Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Predictive science”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,027 records · Page 57

CMC Research at NASA Glenn in 2016: Recent Progress and Plans

As part of NASA's Aeronautical Sciences project, Glenn Research Center has developed advanced fiber and matrix constituents for a 2700 degrees Fahrenheit CMC (Ceramic Matrix Composite) for turbine engine applications. Fiber and matrix development and characterization will be reviewed. Resulting improvements in CMC mechanical properties and durability will be summarized. Plans for 2015 will be described, including development and validation of models predicting effects of the engine environment on durability of SiCSiC composites with Environmental Barrier Coatings (EBCs).

Additive Manufacturing↗

3D Mapping of the Neutral X-Ray Absorption in the Local Interstellar Medium: The Gaia and XMM-Newton Synergy

We present a three-dimensional map of the hydrogen density distribution in the Galactic interstellar medium. The hydrogen-equivalent column densities were obtained from the Exploring the X-ray Transient and variable Sky project (EXTRAS) which provides equivalent NH values from X-ray spectral fits of observations within the XMM-Newton Data Release. EXTRAS include multiple fits for each source, allowing an accurate determination of the equivalent column densities, which depends on the continuum modelling of the spectra. A cross-correlation between the EXTRAS catalogue and the first Gaia Data Release was performed in order to obtain accurate parallax and distance measurements. We use a Bayesian method explained in Rezaei Kh. et al. (2017) in order to predict the most probable distribution of the density at any arbitrary point, even for lines of sight along which there are no initial observation. The resulting map shows small-scale density structures which could not have been modelled by using analytic density profiles. In this paper, we present a proof of concept of the kind of science possible with the synergy of these catalogues. However, given the systematic uncertainties connected to the source identification and to the dependence of NH on the spectral model, the present maps should be considered qualitatively at this point.

Gatuzz, Efrain↗

Magnetars as Astrophysical Laboratories of Extreme Quantum Electrodynamics: The Case for a Compton Telescope

A next generation of Compton and pair telescopes that improve MeV-band detection sensitivity by more than a decade beyond current instrumental capabilities will open up new insights into a variety of astrophysical source classes. Among these are magnetars, the most highly magnetic of the neutron star zoo, which will serve as a prime science target for a new mission surveying the MeV window. This paper outlines the core questions pertaining to magnetars that can be addressed by such a technology. These range from global magnetar geometry and population trends, to incisive probes of hard X-ray emission locales, to providing cosmic laboratories for spectral and polarimetric testing of exotic predictions of QED, principally the prediction of the splitting of photons and magnetic pair creation. Such fundamental physics cannot yet be discerned in terrestrial experiments. State of the art modeling of the persistent hard X-ray tail emission in magnetars is presented to outline the case for powerful diagnostics using Compton polarimeters. The case highlights an inter-disciplinary opportunity to seed discovery at the interface between astronomy and physics.

Wadiasingh, Zorawar↗

Importance of Ice Nucleation and Precipitation on Climate With the Parameterization of Unified Microphysics Across Scales Version 1 (PUMASv1)

Cloud microphysics is critical for weather and climate prediction. In this work, we document updates and corrections to the cloud microphysical scheme used in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and other models. These updates include a new nomenclature for the scheme, now called Parameterization of Unified Microphysics Across Scales (PUMAS), and the ability to run the scheme on graphics processing units (GPUs). The main science changes include refactoring an ice number limiter and associated changes to ice nucleation, adding vapor deposition onto snow, and introducing an implicit numerical treatment for sedimentation. We also detail the improvements in computational performance that can be achieved with GPU acceleration. We then show the impact of these scheme changes on the (a) mean state climate, (b) cloud feedback response to warming, and (c) aerosol forcing. We find that corrections are needed to the immersion freezing parameterization and that ice nucleation has important impacts on climate. We also find that the revised scheme produces less cloud liquid and ice but that this can be adjusted by changing the loss process for cloud liquid (autoconversion). Furthermore, there are few discernible effects of the PUMAS changes on cloud feedbacks but some reductions in the magnitude of aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs). Small cloud feedback changes appear to be related to the implicit sedimentation scheme, with a number of factors affecting ACIs.

Clouds↗

AERACEPT (Aerosol Rapid Analysis Combined Entry Probe/sonde Technology): Enabling Technology for Planetary Atmospheric Science Probes

Aerosols –clouds, hazes, and dusts –are a key part of planetary mass and energy balance, but difficult to study remotely. Current technology limits in situ measurements to once-in-a-lifetime flagship missions, which is not enough to characterize such highly dynamic systems. AERACEPT (AErosol Rapid Analysis Combined Entry Probe/sonde Technology) is an early-stage technology allowing asingle aeroshell body toact as both anentry vehicle and aerosol-samplingpassivedescent sonde, using the aeroshell’sown velocityto drive aerosol capture and separationthrough a series of embedded inlets.It takes advantage ofrecently developed thermal protection materials (3D-CC and 3MDCP)in combination withheritage aerosol sampling technologies fromboth planetary and airborne science (high-speed inlets and particle separation). By eliminating the need for heat shield separation, deployable parachutes, ordescent control, AERACEPT reducesthe mass, volume, and complexity ofplanetary aerosol sampling. Verifying AERACEPT’s performance involves modeling interdependencies between the size and geometry of the sampling inlets, the material response of the hypersonic phase of entry, the thermal conditions throughout the probe’s descent, the subsonic flow and particle sampling efficiency, the needed amount of sample, andthe cadence at which the sample can be analyzed. AERACEPT’s current predictions, using the Nephele Venus cloud mission concept (sampling between 63km to 39km, all subsonic) indicates AERACEPT can obtain >20 μL of particle material (roughly 10x the limit of detection) from droplets larger than 0.2 μm, with sample heating limited to <15 K above ambient. Validation testing for the thermal material response model has recently been performed at the UIUC Plasmatron facility, and for the flow and particle capture models is planned for this fall at the Ames Fluid Mechanics Laboratory.

AERACEPT↗

A Novel Machine Learning-Based Gap-Filling of Fine-Resolution Remotely Sensed Snow Cover Fraction Data By Combining Downscaling and Regression

Satellite-based remotely sensed observations of snow cover fraction (SCF) can have data gaps in spatially distributed coverage from sensor and orbital limitations. We mitigate these limitations in the example fine-resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data by gap-filling using auxiliary 1-km datasets that either aid in downscaling from coarser-resolution (5 km) MODIS SCF wherever not fully covered by clouds, or else by themselves via regression wherever fully cloud covered. This study’s prototype predicts a 1-km version of the 500-m MOD10A1 SCF target. Due to noncollocatedness of spatial gaps even across input and auxiliary datasets, we consider a recent gap-agnostic advancement of partial convolution in computer vision for both training and predictive gap-filling. Partial convolution accommodates spatially consistent gaps across the input images, effectively implementing a two-dimensional masking. To overcome reduced usable data from noncollocated spatial gaps across inputs, we innovate a fully generalized three-dimensional masking in this partial convolution. This enables a valid output value at a pixel even if only a single valid input variable and its value exist in the neighborhood covered by the convolutional filter zone centered around that pixel. Thus, our gap-agnostic technique can use significantly more examples for training (∼67%) and prediction (∼100%), instead of only less than 10% for the previous partial convolution. We train an example simple three-layer legacy super-resolution convolutional neural network (SRCNN) to obtain downscaling and regression component performances that are better than baseline values of either climatology or MOD10C1 SCF as relevant. Our generalized partial convolution can enable multiple Earth science applications like downscaling, regression, classification, and segmentation that were hindered by data gaps.

Soni Yatheendradas↗

Drought Prediction for Socio-Cultural Stability Project

The primary objective of this project is to answer the question: "Can existing, linked infrastructures be used to predict the onset of drought months in advance?" Based on our work, the answer to this question is "yes" with the qualifiers that skill depends on both lead-time and location, and especially with the associated teleconnections (e.g., ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole) active in a given region season. As part of this work, we successfully developed a prototype drought early warning system based on existing/mature NASA Earth science components including the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5) forecasting model, the Land Information System (LIS) land data assimilation software framework, the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), remotely sensed terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and remotely sensed soil moisture products from the Aqua/Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - EOS (AMSR-E). We focused on a single drought year - 2011 - during which major agricultural droughts occurred with devastating impacts in the Texas-Mexico region of North America (TEXMEX) and the Horn of Africa (HOA). Our results demonstrate that GEOS-5 precipitation forecasts show skill globally at 1-month lead, and can show up to 3 months skill regionally in the TEXMEX and HOA areas. Our results also demonstrate that the CLSM soil moisture percentiles are a goof indicator of drought, as compared to the North American Drought Monitor of TEXMEX and a combination of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)'s Normalizing Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies over HOA. The data assimilation experiments produced mixed results. GRACE terrestrial water storage (TWS) assimilation was found to significantly improve soil moisture and evapotransportation, as well as drought monitoring via soil moisture percentiles, while AMSR-E soil moisture assimilation produced marginal benefits. We carried out 1-3 month lead-time forecast experiments using GEOS-5 forecasts as input to LIS/CLSM. Based on these forecast experiments, we find that the expected skill in GEOS-5 forecasts from 1-3 months is present in the soil moisture percentiles used to indicate drought. In the case of the HOA drought, the failure of the long rains in April appears in the February 1, March 1 and April 1 initialized forecasts, suggesting that for this case, drought forecasting would have provided some advance warning about the drought conditions observed in 2011. Three key recommendations for follow-up work include: (1) carry out a comprehensive analysis of droughts observed over the entire period of record for GEOS-5 forecasts; (2) continue to analyze the GEOS-5 forecasts in HOA stratifying by anomalies in long and short rains; and (3) continue to include GRACE TWS, Soil Moisture/Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and the upcoming NASA Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) soil moisture products in a routine activity building on this prototype to further quantify the benefits for drought assessment and prediction.

Peters-Lidard, Christa↗

Applications of wavelet-based compression to multidimensional Earth science data

A data compression algorithm involving vector quantization (VQ) and the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) is applied to two different types of multidimensional digital earth-science data. The algorithms (WVQ) is optimized for each particular application through an optimization procedure that assigns VQ parameters to the wavelet transform subbands subject to constraints on compression ratio and encoding complexity. Preliminary results of compressing global ocean model data generated on a Thinking Machines CM-200 supercomputer are presented. The WVQ scheme is used in both a predictive and nonpredictive mode. Parameters generated by the optimization algorithm are reported, as are signal-to-noise (SNR) measurements of actual quantized data. The problem of extrapolating hydrodynamic variables across the continental landmasses in order to compute the DWT on a rectangular grid is discussed. Results are also presented for compressing Landsat TM 7-band data using the WVQ scheme. The formulation of the optimization problem is presented along with SNR measurements of actual quantized data. Postprocessing applications are considered in which the seven spectral bands are clustered into 256 clusters using a k-means algorithm and analyzed using the Los Alamos multispectral data analysis program, SPECTRUM, both before and after being compressed using the WVQ program.

Bradley, Jonathan N.↗

Submillimeter, millimeter, and microwave spectral line catalogue, revision 3

A computer-accessible catalog of submillimeter, millimeter, and microwave spectral lines in the frequency range between 0 and 10,000 GHz (i.e., wavelengths longer than 30 micrometers) is described. The catalog can be used as a planning or as an aid in the identification and analysis of observed spectral lines. The information listed for each spectral line includes the frequency and its estimated error, the intensity, the lower state energy, and the quantum number assignment. This edition of the catalog has information on 206 atomic and molecular species and includes a total of 630,924 lines. The catalog was constructed by using theoretical least square fits of published spectral lines to accepted molecular models. The associated predictions and their estimated errors are based upon the resultant fitted parameters and their covariances. Future versions of this catalog will add more atoms and molecules and update the present listings as new data appear. The catalog is available as a magnetic data tape recorded in card images, with one card image per spectral line, from the National Space Science Data Center, located at Goddard Space Flight Center.

Pickett, H. M.↗

REE radiation fault model: a tool for organizing and communication radiation test data and construction COTS based spacebourne computing systems

The growth in data rates of instruments on future NASA spacecraft continues to outstrip the improvement in communications bandwidth and processing capabilities of radiation-hardened computers. Sophisticated autonomous operations strategies will further increase the processing workload. Given the reductions in spacecraft size and available power, standard radiation hardened computing systems alone will not be able to address the requirements of future missions. The REE project was intended to overcome this obstacle by developing a COTS- based supercomputer suitable for use as a science and autonomy data processor in most space environments. This development required a detailed knowledge of system behavior in the presence of Single Event Effect (SEE) induced faults so that mitigation strategies could be designed to recover system level reliability while maintaining the COTS throughput advantage. The REE project has developed a suite of tools and a methodology for predicting SEU induced transient fault rates in a range of natural space environments from ground-based radiation testing of component parts. In this paper we provide an overview of this methodology and tool set with a concentration on the radiation fault model and its use in the REE system development methodology. Using test data reported elsewhere in this and other conferences, we predict upset rates for a particular COTS single board computer configuration in several space environments.

Radiation Effects Modeling COTS computers REE SEU ↗

High-Performance, Radiation-Hardened Electronics for Space Environments

The Radiation Hardened Electronics for Space Environments (RHESE) project endeavors to advance the current state-of-the-art in high-performance, radiation-hardened electronics and processors, ensuring successful performance of space systems required to operate within extreme radiation and temperature environments. Because RHESE is a project within the Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP), RHESE's primary customers will be the human and robotic missions being developed by NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) in partial fulfillment of the Vision for Space Exploration. Benefits are also anticipated for NASA's science missions to planetary and deep-space destinations. As a technology development effort, RHESE provides a broad-scoped, full spectrum of approaches to environmentally harden space electronics, including new materials, advanced design processes, reconfigurable hardware techniques, and software modeling of the radiation environment. The RHESE sub-project tasks are: SelfReconfigurable Electronics for Extreme Environments, Radiation Effects Predictive Modeling, Radiation Hardened Memory, Single Event Effects (SEE) Immune Reconfigurable Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) (SIRF), Radiation Hardening by Software, Radiation Hardened High Performance Processors (HPP), Reconfigurable Computing, Low Temperature Tolerant MEMS by Design, and Silicon-Germanium (SiGe) Integrated Electronics for Extreme Environments. These nine sub-project tasks are managed by technical leads as located across five different NASA field centers, including Ames Research Center, Goddard Space Flight Center, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Langley Research Center, and Marshall Space Flight Center. The overall RHESE integrated project management responsibility resides with NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Initial technology development emphasis within RHESE focuses on the hardening of Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGA)s and Field Programmable Analog Arrays (FPAA)s for use in reconfigurable architectures. As these component/chip level technologies mature, the RHESE project emphasis shifts to focus on efforts encompassing total processor hardening techniques and board-level electronic reconfiguration techniques featuring spare and interface modularity. This phased approach to distributing emphasis between technology developments provides hardened FPGA/FPAAs for early mission infusion, then migrates to hardened, board-level, high speed processors with associated memory elements and high density storage for the longer duration missions encountered for Lunar Outpost and Mars Exploration occurring later in the Constellation schedule.

Keys, Andrew S.↗

Into the Eye

NASA's aeronautical research not only encompasses advancing aircraft technology and aviation safety for today and the future, but it also has a branch that deals with Airborne Science. This Airborne Science branch possesses unique airborne flight vehicles (manned and unmanned) whose sole purpose is to take scientists and their experiments anywhere in the world, into nearly any climatic condition, to gather the data they need for their research. This research spans such fields as; global warming, weather analysis, air and water pollution, mineral and archaeology search, earthquake damage and prediction, and yes, hurricanes. The data we obtain will hopefully, one day, allow us to better understand our planet, its natural forces and man's interaction with them.

Ewers, Richard G.↗

Thermal Testing and Model Correlation for Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter Instrument (ATLAS)

The Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) part of the Ice Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite 2 (ICESat-2) is an upcoming Earth Science mission focusing on the effects of climate change. The flight instrument passed all environmental testing at GSFC (Goddard Space Flight Center) and is now ready to be shipped to the spacecraft vendor for integration and testing. This topic covers the analysis leading up to the test setup for ATLAS thermal testing as well as model correlation to flight predictions. Test setup analysis section will include areas where ATLAS could not meet flight like conditions and what were the limitations. Model correlation section will walk through changes that had to be made to the thermal model in order to match test results. The correlated model will then be integrated with spacecraft model for on-orbit predictions.

Thermal↗

Topical: Boiling, Condensation and Two-Phase Flows in Microgravity

The white paper addresses both fundamental and technological questions in the science of phase-change fluid flows aimed at understanding thermal transport in flow boiling and condensation and the use of these processes in space and terrestrial thermal systems. While flow boiling and condensation are widely employed in Earth-based thermal equipment to reduce the cost, size, and power required to transfer heat, a lack of data and predictive models on the impact of gravity on these phenomena hinders the use of two-phase heat transport in a low-gravity environment. The white paper presents research tasks in long-duration microgravity recommended to expand our knowledge on phase-changing flows. Due to elimination of the masking gravity effects, the proposed research will provide a unique opportunity to bring new insights into the role of capillary and hydrodynamic forces in phase-changing flows. The potential impact of the proposed research ranges from the space power, thermal and cryogenic systems to various terrestrial applications in the petrochemical, pharmaceutical, biochemical, nuclear, and metallurgical industries.

Phase-change fluid flow↗

Cost estimation for unmanned lunar and planetary programs

A basic model is presented for estimating the cost of unmanned lunar and planetary programs. Cost data were collected and analyzed for eight lunar and planetary programs. Total cost was separated into the following components: labor, overhead, materials, and technical support. The study determined that direct labor cost of unmanned lunar and planetary programs comprises 30 percent of the total program cost. Twelve program categories were defined for modeling: six spacecraft subsystem categories (science, structure, propulsion, electrical power, communications, and guidance and integration, test and quality assurance, launch and flight operations, ground equipment, systems analysis and engineering, and program management). An analysis showed that on a percentage basis, direct labor cost and direct labor manhours compare on a one-to-one ratio. Therefore, direct labor hours is used as the parameter for predicting cost, with the advantage of eliminating the effect of inflation on the analysis.

Dunkin, J. H.↗

Final shuttle-derived atmospheric database: Development and results from thirty-two flights

The final Shuttle-derived atmospheric data base is presented. The relational data base is comprised of data from 32 Space Transportation System (STS) descent flights, to include available meteorology data taken in support of each flight. For the most part, the available data are restricted to the middle atmosphere. In situ accelerations, sensed by the tri-redundant Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) to an accuracy better than 1 mg, are combined with post-flight Best Estimate Trajectory (BET) information and predicted, flight-substantiated Orbiter aerodynamics to provide determinations up to altitudes of 95 km. In some instances, alternate accelerometry data with micro-g resolution were utilized to extend the data base well into the thermosphere. Though somewhat limited, the ensemble of flights permit a reasonable sampling of monthly, seasonal, and latitudinal variations which can be utilized for atmospheric science investigations and model evaluations and upgrades as appropriate. More significantly, the unparallel vertical resolution in the Shuttle-derived results indicate density shears normally associated with internal gravity waves or local atmospheric instabilities. Consequently, these atmospheres can also be used as stress-atmospheres for Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN and C) system development and analysis as part of any advanced space vehicle design activities.

Findlay, John T.↗

NASA Products to Enhance Energy Utility Load Forecasting

Existing energy load forecasting tools rely upon historical load and forecasted weather to predict load within energy company service areas. The shortcomings of load forecasts are often the result of weather forecasts that are not at a fine enough spatial or temporal resolution to capture local-scale weather events. This project aims to improve the performance of load forecasting tools through the integration of high-resolution, weather-related NASA Earth Science Data, such as temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. Three companies are participating in operational testing one natural gas company, and two electric providers. Operational results comparing load forecasts with and without NASA weather forecasts have been generated since March 2010. We have worked with end users at the three companies to refine selection of weather forecast information and optimize load forecast model performance. The project will conclude in 2012 with transitioning documented improvements from the inclusion of NASA forecasts for sustained use by energy utilities nationwide in a variety of load forecasting tools. In addition, Battelle has consulted with energy companies nationwide to document their information needs for long-term planning, in light of climate change and regulatory impacts.

Lough, G.↗

Applications of NASA and NOAA Satellite Observations by NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Response to Natural Disasters

NASA s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center supports the transition of unique NASA and NOAA research activities to the operational weather forecasting community. SPoRT emphasizes real-time analysis and prediction out to 48 hours. SPoRT partners with NOAA s National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and National Centers to improve current products, demonstrate future satellite capabilities and explore new data assimilation techniques. Recently, the SPoRT Center has been involved in several activities related to disaster response, in collaboration with NOAA s National Weather Service, NASA s Applied Sciences Disasters Program, and other partners.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗