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Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering

Devastating Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However their intensity and frequency in a warming world may rapidly increase by a factor of 2-7 for each degree of increase in mean global temperature. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulphate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane main development region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may be an effective method of controlling hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using 8 Earth System Model simulations of climate under the GeoMIP G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the RCP4.5 scenario. Global mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those in RCP4.5, but sulphate injection would have to double between 2020 and 2070 to balance RCP 4.5 to nearly 10 Tg SO2 yr-1, with consequent implications for damage to stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent Generalized Extreme Value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges from 1923 and observed temperatures. The numbers of storm surge events as big as the one that caused the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this is only marginally statistically significant. Furthermore, when sea level rise differences at 2070 between RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored in to coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5 year events and perhaps halved for 50 year surges.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

MO-FG-204-01: Improved Noise Suppression for Dual-Energy CT Through Entropy Minimization

Purpose: In dual energy CT (DECT), noise amplification during signal decomposition significantly limits the utility of basis material images. Since clinically relevant objects contain a limited number of materials, we propose to suppress noise for DECT based on image entropy minimization. An adaptive weighting scheme is employed during noise suppression to improve decomposition accuracy with limited effect on spatial resolution and image texture preservation. Methods: From decomposed images, we first generate a 2D plot of scattered data points, using basis material densities as coordinates. Data points representing the same material generate a highly asymmetric cluster. We orient an axis by minimizing the entropy in a 1D histogram of these points projected onto the axis. To suppress noise, we replace pixel values of decomposed images with center-of-mass values in the direction perpendicular to the optimal axis. To limit errors due to cluster overlap, we weight each data point’s contribution based on its high and low energy CT values and location within the image. The proposed method’s performance is assessed on physical phantom studies. Electron density is used as the quality metric for decomposition accuracy. Our results are compared to those without noise suppression and with a recently developed iterative method. Results: The proposed method reduces noise standard deviations of the decomposed images by at least one order of magnitude. On the Catphan phantom, this method greatly preserves the spatial resolution and texture of the CT images and limits induced error in measured electron density to below 1.2%. In the head phantom study, the proposed method performs the best in retaining fine, intricate structures. Conclusion: The entropy minimization based algorithm with adaptive weighting substantially reduces DECT noise while preserving image spatial resolution and texture. Future investigations will include extensive investigations on material decomposition accuracy that go beyond the current electron density calculations. This work was supported in part by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) under Grant Number R21 EB012700.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Understanding Processes Controlling the Temporal and Spatial Variations of PBL Structures Over the ARM SGP Site

The surface heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes are transferred to the atmosphere above through the planetary boundary layer (PBL), where vertical mixing due to turbulent eddies of different sizes plays critical roles. Therefore, reliably representing PBL processes in numerical models is critical for weather, climate, and air quality prediction. Currently, there are over ten PBL schemes that are selectable within the advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, indicative of the challenges in capturing the impacts of turbulence within the PBL in models. Further improvements in PBL parameterizations are needed for both weather and climate models, as emphasized in many recent national reports, but require an advanced understanding of the underlying boundary layer processes from observations. This project takes advantage of Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) investments in the atmospheric boundary layer observations and Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) simulations to characterize PBL structures, understand key physical processes controlling the mixed layer development, and to evaluate PBL parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TEAMER Technical Support for Optimal Control of an Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter (CRADA Final Report)

This project will focus on running experiments that evaluate the benefits of using model predictive control (MPC) to optimize power absorbed by a laboratory-scale oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC). MPC is a promising technique to optimize wave energy converter (WEC) behavior while applying system constraints that can help promote structural integrity and device survivability, but there are few studies that experimentally test this control scheme on WECs. Therefore, the Participant is proposing a series of tests that will assess the benefits of MPC experimentally in response to a variety of sea states. For these tests, the Participant will provide the OSWEC device and Data Acquisition (DAQ) system, and request support from the Contractor to use and operate the wave tank for experiments.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Stratiform clouds and their interaction with atmospheric motion

During 1989 and 1990, the researchers saw the publication of two papers and the submission of a third for review on work supported primarily by the previous contract, NAS8-36150; the delivery of an invited talk at the SIAM Conference on Dynamical Systems in Orlando, Florida; and the start of two new projects on the radiative effects of stratocumulus on the large-scale flow. The published papers discuss aspects of stratocumulus circulations (Laufersweiler and Shirer, 1989) and the Hadley to Rossby regime transition in rotating spherical systems (Higgins and Shirer, 1990). The submitted paper (Haack and Shirer, 1990) discusses a new nonlinear model of roll circulations that are forced both dynamically and thermally. The invited paper by H. N. Shirer and R. Wells presented an objective means for determining appropriate truncation levels for low-order models of flows involving two incommensurate periods; this work has application to the Hadley to Rossby transition problem in quasi-geostrophic flows (Moroz and Holmes, 1984). The new projects involve the development of a multi-layered quasi-geostrophic channel model for study of the modulation of the large-scale flow by stratocumulus clouds that typically develop off the coasts of continents. In this model the diabatic forcing in the lowest layer will change in response to the (parameterized) development of extensive fields of stratocumulus clouds. To guide creation of this parameterization scheme, researchers are producing climatologies of stratocumulus frequency and the authors correlate these frequencies with the phasing and amplitude of the large-scale flow pattern. Researchers discuss the above topics in greater detail.

Clark, John H. E.↗

HERAFitter: Open source QCD fit project

HERAFitter is an open-source package that provides a framework for the determination of the parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton and for many different kinds of analyses in Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD). It encodes results from a wide range of experimental measurements in lepton-proton deep inelastic scattering and proton-proton (proton-antiproton) collisions at hadron colliders. These are complemented with a variety of theoretical options for calculating PDF-dependent cross section predictions corresponding to the measurements. The framework covers a large number of the existing methods and schemes used for PDF determination. The data and theoretical predictions are brought together through numerous methodological options for carrying out PDF fits and plotting tools to help visualise the results. While primarily based on the approach of collinear factorisation, HERAFitter also provides facilities for fits of dipole models and transverse-momentum dependent PDFs. The package can be used to study the impact of new precise measurements from hadron colliders. This paper describes the general structure of HERAFitter and its wide choice of options.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Field evaluation of remote wind sensing technologies: Shore-based and buoy mounted LIDAR systems

In developing a national energy strategy, the United States has a number of objectives, including increasing economic growth, improving environmental quality, and enhancing national energy security. Wind power contributes to these objectives through the deployment of clean, affordable and reliable domestic energy. To achieve U.S. wind generation objectives, the Wind and Water Power Program within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) instituted the U.S. Offshore Wind: Removing Market Barriers Program in FY 2011. Accurate and comprehensive information on offshore wind resource characteristics across a range of spatial and temporal scales is one market barrier that needs to be addressed through advanced research in remote sensing technologies. There is a pressing need for reliable offshore wind-speed measurements to assess the availability of the potential wind energy resource in terms of power production and to identify any frequently occurring spatial variability in the offshore wind resource that may impact the operational reliability and lifetime of wind turbines and their components and to provide a verification program to validate the “bankability” of the output of these alternative technologies for use by finance institutions for the financing of offshore wind farm construction. The application of emerging remote sensing technologies is viewed as a means to cost-effectively meet the data needs of the offshore wind industry. In particular, scanning and buoy mounted LIDAR have been proposed as a means to obtain accurate offshore wind data at multiple locations without the high cost and regulatory hurdles associated with the construction of offshore meteorological towers. However; before these remote sensing technologies can be accepted the validity of the measured data must be evaluated to ensure their accuracy. The proposed research will establish a unique coastal ocean test-bed in the Mid-Atlantic for the evaluation of LIDAR-based wind measurement systems to validate the accuracy of remotely measured wind data in marine applications. Specifically, the test-bed will be utilized to systematically evaluate the capability of emerging scanning LIDAR and buoy mounted vertically profiling LIDAR by: (1) Evaluating a fixed scanning LIDAR against land-based 50 and 60 meter high meteorological masts fitted with research quality cup-vane and/or sonic anemometers; (2) Evaluating a buoy mounted vertically profiling LIDAR fixed on land and floating in a sheltered bay against a co-located 60 meter high meteorological mast fitted with a research quality cup-vane and/or sonic anemometers and the fixed scanning LIDAR; and (3) Offshore field evaluation of both LIDAR platforms through a comparison of the fixed scanning LIDAR data and data obtained by the buoy mounted LIDAR located 10 miles offshore. The proposed research will systematically validate Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) based wind measurement systems and assess the temporal and spatial variability of the offshore wind resource in the Mid-Atlantic east of New Jersey. The goal of the proposed project is to address the technical and commercial challenges of the offshore wind energy industry by validating and assessing cost-effective, over ocean wind resource characterization technologies. The objective is to systematically evaluate the capability of both scanning and vertically profiling LIDARs to accurately measure 3D wind fields through comparison with fixed met masts and intercomparison among LIDAR platforms. Once validated, data collected by both buoy mounted vertically profiling LIDARs and shore-based, pulsed horizontally scanning LIDARs can be used to accurately assess offshore wind resources and to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in the offshore wind fields. One of the fundamental research questions to be addressed in phase 1 is the assessment of various measurement and data processing schemes to retrieve accurate wind vectors in the marine environment over large sampling ranges (10 to 12 km) and varying atmospheric aerosol levels. Atmospheric conditions and aerosol content within the coastal ocean region of the Mid-Atlantic seaboard of the US can vary significantly over short time periods in response to frontal passages and extratropical and tropical low pressure system passage offshore of the coast. Since aerosols provide the scattering medium for the determination of LIDAR Doppler shifts in the atmosphere the accuracy and range of LIDAR derived velocity measurements as a function of variation in aerosol content in the marine environment is a key research question to be addressed. In phase 1, it is desired to capture as much variation in atmospheric conditions and aerosol content as possible. To this end, collocated measurements of LIDAR and standard anemometer wind fields will be captured by the project PIs over all four seasons and during specific events (e.g., coastal low pressure system passage) in year 1. Additionally, since the meteorological masts are permanent structures, additional events can be captured over the three year duration of the field research project. All research instruments are owned by Fishermen’s Energy and made available to the PIs though a lease agreement as part of the DOE grant. Energy Fishermen’s Energy will be responsible for the operation and maintenance of the scanning LIDAR and met mast anemometers. On a daily basis, environmental data and systems performance indicators will be transmitted from each measurement station to the Fishermen’s project team consisting of both in-house personnel and equipment manufacturer engineers. Data sets include compiled LIDAR files as well as data sets from ancillary sensors. Diagnostic parameters to be monitored include standard deviations of measured values, battery levels and charging systems output, and the operational status. Once data have been confirmed as complete and reliable, files will be transferred to the Garrad Hassan (a subcontractor to Fishermen’s Energy) for incorporation in to the validation database, which is accessible to other scientific team members. Data collection times and durations will be determined by the PI and Co-PIs in consultation with instrument engineers to ensure the capture of data representative of the expected range of mid-Atlantic atmospheric conditions (e.g., temperature, moisture, coastal low pressure systems, tropical systems, rain, snow, fog). The collection and processing of the data is a function of site specific measurement requirements (Kelley et.al. 2007; Hannon et.al. 2008). To determine the optimal profiles of wind speed and direction from the LIDAR radial velocities as a function of azimuth angle, rigorous estimates of the bias and random error of each radial velocity estimate are required. Lockheed Martin Coherent Technologies, Inc., under contract with Fishermen’s Energy, will provide analyses of raw and processed data using various scan patterns to determine optimal performance settings for the pulsed scanning LIDAR. Once optimized, appropriate processing and analyses techniques will be evaluated by Garrad Hassan for use in validating the accuracy of the LIDAR wind field measurements against the standard anemometer measurements from the meteorological masts. The most attractive capability of the scanning LIDAR is the ability to provide high spatial resolution observations in a three-dimensional volume which provides superior statistical accuracy due to the large number of samples obtained. Each radial scan provides measurements in 100 range gates over a distance of 10 to 12 km at an update rate of 5 to 10 Hz and rotation of 2.5° per second. Each rotation at a fixed azimuth requires 2.4 minutes. Depending on the number of azimuths desired a complete scan can take up to 10 minutes or longer to complete. Once collected the radial velocities are processed to produce vector wind velocity estimates based on a set of data distributed in angle and range around points of interest, typically a standard grid within the radial wind map. To calculate wind vectors over a limited spatial area of interest for the comparison of data with other measurement platforms a localized least-squares approach has been applied by Hannon et.al. (2008) and a Variation Assimilation (VAR) processing technique has been applied by Chan and al Assimilation (VAR) processing technique has been applied by Chan and Shao (2006). Additionally, Kelley et.al. (2007) applied a “stare” technique that fixed a scanning LIDAR in both azimuth and elevation angles to measure over collocated sampling volumes of the LIDAR and a 3D sonic anemometer mounted to a fixed mast. Although the stare technique is limited to wind directions aligned with the sampling radial of the LIDAR, it does provide a direct comparison of sampling volumes. Each of the processing techniques described above (and possibly others) will be evaluated to determine the validity of the LIDAR derived wind fields in the marine environment. Numerical methods such as linear regression and comparison of probability density functions of wind fields measured by each instrument platform will be used to assess the processing techniques. Linear regression has the advantage of directly evaluating corresponding pairs of wind data measured by each instrument and can lend insight into deviations and bias between instruments as a function of wind speed. Assessment of the coherency between the probability density function of the wind measured by each instrument provides insight into processes that may not be accurately resolved by each instrument at specific frequencies. Once processed and assessed the most appropriate technique will be utilized to provide valid wind measurements from the pulsed scanning LIDAR. A detailed analysis of the measurement data from the LIDAR and the three meteorological towers and comparison of the coastal wind characteristics from the different systems will be performed by the CO_PI at NREL. This analysis will evaluate how the WT LIDAR performance and measurement of the wind characteristics vary with distance from the LIDAR and by atmospheric conditions; using the tower measurements at different distances (4.8, 9.6, and 19 km) from the LIDAR as a reference. The comparative analysis will include, to the extent possible, evaluation of parameters such as wind speed and direction distributions, wind shear, turbulence intensity and their variations by atmospheric conditions, month or season, and time of day.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The Summertime Precipitation Bias in E3SM Atmosphere Model Version 1 over the Central United States

This study analyzes the summertime precipitation bias over the Central United States and its relationship to the simulated large-scale environment and the convection scheme in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Atmosphere Model version 1. This relationship is mainly examined in a set of short-term hindcasts initialized with realistic large-scale conditions for the summer of 2011. Besides the uniform 1° model resolution, we adopt Regionally Refined Meshes to increase the model resolution to 0.25°over the contiguous United States. Additional five-year Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations are conducted to confirm that the results from the hindcasts are consistent with the climate runs. We find that the summertime dry precipitation bias over the Great Plains and the wet bias over the Rockies cannot be reduced simultaneously by changing resolution or tuning parameters. As for the diurnal cycle, Energy Exascale Earth System Model Atmosphere Model version 1 captures the general diurnal variation of the large-scale moisture transport and the large-scale upward motion over the Central United States. However, the diurnal cycle of precipitation over the Great Plains is out of phase with the diurnal variation of the large-scale environment because the convective precipitation dominates the total precipitation and its diurnal cycle, and it does not directly respond to the local moisture convergence and the large-scale upward motion. These results reemphasize the importance of improving the coupling of the convection to the large-scale environment in reducing the summer precipitation bias over the Central United States in climate models with the resolution of ~0.25°.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interactive Gas Chemistry for Enhanced Science Capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3

Atmospheric chemistry plays a crucial role in Earth system models (ESMs), controlling atmospheric composition and radiative balance; it is highly interactive with the physical climate, biogeochemical cycles, and human systems. However, it often imposes computational challenges in an ESM. Here we develop a full troposphere‐stratosphere interactive chemistry module for the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We intentionally build a streamlined module based on E3SM version 2 that interacts with other components and maintains all of major chemical and chemistry‐climate feedbacks. The module incorporates a new, highly efficient tracer advection scheme; linearization of stratospheric chemistry; and abridged tropospheric chemical mechanism with 28 reactive tracers. This new model, E3SM‐chem, can readily perform century‐long climate simulations of ozone, methane, and nitrous oxide based on emission scenarios as well as provide hourly budgets for the gas‐phase radicals that drive aerosol chemistry. We evaluate E3SM‐chem with an atmosphere‐only simulation as in the recent climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6) finding results similar to the other CMIP6 models. For the present‐day, E3SM‐chem matches the standard measurement metrics for stratospheric and tropospheric ozone, surface air quality, other key reactive gases like carbon monoxide, and the methane lifetime. Overall, E3SM‐chem maintains the climate fidelity of the baseline model while adding at most 20% to the computational cost of the atmosphere model. Hence, interactive chemistry can be a default configuration for long climate simulations at resolutions of 1° or finer, which is crucial for producing self‐consistent chemistry‐climate feedbacks that alter the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Convolutional neural networks on the HEALPix sphere: a pixel-based algorithm and its application to CMB data analysis

We describe a novel method for the application of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to fields defined on the sphere, using the Hierarchical Equal Area Latitude Pixelization scheme (HEALPix). Specifically, we have developed a pixel-based approach to implement convolutional and pooling layers on the spherical surface, similarly to what is commonly done for CNNs applied to Euclidean space. The main advantage of our algorithm is to be fully integrable with existing, highly optimized libraries for NNs (e.g., PyTorch, TensorFlow, etc.). We present two applications of our method: (i) recognition of handwritten digits projected on the sphere; (ii) estimation of cosmological parameter from simulated maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The latter represents the main target of this exploratory work, whose goal is to show the applicability of our CNN to CMB parameter estimation. We have built a simple NN architecture, consisting of four convolutional and pooling layers, and we have used it for all the applications explored herein. Concerning the recognition of handwritten digits, our CNN reaches an accuracy of ~95%, comparable with other existing spherical CNNs, and this is true regardless of the position and orientation of the image on the sphere. For CMB-related applications, we tested the CNN on the estimation of a mock cosmological parameter, defining the angular scale at which the power spectrum of a Gaussian field projected on the sphere peaks. We estimated the value of this parameter directly from simulated maps, in several cases: temperature and polarization maps, presence of white noise, and partially covered maps. For temperature maps, the NN performances are comparable with those from standard spectrum-based Bayesian methods. For polarization, CNNs perform about a factor four worse than standard algorithms. Nonetheless, our results demonstrate, for the first time, that CNNs are able to extract information from polarization fields, both in full-sky and masked maps, and to distinguish between E and B -modes in pixel space. Lastly, we have applied our CNN to the estimation of the Thomson scattering optical depth at reionization ( τ ) from simulated CMB maps. Even without any specific optimization of the NN architecture, we reach an accuracy comparable with standard Bayesian methods. This work represents a first step towards the exploitation of NNs in CMB parameter estimation and demonstrates the feasibility of our approach.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Computation of rarefied hypersonic flows

Numerical techniques for the simulation of hypersonic flows of rarefied gases are examined in an analytical review. The direct-simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method developed to interpret measurement data obtained by the Space Shuttle in the SUMS project is described; the fundamental limitations of the DMSC approach are discussed; and modifications to improve the physical plausibility of DSMC predictions are proposed. Particular attention is given to the use of a double-peaked molecular distribution function for the internal flow in the SUMS probe, a downstream vacuum-reservoir condition as a simplifying assumption, and an explicit forward-time centered-space differencing scheme for the discretization of the SUMS problem. Typical simulation results are presented in extensive graphs and briefly characterized.

Cheng, Sin-I↗

An assessment of viscous effects in computational simulation of benign and burst vortex flows on generic fighter wind-tunnel models using TEAM code

Vortex flows on a twin-tail and a single-tail modular transonic vortex interaction (MTVI) model, representative of a generic fighter configuration, are computationally simulated in this study using the Three-dimensional Euler/Navier-Stokes Aerodynamic Method (TEAM). The primary objective is to provide an assessment of viscous effects on benign (10 deg angle of attack) and burst (35 deg angle of attack) vortex flow solutions. This study was conducted in support of a NASA project aimed at assessing the viability of using Euler technology to predict aerodynamic characteristics of aircraft configurations at moderate-to-high angles of attack in a preliminary design environment. The TEAM code solves the Euler and Reynolds-average Navier-Stokes equations on patched multiblock structured grids. Its algorithm is based on a cell-centered finite-volume formulation with multistage time-stepping scheme. Viscous effects are assessed by comparing the computed inviscid and viscous solutions with each other and experimental data. Also, results of Euler solution sensitivity to grid density and numerical dissipation are presented for the twin-tail model. The results show that proper accounting of viscous effects is necessary for detailed design and optimization but Euler solutions can provide meaningful guidelines for preliminary design of flight vehicles which exhibit vortex flows in parts of their flight envelope.

Kinard, Tim A.↗

Automated Detection of Spurious Signals in VLBI Phase Calibration Data

In this memorandum, a set of processing strategies for automatic masking of phase calibration tones is outlined as implemented in the software package PIMA in the task Generate Phase Calibration Mask, or GEPM. The task relies on a robust procedure of cleaning phase calibration data before employing several mathematical strategies designed to selectively identify spurious signals from phase calibration tones. These strategies were derived as more rigorous implementations of heuristics traditionally used by analysts in manually identifying problematic phase calibration data. The task is intended to automate the process of generating a phase calibration mask and in so doing increase the speed and regularity of VLBI analysis. At the outset of the project, a series of goals were identified to evaluate the success of this mask generation. This included the development of an algorithm to identify and mask short-term (defined as less than 10 seconds in length) spurious signals affecting phase calibration data, the development of an algorithm to identify and mask phase calibration tones affected by constant radio-frequency interference, the implementation of a detection scheme for identifying large jumps in phase calibration phase caused by clock breaks, and finally a method of reporting phase calibration health metrics to the user. Processing of over 10 experiments has demonstrated that the final form of the task GEPM as detailed in this technical memorandum satisfies each of these conditions and satisfactorily performs the task of automatic phase calibration data masking, although the wide variety in quality and characteristics of phase calibration data makes a single solution to the problem quite difficult. A series of user inputs have therefore been defined to assist analysts in tailoring automatic masking to specific stations and phase calibration generators. The vast majority of applicable code was written in FORTRAN to increase execution speed and ease of interfacing with the existing code base in PIMA, but a wrapper function in Python was also written to allow for a simpler method of interacting with GEPM and inputting relevant parameters. In addition to this report, thorough documentation was added to the already existing repositories associated with PIMA as a whole.

Geodesy↗

A Comparison of Real-Time Thermal Rating Systems in the U.S. and the U.K.

Real-time thermal rating is a smart-grid technology that allows the rating of electrical conductors to be increased based on local weather conditions. Overhead lines are conventionally given a conservative, constant seasonal rating based on seasonal and regional worst case scenarios rather than actual, say, local hourly weather predictions. This paper provides a report of two pioneering schemes-one in the U.S. and one in the U.K.-where real-time thermal ratings have been applied. Thereby, we demonstrate that observing the local weather conditions in real time leads to additional capacity and safer operation. Second, we critically compare both approaches and discuss their limitations. In doing so, we arrive at novel insights which will inform and improve future real-time thermal rating projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Dynamic Monte Carlo Transient Analysis with Thermal-Hydraulic Feedback by McCARD/CUPID

The reactor core transient analysis requires neutronics calculations with the thermal-hydraulic (TH) feedback. Recently the dynamic Monte Carlo (DMC) neutron transport algorithm controlling delayed neutron precursors was developed and successfully applied for core transient problems with help of a sub-channel code. In the Seoul National University Monte Carlo (MC) code, McCARD, a DMC scheme for the core transient analysis has been implemented by coupling with a computational fluid dynamics code, CUPID using the TCP/IP socket communication. In the McCARD/CUPID transient calculations, temperature-dependent cross sections are produced by a built-in on-the-fly Doppler broadening (OTF DB) module. This paper presents McCARD/CUPID transient analysis results for a triangular unit cell problem in the IAEA coordinated research project (CRP) benchmark on the high temperature gas cooled reactor (HTGR) uncertainty analysis. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Load Control System Reliability

This report summarizes the results of the Load Control System Reliability project (DOE Award DE-FC26-06NT42750). The original grant was awarded to Montana Tech April 2006. Follow-on DOE awards and expansions to the project scope occurred August 2007, January 2009, April 2011, and April 2013. In addition to the DOE monies, the project also consisted of matching funds from the states of Montana and Wyoming. Project participants included Montana Tech; the University of Wyoming; Montana State University; NorthWestern Energy, Inc., and MSE. Research focused on two areas: real-time power-system load control methodologies; and, power-system measurement-based stability-assessment operation and control tools. The majority of effort was focused on area 2. Results from the research includes: development of fundamental power-system dynamic concepts, control schemes, and signal-processing algorithms; many papers (including two prize papers) in leading journals and conferences and leadership of IEEE activities; one patent; participation in major actual-system testing in the western North American power system; prototype power-system operation and control software installed and tested at three major North American control centers; and, the incubation of a new commercial-grade operation and control software tool. Work under this grant certainly supported the DOE-OE goals in the area of “Real Time Grid Reliability Management.”

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Automation of closed environments in space for human comfort and safety

This report culminates the work accomplished during a three year design project on the automation of an Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) suitable for space travel and colonization. The system would provide a comfortable living environment in space that is fully functional with limited human supervision. A completely automated ECLSS would increase astronaut productivity while contributing to their safety and comfort. The first section of this report, section 1.0, briefly explains the project, its goals, and the scheduling used by the team in meeting these goals. Section 2.0 presents an in-depth look at each of the component subsystems. Each subsection describes the mathematical modeling and computer simulation used to represent that portion of the system. The individual models have been integrated into a complete computer simulation of the CO2 removal process. In section 3.0, the two simulation control schemes are described. The classical control approach uses traditional methods to control the mechanical equipment. The expert control system uses fuzzy logic and artificial intelligence to control the system. By integrating the two control systems with the mathematical computer simulation, the effectiveness of the two schemes can be compared. The results are then used as proof of concept in considering new control schemes for the entire ECLSS. Section 4.0 covers the results and trends observed when the model was subjected to different test situations. These results provide insight into the operating procedures of the model and the different control schemes. The appendix, section 5.0, contains summaries of lectures presented during the past year, homework assignments, and the completed source code used for the computer simulation and control system.

Source record↗

K-Shell Photoabsorption and Photoionisation of Trace Elements I. Isoelectronic Sequences With Electron Number 3< or = N < or = 11

Context. With the recent launching of the Hitomi X-ray space observatory, K lines and edges of chemical elements with low cosmic abundances, namely F, Na, P, Cl, K, Sc, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Co, Cu and Zn, can be resolved and used to determine important properties of supernova remnants, galaxy clusters and accreting black holes and neutron stars.Aims. The second stage of the present ongoing project involves the computation of the accurate photoabsorption and photoionisation cross sections required to interpret the X-ray spectra of such trace elements.Methods. Depending on target complexity and computer tractability, ground-state cross sections are computed either with the close-coupling Breit-Pauli R-matrix method or with the autostructure atomic structure code in the isolated-resonance approximation. The intermediate-coupling scheme is used whenever possible. In order to determine a realistic K-edge behaviour for each species, both radiative and Auger dampings are taken into account, the latter being included in the R-matrix formalism by means of an optical potential.Results. Photoabsorption and total and partial photoionisation cross sections are reported for isoelectronic sequences with electron numbers 3< or = N< or = 11. The Na sequence (N=11) is used to estimate the contributions from configurations with a 2s hole (i.e. [2s]) and those containing 3d orbitals, which will be crucial when considering sequences with N 11.Conclusions. It is found that the [2s/u] configurations must be included in the target representations of species with N> 11 as they contribute significantly to the monotonic background of the cross section between the L and K edges. Configurations with 3d orbitals are important in rendering an accurate L edge, but they can be practically neglected in the K-edge region.

atomic data / X-rays: general↗