Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Engineering - Particle accelerators”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Surrogates for Valve-Controlled Pipe Flow: Accelerating Nuclear Reactor Design

Neural surrogate models are developed to replace expensive steady-state RANS CFD simulations for valve-controlled pipe flow in nuclear reactor design. Using parametric CFD data generated with MOOSE Pronghorn across a range of valve geometry and flow conditions, three approaches are compared: a POD-based reduced-order model, a structured UNet on a cylindrical grid, and unstructured models (DeepONet and BiStride MeshGraphNet) on nondimensionalized point clouds. POD achieves the highest accuracy (99%) with fast inference but requires storing all solution snapshots, while the DeepONet and BSMS-GNN both achieve ~89% accuracy at sub-second inference, with the BSMS-GNN offering superior geometric generalizability. These surrogates enable rapid ranking of candidate valve designs and can warm-start CFD solvers to accelerate convergence, supporting agentic design iteration on the Prometheus platform.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Optimal decision-making in high-throughput virtual screening pipelines

Screening large pools of molecular candidates to identify those with specific design criteria or targeted properties is demanding in various science and engineering domains. While a high-throughput virtual screening (HTVS) pipeline can provide efficient means to achieving this goal, its design and operation often rely on experts' intuition, potentially resulting in suboptimal performance. In this paper, we fill this critical gap by presenting a systematic framework that can maximize the return on computational investment (ROCI) of such HTVS campaigns. Based on various scenarios, we empirically validate the proposed framework and demonstrate its potential to accelerate scientific discoveries through optimal computational campaigns, especially in the context of virtual screening.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

On a Possibility of the Overgrowth of Diamonds in the Hydrocarbon Atmosphere

The possibility to increase sizes of diamond crystals at least 25 μm by means of their annealing at a temperature of 1450 K in a hydrocarbon atmosphere has been studied. The initial diamond crystals are incorporated in the polyvinyl acetate layer on the surface of a silicon monocrystal and subjected to the annealing in methane atmosphere with low pressure in the presence of an external electric field with intensity up to 0.04 V/μm. Under these conditions the charged ions of methane dissociation products are accelerated and acquire the kinetic energy that is comparable with energy sufficient to form sp{sup 3}-hybride bonds, which can lead to an increase in the sizes of initial seed crystallites. The obtained substrates of a composite with a typical thickness not higher than 1.2 mm, which contain a joined diamond crystal in the carbon matrix, can be used as thermal conductive and electrical insulating spacers in devices for cooling items of electronic engineering.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Predicting non-linear stress–strain response of mesostructured cellular materials using supervised autoencoder

Recent breakthroughs in advanced manufacturing capabilities have made it possible to design and print sophisticated topologies of cellular structures using diverse engineering materials such as metals, polymers, and ceramics. In these architectured materials, it is often desirable to tailor the mechanical properties by altering the unit cell topology. This necessitates an in-depth understanding of how the topology of the unit cell structure affects the macroscopic behavior of the material in both the linear and the non-linear regimes encountered under large compression. Here, we have developed a machine learning (ML) approach capable of accelerating the prediction of the stress–strain response of a polymer-based cellular structure under uniaxial confined compression. As part of generating the training data for ML, 60,000 mesostructures were generated using a relatively novel approach based on cellular automata, and their corresponding stress–strain responses were obtained from the finite element simulations. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to reduce the dimensionality of the stress–strain curves. With only 20 principal components, PCA captured 99.89% of the variance in the stress–strain curves while reducing the dimensionality by 5X. ML using supervised autoencoder was able to successfully speed up the prediction of the non-linear stress–strain response of a unit cell by up to 4600X. The proposed method can serve as an efficient data generation tool and a rapid means for predicting the structure–property relationship through accelerated forward modeling of cellular materials under compaction, in cases where the macroscopic stress–strain response is governed by the unit-cell topology.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Scaling patch analysis of turbulent planar plume

Proper scaling in turbulent planar plumes is investigated in this study using a scaling patch approach. Based on the scaled boundary conditions, a proper velocity scale for the mean axial flow is the plume centerline velocity U ref = U ctr , and a proper temperature scale for the temperature excess is Θ ref = T ctr – T ∞ , where T ctr is the plume centerline temperature and T ∞ is the ambient fluid temperature. By seeking an admissible scaling, a key concept in the scaling patch approach, for the mean continuity, mean momentum, and mean energy equations, respectively, the following is found: (1) a proper scale for the mean transverse flow is V ref = ( d δ / d x ) U ctr , where d δ / d x is the growth rate of the plume width. (2) A proper scale for the Reynolds shear stress is R vu , ref = U ctr V ref = ( d δ / d x ) U ctr 2 , a mix of the scales for the mean axial and transverse flows. (3) A proper scale for the turbulent heat flux is R v θ , ref = V ref Θ ctr , a mix of the scales for the mean transverse flow and mean temperature excess. The mean transverse flow thus plays a critical role in the scaling of turbulent planar plumes. Approximate functions are developed for the scaled mean transverse flow, Reynolds shear stress, and turbulent temperature flux, and are found to agree favorably with experimental and numerical simulation data. The integral analysis of the mean momentum equation yields a Richardson number Ri, which remains invariant in the axial direction. The Richardson number is defined as Ri = def g β Θ ctr δ t / ( U ctr V ref ) ≈ 1 / 2 , where g is the gravitational acceleration, β is the thermal expansion coefficient, and δ t is the plume half-width based on the mean temperature profile. This Richardson number arises directly from the scaling patch analysis of the mean momentum equation, including both the streamwise and transverse velocity scales.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Experiments and Simulations on the Turbulent, Rarefaction Wave Driven Rayleigh–Taylor Instability

Experiments were performed to observe the growth of the turbulent, Rayleigh–Taylor unstable mixing layer generated between air and SF 6 , with an Atwood number of A=(ρ 2 –ρ 1 )/(ρ 2 +ρ 1 ) = 0.64, where ρ 1 and ρ 2 are the densities of air and SF 6 , respectively. A nonconstant acceleration with an average value of 2300g 0 , where g 0 is the acceleration due to gravity, was generated by interaction of the interface between the two gases with a rarefaction wave. Three-dimensional, multimode perturbations were generated on the diffuse interface, with a diffusion layer thickness of δ = 3.6 mm, using a membraneless vertical oscillation technique, and 20 experiments were performed to establish a statistical ensemble. The average perturbation from this ensemble was extracted and used as input for a numerical simulation using the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Miranda code. Good qualitative agreement between the experiment and simulation was observed, while quantitative agreement was best at early to intermediate times. Several methods were used to extract the turbulent growth constant α from experiments and simulations while accounting for time varying acceleration. Experimental, average bubble and spike asymptotic self-similar growth rate values range from α = 0.022 to α = 0.032 depending on the method used, and accounting for variable acceleration. Values found from the simulations range from α = 0.024 to α = 0.041. Here, the values of α measured in the experiments are lower than what are typically measured in the literature but are more in line with those found in recent simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Magnetic Microcalorimeter Gamma Detectors with Ultra-High Energy Resolution. Final Report

The goal of this project was to build a commercially viable metallic microcalorimeter (MMC) g-spectrometer with an ultra-high energy resolution <50 eV for accurate non-destructive assay (NDA) of nuclear materials. Improved NDA simplifies and accelerates safeguards analyses in the nuclear fuel cycle and enhances capabilities to detect the diversion of nuclear materials for illicit purposes. High-resolution MMC g-spectrometers can also improve the accuracy of nuclear data that NDA is based on.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Assessment of Electrode Contamination Mitigation at 0.5 MA Scale

The Z Machine at Sandia National Laboratories uses current pulses with peaks up to 27 MA to drive target implosions and generate high energy density conditions of interest for stockpile stewardship programs pertinent to the NNSA program portfolio . Physical processes in the region near the Z Machine target create electrode plasmas which seed parasitic current loss that reduce the performance and output of a Z experiment. Electrode surface contaminants (hydrogen, water, hydrocarbons) are thought to be the primary constituent of electrode plasmas which contribute to loss mechanisms. The Sandia team explore d in situ heating and plasma discharge techniques by integrating requisite infrastructure into Sandia's Mykonos LTD accelerator, addressing potential impacts to accelerator operation, and reporting on the impact of these techniques on electrode plasma formation and shot performance. The in situ discharge cleaning utilizes the electrodes of the accelerator to excite an argon-oxygen plasma to sputter and chemically react contaminants from electrode surfaces. Insulating breaks are required to isolate the plasma in electrode regions where loss processes are most likely to occur. The shots on Mykonos validate that these breaks do not perturb experiment performance, reducing the uncertainty on the largest unknown about the in situ cleaning system. Preliminary observations with electrical and optical diagnostics suggest that electrode plasma formation is delayed, and overall inventory has been substantively reduced. In situ heating embeds cartridge heaters into accelerator electrodes and employs a thermal bakeout to rapidly desorb contaminants from electrode surfaces. For the first time, additively manufactured (AM) electrode assemblies were used on a low impedance accelerator to integrate cooling channels and manage thermal gradients. Challenges with poor supplier fabrication to specifications, load alignment, thermal expansion and hardware movement and warpage appears to have introduced large variability in observed loss, though, preventing strong assertions of loss reduction via in situ heating. At this time, an in situ discharge cleaning process offers the lowest risk path to reduce electrode contaminant inventories on Z, though we recommend continuing to develop both approaches. Additional engineering and testing are required to improve the implementation of both systems. .

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

PARTITIONING AND TRANSMUTATION OF USED NUCLEAR FUEL IN SUPPORT OF GEOLOGICAL WASTE DISPOSAL

Nuclear energy is a low-carbon technology that generates bulk baseload electricity and supports long-lasting eco-friendly sustainability goals. However, it still faces challenges, such as the securing and managing of long-lived nuclear actinides and fission products—most notably the used fuel, which is considered high-level waste (HLW). Direct geological waste disposal would be the most economical option for HLW but requires highly qualified sites whose geophysical behavior will remain stable for 10,000 years. Partitioning and transmutation (P&T) of used fuel reduces radioactivity and decay heat generation, enabling efficient geological waste disposal. P&T research and development, along with the prospects of P&T techniques such as wet/dry separation and accelerator-driven systems, were reviewed to identify critical needs that must be met to foster their successful implementation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Plasma-Coupled Flow Reactor Studies of Low-Temperature Plasma Assisted Kinetics of Methanol Blended with CO2

Ignition technologies based on low-temperature plasmas (LTP) have the potential to operate next generation engines at elevated pressures and increased dilution limits promoting higher efficiencies. From a practical standpoint, research on LTP igniters has shown to enhance combustion and ignition, improve flame stability, and extend the dilution limits of combustion. All of the aforementioned gains are complemented with higher ignition efficiencies. However, the biggest challenge with incorporating this technology into engines is the knowledge gap of how exactly plasma chemistry effects can enhance the basic combustion phenomena. This coupled with the lack of validated kinetic mechanisms for plasma-combustion chemistry is the biggest obstruction to recognize efficient ignition, especially for application relevant fuels and biofuels. In order to comprehensively evaluate the effects of LTP on an oxygenated fuel specific system, this present study examines the kinetics of methanol plasma-assisted pyrolysis and oxidation using a custom-built plasma flow reactor (PFR). Experimental regimes are also further extended to understand the effects of adding CO2 to the mixture and its consequence on reaction kinetics. The PFR is installed with a dielectric-barrier discharge (DBD) configuration to induce LTP into the fuel mixture. Non-equilibrium plasmas are generated by high-voltage pulses (nearing 20 KV) administered by a plasma pulser at high-pulse repetition rates (up to 10 kHz). In order to better understand and isolate plasma chemistry and its effect on neutral chemistry, the experiments were carried out by heavily diluting reactive mixtures in nitrogen at near isothermal conditions. This suppresses the effect of exothermic reactions on chemistry allowing stable intermediates and products to be detected and quantified using ex-situ GC/MS diagnostic methods. Experiments were carried out at 0.5 atm pressure and over a wide range of temperatures from 523 K to 1203 K. Experimental results depicted the enhancement in intermediates production as well as overall lower temperatures required for complete fuel consumption in the plasma specific cases as opposed to their pure thermal counterpart. Formation of oxygenated and nitrile compounds specific to plasma assisted pyrolysis cases illustrated the efficacy of LTP to introduce new reaction pathways accelerating fuel decomposition. Increase in reactivity at lower temperatures is sought to be an effect induced by plasma chemistry postulating the acceleration in intermediates production. The onset of thermal ignition in plasma assisted oxidation is seen 200 K earlier than thermal oxidation highlighting efficient fuel conversion to final byproducts. Enhanced collisional processes afforded by LTP is seen to perturb reaction pathways between oxygenated fuel radicals and N-atoms to alter overall chemical reactivity. New insights into kinetics are gained from this study highlighting governing plasma assisted combustion (PAC) pathways for oxygenated fuel reaction chemistry. The results from this study can be used to develop future mechanisms specific to plasma chemistry which can bridge the mechanistic knowledge gap for LTP ignition so that future engines can adopt LTPs in their design for efficient combustion.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

U.S. Fusion D-Li Neutron Irradiation Facility: Fusion Prototypic Neutron Source (FPNS) Technology Study

A primary engineering challenge for the realization of fusion energy involves the development of high-performance structural and plasma-facing materials with dimensional stability and resistance to neutron degradation of mechanical properties. The harsh fusion environment, including high levels of helium production and other transmutation products along with high operating temperatures, poses an extreme challenge for materials. Identifying materials that can withstand these conditions is a high priority for fusion energy research. Critical to resolving this gap in scientific understanding is developing a neutron source facility with the ability to mimic the extreme conditions in a fusion reactor. Working with the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Fusion Energy Sciences (FES), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the Virtual Laboratory for Technology (VLT) organized a workshop to discuss the need for a Fusion Prototypic Neutron Source (FPNS). [1] While there are a variety of uses for FPNS neutrons, the main driver of US interest is expanding the scientific understanding of materials degradation in the deuterium-tritium (D-T) fusion environment. FPNS will help build the scientific foundation required to enable design of a next step fusion device. Using specifications from previous projects as a guide, key parameters were agreed upon for a near term, moderate cost US facility that would be complementary to the more extensive plans of the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF). Types of facilities that could potentially meet those criteria were identified. A scoping study for three technologies was initiated to answer three critical questions: 1) Can the concept meet the key parameters, 2) What is the estimated cost, and 3) What is the estimated schedule. One approach selected for the scoping study is a D-Li stripping source similar to the design of the IFMIF but at a lower beam power and atomic displacement rate for cost and schedule reasons. The purpose of this report is to document the results of the D-Li stripping source option study, providing answers to the three questions. The approach to generating a fusion prototypic neutron source using a deuteron beam incident on a flowing lithium target has been studied for more than 40 years. As a result of the research and development recently executed primarily in Europe and Japan, the ability of this approach to meet key parameters (damage parameters, irradiation volume) outlined in the US workshop for a near-term, moderate cost fusion prototypic neutron source facility is not in doubt. The main question that must be answered is the cost of such a facility. As a result, a strong focus was placed on understanding alternatives for developing the facility and their relative costs. The project was broken into four components for the cost estimate: the ion source, accelerator, lithium target system, and conventional facilities. The cost of the accelerator is an important cost driver for the D-Li stripping concept. To fully understand the range of the accelerator cost, multiple alternatives were considered including normal conducting and superconducting linacs and the frequency of the radiofrequency quadrupole. Multiple previous design studies dating from 1989 through 2017 were examined (costs were escalated to 2019 dollars) and compared. After analysis, two options were selected for costing, one superconducting and one room temperature. We found similar project costs for the two accelerator options, on the order of $100M including design and project management but excluding contingency. Including everything except the conventional facilities, the estimate for the neutron source facility is estimated to be $220M without contingency. Additional significant costs for the facility are the conventional costs arising from the need to construct buildings for the accelerator and target facilities, bringing electrical power to the site including a new substation, and removing the heat from the facility using heat exchangers. While ORNL would oversee this work, much of the effort would be executed by contractors. Estimates for this effort was based on similar projects that are currently being executed at ORNL or were executed at ORNL in the recent past. The estimate for conventional facilities for the neutron facility is $173M without contingency, bringing the total project cost to $393M without contingency. With a 50% contingency, the estimated cost is $589M. The estimate range was established using guidance from the Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE). Specifically, guidance from recommended practice 17R-97 provides insight on the expected accuracy range of estimates based on the degree of project definition and the position of the project in the stage-gate process or maturity timeline. An AACE Class 5 type estimate is appropriate for concept screening. The expected accuracy range includes a low end of -50% to -20% and a high end of +30% to +100% around the estimated cost. For the D-Li stripping neutron source, a -20% to +100% cost range was applied for a recommended cost range of $471M to $1,179M. Less emphasis was placed on determining the project schedule due to the fact that the project costs were large and may eliminate this option from consideration. The development of the accelerator facility may require on the order of five years without contingency. A more realistic schedule with contingency may be seven years. However, this estimate should be scrutinized in a preconceptual design activity if a more realistic estimate is needed. Finally, one lesson learned in this process is that the requirements for a near-term, moderate cost facility drives the alternative selection toward existing facilities and infrastructure. The D-Li stripping neutron source option requires a green field site due to the lack of existing buildings and infrastructure that can be reused for this effort. As a result, the conventional facilities costs are a significant fraction of the total facility cost. Other neutron source options where buildings, electrical power, and cooling infrastructure already exist may be able to meet the requirements for a near term, moderate cost facility.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

New Opportunities for Neutrons in Environmental and Biological Sciences

The use of neutron methods in environmental and biological sciences is rapidly emerging and accelerating with the development of new instruments at neutron user facilities. This article, based on a workshop held at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), offers insights into the application of neutron techniques in environmental and biological sciences. Here we highlight recent advances and identify key challenges and potential future research areas. These include soil and rhizosphere processes, root water dynamics, plant-microbe interactions, structure and dynamics of biological systems, applications in synthetic biology and enzyme engineering, next-generation bioproducts, biomaterials and bioenergy, nanoscale structure, and fluid dynamics of porous materials in geochemistry. We provide an outlook on emerging opportunities with an emphasis on new capabilities that will be enabled at the Spallation Neutron Source Second Target Station currently under design at ORNL. The mission of scientific neutron user facilities worldwide is to enable science using state-of-the-art neutron capabilities. We aim to encourage researchers in the environmental and biological research community to explore the unique capability afforded by neutrons at these facilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Large-scale experimental validation of thermochemical water-splitting oxides discovered by defect graph neural networks

Thermochemical water-splitting (TCH) based on 2-step thermal redox cycles in metal oxides is a promising approach to generating H 2 , but state-of-the-art (SOTA) CeO 2 has several practical limitations, which has motivated continued materials discovery efforts in this field. Here, in this study, we improve upon a SOTA defect graph neural network (dGNN) surrogate model's oxygen vacancy predictions and combine them with materials project phase diagrams to down-select and discover structurally diverse, experimentally known metal oxides whose TCH performance was previously unknown. Amongst twelve candidates selected based on our high-throughput screening and down-selection criteria, we achieved ∼80% accuracy in identifying materials with stable redox cycling and hydrogen production in stagnation flow reactor water-splitting experiments. Closer to 100% accuracy can be achieved if higher-accuracy, hybrid DFT-predicted vacancy formation energies were computed and used in lieu of the most uncertain dGNN-based screening predictions, as they correct false positives to true negatives. Notably, two discovered candidates, Sr 3 PrMn 2 O 8 and Ba 2 Fe 2 O 5 , display hydrogen yields greater than CeO 2 under specific redox conditions. In conclusion, these results demonstrate our ability to computationally predict and experimentally validate promising candidate TCH materials that have the potential to compete with CeO 2 .

08 HYDROGEN↗

Distributed memory, GPU accelerated Fock construction for hybrid, Gaussian basis density functional theory

With the growing reliance of modern supercomputers on accelerator-based architecture such a graphics processing units (GPUs), the development and optimization of electronic structure methods to exploit these massively parallel resources has become a recent priority. While significant strides have been made in the development GPU accelerated, distributed memory algorithms for many modern electronic structure methods, the primary focus of GPU development for Gaussian basis atomic orbital methods has been for shared memory systems with only a handful of examples pursing massive parallelism. Here in this work, we present a set of distributed memory algorithms for the evaluation of the Coulomb and exact exchange matrices for hybrid Kohn–Sham DFT with Gaussian basis sets via direct density-fitted (DF-J-Engine) and seminumerical (sn-K) methods, respectively. The absolute performance and strong scalability of the developed methods are demonstrated on systems ranging from a few hundred to over one thousand atoms using up to 128 NVIDIA A100 GPUs on the Perlmutter supercomputer.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Gas diffusion electrodes, reactor designs and key metrics of low-temperature CO 2 electrolysers

We report that CO 2 emissions can be recycled via low-temperature CO 2 electrolysis to generate products such as carbon monoxide, ethanol, ethylene, acetic acid, formic acid and propanol. In recent years, progress has been made towards an industrially relevant performance by leveraging the development of gas diffusion electrodes (GDEs), which enhance the mass transport of reactant gases (for example, CO 2 ) to the active electrocatalyst. Innovations in GDE design have thus set new benchmarks for CO 2 conversion activity. In this Review, we discuss GDE-based CO 2 electrolysers, in terms of reactor designs, GDE composition and failure modes, to identify the key advances and remaining shortfalls of the technology. This is combined with an overview of the partial current densities, efficiencies and stabilities currently achieved and an outlook on how phenomena such as carbonate formation could influence the future direction of the field. Our aim is to capture insights that can accelerate the development of industrially relevant CO 2 electrolysers.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Unit-cell-thick zeolitic imidazolate framework films for membrane application

Zeolitic imidazolate frameworks (ZIFs) are a subset of metal–organic frameworks with more than 200 characterized crystalline and amorphous networks made of divalent transition metal centres (for example, Zn 2+ and Co 2+ ) linked by imidazolate linkers. ZIF thin films have been intensively pursued, motivated by the desire to prepare membranes for selective gas and liquid separations. To achieve membranes with high throughput, as in ångström-scale biological channels with nanometre-scale path lengths, ZIF films with the minimum possible thickness—down to just one unit cell—are highly desired. However, the state-of-the-art methods yield membranes where ZIF films have thickness exceeding 50 nm. Here we report a crystallization method from ultradilute precursor mixtures, which exploits registry with the underlying crystalline substrate, yielding (within minutes) crystalline ZIF films with thickness down to that of a single structural building unit (2 nm). The film crystallized on graphene has a rigid aperture made of a six-membered zinc imidazolate coordination ring, enabling high-permselective H 2 separation performance. The method reported here will probably accelerate the development of two-dimensional metal–organic framework films for efficient membrane separation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Sensor Enabled Coatings for Methane Release Mitigation

Methane as a greenhouse gas is as much as 30 times more efficient than carbon dioxide. Given the increasing reliance on natural gas, methane release mitigation has become an increasingly important issue to address. In this investigation, PPG, RTI, and GTI focused on the exploration of resonant frequency identification (RFID) sensors embedded in natural gas pipeline coatings and their ability to detect coating damage at an early stage. Various coating formulations and their respective physical properties were examined to determine their effect on sensor performance in various accelerated aging environments. Overall, it was found that the RFID sensor responses could not be correlated to the coating properties and formulation variables examined in this investigation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Uncertain quantum computing futures and potential energy and physical resource impacts at scale

Considerable attention has recently focused on the vast energy and water demands of supercomputing, namely large-scale data centers that underpin artificial intelligence (AI), one of the great disruptors of contemporary society. Looking ahead some years from now, quantum computing is poised to disrupt established computing paradigms once again. Scientists and engineers are now working intensely to bring this century-old dream of physicists to fruition. Yet, as quantum computers begin to be integrated with classical supercomputing architectures, the implications for energy and physical resource use also need to be understood, especially how they compare to today’s AI data centers. These impacts have not yet been quantified by the research community – a notable gap in the literature, even if commercial-scale deployment of Quantum-Accelerated Computing Infrastructure (QuACI) is not expected for a few more years. This study is the first to conduct such an assessment. Using publicly available information from academic sources and private industry, we characterize multiple configurations of superconducting qubit-based, fault-tolerant quantum computers (FTQC) that could plausibly be deployed at scale in the 2030s and into the 2040s. By parameterizing these FTQC systems at a process level, we conduct a prospective scenario analysis to quantify their energy and physical resource needs. While these estimates are uncertain, given the current state of quantum technologies and their unknown future trajectories, important insights can already be drawn. One key finding is that while the electricity needs for a fleet of FTQCs are within the bounds of previous modeling studies that have explored high electricity demand futures, the needs for certain physical resources, namely water and helium-3, could pose bottlenecks to QuACI scale-up.

Computing↗