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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

NSR&D Program Fiscal Year 2015 Funded Research Stochastic Modeling of Radioactive Material Releases Final Report

Nonreactor nuclear facilities operating under the approval authority of the U.S. Department of Energy use unmitigated hazard evaluations to determine if potential radiological doses associated with design basis events challenge or exceed dose evaluation guidelines. Unmitigated design basis events that sufficiently challenge dose evaluation guidelines or exceed the guidelines for members of the public or workers, merit selection of safety structures, systems, or components or other controls to prevent or mitigate the hazard. Idaho State University, in collaboration with Idaho National Laboratory, has developed a portable and simple to use software application called SODA (Stochastic Objective Decision-Aide) that stochastically calculates the radiation dose distribution associated with hypothetical radiological material release scenarios. Rather than producing a point estimate of the dose, SODA produces a dose distribution result to allow a deeper understanding of the dose potential. SODA allows users to select the distribution type and parameter values for all of the input variables used to perform the dose calculation. Users can also specify custom distributions through a user defined distribution option. SODA then randomly samples each distribution input variable and calculates the overall resulting dose distribution. In cases where an input variable distribution is unknown, a traditional single point value can be used. SODA, developed using the MATLAB coding framework, has a graphical user interface and can be installed on both Windows and Mac computers. SODA is a standalone software application and does not require MATLAB to function. SODA provides improved risk understanding leading to better informed decision making associated with establishing nuclear facility material-at-risk limits and safety structure, system, or component selection. It is important to note that SODA does not replace or compete with codes such as MACCS or RSAC; rather it is viewed as an easy to use supplemental tool to help improve risk understanding and support better informed decisions. The SODA development project was funded through a grant from the DOE Nuclear Safety Research and Development Program.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Coupled aero-hydro-geotech real-time hybrid simulation of offshore wind turbine monopile structures

Real-time hybrid simulation (RTHS) divides a structural system into an analytical and experimental substructure. The former is based on a well-established analytical model while the latter consists of a physical model in the laboratory, for which there is not a well-established analytical model. This paper extends real-time hybrid simulation to monopile-type Offshore Wind Turbines (OWTs) to enable the investigation of their behavior considering the response of pile foundations under operational and more severe conditions. The embedded foundation and surrounding soil of the OWT are modeled physically in a soil box in the laboratory while the remaining parts of the system and loading are modeled analytically. The program OpenFAST, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), is linked to the RTHS coordinator to determine the hydrodynamic and aerodynamic loads acting on the OWT, along with modeling the dynamics of the electric power generation equipment and associated controller for the OWT. The RTHS framework along with its initial implementation and validation are described in this paper. RTHSs of a 5 MW OWT subjected to operational and more severe conditions are performed to experimentally validate the framework. The framework offers a realistic approach to investigate the behavior of OWT structures supported on monopiles. Furthermore, this approach accounts for the coupled response of the OWT structure with its foundation, while experimentally capturing the nonlinearities of the soil-foundation interaction in real-time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

BISON Capability to Account for Dopant Sensitivity in Relevant UO 2 Material Models

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program aims to develop predictive capabilities using computational methods for the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been supporting the development of BISON, a high-fidelity and high-resolution fuel performance tool at the engineering scale. Incorporation of more physics-based models in BISON for the accident tolerant fuel applications motivated this study. This document details integration of new modeling capabilities in BISON, including: a tensile strength model for uranium dioxide (UO 2 ) fuel to incorporate the microstructural effects (e.g., grain size, fabrication pore size, and porosity), and atomistic-informed creep model for UO 2 fuel that is developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory. Sensitivity analyses are conducted on these models separately as well as a two-dimensional full rod application under normal operating conditions. Lastly, these new modeling capabilities in BISON are exercised in Halden IFA-677.1 and IFA-716.1 assessment cases.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Extension of Virtual Test Bed Advanced Modeling and Simulation Capabilities for Fusion Energy

The National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) was established to accelerate the deployment of novel reactor concepts. This is achieved by providing physical and virtual spaces for building and testing reactor experiments. The Virtual Test Bed (VTB) represents the virtual counterpart to the physical test beds. It is a collaboration with the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program with the mission to accelerate the deployment of advanced reactors by facilitating the adoption of advanced modeling and simulation (M&S) tools developed by the DOE. This mission has been carried out by the VTB since 2020 by hosting and featuring dozens of advanced fission nuclear reactor models developed by national laboratories and academia. The charter of the NRIC’s definition of advanced reactors also includes fusion nuclear reactors. As the tools developed by the NEAMS program are increasingly used for modeling fusion energy devices, there is an increasing need to host fusion reactor models on the VTB repository. The VTB will be extended in 2024 to support fusion energy modeling and simulation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Synthesizing models useful for ecohydrology and ecohydraulic approaches: An emphasis on integrating models to address complex research questions

Ecohydrology combines empiricism, data analytics, and the integration of models to characterize linkages between ecological and hydrological processes. A challenge for practitioners is determining which models best generalizes heterogeneity in hydrological behaviour, including water fluxes across spatial and temporal scales, integrating environmental and socio–economic activities to determine best watershed management practices and data requirements. We conducted a literature review and synthesis of hydrologic, hydraulic, water quality, and ecological models designed for solving interdisciplinary questions. We reviewed 1,275 papers and identified 178 models that have the capacity to answer an array of research questions about ecohydrology or ecohydraulics. Of these models, 43 were commonly applied due to their versatility, accessibility, user–friendliness, and excellent user–support. Forty–one of 43 reviewed models were linked to at least 1 other model especially: Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (linked to 21 other models), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (19), and Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (15). However, model integration was still relatively infrequent. There was substantial variation in model applications, possibly an artefact of the regional focus of research questions, simplicity of use, quality of user–support efforts, or a limited understanding of model applicability. Simply increasing the interoperability of model platforms, transformation of models to user–friendly forms, increasing user–support, defining the reliability and risk associated with model results, and increasing awareness of model applicability may promote increased use of models across subdisciplines. Furthermore, the current availability of models allows an array of interdisciplinary questions to be addressed, and model choice relates to several factors including research objective, model complexity, ability to link to other models, and interface choice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An integrated approach to optimizing concentration shock wave electrodialysis using 2D multicell simulation and response surface models

Shock wave electrodialysis (SWED) is a highly promising technique for energy-efficient ion separation in the context of a circular economy. This paper presents a approach way of modeling and improving SWED using a two-dimensional multicell model combined with the COMSOL program and response surface methodology. The model integrates the Nernst-Planck equation, Darcy's law, and first-order electroosmosis to examine the local concentration, flux of ionic species, distribution of current, and velocity of flow in SWED cells under various operating conditions. We first illustrate the clear depiction of concentration, velocity, and electric potential distribution through contours which aids in identifying optimal operating conditions and designing scalable SWED systems. The results emphasize the significance of surface charge density and voltage in influencing the features of shock waves for obtaining effective ion separation while optimizing energy consumption and improving current efficiency by controlling the retention time of feed flow. Here, this study defines two crucial characteristics of shock waves, namely the length of the flat depletion zone of a fully developed shock wave (shock wave height) and the distance of shock wave propagation (shock wave length). These properties significantly impact separation performance, as determined by the simulation results. Additionally, the response surface methodology is incorporated with the COMSOL models to develop predictive models and graph responses, enabling a more comprehensive understanding of the interactions between parameters and performance indicators, such as removal ratio, energy consumption, and water recovery. Finally, this work suggests design tactics for expanding SWED processes and outlines potential areas for further research. This research provides valuable insights into the prospective applications, design optimization, and scalability of SWED in the field of electrokinetic separation technologies for green chemistry and a circular economy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

XACC: a system-level software infrastructure for heterogeneous quantum–classical computing

Quantum programming techniques and software have advanced significantly over the past five years, with a majority focusing on high-level language frameworks targeting remote REST library APIs. As quantum computing architectures advance and become more widely available, lower-level, system software infrastructures will be needed to enable tighter, co-processor programming and access models. In this work, we present XACC, a system-level software infrastructure for quantum–classical computing that promotes a service-oriented architecture to expose interfaces for core quantum programming, compilation, and execution tasks. Additionally, we detail XACC's interfaces, their interactions, and its implementation as a hardware-agnostic framework for both near-term and future quantum–classical architectures. We provide concrete examples demonstrating the utility of this framework with paradigmatic tasks. Our approach lays the foundation for the development of compilers, associated runtimes, and low-level system tools tightly integrating quantum and classical workflows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Performance Models for Split-execution Computing Systems

Split-execution computing leverages the capabilities of multiple computational models to solve problems, but splitting program execution across different computational models incurs costs associated with the translation between domains. We analyze the performance of a split-execution computing system developed from conventional and quantum processing units (QPUs) by using behavioral models that track resource usage. We focus on asymmetric processing models built using conventional CPUs and a family of special-purpose QPUs that employ quantum computing principles. Our performance models account for the translation of a classical optimization problem into the physical representation required by the quantum processor while also accounting for hardware limitations and conventional processor speed and memory. We conclude that the bottleneck in this split-execution computing system lies at the quantum-classical interface and that the primary time cost is independent of quantum processor behavior.

multiprocessor↗

Modeling Universal Globally Adaptive Load-Balanced Routing

Universal globally adaptive load-balanced (UGAL) routing has been proposed for various interconnection networks and has been deployed in a number of current-generation supercomputers. Although UGAL-based schemes have been extensively studied, most existing results are based on either simulation or measurement. Without a theoretical understanding of UGAL, multiple questions remain: For which traffic patterns is UGAL most suited? Furthermore, what determines the performance of the UGAL-based scheme on a particular network configuration? Here, we develop a set of throughput models for UGALbased on linear programming. We show that the throughput models are valid across the torus, Dragonfly, and Slim Fly network topologies. Finally, we identify a robust model that can accurately and efficiently predict UGAL throughput for a set of representative traffic patterns across different topologies. Our models not only provide a mechanism to predict UGAL performance on large-scale interconnection networks but also reveal the inner working of UGAL and further our understanding of this type of routing.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Community Solar Program and Subscription Design

This slide deck provides an overview of community solar program design and subscription models. It introduces and explains the different elements of community solar program and subscription design, and proves proven practices and considerations when designing a community solar program. This slide deck was developed for a continuing education course hosted by the American Public Power Association (APPA).

community solar↗

SU-F-T-540: Comprehensive Fluence Delivery Optimization with Multileaf Collimation

Purpose: Multileaf collimator (MLC) leaf sequencing is performed via commercial black-box implementations, on which a user has limited to no access. We have developed an explicit, generic MLC sequencing model to serve as a tool for future investigations of fluence map optimization, fluence delivery optimization, and rotational collimator delivery methods. Methods: We have developed a novel, comprehensive model to effectively account for a variety of transmission and penumbra effects previously treated on an ad hoc basis in the literature. As the model is capable of quantifying a variety of effects, we utilize the asymmetric leakage intensity across each leaf to deliver fluence maps with pixel size smaller than the narrowest leaf width. Developed using linear programming and mixed integer programming formulations, the model is implemented using state of the art open-source solvers. To demonstrate the versatility of the algorithm, a graphical user interface (GUI) was developed in MATLAB capable of accepting custom leaf specifications and transmission parameters. As a preliminary proof-ofconcept, we have sequenced the leaves of a Varian 120 Leaf Millennium MLC for five prostate cancer patient fields and one head and neck field. Predetermined fluence maps have been processed by data smoothing methods to obtain pixel sizes of 2.5 cm{sup 2}. The quality of output was analyzed using computer simulations. Results: For the prostate fields, an average root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.82 and gamma (0.5mm/0.5%) of 91.4% were observed compared to RMSE and gamma (0.5mm/0.5%) values of 7.04 and 34.0% when the leakage considerations were omitted. Similar results were observed for the head and neck case. Conclusion: A model to sequence MLC leaves to optimality has been proposed. Future work will involve extensive testing and evaluation of the method on clinical MLCs and comparison with black-box leaf sequencing algorithms currently used by commercial treatment planning systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Model Predictive Control of Discrete-Continuous Energy Systems via Generalized Disjunctive Programming

Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP) provides an alternative framework to model optimization problems with both discrete and continuous variables. The key idea behind GDP involves the use of logical disjunctions to represent discrete decisions in the continuous space, and logical propositions to denote algebraic constraints in the discrete space. Compared to traditional mixed-integer programming (MIP), the inherent logic structure in GDP yields tighter relaxations that are exploited by global branch and bound algorithms to improve solution quality. In this paper, we present a general GDP model for optimal control of hybrid systems that exhibit both discrete and continuous dynamics. Specifically, we use GDP to formulate a model predictive control (MPC) model for piecewise-affine systems with implicit switching logic. As an example, the GDP-based MPC approach is used as a supervisory control to improve energy efficiency in residential buildings with binary on/off, relay-based thermostats. A simulation study is used to demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach, and the improved solution quality compared to existing MIPbased control approaches.

Bhattacharya, Arnab↗

Data Locality Enhancement of Dynamic Simulations for Exascale Computing (Final Report)

The development of modern processors exhibits two trends that complicate the optimizations of modern software. The first is the increasing sensitivity of processors' throughput to irregularities in computation. With more processors produced through a massive integration of simple cores, future systems will increasingly favor regular data-level parallel computations, but deviate from the needs of applications with complex patterns. Some evidences are already shown on Graphic Processing Units (GPU): Irregular data accesses (e.g., indirect references A[D[i]]) and conditional branches are limiting many GPU applications' performance at a level an order of magnitude lower than the peak of GPU. The second hardware trend is the growing gap between memory bandwidth and the aggregate speed—that is, the sum of all cores' computing power—of a Chip Multiprocessor (CMP). Despite the capped growth of the peak CPU speed, the aggregate speed of a CMP keeps increasing as more cores get into a single chip. It is expected that by 2018, node concurrency in an exascale system will increase by hundreds of times, whereas, memory bandwidth will expand by only 10 to 20 times. Consequently, data movement and storage is expected to consume more than 70% of the total system power. Bridging this gap is difficult; the complexities of modern CMP memory hierarchy make it even harder: Data cache becomes shared among computing units, and the sharing is often non-uniform—whether two computing units share a cache depends on their proximity and the level of the cache. On the recent IBM Power7 architecture, for instance, four hardware contexts (or SMT threads) in a core share the entire memory hierarchy, all cores in one chip share an on-chip L3 cache, and cores across chips share L3 and main memory through off-chip connections. These two trends complicate the translation of computing power into performance, especially for a program with either intensive data accesses or complex patterns in data accesses or control flow paths. Unfortunately, both attributes present and will persist in a class of important applications. For instance, many scientific simulations deal with a large volume of data. And meanwhile, as most real-world processes are non-uniform and evolving (e.g., the evolution of a galaxy or the process of a drug injection), both the computations and data accesses of these programs tend to be irregular and dynamically changing. Currently, the lack of support to these applications on modern CMP severely limits their performance. On GPU, as our recent study shows and other studies echo, performance enhancement of a factor of integers is possible when memory accesses or control flows are streamlined for a set of GPU applications. On multicore CPU, our studies show that traditional locality enhancement, for being oblivious to the new features of multicore memory hierarchy, may even cause large slowdown to data-intensive dynamic applications. The severity of the issues is expected to worsen as the two hardware trends continue. Some recent studies try to match software with the trends, but in a limited scope or manner. For irregularities on GPU, most studies focus on irregularities analyzable through static analysis (e.g., data accesses in regular loops). Dynamic irregularities are harder to address because the needed analysis and transformations typically have to happen at run time. Some other research resorts to hardware extensions, an actual adoption of which is unclear for the entailed space cost and complexity. For data locality, recent years have seen some exploitations of the new memory hierarchy on multicore for performance, but most of them are on process or thread scheduling, rather than program transformations. Our recent study reveals that program-level transformations may magnify the scheduling benefits by a factor of seven, concluding that program-level transformation should play a central role for data locality enhancement on modern CMP. But research in this direction has been sparse, and most have focused on data layout or cache performance modeling, rather than program transformations to match with the new memory hierarchy features. Overall, it is still an open question how to bridge the gap between dynamic computations and the two prominent properties of modern processors. The goal of this project is to develop a set of techniques and software tools to enhance the matching between memory accesses in dynamic simulations and the prominent features of modern and future CMP, alleviating the memory performance issues for petascale and exascale computing. This report summarizes the discoveries and products produced throughout this project. It includes free launch, a new software approach to overcoming the shortcomings of both methods; coherence-free multiview, an approach that allows multiple views of a single data object to co-exist on GPU memory during a GPU kernel execution; algorithmic optimizations to data analytics problems, especially those that involve lots of distance calculations. Supporting dynamic parallelism is important for GPU to benefit a broad range of applications. There are currently two fundamental ways for programs to exploit dynamic parallelism on GPU: a software-based approach with software-managed worklists, and a hardware-based approach through dynamic subkernel launches. Neither is satisfactory. The former is complicated to program and is often subject to some load imbalance; the latter suffers large runtime overhead. In this work, we propose free launch, a new software approach to overcoming the shortcomings of both methods. It allows programmers to use subkernel launches to express dynamic parallelism. It employs a novel compiler-based code transformation named subkernel launch removal to replace the subkernel launches with the reuse of parent threads. Coupled with an adaptive task assignment mechanism, the transformation reassigns the tasks in the subkernels to the parent threads with a good load balance. The technique requires no hardware extensions, immediately deployable on existing GPUs. It keeps the programming convenience of the subkernel launch-based approach while avoiding its large runtime overhead. Meanwhile, its superior load balancing makes it outperform manual worklist-based techniques by 3X on average. The work was published at the 48th Annual IEEE/ACM International Symposium on Microarchitecture (Micro'2015). A Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) system is typically equipped with many types of memory (e.g., global, constant, texture, shared, cache). Data placement determines what data are placed on which type of memory, essential for GPU memory performance. Prior optimizations of data placement always require a single view of a data object on memory, which limits the optimization effectiveness. In this work, we propose coherence-free multiview, an approach that allows multiple views of a single data object to co-exist on GPU memory during a GPU kernel execution. We demonstrate that under certain conditions, the multiple views can remain incoherent while facilitating enhanced data placement. We present a theorem and some compiler support to ensure the soundness of the usage of coherence-free multiview. We further develop reference-discerning data placement, a new way to enhance data placements on GPU. It enables more flexible data placements by using coherence-free multiview to leverage the slack in coherence requirement of some GPU programs. Experiments on three types of GPU systems show that, with less than 200KB space cost, the new data placement technique can provide a 1.6X average (up to 4.27X) speedup. In addition, we have examined algorithmic optimizations to data analytics problems, especially those that involve lots of distance calculations. Computing distances among data points is an essential part of many important algorithms in data analytics, graph analysis, and other domains. In each of these domains, developers have spent significant manual effort optimizing algorithms, often through novel applications of the triangle equality, in order to minimize the number of distance computations in the algorithms. In this work, we observe that many algorithms across these domains can be generalized as an instance of a generic distance-related abstraction. Based on this abstraction, we derive seven principles for correctly applying the triangular inequality to optimize distance-related algorithms. Guided by the findings, we develop Triangular OPtimizer (TOP), the first software framework that is able to automatically produce optimized algorithms that either matches or outperforms manually designed algorithms for solving distance-related problems. TOP achieves up to 237x speedups and 2.5X on average. The work has been published at the 32nd International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML'15) and the 41st International Conference on Very Large Data Bases (VLDB'15).

42 ENGINEERING↗

SAM Code Development for Transient Safety Analyses of Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactors

The System Analysis Module (SAM) is under development at Argonne National Laboratory as a modern system-level modeling and simulation tool for advanced non-light water reactor safety analyses. It utilizes the object-oriented application framework MOOSE to leverage the modern software environment and advanced numerical methods. The capabilities of SAM are being extended to enable the transient modeling, analysis, and design of various advanced nuclear reactor systems. The molten-salt-cooled pebble-bed reactor, or pebble-bed FHR (PB-FHR) is a promising candidate among advanced nuclear reactor concepts with its improved passive safety characteristics and high thermal efficiency. To support the development and utilization of the SAM code for PB-FHR safety analysis, activities on SAM code enhancements, reference plant model developments, and code validations have been performed in the past a few years to support near-term industry and NRC needs. This report summarizes recent progress under DOE-NE’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program in SAM code development and demonstration for transient safety analysis of Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactors. SAM capabilities has been significantly enhanced over the years to add FHR specific modeling features, including salt freezing and thawing, spherical core channel and pebble bed core modeling, solid-fluid thermal radiation, tritium transport and general species transport in fluids and solids, and the general code enhancements on solver schemes of point kinetics module and reactivity feedback models. A reference PB-FHR model is developed, based on publicly available information from Kairos Power’s generic FHR design and the University of California, Berkeley (UCB) Mk1 design. A reference reactor model is foundational to the methodologies employed by NRC to verify the adequacy of computer codes and evaluation models. The reference FHR model was utilized for a number of selected FHR design basis accidents, including station blackout, loss of heat sink, loss of flow, transient overpower, and overcooling events.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Comparison of silver release predictions using PARFUME with results from the AGR-2 irradiation experiment

The PARFUME (PARticle FUel ModEl) code was used to predict silver release from tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated fuel particles and compacts during the second irradiation experiment (AGR-2) of the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification program. The PARFUME model for the AGR-2 experiment used the fuel compact volume average temperature for each of the 559 days of irradiation to calculate the release of fission product silver from a representative particle for a select number of AGR-2 compacts and individual fuel particles containing either mixed uranium carbide/oxide (UCO) or 100% uranium dioxide (UO2) kernels. Post-irradiation examination (PIE) measurements were performed to provide data on release of silver from these compacts and individual fuel particles. The available experimental fractional releases of silver were compared to their corresponding PARFUME predictions. Preliminary comparisons show that PARFUME under-predicts the PIE results in UCO compacts and is in reasonable agreement with experimental data for UO2 compacts. The accuracy of PARFUME predictions is impacted by the code limitations in the modeling of the temporal and spatial distributions of the temperature across the compacts. Nevertheless, the comparisons on silver release lie within the same order of magnitude.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Comparison of Fission Product Release Predictions using PARFUME with Results from the AGR-2 Irradiation Experiment

The PARFUME (PARticle FUel ModEl) code was used to predict fission product release from tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated fuel particles and compacts during the second irradiation experiment (AGR-2) of the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program. The PARFUME model for the Advanced Gas reactor (AGR)GR-2 experiment used the fuel compact volume average temperature for each of the 560 days of irradiation to calculate the release of fission products of silver, cesium, and strontium from a representative particle for a select number of AGR -2 compacts. In addition, safety tests were performed on 15 compacts ranging from 1500 to 1800°C to determine fission product release at temperatures that bound reactor accident conditions. PARFUME was used to calculate the fission product release of silver, cesium, strontium, and krypton during these safety tests. Post-irradiation examination (PIE) measurements provided the data on release of fission products from the fuel compacts and fuel particles, and retention of fission products in the compacts outside the silicon carbide (SiC) layer. The predicted fraction release from PARFUME was then compared to PIE measurements.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Development of QSAR models to predict blood-brain barrier permeability

Assessing drug permeability across the blood-brain barrier (BBB) is important when evaluating the abuse potential of new pharmaceuticals as well as developing novel therapeutics that target central nervous system disorders. One of the gold-standard in vivo methods for determining BBB permeability is rodent log BB; however, like most in vivo methods, it is time-consuming and expensive. In the present study, two statistical-based quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models were developed to predict BBB permeability of drugs based on their chemical structure. The in vivo BBB permeability data were harvested for 921 compounds from publicly available literature, non-proprietary drug approval packages, and University of Washington’s Drug Interaction Database. The cross-validation performance statistics for the BBB models ranged from 82 to 85% in sensitivity and 80–83% in negative predictivity. Additionally, the performance of newly developed models was assessed using an external validation set comprised of 83 chemicals. Overall, performance of individual models ranged from 70 to 75% in sensitivity, 70–72% in negative predictivity, and 78–86% in coverage. The predictive performance was further improved to 93% in coverage by combining predictions across the two software programs. These new models can be rapidly deployed to predict blood brain barrier permeability of pharmaceutical candidates and reduce the use of experimental animals.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Suitability of Synthetic Driving Profiles from Traffic Micro-Simulation for Real-World Energy Analysis: Preprint

A shift towards increased levels of driving automation is generally expected to result in improved safety and traffic congestion outcomes. However, little empirical data exists to estimate the impact that automated driving could have on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. In the absence of empirical data on differences between drive cycles from present day vehicles (primarily operated by humans) and future vehicles (partially or fully operated by computers) one approach is to model both situations over identical traffic conditions. Such an exercise requires traffic micro-simulation to not only accurately model vehicle operation under high levels of automation, but also (and potentially more challenging) vehicle operation under present day human drivers. This work seeks to quantify the ability of a commercial traffic micro-simulation program to accurately model real-world drive cycles in vehicles operated primarily by humans in terms of driving speed, acceleration, and simulated fuel economy. Synthetic profiles from models of freeway and arterial facilities near Atlanta, Georgia, are compared to empirical data collected from real-world drivers on the same facilities. Empirical and synthetic drive cycles are then simulated in a powertrain efficiency model to enable comparison on the basis of fuel economy. Synthetic profiles from traffic micro-simulation were found to exhibit low levels of transient behavior relative to the empirical data. Even with these differences, the synthetic and empirical data in this study agree well in terms of driving speed and simulated fuel economy. The differences in transient behavior between simulated and empirical data suggest that larger stochastic contributions in traffic micro-simulation (relative to those present in the traffic micro-simulation tool used in this study) are required to fully capture the arbitrary elements of human driving. Interestingly, the lack of stochastic contributions from models of human drivers in this study did not result in a significant discrepancy between fuel economy simulations based on synthetic and empirical data; a finding with implications on the potential energy efficiency gains of automated vehicle technology.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗