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NASA NTRS2022

Uncertainty Models for the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method of Uncertainty Quantification; Analysis

There is some level of uncertainty in every finite element model (FEM), which flows to a level of uncertainty in predicted results. The purpose of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is to provide statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. This is distinct from model updating, which attempts to modify models to improve their accuracy. UQ does not improve the accuracy of models, but accepts that the models are inherently inaccurate and attempts to quantify the impact of that inaccuracy on predicted results. Previously, an alternate method for UQ, called the Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method, was applied to Space Launch System (SLS) Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components to predict system-level statistics for launch vehicle attitude control transfer functions and core stage section loads due to buffet. The HPV method combines a parametric variation of the HCB fixed-interface (FI) modal frequencies with a nonparametric variation (NPV) method that randomly varies the HCB mass and stiffness matrices as Wishart random matrix distributions using random matrix theory (RMT). Alternatively, the most common method for modeling uncertainty in the structural dynamics community is a parametric approach, which varies physical parameters in the model. However, there are several disadvantages associated with the parametric method. Determining a reduced set of parameters that have a significant impact on the system response can be time consuming, and the selected parameter probability distributions are rarely reliably known. Therefore, in practice, the parameters are surrogates for the actual errors, and the link to parameter uncertainty is unknown. Another major drawback is that the uncertainty that can be represented is limited to the form of the nominal FEM. It is the experience of the authors that based on numerous aerospace programs, almost all FEM errors are in form rather than parameter values. This hypothesis is supported by the observation of the authors that it is almost never possible to ‘tune’ a FEM to match modal test results by only modifying model parameters. Model-form uncertainty cannot be directly represented by FEM input parameters nor included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using RMT, where a probability distribution is developed for the matrix ensemble of interest. The major advantage of the NPV method is that it covers errors in model form. The HPV method anchors uncertainty at the HCB component level to component modal test results by matching the HCB and test modes based on mode descriptions or other methods, and then applying differing levels of frequency variation. The specific variations depend on the confidence to which a component FEM has been validated through modal testing. The NPV method is layered on the frequency variation to match modal test self-orthogonality and cross-orthogonality (XO) results. Once the component uncertainty models are identified, they are assembled, and the uncertainty is propagated to the system level using a Monte Carlo (MC) analysis approach that generates statistics for system-level predictions This provides a UQ method that can be traced to test data, which can be updated as additional data and improved correlated models become available. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The second example is an application to a component that is design specific to the SLS. Based on this work and other assessments, the HPV method provides another tool to the toolset used for complex system UQ analysis. From experience gathered to date using the HPV method, additional design specific applications must be investigated to provide further confidence in the validity of the HPV method of UQ analysis.

Uncertainty quantification↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predictive links between microbial communities and biological oxygen utilization in the Arctic Ocean

Microbial metabolism influences rates of net community production (NCP), exerting a direct biological control on marine oxygen and carbon fluxes. In the Arctic, it is increasingly important to understand and quantify this process, as ecological and oceanographic conditions shift due to changing climate. Here, we describe potential ecological links between pelagic microbial diversity and an NCP precursor, biological oxygen utilization, using machine learning and paired observations of community structure and metabolic activity from a seasonally and spatially variable transect of the Arctic Ocean (2019–2020 MOSAiC Expedition). Community structure was determined using 16S (prokaryotic) and 18S (eukaryotic) rRNA gene amplicon sequencing, and metabolic activity was derived from ΔO 2 /Ar. Using self-organizing maps, we identified clear successional patterns in observed microbial community structure that were seasonally driven in the upper ocean and vertically stratified with depth. Metabolic activity was also stratified, with a primarily net heterotrophic water column (median −1.5% biological oxygen saturation), excepting periodic oxygen supersaturation (maximum: 13.6%) within the mixed layer. Using DNA sequences as predictor variables, we then constructed a random forest regression model that reliably reconstructed biological oxygen concentrations (root mean squared error = 4.14 μmol kg −1 ). Top predictors from this model were from heterotrophic (bacteria) or potentially mixotrophic (dinoflagellate) taxa. These analyses highlight biologically driven diagnostic tools that can be used to expand biogeochemical datasets and improve the microbial perspectives and metabolisms represented in ecological models of net productivity and carbon flux in a changing Arctic Ocean.

Chamberlain, Emelia J. [Univ. of San Diego, San Di↗

DOE OSTI2017

Life cycle assessment based environmental impact estimation model for pre-stressed concrete beam bridge in the early design phase

The late rise in global concern for environmental issues such as global warming and air pollution is accentuating the need for environmental assessments in the construction industry. Promptly evaluating the environmental loads of the various design alternatives during the early stages of a construction project and adopting the most environmentally sustainable candidate is therefore of large importance. Yet, research on the early evaluation of a construction project's environmental load in order to aid the decision making process is hitherto lacking. In light of this dilemma, this study proposes a model for estimating the environmental load by employing only the most basic information accessible during the early design phases of a project for the pre-stressed concrete (PSC) beam bridge, the most common bridge structure. Firstly, a life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted on the data from 99 bridges by integrating the bills of quantities (BOQ) with a life cycle inventory (LCI) database. The processed data was then utilized to construct a case based reasoning (CBR) model for estimating the environmental load. The accuracy of the estimation model was then validated using five test cases; the model's mean absolute error rates (MAER) for the total environmental load was calculated as 7.09%. Such test results were shown to be superior compared to those obtained from a multiple-regression based model and a slab area base-unit analysis model. Henceforth application of this model during the early stages of a project is expected to highly complement environmentally friendly designs and construction by facilitating the swift evaluation of the environmental load from multiple standpoints. - Highlights: • This study is to develop the model of assessing the environmental impacts on LCA. • Bills of quantity from completed designs of PSC Beam were linked with the LCI DB. • Previous cases were used to estimate the environmental load of new case by CBR model. • CBR model produces more accurate estimations (7.09%) than other conventional models. • This study supports decision making process in the early stage of a new construction case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Redshift-space streaming velocity effects on the Lyman- α forest baryon acoustic oscillation scale

The baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) scale acts as a standard ruler for measuring cosmological distances and has therefore emerged as a leading probe of cosmic expansion history. However, any physical effect that alters the length of the ruler can lead to a bias in our determination of distance and expansion rate. One of these physical effects is the streaming velocity, the relative velocity between baryons and dark matter in the early Universe, which couples to the BAO scale due to their common origin in acoustic waves at recombination. In this work, we investigate the impact of streaming velocity on the BAO feature of the Lyman- α forest auto-power spectrum, one of the main tracers being used by the recently commissioned Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). To do this, we develop a perturbative model for Lyman- α flux fluctuations which is complete to second order for a certain set of fields, and applicable to any redshift-space tracer of structure since it is based only on symmetry considerations. We find that there are 8 biasing coefficients through second order. We find streaming velocity-induced shifts in the BAO scale of 0.081%–0.149% (transverse direction) and 0.053%–0.058% (radial direction), depending on the model for the biasing coefficients used. These are smaller than, but not negligible compared to, the DESI Lyman- α BAO error budget, which is 0.46% on the overall scale. Overall, the sensitivity of these results to our choice of bias parameters underscores the need for future work to measure the higher-order biasing coefficients from simulations, especially for future experiments beyond DESI.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Glass formulation and composition optimization with property models: A review

Abstract Glass is a versatile material with a remarkable history and many practical applications. It plays a critical role in our everyday lives, the advancement of science, and the development of many technologies. The Edisonian type trial‐and‐error method was commonly used for conventional design of glass compositions, which was time‐consuming and costly. With the urgent need to develop new glass compositions for technology applications rapidly, it has become necessary to develop precise property models with predictive powers using large databases and efficient formulation approaches. This paper reviews the design of glass compositions using these analytical and numerical models of composition–structure–property relations of glasses, some based on large databases and machine learning approaches. Aspects of data collection, model fitting, feature extraction, model evaluation, and uncertainty quantification will be covered. Furthermore, advances in the glass optimization framework and available tools are summarized with examples. The outlook and perspective for further glass property model development and formulation approaches are discussed.

Lu, Xiaonan↗

DOE OSTI2019

WSBP/NWBP small-world neural network and its performance for wind power forecasting

A small-world neural network has stronger generalization ability with high transfer efficiency than that of the regular neural networks. This paper presents two novel small-world neural networks, the Watts-Strogatz small-world based on a BP neural network (WSBP) and a Newman-Watts small-world neural network based on a BP neural network (NWBP), related to previous research of complex networks. The algorithms are developed separately by adopting WS and NW small-world networks as their topological structures, and their derivation and convergence criterion are progressively discussed. After that, the proposed models are subsequently tested by two typical nonlinear functions which confirm their significant improvement over the regular BP networks and other algorithms. Finally, a wind power prediction system is advanced to verify their generalization abilities, and show that the models are practically feasible and effective with improved accuracy and acceptable forecasting errors caused by wind fluctuation and randomness with a time scale up to 24 h.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1980

Simulation of a navigator algorithm for a low-cost GPS receiver

The analytical structure of an existing navigator algorithm for a low cost global positioning system receiver is described in detail to facilitate its implementation on in-house digital computers and real-time simulators. The material presented includes a simulation of GPS pseudorange measurements, based on a two-body representation of the NAVSTAR spacecraft orbits, and a four component model of the receiver bias errors. A simpler test for loss of pseudorange measurements due to spacecraft shielding is also noted.

Hodge, W. F.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Response of the mobile VLBI design to error sources

The response of Mobile VLBI design to error sources is addressed. The sensitivity of the hydrogen maser to variations in ambient temperature is discussed, with an example of drifts in the frequency system causing excursions in the time-delay observable exceeding + or - 200 cm. It is shown that baselines determined only from S-band data can contain errors in excess of 30 cm during periods of high ionospheric activity. The effect of the troposphere on baseline solutions is examined by comparing calibrations from the Water Vapor Radiometer (WVR) to those from a surface model. The apparent ability of the WVR to track relatively short-period fluctuations in water vapor is noted. Finally, consideration is given to the effects of source structure and the technique of monitoring closure of the time-delay observable around a closed figure of baselines.

Trask, D. W.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Subgrid Treatment of Spacer Grids in the 2D/1D Subplane Approach

Recent efforts have focused on improving the performance of the 2D/1D subplane implementation in MPACT. One of the developments recently added, presented here, focuses on treating spacer grids using a subgrid approach within each subplane, avoiding the extra computation and potentially improving stability issues that can be present by explicitly modeling the spacer grid with a separate MOC plane. From the cases analyzed, it seems that the approach does a sufficient job of maintaining the accuracy of explicitly meshing the spacer grid (<10 pcm and <1% max pin power error) while offering relatively modest performance gains. Overall, the success of the approach with spacer grids opens up possibilities to apply similar approaches to other structural components, particularly those in the axial reflectors to reduce the number of MOC planes and overall computational burden.

Stimpson, Shane G.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bridging the time scale in exascale computing of chemical systems (Final Technical Report)

This report summarizes the work carried out with support of the United States Department of Energy under Award DE-SC0019441. The theme of this project was to develop and apply methods that allowed for the acceleration of atomistic calculations, particularly in challenging areas such as multiphase systems, electrified interfaces, uncertainty estimation, and applications requiring chemical accuracy, which tend to be applications where simulation time is severely bottlenecked by the computational time requirements. Much of the focus was on the application of emerging machine-learning methodologies, although a wide range of methodologies were employed. This report has two major sections. The first focuses on the methodological advances themselves. Within this part, we report a number of major advances, a few examples of which are described here. We report the first machine-learning scheme for the acceleration of electronically grand-canonical calculations (that is, those applicable to electrochemistry). We report new methods of performing transfer learning, in which physics-based priors can be used to provide predictions, often with uncertainty estimates, of images well outside of training sets; we also offer ways to fine-tune these transfer-learning models. We provide a new systematic means to generate and apply minimal training data sets to very large (10,000’s of atoms) systems, with only small training sets appropriate for electronic structure. We developed new methodologies to integrate surface vibrations into surface adsorption calculations. We made advances to the applicability of diffusion Monte Carlo methods to allow (learned) force prediction, finite-size error correction, and force-free means of searching for transition states. We integrated machine-learned atomistic predictions into mechanism generation codes. Additionally, we released new software including AmpTorch, a modernized version of our original atomistic machine-learning code Amp. The second part of this report focuses on the scientific applications that accompanied, and were often enabled by, the methodological advances described earlier. A few examples follow, but full details are in the individual chapters of the report. For example, we developed a general theory of phonon-induced friction on molecular adsorbates. We showed fundamentally how solvent influences the adsorption and desorption process and how it differs from the processes typically involved at the solid–gas interface, making aqueous-phase and electrocatalysis different from traditional thermocatalysis. We examined how metal–insulator and magnetic transitions can be probed, and accelerated exciton dynamics via Frenkel Hamiltonian parameters. We showed that the nearsighted force-training approach, developed within this project, can predict both the stability and reactivity of large nanoparticles, and can also lead to insights on catalyst coverage on binding energies and entropies. These applied studies, which generally integrated with our method development, allowed us to push forward the theoretical understanding of several reaction classes.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven reduced-order models for port-Hamiltonian systems with operator inference

Hamiltonian operator inference has been developed in Sharma et al. (2022) to learn structure-preserving reduced-order models (ROMs) for Hamiltonian systems. The method constructs a low-dimensional model using only data and knowledge of the functional form of the Hamiltonian. The resulting ROMs preserve the intrinsic structure of the system, ensuring that the mechanical and physical properties of the system are maintained. In this work, we extend this approach to port-Hamiltonian systems, which generalize Hamiltonian systems by including energy dissipation, external input, and output. Based on snapshots of the system’s state and output, together with the information about the functional form of the Hamiltonian, reduced operators are inferred through optimization and are then used to construct data-driven ROMs. To further alleviate the complexity of evaluating nonlinear terms in the ROMs, a hyper-reduction method via discrete empirical interpolation is applied. Accordingly, we derive error estimates for the ROM approximations of the state and output. Lastly, we demonstrate the structure preservation, as well as the accuracy of the proposed port-Hamiltonian operator inference framework, through numerical experiments on a linear mass–spring-damper problem and a nonlinear Toda lattice problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

A density functional theory based approach for predicting melting points of ionic liquids

Accurate prediction of melting points of ILs is important both from the fundamental point of view and from the practical perspective for screening ILs with low melting points and broadening their utilization in a wider temperature range. In this work, we present an ab initio approach to calculating melting points of ILs with known crystal structures and illustrate its application for a series of 11 ILs containing imidazolium/pyrrolidinium cations and halide/polyatomic fluoro-containing anions. The melting point is determined as a temperature at which the Gibbs free energy of fusion is zero. The Gibbs free energy of fusion can be expressed through the use of the Born-Fajans-Haber cycle via the lattice free energy of forming a solid IL from gaseous phase ions and the sum of the solvation free energies of ions comprising IL. Dispersion-corrected density functional theory (DFT) involving (semi)local (PBE-D3) and hybrid exchange-correlation (HSE06-D3) functionals is applied to estimate the lattice enthalpy, entropy, and free energy. The ions solvation free energies are calculated with the SMD-generic-IL solvation model at the M06-2X/6-31+G(d) level of theory under standard conditions. The melting points of ILs computed with the HSE06-D3 functional are in good agreement with the experimental data, with a mean absolute error of 30.5 K and a mean relative error of 8.5%. The model is capable of accurately reproducing the trends in melting points upon variation of alkyl substituents in organic cations and replacement one anion by another. The results verify that the lattice energies of ILs containing polyatomic fluoro-containing anions can be approximated reasonably well using the volume-based thermodynamic approach. However, there is no correlation of the computed lattice energies with molecular volume for ILs containing halide anions. Moreover, entropies of solid ILs follow two different linear relationships with molecular volume for halides and polyatomic fluoro-containing anions. As a result, continuous progress in predicting crystal structures of organic salts with halide anions will be a key factor for successful prediction of melting points with no prior knowledge of the crystal structure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Segmented Solid Surface Reflector Concentrically Stacked With Tubular Shape Memory Composite Hinges

A new architecture for solid surface reflector antennas scalable to sizes greater than 10 m is presented. The design uses compact, light, and simple advanced deployable structures to create sub-reflectors that can be assembled in space into larger units using a robotic arm. The seven-panel hexagonal sub-reflector is divided into hexagonal panels that stack concentrically and vertically. The central panel is connected to each side panel on the back side by a pair of tubular shape memory composite hinges that enable the required deployment kinematics with controlled dynamics. A secondary mechanism closes the interpanel gap. The focus of the paper is on the development of the sub-reflector elements, namely the tubular hinges that use embedded heaters and sensors for triggering and control, the actuation mechanisms, and the lightweight sandwich construction reflector panels. A parametric study using finite element analyses was conducted to assess how design features of the hinge affect its stowage and deployment dynamics. The preliminary component fabrication and testing results for the two-panel assembly breadboard model are outlined. Finally, the results of the test campaign with the brassboard reflector model are presented. A comparison of deployed reflector surface deviation between the measured surface after the stowage and deployment process and the pre-test scans and the nominal surface revealed root mean square errors of less than 1 mm, as required by X-band radiofrequency transmission.

gravity offloading↗

DOE OSTI2026

Model-observation discrepancies in Arctic moisture intrusions: causes and pathways for improved simulation

Arctic moisture intrusions (MIs), narrow filaments of strong moisture transport, are key drivers of poleward moisture flux and Arctic weather extremes, yet their representation in climate models is poorly understood. Using a new Arctic MI detection algorithm, we document persistent biases across three CMIP generations (CMIP3–CMIP6): models overestimate MI occurrence over the Pacific sector and underestimate it over the Atlantic sector. These errors stem from misrepresented midlatitude westerly jets, with an equatorward North Atlantic jet associated with too few Atlantic MIs, and a poleward, weakened North Pacific jet linked to too many Pacific MIs. Experiments that correct sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration biases and increase atmospheric resolution improve jet structure and MI statistics, while a cloud-locking simulation indicates that better high-frequency cloud–radiation–circulation interactions can yield further gains. Our results clarify pathways to reducing long-standing MI and jet biases, providing guidance for improving simulations of Arctic and midlatitude climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Many-body expansion based machine learning models for octahedral transition metal complexes

Abstract Graph-based machine learning (ML) models for material properties show great potential to accelerate virtual high-throughput screening of large chemical spaces. However, in their simplest forms, graph-based models do not include any 3D information and are unable to distinguish stereoisomers such as those arising from different orderings of ligands around a metal center in coordination complexes. In this work we present a modification to revised autocorrelation descriptors, a molecular graph featurization method, for predicting spin state dependent properties of octahedral transition metal complexes (TMCs). Inspired by analytical semi-empirical models for TMCs, the new modeling strategy is based on the many-body expansion (MBE) and allows one to tune the captured stereoisomer information by changing the truncation order of the MBE. We present the necessary modifications to include this approach in two commonly used ML methods, kernel ridge regression and feed-forward neural networks. On a test set composed of all possible isomers of binary TMCs, the best MBE models achieve mean absolute errors (MAEs) of 2.75 kcal mol −1 on spin-splitting energies and 0.26 eV on frontier orbital energy gaps, a 30%–40% reduction in error compared to models based on our previous approach. We also observe improved generalization to previously unseen ligands where the best-performing models exhibit MAEs of 4.00 kcal mol −1 (i.e. a 0.73 kcal mol −1 reduction) on the spin-splitting energies and 0.53 eV (i.e. a 0.10 eV reduction) on the frontier orbital energy gaps. Because the new approach incorporates insights from electronic structure theory, such as ligand additivity relationships, these models exhibit systematic generalization from homoleptic to heteroleptic complexes, allowing for efficient screening of TMC search spaces.

Meyer, Ralf (ORCID:0000000322360261)↗

DOE OSTI2024

The seventh blind test of crystal structure prediction: structure ranking methods

A seventh blind test of crystal structure prediction has been organized by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre. The results are presented in two parts, with this second part focusing on methods for ranking crystal structures in order of stability. The exercise involved standardized sets of structures seeded from a range of structure generation methods. Participants from 22 groups applied several periodic DFT-D methods, machine learned potentials, force fields derived from empirical data or quantum chemical calculations, and various combinations of the above. In addition, one non-energy-based scoring function was used. Results showed that periodic DFT-D methods overall agreed with experimental data within expected error margins, while one machine learned model, applying system-specific AIMnet potentials, agreed with experiment in many cases demonstrating promise as an efficient alternative to DFT-based methods. For target XXXII, a consensus was reached across periodic DFT methods, with consistently high predicted energies of experimental forms relative to the global minimum (above 4 kJ mol −1 at both low and ambient temperatures) suggesting a more stable polymorph is likely not yet observed. The calculation of free energies at ambient temperatures offered improvement of predictions only in some cases (for targets XXVII and XXXI). Several avenues for future research have been suggested, highlighting the need for greater efficiency considering the vast amounts of resources utilized in many cases.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2019

Hex Element Aspect Ratio and Formulation

When modeling thin structures, some analysts use shell elements. Others choose hex elements. Both element types have their advantages and disadvantages. This memo describes a weakness of using hex elements to model bending. Specifically, the accuracy degrades as the element aspect ratio increases. This study illustrates this effect for the mean quadrature and the selective deviatoric formulations. For the test case considered, the selective deviatoric formulation produces larger errors.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1985

The design of a precision pointing contol system for the Space Infrared Telescope Facility

The design and performance simulation of the Space Infrared Telescope Facility pointing and control system are described. The system design is constrained by such considerations as image stability, maneuver capability, cryogen lifetime, and structural flexibility. The primary design driver is the requirement to rapidly execute small angle reorientations of the telescope's optical axis. The flexibility of the spacecraft was simulated using a simplified multibody model which provided an approximation of the primary bending modes. The rather conventional attitude control system design of PID type with a 0.5 Hz bandwidth was enhanced to meet the small angle maneuver requirements by the use of three techniques: (1) a feedforward loop to improve the time response; (2) torque shaping to minimize structural excitation; and (3) active image stabilization to remove residual pointing error and jitter. Simulation results indicate that the system has the desired performance and can be designed using techniques and hardware well within the state-of-the-art.

Sridhar, B.↗