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Automated Classification and Analysis of Non-metallic Inclusion Data Sets

The aim of this study is to utilize principal component analysis (PCA), clustering methods, and correlation analysis to condense and examine large, multivariate data sets produced from automated analysis of non-metallic inclusions. Non-metallic inclusions play a major role in defining the properties of steel and their examination has been greatly aided by automated analysis in scanning electron microscopes equipped with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. The methods were applied to analyze inclusions on two sets of samples: two laboratory-scale samples and four industrial samples from a near-finished 4140 alloy steel components with varying machinability. The laboratory samples had well-defined inclusions chemistries, composed of MgO-Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}-CaO, spinel (MgO-Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}), and calcium aluminate inclusions. The industrial samples contained MnS inclusions as well as (Ca,Mn)S + calcium aluminate oxide inclusions. PCA could be used to reduce inclusion chemistry variables to a 2D plot, which revealed inclusion chemistry groupings in the samples. Clustering methods were used to automatically classify inclusion chemistry measurements into groups, i.e., no user-defined rules were required.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2021

Underlying each of the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample in order to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level financial data (Fujita, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include: Discount rate estimation methods and rationale; -Data sources used and data limitations; -Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis; -Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis. Going forward, this report will be updated as data allow and analyses necessitate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An Integrated Analysis-Test Approach

This viewgraph presentation provides an overview of a project to develop a computer program which integrates data analysis and test procedures. The software application aims to propose a new perspective to traditional mechanical analysis and test procedures and to integrate pre-test and test analysis calculation methods. The program also should also be able to be used in portable devices and allows for the 'quasi-real time' analysis of data sent by electronic means. Test methods reviewed during this presentation include: shaker swept sine and random tests, shaker shock mode tests, shaker base driven model survey tests and acoustic tests.

Kaufman, Daniel↗

Absence of diurnal variation of C-reactive protein concentrations in healthy human subjects

BACKGROUND: The concentration of C-reactive protein (CRP) in otherwise healthy subjects has been shown to predict future risk of myocardial infarction and stroke. CRP is synthesized by the liver in response to interleukin-6, the serum concentration of which is subject to diurnal variation. METHODS: To examine the existence of a time-of-day effect for baseline CRP values, we determined CRP concentrations in hourly blood samples drawn from healthy subjects (10 males, 3 females; age range, 21-35 years) during a baseline day in a controlled environment (8 h of nighttime sleep). RESULTS: Overall CRP concentrations were low, with only three subjects having CRP concentrations >2 mg/L. Comparison of raw data showed stability of CRP concentrations throughout the 24 h studied. When compared with cutoff values of CRP quintile derived from population-based studies, misclassification of greater than one quintile did not occur as a result of diurnal variation in any of the subjects studied. Nonparametric ANOVA comparing different time points showed no significant differences for both raw and z-transformed data. Analysis for rhythmic diurnal variation using a method fitting a cosine curve to the group data was negative. CONCLUSIONS: Our data show that baseline CRP concentrations are not subject to time-of-day variation and thus help to explain why CRP concentrations are a better predictor of vascular risk than interleukin-6. Determination of CRP for cardiovascular risk prediction may be performed without concern for diurnal variation.

Non-NASA Center↗

Wind Plant Performance Prediction (WP3) Project

The methods for analysis of operational wind plant data are highly variable across the wind industry, leading to high uncertainties in the validation and bias-correction of preconstruction energy estimation methods. Lack of credibility in the preconstruction energy estimates leads to significant impacts on project financing and therefore the final levelized cost of energy for the plant. In this work, the variation in the evaluation of a wind plant's operational energy production as a result of variations in the processing methods applied to the operational data is examined. Preliminary results indicate that selection of the filters applied to the data and the filter parameters can have significant impacts in the final computed assessment metrics.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Utilization of an Advanced Sensor network to determine fuel heating value and Real-Time net unit heat rate during transient operation

Coal-fired utility boilers are being increasingly used as variable electricity generation to resolve the imbalance in the energy market from the expansion of intermittent renewable energy. The frequent transient operation required to meet residual energy demand has created a challenge for coal-fired units to operate efficiently. This work utilizes an advanced sensor network (ASN) to calculate net unit heat rate (NUHR) of a coal-fired boiler in real time through combustion calculations and statistical correlations to provide the tools for optimizing dynamic operation. Real-time heating values that were necessary to determine fuel input energy to calculate accurate NUHR were found using both fundamental and data-driven methods. Real-time NUHR shows distinct shifts that reflect changes in process conditions that will improve the ability to optimize transient operation. Data-driven heating value correlations had 24% lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the fundamental combustion calculation approach when compared to daily retrospective proximate analysis. Furthermore, the data-driven method RMSE improved by 7% with the inclusion of ASN data. Future work is to validate by comparing unit performance with and without the inclusion of NUHR as a control parameter for the dynamic neural network.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Analysis tools for MesonEx at CLAS12

The JLAB upgrade will soon be completed and the new CLAS12 detector system will collect large volumes of data allowing detailed investigations of many aspects of hadron physics. The focus of the MesonEx experiment is on the production of mesonic states by low Q2 virtual photons, or quasi-real photons. Studying such mesonic states is a particularly challenging data analysis problem, requiring well understood detector systems, clean signal and background separation, handling of large volumes of data and crucially a close collaboration between experimentalists and theorists to ensure the most sophisticated theoretical methods are used to interrogate the data. Here we briefly outline some of the analysis and methods that are being used to prepare for the MesonEx experiment.

Glazier, Derek↗

Optimizing galaxy samples for clustering measurements in photometric surveys

When analysing galaxy clustering in multiband imaging surveys, there is a trade-off between selecting the largest galaxy samples (to minimize the shot noise) and selecting samples with the best photometric redshift (photo-$z$) precision, which generally includes only a small subset of galaxies. In this paper, we systematically explore this trade-off. Our analysis is targeted towards the third-year data of the Dark Energy Survey (DES), but our methods hold generally for other data sets. Using a simple Gaussian model for the redshift uncertainties, we carry out a Fisher matrix forecast for cosmological constraints from angular clustering in the redshift range $z$ = 0.2–0.95. We quantify the cosmological constraints using a figure of merit (FoM) that measures the combined constraints on $Ωm$ and $σ_8$ in the context of Λ cold dark matter ($Λ$CDM) cosmology. We find that the trade-off between sample size and photo-z precision is sensitive to (1) whether cross-correlations between redshift bins are included or not, and (2) the ratio of the redshift bin width $δz$ to the photo-$z$ precision $σ_z$. When cross-correlations are included and the redshift bin width is allowed to vary, the highest FoM is achieved when $δz$ ~ $σ_z$. We find that for the typical case of 5-10 redshift bins, optimal results are reached when we use larger, less precise photo-z samples, provided that we include cross-correlations. For samples with higher $σ_z$, the overlap between redshift bins is larger, leading to higher cross-correlation amplitudes. This leads to the self-calibration of the photo-z parameters and therefore tighter cosmological constraints. These results can be used to help guide galaxy sample selection for clustering analysis in ongoing and future photometric surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Comparison of Electrical Output Format Options for the Analysis of Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Data

Fundamental characteristics of three gage output formats are discussed that may be used to both interpret and analyze wind tunnel strain-gage balance data. The first output format uses raw outputs, i.e., absolute voltage measurements, for the analysis. This choice requires an intercept term in the regression model of the outputs if the Iterative Method is chosen for the load prediction. Raw outputs can be used for the analysis of all known output characteristics as long as the Iterative Method is applied. However, raw outputs cannot be used to analyze data of a balance with bi-directional outputs if the Non-Iterative Method is chosen for the analysis. The second output format, i.e., difference type 1, uses the difference between raw outputs and the natural zeros of the balance gages for the analysis. In this case, the use of the intercept term becomes optional. Analysis results for difference type 1 will exactly match analysis results obtained by using raw outputs as long as identical math models are used for the regression analysis. In addition, difference type 1 may be used to analyze data of a balance with bi directional outputs if an analyst prefers to process data using the Non-Iterative Method. The third output format, i.e., difference type 2, uses the difference between raw outputs and the outputs of the zero load point of a load series for the data analysis. The application of this format is only recommended if the maximum magnitude of all tare loads of a given balance calibration data set is less than two percent of capacity. Data from the calibration of a force balance is used to illustrate the application of the three gage output formats.

Wind Tunnel Strain-Gage Balance↗

Planetary geosciences, 1989-1990

NASA's Planetary Geosciences Programs (the Planetary Geology and Geophysics and the Planetary Material and Geochemistry Programs) provide support and an organizational framework for scientific research on solid bodies of the solar system. These research and analysis programs support scientific research aimed at increasing our understanding of the physical, chemical, and dynamic nature of the solid bodies of the solar system: the Moon, the terrestrial planets, the satellites of the outer planets, the rings, the asteroids, and the comets. This research is conducted using a variety of methods: laboratory experiments, theoretical approaches, data analysis, and Earth analog techniques. Through research supported by these programs, we are expanding our understanding of the origin and evolution of the solar system. This document is intended to provide an overview of the more significant scientific findings and discoveries made this year by scientists supported by the Planetary Geosciences Program. To a large degree, these results and discoveries are the measure of success of the programs.

Zuber, Maria T.↗

The CosmoVerse White Paper: Addressing observational tensions in cosmology with systematics and fundamental physics.

The standard model of cosmology has provided a good phenomenological description of a wide range of observations both at astrophysical and cosmological scales for several decades. This concordance model is constructed by a universal cosmological constant and supported by a matter sector described by the standard model of particle physics and a cold dark matter contribution, as well as very early-time inflationary physics, and underpinned by gravitation through general relativity. There have always been open questions about the soundness of the foundations of the standard model. However, recent years have shown that there may also be questions from the observational sector with the emergence of differences between certain cosmological probes. In this White Paper, we identify the key objectives that need to be addressed over the coming decade together with the core science projects that aim to meet these challenges. These discordances primarily rest on the divergence in the measurement of core cosmological parameters with varying levels of statistical confidence. These possible statistical tensions may be partially accounted for by systematics in various measurements or cosmological probes but there is also a growing indication of potential new physics beyond the standard model. After reviewing the principal probes used in the measurement of cosmological parameters, as well as potential systematics, we discuss the most promising array of potential new physics that may be observable in upcoming surveys. We also discuss the growing set of novel data analysis approaches that go beyond traditional methods to test physical models. These new methods will become increasingly important in the coming years as the volume of survey data continues to increase, and as the degeneracy between predictions of different physical models grows. There are several perspectives on the divergences between the values of cosmological parameters, such as the model-independent probes in the late Universe and model-dependent measurements in the early Universe, which we cover at length. The White Paper closes with a number of recommendations for the community to focus on for the upcoming decade of observational cosmology, statistical data analysis, and fundamental physics developments.

Dienes, Keith [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (Unite↗

An introduction to wavelet analysis in oceanography and meteorology - With application to the dispersion of Yanai waves

Wavelet analysis is a relatively new technique that is an important addition to standard signal analysis methods. Unlike Fourier analysis that yields an average amplitude and phase for each harmonic in a dataset, the wavelet transform produces an instantaneous estimate or local value for the amplitude and phase of each harmonic. This allows detailed study of nonstationary spatial or time-dependent signal characteristics. The wavelet transform is discussed, examples are given, and some methods for preprocessing data for wavelet analysis are compared. By studying the dispersion of Yanai waves in a reduced gravity equatorial model, the usefulness of the transform is demonstrated. The group velocity is measured directly over a finite range of wavenumbers by examining the time evolution of the transform. The results agree well with linear theory at higher wavenumber but the measured group velocity is reduced at lower wavenumbers, possibly due to interaction with the basin boundaries.

Meyers, Steven D.↗

Quantifying Transient Uncertainty in the BEAVRS Benchmark Using Time Series Analysis Methods

Advances in computation have brought about significant improvements in creating fast-running high-fidelity simulations of nuclear cores. The BEAVRS benchmark is a highly-detailed PWR specification with two cycles of measured operational data used to validate high-fidelity core analysis methods. This PWR depletion benchmark captures the fine details of the LWR fuel assemblies, burnable absorbers, in-core fission detectors, core loading and shuffling patterns. Specifically, 58 of the 193 assemblies contain in-core detectors with measurements taken over 61 axial positions every month. These detectors are U-235 fission chambers with slightly varying mass of U-235. The collected signals are normalized on a given assembly permitting full core comparisons. The fuel layout for cycle 1 and instrument tube locations for the reactor are given in figures 1 and 2 respectively. Through a series of data processing and comparisons, it was shown that axially integrated radial maps of reaction rates were in close agreement between provided detector data and calculated data. More recently, the focus of the BEAVRS project has been on quantifying uncertainty to further assess the validity of aforementioned results. A close investigation of sources of error shows that uncertainties from operational nuclear data arise primarily from data measurements and processing. While the errors in axial realignment and interpolation seem significant, these sources affect only a small subset of data points near grid spacers and do not persist throughout the entire core. Instead, measurement uncertainty from detector count rates and radial integration dominate the uncertainty in measured data are determined as the most significant sources of error. This uncertainty analysis treated each given burnup step as independent of comparable data at neighboring burnup steps. More recent work has been targeted at understanding how reaction rates vary over time, in order to determine whether calculated reaction rates follow any observable trends. This abstract hones in on transient uncertainty quantification, in order to compare observed data against models for transient behavior. The first section of the paper uses linear regression tools to fit operational data, while the latter portion of the paper explores more complex simulation tools to fit operational data. Ultimately, the BEAVRS benchmark aims to serve as a true non-proprietary international benchmark for the validation of high-fidelity tools. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

MetaboTools: A comprehensive toolbox for analysis of genome-scale metabolic models

Metabolomic data sets provide a direct read-out of cellular phenotypes and are increasingly generated to study biological questions. Previous work, by us and others, revealed the potential of analyzing extracellular metabolomic data in the context of the metabolic model using constraint-based modeling. With the MetaboTools, we make our methods available to the broader scientific community. The MetaboTools consist of a protocol, a toolbox, and tutorials of two use cases. The protocol describes, in a step-wise manner, the workflow of data integration, and computational analysis. The MetaboTools comprise the Matlab code required to complete the workflow described in the protocol. Tutorials explain the computational steps for integration of two different data sets and demonstrate a comprehensive set of methods for the computational analysis of metabolic models and stratification thereof into different phenotypes. The presented workflow supports integrative analysis of multiple omics data sets. Importantly, all analysis tools can be applied to metabolic models without performing the entire workflow. Taken together, the MetaboTools constitute a comprehensive guide to the intra-model analysis of extracellular metabolomic data from microbial, plant, or human cells. In conclusion, this computational modeling resource offers a broad set of computational analysis tools for a wide biomedical and non-biomedical research community.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Discovery of Activities via Statistical Clustering of Fixation Patterns

Human behavior often consists of a series of distinct activities, each characterized by a unique pattern of interaction with the visual environment. This is true even in a restricted domain, such as a pilot flying an airplane; in this case, activities with distinct visual signatures might be things like communicating, navigating, monitoring, etc. We propose a novel analysis method for gaze-tracking data, to perform blind discovery of these hypothetical activities. We compare, not individual fixations, but groups of fixations aggregated over a fixed time interval (Tau). We assume that the environment has been divided into a finite set of discrete areas-of-interest (AOIs). For a given time interval, we compute the proportion of time spent fixating each AOI, resulting in an N-dimensional vector, where N is the number of AOIs. These proportions can be converted to integer counts by multiplying by Tau divided by the average fixation duration, a parameter that we fix at 283 milliseconds. We compare different intervals by computing the chi-squared statistic. The p-value associated with the statistic is the likelihood of observing the data under the hypothesis that the data in the two intervals were generated by a single process with a single set of probabilities governing the fixation of each AOI. We cluster the intervals, first by merging adjacent intervals that are sufficiently similar, optionally shifting the boundary between non-merged intervals to maximize the difference. Then we compare and cluster non-adjacent intervals. The method is evaluated using synthetic data generated by a hand-crafted set of activities. While the method generally finds more activities than put into the simulation, we have obtained agreement as high as 80 percent between the inferred activity labels and ground truth.

Eye Movements↗

Coupled rotor/fuselage dynamic analysis of the AH-1G helicopter and correlation with flight vibrations data

Under a research program designated Design Analysis Methods for VIBrationS (DAMVIBS), existing analytical methods are used for calculating coupled rotor-fuselage vibrations of the AH-1G helicopter for correlation with flight test data from an AH-1G Operational Load Survey (OLS) test program. The analytical representation of the fuselage structure is based on a NASTRAN finite element model (FEM), which has been developed, extensively documented, and correlated with ground vibration test. One procedure that was used for predicting coupled rotor-fuselage vibrations using the advanced Rotorcraft Flight Simulation Program C81 and NASTRAN is summarized. Detailed descriptions of the analytical formulation of rotor dynamics equations, fuselage dynamic equations, coupling between the rotor and fuselage, and solutions to the total system of equations in C81 are included. Analytical predictions of hub shears for main rotor harmonics 2p, 4p, and 6p generated by C81 are used in conjunction with 2p OLS measured control loads and a 2p lateral tail rotor gearbox force, representing downwash impingement on the vertical fin, to excite the NASTRAN model. NASTRAN is then used to correlate with measured OLS flight test vibrations. Blade load comparisons predicted by C81 showed good agreement. In general, the fuselage vibration correlations show good agreement between anslysis and test in vibration response through 15 to 20 Hz.

Corrigan, J. C.↗