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Identifying Transient Candidates in the Dark Energy Survey Using Convolutional Neural Networks
The ability to discover new transient candidates via image differencing without direct human intervention is an important task in observational astronomy. For these kind of image classification problems, machine learning techniques such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have shown remarkable success. In this work, we present the results of an automated transient candidate identification on images with CNNs for an extant data set from the Dark Energy Survey Supernova program, whose main focus was on using Type Ia supernovae for cosmology. By performing an architecture search of CNNs, we identify networks that efficiently select non-artifacts (e.g., supernovae, variable stars, AGN, etc.) from artifacts (image defects, mis-subtractions, etc.), achieving the efficiency of previous work performed with random Forests, without the need to expend any effort in feature identification. The CNNs also help us identify a subset of mislabeled images. Performing a relabeling of the images in this subset, the resulting classification with CNNs is significantly better than previous results, lowering the false positive rate by 27% at a fixed missed detection rate of 0.05.
Remarks on the Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev model
We study a quantum mechanical model proposed by Sachdev, Ye and Kitaev. The model consists of N Majorana fermions with random interactions of a few fermions at a time. It it tractable in the large N limit, where the classical variable is a bilocal fermion bilinear. The model becomes strongly interacting at low energies where it develops an emergent conformal symmetry. We study two and four point functions of the fundamental fermions. This provides the spectrum of physical excitations for the bilocal field. The emergent conformal symmetry is a reparametrization symmetry, which is spontaneously broken to SL(2;R), leading to zero modes. These zero modes are lifted by a small residual explicit breaking, which produces an enhanced contribution to the four point function. This contribution displays a maximal Lyapunov exponent in the chaos region (out of time ordered correlator). We expect these features to be universal properties of large N quantum mechanics systems with emergent reparametrization symmetry. This article is largely based on talks given by Kitaev, which motivated us to work out the details of the ideas described there.
Understanding Growth Dynamics and Yield Prediction of Sorghum Using High Temporal Resolution UAV Imagery Time Series and Machine Learning
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) carrying multispectral cameras are increasingly being used for high-throughput phenotyping (HTP) of above-ground traits of crops to study genetic diversity, resource use efficiency and responses to abiotic or biotic stresses. There is significant unexplored potential for repeated data collection through a field season to reveal information on the rates of growth and provide predictions of the final yield. Generating such information early in the season would create opportunities for more efficient in-depth phenotyping and germplasm selection. This study tested the use of high-resolution time-series imagery (5 or 10 sampling dates) to understand the relationships between growth dynamics, temporal resolution and end-of-season above-ground biomass (AGB) in 869 diverse accessions of highly productive (mean AGB = 23.4 Mg/Ha), photoperiod sensitive sorghum. Canopy surface height (CSM), ground cover (GC), and five common spectral indices were considered as features of the crop phenotype. Spline curve fitting was used to integrate data from single flights into continuous time courses. Random Forest was used to predict end-of-season AGB from aerial imagery, and to identify the most informative variables driving predictions. Improved prediction of end-of-season AGB (RMSE reduction of 0.24 Mg/Ha) was achieved earlier in the growing season (10 to 20 days) by leveraging early- and mid-season measurement of the rate of change of geometric and spectral features. Early in the season, dynamic traits describing the rates of change of CSM and GC predicted end-of-season AGB best. Late in the season, CSM on a given date was the most influential predictor of end-of-season AGB. The power to predict end-of-season AGB was greatest at 50 days after planting, accounting for 63% of variance across this very diverse germplasm collection with modest error (RMSE 1.8 Mg/ha). End-of-season AGB could be predicted equally well when spline fitting was performed on data collected from five flights versus 10 flights over the growing season. This demonstrates a more valuable and efficient approach to using UAVs for HTP, while also proposing strategies to add further value.
INTRINSIC ELECTROMAGNETIC VARIABILITY IN CELESTIAL OBJECTS CONTAINING RAPIDLY SPINNING BLACK HOLES
Analytical studies have raised the concern that a mysterious expulsion of magnetic field lines by a rapidly spinning black hole (dubbed the black hole Meissner effect) would shut down the Blandford–Znajek process and quench the jets of active galactic nuclei and microquasars. This effect is, however, not seen observationally or in numerical simulations. Previous attempts at reconciling the predictions with observations have proposed several mechanisms to evade the Meissner effect. In this paper, we identify a new evasion mechanism and discuss its observational significance. Specifically, we show that the breakdown of stationarity is sufficient to remove the expulsion of the magnetic field at all multipole orders, and that the associated temporal variation is likely turbulent because of the existence of efficient mechanisms for sharing energy across different modes. Such an intrinsic (as opposed to being driven externally by, e.g., changes in the accretion rate) variability of the electromagnetic field can produce the recorded linear correlation between microvariability amplitudes and mean fluxes, help create magnetic randomness and seed sheared magnetic loops in jets, and lead to a better theoretical fit to the X-ray microvariability power spectral density.
The Feinheit method: A phase-independent formulation of the period-luminosity relation for Cephids
The tight correlation between color and luminosity during the cyclical variation of a Cepheid is calibrated and shown to be a direct means by which most of the phase-dependent temperature-induced amplitude of the variable can be transformed away. The resulting Feinheit function, F = V - alpha (B-V) gives rise to a random-phase period-luminosity relation with an rms scatter of less than 0.20 mag. A comparison shows that the blue Feinheit method for distance determinations method from single-phase observations is as accurate as near-infrared photometry but has the added advantage of being able to use panoramic detectors for the data acquisition. The Feinheit function is identified as the surface area variation of the Cepheid during its cycle.
Turbulence structure in microburst phenomena
The efect on turbulence of a variable mean wind along the flight path of an aircraft is modeled and analyzed. It is found that the effect of a variable head or tail wind alters the magnitude of the length-scale of sensed microburst turbulence, rendering turbulence more random than usually encountered in the upper atmosphere. This, coupled with accompanying aerodynamic lift loss experienced during the headwind-to-tailwind swing, is what collectively creates the hazardous environment for a microburst-encountering aircraft attempting to land during a thunderstorm.
Orbital magnetoconductance in the variable-range-hopping regime
The orbital magnetoconductance (MC) in the variable-range-hopping (VRH) regime is evaluated by use of a model which approximately takes into account the interference among random paths in the hopping process. Instead of logarithmic averaging the MC is obtained by the critical percolating resistor method. The small-field MC is quadratic in H; it is positive deep in the VRH regime and changes sign when the zero-field conductivity is high enough. This behavior (except for the sign change) and the relevant magnetic field scale are in agreement with recent experiments. The calculated MC is always positive for strong fields and is predicted to saturate at sufficiently large fields.
Reliability Quantification of the Flexure: A Critical Stirling Convertor Component
Uncertainties in the manufacturing, fabrication process, material behavior, loads, and boundary conditions results in the variation of the stresses and strains induced in the flexures and its fatigue life. Past experience and the test data at material coupon levels revealed a significant amount of scatter of the fatigue life. Owing to these facts, the design of the flexure, using conventional approaches based on safety factor or traditional reliability based on similar equipment considerations does not provide a direct measure of reliability. Additionally, it may not be feasible to run actual long term fatigue tests due to cost and time constraints. Therefore it is difficult to ascertain material fatigue strength limit. The objective of the paper is to present a methodology and quantified results of numerical simulation for the reliability of flexures used in the Stirling convertor for their structural performance. The proposed approach is based on application of finite element analysis method in combination with the random fatigue limit model, which includes uncertainties in material fatigue life. Additionally, sensitivity of fatigue life reliability to the design variables is quantified and its use to develop guidelines to improve design, manufacturing, quality control and inspection design process is described.
Development of an Uncertainty Model for the National Transonic Facility
This paper introduces an uncertainty model being developed for the National Transonic Facility (NTF). The model uses a Monte Carlo technique to propagate standard uncertainties of measured values through the NTF data reduction equations to calculate the combined uncertainties of the key aerodynamic force and moment coefficients and freestream properties. The uncertainty propagation approach to assessing data variability is compared with ongoing data quality assessment activities at the NTF, notably check standard testing using statistical process control (SPC) techniques. It is shown that the two approaches are complementary and both are necessary tools for data quality assessment and improvement activities. The SPC approach is the final arbiter of variability in a facility. Its result encompasses variation due to people, processes, test equipment, and test article. The uncertainty propagation approach is limited mainly to the data reduction process. However, it is useful because it helps to assess the causes of variability seen in the data and consequently provides a basis for improvement. For example, it is shown that Mach number random uncertainty is dominated by static pressure variation over most of the dynamic pressure range tested. However, the random uncertainty in the drag coefficient is generally dominated by axial and normal force uncertainty with much less contribution from freestream conditions.
Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainities for Different Mission Time Periods
Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which includes high energy protons and high charge and energy (HZE) nuclei. For long duration missions, space radiation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is essential for radiation protection of crews on long term space missions outside of the protection of the Earth s magnetic field and for optimization of mission planning and costs. For the assessment of organ dosimetric quantities and cancer risks, the particle spectra at each critical body organs must be characterized. In implementing a PRA approach, a statistical model of SPE fluence was developed, because the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature while the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. An overall cumulative probability of a GCR environment for a specified mission period was estimated for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration potential (theta). Finally, this probabilistic approach to space radiation cancer risk was coupled with a model of the radiobiological factors and uncertainties in projecting cancer risks. Probabilities of fatal cancer risk and 95% confidence intervals will be reported for various periods of space missions.
Inter-year Variability in EDS Standards
This report provides a deep dive into how the stability of energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) standards yielded insight into the shortfalls of using software to randomly select points for spectral acquisition when using heterogeneous standards. Some procedural recommendations are included which are meant to minimize the impact of anomalous reference standard spectra by detecting them before the standard is implemented into data processing.
Variabilities detected by acoustic emission from filament-wound Aramid fiber/epoxy composite pressure vessels
Two hundred and fifty Aramid fiber/epoxy pressure vessels were filament-wound over spherical aluminum mandrels under controlled conditions typical for advanced filament-winding. A random set of 30 vessels was proof-tested to 74% of the expected burst pressure; acoustic emission data were obtained during the proof test. A specially designed fixture was used to permit in situ calibration of the acoustic emission system for each vessel by the fracture of a 4-mm length of pencil lead (0.3 mm in diameter) which was in contact with the vessel. Acoustic emission signatures obtained during testing showed larger than expected variabilities in the mechanical damage done during the proof tests. To date, identification of the cause of these variabilities has not been determined.
Reassessing the MCNP Random Number Generator
Random number generators are integral components to Monte Carlo codes. They provide the pseudorandom number sequence used to actually sample the distributions of interest. As a result, they are one of the most important components to the software. The current recommended MCNP random number generator is a 63-bit linear congruential generator (LCG). This generator is quite fast, but it has some drawbacks. First, it only has a period of 2 63 . Due to the necessarily non-optimal usage of random numbers to ensure parallel reproducibility, this amount is too few to guarantee random number sequences are not reused in all configurations the code runs under. As simulation size increases, users will need to be aware of the limitations of the generator and tune configuration variables to best suit their simulations, or they will need to assume that reuse is not negatively affecting their answers. Neither of these are optimal. Second, small LCGs are fairly weak in bit generation quality, and this can have an unknown impact on the quality of the simulation. This paper is an investigation into whether or not more modern random number generators can supersede the current ones. The goal is to find a generator that is similar or superior in speed to the LCGs, has a state space large enough to make strong guarantees about random number reuse, and passes all modern random number test suites. If such a generator is found, it would eliminate the need for the user to even be aware of the limitations of the random number generator and would simplify the use of the code. This paper will be broken into several parts. Sec. 2 will discuss the evolution of the random number generator within the MCNP code. Sec. 3 will go over what a Monte Carlo code needs from a generator to be reproducible and portable and how the current generator behaves in that light. Sec. 4 goes through how each generator was tested. Finally, Sec. 5 will discuss improvements that could be made to the code.
Wind power curve modeling in complex terrain using statistical models
The simplest power curves model wind power only as a function of the wind speed at the turbine hub height. While the latter is an essential predictor of power output, wind speed information in other parts of the vertical profile, as well as additional atmospheric variables, are also important determinants of power. The goal of this work was to determine the gain in predictive ability afforded by adding wind speed information at other heights, as well as other atmospheric variables, to the power prediction model. Using data from a wind farm with a moderately complex terrain in the Altamont Pass region in California, we trained three statistical models—a neural network, a random forest and a Gaussian process model—to predict power output from various sets of aforementioned predictors. The comparison of these predictions to the observed power data revealed that considerable improvements in prediction accuracy can be achieved both through the addition of predictors other than the hub-height wind speed and the use of statistical models. To our knowledge, the use of the Gaussian process model in this context is new, in contrast to neural networks and random forests. The advantage of this model over the other two models is that it provides a much more natural way to estimate the uncertainty associated with its predictions. In addition, this study presents one of the most comprehensive analyses to date of the relative importance of various wind power curve inputs.
Iterative self-organizing SCEne-LEvel sampling (ISOSCELES) for large-scale building extraction
Convolutional neural networks (CNN) provide state-of-the-art performance in many computer vision tasks, including those related to remote-sensing image analysis. Successfully training a CNN to generalize well to unseen data, however, requires training on samples that represent the full distribution of variation of both the target classes and their surrounding contexts. With remote sensing data, acquiring a sufficiently representative training set is a challenge due to both the inherent multi-modal variability of satellite or aerial imagery and the general high cost of labeling data. To address this challenge, we have developed ISOSCELES, an Iterative Self-Organizing SCEne LEvel Sampling method for hierarchical sampling of large image sets. Using affinity propagation, ISOSCELES automates the selection of highly representative training images. Compared to random sampling or using available reference data, the distribution of the training is principally data driven, reducing the chance of oversampling uninformative areas or undersampling informative ones. In comparison to manual sample selection by an analyst, ISOSCELES exploits descriptive features, spectral and/or textural, and eliminates human bias in sample selection. Using a hierarchical sampling approach, ISOSCELES can obtain a training set that reflects both between-scene variability, such as in viewing angle and time of day, and within-scene variability at the level of individual training samples. We verify the method by demonstrating its superiority to stratified random sampling in the challenging task of adapting a pre-trained model to a new image and spatial domain for country-scale building extraction. Using a pair of hand-labeled training sets comprising 1,987 sample image chips, a total of 496,000,000 individually labeled pixels, we show, across three distinct model architectures, an increase in accuracy, as measured by F1-score, of 2.2–4.2%.
The LSST AGN Data Challenge: Selection Methods
Abstract Development of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) includes a series of Data Challenges (DCs) arranged by various LSST Scientific Collaborations that are taking place during the project's preoperational phase. The AGN Science Collaboration Data Challenge (AGNSC-DC) is a partial prototype of the expected LSST data on active galactic nuclei (AGNs), aimed at validating machine learning approaches for AGN selection and characterization in large surveys like LSST. The AGNSC-DC took place in 2021, focusing on accuracy, robustness, and scalability. The training and the blinded data sets were constructed to mimic the future LSST release catalogs using the data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 region and the XMM-Newton Large Scale Structure Survey region. Data features were divided into astrometry, photometry, color, morphology, redshift, and class label with the addition of variability features and images. We present the results of four submitted solutions to DCs using both classical and machine learning methods. We systematically test the performance of supervised models (support vector machine, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, artificial neural network, convolutional neural network) and unsupervised ones (deep embedding clustering) when applied to the problem of classifying/clustering sources as stars, galaxies, or AGNs. We obtained classification accuracy of 97.5% for supervised models and clustering accuracy of 96.0% for unsupervised ones and 95.0% with a classic approach for a blinded data set. We find that variability features significantly improve the accuracy of the trained models, and correlation analysis among different bands enables a fast and inexpensive first-order selection of quasar candidates.
Monitoring covariance in multivariate time series: Comparing machine learning and statistical approaches
Abstract In complex systems with multiple variables monitored at high‐frequency, variables are not only temporally autocorrelated, but they may also be nonlinearly related or exhibit nonstationarity as the inputs or operation changes. One approach to handling such variables is to detrend them prior to monitoring and then apply control charts that assume independence and stationarity to the residuals. Monitoring controlled systems is even more challenging because the control strategy seeks to maintain variables at prespecified mean levels, and to compensate, correlations among variables may change, making monitoring the covariance essential. In this paper, a vector autoregressive model (VAR) is compared with a multivariate random forest (MRF) and a neural network (NN) for detrending multivariate time series prior to monitoring the covariance of the residuals using a multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) control chart. Machine learning models have an advantage when the data's structure is unknown or may change. We design a novel simulation study with nonlinear, nonstationary, and autocorrelated data to compare the different detrending models and subsequent covariance monitoring. The machine learning models have superior performance for nonlinear and strongly autocorrelated data and similar performance for linear data. An illustration with data from a reverse osmosis process is given.