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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2017

Short-term solar irradiance forecasting via satellite/model coupling

Here, the short-term (0-3 h) prediction of solar insolation for renewable energy production is a problem well-suited to satellite-based techniques. The spatial, spectral, temporal and radiometric resolution of instrumentation hosted on the geostationary platform allows these satellites to describe the current cloud spatial distribution and optical properties. These properties relate directly to the transient properties of the downwelling solar irradiance at the surface, which come in the form of 'ramps' that pose a central challenge to energy load balancing in a spatially distributed network of solar farms. The short-term evolution of the cloud field may be approximated to first order simply as translational, but care must be taken in how the advection is handled and where the impacts are assigned. In this research, we describe how geostationary satellite observations are used with operational cloud masking and retrieval algorithms, wind field data from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), and radiative transfer calculations to produce short-term forecasts of solar insolation for applications in solar power generation. The scheme utilizes retrieved cloud properties to group pixels into contiguous cloud objects whose future positions are predicted using four-dimensional (space + time) model wind fields, selecting steering levels corresponding to the cloud height properties of each cloud group. The shadows associated with these clouds are adjusted for sensor viewing parallax displacement and combined with solar geometry and terrain height to determine the actual location of cloud shadows. For mid/high-level clouds at mid-latitudes and high solar zenith angles, the combined displacements from these geometric considerations are non-negligible. The cloud information is used to initialize a radiative transfer model that computes the direct and diffuse-sky solar insolation at both shadow locations and intervening clear-sky regions. Here, we describe the formulation of the algorithm and validate its performance against Surface Radiation (SURFRAD; Augustine et al., 2000, 2005) network observations. Typical errors range from 8.5% to 17.2% depending on the complexity of cloud regimes, and an operational demonstration outperformed persistence-based forecasting of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) under all conditions by ~10 W/m 2 .

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Organizing principles for vegetation dynamics

Understanding vegetation dynamics is very challenging because of the multitude of contributing processes at 64widely different spatial and temporal scales. In this Perspective we propose that understanding of vegetation dynamics can be improved, permitting better predictions, based on organizing principles that constrain plant and ecosystem be haviour: natural selection, self-organization, and entropy maximization. Although these ideas are increasingly used,a limited common understanding of their theoretical basis has prevented their full potential to be realized. We explain the power of natural selection-based optimality to predict photosynthesis and carbon allocation responses to multiple environmental drivers, and how individual plasticity leads to the predictable self-organization of forest canopies. We show how models of natural selection acting on a few key traits can generate realistic plant communities, and how entropy maximization can distinguish between stochastic and deterministic drivers of vegetation patterns. In combination with empirical exploration of patterns in plant functional variation, these principles can accelerate the development of dynamic vegetation models as well as trait-based ecology resting on strengthened theoretical and empirical foundations.

Geosciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

Distortions in charged-particle images of laser direct-drive inertial confinement fusion implosions

Energetic charged particles generated by inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosions encode information about the spatial morphology of the hotspot and dense fuel during the time of peak fusion reactions. The knock-on deuteron imager (KoDI) was developed at the Omega Laser Facility to image these particles in order to diagnose low-mode asymmetries in the hotspot and dense fuel layer of cryogenic deuterium–tritium ICF implosions. However, the images collected are distorted in several ways that prevent reconstruction of the deuteron source. In this paper, we describe these distortions and a series of attempts to mitigate or compensate for them. We present several potential mechanisms for the distortions, including a new model for scattering of charged particles in filamentary electric or magnetic fields surrounding the implosion. Particle-tracing is used to create synthetic KoDI data based on the filamentary field model that reproduces the main experimentally observed image distortions. We conclude that the filamentary scattering model best matches the observed image distortions. Finally, we discuss potential impacts of filamentary fields on other charged-particle diagnostics.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Closed-loop control of active nematic flows

Stabilizing and shaping autonomous flows of active fluids is a fundamental challenge and a prerequisite for applications. We embed a light-responsive microtubule-based nematic in a proportional-integral control loop that adjusts the applied light intensity in response to real-time measurements of the spatially averaged flow speed. The self-regulating hardware/software/wetware system maintains a target flow speed against external or internal perturbations, including protein aging and aggregation, sample-to-sample variability, and temperature variation. Varying the controller’s gains reveals antagonistic roles between feedback and intrinsic processes, leading to nontrivial dynamics observed in fluctuation spectra. In particular, oscillations emerge from the interplay between the controller, motor binding kinetics, and active hydrodynamic relaxation. Accounting for the underlying binding timescale, our coarse-grained model and nematohydrodynamics simulations corroborate these observations. This work provides insight into the coupled dynamics of controlled active matter, laying the foundation for spatiotemporal patterning of active stress to generate and stabilize new dynamical configurations.

Nishiyama, Katsu [Brandeis Univ., Waltham, MA (Uni↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantum Light Emission from Coupled Defect States in DNA-Functionalized Carbon Nanotubes

Solid-state single-photon sources are essential building blocks for quantum photonics and quantum information technologies. This study demonstrates promising single-photon emission from quantum defects generated in single-wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) by covalent reaction with guanine nucleotides in their single-stranded DNA coatings. Low-temperature photoluminescence spectroscopy and photon-correlation measurements on individual guanine-functionalized SWCNTs (GF-SWCNTs) indicate that multiple, closely spaced guanine defect sites within a single ssDNA strand collectively form an exciton trapping potential that supports a localized quantum state capable of room-temperature single-photon emission. In addition, exciton traps from adjacent ssDNA strands are weakly coupled to give cross-correlations between their separate photon emissions. Theoretical modeling identifies coupling mechanism as a capture of band-edge excitons. Finally, because the spatial pattern of nanotube functionalization sites can be readily controlled by selecting ssDNA base sequences, GF-SWCNTs should become a versatile family of quantum light emitters with engineered properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Geospatial Information, Metadata, and Maps for Global River Corridor Science Focus Area Sites (v5)

This dataset provides geospatial information, metadata, and maps for the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) River Corridor Science Focus Area (RC-SFA; https://www.pnnl.gov/projects/river-corridor) sites. The RC-SFA works to transform understanding of spatial and temporal dynamics in river corridor hydrobiogeochemical functions from molecular reaction to watershed and basin scales. The knowledge we gain is used to formulate and test hypotheses and to improve mechanistic representation of river corridor processes and their response to disturbances in multiscale models of integrated hydrobiogeochemical function. The data provided includes Site ID, latitude, longitude, stream name, and common ID (COMID) for sites used across the RC-SFA. The COMID can be used to find and download data from NHDPlus (https://www.epa.gov/waterdata/nhdplus-national-hydrography-dataset-plus) and other platforms. The sites included are non-exhaustive. Sites (including past sites) will be added to this data package in the future. Data generated from the RC SFA can be accessed at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA. This data package was originally published in April 2023. It was updated in June 2023 (v2; modified files), December 2023 (v3; modified files), January 2025 (v4; modified files), and December 2025 (v5; modified files). See the change history section in the readme for more details. This dataset is comprised of one main data folder. The data folder consists of (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) readme; (4) methods codes; (5) geospatial information for all RC SFA sites including International Generic Sample Number (IGSN); (6) maps of all sites and sites in Washington State, USA; and (7) a subfolder with the shapefile of all sites. All files are .csv, .pdf, .shp, .cpg, .dbf, .prj, .qmd, or .shx. We thank the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation for access to field locations where some data were collected in Washington state. We also thank the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. II - Regional Study

The higher-spatial-resolution model of 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. II - Regional Study' (the Regional Study), which better represents the impact of congestion on least-cost scheduling and dispatch, provides a deeper understanding of the relationship among renewable energy (RE) location, transmission, and system flexibility with regard to RE integration, compared to 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. I - National Study.' The Regional Study validates the relative value of mitigation strategies demonstrated in the National Study - namely, coordinated operations among states reduce production costs, and reducing coal minimum generation levels reduces RE curtailment. Significantly, the Regional Study also highlights a potential barrier to realizing the value of these mitigation strategies: when locations of RE development are planned independently of state-level transmission, intrastate congestion can result in undesirable levels of RE curtailment. Therefore a key objective of this study is to illustrate to state-level power system planners and operators, in particular, how a higher-resolution model, inclusive of intrastate granularity, can be used as a planning tool for two primary purposes: -To better anticipate, understand, and mitigate system constraints that could affect RE integration; and - To provide a modeling framework that can be used as part of future transmission studies and planning efforts. The Regional Study is not intended to predict precisely how RE will affect state-level operations. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the locations of the RE development, as well as how contract terms can affect access to the inherent physical flexibility of the system. But the scenarios analyzed identify the types of issues that can arise under various RE and transmission expansion pathways. The model developed for this study provides a rigorous framework for future work and can be updated with the characteristics of new capacity as more information on the future power system is known.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2017

Greening the Grid: Integrating 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid - A Detailed Look at the Western Region

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2017

Greening the Grid: Integrating 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid - A Detailed Look at the Southern Region

The higher-spatial-resolution model of 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. II - Regional Study' (the Regional Study), which better represents the impact of congestion on least-cost scheduling and dispatch, provides a deeper understanding of the relationship among renewable energy (RE) location, transmission, and system flexibility with regard to RE integration, compared to 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. I - National Study.' The Regional Study validates the relative value of mitigation strategies demonstrated in the National Study - namely, coordinated operations among states reduce production costs, and reducing coal minimum generation levels reduces RE curtailment. Significantly, the Regional Study also highlights a potential barrier to realizing the value of these mitigation strategies: when locations of RE development are planned independently of state-level transmission, intrastate congestion can result in undesirable levels of RE curtailment. Therefore a key objective of this study is to illustrate to state-level power system planners and operators, in particular, how a higher-resolution model, inclusive of intrastate granularity, can be used as a planning tool for two primary purposes: to better anticipate, understand, and mitigate system constraints that could affect RE integration; and to provide a modeling framework that can be used as part of future transmission studies and planning efforts. The Regional Study is not intended to predict precisely how RE will affect state-level operations. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the locations of the RE development, as well as how contract terms can affect access to the inherent physical flexibility of the system. But the scenarios analyzed identify the types of issues that can arise under various RE and transmission expansion pathways. The model developed for this study provides a rigorous framework for future work and can be updated with the characteristics of new capacity as more information on the future power system is known.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development and validation of a high-resolution regional wave hindcast model for U.S. West Coast wave resource characterization

Not Available

Wu, Wei-Cheng (ORCID:0000000222156351)↗

DOE OSTI2019

Predicting CO 2 Plume Migration in Heterogeneous Formations Using Conditional Deep Convolutional Generative Adversarial Network

Numerical simulation of flow and transport in heterogeneous formations has long been studied, especially for uncertainty quantification and risk assessment. The high computational cost associated with running large-scale numerical simulations in a Monte Carlo sense has motivated the development of surrogate models, which aim to capture the important input-output relations of physics-based models but require only a fraction of the cost of full model runs. In this work, we formulate a conditional deep convolutional generative adversarial network (cDC-GAN) surrogate model to learn the dynamic functional mappings in multiphase models. The cDC-GAN belongs to a class of semisupervised learning methods that can be used to learn the data generation processes. Like the original GAN, a main strength of the cDC-GAN is that it includes a self-training scheme for improving the quality of generative modeling in a game theoretic framework, without requiring extensive statistical knowledge and assumptions on input data distributions. In particular, our cDC-GAN model is designed to learn cross-domain mappings between high-dimensional input (e.g., permeability) and output (e.g., phase saturations) pairs, with the ability to incorporate conditioning information (e.g., prediction time). As a use case, we demonstrate the performance of cDC-GAN for predicting the migration of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) plume in heterogeneous carbon storage reservoirs, which has both numerical and practical significance because of the safe storage requirements now mandated in many countries. Results show that cDC-GAN achieves high accuracy in predicting the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of the injected CO 2 plume, as compared to the original results obtained using a compositional reservoir simulator. The performance of cDC-GAN models, trained using the same number of training samples, stays relatively robust when the level of spatial heterogeneity is increased. Our cDC-GAN is pattern based and is not limited by the underlying physics. Thus, it provides a general framework for developing surrogate models, and for conducting uncertainty analyses for a wide range of physics-based models used in both groundwater and subsurface energy exploration applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

DiffESM: Conditional Emulation of Temperature and Precipitation in Earth System Models With 3D Diffusion Models

Earth system models (ESMs) are essential for understanding the interaction between human activities and the Earth's climate. However, the computational demands of ESMs often limit the number of simulations that can be run, hindering the robust analysis of risks associated with extreme weather events. While low-cost climate emulators have emerged as an alternative to emulate ESMs and enable rapid analysis of future climate, many of these emulators only provide output on at most a monthly frequency. This temporal resolution is insufficient for analyzing events that require daily characterization, such as heat waves or heavy precipitation. We propose using diffusion models, a class of generative deep learning models, to effectively downscale ESM output from a monthly to a daily frequency. Trained on a handful of ESM realizations, reflecting a wide range of radiative forcings, our DiffESM model takes monthly mean precipitation or temperature as input, and is capable of producing daily values with statistical characteristics close to ESM output. Combined with a low-cost emulator providing monthly means, this approach requires only a small fraction of the computational resources needed to run a large ensemble. We evaluate model behavior using a number of extreme metrics, showing that DiffESM closely matches the spatio-temporal behavior of the ESM output it emulates in terms of the frequency and spatial characteristics of phenomena such as heat waves, dry spells, or rainfall intensity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Observed and Simulated Sensitivities of Spring Greenup to Preseason Climate in Northern Temperate and Boreal Regions: Climate control on spring phenology

Vegetation phenology plays an important role in regulating land-atmosphere energy, water, and trace-gas exchanges. Changes in spring greenup (SG) have been documented in the past half-century in response to ongoing climate change. We use normalized difference vegetation index generated from NOAA's advanced very high resolution radiometer data in the Global Inventory Modeling and Monitoring Study project over the 1982–2005 period, coupled with climate reanalysis (Climate Research Unit-National Centers for Environmental Prediction) to investigate the SG responses to preseason climate change in northern temperate and boreal regions. We compared these observed responses to the simulated SG responses to preseason climate inferred from the Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) over 1982–2005. The observationally inferred SG suggests that there has been an advance of about 1 days per decade between 1982 and 2005 in the northern midlatitude to high latitude, with significant spatial heterogeneity. The spatial heterogeneity of the SG advance results from heterogeneity in the change of the preseason climate as well as varied vegetation responses to the preseason climate across biomes. The SG to preseason temperature sensitivity is highest in forests other than deciduous needleleaf forests, followed by temperate grasslands and woody savannas. The SG in deciduous needleleaf forests, open shrublands, and tundra is relatively insensitive to preseason temperature. Although the extent of regions where the SG is sensitive to preseason precipitation is smaller than the extent of regions where the SG is sensitive to preseason temperature, the biomes that are more sensitive to temperature are also more sensitive to precipitation, suggesting the interactive control of temperature and precipitation. Finally, in the mean, the CMIP5 ESMs reproduced the dominant latitudinal preseason climate trends and SG advances. However, large biases in individual ESMs for the preseason period, climate, and SG sensitivity imply needed model improvements to climate prediction and phenological process parameterizations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation in Texas

Wind and solar energy sources are climate and weather dependent, therefore susceptible to a changing climate. in this paper, we quantify the impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation under high concentrations of greenhouse gases in Texas. We employ mid-twenty-first century climate projections and a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model to generate weather variables in the future and produce wind and solar generation time series. We find that mid-twenty-first century projections based on five global climate models agree on the multiyear average increases across Texas in direct normal irradiance, global horizontal irradiance, surface air temperature, and 100-m wind speed of up to 5%, 4%, 10%, and 1%, respectively. These changes lead to multiyear average relative changes across Texas of -0.6 to + 2.5% and of + 1.3 to + 3.5% in solar and wind capacity factors, respectively, with significant regional, seasonal, and diurnal differences. Areas with low solar resource show an increase in solar capacity factors but reductions in wind capacity factors. Areas with high solar resource show reductions in solar capacity factors. The spatial and temporal differences in our results highlight the importance of using high-resolution data sets to study the potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar power.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Closed-Loop Control of Active Nematic Flows

Stabilizing and shaping autonomous flows of active fluids is a fundamental challenge and a prerequisite for applications. We embed a light-responsive microtubule-based nematic in a proportional-integral control loop that adjusts the applied light intensity in response to real-time measurements of the spatially averaged flow speed. The self-regulating hardware-software-wetware system maintains a target flow speed against external or internal perturbations, including protein aging and aggregation, sample-to-sample variability, and temperature variation. Varying the controller’s gains reveals antagonistic roles between feedback and intrinsic processes, leading to nontrivial dynamics observed in fluctuation spectra. In particular, oscillations emerge from the interplay between the controller, motor binding kinetics, and active hydrodynamic relaxation. Accounting for the underlying binding timescale, our coarse-grained model and nematohydrodynamics simulations corroborate these observations. This work provides insight into the coupled dynamics of controlled active matter, laying the foundation for spatiotemporal patterning of active stress to generate and stabilize new dynamical configurations.

Active nematics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulated Feasibility of 3-D Lightning Mapping From Space

In addition to the awe it inspires, lightning can illuminate the microphysical processes hidden away within deep convection. The current generation of space-based lightning mapping uses mostly 2-D optical imaging to connect overall flash characteristics to their parent storm dynamics, but are missing a dimension’s worth of information. With lightning now classified as an essential climate variable, future spaceborne mappers will need improved capabilities to take advantage of the 3-D structure of lightning flashes to support meteorological and climate modeling. We report here on a study of the feasibility of high-resolution 3-D lightning mapping using a radio frequency (RF)-based network of satellites from low-Earth orbit (LEO). Lightning sources are simulated using existing lightning mapping array (LMA) tools, modified for orbital detection, and spatially reconstructed using a Levenberg–Marquardt geolocation algorithm to assess sources of uncertainty in these solutions. We analyze the benefits and limitations of this approach compared to existing orbital and ground-based methods. Results of this study show that lightning can be mapped in 3-D with a vertical location accuracy better than 2 km using as few as five satellites in LEO capable of measuring the time-of-arrival of impulsive RF signals in the very high-frequency (VHF) band. The consequence of this study is that high-resolution, spaceborne 3-D mapping of lightning is achievable across most of the globe, having crucial implications for our understanding of not only lightning, but also severe weather development, climate science, and more.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

San Juan Islands Tidal Energy Characterization

The San Juan Islands are an archipelago with multiple tidal channels that produce strong tidal currents that could be harnessed for electricity generation. At present, there is limited electrical generation on the islands, with power primarily provided by a subsea cable connection with the mainland. As part of the C-MIST program, NOAA's CO-OPS program collected ADCP data at 46 stations in the San Juan Islands and adjacent waterways, from April to August of 2017. PNNL has recently developed a 3-D tidal hydrodynamic model for tidal energy resource characterization and assessment in the Salish Sea (Yang et al. 2021). Several tidal channels in the San Juan Islands were identified as top hotspots for potential tidal energy extraction. However, due to the complex geometry and inter-connected waterways, tidal currents around San Juan Islands also exhibit strong spatial and temporal asymmetry. Therefore, it is important to analyze the NOAA ADCP data to define metrics relevant to tidal energy, and further refine PNNL's tidal hydrodynamic model to accurately simulate currents in small tidal channels and account for sharp bathymetry gradients. The outcome of this technical assistance will allow developers to identify the promising opportunities for tidal energy in the San Juan Islands.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Compound Poisson Generator Approach to Point-source Inference in Astrophysics

Abstract The identification and description of point sources is one of the oldest problems in astronomy, yet even today the correct statistical treatment for point sources remains one of the field’s hardest problems. For dim or crowded sources, likelihood-based inference methods are required to estimate the uncertainty on the characteristics of the source population. In this work, a new parametric likelihood is constructed for this problem using compound Poisson generator (CPG) functionals that incorporate instrumental effects from first principles. We demonstrate that the CPG approach exhibits a number of advantages over non-Poissonian template fitting (NPTF)—an existing method—in a series of test scenarios in the context of X-ray astronomy. These demonstrations show that the effect of the point-spread function, effective area, and choice of point-source spatial distribution cannot, generally, be factorized as they are in NPTF, while the new CPG construction is validated in these scenarios. Separately, an examination of the diffuse-flux emission limit is used to show that most simple choices of priors on the standard parameterization of the population model can result in unexpected biases: when a model comprising both a point-source population and diffuse component is applied to this limit, nearly all observed flux will be assigned to either the population or to the diffuse component. A new parameterization is presented for these priors that properly estimates the uncertainties in this limit. In this choice of priors, CPG correctly identifies that the fraction of flux assigned to the population model cannot be constrained by the data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗