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A Time Series Sustainability Assessment of a Partial Energy Portfolio Transition

Energy portfolios are overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuel resources that perpetuate the consequences associated with climate change. Therefore, it is imperative to transition to more renewable alternatives to limit further harm to the environment. This study presents a univariate time series prediction model that evaluates sustainability outcomes of partial energy transitions. Future electricity generation at the state-level is predicted using exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The best prediction results are then used as an input for a sustainability assessment of a proposed transition by calculating carbon, water, land, and cost footprints. Missouri, USA was selected as a model testbed due to its dependence on coal. Of the time series methods, ARIMA exhibited the best performance and was used to predict annual electricity generation over a 10-year period. The proposed transition consisted of a one-percent annual decrease of coal’s portfolio share to be replaced with an equal share of solar and wind supply. The sustainability outcomes of the transition demonstrate decreases in carbon and water footprints but increases in land and cost footprints. Decision makers can use the results presented here to better inform strategic provisioning of critical resources in the context of proposed energy transitions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Possible quadrupole-order-driven commensurate-incommensurate phase transition in B20 CoGe

For this study, the B20-type cobalt germanide CoGe was investigated by measuring the specific heat, resistivity, and 59 Co nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR). We observed a phase transition at T Q = 13.7 K, evidenced by a very narrow peak of the specific heat and sharp changes of the nuclear spin-spin (T 2 –1 ) and spin-lattice ( T 1 – 1 ) relaxation rates. The fact that the entropy release is extremely small and the Knight shift is almost independent of temperature down to low temperatures as anticipated in a paramagnetic metal indicates that the T Q transition is of nonmagnetic origin. In addition, we detected a crossover scale T 0 ~ 30 K below which the resistivity and the NMR linewidth increase, and T 1 –1 is progressively distributed in space, that is, a static and dynamical spatial inhomogeneity develops. While the order parameter for the T Q transition remains an open question, a group-theoretical analysis suggests that the finite electric quadrupole density arising from the low local site symmetry at cobalt sites could drive the crystal symmetry lowering from the P2 1 3 symmetry that is commensurate to the R3 symmetry with an incommensurate wave vector, which fairly well accounts for the T Q transition. The quadrupole-order-driven commensurate-incommensurate phase transition may be another remarkable phenomenon arising from the structural chirality inherent in the noncentrosymmetric B20 family.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Robust Coupling between Structural and Electronic Transitions in a Mott Material

The interdependences of different phase transitions in Mott materials are fundamental to the understanding of the mechanisms behind them. One of the most important relations is between the ubiquitous structural and electronic transitions. Using IR spectroscopy, optical reflectivity, and x-ray diffraction, we show that the metal-insulator transition is coupled to the structural phase transition in V 2 O 3 films. This coupling persists even in films with widely varying transition temperatures and strains. Our findings are in contrast to recent experimental findings and theoretical predictions. Using V 2 O 3 as a model system, we discuss the pitfalls in measurements of the electronic and structural states of Mott materials in general, calling for a critical examination of previous work in this field. Furthermore, our findings also have important implications for the performance of Mott materials in next-generation neuromorphic computing technology.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Data and scripts associated with “Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) to Estimate Water Transit Times and Hydrologic Tracer Dynamics within Water-Tagging Enabled Hydrologic Models” (v3)

This data package is associated with the publication “Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) to Estimate Water Transit Times and Hydrologic Tracer Dynamics within Water-Tagging Enabled Hydrologic Models” submitted to Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (Butler et al. 2025). This study developed the Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) framework to tag input precipitation and estimate water transit times and hydrologic tracers. SPIT tags all precipitation events at regular intervals over an extended period (monthly tags over seven years) in a hydrologic model from 2016-2022. SPIT is applied at six National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites across the continental United States to calculate transit time distributions (TTD) and derive from these mean transit times (MTT), fractions of young water (Fyw), and hydrologic tracer concentrations in stream water (δ18O) within a water-tagging enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecast (WT-WRF-Hydro) model with national water model (NWM) configurations. We go on to validate WT-WRF-Hydro estimates against Butler et al. (2023), who analyzed the same NEON sites using stable water isotope data to estimate water transit times. This new tracking method provides a detailed picture of water movement and helps improve predictions about water availability in the future. This data package was originally published in January 2025. It was updated May 2025 (v2; new and modified files) and October 2025 (v3; new and modified files). File and folder names were not revised to indicate changes. See the change history section in the readme for more details. This data package contains the data and scripts used to develop the SPIT framework WT-WRF-Hydro (Water Tagging Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic) model and is associated with the following GitHub repository: https://github.com/zbutler33/SPIT-Framework. This data package contains five parent folders: (1) “Manipulated_outputs”, (2) “Metadata”, (3) “Observed”, (4) “Outputs”, and (5) “Scripts”. Each of these parent folders contains additional subfolders and files. Please see the FLMD (“v*_Butler_2024_WT_WRF_Hydro_flmd.csv”) for a list of all the files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. See the data dictionary (“v*_Butler_2024_WT_WRF_Hydro_dd.csv”) for definitions and units of all of the tabular (files ending in “.csv” and ".tsv") column headers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

In-Use Fleet Evaluation of Fast-Charge Battery Electric Transit Buses

With support from the U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts real-world performance evaluations of advanced medium- and heavy-duty fleet vehicles. Evaluation results can help vehicle manufacturers fine-tune their designs and assist fleet managers in selecting fuel-efficient, low-emission vehicles that meet their economic and operational goals. In 2015, NREL launched an in-service evaluation of 12 battery electric buses (BEBs) compared to conventional compressed natural gas (CNG) buses operated by Foothill Transit in West Covina, California. The study aims to improve understanding of the overall usage and effectiveness of fast-charge BEBs and associated charging infrastructure in transit operation. To date, NREL researchers have analyzed more than 148,000 km of in-use operational data, including driving and charging events. Foothill Transit purchased the BEBs with grant funding from the Federal Transit Administration's Transit Investments for Greenhouse Gas and Energy Reduction Program.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Asymmetry of the Ferroelectric Phase Transition in BaTiO 3

Symmetry changes during phase transformations fundamentally determine the behavior of thermodynamic systems, governing phenomena as diverse as water evaporation, fermion condensation, and epidemic spreading. Phase transitions are conventionally divided into two classes, and this classification is typically assumed to remain invariant upon reversing the transition. Here, an asymmetric phase transformation is uncovered in the ferroelectric–paraelectric transition of single-crystal BaTiO 3 , a model system for first-order transitions. Under slow temperature variation (≤0.1 °C min −1 ), thermodynamic, dielectric, and domain-structure measurements reveal that the ferroelectric-to-paraelectric transition exhibits latent heat, phase coexistence, and a discontinuous order parameter, while these signatures are absent upon cooling. Complementary phase-field simulations demonstrate similar behavior, attributing it to distinct elastic strain energy accumulation and release during heating and cooling. These findings reveal a first-order character upon heating but a second-order-like behavior upon cooling, challenging the conventional paradigm of symmetric phase-transition classification and suggesting new possibilities for ferroelectric-based energy storage.

Hershkovitz, Asaf [Technion-Israel Institute of Te↗

Gravitational waves from first-order phase transitions in Majoron models of neutrino mass

We show how the generation of right-handed neutrino masses in Majoron models may be associated with a first-order phase transition and accompanied by the production of a stochastic background of gravitational waves (GWs). We explore different energy scales with only renormalizable operators in the effective potential. If the phase transition occurs above the electroweak scale, the signal can be tested by future interferometers. We consider two possible energy scales for phase transitions below the electroweak scale. If the phase transition occurs at a GeV, the signal can be tested at LISA and provide a complementary cosmological probe to right-handed neutrino searches at the FASER detector. If the phase transition occurs below 100 keV, we find that the peak of the GW spectrum is two or more orders of magnitude below the putative NANOGrav GW signal at low frequencies, but well within reach of the SKA and THEIA experiments. We show how searches of very low frequency GWs are motivated by solutions to the Hubble tension in which ordinary neutrinos interact with the dark sector. We also present general calculations of the phase transition temperature and Euclidean action that apply beyond Majoron models.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Multiple Magnetic Phase Transitions in Mn-deficient Co{sub 0.4}Ni{sub 0.6}Mn{sub 1−x}Ge Compounds

The structural and magnetic transition in Mn-deficient Co{sub 0.4}Ni{sub 0.6}Mn{sub 1−x}Ge was investigated by DC magnetization and temperature-dependent X-ray diffraction measurements. By introducing Mn vacancies in the stoichiometric Co{sub 0.4}Ni{sub 0.6}MnGe compound, multiple magnetic phase transitions and tunable martensitic transitions were observed. A paramagnetic martensite (Ni{sub 2}In-type structure) to ferromagnetic austenite (TiNiSi-type structure) transition was realized in Co{sub 0.4}Ni{sub 0.6}Mn{sub 0.98}Ge around 275 K. A large volume expansion of 2.6% accompanied this transition. In addition, a martensitic transition induced by the magnetic field was also observed near room temperature. Furthermore, a significant magnetic entropy variation of − 21.3 J/kg K at 263 K (∆B = 5 T) was obtained in the Co{sub 0.4}Ni{sub 0.6}Mn{sub 0.98}Ge compound.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Horava–Lifshitz cosmology, entropic interpretation and quark–hadron phase transition

Based on the assumptions of the standard model of cosmology, a phase transition associated with chiral symmetry breaking after the electroweak transition has occurred at approximately 10 μs after the Big Bang to convert a plasma of free quarks and gluons into hadrons. We consider such a phase transition in the context of a deformed Horava–Lifshitz cosmology. The Friedmann equation for the deformed Horava–Lifshitz universe is obtained using the entropic interpretation of gravity, proposed by Verlinde. We investigate the effects of the parameter ω appearing in the theory on the evolution of the physical quantities relevant to a description of the early universe, namely, the energy density and temperature before, during and after the phase transition. Finally, we study the cross-over phase transition in both high and low temperature regions in view of the recent lattice QCD simulations data. -- Highlights: ► We study the problem of the quark–hadron phase transition in the early universe, in the context of Horava–Lifshitz cosmology. ► We conduct this study by including the recently introduced entropic principle. ► We study the behavior of thermodynamical parameters of the theory.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Correlation functions for a spin-(1/2) Ising-XYZ diamond chain: Further evidence for quasi-phases and pseudo-transitions

One-dimensional systems with short-range interactions cannot exhibit a long-range order at nonzero temperature. However, there are some particular one-dimensional models, such as the Ising–Heisenberg spin models with a variety of lattice geometries, which exhibit unexpected behavior similar to the discontinuous or continuous temperature-driven phase transition. Although these pseudo-transitions are not true temperature-driven transitions showing only abrupt changes or sharp peaks in thermodynamic quantities, they may be confused while interpreting experimental data. Here we consider the spin-(1/2) Ising-XYZ diamond chain in the regime when the model exhibits temperature-driven pseudo-transitions. We provide a detailed investigation of several correlation functions between distant spins that illustrates the properties of quasi-phases separated by pseudo-transitions. Inevitably, all correlation functions show the evidence of pseudo-transition, which are supported by the analytical solutions and, besides we provide a rigorous analytical investigation around the pseudo-critical temperature. It is worth to mention that the correlation functions between distant spins have an extremely large correlation length at pseudo-critical temperature.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Null geodesics and thermodynamic phase transition of four-dimensional Gauss–Bonnet AdS black hole

Highlights: • Modified gravity theories. • Null geodesics and the thermodynamic phase transition. • Four-dimensional Gauss–Bonnet AdS black hole. • Correlation between gravity and thermodynamics. Modified gravity theories are of great interest in both observational and theoretical studies. In this article, we study the correlation between the null geodesics and the thermodynamic phase transition of a four-dimensional Gauss–Bonnet AdS black hole. Firstly, we study the phase structure of the black hole, using the coexistence and spinodal curves, to understand the phase transition in an extended phase space. The imprints of these phase transition features can be clearly observed from the functional dependence of photon orbit radius and minimum impact parameter with respect to the Hawking temperature and pressure. The change in these two quantities during the phase transition serve as order parameters which characterise the critical behaviour. The correlation shows that thermodynamic phase transition can be studied by observing the effects of strong gravitational field on the photon orbit and vice versa.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Reduced-order microstructure-sensitive protocols to rank-order the transition fatigue resistance of polycrystalline microstructures

We present that the transition fatigue regime between low cycle fatigue (LCF) and high cycle fatigue (HCF) is often addressed in the design and performance evaluation of load-bearing components used in many structural applications. Transition fatigue is characterized by elevated levels of local inelastic deformation in significant regions of the microstructure as compared to HCF. Typically, crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM) simulations are performed to model this phenomenon and to rank-order microstructures by their resistance to crack formation and early growth in the regime of transition fatigue. Unfortunately, these approaches require significant computational resources, inhibiting their use to explore novel materials for transition fatigue resistance. Reduced-order, microstructure-sensitive models are needed to accelerate the search for next-generation, fatigue-resistant materials. In a recent study, Paulson et al. (2018) extended the materials knowledge system (MKS) framework for rank-ordering the HCF resistance of polycrystalline microstructures. The efficacy of this approach lies in the reduced-dimensional representation of microstructures through 2-point spatial correlations and principal component analysis (PCA), in addition to the characterization of the HCF response with a small set of performance measures. In this work, these same protocols are critically evaluated for their applicability to rank-order the transition fatigue resistance of the same class of polycrystalline microstructures subjected to increased strain amplitudes. Success in this endeavor requires the formation of homogenization linkages that account for the significantly higher levels of local inelastic deformation and stress redistribution in transition fatigue as compared to HCF. Finally, a set of 12 α-titanium microstructures generated using the open access DREAM.3D software (Groeber and Jackson, 2014) are employed for this evaluation.

2-point correlations↗

A search for temperature induced time-dependent structural transitions in 10mol%Sc 2 O 3 –1mol%CeO 2 –ZrO 2 and 8mol%Y 2 O 3 –ZrO 2 electrolyte ceramics

Both Sc 2 O 3 –CeO 2 -stabilized-ZrO 2 (SCSZ) and Y 2 O 3 -stabilized-ZrO 2 (YSZ) show similar Young's modulus damping at 175–400 °C and 200–400 °C, respectively, by impulse excitation acoustic technique. The phase transition in SCSZ is considered responsible for the damping; however for YSZ, such a phase transition has never been reported. To clarify the relation of damping and structural transition in these two materials, the time-dependent high temperature stabilities are studied by in situ X-ray diffraction, neutron diffraction and Raman scattering during long-term annealing of SCSZ at 350 °C and YSZ at 275 °C. The cubic-to-rhombohedral transition in SCSZ is detected. However, the existence of t' phase in YSZ raw powders is confirmed without significant changes of the cubic structure during isothermal annealing. It is concluded that the phase transition contributes to the Young's modulus damping in SCSZ, while the structural transition is excluded from the reason for damping in YSZ.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Review of condensed matter laser cooling using electric-dipole-allowed transitions

The cooling of solids via laser-excited anti-Stokes luminescence has reached the cryogenic regime and is now being considered for several applications that benefit from vibration-free cryogenic refrigeration. 4f-4f transitions in rare-earth-doped crystals with low phonon energies currently offer the best laser-cooling performance. These transitions, however, are electric-dipole (ED) forbidden and thus have low cross sections, limiting the minimum achievable temperatures in practical materials to the 50–100 K regime. In contrast, ED-allowed transitions may offer greater cross sections and potentially enable lower minimum temperatures or more compact devices. The search for laser cooling with ED-allowed transitions has been an active field of research over the past decades with a wide variety of materials having been studied. This paper reviews the fundamentals of solid-state laser cooling, provides a preliminary theoretical assessment showing that laser-cooling with ED-allowed transitions is in principle possible, and reviews the experimental results reported to date. While cooling with ED-allowed transitions has not yet been realized in the solid state, the existing experimental body of work along with the theoretical considerations presented here suggest that further research on this topic may be fruitful.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

A critical analysis of U-Pu-Zr phase transitions using calorimetric, microstructural, and phase equilibria data

Metallic fuels consisting primarily of uranium, plutonium, and zirconium (U-Pu-Zr) are a leading material candidate for fast-spectrum nuclear reactors. Early demonstration programs proved the principle of safe and efficient fast reactor operation, however there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the phase equilibria and microstructural evolution across the ternary composition space. Quantitative phase formation and identification measurements are scarce and often incomplete, with studies reporting either phase transition temperatures or phase identification data, but not both from the same specimens. In this study, we critically compared experimental and calculated phase transition data and correlated with the microstructure and phase characterization data of as-cast and annealed U-Pu-Zr alloys. Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) was used to measure phase transitions in the subsolidus regions (723−948 K) of three ternary U-Pu-Zr alloys with similar plutonium concentrations but various U/Zr ratios. Due to sluggish kinetics and narrow ranges of phase stability, complex peaks required the use of a Frazier-Suzuki peak fitting algorithm to deconvolute and calculate transition peak temperatures and enthalpies. We also identified trends of phase transition behavior by critically comparing our DSC data with previous phase transition measurements as well as historical and calculated phase equilibrium diagrams. In conclusion, this provides a critical approach for benchmarking and assessing the quality of new U-Pu-Zr phase equilibria data prior to its incorporation into nuclear material databases.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Measurements of the $^{5}D^{°}_{4}$–$^{5}P_{3}$ transition of singly ionized atomic iodine using intermodulated laser induced fluorescence

Iodine has been an element of recent interest for commercial use as fuel in electrostatic propulsion systems. A lingering problem when investigating ionized iodine using non-perturbative, laser-based techniques is determining the spectral width, i.e., the species temperature, of iodine. To this end, the hyperfine structure must be well understood to develop a spatially resolved diagnostic technique capable of ion flow and temperature measurements. Previous work investigated the lineshape of the transition between the $^{5}D^{°}_{4}$ and $^{5}P_{3}$ states of singly-ionized atomic iodine (I II) with laser induced fluorescence (LIF), but the hyperfine structure of the transition was unresolved in those measurements. In this work, an intermodulated LIF technique is used to measure an enhanced lineshape of the same I II transition. Here, a linear least squares fitting algorithm is used to fit the transition lineshape, where hyperfine transition locations and theorized relative amplitudes are constrained by theory. A lineshape model that incorporates hyperfine transition amplitude enhancement introduced from an intermodulated laser technique is implemented into the fitting function, as well as a nonlinear laser saturation effect. We report converged hyperfine coupling coefficients for these I II states.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

High-temperature order-disorder transitions in the skutterudites CoGe{sub 1.5}Q{sub 1.5} (Q=S, Te)

The temperature dependence of anion ordering in the skutterudites CoGe{sub 1.5}Q{sub 1.5} (Q=S, Te) has been investigated by powder neutron diffraction. Both materials adopt a rhombohedral structure at room temperature (space group R3{sup Macron} ) in which the anions are ordered trans to each other within Ge{sub 2}Q{sub 2} rings. In CoGe{sub 1.5}S{sub 1.5}, anion ordering is preserved up to the melting point of 950 Degree-Sign C. However, rhombohedral CoGe{sub 1.5}Te{sub 1.5} undergoes a phase transition at 610 Degree-Sign C involving a change to cubic symmetry (space group Im3{sup Macron }). In the high-temperature modification, there is a statistical distribution of anions over the available sites within the Ge{sub 2}Te{sub 2} rings. The structural transition involves a reduction in the degree of distortion of the Ge{sub 2}Te{sub 2} rings which progressively transform from a rhombus to a rectangular shape. The effect of this transition on the thermoelectric properties has been investigated. - Graphical abstract: Powder neutron diffraction reveals that the skutterudite CoGe{sub 1.5}Te{sub 1.5} undergoes a phase transition at 610 Degree-Sign C, involving the disordering of the anions within the Ge{sub 2}Te{sub 2} rings. Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer CoGe{sub 1.5}S{sub 1.5} retains an ordered skutterudite structure up to 950 Degree-Sign C. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer CoGe{sub 1.5}Te{sub 1.5} undergoes an order-disorder phase transition at 610 Degree-Sign C. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Below 610 Degree-Sign C, anions are arranged trans to each other within Ge{sub 2}Te{sub 2} rings. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Above 610 Degree-Sign C, anions are statistically distributed within the Ge{sub 2}Te{sub 2} rings. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The effect of the phase transition on the thermal conductivity is discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Structures and phases transition in hexylenediammonium pentachlorobismuthate (III) [NH{sub 3}(CH{sub 2}){sub 6}NH{sub 3}]BiCl{sub 5} crystal

The crystal structure of [NH{sub 3}(CH{sub 2}){sub 6}NH{sub 3}]BiCl{sub 5} was determined at: 223 K [P2{sub 1}2{sub 1}2{sub 1} (Z=4), a=7.788(1), b=13.886(2), c=13.972(2) Å], 308 K [P2{sub 1}/n (Z=8), a=19.972(3), b=7.772(2), c=20.166(3) Å, β=92.32(1)°] and 378 K [Pnma (Z=4), a=13911(2), b=7.834(7), c=14.457(2) Å]. It was consisted of isolated (BiCl{sub 5}{sup 2−}){sub n} anionic chains composed by distorted octahedra BiCl{sub 6}{sup 3−} sharing two corners and {sup +}NH{sub 3}(CH{sub 2}){sub 6}NH{sub 3}{sup +} cations placed in the free cavities between anionic chains. In the β phase, there are two crystallographically inequivalent cations and two one-dimensional anionic chains (BiCl{sub 5}{sup 2−}){sub n} in which BiCl{sub 6}{sup 3−} octahedra was doubly tilted and simply tilted. Two structural phase transitions at low and high temperatures α (P2{sub 1}2{sub 1}2{sub 1}, 223 K)↔β (P2{sub 1}/n, 308 K)↔γ (Pnma, 373 K) are observed and discussed. It was crystallographically showed that both anionic and cationic entities contribute to phase transitions mechanisms. The BiCl{sub 6}{sup 3−} octahedra were found to posses significant distortions on decreasing temperature and became more distorted in α (223 K) phase. It is argued that these deformations are caused by weak to moderate N--H···Cl hydrogen bonding. - Graphical abstract: Projection of the crystal structure of [NH{sub 3}(CH{sub 2}){sub 6}NH{sub 3}]BiCl{sub 5} down the a axis at 208 K. Highlights: ► The crystal shows two phase transitions: α(223 K)↔β(308 K)↔γ(373 K). ► A discontinuous transition may be occurred between α and β phases. ► The α↔β and β↔γ phase transitions are of first order. ► Both anionic and cationic motions contribute to phase transition mechanisms. ► The BiCl{sub 6}{sup 3−} octahedra showed significant distortions on decreasing temperature.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗