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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

Linking Excessive Heat with Daily Heat-Related Mortality over the Coterminous United States

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices, and a new heat stress variable developed as part of this research that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. Outputs are aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health interests. County-level statistics are made available to public health researchers by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER allows decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. Through CDC WONDER, users are able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

A Crop Yield Change Emulator for Use in GCAM and Similar Models: Persephone v1.0

Future changes in Earth system state will impact agricultural yields and, through these changed yields, can have profound impacts on the global economy. Global gridded crop models estimate the influence of these Earth system changes on future crop yields but are often too computationally intensive to dynamically couple into global multisector economic models, such as the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and other similar-in-scale models. Yet, generalizing a faster site-specific crop model’s results to be used globally will introduce inaccuracies, and the question of which model to use is unclear given the wide variation in yield response across crop models. To examine the feedback loop among socioeconomics, Earth system changes, and crop yield changes, rapidly generated yield responses with some quantification of crop response uncertainty are desirable. The Persephone v1.0 response functions presented in this work are based on the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) sensitivity test data set and are focused on providing GCAM and similar models with a tractable number of rapid to evaluate dynamic yield response functions corresponding to a range of the yield response sensitivities seen in the C3MP data set. With the Persephone response functions, a new variety of agricultural impact experiments will be open to GCAM and other economic models: for example, examining the economic impacts of a multi-year drought in a key agricultural region and how economic changes in response to the drought can, in turn, impact the drought.

Snyder, Abigail↗

SPACE: Three Decades of Spacecraft Power Systems Analysis with Fortran

The SPACE (System Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation) Fortran program developed at NASA Glenn Research Center has enabled power generation predictions and energy balance analyses for spacecraft electrical power systems (EPS) since 1988. SPACE was originally designed to analyze the EPS of the Space Station Freedom and continues to support certifications for visiting vehicles and extravehicular activities on the International Space Station today. Another version of SPACE currently supports design and mission planning operations for the Orion and Gateway vehicles as part of NASA’s Artemis program. In total, over 50 engineers have contributed to the development and use of SPACE on various platforms throughout its history. Ongoing code modernization efforts aim to generalize the program for use with different vehicles and configurations. While SPACE team analysts currently interact with the program via the command line, future development work also includes the creation of a graphical user interface for use by flight operations personnel. The SPACE code thus has a long legacy in spacecraft EPS analysis and will continue to play a critical role in future human spaceflight missions by leveraging the computational power of Fortran.

Fortran↗

Buffer-IPyC separation process in TRISO fuel particles simulated with Bison code

During High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) operation, tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated-particle fuel undergoes irradiation-induced changes in morphology and thermomechanical properties. Experimental results from the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification Program show, among other things, the mechanism of gap formation between the buffer and inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) layers, which could be explored further via computational simulations using the Bison code. Two simulation models were developed, the debonding restricted model, where no gap formation between buffer and IPyC layers is permitted, and the debonding enabled model, where the gap between those layers is created. The inputs of the simulated models are based on the irradiation conditions from the AGR-1 experiment. The research included simulations on spherical and aspherical fuel types. Under the specific temperatures and fluences of the AGR-1 irradiation experiment, and the Bison simulations, it was concluded that the most common scenario is a gap formation along the buffer-IPyC interface, while the least possible scenario is the situation where there is no gap formation at the buffer-IPyC junction. The computational results confirmed that the sphericity of the fuel influences the thickness of the gap that occurs at the buffer-IPyC junction, in a way that with increasing aspect ratio the gap thickness increases. The results obtained for spherical and aspherical fuel are nearly identical. Finally, performed simulations match conclusions observed from the AGR-1 experiment, which as such shows that the Bison code is a good computational method for simulating the TRISO fuel. Future simulations will include the validation of performed research and comparison of the results between Bison and PARFUME codes.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

CHEMREASONER: Heuristic Search over a Large Language Model’s Knowledge Space using Quantum-Chemical Feedback

The discovery of new catalysts is essential for the design of new and more efficient chemical processes in order to transition to a sustainable future. We introduce an AI-guided computational screening framework unifying linguistic reasoning with quantum-chemistry based feedback from 3D atomistic representations. Our approach formulates catalyst discovery as an uncertain environment where an agent actively searches for highly effective catalysts via the iterative combination of large language model (LLM)-derived hypotheses and atomistic graph neural network (GNN)-derived feedback. Identified catalysts in intermediate search steps undergo structural evaluation based on spatial orientation, reaction pathways, and stability. Scoring functions based on adsorption energies and barriers steer the exploration in the LLM's knowledge space toward energetically favorable, high-efficiency catalysts. We introduce planning methods that automatically guide the exploration without human input, providing competitive performance against expert-enumerated chemical descriptor-based implementations. By integrating language-guided reasoning with computational chemistry feedback, our work pioneers AI-accelerated, trustworthy catalyst discovery.

artificial intelligence↗

A Computational Theory for the Emergence of Grammatical Categories in Cortical Dynamics

A general agreement in psycholinguistics claims that syntax and meaning are unified precisely and very quickly during online sentence processing. Although several theories have advanced arguments regarding the neurocomputational bases of this phenomenon, we argue that these theories could potentially benefit by including neurophysiological data concerning cortical dynamics constraints in brain tissue. In addition, some theories promote the integration of complex optimization methods in neural tissue. In this paper we attempt to fill these gaps introducing a computational model inspired in the dynamics of cortical tissue. In our modeling approach, proximal afferent dendrites produce stochastic cellular activations, while distal dendritic branches–on the other hand–contribute independently to somatic depolarization by means of dendritic spikes, and finally, prediction failures produce massive firing events preventing formation of sparse distributed representations. The model presented in this paper combines semantic and coarse-grained syntactic constraints for each word in a sentence context until grammatically related word function discrimination emerges spontaneously by the sole correlation of lexical information from different sources without applying complex optimization methods. By means of support vector machine techniques, we show that the sparse activation features returned by our approach are well suited—bootstrapping from the features returned by Word Embedding mechanisms—to accomplish grammatical function classification of individual words in a sentence. In this way we develop a biologically guided computational explanation for linguistically relevant unification processes in cortex which connects psycholinguistics to neurobiological accounts of language. We also claim that the computational hypotheses established in this research could foster future work on biologically-inspired learning algorithms for natural language processing applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Computational requirements for on-orbit identification of space systems

For the future space systems, on-orbit identification (ID) capability will be required to complement on-orbit control, due to the fact that the dynamics of large space structures, spacecrafts, and antennas will not be known sufficiently from ground modeling and testing. The computational requirements for ID of flexible structures such as the space station (SS) or the large deployable reflectors (LDR) are however, extensive due to the large number of modes, sensors, and actuators. For these systems the ID algorithm operations need not be computed in real-time, only in near real-time, or an appropriate mission time. Consequently the space systems will need advanced processors and efficient parallel processing algorithm design and architectures to implement the identification algorithms in near real-time. The MAX computer currently being developed may handle such computational requirements. The purpose is to specify the on-board computational requirements for dynamic and static identification for large space structures. The computational requirements for six ID algorithms are presented in the context of three examples: the JPL/AFAL ground antenna facility, the space station (SS), and the large deployable reflector (LDR).

Hadaegh, Fred Y.↗

High-throughput cancer hypothesis testing with an integrated PhysiCell-EMEWS workflow

BackgroundCancer is a complex, multiscale dynamical system, with interactions between tumor cells and non-cancerous host systems. Therapies act on this combined cancer-host system, sometimes with unexpected results. Systematic investigation of mechanistic computational models can augment traditional laboratory and clinical studies, helping identify the factors driving a treatment's success or failure. However, given the uncertainties regarding the underlying biology, these multiscale computational models can take many potential forms, in addition to encompassing high-dimensional parameter spaces. Therefore, the exploration of these models is computationally challenging. We propose that integrating two existing technologiesone to aid the construction of multiscale agent-based models, the other developed to enhance model exploration and optimizationcan provide a computational means for high-throughput hypothesis testing, and eventually, optimization.ResultsIn this paper, we introduce a high throughput computing (HTC) framework that integrates a mechanistic 3-D multicellular simulator (PhysiCell) with an extreme-scale model exploration platform (EMEWS) to investigate high-dimensional parameter spaces. We show early results in applying PhysiCell-EMEWS to 3-D cancer immunotherapy and show insights on therapeutic failure. We describe a generalized PhysiCell-EMEWS workflow for high-throughput cancer hypothesis testing, where hundreds or thousands of mechanistic simulations are compared against data-driven error metrics to perform hypothesis optimization.ConclusionsWhile key notational and computational challenges remain, mechanistic agent-based models and high-throughput model exploration environments can be combined to systematically and rapidly explore key problems in cancer. These high-throughput computational experiments can improve our understanding of the underlying biology, drive future experiments, and ultimately inform clinical practice.

Agent-based model↗

Beyond Limber: efficient computation of angular power spectra for galaxy clustering and weak lensing

Angular two-point statistics of large-scale structure observables are important cosmological probes. To reach the high accuracy required by the statistical precision of future surveys, some of these statistics may need to be computed without the commonly employed Limber approximation; the exact computation however requires integration over Bessel functions, and a brute-force evaluation is slow to converge. Here, we present a new method based on our generalized FFTLog algorithm for the efficient computation of angular power spectra beyond the Limber approximation. The new method significantly simplifies the calculation and improves the numerical speed and stability. It is easily extended to handle integrals involving derivatives of Bessel functions, making it equally applicable to numerically more challenging cases such as contributions from redshift-space distortions and Doppler effects. We implement our method for galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing power spectra. We find that using the Limber approximation for galaxy clustering in future analyses like LSST Year 1 and DES Year 6 may cause significant biases in cosmological parameters, indicating that going beyond the Limber approximation is necessary for these analyses.

weak gravitational lensing↗

Reachability Subspace Exploration Using Continuation Methods

Reachability manifold computation suffers from the curse of dimensionality and for large state spaces is computationally intractable. This paper examines the use of continuation methods to address this issue by formulating the reachability sub-space manifold calculation into a number of initial valued problems. As a result of computing the reachability manifold for a subspace of interest, an exponential improvement in computational cost occurs. This concept is applied to a position subspace reachability problem of a spacecraft in a Keplerian orbit under maximum thrust constraints. Future work includes a comparison of the proposed method with computing reachability manifolds using viscosity solutions of the Hamilton Jacobi Bellman partial differential equation.

orbital mechanics↗

Computational Approaches to Simulation and Optimization of Global Aircraft Trajectories

This study examines three possible approaches to improving the speed in generating wind-optimal routes for air traffic at the national or global level. They are: (a) using the resources of a supercomputer, (b) running the computations on multiple commercially available computers and (c) implementing those same algorithms into NASA’s Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool (FACET) and compares those to a standard implementation run on a single CPU. Wind-optimal aircraft trajectories are computed using global air traffic schedules. The run time and wait time on the supercomputer for trajectory optimization using various numbers of CPUs ranging from 80 to 10,240 units are compared with the total computational time for running the same computation on a single desktop computer and on multiple commercially available computers for potential computational enhancement through parallel processing on the computer clusters. This study also re-implements the trajectory optimization algorithm for further reduction of computational time through algorithm modifications and integrates that with FACET to facilitate the use of the new features which calculate time-optimal routes between worldwide airport pairs in a wind field for use with existing FACET applications. The implementations of trajectory optimization algorithms use MATLAB, Python, and Java programming languages. The performance evaluations are done by comparing their computational efficiencies and based on the potential application of optimized trajectories. The paper shows that in the absence of special privileges on a supercomputer, a cluster of commercially available computers provides a good option for computing wind-optimal trajectories for national and global air traffic system studies.

Ng, Hok K.↗

Object Proxy Patterns for Accelerating Distributed Applications

Workflow and serverless frameworks have empowered new approaches to distributed application design by abstracting compute resources. However, their typically limited or one-size-fits-all support for advanced data flow patterns leaves optimization to the application programmer—optimization that becomes more difficult as data become larger. The transparent object proxy, which provides wide-area references that can resolve to data regardless of location, has been demonstrated as an effective low-level building block in such situations. Here we propose three high-level proxy-based programming patterns—distributed futures, streaming, and ownership—that make the power of the proxy pattern usable for more complex and dynamic distributed program structures. We motivate these patterns via careful review of application requirements and describe implementations of each pattern. As a result, we evaluate our implementations through a suite of benchmarks and by applying them in three meaningful scientific applications, in which we demonstrate substantial improvements in runtime, throughput, and memory usage.

Distributed Computing↗

CDDIS Data Center Summary for the 2003 IVS Annual Report

This report summarizes activities during the year 2003 and future plans of the Crustal Dynamics Data Information System (CDDIS) with respect to the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS). Included in this report are background information about the CDDIS, the computer architecture, staffing supporting the system, archive contents, and future plans for the CDDIS within the IVS.

Noll, Carey↗

CDDIS Data Center Summary for the 2004 IVS Annual Report

This report summarizes activities during the year 2004 and future plans of the Crustal Dynamics Data Information System (CDDIS) with respect to the International VLBI service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS). Included in this report are background information about the CDDIS, the computer architecture, staffing the support system, archive contents, and future plans for the CDDIS within the IVS.

Noll, Carey↗

CDDIS Data Center Summary for the IVS 2012 Annual Report

This report summarizes activities during 2012 and future plans of the Crustal Dynamics Data Information System (CDDIS) with respect to the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS). Included in this report are background information about the CDDIS, the computer architecture, staff supporting the system, archive contents, and future plans for the CDDIS within the IVS.

Noll, Carey↗

Future in ground base attitude support activities

The history of attitude support activities is traced. Support for a conventional mission and for the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) are compared. The trend is towards more onboard data processing, with the ground computer playing a supportive, rather than governing role. This eliminates the need for large amounts of data transfer, enabling rapid delivery of ancillary data products. In SMM, attitude is included in the telemetry stream. The need for ground support is unlikely to diminish in the near future, since onboard computations still have to be checked.

Werking, R. D.↗

Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)

Abstract. The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain the ice flow response to the individual global warming path. The model median for the observational period from 1992 to 2017 of the ice loss due to basal ice shelf melting is 10.2 mm, with a likely range between 5.2 and 21.3 mm. For the same period the Antarctic ice sheet lost mass equivalent to 7.4 mm of global sea level rise, with a standard deviation of 3.7 mm (Shepherd et al., 2018) including all processes, especially surface-mass-balance changes. For the unabated warming path, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), we obtain a median contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea level rise from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century of 17 cm, with a likely range (66th percentile around the mean) between 9 and 36 cm and a very likely range (90th percentile around the mean) between 6 and 58 cm. For the RCP2.6 warming path, which will keep the global mean temperature below 2 ∘C of global warming and is thus consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement, the procedure yields a median of 13 cm of global mean sea level contribution. The likely range for the RCP2.6 scenario is between 7 and 24 cm, and the very likely range is between 4 and 37 cm. The structural uncertainties in the method do not allow for an interpretation of any higher uncertainty percentiles. We provide projections for the five Antarctic regions and for each model and each scenario separately. The rate of sea level contribution is highest under the RCP8.5 scenario. The maximum within the 21st century of the median value is 4 cm per decade, with a likely range between 2 and 9 cm per decade and a very likely range between 1 and 14 cm per decade.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Signal and Power Integrity Design Methodology for High-Performance Flight Computing Systems

Computing capabilities of space systems have in-creased onboard performance by orders of magnitude with the use of radiation-tolerant field-programmable gate arrays (FPGA)and processors. The incorporation of signal and power integrity analysis with printed circuit board (PCB) design in reliable computing architectures for space systems has become critical to enable future mission capabilities. Developers launch high-performance processors into a breadth of orbits and missions, running varying applications that create challenges for designing reliable computing hardware. Specifically, for these designs, academic and industry research has focused on component radiation performance, fault mitigation, and reliable architectures. How-ever, other design parameters including electromagnetic interference (EMI), PCB stackup, signal integrity (SI), voltage regulator module (VRM) design, and power distribution network (PDN)are often deprioritized or disregarded as the design matures. Since these characteristics are becoming more significant in high-performance processor designs, this research presents a hardware design and analysis methodology for high-performance, space-computing systems that focuses on a holistic design approach and PDN reliability. While these challenges exist across all space hardware, the reduced PCB dimensions imposed by SmallSats and CubeSats introduce additional hurdles, specifically to VRM and decoupling design. By examining the relationship between the PDN and radiation performance, an analytical relationship is developed that incorporates Total Ionizing Dose and Single-Event Transients to ensure reliability throughout the mission duration. The presented design methodology is applied to the SpaceCube v3.0 Mini, an FPGA-based on-board science data processing system developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

Advanced avionics↗