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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1977

One-way Doppler extractor

This paper presents a feasibility analysis, tradeoffs, and implementation for a one-way Doppler extractor system. A Doppler error analysis is discussed which shows that quantization error is a primary source of Doppler measurement error. Several competing extraction techniques are compared, and a 'Vernier' technique is presented which obtains high Doppler resolution with low-speed logic. Parameter tradeoffs and sensitivities for this Vernier technique are discussed, leading to a hardware design configuration. Also presented is a performance evaluation of the resulting breadboard model that verifies the theoretical performance predictions. The breadboard model contains the circuitry to interface with an S-band transponder, to extract the Doppler and time-interval counts, to compute navigational parameters by means of a microprocessor, and to display the results. Performance tests have verified that the breadboard is capable of extracting Doppler, on an S-band signal, to an accuracy of better than 0.02 hertz for a one-second averaging period. This corresponds to a range rate error of no more than 3 millimeters per second.

Nossen, E. J.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Discovery of 3.6-s X-ray pulsations from 4U0115+63

SAS 3 observations reveal a pulsation period of 3.61 sec for the transient X-ray source 4U0115+63. Positional measurement is accurate to approximately 30 arc s, and has led to the likely identification of an optical counterpart. The intensity of the pulses, as reported on 5.9 January 1978, is given as approximately 1.7 times that of the Crab Nebula (1-27 keV). Spectral information was also obtained from the ratios of counting rates in the first three energy channels of the center slat collimator detector (1-27 keV). Two classes of models are proposed to explain the transient nature of the X-ray sources: (1) episodic mass transfer in a binary system, and (2) eccentric binary orbits.

Cominsky, L.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Radiometric resolution for monitoring vegetation: How many bits are needed?

The significance of the various number of radiometric quantizing levels required for satellite monitoring of vegetation resources was evaluated by using in situ collected spectral reflectance data, an atmospheric radiative transfer simulation model, and a satellite sensor simulation model. Reflectance data were converted to radiance data; passed through a model atmosphere to an altitude of 706 km; and subsequently quantized at 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, and 512 digital count levels for Thematic Mapper bands TM3(0.63 - 0.69 microns) and TM4(0.76 - 0.90 microns). The simulated digital count data were regressed against the in situ biological data to quantify the relationship between quantizing levels.

Tucker, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Radiometric resolution for monitoring vegetation - how many bits are needed

The number of radiometric quantizing levels required for satellite monitoring of vegetation resources was evaluated by using in situ collected spectral reflectance data, an atmospheric radiative transfer simulation model, and a satellite sensor simulation model. Reflectance data were converted to radiance data, passed through a model atmosphere to an altitude of 706 km, and subsequently quantized at 16, 32, 64, 128, 256 and 512 digital count levels for Thematic Mapper bands TM3 (0.63-0.69 microns) and TM4 (0.76-0.90 microns). The simulated digital count data were regressed against in situ biological data to quantify the relationship between quantizing levels. Results of the analysis demonstrated that solar zenith angle has an effect on the quantization equivalent change in reflectance, that 256 quantizing levels gave a 1-3% improvement per channel over 64 quantizing levels, and that 256 quantizing levels gave a 1% improvement per channel over 128 quantizing levels. No improvements were found for 256 versus 512 quantizing levels.

Tucker, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Satellite Investigations of Fire, Smoke, and Carbon Monoxide during April 1994 MAPS Mission: Case Studies over Tropical Asia

During April 9-19, 1994, the Measurement of Air Pollution from Satellites (MAPS) measured free tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations on a near-global basis. For these eleven days the global lkm advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) Pathfinder data are used to detect fires and smoke over the Indo-Burma region (85 degrees E - 110 degrees E; 10 degrees N -30 degrees N). The fire activities are categorized for four major ecosystems that include (1) cropland/natural vegetation mosaic (CNVM), (2) evergreen broadleaf forest (EBF), (3) mixed forest (MFD), and (4) grassland (GL). Using published emission rates between particulate matter and carbon monoxide concentrations from temperate areas, the fire counts along with other information are used to obtain estimates of CO concentrations from the AVERR data. More than 7000 fires are detected during the study period with 23%, 43%, 24%, and 10% fires in the CNVM, EBF, MFD, and GL ecosystems, respectively. The enhanced CO concentrations over the area of study are either over or downwind of the fires detected by the AVHRR. The preliminary AVHRR estimates of CO concentrations are smaller than the MAPS-measured values by a factor of 4 to 5 for fire counts areater than 200. The differences are attributed to the lack of transport mechanisms and other assumptions in the current model. However, these results show a good potential for usino the AVHRR measurements to detect fires and smoke and also to estimate CO concentrations.

Christopher, Sundar A.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Analysis of Complexity Evolution Management and Human Performance Issues in Commercial Aircraft Automation Systems

Autoflight systems in the current generation of aircraft have been implicated in several recent incidents and accidents. A contributory aspect to these incidents may be the manner in which aircraft transition between differing behaviours or 'modes.' The current state of aircraft automation was investigated and the incremental development of the autoflight system was tracked through a set of aircraft to gain insight into how these systems developed. This process appears to have resulted in a system without a consistent global representation. In order to evaluate and examine autoflight systems, a 'Hybrid Automation Representation' (HAR) was developed. This representation was used to examine several specific problems known to exist in aircraft systems. Cyclomatic complexity is an analysis tool from computer science which counts the number of linearly independent paths through a program graph. This approach was extended to examine autoflight mode transitions modelled with the HAR. A survey was conducted of pilots to identify those autoflight mode transitions which airline pilots find difficult. The transitions identified in this survey were analyzed using cyclomatic complexity to gain insight into the apparent complexity of the autoflight system from the perspective of the pilot. Mode transitions which had been identified as complex by pilots were found to have a high cyclomatic complexity. Further examination was made into a set of specific problems identified in aircraft: the lack of a consistent representation of automation, concern regarding appropriate feedback from the automation, and the implications of physical limitations on the autoflight systems. Mode transitions involved in changing to and leveling at a new altitude were identified across multiple aircraft by numerous pilots. Where possible, evaluation and verification of the behaviour of these autoflight mode transitions was investigated via aircraft-specific high fidelity simulators. Three solution approaches to concerns regarding autoflight systems, and mode transitions in particular, are presented in this thesis. The first is to use training to modify pilot behaviours, or procedures to work around known problems. The second approach is to mitigate problems by enhancing feedback. The third approach is to modify the process by which automation is designed. The Operator Directed Process forces the consideration and creation of an automation model early in the design process for use as the basis of the software specification and training.

Vakil, Sanjay S.↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Variations of Neutron Component of Lunar Radiation Background from LEND LRO Observations

Lunar neutron flux data measured by the Lunar Exploration Neutron Detector (LEND) on board NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) were analyzed for the period 2009-2014.We have re-evaluated the instrument's collimation capability and re-estimated the neutron counting rate measured in the Field of View (FOV) of the LEND collimated detectors, and found it to be 1.070.1counts per second. We derived the spectral density of the neutron flux for various lunar regions using our comprehensive numerical model of orbital measurements. This model takes into account the location of the LEND instrument onboard LRO to calculate the surface leakage neutron flux and its propagation to the instrument detectors. Based on this we have determined the lunar neutron flux at the surface to be approx. 2 neutrons/ [sq cm/ sec] in the epithermal energy range, 0.4e V to 1keV. We have also found variations of the lunar neutron leakage flux with amplitude as large as a factor of two, by using multi-year observations to explore variations in the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) flux during the 23rd-24th solar cycles.

Litvak, M. L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Aerosol Meteorology of Maritime Continent for the 2012 7SEAS Southwest Monsoon Intensive Study - Part 2: Philippine Receptor Observations of Fine-Scale Aerosol Behavior

The largest 7 Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) operations period within the Maritime Continent (MC) occurred in the August-September 2012 biomass burning season. Data included were observations aboard the MY Vasco, dispatched to the Palawan Archipelago and Sulu Sea of the Philippines for September 2012. At these locations, the Vasco observed MC smoke and pollution entering the southwest monsoon (SWM) monsoonal trough. Here we describe the research cruise findings and the finer-scale aerosol meteorology of this convectively active region. This 2012 cruise complemented a 2-week cruise in 2011 and was generally consistent with previous findings in terms of how smoke emission and transport related to monsoonal flows, tropical cyclones (TC), and the covariance between smoke transport events and the atmosphere's thermodynamic structure. Biomass burning plumes were usually mixed with significant amounts of anthropogenic pollution. Also key to aerosol behavior were squall lines and cold pools propagating across the South China Sea (SCS) and scavenging aerosol particles in their path. However, the 2012 cruise showed much higher modulation in aerosol frequency than its 2011 counterpart. Whereas in 2011 large synoptic-scale aerosol events transported high concentrations of smoke into the Philippines over days, in 2012 measured aerosol events exhibited a much shorter-term variation, sometimes only 312h. Strong monsoonal flow reversals were also experienced in 2012. Nucleation events in cleaner and polluted conditions, as well as in urban plumes, were observed. Perhaps most interestingly, several cases of squall lines preceding major aerosol events were observed, as opposed to 2011 observations where these lines largely scavenged aerosol particles from the marine boundary layer. Combined, these observations indicate pockets of high and low particle counts that are not uncommon in the region. These perturbations are difficult to observe by satellite and very difficult to model. Indeed, the Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) simulations captured longer period aerosol events quite well but largely failed to capture the timing of high-frequency phenomena. Ultimately, the research findings of these cruises demonstrate the real world challenges of satellite-based missions, significant aerosol life cycle questions such as those the future Aerosol/Clouds/Ecosystems (ACE) will investigate, and the importance of small-scale phenomena such as sea breezes, squall lines, and nucleation events embedded within SWM patterns in dominating aerosol life cycle and potential relationships to clouds.

Reid, Jeffrey S.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk From Reentering Space Objects

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the Earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Ostrom, Chris L.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk from Reentering Space Objects

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination, and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Ostrom, C.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Urban Air Quality Management at Low-Cost Using Micro Air Sensors: A Case Study From Accra, Ghana

Urban air quality management is dependent on the availability of local air pollution data. In many major urban centers of Africa, there is limited to non-existent information on air quality. This is gradually changing in part due to the increasing use of micro air sensors which have the potential to enable the generation of ground-based air quality data at fine scales for understanding local emission trends. Regional literature on the application of the high-resolution data for emission source identification in this region is limited. In this study a micro air sensor was co-located at the Physics Department, University of Ghana with a reference grade instrument to evaluate its performance for estimating PM2.5 pollution accurately at fine scales and the value of this data in identification of local sources and their behavior over time. For this study 15 weeks of data at hourly resolution with approximately 2500 data pairs are generated and analyzed (June 01, 2023, to September 15, 2023). For this time period a coefficient of determination (r 2 ) of 0.83 was generated with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 5.44 μgm -3 between the pre local calibration micro air sensor (i.e. out of box) and the reference-grade instrument. Following currently accepted best practice methods (see e.g., PAS4023) a domain specific (i.e. local) calibration factor was generated using a multi-linear regression model and when this factor is applied to the micro air sensor data, a reduction i.e., improvement in MAE to 1.43 μgm -3 was found. Daily variation was calculated, a receptor model was applied, and time series plots as a function of wind direction were generated, including PM2.5/PM10 ratio scatter and count plots to explore the utility of this observational approach for local source identification. The 3 data sets were compared (out of box, domain calibrated and reference-grade) and it was found that although there were variations in the data reported, source areas highlighted based on these data were similar, with input from local sources such as traffic emissions and biomass burning. As the temporal resolution of observational data associated with these micro air sensors is higher than for reference grade instruments (primarily due to costs and logistics limitations), they have the potential to provide insight into the complex, often hyper localized sources associated with urban areas, such as those found in major African cities.

Source apportionment↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Introduction to the JPSS-2 Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) Government Calibration Data Book (GCDB)

The third Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) is an instrument onboard the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), JPSS-2 (renamed NOAA-21 in orbit) mission. This report is to introduce the JPSS-2 Government Calibration Data Book (J2 GCDB) for ATMS, SN 304. This J2 GCDB document contains key information generated during the calibration testing campaign that is driving parameters for radiometric performance. This document also contains supporting data that augments the calibration results. The values in this document are utilized by ATMS’s calibration packet which is, in turn, an integral component in the interpretation of science data. The calibration data in this report was collected from tests such as shelf-level testing, antenna testing, instrument thermal vacuum (TVAC) testing; satellite TVAC testing; and JPSS-2 post-launch tests. JPSS-2 was launched on November 10, 2022. In the subsequent years, the Government will release an ATMS GCDB for each JPSS mission. We expect that all public users can download these ATMS GCDBs from the NOAA operational Integrated Calibration and Validation System (ICVS) website, see more discussions below. The goal of this GCDB is to demonstrate how to characterize ATMS measurements using JPSS-2 ATMS on-orbit operational data and to provide relevant explanations. This document serves as a primary public domain reference for calibrating operational ATMS Raw Data Records (RDR) science data, as used in the current operational Interface Data Processing Segment (IDPS) system. This same RDR science data is distributed through direct broadcast (DB) to DB users for use in their ground processing systems. This J2 GCDB provides the results of the ATMS system radiometric calibration, the antenna flat reflector emissivity [1], the antenna pattern measurements, the antenna pattern corrected brightness temperature [2], the brightness temperature of the lunar disk [3], Lunar Intrusion (LI) correction algorithm [4], receiver spectral parameters, and mechanical alignment on-orbit pointing results, and the striping effect appeared significantly in S-NPP on-orbit radiance data when the data are compared to the Radiative Transfer Model (RTM) simulation in numerical weather prediction (NWP) system [5]. It also provides the parameters required for conversion of telemetry counts to engineering units, for radiometric calibration, and for antenna beam geo-location. Moreover, it provides JPSS-2 ATMS Spectral Response Functions data, some additional information related to ATMS on-orbit performance, on-orbit lunar intrusion correction parameters and Earth contamination bias, and on how to derive ATMS RDR, antenna Temperature Data Records (TDR), and Sensor Data Records (SDR). Furthermore, an introduction of NOAA operational Integrated Calibration and Validation System (ICVS) website and services is added in this J2 GCDB. This ICVS hosts a long-term monitoring system which allows to visualization and comparison of data from JPSS missions, NOAA legacy Polar Operational Environmental Satellites (POES), and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). From NOAA Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship System (CLASS), the public users can download all JPSS ATMS data products for all JPSS missions.

Microwave Sounder↗
DOE OSTI2014

Physics-based, Bayesian sequential detection method and system for radioactive contraband

A distributed sequential method and system for detecting and identifying radioactive contraband from highly uncertain (noisy) low-count, radionuclide measurements, i.e. an event mode sequence (EMS), using a statistical approach based on Bayesian inference and physics-model-based signal processing based on the representation of a radionuclide as a monoenergetic decomposition of monoenergetic sources. For a given photon event of the EMS, the appropriate monoenergy processing channel is determined using a confidence interval condition-based discriminator for the energy amplitude and interarrival time and parameter estimates are used to update a measured probability density function estimate for a target radionuclide. A sequential likelihood ratio test is then used to determine one of two threshold conditions signifying that the EMS is either identified as the target radionuclide or not, and if not, then repeating the process for the next sequential photon event of the EMS until one of the two threshold conditions is satisfied.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2017

Evaluating the Practicability of Multiphase CFD for BWR Fuel Assembly Analysis

Multiphase computational fluid dynamics (M-CFD) models of a boiling water reactor (BWR) fuel assembly have been generated in the commercial CFD code, STAR-CCM+ Ver.11.04.010-R8. The Eulerian multiphase approach was employed, in combination with a baseline ‘Zero Closure model’ for two-phase flow boiling, applicable to high void fraction regimes. The capability and practicability of MCFD for BWR fuel assembly were evaluated against the international OECD/NRC BWR Full-size Finemesh Bundle Test (BFBT) benchmark data. The benchmark selected, BFBT-4101-61, is a steady-state full power case, with high void fraction conditions. Geometrical modeling and mesh construction of BWR assemblies introduce challenges in generating high quality computational meshes, while retaining a low cell count to allow acceptable runtimes. In order to evaluate the scalability of the CFD code, parallel CFD simulations were carried out with the High Performance Computing (HPC) system of the Idaho National Laboratory. M-CFD results display good agreement with the experimental data for both local void fraction distribution and exit quality. The parallel speedup factor is linearly proportional to the number of processors up to 500 cores, and retains over 92% efficiency with 1000 cores. The execution time of the simulation decreased exponentially with increasing number of processors while the cost of the simulation increased linearly. The proposed baseline closure, in combination with the parallel performance of the STAR-CCM+ code demonstrated promising capabilities for analyzing BWR fuel assemblies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Detection Of Special Nuclear Materials Tagged Neutrons

In order to detect Special Nuclear Materials (SNM) in unattended luggage or cargo containers in the field of homeland security, fissions are induced by 14 MeV neutrons produced by an associated particle DT neutron generator, and prompt fission particles correlated with tagged neutron are detected by plastic scintillators. SMN produce high multiplicity events due to induced fissions, whereas nonnuclear materials produce low multiplicity events due to cross-talk, (n,2n) or (n,n'γ) reactions. The data acquisition electronics is made of compact FPGA boards. The coincidence window is triggered by the alpha particle detection, allowing to tag the emission date and direction of the 14 MeV interrogating neutron. The first part of the paper presents experiment vs. calculation comparisons to validate MCNP-PoliMi simulations and the post-processing tools developed with the data analysis framework ROOT. Measurements have been performed using different targets (iron, lead, graphite), first with small plastic scintillators (10 x 10 x 10 cm{sup 3}) and then with large detectors (10 x 10 x 100 cm{sup 3}) to demonstrate that nuclear materials can be differentiated from nonnuclear dense materials (iron, lead) in iron and wood matrixes. A special attention is paid on SNM detection in abandoned luggage. In the second part of the paper, the performances of a cargo container inspection system are studied by numerical simulation, following previous work reported in. Detectors dimensions and shielding against the neutron generator background are optimized for container inspection. Events not correlated to an alpha particle (uncorrelated background), counting statistics, time and energy resolutions of the data acquisition system are all taken into account in a realistic numerical model. The impact of the container matrix (iron, ceramic, wood) has been investigated by studying the system capability to detect a few kilograms of SNM in different positions in the cargo container, within 10 min acquisitions. (authors)

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Challenges and Practical Solutions for Conducting Structural MARSSIM Surveys in Elevated Radon Environments - 20413

The Multi-Agency Radiation Survey and Site Investigation Manual (MARSSIM) [1] provides comprehensive guidance for the development and implementation of radiological surveys conducted to demonstrate compliance with a dose- or risk-based cleanup goal during final status survey. The MARSSIM methodology follows an integrated strategy combining direct measurements and sampling to assess uniform residual contamination, and scanning surveys to identify localized areas of elevated activity. Building surveys assessing residual surface contamination present unique challenges from reliance on field measurements that may be subject to less than ideal environmental conditions. Additionally, limited characterization and excessive conservatism incorporated into the conceptual site model may result in derived concentration guideline levels (DCGL) and, as a consequence of relatively inefficient field instrumentation, corresponding attributable count rates generally comparable to background. The presence of elevated ambient radon concentrations and associated progeny deposition both exacerbate these intrinsic survey challenges and introduce a series of technical, logistic, and administrative obstacles that can wreak havoc on the statistical legitimacy of each component of the MARSSIM process. Short-lived radon progeny including polonium-218, lead-214, bismuth-214, and polonium-214 produce excessive alpha and beta radiation that may decrease instrument sensitivity through an increase in background count rates, and, at worst, may result in incorrect survey unit failure through the simulation of residual surface activity. Aside from the obvious solution of exhaustive radon mitigation, the primary objectives are to distinguish between radon progeny deposition and actual surface activity, and collect sufficient defensible data. The following is a technical discussion of the consequences of performing building MARSSIM surveys in the presence of elevated ambient radon atmospheres, conceptual examples, and an overview of practical strategies to minimize the effects of radon interference while collecting sufficient defensible data to complete the survey. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating proxies for the drivers of natural gas productivity using machine-learning models

We report the extensive development of unconventional reservoirs using horizontal drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing has generated large volumes of reservoir characterization and production data. The analysis of this abundant data using statistical methods and advanced machine-learning (ML) techniques can provide data-driven insights into well performance. Most predictive modeling studies have focused on the impact that different well completion and stimulation strategies have on well production but have not fully exploited the available in situ rock property data to determine its role in reservoir productivity. We have used machine-learning techniques to rank rock mechanical properties, microseismic attributes, and stimulation parameters in the order of their significance for predicting natural gas production from an unconventional reservoir. The data for this study came from a hydraulically fractured well in the Marcellus Shale in Monongalia County, West Virginia. The data classes included measurements aggregated by well completion stage that included (1) gas production, (2) well-log-derived measurements including bulk density, elastic moduli, shear impedance, compressional impedance, brittleness, and gamma measurements, (3) microseismic attributes, (4) long-period long-duration (LPLD) event counts, (5) fracture counts, and (6) stimulation parameters that included the fluid injection volume and average pumping pressure. To identify observable proxies for the drivers of gas production, we evaluated five commonly used ML approaches including multivariate adaptive regression spline, Gaussian mixture model, random forest, gradient boosting, and neural network. We selected five variables including LPLD event count, seismogenic b-value, hydraulic diffusivity, cumulative moment, and fluid volume as the features most likely to impact gas productivity at the stage level in the study area. The data-driven selection of these parameters for their importance in determining gas production can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs. Plain language summary: We use machine-learning methods and data-driven selection of reservoir parameters to rank and better understand their importance in determining gas production, which can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Diagnosing United States hurricane landfall risk: An alternative to count-based methodologies: Diagnosing U.S. Hurricane Landfall Risk

Assessing hurricane landfall risk is of immense public utility, yet extant methods of diagnosing annual tropical cyclone (TC) activity demonstrate no skill in diagnosing U.S. hurricane landfalls. Atlantic TC count itself has limited skill, explaining less than 20% of interannual variance in landfall incidence. Using extended landfall activity and reanalysis data sets, we employed empirical Poisson modeling to produce a landfall diagnostic index (LDI), incorporating spatially and temporally averaged upper level divergence, relative sea surface temperature, meridional wind, and zonal shear vorticity. LDI captures 31% of interannual variability of U.S. hurricane landfalls and offers physical insight into why indices that successfully capture TC activity fail to diagnose landfalls: there is inherent tension between conditions likely to steer hurricanes toward the U.S. and conditions favorable for TC development. Given this tension, attempting to diagnose, predict, or understand TC count is inadequate for quantifying societal impacts due to landfalling hurricanes.

Geology↗