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Meteorological, reference evapotranspiration and estimated transpiration data, July 2020-Dec 2021, Slate River Floodplain, Crested Butte, Colorado

This data package includes a time series of meteorological data (air temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, precipitation, wind speed, soil heat flux, incoming shortwave radiation, incoming longwave radiation, outgoing shortwave radiation and outgoing longwave radiation) from the Slate River floodplain outside Crested Butte, Colorado, a focus field site for the SLAC Floodplain Hydro-Biogeochemistry SFA. The data was generated as part of the work targeting the overarching research question for the SLAC SFA: How do ubiquitous subsurface interfaces mediate molecular-scale biogeochemical processes and groundwater quality in floodplains and watersheds? The package also includes reference evapotranspiration calculated via the Penman-Monteith equation and an estimate of willow (Salix spp.) evapotranspiration using the method of Irmak et al., J. Hydrology, 2013. Due to two malfunctioning sensors (incoming shortwave radiation from Oct 2020-May 2021 and incoming longwave radiation from May 2021-March 2022), observed net radiation and calculated evapotranspiration are only included from July-October 2020. However, users may be able to extend calculated evapotranspiration using estimates of these two parameters from other sources. Both sensors have been replaced and data beyond 2021 be uploaded to this repository when it is available.Within the data package, "FLMD.csv" describes file-level metadata and "dd.csv" defines column headers and universal terms across the dataset. The data package includes 3 "*data.csv" files, two for meteorological data for 2020 and 2021 and one for reference evapotranspiration and transpiration data from 2020 ("SLT_OBJ2_PenmanMonteith_2020_data.csv"). Each "*data.csv" file of meteorological data has a corresponding "*_InstallationMethods.csv" file that describes the location, sensor model, sensor serial number and other metadata corresponding to each measured parameter. We also include a Jupyter notebook ("PenmanMonteithET_Calculations.ipynb") that details the assumptions and equations used to calculate daily and hourly reference evapotranspiration and daily willow transpiration from raw meteorological data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

REFLECTION OF PROPAGATING SLOW MAGNETO-ACOUSTIC WAVES IN HOT CORONAL LOOPS: MULTI-INSTRUMENT OBSERVATIONS AND NUMERICAL MODELING

Slow MHD waves are important tools for understanding coronal structures and dynamics. In this paper, we report a number of observations from the X-Ray Telescope (XRT) on board HINODE and Solar Dynamic Observatory /Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) of reflecting longitudinal waves in hot coronal loops. To our knowledge, this is the first report of this kind as seen from the XRT and simultaneously with the AIA. The wave appears after a micro-flare occurs at one of the footpoints. We estimate the density and temperature of the loop plasma by performing differential emission measure (DEM) analysis on the AIA image sequence. The estimated speed of propagation is comparable to or lower than the local sound speed, suggesting it to be a propagating slow wave. The intensity perturbation amplitude, in every case, falls very rapidly as the perturbation moves along the loop and eventually vanishes after one or more reflections. To check the consistency of such reflection signatures with the obtained loop parameters, we perform a 2.5D MHD simulation, which uses the parameters obtained from our observation as inputs, and perform forward modeling to synthesize AIA 94 Å images. Analyzing the synthesized images, we obtain the same properties of the observables as for the real observation. From the analysis we conclude that a footpoint heating can generate a slow wave which then reflects back and forth in the coronal loop before fading. Our analysis of the simulated data shows that the main agent for this damping is anisotropic thermal conduction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Recent Updates in the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Algorithm

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission generates, among other data sets, the Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product. The L4_SM data are published with a mean latency of ~2.5 days from the time of observation and provide global, three-hourly, 9-km resolution estimates of surface and root-zone soil moisture and related land surface states and fluxes. The L4_SM algorithm is based on the assimilation of SMAP radiometer brightness temperature observations into the NASA Catchment land surface model using a spatially distributed ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In 2018, the L4_SM algorithm was upgraded from Version 3 to Version 4. Underlying the new version is a revised modeling system that includes improved input parameter datasets for land cover, topography, and vegetation height that are based on recent, high-quality, space-borne remote sensing observations. Additionally, SMAP Level-2 soil moisture retrievals and in situ soil moisture measurements were used to calibrate a particular Catchment model parameter that governs the recharge of surface soil moisture from below under non-equilibrium conditions, which brings the model's surface soil moisture more in line with the SMAP Level-2 and in situ soil moisture. Moreover, the calibration of the assimilated SMAP brightness temperatures changed substantially from Version 3 to Version 4, and the "catchment deficit" model variable was removed from the EnKF state vector to avoid degrading the model's groundwater estimates.Considerable effort went into the version upgrade, creating an expectation that the new version is improved over the old version. Indeed, some aspects of the new version are clearly better. However, other aspects are not. In this presentation we summarize the skill of the new and old versions vs. independent in situ measurements and in terms of data assimilation diagnostics, including, for example, the statistics of the (soil moisture) analysis increments and the observation-minus-forecast (brightness temperatures) residuals. We share our experience with trying to improve to the L4_SM product and the lessons learned from the effort.

Reichle, Rolf H.↗

Adaptive-Sweep Algorithm for Spacecraft Carrier Acquisition and Tracking: System Analysis and Implementation

This paper presents an adaptive-sweep algorithm that can be used in conjunction with a Phased-Lock Loop to acquire and track the carrier of a Binary Phase-shift Keying signal with residual carrier. This algorithm is useful in proximity links where no Doppler pre-compensation is available at the transmitter, and allows the receiver to acquire the incoming carrier even if the experienced Doppler shift is several orders of magnitude larger than the PLL bandwidth. Other applications for this algorithm include Multiple Uplink per Antenna at the Deep Space Network, and generation of observables (Doppler shift, Doppler rate, range rate) for in-situ navigation purposes. This paper enhances a previously presented adaptive-sweep algorithm and its performance analysis in two fronts. First, the algorithm now uses the direction function to automatically estimate the required frequency jump to achieve PLL lock. This enables a fully adaptive-sweep scheme in which system implementer does not need to manually select thresholds. On the other hand, we study the system performance in the presence of Additive White Gaussian Noise and derive necessary conditions for the system to operate at low signal-to-noise conditions. This allows us to create design rules that specify all parameters of the algorithm given a set of system-level requirements. To test the performance of the proposed algorithm, we implement it in GNU Radio, an open-source Software-Defined Radio that interfaces with several commercial radio peripherals. We use this implementation to demonstrate carrier lock and quantify system performance under different noise conditions. We also test the algorithm using open-loop recordings of two downlinks between the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and the Deep Space Network. We show that even after large frequency jumps (tens of kHz), the proposed system is able to rapidly reacquire the carrier and continue operation.

Divsalar, Dariush↗

Validation and Benchmarking of CTF For Single- And Two-Phase Flow Using VIPRE-01

As part of the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL), the subchannel code CTF is being used for single- and two-phase flow analysis under light water reactor operating conditions. Accurate determination of flow distribution, pressure drop, and void content is crucial for prediction of margins to thermal crisis and neutronic feedback, and therefore more efficient plant performance. In preparation for the intended applications, CTF has been validated against experimental facilities comprising the General Electric (GE) 3×3 bundle, the BWR Full-size Fine-mesh Bundle Tests (BFBT), the RISO tube, and the PWR Subchannel and Bundle Tests (PSBT). Meanwhile, the licensed and industrially well-recognized subchannel code VIPRE-01 is used to generate a baseline set of simulations for the targeted tests, and solution parameters are compared to CTF results. The flow split verification problem and single-phase GE 3×3 result in essentially perfect agreement between CTF and VIPRE-01. For two-phase GE 3×3 cases, flow and quality discrepancies arise in the annular-mist flow regime, yet significant improvement is observed in CTF when void drift and two-phase turbulent mixing enhancement are considered. BFBT pressure drop benchmark shows close agreement between predicted and measured results in general, although considerable over-prediction of CTF is observed at relatively high void locations of the facility. This over-estimation tendency is confirmed by RISO cases. While overall statistics are satisfactory, the BFBT bubbly/slug/churn-turbulent flow void contents are markedly over-predicted by CTF, the latter being consistent with PSBT results. Such two-phase closure terms in CTF as turbulent mixing, interfacial and wall friction, and subcooled boiling heat transfer need further improvement using more mechanistic models and high-to-low calibration techniques

Zhao, X↗

Modeling household-level party composition behavior for multiparty activities: a random parameter nested logit modeling approach

This study presents findings of a household-level party composition model for multiparty activities. It exploits data from a comprehensive Household Travel Survey conducted by Chicago Metropolitan Agency of Planning. The study estimates a random parameter nested logit model to capture households’ unobserved preference heterogeneity and non-proportional substitution patterns in terms of activity party composition for multiparty activities. A wide variety of household demographics, activity attributes and residential neighborhood characteristics are examined in this paper. The magnitude of the impacts of the determinants are tested in this study by analyzing the elasticity of the variables, which suggests that household demographics and attributes of the multiparty activities have significant effects on the household-level activity party composition. Residential neighborhood characteristics, although somewhat less impactful, still play a meaningful role. This model will be implemented within the POLARIS transportation systems simulator to improve the activity generation modeling workflow, and the prediction accuracy of various activity-travel components.

activity party composition↗

Cross-machine comparison of runaway electron generation during tokamak start-up for extrapolation to ITER

A cross-machine comparison of global parameters that determine the runaway electron (RE) generation and loss process during tokamak start-up was carried out with the aim to extrapolate these to ITER. The study found that all considered discharges, also those that do not show signs of RE, are non-thermal at the start, i.e. have a streaming parameter larger than 0.1. During the current ramp-up the electric field, E, remains above the critical value, E c , that allows RE in the plasma. The distinction to be made is not if RE can form but, if sufficient RE can form fast enough such that they are detected or start to dominate the dynamics of the tokamak discharge. The dynamics of the value of E, density and temperature during tokamak are key to the formation of RE. It was found that larger devices operate with E closer to E c , due to their higher temperatures, hence the RE generation is relatively slower. The slower time scales for the formation of RE, estimated to be of the order of 100s of ms in ITER simplifies the development of avoidance schemes. The RE confinement time is also an important determinant of the entire process and is found to increase with the device size. The study also revealed that drift orbit losses, a mechanism often attributed as the main RE loss mechanism during the early tokamak discharge, are actually more difficult to achieve. RE losses might be more likely attributed to RE diffusion due to magnetic turbulence.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Towards constraining cosmological parameters with SPT-3G observations of 25% of the sky

The South Pole Telescope (SPT), using its third-generation camera, SPT-3G, is conducting observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) in temperature and polarization across approximately 10 000 deg$^2$ of the sky at 95, 150, and 220 GHz. This comprehensive dataset should yield stringent constraints on cosmological parameters. In this work, we explore its potential to address the Hubble tension by forecasting constraints from temperature, polarization, and CMB lensing on early dark energy (EDE) and the variation in electron mass in spatially flat and curved universes. For this purpose, we investigate first whether analyzing the distinct SPT-3G observation fields independently, as opposed to as a single, unified region, results in a loss of information relevant to cosmological parameter estimation. We develop a realistic temperature and polarization likelihood pipeline capable of analyzing these fields in these two ways, and subsequently forecast constraints on cosmological parameters. Our findings indicate that any loss of constraining power from analyzing the fields separately is primarily concentrated at low multipoles ($\ell$ < 50) and the overall impact on the relative uncertainty on standard $Λ$ cold dark matter parameters is minimal (< 3%). Our forecasts suggest that SPT-3G data should improve by more than a factor of 90 and 190 the figure of merit of the EDE and the varying electron mass models, respectively, when combined with Planck data. The likelihood pipeline developed and used in this work is made publicly available online.

Vitrier, A. [Paris, Inst. Astrophys.]↗

Approximate Boltzmann distributions in quantum approximate optimization

Approaches to compute or estimate the output probability distributions from the quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) are needed to assess the likelihood it will obtain a quantum computational advantage. We analyze output from QAOA circuits solving 7200 random MaxCut instances, with $n$ = 14–23 qubits and depth parameter $p$ ≤ 12 and find that the average basis state probabilities follow approximate Boltzmann distributions: The average probabilities scale exponentially with their energy (cut value), with a peak at the optimal solution. Furthermore, we describe the rate of exponential scaling or effective temperature in terms of a series with a leading-order term $T$ ~ $C$ min /$n$ $\sqrt{p}$, with $C$ min the optimal solution energy. Using this scaling, we generate approximate output distributions with up to 38 qubits and find these give accurate accounts of important performance metrics in cases we can simulate exactly.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

An Economics-by-Design Approach Applied to a Heat Pipe Microreactor Concept

Microreactors present a potential paradigm shift in the nuclear industry. Emphasis thus far has been on large-scale multi-billion-dollar projects that cater solely to grid electricity market. These projects can be challenging to finance and execute. On the other hand, microreactors are intended to target a wide variety of smaller niche markets and are expected to be factory-fabricated and more readily deployable. While diseconomies of scale for microreactors may tend to raise their costs per energy output (MWh) relative to large nuclear plants, offsetting gains can be expected from standardization, simplification, passive safety, lower radionuclide inventories, factory fabrication, fast installation, and low financing costs. To adequately assess these contributions, designers should have a different perspective on cost drivers than for large nuclear plants and can utilize novel approaches for systematic cost reduction. To account for these important aspects of microreactors, this report proposes an economics-by-design approach that places economic considerations at the center of the design process. The methodology builds on existing frameworks such as design-to-cost and value engineering, expanding them to new markets (beyond the grid), new attributes (beyond costs alone), and introducing the approach at earlier points in the design cycle. Design parameters and technical specifications are systematically evaluated until costs meet market entry points, while also providing the high-priority performance attributes of the particular use case. Determining first-order estimates for different components early in the process enables designers to focus R&D efforts on the biggest overall cost contributors and components with the most cost uncertainty. The analysis is always guided by market needs and threshold prices. In addition to microreactors, the approach is expected to be useful for other classes of nuclear reactors as well. The analysis was applied to a concept found in the open literature (the Design A heat-pipe reactor). A comprehensive bottom-up estimate was generated by leveraging a new microreactor-specific code of accounts and a range of cost equations. The initial estimate for levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) unsurprisingly exceeded market ranges since the use case had prioritized technological readiness over economic considerations in design choices. An alternate concept was then proposed, with various assumptions/targets made to reduce the largest cost contributors. Changes in the neutron spectrum, the power output, and building structures were found to make even the first-of-a-kind of this modified concept competitive with diesel generation in some remote communities. Learning rate (LR) assumptions indicated cost reductions achieved from sequential unit deployments could expand the range of competitiveness to include additional markets as deployments proceed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Buoyancy-driven melt segregation in the earth's moon. I - Numerical results

The densities of lunar mare magmas have been estimated at liquidus temperatures for pressures from 0 to 47 kbar (0.4 GPa; center of the moon) using a third-order Birch-Murnaghan equation and compositionally dependent parameters from Large and Carmichael (1987). Results on primary magmatic compositions represented by pristine volcanic glasses suggest that the density contrast between very-high-Ti melts and their liquidus olivines may approach zero at pressures of about 25 kbar (2.5 GPa). Since this is the pressure regime of the mantle source regions for these magmas, a compositional limit of eruptability for mare liquids may exist that is similar to the highest Ti melt yet observed among the lunar samples. Although the moon may have generated magmas having greater than 16.4 wt pct TiO2, those melts would probably not have reached the lunar surface due to their high densities, and may have even sunk deeper into the moon's interior as negatively buoyant diapirs. This process may have been important for assimilative interactions in the lunar mantle. The phenomenon of melt/solid density crossover may therefore occur not only in large terrestrial-type objects but also in small objects where, despite low pressures, the range of melt compositions is extreme.

Delano, J. W.↗

Calibration Software for Use with Jurassicprok

The Jurassicprok Interferometric Calibration Software (also called "Calibration Processor" or simply "CP") estimates the calibration parameters of an airborne synthetic-aperture-radar (SAR) system, the raw measurement data of which are processed by the Jurassicprok software described in the preceding article. Calibration parameters estimated by CP include time delays, baseline offsets, phase screens, and radiometric offsets. CP examines raw radar-pulse data, single-look complex image data, and digital elevation map data. For each type of data, CP compares the actual values with values expected on the basis of ground-truth data. CP then converts the differences between the actual and expected values into updates for the calibration parameters in an interferometric calibration file (ICF) and a radiometric calibration file (RCF) for the particular SAR system. The updated ICF and RCF are used as inputs to both Jurassicprok and to the companion Motion Measurement Processor software (described in the following article) for use in generating calibrated digital elevation maps.

Chapin, Elaine↗

Initial Assessment for a Generic Horizontal Fissile Solution Vessel with an Electron Beam-based Neutron Generator

The LANL NA-23 program office has provided an extensive design study for a medical isotope (i.e. Molybdenum-99) production facility based on a fissile solution vessel with various accelerator technologies. These concept designs and associated R&D have provided affordable pathways for system optimization for industry counter partner such as SHINE and Global Medial Isotope Supply (GMIS). A horizontal fissile solution vessel design with an electron beam (E-beam) accelerator is proposed and studied with modeling capabilities developed for previous concepts (i.e. a generic vertical fissile solution vessel with a deuterium-tritium (DT) accelerator). An initial system assessment is performed by estimating theoretical Molybdenum-99 production yield with MCNP6.2. A baseline system configuration is constructed based on early design discussions between LANL and GMIS. Since only an initial design concept is available at this stage, all associated system design parameters can be adjusted to fit the best system performance characteristics. In this work, unlike previous vertical system studies, the cooling configuration of the horizontal fissile solution vessel is not considered, and only fission reactions are used to quantify the theoretical product yield. Five parametric design studies are proposed, preliminary results are briefly reported, and extended design studies beyond what is proposed here are also discussed. It is concluded that a comprehensive system analysis via multiphysics coupled calculation developed by LANL should be further conducted for the final design.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A Spectacular Viscoelastic Model Calibration for 828/D230/Alox Generated from Legacy Sandia Data

The nonlinear viscoelastic Spectacular model is calibrated to the thermo-mechanical behavior of 828/D230/Alox with an alox volume fraction of 20 %. Legacy experimental data from Sandia’s polymer properties database (PPD) is used to calibrate the model. Based on known densities of the epoxy 828/D230 and the alox filler, the alox volume fractions listed on the PPD were likely reported incorrectly. The alox volume fractions are recalculated here. Using the recalculated alox volume fractions, the PPD contains experimental data for 828/D230/Alox with alox volume fractions of 16 %, 24 %, and 33 %, so the thermo-mechanical behavior at 20 % alox volume fraction is estimated by interpolating between the bounding cases of of 16 % and 24 %. Because the Spectacularmodel can be fairly challenging to calibrate, the calibration procedure is described in detail. Several of the calibration steps involve inverse parameter identification, where an experiment is simulated and parameters are iteratively updated until the model response matches the experimental data. As the PPD does not fully describe all experimental procedures, the experimental simulations use assumed thermal and mechanical loading rates that are typical for the viscoelastic characterization of epoxies. Spectacular uses four independent relaxation functions related to volumetric (ƒ 1 ), shear (ƒ 2 ), thermal strain (ƒ 3 ), and thermal relaxations (ƒ 4 ). The previous SPEC model form, also known as the universal_polymer model, uses two independent relaxation functions related to volumetric and thermal relaxation (ƒ ν = ƒ 1 = ƒ 3 = ƒ 4 ) and shear relaxation (ƒ s = ƒ 2 ). The two constitutive choices are briefly evaluated here, where it is found that the four relaxation function approach of Spectacular was better suited for fitting the coefficient of thermal expansion during both heating and cooling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Coupled Data Assimilation for Integrated Earth System Analysis and Prediction: Goals, Challenges, and Recommendations

The purpose of this report is to identify fundamental issues for coupled data assimilation (CDA), such as gaps in science and limitations in forecasting systems, in order to provide guidance to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on how to facilitate more rapid progress internationally. Coupled Earth system modeling provides the opportunity to extend skillful atmospheric forecasts beyond the traditional two-week barrier by extracting skill from low-frequency state components such as the land, ocean, and sea ice. More generally, coupled models are needed to support seamless prediction systems that span timescales from weather, subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), multiyear, and decadal. Therefore, initialization methods are needed for coupled Earth system models, either applied to each individual component (called Weakly Coupled Data Assimilation - WCDA) or applied the coupled Earth system model as a whole (called Strongly Coupled Data Assimilation - SCDA). Using CDA, in which model forecasts and potentially the state estimation are performed jointly, each model domain benefits from observations in other domains either directly using error covariance information known at the time of the analysis (SCDA), or indirectly through flux interactions at the model boundaries (WCDA). Because the non-atmospheric domains are generally under-observed compared to the atmosphere, CDA provides a significant advantage over single-domain analyses. Next, we provide a synopsis of goals, challenges, and recommendations to advance CDA: Goals: (a) Extend predictive skill beyond the current capability of NWP (e.g. as demonstrated by improving forecast skill scores), (b) produce physically consistent initial conditions for coupled numerical prediction systems and reanalyses (including consistent fluxes at the domain interfaces), (c) make best use of existing observations by allowing observations from each domain to influence and improve the full earth system analysis, (d) develop a robust observation-based identification and understanding of mechanisms that determine the variability of weather and climate, (e) identify critical weaknesses in coupled models and the earth observing system, (f) generate full-field estimates of unobserved or sparsely observed variables, (g) improve the estimation of the external forcings causing changes to climate, (h) transition successes from idealized CDA experiments to real-world applications. Challenges: (a) Modeling at the interfaces between interacting components of coupled Earth system models may be inadequate for estimating uncertainty or error covariances between domains, (b) current data assimilation methods may be insufficient to simultaneously analyze domains containing multiple spatiotemporal scales of interest, (c) there is no standardization of observation data or their delivery systems across domains, (d) the size and complexity of many large-scale coupled Earth system models makes it is difficult to accurately represent uncertainty due to model parameters and coupling parameters, (e) model errors lead to local biases that can transfer between the different Earth system components and lead to coupled model biases and long-term model drift, (e) information propagation across model components with different spatiotemporal scales is extremely complicated, and must be improved in current coupled modeling frameworks, (h) there is insufficient knowledge on how to represent evolving errors in non-atmospheric model components (e.g. as sea ice, land and ocean) on the timescales of NWP.

CDA↗

Assessing pellet-clad interaction with VERA: WBN1, cycles 6-7

The Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) aims to provide high fidelity simulations of nuclear reactors through the development of the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA). One of the primary goals of CASL is to estimate local cladding failure through pellet-clad interaction (PCI). While this capability is being pursued through several different approaches, the procedure presented here focuses on running independent fuel performance calculations with the BISON fuel performance code being developed by Idaho National Laboratory using the multicycle output data from coupled neutron transport/thermal-hydraulics simulations generated by MPACT, CTF, and MAMBA. This type of approach is consistent with traditional fuel performance analysis methods, where the fuel performance analyses are typically separate from core simulation analyses. Recent work simulating 12 cycles of Watts Bar Unit 1 (WBN1) with VERA are capitalized upon, and stand-alone quarter-core BISON results can be obtained for several cycles, assessing parameters of interest to PCI (e.g., maximum centerline fuel temperature, maximum clad hoop stress, minimum gap thickness, and cumulative damage index). This is accomplished by using the coupled neutronics/thermal-hydraulics output power and temperature distributions as inputs for each BISON fuel rod case. Building on previous work which demonstrated this capability for Cycles 1 through 3, this paper presents the results for Cycles 6 and 7. Cycle 7 is of particular interest because significant CRUD-induced power shift was observed. While the current results do not immediately indicate that any rods are at an extreme risk of failure, further analysis on rods highlighted by this work may shed additional light on the likelihood of failure. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Radiative Susceptibility of Cloudy Atmospheres to Droplet Number Perturbations: 2. Global analysis from MODIS

Global distributions of albedo susceptibility for areas covered by liquid clouds are presented for 4 months in 2005. The susceptibility estimates are based on expanded definitions presented in a companion paper and include relative cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) changes, perturbations in cloud droplet asymmetry parameter and single-scattering albedo, atmospheric/surface effects, and incorporation of the full solar spectrum. The cloud properties (optical thickness and effective radius) used as input in the susceptibility calculations come from MODIS Terra and Aqua Collection 5 gridded data. Geographical distributions of susceptibility corresponding to absolute ( absolute cloud susceptibility ) and relative ( relative cloud susceptibility ) CDNC changes are markedly different indicating that the detailed nature of the cloud microphysical perturbation is important for determining the radiative forcing associated with the first indirect aerosol effect. However, both types of susceptibility exhibit common characteristics such as significant reductions when perturbations in single-scattering properties are omitted, significant increases when atmospheric absorption and surface albedo effects are ignored, and the tendency to decrease with latitude, to be higher over ocean than over land, and to be statistically similar between the morning and afternoon MODIS overpasses. The satellite-based susceptibility analysis helps elucidate the role of present-day cloud and land surface properties in indirect aerosol forcing responses. Our realistic yet moderate CDNC perturbations yield forcings on the order of 1-2 W/sq m for cloud optical property distributions and land surface spectral albedos observed by MODIS. Since susceptibilities can potentially be computed from model fields, these results have practical application in assessing the reasonableness of model-generated estimates of the aerosol indirect radiative forcing.

Oreopoulos, Lazaros↗

Building a Predictive Fission Rate Model

Nuclear fission, and specifically the rate at which fission occurs compared to other types of reactions, is a crucial piece in the puzzle of the origin of the elements in the universe. Fission in astrophysical environments involves rare and exotic nuclei that cannot be studied in the laboratory, and we must therefore rely on model calculations. Yet all fission rates calculated today use a phenomenological (theoretical) model that was formulated in 1939, updated in 1953, and has remained essentially unchanged. Because the model contains many adjustable parameters, it has been successfully used to fit existing data, but in turn has very limited predictive power in cases where the data are poor or nonexistent. The goal of this project was to develop a novel approach that moves away from phenomenology to construct a fission-rate model built from microscopic ingredients: protons, neutrons, and their mutual interactions. The approach adopted in this work relied on the construction of a discrete basis of mean-field states that form paths through scission. The calculations were performed within the framework of the generator coordinate method. The project has produced a methodology for constructing the discrete basis states and identifying likely fission paths, as well as estimates of the energy partition between fragments and a formalism to calculate fission rates based on Fermi’s golden rule.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗