation exposures during nuclear testing-related activities approximately six decades ago, with two primary goals in mind. The first was to compare three different approaches of assessing past radiation exposures: 1. Historical personnel monitoring data alone; 2. Dose reconstruction based on varying levels of completeness of individual information, which can include film badge data; and 3. Retrospective biodosimetry using chromosome aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes. The second goal was to use the collected data to make the best possible estimates of bone marrow dose received by a group with the highest military recorded radiation doses of any currently living military test participants. Six nuclear test participants studied had been on Rongerik Atoll during the 1954 CASTLE Bravo nuclear test. Another six were present at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and/or Pacific Proving Ground (PPG) and were believed to have received relatively high-dose exposures at those locations. All were interviewed, and all provided a blood sample for cytogenetic analysis. Military dose records for each test participant, as recorded in the Defense Threat Reduction Agency's Nuclear Test Review and Information System, were used as the basis for historical film badge records and provided exposure scenario information to estimate dose via dose reconstruction. Dose to bone marrow was also estimated utilizing directional genomic hybridization (dGH) for high-resolution detection of radiation-induced chromosomal translocations and inversions, the latter being demonstrated for the first time for the purpose of retrospective biodosimetry. As the true dose for each test participant is not known these many decades after exposure, this study gauged the congruence of different methods by assessing the degree of correlation and degree of systematic differences. Overall, the best agreement between methods, defined by statistically significant correlations and small systematic differences, was between doses estimated by a dose reconstruction methodology that exploited all the available individual detail and the biodosimetry methodology derived from a weighted average dose determined from chromosomal translocation and inversion rates. Employing such a strategy, we found that the Rongerik veterans who participated in this study appear to have received, on average, bone marrow equivalent doses on the order of 300–400 mSv, while the NTS/ PPG participants appear to have received approximately 250–300 mSv. The results show that even for nuclear events that occurred six decades in the past, biological signatures of exposure are still present, and when taken together, chromosomal translocations and inversions can serve as reliable retrospective biodosimeters, particularly on a group-average basis, when doses received are greater than statistically-determined detection limits for the biological assays used.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2017

Comparison of Experimental Methods for Estimating Matrix Diffusion Coefficients for Contaminant Transport Modeling

Diffusion cell and diffusion wafer experiments were conducted to compare methods for estimating matrix diffusion coefficients in rock core samples from Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Nuclear Security Site (NNSS). A diffusion wafer method, in which a solute diffuses out of a rock matrix that is pre-saturated with water containing the solute, is presented as a simpler alternative to the traditional through-diffusion (diffusion cell) method. Both methods yielded estimates of matrix diffusion coefficients that were within the range of values previously reported for NNSS volcanic rocks. The difference between the estimates of the two methods ranged from 14 to 30%, and there was no systematic high or low bias of one method relative to the other. From a transport modeling perspective, these differences are relatively minor when one considers that other variables (e.g., fracture apertures, fracture spacings) influence matrix diffusion to a greater degree and tend to have greater uncertainty than diffusion coefficients. For the same relative random errors in concentration measurements, the diffusion cell method yields diffusion coefficient estimates that have less uncertainty than the wafer method. However, the wafer method is easier and less costly to implement and yields estimates more quickly, thus allowing a greater number of samples to be analyzed for the same cost and time. Given the relatively good agreement between the methods, and the lack of any apparent bias between the methods, the diffusion wafer method appears to offer advantages over the diffusion cell method if better statistical representation of a given set of rock samples is desired.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2018

Accelerating Feldman-Cousins on NOvA using NERSC Supercomputers

When fitting to data with low stats and near physical boundaries, extra measures need to be taken to ensure proper statistical coverage. The method NOvA uses is called the Feldman-Cousins procedure, which entails fitting thousands of independent pseudoexperiments to generate acceptance intervals that are then used to correct our fits. The scale required by the Feldman Cousins procedure makes it extremely computationally intensive. In past analyses, it has taken up to several weeks to complete, bottlenecking our final results. Here I present recent work by members of the NOvA experiment and the SciDAC4 collaboration to enable the use of the super-computing facilities at NERSC to process our Feldman-Cousins corrections over 150x faster, allowing us to do more studies, increase the precision of our fits, and produce results quickly.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

We Know Where We Don't Know: 3D Bayesian CNNs for Credible Geometric Uncertainty

Deep learning has been successfully applied to the segmentation of 3D Computed Tomography (CT) scans. Establishing the credibility of these segmentations requires uncertainty quantification (UQ) to identify untrustworthy predictions. Recent UQ architectures include Monte Carlo dropout networks (MCDNs), which approximate deep Gaussian processes, and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), which learn the distribution of the weight space. BNNs are advantageous over MCDNs for UQ but are thought to be computationally infeasible in high dimension, and neither architecture has produced interpretable geometric uncertainty maps. We propose a novel 3D Bayesian convolutional neural network (BCNN), the first deep learning method which generates statistically credible geometric uncertainty maps and scales for application to 3D data. We present experimental results on CT scans of graphite electrodes and laser-welded metals and show that our BCNN outperforms an MCDN in recent uncertainty metrics. The geometric uncertainty maps generated by our BCNN capture distributions of sigmoid values that are interpretable as confidence intervals, critical for applications that rely on deep learning for high-consequence decisions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

LBNL CRADA (FP00009949) with the American Public Power Association: Electricity Reliability Metrics, Analysis, and Planning (Final Technical Report)

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Electricity Reliability Metrics, Analysis, and Planning (CRADA Final Report)

LBNL and APPA (the team) jointly examined the extent to which differences in distribution feeder characteristics are correlated with differences in their reliability performance when exposed to three different types of natural hazards (wildlife, weather, and vegetation). The team employed data-driven approaches to quantify the relationships between various measures of feeder reliability and a suite of feeder characteristics individually and jointly via a statistically-based clustering method. The team developed suggestions on how comparisons across groupings of feeders and review of the relative contributions of the constituents of SAIFI and SAIDI could be used to help prioritize utility actions to improve reliability. However, they also caution that their suggestions require further evaluation because they are based on only one year of information from a modest number of small utilities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2016

AGC-1 Irradiation Induced Property Changes Analysis Report: Dynamic Elastic Modulus

Recent analyses of some of the test property data from the AGC-1 creep capsule are reported. Specifically the analyses of data for the effects of compressive creep strain on the Dynamic elastic modulus (by the fundamental frequency and ultrasonic velocity/tof methods) are reported. Statistical “t” testing was used to establish the statistical significance of any differences observed between the Dynamic elastic modulus of the creep (irradiated with compressive stress) and the control (irradiated without stress) specimens. Compressive creep strain does have a small effect on Dynamic elastic modulus, reducing it at the higher doses as volume turnaround is approached.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Baseline Cost Model for Hydropower: Documentation (2025)

Hydropower currently contributes about 80 GW of conventional and 23 GW of pumped storage capacity to the United States (US) power grid. Previous studies have estimated a considerable amount of remaining US hydropower resources, including non-powered dams (NPD) (Hadjerioua et al., 2012), new stream-reach developments (NSD) (Kao et al., 2014), pumped storage hydropower (PSH) and canal/conduit (Kao et al., 2022). The combined theoretical capacity potential of these various hydropower resources is comparable to the existing US hydropower capacity. There is a continuing interest in developing this hydropower potential, particularly to help meet the increasing demand for electricity. However, available data (Sasthav and Oladosu, 2022) show that the rate of new hydropower development has slowed considerably over time despite the interest of industry stakeholders. This is partly due to the competition from other energy resources and from the highly dispersed nature of remaining hydropower resources, which lead to high information requirements for evaluating the feasibility of potential projects. Cost information provides the most succinct summary of the feasibility of a potential hydropower project required by stakeholders, including developers, investors, policymakers, consumer groups, etc., considering investment options. The best estimates of hydropower costs can be obtained through detailed engineering design and cost assessments of individual projects. However, this approach has high data and resource (time, funds, cross-disciplinary expertise) requirements that render it inapplicable for rapid cost estimation with limited data. Although innovative approaches can overcome some of these impediments (see Oladosu and Ma, 2024 for such an application to potential NPD projects), the development of such approaches still requires significant amounts of resources and are not generally applicable to all hydropower project types. Therefore, statistical and parametric methods using simpler cost specifications remain of significant utility to hydropower stakeholders and are, at the least, complementary to more detailed approaches, particularly when evaluating many potential projects.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Neutrino Induced Charged Current Coherent Pion Production for Constraining the Muon Neutrino Flux at DUNE

We study neutrino induced charge current coherent pion production (νμ CC-Coh π) as a tool for constraining the neutrino flux at the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). The neutrino energy and flavor in the process can be directly reconstructed from the outgoing particles, making it especially useful to specifically constrain the muon neutrino component of the total flux. The cross section of this process can be obtained using the Adler relation with the π-Ar elastic scattering cross section, taken either from external data or, as we explore, from a simultaneous measurement in the DUNE near detector. We develop a procedure that leverages νμ CC-Coh π events to fit for the neutrino flux while simultaneously accounting for relevant effects in the cross section. We project that this method has the statistical power to constrain the uncertainty on the normalization of the flux at its peak to a few percent. This study demonstrates the potential utility of aνμ CC-Coh π flux constraint, though further work will be needed to determine the range of validity and precision of the Adler relation upon which it relies, as well as to measure the π-Ar elastic scattering cross section to the requisite precision. We discuss the experimental and phenomenological developments necessary to unlock the νμ CC-Coh π process as a "standard candle'' for neutrino experiments.

Putnam, Gray [Fermilab]↗