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Chronological evaluation of urban growth and area expansion in Aguascalientes, Mexico using remotely sensed and ancillary mapped data

The study describes some efforts to assist the mapping procedure of Mexican towns and cities by focusing on the analysis of urban changes that have occurred in the city of Aguascalientes. To evaluate urban growth trends in Aguascalientes, historic maps of land cover, aerial photography, and SPOT data were reviewed between the period of 1857 and 1988 to determine urban boundaries. Additional analyses focused on identifying the extent and pattern of growth in reference to urban development plans initiated in 1978, and on assessing the impact of relocating people and industry after the Mexico City earthquake. Results from the study indicate a steady growth in areal expansion and population in the Aguascalientes area between 1978 and 1988.

Falquier, Leticia G.↗

Ozone maxima over Southern Africa: A mid-latitude link

The relationship between patterns of total ozone and day-to-day weather was explored over South Africa for the period 1987 to 1988. Generally, there was a fairly poor relationship (variance less than 20 percent) between total ozone and the heights of the 100, 300 and 500 hPa geopotential heights at 5 South African stations. However, over a shorter period, October to December 1988, fluctuations in the height of the 300 hPa surface accounted for 53 percent of the variance in total ozone at Cape Town. High ozone amounts are associated with the lowering of the 300 hPa surface in the presence of an upper-air trough. The role of the mid-latitude westerly waves in this respect is discussed.

Barsby, Jane↗

Patches in the polar ionosphere: UT and seasonal dependence

The seasonal and Universal Time (UT) dependencies of patches in the polar ionosphere are simulated using the Utah State University time dependent ionospheric model (TDIM). Patch formation is achieved by changing the plasma convection pattern in response to temporal changes in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) B(sub y) component during periods of southwrd IMF. This mechanism redirects the plasma flow from the dayside high-density region, which is the source of the tongue of ionization (TOI) density feature, through the throat and leads to patches, rather than a continuous TOI. The model predicts that the patches are absent at winter solstice (northern hemisphere) between 0800 and 1200 UT and that they have their largest seasonal intensity at winter solstice between 2000 and 2400 UT. Between winter solstice and equinox, patches are strong and present all day. Patches are present in summer as well, although their intensity is only tens of percent above the background density. These winter-to-equinox findings are also shown to be consistent with observations. The model was also used to predict times at which patch observations could be performed to determine the contributions from other patch mechanisms. This observational window is +/- 20 days about winter solstice between 0800 and 1200 UT in the northern hemisphere. In this observational window the TOI is either absent or reduced to a very low density. Hence the time dependent electric field mechanism considered in this study does not produce patches, and if they are observed, then they must be due to some other mechanism.

Sojka, J. J.↗

Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model: Application for Understanding Preciptation Processes

The global hydrological cycle is central to climate system interactions and the key to understanding their behavior. Rainfall and its associated precipitation processes are a key link in the hydrologic cycle. Fresh water provided by tropical rainfall and its variability can exert a large impact upon the structure of the upper ocean layer. In addition, approximately two-thirds of the global rain falls in the Tropics, while the associated latent heat release accounts for about three-fourths of the total heat energy for the Earth's atmosphere. Precipitation from convective cloud systems comprises a large portion of tropical heating and rainfall. Furthermore, the vertical distribution of convective latent-heat releases modulates large-scale tropical circulations (e.g., the 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation), which, in turn, impacts midlatitude weather through teleconnection patterns such as those associated with El Nino. Shifts in these global circulations can result in prolonged periods of droughts and floods, thereby exerting a tremendous impact upon the biosphere and human habitation. And yet, monthly rainfall over the tropical oceans is still not known within a factor of two over large (5 degrees latitude by 5 degrees longitude) areas. Hence, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a joint U.S./Japan space project, can provide a more accurate measurement of rainfall as well as estimate the four-dimensional structure of diabatic heating over the global tropics. The distributions of rainfall and inferred heating can be used to advance our understanding of the global energy and water cycle. In addition, this information can be used for global circulation and climate models for testing and improving their parameterizations.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Enhancement of Cognitive Processing by Multiple Sclerosis Patients Using Liquid Cooling Technology: A Case Study

Cognitive dysfunction is a common symptom in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). This can have a significant impact on the quality of life of both the patient and of their primary care giver. This case study explores the possibility that liquid cooling therapy may be used to enhance the cognitive processing of MS patients in the same way that it provides temporary relief of some physical impairment. Two MS patients were presented a series of pattern discrimination tasks before and after being cooled with a liquid cooling garment for a one hour period. The subject whose ear temperature was reduced during cooling showed greater electroencephalographic (EEG) activity and scored much better on the task after cooling. The patient whose ear temperature was unaffected by cooling showed less EEG activity and degraded performance after the one hour cooling period.

Montgomery, Leslie D.↗

Evidence for Widespread Cooling in an Active Region Observed with the SDO Atmospheric Imaging Assembly

A well known behavior of EUV light curves of discrete coronal loops is that the peak intensities of cooler channels or spectral lines are reached at progressively later times. This time lag is understood to be the result of hot coronal loop plasma cooling through these lower respective temperatures. However, loops typically comprise only a minority of the total emission in active regions. Is this cooling pattern a common property of active region coronal plasma, or does it only occur in unique circumstances, locations, and times? The new SDO/AIA data provide a wonderful opportunity to answer this question systematically for an entire active region. We measure the time lag between pairs of SDO/AIA EUV channels using 24 hours of images of AR 11082 observed on 19 June 2010. We find that there is a time-lag signal consistent with cooling plasma, just as is usually found for loops, throughout the active region including the diffuse emission between loops for the entire 24 hour duration. The pattern persists consistently for all channel pairs and choice of window length within the 24 hour time period, giving us confidence that the plasma is cooling from temperatures of greater than 3 MK, and sometimes exceeding 7 MK, down to temperatures lower than approx. 0.8 MK. This suggests that the bulk of the emitting coronal plasma in this active region is not steady; rather, it is dynamic and constantly evolving. These measurements provide crucial constraints on any model which seeks to describe coronal heating.

Viall, Nicholeen M.↗

Hydraulic Diversity of Forests Regulates Ecosystem Resilience During Drought

Plants influence the atmosphere through fluxes of carbon, water and energy, and can intensify drought through land–atmosphere feedback effects. The diversity of plant functional traits in forests, especially physiological traits related to water (hydraulic) transport, may have a critical role in land–atmosphere feedback, particularly during drought. Here we combine 352 site-years of eddy covariance measurements from 40 forest sites, remote-sensing observations of plant water content and plant functional-trait data to test whether the diversity in plant traits affects the response of the ecosystem to drought. We find evidence that higher hydraulic diversity buffers variation in ecosystem flux during dry periods across temperate and boreal forests. Hydraulic traits were the predominant significant predictors of cross-site patterns in drought response. By contrast, standard leaf and wood traits, such as specific leaf area and wood density, had little explanatory power. Our results demonstrate that diversity in the hydraulic traits of trees mediates ecosystem resilience to drought and is likely to have an important role in future ecosystem–atmosphere feedback effects in a changing climate.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗

A simplified regression building thermal modelling method for detached two-floor house in U.S.

The residential building sector accounts for approximately 37% of total U.S. electricity consumption. Within the residential building sector, heating and cooling is the main target for peak load shifting/reduction since it is the largest contributor to peak demand. In fact, the flexibility of residential HVAC loads can provide continuous variation of demand to provide grid services by varying their demand over a baseline. The performance of HVAC load control to provide grid services relies heavily on the accuracy of indoor air temperature or cooling/heating demand predictions and therefore the quality of building model. Besides forward models, popular building models are data-driven models which can be broken down into two categories: gray-box model, e.g. Resistance-Capacitance (RC) model and black-box model. RC model, also called lumped capacitance or network model, which is constituted with electrical analogue pattern with resistance (R) and capacitance (C). In general, RC models require considerable computation burden and long periods of data to train limited number of model coefficients. Black-box models have gained increasing interest due to their capability in analyzing large-scale data and flexibility in practical applications. But, the data-mining based (machine learning algorithms/techniques based) models tend to have invisible model structures which poses a problem when trying to use the model for optimal control or model predictive control of the HVAC system. Hence, there is a continuing need for efficient online system identification techniques, which can provide explicit parameters for the model. Traditional regression models fit well for this specific purpose. This paper presents an innovative way to predict average indoor temperature in separate floors of typical detached residential house. A rolling horizon linear regression model, which includes online adaptive correction component, is proposed to predict the temperature difference between downstairs and upstairs. A RC model is used to predict the overall mean indoor air temperature. Since the adaptive algorithm needs to be implemented online, a less computation-demanding polynomial fitting algorithm is adopted. This kind of fitting problem can be cast as linear regression problem with multiple variables, parameters of which can be efficiently obtained by well-known gradient descent method.The validation is conducted by comparing the predicted results with the results from data-mining based models as well as measured data from a real typical detached two-floor house. The results show that the developed method has satisfactory performance in predicting the building indoor temperature in 1st and 2nd floors.

Cui, Borui↗

Global Precipitation Analysis Using Satellite Observations

Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) observations are reviewed in the context of weather and climate applications. All the data sets discussed are the result of mergers of information from multiple satellites and gauges, where available. The focus of the talk is on TRMM-based 3 hr. analyses that use TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I (and other satellites) and geosynchronous IR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, 3 hr. resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January 1998-present) at the end of 2002. A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 deg latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 deg N-50 deg S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions and in relating weather-scale patterns to climate-scale patterns. The 3-hourly analysis is placed in the context of two research products of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The first is the 23 year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis that is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant global trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the Goodyear data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the 23 year period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. Also shown is the GPCP daily, 1 deg latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present. Plans to incorporate the TRMM data and 3-hourly analysis into the GPCP products are outlined. The outcome should be an improved global analysis and climatology on monthly scales for the 23 year period and finer time scale analyses for more recent periods, including real-time 3-hourly (or finer) analyses over much of the globe.

Adler, Robert F.↗

Note on apparent systematic and periodic errors in Geosat orbits

Apparent errors in Geosat orbits are estimated directly from the measurements. There are technical difficulties in such estimates from quasi-periodically gapped data. The dominant orbit errors display a line spectrum, in which the once/orbit error peak is split in a complex way into a series of narrow lines, with other errors being present as well. The spatial pattern of the errors is not random, displaying differences between mean ascending and descending orbits which are coherent over thousands of kilometers. Orbit errors do not decorrelate within a few orbit periods.

Sirkes, Ziv↗

Magnetic devil's staircaselike behavior in quasiperiodic qubit lattices

The devil's staircase (DS) phenomenon is a fractal response of magnetization to external fields, traditionally observed in periodic ferromagnetic systems, where the commensurability between spin arrangements, lattice parameters, and external magnetic fields governs abrupt changes in magnetization. Its occurrence in aperiodic, fractal-type systems has remained largely unexplored, despite their natural compatibility with such phenomena. Using a quantum annealing device, we uncover a wealth of abrupt magnetic transitions between spin manifolds driven by increasing external magnetic fields within a simple yet effective Ising-model framework. In contrast to periodic systems, where DS arises from long-range competing interactions, our findings reveal that short-range, purely antiferromagnetic couplings in aperiodic geometries produce equally rich ground-state magnetization patterns. Here, we demonstrate that while magnetic textures are determined by the lattice size, their formation remains remarkably robust and independent of scale, with commensurability emerging locally. Our results challenge the prevailing view that DS behavior is limited to periodic systems and establish quasiperiodic geometries as a natural host for this phenomenon.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Local Thermal Conductivity Patterning in Rotating Lattice Crystals of Anisotropic Sb 2 S 3

The ability to control material heat transport properties over space and time can drive advanced functionalities in thermal management for electronics and system-on-chip, and enable thermal circuits. Despite the technological relevance, there are limited demonstrations of local thermal property control. Rotating lattice single (RLS) crystals—formed via laser-induced crystallization of an amorphous substrate—offer a novel avenue for local crystal engineering, unlocking opportunities for microscale property patterning. Here, thermal conductivity (𝜅) imaging is applied to RLS crystals of Sb2S3 to resolve microscale 𝜅 variations across patterned regions. Amorphous areas exhibit 𝜅 as low as 0.6 Wm −1 K −1 , while crystalline regions display periodic 𝜅 variations from 0.7 to over 2.5 Wm −1 K −1 . These variations correspond to changes in crystal orientation, revealing marked 𝜅 anisotropy. The crystal out-of-plane direction (c axis)—featuring van der Waals bonds—shows amorphous-like transport, whereas in-plane directions (a, b axes) exhibit 3.5x and 1.7x larger 𝜅, respectively. First-principles calculations, in excellent agreement with experiments, suggest that the in-plane anisotropy originates from expressed Sb lone pairs, which impart a corrugation along the b axis affecting bond stiffness and 𝜅. These findings demonstrate microscale control of thermal properties via laser-processed metastructures, with significant implications for next-generation thermal management.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with Short-Term Extratropical Climate Fluctuations

Two globally-complete, observation-only precipitation datasets have recently been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Both depend heavily on a variety of satellite input, as well as gauge data over land. The first, Version 2x79, provides monthly estimates on a 2.5 deg. x 2.5 deg. lat/long grid for the period 1979 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). The second, the One-Degree Daily (1DD), provides daily estimates on a 1 deg. x l deg. grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). Both are in beta test preparatory to release as official GPCP products. These datasets provide a unique perspective on the hydrological effects of the various atmospheric flow anomalies that have been identified by meteorologists. In this paper we discuss the regional precipitation effects that result from persistent extratropical flow anomalies. We will focus on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. Each characteristically becomes established on synoptic time scales, but then persists for periods that can exceed a month. The onset phase of each appears to have systematic mobile features, while the mature phase tend to be more stationary. Accordingly, composites of monthly data for outstanding positive and negative events (separately) contained in the 20-year record reveal the climatological structure of the precipitation during the mature phase. The climatological anomalies of the positive, negative, and (positive-negative) composites show the expected storm-track-related shifts in precipitation, and provide the advantage of putting the known precipitation effects over land in the context of the total pattern over land and ocean. As well, this global perspective points out some unexpected areas of correlation. Day-by-day composites of daily data anchored to the onset date demonstrate the systematic features during the onset. Although the 1DD has a fairly short record, some preliminary results are shown and compared to previous work with numerical weather prediction models.

Huffman, George J.↗

The tropopause cold trap in the Australian Monsoon during STEP/AMEX 1987

The relationship between deep convection and tropopause cold trap conditions is examined for the tropical northern Australia region during the 1986-87 summer monsoon season, emphasizing the Australia Monsoon Experiment (AMEX) period when the NASA Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange Project (STEP) was being conducted. The factors related to the spatial and temporal variability of the cold point potential temperature (CPPT) are investigated. A framework is developed for describing the relationships among surface average equivalent potential temperature in the surface layer (AEPTSL) the height of deep convection, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange. The time-mean pattern of convection, large-scale circulation, and surface AEPTSL in the Australian monsoon and the evolution of the convective environment during the monsoon period and the extended transition season which preceded it are described. The time-mean fields of cold point level variables are examined and the statistical relationships between mean CPPT, surface AEPTSL, and deep convection are described. Day-to-day variations of CPPT are examined in terms of these time mean relationships.

Selkirk, Henry B.↗

Patterns in interactions of variably acetylated xylans with hydrophobic cellulose surfaces

The recalcitrance of plant cell wall lignocellulosic biomass to deconstruction is a major hurdle to sustainable biofuel/bioproduct economy. A multitude of interactions stabilize lignocellulosic biomass structure. Among these, tight packing of hemicellulose-cellulose is partly responsible for biomass recalcitrance. Here, unrestrained molecular dynamics simulations are employed to understand the influence of the nature and pattern of naturally-occuring acetyl decorations of the xylan backbone on interactions with the (100) hydrophobic cellulose surface. Periodically O2-acetylated xylan (2AcX) assume twofold helical screw conformations that are stabilized by a combination of multiple hydrophobic contacts and hydrogen bonds with the hydrophobic cellulose surface. In contrast, acetylation at the O3 position in xylan obstructs interactions, thereby adopting threefold helical screw conformations that potentially preferably interact with lignin rather than cellulose. Fully acetylated xylan desorbs from the surface implying a minimum number of unsubstituted residues on the xylan backbone is required for interaction with the surface. Here, the substituted residues must form ~ 20% fewer contacts than the unsubstituted residues to sustain stable twofold helical screw xylan conformations on the cellulose surface. Thus, specific roles of macromolecular conformations of cellulose and hemicellulose in influencing the supramolecular interactions and function of plant cell walls have been determined.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Spherical grating based x-ray Talbot interferometry

Purpose: Grating interferometry is a state-of-the-art x-ray imaging approach, which can acquire information on x-ray attenuation, phase shift, and small-angle scattering simultaneously. Phase-contrast imaging and dark-field imaging are very sensitive to microstructural variation and offers superior contrast resolution for biological soft tissues. However, a common x-ray tube is a point-like source. As a result, the popular planar grating imaging configuration seriously restricts the flux of photons and decreases the visibility of signals, yielding a limited field of view. The purpose of this study is to extend the planar x-ray grating imaging theory and methods to a spherical grating scheme for a wider range of preclinical and clinical applications. Methods: A spherical grating matches the wave front of a point x-ray source very well, allowing the perpendicular incidence of x-rays on the grating to achieve a higher visibility over a larger field of view than the planer grating counterpart. A theoretical analysis of the Talbot effect for spherical grating imaging is proposed to establish a basic foundation for x-ray spherical gratings interferometry. An efficient method of spherical grating imaging is also presented to extract attenuation, differential phase, and dark-field images in the x-ray spherical grating interferometer. Results: Talbot self-imaging with spherical gratings is analyzed based on the Rayleigh–Sommerfeld diffraction formula, featuring a periodic angular distribution in a polar coordinate system. The Talbot distance is derived to reveal the Talbot self-imaging pattern. Numerical simulation results show the self-imaging phenomenon of a spherical grating interferometer, which is in agreement with the theoretical prediction. Conclusions: X-ray Talbot interferometry with spherical gratings has a significant practical promise. Relative to planar grating imaging, spherical grating based x-ray Talbot interferometry has a larger field of view and improves both signal visibility and dose utilization for pre-clinical and clinical applications.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Global Patterns of Crop Yield Stability Under Additional Nutrient and Water Inputs

Agricultural production must increase to feed a growing and wealthier population, as well as to satisfy increasing demands for biomaterials and biomass-based energy. At the same time, deforestation and land-use change need to be minimized in order to preserve biodiversity and maintain carbon stores in vegetation and soils. Consequently, agricultural land use needs to be intensified in order to increase food production per unit area of land. Here we use simulations of AgMIP's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) phase 1 to assess implications of input-driven intensification (water, nutrients) on crop yield and yield stability, which is an important aspect in food security. We find region- and crop-specific responses for the simulated period 1980+/-2009 with broadly increasing yield variability under additional nitrogen inputs and stabilizing yields under additional water inputs (irrigation), reflecting current patterns of water and nutrient limitation. The different models of the GGCMI ensemble show similar response patterns, but model differences warrant further research on management assumptions, such as variety selection and soil management, and inputs as well as on model implementation of different soil and plant processes, such as on heat stress, and parameters. Higher variability in crop productivity under higher fertilizer input will require adequate buffer mechanisms in trade and distribution/storage networks to avoid food price volatility.

Maize↗

Consumption Patterns of a Generalist Omnivore: Eastern Box Turtle Diets in the Long Island Pine Barrens

Eastern Box Turtles (Terrapene carolina) are diet generalists and as such are predicted to have diverse diets in which familiar, low-quality foods are eaten consistently at low levels, and high-quality foods are rare but eaten whenever available. Previous work showed that they feed opportunistically on seasonally available plants (shoots, leaves, flowers, and fruit), invertebrates, mushrooms, and occasionally carrion. We used fecal samples to test optimal foraging predictions relevant to diet generalists and also whether the Eastern Box Turtle diets varied seasonally in a northeastern U.S. pine-oak habitat. We found that in-depth prey species consumption patterns of six different individuals were similar to those of the sampled population overall. Leaf and stem material was consumed by 100% of the turtles in all months despite being lower-quality than other prey available. Invertebrates were consumed by at least 80% of turtles in every study period; Coleopterans were found more commonly than other invertebrates. Snails were not eaten by more than 20% of the turtles in any study period, and mushroom consumption varied from 31–75% of samples in different study periods. Monthly diet overlap was measured using both Pianka’s Index of Overlap (PIO) and the Morisita–Horn Index (MH). The PIO method indicated that the prey consumption patterns were broadly similar from June–October, while the M–H method showed that only the July vs. August comparison was highly similar. The turtle diets changed only slightly between seasons, and they conform to predictions of diet generalist models usually applied to mammals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗