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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Scenario Storyline Discovery for Planning in Multi‐Actor Human‐Natural Systems Confronting Change

Scenarios have emerged as valuable tools in managing complex human-natural systems, but the traditional approach of limiting focus on a small number of predetermined scenarios can inadvertently miss consequential dynamics, extremes, and diverse stakeholder impacts. Exploratory modeling approaches have been developed to address these issues by exploring a wide range of possible futures and identifying those that yield consequential vulnerabilities. However, vulnerabilities are typically identified based on aggregate robustness measures that do not take full advantage of the richness of the underlying dynamics in the large ensembles of model simulations and can make it hard to identify key dynamics and/or storylines that can guide planning or further analyses. This study introduces the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced “forensic”): a scenario discovery framework that addresses these challenges by organizing and investigating consequential scenarios using hierarchical classification of diverse outcomes across actors, sectors, and scales, while also aiding in the selection of scenario storylines, based on system dynamics that drive consequential outcomes. We present an application of this framework to the Upper Colorado River Basin, focusing on decadal droughts and their water scarcity implications for the basin's diverse users and its obligations to downstream states through Lake Powell. We show how FRNSIC can explore alternative sets of impact metrics and drought dynamics and use them to identify drought scenario storylines, that can be used to inform future adaptation planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Two-Way Option Contracts That Facilitate Adaptive Water Reallocation in the Western United States

Many water markets in the western United States (U.S.) have the ability to reallocate water temporarily during drought, often as short-term water rights leases from lower value irrigated activities to higher value urban uses. Regulatory approval of water transfers, however, typically takes time and involves high transaction costs that arise from technical and legal analyses, discouraging short-term leasing. This leads municipalities to protect against drought-related shortfalls by purchasing large volumes of infrequently used permanent water rights. High transaction costs also result in municipal water rights rarely being leased back to irrigators in wet or normal years, reducing agricultural productivity. This research explores the development of a multi-year two-way option (TWO) contract that facilitates leasing from agricultural-to-urban users during drought and leasing from urban-to agricultural users during wet periods. The modeling framework developed to assess performance of the TWO contracts includes consideration of the hydrologic, engineered, and institutional systems governing the South Platte River Basin in Colorado where there is growing competition for water between municipalities (e.g., the city of Boulder) and irrigators. The modeling framework is built around StateMod, a network-based water allocation model used by state regulators to evaluate water rights allocations and potential rights transfers. Results suggest that the TWO contracts could allow municipalities to maintain supply reliability with significantly reduced rights holdings at lower cost, while increasing agricultural productivity in wet and normal years. Additionally, the TWO contracts provide irrigators with additional revenues via net payments of option fees from municipalities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Declining Reservoir Reliability and Increasing Reservoir Vulnerability: Long-Term Observations Reveal Longer and More Severe Periods of Low Reservoir Storage for Major United States Reservoirs

Hydrological drought is a pervasive and reoccurring challenge in managing water resources. Reservoirs are critical for lessening the impacts of drought on water available for many uses. We use a novel and generalized approach to identify periods of unusually low reservoir storage—via comparisons to operational rule curves and historical patterns—to investigate how droughts affect storage in 250 reservoirs across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). We find that the maximum amount of water stored in reservoirs is decreasing, and that periods of unusually low storage are becoming longer, more severe, and more variable in (a) western and central CONUS reservoirs, and (b) reservoirs with primarily over-year storage. Results suggest that reservoir storage has become less reliable and more vulnerable to larger deviations from desired storage patterns. These changes have coincided with ongoing shifts to the hydroclimate of CONUS, and with sedimentation further reducing available reservoir storage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

River Dissolved Oxygen Prediction Using Machine Learning Models and Wireless Sensor Measurements

Simultaneous flooding&heat and droughts&heat events can potentially destabilize hydro-meteorological conditions to deteriorate the water quality of Neches River. Machine learning (ML) models utilizing wireless sensor measurements have been applied to predict water quality and optimize various water management strategies. This study aims to develop ML models to predict dissolved oxygen (DO) prediction under various hydro-meteorological conditions and enhance water management decision-making. Wireless sensor measurements of DO, water temperature, sample depth, conductivity, turbidity, and pH, along with discharge from the United States Geological Survey stations, are collected for model inputs at the Pine Island Bayou C749 station (PIB-C749) and Neches River Saltwater Barrier (SWB). Multilayer perceptron neural networks, recurrent neural networks, long short-term memory (LSTM), and bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) with and without attention mechanism (AT) are tested to determine the best model, which is applied the rolling forecast method to predict 14-day DO. Traditional and recurrent transfer learning (TL and RTL) methods are adopted to overcome insufficient data at the SWB. The input feature importance analysis using the integrated gradients (IG) algorithm is applied to determine dominant inputs. The results show LSTM-based models are capable handling long sequential data. AT-BiLSTM and RTL-LSTM demonstrate the best performance at the PIB-C749 (RMSE=0.054) and the SWB (RMSE=0.028), respectively. TL and RTL methods significantly improve model performance at the SWB. DO, temperature, and pH show higher importance, consistent with hydrodynamics and water chemistry. Both best models are applied to predict 14-day DO and demonstrate reasonable performance for decision-making. Hydro-meteorological conditions of 2017 flood and 2012 drought events are simulated and reveal that possible hypoxia occurs after flooding due to increasing temperature and turbidity, and DO concentration decreases significantly under heat and drought conditions. In conclusion, LSTM-based models utilizing wireless sensor data can be a timely and effective approach to make appropriate decisions on water resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Response of salt intrusion in a tidal estuary to regional climatic forcing

Abstract Salinity distribution in a large tidal estuary is subject to estuarine adjustment under the influences of multiple physical drivers such as freshwater pulses and sea level rise, and is crucial to upstream water quality, aquaculture, and ecosystem functions of the estuary. To better understand the estuarine salinity response to climate change, the unstructured-grid Finite Volume Community Ocean Model was implemented to simulate the salt intrusion in the Delaware Bay Estuary. The model was first validated by multiple observational data sets and subsequently applied in an idealized setting to examine the response of salt front to freshwater pulses in high flow conditions, followed by a long-term drought condition supported by a multi-decadal streamflow drought analysis in the estuary. The model results showed that after the freshwater pulses the salt front location moved further upstream with sea level rise. Under the simulated long-term drought condition, the adjustment timescale of salt intrusion varies nonlinearly with sea level rise. With a significant increase in sea level rise, the adjustment timescale starts to decrease. This shift suggests a transition into a different regime where the estuary becomes more stratified, as indicated by an increasing bulk Simpson number with rising sea levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tonoplast Sucrose Trafficking Modulates Starch Utilization and Water Deficit Behavior in Poplar Leaves

Leaf osmotic adjustment by the active accrual of compatible organic solutes (e.g. sucrose) contributes to drought tolerance throughout the plant kingdom. In Populus tremula x alba, PtaSUT4 encodes a tonoplast sucrose–proton symporter, whose downregulation by chronic mild drought or transgenic manipulation is known to increase leaf sucrose and turgor. While this may constitute a single drought tolerance mechanism, we now report that other adjustments which can occur during a worsening water deficit are damped when PtaSUT4 is constitutively downregulated. Specifically, we report that starch use and leaf relative water content (RWC) dynamics were compromised when plants with constitutively downregulated PtaSUT4 were subjected to a water deficit. Leaf RWC decreased more in wild-type and vector control lines than in transgenic PtaSUT4-RNAi (RNA-interference) or CRISPR (clustered regularly interspersed short palindromic repeats) knockout (KO) lines. The control line RWC decrease was accompanied by increased PtaSUT4 transcript levels and a mobilization of sucrose from the mesophyll-enriched leaf lamina into the midvein. The findings suggest that changes in SUT4 expression can increase turgor or decrease RWC as different tolerance mechanisms to reduced water availability. Evidence is presented that PtaSUT4-mediated sucrose partitioning between the vacuole and the cytosol is important not only for overall sucrose abundance and turgor, but also for reactive oxygen species (ROS) and antioxidant dynamics. Interestingly, the reduced capacity for accelerated starch breakdown under worsening water-deficit conditions was correlated with reduced ROS in the RNAi and KO lines. A role for PtaSUT4 in the orchestration of ROS, antioxidant, starch utilization and RWC dynamics during water stress and its importance in trees especially, with their high hydraulic resistances, is considered.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

A test of the hydraulic vulnerability segmentation hypothesis in angiosperm and conifer tree species

Water transport from soils to the atmosphere is critical for plant growth and survival. However, we have a limited understanding about many portions of the whole-tree hydraulic pathway, because the vast majority of published information is on terminal branches. Our understanding of mature tree trunk hydraulic physiology, in particular, is limited. The hydraulic vulnerability segmentation hypothesis (HVSH) stipulates that distal portions of the plant (leaves, branches and roots) should be more vulnerable to embolism than trunks, which are non-redundant organs that require a massive carbon investment. In the current study, we compared vulnerability to loss of hydraulic function, leaf and xylem water potentials and the resulting hydraulic safety margins (in relation to the water potential causing 50% loss of hydraulic conductivity) in leaves, branches, trunks and roots of four angiosperms and four conifer tree species. Across all species, our results supported strongly the HVSH as leaves and roots were less resistant to embolism than branches or trunks. However, branches were consistently more resistant to embolism than any other portion of the plant, including trunks. Also, calculated whole-tree vulnerability to hydraulic dysfunction was much greater than vulnerability in branches. This was due to hydraulic dysfunction in roots and leaves at less negative water potentials than those causing branch or trunk dysfunction. Leaves and roots had narrow or negative hydraulic safety margins, but trunks and branches maintained positive safety margins. By using branch-based hydraulic information as a proxy for entire plants, much research has potentially overestimated embolism resistance, and possibly drought tolerance, for many species. This study highlights the necessity to reconsider past conclusions made about plant resistance to drought based on branch xylem only. As a result, this study also highlights the necessity for more research of whole-plant hydraulic physiology to better understand strategies of plant drought tolerance and the critical control points within the hydraulic pathway.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Storms Are an Important Driver of Change in Tropical Forests

Tropical forest dynamics and composition have changed over recent decades, but the proximate drivers of these changes remain unclear. Investigations into these trends have focused on increasing drought stress, CO 2 , temperature, and fires, whereas convective storms are generally overlooked. We argue that existing literature provides clear support for the importance of storms as drivers of forest change. We reanalyze the largest plot-based study of tropical forest carbon dynamics to show that lightning frequency—an indicator of storm activity—strongly predicts forest carbon storage and residence time, and its inclusion improves model fit and weakens evidence for the effects of high temperatures. Convective storm activity has increased 5%–25% per decade over the past half century. Extrapolating from historic trends, we estimate that storms likely contribute ca. 50% of the reported increases in biomass mortality across Amazonia, with all realistic combinations of assumptions indicating a possible range of 12%–118%. Spatial variation in storm activity shows weak relationships with drought, demonstrating that forests can experience high drought stress, high storm activity, or both. Accordingly, we hypothesise that convective storms are among the most important drivers of tropical forest change, and as such, they require significant research investment to avoid misguiding science, policy, and management.

biomass carbon↗
DOE OSTI2015

A cross-biome synthesis of soil respiration and its determinants under simulated precipitation changes

Soil respiration (R s ) is the second-largest terrestrial carbon (C) flux. Although R s has been extensively studied across a broad range of biomes, there is surprisingly little consensus on how the spatiotemporal patterns of Rs will be altered in a warming climate with changing precipitation regimes. Here, we present a global synthesis Rs data from studies that have manipulated precipitation in the field by collating studies from 113 increased precipitation treatments, 91 decreased precipitation treatments, and 14 prolonged drought treatments. Our meta-analysis indicated that when the increased precipitation treatments were normalized to 28% above the ambient level, the soil moisture, R s ,and the temperature sensitivity (Q 10 ) values increased by an average of 17%, 16%, and 6%, respectively, and the soil temperature decreased by -1.3%. The greatest increases in R s and Q 10 were observed in arid areas, and the stimulation rates decreased with increases in climate humidity. When the decreased precipitation treatments were normalized to 28% below the ambient level, the soil moisture and Rs values decreased by an average of -14% and -17%, respectively, and the soil temperature and Q 10 values were not altered. The reductions in soil moisture tended to be greater in more humid areas. Prolonged drought without alterations in the amount of precipitation reduced the soil moisture and Rs by -12% and -6%, respectively, but did not alter Q 10 . Overall, our synthesis suggests that soil moisture and Rs tend to be more sensitive to increased precipitation in more arid areas and more responsive to decreased precipitation in more humid areas. The responses of R s and Q 10 were predominantly driven by precipitation-induced changes in the soil moisture, whereas changes in the soil temperature had limited impacts. Finally, our synthesis of prolonged drought experiments also emphasizes the importance of the timing and frequency of precipitation events on ecosystem C cycles. Given these findings, we urge future studies to focus on manipulating the frequency, intensity, and seasonality of precipitation with an aim to improving our ability to predict and model feedback between R s and climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Climate regime shift and forest loss amplify fire in Amazonian forests

Frequent Amazonian fires over the last decade have raised the alarm about the fate of the Earth's most biodiverse forest. The increased fire frequency has been attributed to altered hydrological cycles. However, observations over the past few decades have demonstrated hydrological changes that may have opposing impacts on fire, including higher basin-wide precipitation and increased drought frequency and severity. Here, we use multiple satellite observations and climate reanalysis datasets to demonstrate compelling evidence of increased fire susceptibility in response to climate regime shifts across Amazonia. In this work, we show that accumulated forest loss since 2000 warmed and dried the lower atmosphere, which reduced moisture recycling and resulted in increased drought extent and severity, and subsequent fire. Extremely dry and wet events accompanied with hot days have been more frequent in Amazonia due to climate shift and forest loss. Simultaneously, intensified water vapor transport from the tropical Pacific and Atlantic increased high-altitude atmospheric humidity and heavy rainfall events, but those events did not alleviate severe and long-lasting droughts. Amazonia fire risk is most significant in the southeastern region where tropical savannas undergo long seasonally dry periods. We also find that fires have been expanding through the wet-dry transition season and northward to savanna-forest transition and tropical seasonal forest regions in response to increased forest loss at the "Arc of Deforestation." Tropical forests, which have adapted to historically moist conditions, are less resilient and easily tip into an alternative state. Our results imply forest conservation and fire protection options to reduce the stress from positive feedback between forest loss, climate change, and fire.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long‐term yields in annual and perennial bioenergy crops in the Midwestern United States

Abstract Many yield predictions in perennial bioenergy species have been made based on data collected during the establishment phase of growth or a limited number of long‐term studies. Few studies compare multiple perennial crops with the dominant agricultural vegetation of the landscape over long time periods. Here, we present the results of 11 years of perennial crop management on fertile agricultural soils in central Illinois, compared with conventional row crop maize/soybean ( Zea mays L., Glycine max L.) production. We examined the long‐term productivity and drought susceptibility of Miscanthus x giganteus Greef et. Deu. ex. Hodkinson et Renvoize (miscanthus), Panicum virgatum L., Cave‐in‐Rock cultivar (switchgrass), and a native prairie mix, in contrast to annual maize/soybean agriculture. Long‐term yields for miscanthus and switchgrass failed to reach initial predictions made during the establishment phase; however, in miscanthus, the 11 th year of production shows little progressive yield loss with age, exceeding the modeled limit for the onset of age‐related decline. Harvest timing and differences in yields from hand and machine harvests in perennial crops likely contribute to overestimates of potential yields. Application of fertilizer to mature miscanthus resulted in significant increases in yield after a severe drought, though modeled effects of management and drought in miscanthus point to a more complex mechanism for yield response.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data for: Spatial access and resource limitations control carbon mineralization in soils

This dataset contains data and code used for the paper "Spatial access and resource limitations control carbon mineralization in soils", https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2021.108427. Core-scale soil carbon fluxes are ultimately regulated by pore-scale dynamics of substrate availability and microbial access. These are constrained by physicochemical and biochemical phenomena (e.g. spatial access and hydrologic connectivity, physical occlusion, adsorption-desorption with mineral surfaces, nutrient and resource limitations). We conducted an experiment to determine how spatial access and resource limitations influence core-scale water-soluble soil organic matter (SOM) mineralization, and how these are regulated by antecedent moisture conditions. Intact soil cores were incubated at field-moist vs. drought conditions, after which they were saturated from above (to simulate precipitation) or below (to simulate groundwater recharge). Soluble carbon (acetate) and nitrogen (nitrate) forms were added to some cores during the rewetting process to alleviate potential nutrient limitations. Soil respiration was measured during the incubation, after which pore water was extracted from the saturated soils and analyzed for water soluble organic carbon concentrations and characterization. Our results showed that carbon (C) amendments increased the cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) evolved from the soil cores, suggesting that the soils were C-limited. Drought and rewetting increased soil respiration, and there was a greater abundance of complex aromatic molecules in pore waters sampled from these soils. This newly available substrate appeared to alleviate nutrient limitations on respiration, because there were no further respiration increases with subsequent C and N amendments. We had hypothesized that respiration would be influenced by wetting direction, as simulated precipitation would mobilize C from the surface. However, as a main effect, this response was seen only in the C-amended soils, indicating that surface-C may not have been bioavailable. At the pore scale (pore water samples), drought and the C, N amendments caused a net loss of identified molecules when the soils were rewet from below, whereas wetting from above caused a net increase in identified molecules, suggesting that fresh inputs stimulated the C-and N-limited microbial populations present deeper in the soil profile. Our experiment highlights the complex and interactive role of antecedent moisture conditions, wetting direction, and resource limitations in driving core-scale C fluxes.This dataset contains a compressed (.zip) archive of the data and R scripts used for this manuscript. The dataset includes files in .csv format, which can be accessed and processed using MS Excel or R. This archive can also be accessed on GitHub at https://github.com/kaizadp/TES_spatial_access_2021 (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.5522938).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Final Technical Report for Department of Energy Award DE-SC0010857, “Towards parameterization of root-rock hydrologic interactions in the Earth System Model”

The goal of the project is to understand how plants survive droughts, as the decimation of transpiration could shift the surface energy balance from latent heat to sensible heat, leading to warming of the lower atmosphere and amplification of drought. The hypothesis we investigated is that there is a store of moisture in the weathered bedrock below the organic soil mantle, so that plants that have roots deep enough to access this moisture reservoir could survive drought. We developed a new stochastic parameterization of hydraulic conductivity that introduces heterogeneity into the traditional formulation and captures the preferential flow through the weathered bedrock (Vrettas and Fung, 2015). With the new parameterization in the Richards equation, we succeeded in reproducing the fluctuations of the water table in seven well locations over six years. We also and carried out a series of model experiments that explore how subsurface properties impact evapotranspiration (ET) in a Mediterranean climate where a significant portion of ET is observed to take place in the dry and sunny summer when the precipitation is insufficient to meet the demand. Our results show that hydraulic redistribution is important for sustaining ET in the dry seasons when the vertical gradient in water potential is large. The results highlight the importance of lithology, species composition and root function for ET, especially under dry conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Comparative Genomics Analysis Provides New Insight Into Molecular Basis of Stomatal Movement in Kalanchoë fedtschenkoi

CO 2 uptake and water loss in plants are regulated by microscopic pores on the surface of leaves, called stomata. This enablement of gas exchange by the opening and closing of stomata is one of the most essential processes in plant photosynthesis and transpiration, affecting water-use efficiency (WUE) and thus drought susceptibility. In plant species with crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) photosynthesis, diel stomatal movement pattern is inverted relative to C 3 and C 4 photosynthesis species, resulting in much higher WUE and drought tolerance. However, little is known about the molecular basis of stomatal movement in CAM species. The goal of this study is to identify candidate genes that could play a role in stomatal movement in an obligate CAM species, Kalanchoë fedtschenkoi . By way of a text-mining approach, proteins were identified in various plant species, spanning C 3 , C 4 , and CAM photosynthetic types, which are orthologous to proteins known to be involved in stomatal movement. A comparative analysis of diel time-course gene expression data was performed between K. fedtschenkoi and two C 3 species (i.e., Arabidopsis thaliana and Solanum lycopersicum) to identify differential gene expression between the dusk and dawn phases of the 24-h cycle. A rescheduled catalase gene known to be involved in stomatal movement was identified, suggesting a role for H 2 O 2 in CAM-like stomatal movement. Overall, these results provide new insights into the molecular regulation of stomatal movement in CAM plants, facilitating genetic improvement of drought resistance in agricultural crops through manipulation of stomata-related genes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

A MODIS Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI) as an Estimator of Isoprene Emissions in a Temperate Deciduous Forest

The quantification of isoprene and monoterpene emissions at the ecosystem level with available models and field measurements is not entirely satisfactory. Remote-sensing techniques can extend the spatial and temporal assessment of isoprenoid fluxes. Detecting the exchange of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) using these techniques is, however, a very challenging goal. Recent evidence suggests that a simple remotely sensed index, the photochemical reflectance index (PRI), which is indicative of light-use efficiency, relative pigment levels and excess reducing power, is a good indirect estimator of foliar isoprenoid emissions. We tested the ability of PRI to assess isoprenoid fluxes in a temperate deciduous forest in central USA throughout the entire growing season and under moderate and extreme drought conditions. We then compared PRI time series calculated with MODIS bands to isoprene emissions measured with eddy covariance. MODIS PRI was correlated with isoprene emissions for most of the season, until emissions peaked. MODIS PRI was also able to detect the timing of the annual peak of emissions, even when it was advanced in response to drought conditions. PRI is thus a promising index to estimate isoprene emissions when it is complemented by information on potential emission. It may also be used to further improve models of isoprene emission under drought and other stress conditions. Direct estimation of isoprene emission by PRI is, however, limited, because PRI estimates LUE, and the relationship between LUE and isoprene emissions can be modified by severe stress conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Concurrent Changes in Extreme Hydroclimate Events in the Colorado River Basin

Extreme events resulting in catastrophic damage have more than doubled in the last five years, costing hundreds of lives and thousands of homes, and heavily undermining regional economic stability. At present, most of these hydroclimatic extreme events are documented by the media as individual events; however, in scientific terms, many are better understood as concurrent events—concurrent extremes of both temperature and precipitation (e.g., drought, floods). This paper considers concurrent changes in hydroclimate extremes, including heatwaves, drought, flooding, and low flows, in six historical-to-future (1970–1999, 2070–2099) Earth System Model (ESM) climate scenarios for the Colorado River basin. Results indicate that temperature-driven Impacts (heatwaves, drought) have the strongest responses while precipitation-driven Impacts have weaker responses. All Impacts exhibit an increase in magnitude from synoptic to annual time scales, with heatwaves increasing in strength about three times at the annual time scale versus the synoptic, while low flows only increase slightly. Critical watersheds in the Colorado were identified, highlighting the Blue River basin, Uncompahgre, East Taylor, Salt/Verde watersheds, locations of important water infrastructures, water resources, and hydrological research. Our results indicate that concurrent extreme hydroclimate events are projected to increase in the future and intensify within critical regions of the Colorado River basin. Considering extreme hydroclimate events concurrently is an important step towards linking economic and social effects of these events and their associated instabilities on a regional scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Intensification of North American Megadroughts through Surface and Dust Aerosol Forcing

Tree-ring-based reconstructions of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) indicate that, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the central plains of North America experienced recurrent periods of drought spanning decades or longer. These megadroughts had exceptional persistence compared to more recent events, but the causes remain uncertain. The authors conducted a suite of general circulation model experiments to test the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) and land surface forcing on the MCA megadroughts over the central plains. The land surface forcing is represented as a set of dune mobilization boundary conditions, derived from available geomorphological evidence and modeled as increased bare soil area and a dust aerosol source (32deg-44degN, 105deg-95degW). In the experiments, cold tropical Pacific SST forcing suppresses precipitation over the central plains but cannot reproduce the overall drying or persistence seen in the PDSI reconstruction. Droughts in the scenario with dust aerosols, however, are amplified and have significantly longer persistence than in other model experiments, more closely matching the reconstructed PDSI. This additional drying occurs because the dust increases the shortwave planetary albedo, reducing energy inputs to the surface and boundary layer. The energy deficit increases atmospheric stability, inhibiting convection and reducing cloud cover and precipitation over the central plains. Results from this study provide the first model-based evidence that dust aerosol forcing and land surface changes could have contributed to the intensity and persistence of the central plains megadroughts, although uncertainties remain in the formulation of the boundary conditions and the future importance of these feedbacks.

Earth surface↗
NASA NTRS2015

Causes of Interannual to Decadal Variability of Gila River Streamflow over the Past Century

Study region: The Gila River, New Mexico, is characterized by two peaks in streamflow: one in the winter-spring (December-May), and summer (August-September). The region is influenced both by Pacific SST variability as well as the North American Monsoon. Study focus: The mechanisms responsible for the variability of the winter-spring and summer streamflow peaks are investigated by correlation of streamflow with precipitation and sea surface temperature for 1928-2012. Decadal variability in the flow record is examined for a longer term perspective on Gila River streamflow using tree ring-based reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). New hydrological insights for the region: Results indicate a strong influence of winter-spring precipitation and Pacific SST anomalies on the winter-spring streamflow, with El Nino conditions in the Pacific causing increased precipitation and streamflow. Decadal Pacific variability helps explain the transition from high winter flow in the late 20th century to lower flows in the most recent decade. The summer streamflow has a somewhat weaker correlation with precipitation and Pacific SST than the winter-spring streamflow. Its variability is more likely influenced by local North American Monsoon precipitation variability. PDSI and SPI reconstructions indicate much more severe and extended periods of droughts and pluvials in past centuries as well as periods of concurrent winter and summer drought.

drought↗