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Intelligent Process Visualization through Nuclear Operation Process Modeling, Reasoning, and Object Detection from Field Videos (Final Report)

This report is a deliverable for the “Final Report” task of DOE NEET Project 19-16790, "Context-Aware Safety Information Display for Nuclear Field Workers." This project's overall goal is to test the hypothesis that integrating computer vision and process reasoning methods will enable proactive visualization of the safe operation and maintenance processes of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) for field workers. Augmented Reality (AR) glasses adopting such proactive safety information visualization techniques can significantly increase personnel safety and reduce the NPP’s operating costs. The current practice of monitoring NPPs requires workers to switch between digital models, data, and physical workspaces in identifying relevant but potentially occluded objects and in assessing the risks of operation and maintenance processes. On the other hand, frequently changed field conditions require field workers to report to supervisors for real-time guidance. Such guidance is essential to ensure that changing conditions will not invalidate or endanger the work order and other ongoing processes that may jeopardize NPP operations. Additionally, incorrect recognition of equipment objects can result in communication errors and safety problems. AR techniques can assist engineers in viewing the physical workspaces with objects labeled with detailed operation procedures and safety reminders during field operations. The project team developed an “Intelligent Context-Aware Safety Information Display” (ICAD) for supporting Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) field workers in achieving safe and efficient execution of a series of operational tasks in uncertain and changing workspaces of an NPP. Before designing the ICAD-AR prototype, the project team synthesized NPP operational knowledge models through literature review studies, surveys, interviews with domain experts, and knowledge modeling. The project team conducted an extensive study of the operational procedures of various NPPs, and digital technologies that can support the safe and efficient execution of those procedures in different NPP operational contexts. This literature review helped the project team conduct surveys and interviews with nuclear engineers and field workers to identify three categories of information. The NPP knowledge modeling efforts reveal that the three categories of information identified have different levels of importance in a typical procedure of carrying out a series of tasks to achieve a specific NPP operation goal (e.g., shutdown, mode changes). These three categories of information include 1) Workspace dynamics – the changing spatial arrangements of workspaces, tools, protection equipment, and supporting materials, 2) Workflow prognostics – the dynamic dependencies between different parts of an NPP that functionally support and influence each other in terms of safety and efficiency, and 3) Hazards – objects and spaces that contain hazardous materials or physical conditions that can pose risks to workers or mechanical systems. The project team has profiled the importance levels of these categories of information into a knowledge model. This knowledge model specifies what types of information are more critical for a given task in a given workspace so that computers can automatically identify critical objects and sensors in a scene for delivering context-ware safety information to field workers through AR devices. Significant research development of this project results in technical research outcomes and a prototyping system that illustrates the technical feasibility of establishing an ICAD-AR system supporting the proactive safety information display for nuclear field workers. This final report summarizes the project team’s technological achievements in the past three years. Overall, the project team completed the development and integration of five techniques into a prototype ICAD Augmented Reality (ICAD-AR) system and demonstrated the developed system’s real-time execution in a mechanical room. The project team completed the analysis of using this prototype in other types of workspaces based on 3D image data and digital design models collected from two additional workspaces (a water treatment plant and a flow loop training facility). The integrated techniques include 1) Natural Language Processing (NLP) algorithms supporting the generation and updates of nuclear fieldwork process models based on text analysis of work packages and operation manuals; 2) sensor log analysis for predicting control actions in given sensor reading contexts; 3) computer vision algorithms for automatic localization and navigation of workers; 4) object detection algorithms for identifying task-related objects and correlated sensors for safety checking; 5) AR technique as a platform for supporting the integration. The testing results of these five techniques have shown that 1) the sensor log analysis model can predict the next control action with an accuracy of 0.883; 2) the trained natural language processing model can extract more than 80% of the critical information from paper-based procedures (PBPs); 3) the navigation algorithm with the integration of Visual Inertial Odometry (VIO) and Non-Recursive Bayesian Filter methods make operator’s trajectory estimation resilient to drift error; 4) the computer vision algorithm can detect task-specific and safety-critical objects with an average accuracy of 95.3%. The project team used work procedures collected from a flow loop training facility and two datasets collected from two mechanical rooms simulating the workspaces of NPPs to demonstrate the technical capabilities of the developed ICAD-AR prototype. The demonstration validated the technical feasibility of establishing the ICAD-AR system for nuclear field workers and identified the challenges in 1) automatic text analysis of work packages; 2) use of limited samples of sensor logs for predicting the proper timings of control actions; 3) reliably tracking workers and their task progress in mechanical rooms with many similar objects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Linking hydraulic traits to tropical forest function in a size-structured and trait-driven model (TFS v.1-Hydro)

Abstract. Forest ecosystem models based on heuristic water stress functions poorly predict tropical forest response to drought partly because they do not capture the diversity of hydraulic traits (including variation in tree size) observed in tropical forests. We developed a continuous porous media approach to modeling plant hydraulics in which all parameters of the constitutive equations are biologically interpretable and measurable plant hydraulic traits (e.g., turgor loss point πtlp, bulk elastic modulus ε, hydraulic capacitance Cft, xylem hydraulic conductivity ks,max, water potential at 50 % loss of conductivity for both xylem (P50,x) and stomata (P50,gs), and the leaf : sapwood area ratio Al : As). We embedded this plant hydraulics model within a trait forest simulator (TFS) that models light environments of individual trees and their upper boundary conditions (transpiration), as well as providing a means for parameterizing variation in hydraulic traits among individuals. We synthesized literature and existing databases to parameterize all hydraulic traits as a function of stem and leaf traits, including wood density (WD), leaf mass per area (LMA), and photosynthetic capacity (Amax), and evaluated the coupled model (called TFS v.1-Hydro) predictions, against observed diurnal and seasonal variability in stem and leaf water potential as well as stand-scaled sap flux. Our hydraulic trait synthesis revealed coordination among leaf and xylem hydraulic traits and statistically significant relationships of most hydraulic traits with more easily measured plant traits. Using the most informative empirical trait–trait relationships derived from this synthesis, TFS v.1-Hydro successfully captured individual variation in leaf and stem water potential due to increasing tree size and light environment, with model representation of hydraulic architecture and plant traits exerting primary and secondary controls, respectively, on the fidelity of model predictions. The plant hydraulics model made substantial improvements to simulations of total ecosystem transpiration. Remaining uncertainties and limitations of the trait paradigm for plant hydraulics modeling are highlighted.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Control over Banded Morphologies and Circular Dichroism in Chiral Halide Perovskites

Chiral halide perovskites (c-HPs) merge the chirality of organic cations with the semiconducting properties of metal halide frameworks, creating a family of chiral semiconductors with tunable chiroptoelectronic behavior. Here, we describe the impact of periodic banded morphologies of textured c-HP ( R/S -NEA) 2 PbBr 4 films (NEA = 1- (1-naphthyl)ethylammonium) on their chiroptical behavior. Due to the interplay between the crystalline and glassy phases, the c-HP film growth is driven by rhythmic precipitation, producing a distinctive controllable radial banded pattern with the ( R/S -NEA) 2 PbBr 4 inorganic planes oriented parallel to the substrate. The banded morphology can be controlled, as evidenced by the growth temperature dictating the ridge-to-ridge spacing as well as the density of banded regions. The resulting circular dichroism (CD) spectral shape, intensity, and polarity vary in a seemingly random manner across processing conditions. However, these spectral features can be explained by considering key features of the banded morphology, such as refraction of the incident light due to surface morphology, birefringence, and stacked, rotated crystallites. These effects cannot be canceled by averaging front and back CD spectra of c-HP films, and our model incorporating these effects reproduces all observed CD spectra remarkably well. The control over the c-HP morphology and prediction capabilities of our CD modeling leads to further understanding of this class of semiconductors and the possibility of exploiting structural features for light polarization control akin to enhanced metamaterials.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Navier-Stokes calculations and turbulence modeling in the trailing edge region of a circulation control airfoil

The accurate prediction of turbulent flows over curved surfaces in general and over the trailing edge region of circulation control airfoils in particular requires the coupled efforts of turbulence modelers, numerical analysts and experimentalists. The purpose of the research program in this area is described. Then, the influence on turbulence modeling of the flow characteristics over a typical circulation control wing is discussed. Next, the scope of this effort to study turbulence in the trailing edge region of a circulation control airfoil is presented. This is followed by a brief overview of the computation scheme, including the grid, governing equations, numerical method, boundary conditions and turbulence models applied to date. Then, examples of applications of two algebraic eddy viscosity models to the trailing edge region of a circulation control airfoil is presented. The results from the calculations is summarized, and conclusions drawn based on examples. Finally, the future directions of the program is outlined.

Viegas, John R.↗

Large Divergence of Projected High Latitude Vegetation Composition and Productivity Due To Functional Trait Uncertainty

Abstract Vegetation distribution and composition are expected to change in northern high latitudes under rapid warming, which regulates ecosystem functions but remains challenging to predict. Vegetation change arises from the interplay of chronic climate trends such as warming and transient demographic processes of recruitment, growth, competition, and mortality. Most predictive models overlooked the role of demographic dynamics controlled by plant traits. Here, we simulate vegetation dynamics at the Kougarok Hillslope site in Alaska under historical and future climates using the E3SM Land Model coupled to the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Simulator (ELM‐FATES). To evaluate the roles of plant traits, we parameterize the model with 5,265 trait configurations representing diverse physiological and demographic strategies. Results show current modeled biomass, composition, and productivity are most sensitive to traits controlling photosynthetic capacity, carbon allocation, allometry, and phenology. Among all trait configurations, ∼5% reproduce in situ biomass and plant functional type (PFT) composition measured in 2016, that are indistinguishable from these two observed ecosystem states. Notably, these same trait configurations produce diverging biomass, composition, and productivity under future climate, where the uncertainty attributable to traits is twice the change attributable to climate change. The variation of projected productivity arises from emerging PFT composition under novel climate regimes, primarily explained by traits controlling cold‐induced mortality, recruitment, and allometry. Our findings highlight the importance and uncertainty of demographic dynamics and its interaction with climate change in shaping Arctic vegetation change. Improved model predictions will likely benefit from explicit consideration of vegetation demography and better constraints of critical traits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Actively controlled shaft seals for aerospace applications

Actively controlled mechanical seals have recently been developed for industrial use. This study investigates the feasibility of using such seals for aerospace applications. In a noncontacting mechanical seal, the film thickness depends on the geometry of the seal interface. The amount of coning, which is a measure of the radial convergence or divergence of the seal interface, has a primary effect on the film thickness. Active control of the film thickness is established by controlling the coning with a piezoelectric material. A mathematical model has been formulated to predict the performance of an actively controlled mechanical seal.

Salant, Richard F.↗

On-orbit experience with the HEAO attitude control subsystem

The first satellite (HEAO-1) in the High Energy Astronomy Observatory Program series was launched successfully on Aug. 12, 1977. To date it has completed over nine months of orbital operation in a science data gathering mode. During this period all attitude control modes have been exercised and all primary mission objectives have been achieved. This paper highlights the characteristics of the attitude control subsystem design and compares the predicted performance with the actual flight operations experience. Environmental disturbance modeling, component hardware/software characteristics, and overall attitude control performance are reviewed and are found to compare very well with the prelaunch analytical predictions. Brief comments are also included regarding the operations aspects of the attitude control subsystem. The experience in this regard demonstrates the effectiveness of the design flexibility afforded by the presence of a general purpose digital processor in the subsystem flight hardware implementation.

Hoffman, D. P.↗

Enhancing the physical modeling capability of open-source MFIX-DEM software for handling particle size polydispersity: Implementation and validation

Multiphase flows are ubiquitous in many industrial processes. The inherent coupling of different phases poses many unique challenges in predicting and effectively controlling these processes. Hence, computational modeling and simulation offers a viable approach to overcome these challenges. Here in this study, we present recent development efforts for enhancing the physical modeling capabilities of an open-source computational modeling tool for real life industrial multiphase processes by enabling particle-size polydispersity and demonstrating with an associated validation study. The proposed implementation was performed in MFIX open-source framework due to its unique feature of tightly integrated computational fluid dynamics and discrete element method solvers for simulating coupled continuum fluid and granular flows. We have implemented the polydispersity feature in a minimally invasive way and provided means to allow easy specification of an arbitrary particle size distribution function, which also enables the user to easily handle an arbitrary number of solid phases, each possessing a distinct arbitrary particle-size distribution. To establish the credibility of improvements, we have carried out a preliminary verification and validation (V&V) study for the polydispersity feature by employing a hopper bin discharge problem, which is frequently encountered in industrial applications. Specifically, two types of micro-glass beads with distinct size distributions are used to fill the hopper in two possible packing arrangements, i.e., well-mixed and layered configurations, with varying mass (particle number) ratios. The experimentally obtained discharge dynamics (e.g., normalized discharge mass fraction for one of the phases versus the overall discharge mass fraction) for different systems is found to be in excellent agreement with the corresponding simulation results.

42 ENGINEERING↗

SLUDGE BATCH 7B GLASS VARIABILITY STUDY

The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) is preparing to initiate processing Sludge Batch 7b (SB7b). In support of the upcoming processing, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) provided a recommendation to utilize Frits 418 with a 6% Na{sub 2}O addition (26 wt% Na{sub 2}O in sludge) and 702 with a 4% Na{sub 2}O addition (24 wt% Na{sub 2}O in sludge) to process SB7b. This recommendation was based on assessments of the compositional projections for SB7b available at the time from the Savannah River Remediation (SRR). To support qualification of SB7b, SRNL executed a variability study to assess the applicability of the current durability models for SB7b. The durability models were assessed over the expected composition range of SB7b, including potential caustic additions, combined with Frits 702 and 418 over a 32-40% waste loading (WL) range. Thirty four glasses were selected based on Frits 418 and 702 coupled with the sludge projections with an additional 4-6% Na{sub 2}O to reflect the potential caustic addition. Six of these glasses, based on average nominal sludge compositions including the appropriate caustic addition, were developed for both Frit 418 and Frit 702 at 32, 36 and 40% WL to provide coverage in the center of the anticipated SB7b glass region. All glasses were fabricated and characterized using chemical composition analysis, X-ray diffraction (XRD) and the Product Consistency Test (PCT). To comply with the DWPF Glass Product Control Program, a total of thirty four glasses were fabricated to assess the applicability of the current DWPF PCCS durability models. Based on the measured PCT response, all of the glasses were acceptable with respect to the Environmental Assessment (EA) benchmark glass regardless of thermal history. The NL[B] values of the SB7b variability study glasses were less than 1.99 g/L as compared to 16.695 g/L for EA. A small number of the D-optimally selected 'outer layer' extreme vertices (EV) glasses were not predictable using the current Product Composition Control System (PCCS) models for durability, but were acceptable compared to the EA glass when tested. These glasses fell outside of the lower 95% confidence band, which demonstrates conservatism in the model. A few of the glasses fell outside of the upper 95% confidence band; however, these particular glasses have normalized release values that were much lower than the values of EA and should be of no practical concern. Per the requirements of the DWPF Glass Product Control Program, the PCCS durability models have been shown to be applicable to the SB7b sludge system with a range of Na{sub 2}O concentrations blended with Frits 418 or 702. PCT results from the glasses fabricated as part of the variability study were shown to be predictable by the current DWPF PCCS models and/or acceptable with respect to the EA benchmark glass regardless of thermal history or compositional view.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Occupancy-Based Controls for an All-Electric Residential Community in a Cold Climate

In residential buildings, rapid improvements in sensors, communication, and information technology have enabled occupancy-based building controls. These controls utilize occupancy information and modify the operation of the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system to minimize excess HVAC energy use, especially when the building is unoccupied. This reduces the total building energy consumption and utility bills while maintaining thermal comfort. In this paper, we present two novel occupancy-driven controls - reactive control and predictive control - and compare their performance. We model an all-electric residential community based on a 27- home community in Basalt, Colorado, in the United States. We simulated various scenarios, considering different temperature setback and control algorithms, to analyze the community-scale impact of these occupancy-based controls. The results show that total HVAC energy savings in a building ranges from 1%- 20% compared to the baseline scenario without occupancy-based controls. The energy-saving potential is highly correlated with the occupancy pattern and temperature setback in the building.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗

Occupancy-Based Controls for an All-Electric Residential Community in a Cold Climate: Preprint

In residential buildings, rapid improvements in sensors, communication, and information technology have enabled occupancy-based building controls. These controls utilize occupancy information and modify the operation of the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system to minimize excess HVAC energy use, especially when the building is unoccupied. This reduces the total building energy consumption and utility bills while maintaining thermal comfort. In this paper, we present two novel occupancy-driven controls - reactive control and predictive control - and compare their performance. We model an all-electric residential community based on a 27- home community in Basalt, Colorado, in the United States. We simulated various scenarios, considering different temperature setback and control algorithms, to analyze the community-scale impact of these occupancy-based controls. The results show that total HVAC energy savings in a building ranges from 1%- 20% compared to the baseline scenario without occupancy-based controls. The energy-saving potential is highly correlated with the occupancy pattern and temperature setback in the building.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗

Analysis and Ground Testing for Validation of the Inflatable Sunshield in Space (ISIS) Experiment

The Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST) design requires a large sunshield to protect the large aperture mirror and instrument module from constant solar exposure at its L2 orbit. The structural dynamics of the sunshield must be modeled in order to predict disturbances to the observatory attitude control system and gauge effects on the line of site jitter. Models of large, non-linear membrane systems are not well understood and have not been successfully demonstrated. To answer questions about sunshield dynamic behavior and demonstrate controlled deployment, the NGST project is flying a Pathfinder experiment, the Inflatable Sunshield in Space (ISIS). This paper discusses in detail the modeling and ground-testing efforts performed at the Goddard Space Flight Center to: validate analytical tools for characterizing the dynamic behavior of the deployed sunshield, qualify the experiment for the Space Shuttle, and verify the functionality of the system. Included in the discussion will be test parameters, test setups, problems encountered, and test results.

Lienard, Sebastien↗

Closed loop models for analyzing the effects of simulator characteristics

The optimal control model of the human operator is used to develop closed loop models for analyzing the effects of (digital) simulator characteristics on predicted performance and/or workload. Two approaches are considered: the first utilizes a continuous approximation to the discrete simulation in conjunction with the standard optimal control model; the second involves a more exact discrete description of the simulator in a closed loop multirate simulation in which the optimal control model simulates the pilot. Both models predict that simulator characteristics can have significant effects on performance and workload.

Baron, S.↗

Experimental Evaluation of Load Rejection Over-Voltage from Grid-Tied Solar Inverters

This paper investigates the impact of load rejection over-voltage (LRO) from commercially available grid-tied photovoltaic (PV) solar inverters. LRO can occur when a local feeder or breaker opens and the power output from a distributed energy resource exceeds the load power. Simplified models of current controlled inverters can over-predict over-voltage magnitudes, thus it is useful to quantify testing. The load rejection event was replicated using a hardware testbed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and a set of commercially available PV inverters was tested to quantify the impact of LRO for a range of generation-to-load ratios. The magnitude and duration of the over-voltage events are reported in this paper along with a discussion of characteristic inverter output behavior. The results for the inverters under test showed that maximum over-voltage magnitudes were less than 200 percent of nominal voltage, and much lower in many test cases. These research results are important because utilities that interconnect inverter-based DER need to understand their characteristics under abnormal grid conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Modeling pilot interaction with automated digital avionics systems: Guidance and control algorithms for contour and nap-of-the-Earth flight

A collection of technical papers are presented that cover modeling pilot interaction with automated digital avionics systems and guidance and control algorithms for contour and nap-of-the-earth flight. The titles of the papers presented are as follows: (1) Automation effects in a multiloop manual control system; (2) A qualitative model of human interaction with complex dynamic systems; (3) Generalized predictive control of dynamic systems; (4) An application of generalized predictive control to rotorcraft terrain-following flight; (5) Self-tuning generalized predictive control applied to terrain-following flight; and (6) Precise flight path control using a predictive algorithm.

Hess, Ronald A.↗

The residue-measure criterion for model reduction in the analysis of the NASA Space Shuttle's digital flight control system

A residue-measure criterion model reduction technique is applied to the vehicle dynamics model used in the design and analysis of the NASA Space Shuttle's digital flight control system. As implemented in this study the residue-measure technique involved an a priori residue calculation with control system biasing. The predictions of the reduced model are compared to vehicle level dynamic stability test data. These comparisons show an excellent correlation of the dominant spectral and response features between the model and test data. In addition, the application of the reduction technique to various Shuttle mission flight phases is demonstrated.

Gluch, D. P.↗

Research Needs and Impacts in Predictive Simulation for Internal Combustion Engines (PreSICE)

This report is based on a SC/EERE Workshop to Identify Research Needs and Impacts in Predictive Simulation for Internal Combustion Engines (PreSICE), held March 3, 2011, to determine strategic focus areas that will accelerate innovation in engine design to meet national goals in transportation efficiency. The U.S. has reached a pivotal moment when pressures of energy security, climate change, and economic competitiveness converge. Oil prices remain volatile and have exceeded $100 per barrel twice in five years. At these prices, the U.S. spends $1 billion per day on imported oil to meet our energy demands. Because the transportation sector accounts for two-thirds of our petroleum use, energy security is deeply entangled with our transportation needs. At the same time, transportation produces one-quarter of the nation’s carbon dioxide output. Increasing the efficiency of internal combustion engines is a technologically proven and cost-effective approach to dramatically improving the fuel economy of the nation’s fleet of vehicles in the near- to mid-term, with the corresponding benefits of reducing our dependence on foreign oil and reducing carbon emissions. Because of their relatively low cost, high performance, and ability to utilize renewable fuels, internal combustion engines—including those in hybrid vehicles—will continue to be critical to our transportation infrastructure for decades. Achievable advances in engine technology can improve the fuel economy of automobiles by over 50% and trucks by over 30%. Achieving these goals will require the transportation sector to compress its product development cycle for cleaner, more efficient engine technologies by 50% while simultaneously exploring innovative design space. Concurrently, fuels will also be evolving, adding another layer of complexity and further highlighting the need for efficient product development cycles. Current design processes, using “build and test” prototype engineering, will not suffice. Current market penetration of new engine technologies is simply too slow—it must be dramatically accelerated. These challenges present a unique opportunity to marshal U.S. leadership in science-based simulation to develop predictive computational design tools for use by the transportation industry. The use of predictive simulation tools for enhancing combustion engine performance will shrink engine development timescales, accelerate time to market, and reduce development costs, while ensuring the timely achievement of energy security and emissions targets and enhancing U.S. industrial competitiveness. In 2007 Cummins achieved a milestone in engine design by bringing a diesel engine to market solely with computer modeling and analysis tools. The only testing was after the fact to confirm performance. Cummins achieved a reduction in development time and cost. As important, they realized a more robust design, improved fuel economy, and met all environmental and customer constraints. This important first step demonstrates the potential for computational engine design. But, the daunting complexity of engine combustion and the revolutionary increases in efficiency needed require the development of simulation codes and computation platforms far more advanced than those available today. Based on these needs, a Workshop to Identify Research Needs and Impacts in Predictive Simulation for Internal Combustion Engines (PreSICE) convened over 60 U.S. leaders in the engine combustion field from industry, academia, and national laboratories to focus on two critical areas of advanced simulation, as identified by the U.S. automotive and engine industries. First, modern engines require precise control of the injection of a broad variety of fuels that is far more subtle than achievable to date and that can be obtained only through predictive modeling and simulation. Second, the simulation, understanding, and control of these stochastic in-cylinder combustion processes lie on the critical path to realizing more efficient engines with greater power density. Fuel sprays set the initial conditions for combustion in essentially all future transportation engines; yet today designers primarily use empirical methods that limit the efficiency achievable. Three primary spray topics were identified as focus areas in the workshop: The fuel delivery system, which includes fuel manifolds and internal injector flow, The multi-phase fuel–air mixing in the combustion chamber of the engine, and The heat transfer and fluid interactions with cylinder walls. Current understanding and modeling capability of stochastic processes in engines remains limited and prevents designers from achieving significantly higher fuel economy. To improve this situation, the workshop participants identified three focus areas for stochastic processes: Improve fundamental understanding that will help to establish and characterize the physical causes of stochastic events, Develop physics-based simulation models that are accurate and sensitive enough to capture performance-limiting variability, and Quantify and manage uncertainty in model parameters and boundary conditions. Improved models and understanding in these areas will allow designers to develop engines with reduced design margins and that operate reliably in more efficient regimes. All of these areas require improved basic understanding, high-fidelity model development, and rigorous model validation. These advances will greatly reduce the uncertainties in current models and improve understanding of sprays and fuel–air mixture preparation that limit the investigation and development of advanced combustion technologies. The two strategic focus areas have distinctive characteristics but are inherently coupled. Coordinated activities in basic experiments, fundamental simulations, and engineering-level model development and validation can be used to successfully address all of the topics identified in the PreSICE workshop. The outcome will be: New and deeper understanding of the relevant fundamental physical and chemical processes in advanced combustion technologies, Implementation of this understanding into models and simulation tools appropriate for both exploration and design, and Sufficient validation with uncertainty quantification to provide confidence in the simulation results. These outcomes will provide the design tools for industry to reduce development time by up to 30% and improve engine efficiencies by 30% to 50%. The improved efficiencies applied to the national mix of transportation applications have the potential to save over 5 million barrels of oil per day, a current cost savings of $500 million per day.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗