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Quantitative Risk Management - Risk Informed Decision Making on High-Risk Waste Remediation Projects - 19022

For every $1 billion invested in projects, $97 million is wasted due to poor project performance. That means 9.7% of money spent on projects is wasted due to poor risk and uncertainty management. High-risk projects, similar to those in waste remediation, have the most to lose. A solid quantitative risk management program is one of the keys to increasing the likelihood that a project will succeed. A quantitative risk program solves two major problems that challenge the effective management of risk and uncertainty: 1. Risks arise at all levels of an organization; however, not all organizational levels have an effective way to identify and resolve them. This can lead to risks that, even if identified, are not reported. 2. Decision-makers are often forced to operate solely on intuition when implementing mitigation strategies, not fully understanding the effects that certain decisions have on the program's cost and schedule. A quantitative risk program uses a risk register and builds it into the project/program integrated schedule to assess the impact of these risks, typically at the 80% confidence contingency level for specific milestones and/or project completion. Implementing a quantitative risk program drives a forward-thinking, proactive mentality to problem solving into all levels of the organization. A healthy risk program for regular reporting and communication ensures that all members of an organization are thinking about risks and using their communication channels to resolve them. It gives a method of communication and incentive for all levels in the organization and helps to ensure that risks will be reported and resolved. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has developed tools and methods that provide a level of realism for analyzing different scenarios and estimating contingency that does not exist in the standard industry risk tool kit. These tools and methods provide decision-makers with actionable, quantitatively based information to guide their decision making. The first tool is a probabilistic branching risk model for mitigation strategies. Current quantitative risk analysis tools in the industry simulate two cases: fully mitigated and un-mitigated. In the fully mitigated case, the user assumes that every planned mitigation activity is successful. In the un-mitigated case, the user assumes that none are successful. The truth lies between these two extremes. The PNNL team has developed a probabilistic risk model for mitigation scenarios that includes a probability that a mitigation activity will succeed and a probability that a mitigation action will be funded. These probabilities are elicited from subject matter experts and ensure that the contingency calculations at the specified confidence are approaching reality. The second tool developed at PNNL is the Risk Box, which is a tool that integrates with different scenarios in the risk register. For example, say the user is faced with two different and mutually exclusive mitigation actions to reduce a risk. The Risk Box methodology performs the contingency calculations and then displays them on a time-phased graph that shows how each scenario reduces the risk contingency needed on the project/program. This graph then provides quantitative information to show decision-makers which mitigation action provides the greatest reduction (cost and schedule) in risk contingency for the program. Implementing these and other tools within a structured risk program increases the likelihood that a project will come in on schedule and budget, ensures that all personnel are proactively thinking about problems and resolutions, creates communication channels for all members to submit and resolve potential problems, produces a prioritized list of risk rankings to focus leadership on issues that may cause the biggest problems, and implements processes that drive updates to the risk program as the risk profile changes. PNNL has been developing these methods and using them on projects for over 20 years. They have been successfully applied on waste management projects, high-tech research and development projects, and construction projects, and they continue to be used on a number of U.S. Department of Energy projects today. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Visualization of Multi-Dimensional Imaging Data for the DIII-D National Fusion Facility

With funding provided from the Office of Fusion Energy Science’s program on Diagnostic Systems for Magnetic Fusion Energy Sciences, the PI and his team have pioneered the development of microwave imaging systems for magnetic fusion plasma diagnostics. Specifically, electron cyclotron emission (ECE) imaging [1], a passive radiometric technique, measures electron temperature fluctuations; and microwave imaging reflectometry (MIR) [2], an active radar imaging technique, measures electron density fluctuations. These microwave imaging diagnostic instruments developed by UC Davis have made important contributions to fusion science in a relatively short period of time from their original installation on DIII-D. The microwave imaging diagnostic technique has matured considerably since the beginning of a fruitful collaboration with DIII-D and PPPL, and has also been adopted at preeminent tokamak facilities worldwide. As discussed in detail in the following, this has continued with the development of revolutionary microwave diagnostic instruments employing monolithic millimeter wave integrated circuit (MMIC) system-on-chip (SoC) technology. Specifically, “chip” receivers mounted in liquid crystal polymer (LCP) modules have been demonstrated to dramatically improve the performance of the electron cyclotron emission imaging (ECEI) system including: 30x improvement in noise temperature thereby permitting absolute 2-D electron temperature images, outstanding shielding against out-of-band interference including microwave bursting which had plagued previous ELM studies using the old quasi-optical mini-lens ECEI system, and independent modules facilitating flexible repair and replacement. Under the “Visualization of multi-dimensional imaging data for the DIII-D National Fusion Facility” program, funding was provided for a research scientist postdoc and a Ph.D. student to support physics studies at DIII-D employing these instruments. This endeavor is synergistic with our current grant under the DOE Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) program on Diagnostic Systems for Magnetic Fusion Energy Sciences. This support considerably increased the scientific output of the diagnostics. The activities were strongly focused in the areas of pedestal and ELM stability, energetic particle confinement, and the early detection and avoidance of tokamak disruptions employing the microwave imaging diagnostic instruments developed under the advanced diagnostics program where imaging of the ELM crash was made possible by the elimination of the interference from the associated microwave “bursts”

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Macrophysical properties of continental cumulus clouds from active and passive remote sensing

Cloud amount is an essential and extensively used macrophysical parameter of cumulus clouds. It is commonly defined as a cloud fraction (CF) from zenith-pointing ground-based active and passive remote sensing. However, conventional retrievals of CF from the remote sensing data with very narrow field-of-view (FOV) may not be representative of the surrounding area. Here we assess its representativeness using an integrated dataset collected at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program's Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma, USA. For our assessment with focus on selected days with single-layer cumulus clouds (2005-2016), we include the narrow-FOV ARM Active Remotely Sensed Clouds Locations (ARSCL) and large-FOV Total Sky Imager (TSI) cloud products, the 915-MHz Radar Wind Profiler (RWP) measurements of wind speed and direction, and also high-resolution satellite images from Landsat and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We demonstrate that a root-mean-square difference (RMSD) between the 15-min averaged ARSCL cloud fraction (CF) and the 15-min averaged TSI fractional sky cover (FSC) is large (up to 0.3). We also discuss how the horizontal distribution of clouds can modify the obtained large RMSD using a new uniformity metric. The latter utilizes the spatial distribution of the FSC over the 100° FOV TSI images obtained with high temporal resolution (30 sec sampling). We demonstrate that cases with more uniform spatial distribution of FSC show better agreement between the narrow-FOV CF and large-FOV FSC, reducing the RMSD by up to a factor of 2.

ARM Active Remotely Sensed Cloud Locations (ARSCL)↗

Modernization of Technical Requirements for Licensing of Advanced Non-Light Water Reactors: Risk-Informed and Performance-Based Evaluation of Defense-in-Depth Adequacy

This document supports the work contained in Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) 18-04 “Risk-Informed Performance-Based Technology Inclusive Guidance for Advanced Reactor Licensing Basis Development” Revision 0. NEI 18-04 presents a modern, technology-inclusive, risk-informed, and performance-based (TI-RIPB) process for selection of Licensing Basis Events (LBEs); safety classification of structures, systems, and components (SSCs) and associated risk-informed special treatments; and determination of defense-in-depth (DID) adequacy for non-LWRs. The NEI guidance document provides one acceptable means for addressing the aforementioned topics as part of demonstrating a specific design provides reasonable assurance of adequate radiological protection. This report provides the framework and associated methodology guidelines and discussion for establishing, then evaluating, confirming, and documenting the adequacy of defense-in-depth (DID) for advanced non-light-water reactor technologies. It was developed as part of the Licensing Modernization Project led by Southern Company and cost-shared by the United States Department of Energy and has benefited from considerable NRC formal reviews and public workshops. The methodology converts the DID philosophy into a structured process that is implementable, embraces existing United States and international definitions and philosophies of DID that set the foundation for the process. It builds on the DID framework developed in the Department of Energy Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project and earlier works on this subject. The approach to establishing DID adequacy involves the incorporation of DID attributes into the plant capabilities and programmatic elements of DID. The integrated evaluation of DID adequacy includes both quantitative elements to incorporate risk-informed and performance-based (RIPB) considerations and qualitative elements that address uncertainties and limitations in the quantitative models and supporting data. Demonstration of DID adequacy ensures that there are multiple layers of defense for risk-significant challenges to the design and that the plant capabilities and programs that support each layer are provided in a manner that minimizes dependencies among these layers. The focus of this report is assurance of DID adequacy with respect to protection of the public from radiological exposures resulting from accidental releases of radioactive material. While other hazards are not specifically addressed, this methodology is expected to be beneficial for determining DID adequacy for them as well. Risk-informed evaluation of DID considers the integrated performance of all plant SSCs and associated programs to manage daily operational activities, transients, and accidents, including the evaluation of strategies for accident prevention and mitigation. The RIPB LBE scenario methodology used in this evaluation defines the challenges to the plant safety features included in the plant design basis and beyond, and the scope of all deterministic and probabilistic safety evaluations. By examining event sequences across the whole spectrum of LBEs, a systematic assessment of DID can be accomplished.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Performance of a Natural Gas Solid Oxide Fuel Cell System With and Without Carbon Capture

The fuel cell program at the United States Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) is focused on the development of low-cost, highly efficient, and reliable fossil-fuel-based solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) power systems that can generate environmentally-friendly electric power with at least 90 percent carbon capture. NETL’s SOFC technology development roadmap is aligned with near-term market opportunities in the distributed generation sector to validate and advance the technology while paving the way for utility-scale natural gas (NG)- and coal-derived synthesis gas-fueled applications via progressively larger system demonstrations. The present study represents a part of a series of system evaluations being carried out at NETL to aid in prioritizing technological advances along research pathways to the realization of utility-scale SOFC systems, a transformational goal of the fuel cell program. In particular, the system performance of utility-scale NG fuel cell (NGFC) systems with and without carbon dioxide (CO2) capture is presented. The NGFC system analyzed features an external auto-thermal reformer (ATR) feeding the fuel to the SOFC system consisting of planar anode-supported SOFC with separated anode and cathode off-gas streams. In systems with CO2 capture, an air separation unit (ASU) is used to provide the oxygen for the ATR and for the combustion of unutilized fuel in the SOFC anode exhaust along with a CO2 purification unit to provide a nearly pure CO2 stream suitable for transport for usage in enhanced oil recovery operations or for storage in underground saline formations. Remaining thermal energy in the exhaust gases is recovered in a bottoming steam Rankine cycle while supplying any process heat requirements. A reduced order model (ROM) developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is used to predict the SOFC performance. The ROM, while being computationally effective for system studies, provides other detailed information about the state of the stack, such as the internal temperature gradient, generally not available from simple performance models often used to represent the SOFC. Such additional information can be important in system optimization studies to preclude operation under off-design conditions that can adversely impact overall system reliability. The NGFC system performance was analyzed by varying salient system parameters, including the percent of internal (to the SOFC module) NG reformation—ranging from 0 to 100 percent—fuel utilization, and current density. The impact of advances in underlying SOFC technology on electrical performance was also explored.

solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC), natural gas fuel cel↗

Progress for the Industry Application External Hazard Analyses Early Demonstration

This report describes the current progress and status related to the Industry Application #2 focusing on External Hazards. For this industry application within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) R&D Pathway, we will create the Risk-Informed Margin Management (RIMM) approach to represent meaningful (i.e., realistic facility representation) event scenarios and consequences by using an advanced 3D facility representation that will evaluate external hazards such as flooding and earthquakes in order to identify, model and analyze the appropriate physics that needs to be included to determine plant vulnerabilities related to external events; manage the communication and interactions between different physics modeling and analysis technologies; and develop the computational infrastructure through tools related to plant representation, scenario depiction, and physics prediction. One of the unique aspects of the RISMC approach is how it couples probabilistic approaches (the scenario) with mechanistic phenomena representation (the physics) through simulation. This simulation-based modeling allows decision makers to focus on a variety of safety, performance, or economic metrics. In this report, we describe the evaluation of various physics toolkits related to flooding representation. Ultimately, we will be coupling the flooding representation with other events such as earthquakes in order to provide coupled physics analysis for scenarios where interactions exist.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Tagging efficiency study of incoherent diffractive vector meson production at the second interaction region at the Electron-Ion Collider

The Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) is an upcoming accelerator facility aimed at exploring the properties of quarks and gluons in nucleons and nuclei, shedding light on their structure and dynamics. The inaugural experimental apparatus, ePIC (electron-Proton and Ion Collider), is designed as a general-purpose detector to address the National Academy of Sciences and the Nuclear Science Advisory Committee physics program at the EIC. The wider EIC community is strongly supporting a second interaction region and an associated second detector to enhance the full science program. In this study, we evaluate how this second interaction region and detector can be complementary to ePIC. The layout of an interaction region for the second detector offers a secondary focus that provides better forward detector acceptance at scattering angles near θ ~ 0 mrad, which can specifically enhance the exclusive, tagging, and diffractive physics program. Here, this article presents an analysis of a tagging program using the second interaction region layout with incoherent diffractive vector meson production. The current design of the second EIC interaction region is evaluated for its vetoing capabilities of incoherent events required for the study of coherent diffractive measurements. We find an increased vetoing performance compared to the ePIC interaction region, thus improving measurements which are important for the spatial imaging of nucleons and nuclei.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Mentorship Programs in Radiation Oncology Residency Training Programs: A Critical Unmet Need

Purpose: To conduct a nationwide survey to evaluate the current status of resident mentorship in radiation oncology. Methods and Materials: An anonymous electronic questionnaire was sent to all residents and recent graduates at US Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education–accredited radiation oncology residency programs, identified in the member directory of the Association of Residents in Radiation Oncology. Factors predictive of having a mentor and satisfaction with the mentorship experience were identified using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: The survey response rate was 25%, with 85% of respondents reporting that mentorship plays a critical role in residency training, whereas only 53% had a current mentor. Larger programs (≥10 faculty, P=.004; and ≥10 residents, P<.001) were more likely to offer a formal mentorship program, which makes it more likely for residents to have an active mentor (88% vs 44%). Residents in a formal mentoring program reported being more satisfied with the overall mentorship experience (univariate odds ratio 8.77, P<.001; multivariate odds ratio 5, P<.001). On multivariate analysis, women were less likely to be satisfied with the mentorship experience. Conclusions: This is the first survey focusing on the status of residency mentorship in radiation oncology. Our survey highlights the unmet need for mentorship in residency programs.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Innovative Approach to SCC Inspection and Evaluation of Canister in Dry Storage

This final report is summarized four years of work of awarded project number DE-NE0008442\IRP-15-9318, title as: “Innovative Approach to SCC Inspection and Evaluation of Canister in Dry” supported by Nuclear Energy University Program\Integrated Research Program, NEUP\IRP, where last year is an extension of no cost project. This research work is focused on the possible degradation of dry storage canister holding used nuclear fuel (UNF), due to exposure of marine atmospheric environment. The canister usually designed from a welded austenitic stainless-steel of types 304 or 316, encased in a concrete shell known as an overpack. This canister designed and licensed for 20 years with an extension period need to be determined, in addition 20 years or more. These casks are located throughout the country in Independent Spent Fuel Storage Installations (IFSFIs) often on the site close to nuclear power plants, that are often located in coastal or lake-side regions where a marine atmospheric salt air environment exist. As a result of several recent decisions, such as not pursuing Yucca Mountain as a long-term geologic repository storage facility for UNF and the cancellation of the construction of a reprocessing facility in the 1980s due to proliferation risks, interim dry storage facilities for long-term storage are vital option for the immediate future of nuclear energy technology. One of the primary concerns with respect to the long-term performance of the storage casks is the potential for corrosion initiation due to deliquescence of salts deposited on the canister surface as aerosols; in regions of high residual weld stresses, this may lead to localized stress corrosion cracking (SCC). Dust and aerosols in the air being drawn though ventilation openings in the overpacks of passively ventilated dry canister storage systems may be deposited on the stainless-steel canister outer surfaces. Under these conditions, localized corrosion attack can occur. Chlorides ions deliquescence on the canister surface, a process by which the salts essentially pull moisture out of the air, creating a concentrated salt brine on the canister surface. Chloride-induced stress corrosion cracking (CISCC) of welded zones is of special concern, as it a well-documented mode of attack for austenitic stainless steels marine environments, and many independent spent fuel storage installations (ISFSIs) are located in coastal areas. Recent canister inspections have shown that chloride salts are present on the surface of in-service canisters at near-marine settings. However, canister surface inspections of satisfactory resolution to detect SCC have never been carried out in details, because access to the canister surfaces through vents in the overpacks is extremely limited, and high radiation fields make removal of the canisters from the overpacks undesirable. Although no significant corrosion damage has not been detected up to date, there is concern that this may lead to pitting corrosion, which could in turn develop into stress corrosion cracking, causing canister structural failure. The initiation and propagation of pitting corrosion has been widely studied in full immersion conditions, but limited studies have been done on marine atmospheric conditions, which is a focus of this work, these includes laboratory and field experimentally and propagation rate modeling of pitting and transition to crack, and crack propagation rate. It is known, however, that the rate of atmospheric corrosion can be affected by variations in relative humidity (RH), salt density, salt type, droplet area, temperature and stainless-steel microstructure and residual stress particularly in welded zones of canisters. The integrated research program has identified potential deterioration mechanisms for the stainless-steel canisters containing the UNF in dry storage that require detailed research and investigation and will have an impact on the performance of long-term interim storage under the normal and extreme environmental conditions experienced during the duration of this storage. The prediction and monitoring of canister corrosion processes while in storage can provide important data for the assessment of interim storage performance and the safety to the public. This report comprises of mainly the published results in different journals and covering a wide range spectrum from susceptible stainless-steel types 304\316 microstructural analysis through the implant test at atmospheric environment, residual stress analysis of mockup canister and simulation, inspection methodology includes nonlinear ultrasound and vibro-thermography and stochastic modeling and simulation of pits propagation rates and transition to cracks. Description of field specimens installed at ISFSI of Main Yankee is given in the following chapters and will be analyzed in the coming future and serves as an important data for a stochastic analysis as it was drawn from the publications and reports described in this report. The purpose of this report is to bring together the project efforts that includes improving in our understanding of structural aging performance at current dry storage casks fleet at ISFSIs in the context of remedial maintenance and inspection applications technologies.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

On-Going International Research Program on Irradiated Concrete Conducted by DOE, EPRI and Japan Research Institutions. Roadmap, Achievements and Path Forward

The Joint Department of Energy (DOE)-Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) Program (Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program–Material Pathway–Concrete and Long-Term Operation (LTO) Program) and US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) research studies aim at understanding the most prominent degradation modes and their effects on the long-term operation of concrete structures to nuclear power generation. Based on the results of the Expanded Materials Degradation Analysis (EMDA), (NUREG/CR-7153, ORNL/TM-2011/545), irradiated concrete and alkali-silica reaction (ASR)-affected concrete structures are the two prioritized topics of on-going research. This report focuses specifically on the topic of irradiated concrete and summarizes the main accomplishments obtained by this joint program, but also provides an overview of current relevant activities domestically and internationally. Possible paths forward are also suggested to help near-future orientation of this program.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Development of Accident Tolerant Fuel Options For Near Term Applications

In this section, the basis for the proposal followed by description of the work scope and methodologies are discussed. Following the Fukushima disaster in 2011, US congress mandated the department of energy to start a R&D program on accident tolerant fuel (ATF) concepts for the existing light water reactor fleet. By 2015, the start date of this IRP, several ATF concepts were being pursued by various entities. In general, the ATF concepts were divided into two categories: near term and long term. The near term concepts included: Coated Zircaloy clad, fuels with additives and dopants and FeCrAl/steel based claddings. The long term concepts included: SiC composite cladding, high density fuels (U 3 Si 2 , UN) and TRISO type fuel forms (e.g. FCM). It is of particular importance for any DOE funded effort to give background information and original Funding Opportunity Announcement (FOA) goals in its final report to evaluate whether the FOA goals and the proposed work were actually addressed. The FOA for this IRP sought for modeling and simulation capability to predict various ATF performances during normal operation, design basis accident and severe accident conditions. Particularly, the FOA was concern with the state of the core performance during a severe accident. It was postulated that if an ATF retains its structural integrity, the performance of non-fuel structures in the core needs to be addressed. The IRP team focused the proposal on Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) performance for near term ATF concepts: Coated cladding, Fuel with additives and dopants to accelerate adoption of such concepts and address the unanswered questions regarding their performance. The project also gave limited focus on another near term concept, FeCrAl cladding, by restricting its scope to time-to-failure prediction since substantial effort supported by other programs including ORNL ATF program, GEH ATF program and NEAMS High Impact Problem were already made or underway during the IRP tenure. Despite two previous IRPs funded in 2012 with focus on experimental study of metallic and ceramic Zircaloy coated claddings, this IRP still included a coating program. This was a testament to the project leadership’s belief that the coated clad concept will be the primarily initial pathway for near term industrialization of ATF technology due to presence of enrichment penalty and licensing hurdles of the alternative clad concepts. In doing so, the IRP was positioned to provide key findings on coated Zircaloy as a uniquely funded external program to DOE’s industrial ATF campaign. Currently, in 2019, the coated clad concept is being pursued by all three vendors for licensed application and Lead Test Rods and Lead Test Assemblies (LTRs/LTAs) have already been inserted or planned to be inserted in the existing fleet. At the start of the IRP project, based on the meeting with the projects technical and federal point of contacts, it was also agreed upon if the contractual obligations are met, then the scope of the simulation work will be extended to Boiling Water Reactors as included in Section 2.10.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Summer Proceedings 2018: The Center for Computing Research at Sandia National Laboratories

The Center for Computing Research (CCR) at Sandia National Laboratories organizes an active and productive summer program each year, in coordination with the Computer Science Research Institute (CSRI) and Cyber Engineering Research Institute (CERI). CERI focuses on open, exploratory research in cyber security in partnership with academia, industry, and government, and provides collaborators an accessible portal to Sandia's cybersecurity experts and facilities. Moreover, CERI provides an environment for visionary, threat-informed research on national cyber challenges. CSRI brings university faculty and students to Sandia National Laboratories for focused collaborative research on DOE computer and computational science problems. CSRI provides a mechanism by which university researchers learn about problems in computer and computational science at DOE Laboratories. Participants conduct leading - edge research, interact with scientists and engineers at the laboratories, and help transfer the results of their research to programs at the labs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Overcoming Barriers in Plant Transformation: A Focus on Bioenergy Crops

Although 2023 marked the 40th anniversary of the first transgenic plant, routine transformation of most plant genotypes remains elusive. Rapid systems to overexpress, interfere, or knock out genes— collectively defined in this report as “transformation and editing technologies”—are needed to understand plant gene function. This understanding in turn is crucial for efficiently developing new, sustainable, high-yielding, and climate-resilient crops to meet the growing demand for food, feed, fiber, and fuel. In particular, the ability to apply transformation and editing technologies to bioenergy crops has remained largely unrealized. To address this opportunity, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Biological and Environmental Research Program convened a workshop on September 18–20, 2023, to define transformation and editing needs and barriers focused on bioenergy crops. The main conclusions are summarized below.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Variability of Eastern North Atlantic Summertime Marine Boundary Layer Clouds and Aerosols Across Different Synoptic Regimes Identified With Multiple Conditions

Abstract This study estimates the meteorological covariations of aerosol and marine boundary layer (MBL) cloud properties in the eastern North Atlantic (ENA) region, characterized by diverse synoptic conditions. Using a deep‐learning‐based clustering model with mid‐level and surface daily meteorological data, we identify seven distinct synoptic regimes during the summer from 2016 to 2021. Our analysis, incorporating reanalysis data and satellite retrievals, shows that surface aerosols and MBL clouds exhibit clear regime‐dependent characteristics, whereas lower tropospheric aerosols do not. This discrepancy likely arises from synoptic regimes determined by daily large‐scale conditions, which may overlook air mass histories that predominantly dictate lower tropospheric aerosol conditions. Focusing on three regimes dominated by northerly winds, we analyze the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) ENA observations on Graciosa Island in the Azores. In the subtropical anticyclone regime, fewer cumulus clouds and more single‐layer stratocumulus clouds with light drizzle are observed, along with the highest cloud droplet number concentration (Nd), surface cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and surface aerosol levels. The post‐trough regime features more broken or multi‐layer stratocumulus clouds with slightly higher surface rain rate, and lower Nd and surface CCN levels. The weak trough regime is characterized by the deepest MBL clouds, primarily cumulus and broken stratocumulus clouds, with the strongest surface rain rate and the lowest Nd, surface CCN and surface aerosol levels, indicating strong wet scavenging. These findings highlight the importance of considering the covariation of cloud and aerosol properties driven by large‐scale regimes when assessing aerosol indirect effects using observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NCRP Program Area Committee 5: Environmental Radiation and Radioactive Waste Issues

Program Area Committee 5 of the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) focuses its activities on environmental radiation and radioactive waste issues. Historically this Committee addressed emerging issues of the nation pertaining to radioactivity or radiation in the environment or radioactive waste issues due either to natural origins or to manmade activities. The Committee continues to identify such issues in the future.

environmental impact↗

Smart Grid and Smart Cities

We hope the proceedings will offer the readers a good opportunity to explore the state-of-the art developments and future directions of researches on smart grid and smart cities. These conferences covered the recent trends and progresses made in the field of smart grid and smart cities. For the past few years, smart grids have been one of the main topics in research and development at academic, industry, business and government level. The smart grid is envisaged to be the next generation electric grid for Smart Cities. It enables the smart integration of conventional power generation, renewable generation, distributed generation, energy storage, transmission, distribution and demand management. The benefits of smart grid include the enhanced reliability and resilience, higher intelligence and optimized control, decentralized operation, higher operational efficiency, more efficient demand management, and better power quality. However, all these prospected transformations also bring with them numerous challenges and opportunities. The conference program covers keynotes, invited, oral and poster presentations. The keynotes and invited talks are focused on the potential application of smart grid and smart cities in various fields of application. Among 105 full length articles submitted to the conference, 59 manuscripts were accepted after a thorough peer reviews and were recommended for presentations and publication in this proceedings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Nuclear Forensic Science: Analysis of Nuclear Material Out of Regulatory Control

Nuclear forensic science seeks to identify the origin of nuclear materials found outside regulatory control. It is increasingly recognized as an integral part of a robust nuclear security program. Our review highlights areas of active, evolving research in nuclear forensics, with a focus on analytical techniques commonly employed in Earth and planetary sciences. Applications of nuclear forensics to uranium ore concentrates (UOCs) are discussed first. UOCs have become an attractive target for nuclear forensic researchers because of the richness in impurities compared to materials produced later in the fuel cycle. Furthermore, the development of chronometric methods for age dating nuclear materials is then discussed, with an emphasis on improvements in accuracy that have been gained from measurements of multiple radioisotopic systems. Finally, papers that report on casework are reviewed, to provide a window into current scientific practice.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

CHMMPP: A c++ library for constrained Hidden Markov Models

SAND2024-13027O The CHMMPP: A c++ Library for Constrained Hidden Markov Models (HMM) software supports the analysis of multivariate time series data to detect patterns using HMM. Many applications involve the detection and characterization of hidden or latent states in a complex system using observable states and variables. This software supports inference of latent states integrating both an HMM and application-specific constraints that reflect known relationships in hidden states. The CHMMPP software supports application-specific and generic methods for constrained inference. This includes a framework for customized Viterbi methods, constrained inference of hidden states with A* and integer programming methods, and various constraint-informed methods for learning HMM model parameters. CHMMPP focuses on supporting generic methods that enable the agile expression of complex sets of constraints that naturally arise in many real-world applications.

Hart, William↗