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DOE OSTI2024

Seismic moment tensor classification using elliptical distribution functions on the hypersphere

Discrimination of underground explosions from naturally occurring earthquakes and other anthropogenic sources is one of the fundamental challenges of nuclear explosion monitoring. In an operational setting, the number of events that can be thoroughly investigated by analysts is limited by available resources. The capability to rapidly screen out events that can be robustly identified as not being explosions is, therefore, of great potential benefit. Nevertheless, possible mis-classification of explosions as earthquakes currently limits the use of screening methods for verification of test-ban treaties. Moment tensors provide a physics-based classification tool for the characterization of different seismic sources and have enabled the advent of new techniques for discriminating between earthquakes and explosions. Following normalization and projection of their six-degree vectors onto the hypersphere, existing screening approaches use spherically symmetric metrics to determine whether any new moment tensor may have been an explosion. Here, we show that populations of moment tensors for both earthquakes and explosions are anisotropically distributed on the hypersphere. Distributions possessing elliptical symmetry, such as the scaled von Mises–Fisher distribution, therefore provide a better description of these populations than the existing spherically symmetric models. We describe a method that uses these elliptical distributions in combination with a Bayesian classifier to achieve successful classification rates of 99 per cent for explosions and 98 per cent for earthquakes using existing catalogues of events from the western United States. The 1983 May 5 Crowdie underground nuclear test and 2018 July 20 DAG-1 deep-borehole chemical explosion are the only two explosions out of 140 that are incorrectly classified. Application of the method to the 2006–2017 nuclear tests in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea yields 100 per cent identification rates and we provide a simple routine MTid for general usage. The approach provides a means to rapidly assess the likelihood of an event being an explosion and can be built into monitoring workflows that rely on simultaneously assessing multiple different discrimination metrics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic inference of the structure and orbit of Milky Way satellites with semi-analytic modelling

Semi-analytic modelling furnishes an efficient avenue for characterizing dark matter haloes associated with satellites of Milky Way-like systems, as it easily accounts for uncertainties arising from halo-to-halo variance, the orbital disruption of satellites, baryonic feedback, and the stellar-to-halo mass (SMHM) relation. We use the SatGen semi-analytic satellite generator, which incorporates both empirical models of the galaxy–halo connection as well as analytic prescriptions for the orbital evolution of these satellites after accretion onto a host to create large samples of Milky Way-like systems and their satellites. By selecting satellites in the sample that match observed properties of a particular dwarf galaxy, we can infer arbitrary properties of the satellite galaxy within the cold dark matter paradigm. For the Milky Way’s classical dwarfs, we provide inferred values (with associated uncertainties) for the maximum circular velocity v max and the radius r max at which it occurs, varying over two choices of baryonic feedback model and two prescriptions for the SMHM relation. While simple empirical scaling relations can recover the median inferred value for v max and r max , this approach provides realistic correlated uncertainties and aids interpretability. We also demonstrate how the internal properties of a satellite’s dark matter profile correlate with its orbit, and we show that it is difficult to reproduce observations of the Fornax dwarf without strong baryonic feedback. Furthermore, the technique developed in this work is flexible in its application of observational data and can leverage arbitrary information about the satellite galaxies to make inferences about their dark matter haloes and population statistics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2019

The Aemulus Project. I. Numerical Simulations for Precision Cosmology

The rapidly growing statistical precision of galaxy surveys has led to a need for ever more precise predictions of the observables used to constrain cosmological and galaxy formation models. The primary avenue through which such predictions will be obtained is suites of numerical simulations. These simulations must span the relevant model parameter spaces, be large enough to obtain the precision demanded by upcoming data, and be thoroughly validated in order to ensure accuracy. In this paper, we present one such suite of simulations, forming the basis for the AEMULUS Project, a collaboration devoted to precision emulation of galaxy survey observables. We have run a set of 75 (1.05 h(-1) Gpc)(3) simulations with mass resolution and force softening of 3.51 x 10(10) (Omega(m)/0.3) h(-1) M-circle dot and 20 h(-1) kpc, respectively, in 47 different wCDM cosmologies spanning the range of parameter space allowed by the combination of recent cosmic microwave background, baryon acoustic oscillation, and Type Ia supernova results. We present convergence tests of several observables including spherical overdensity halo mass functions, galaxy projected correlation functions, galaxy clustering in redshift space, and matter and halo correlation functions and power spectra. We show that these statistics are converged to 1% (2%) or to the sample variance of the statistic, whichever is larger, for halos with more than 500 (200) particles, respectively, and scales of r > 200 h(-1) kpc. in real space or k similar to 3 h Mpc(-1). in harmonic space for z <= 1. We find that the dominant source of uncertainty comes from varying the particle loading of the simulations. This leads to large systematic errors for statistics using halos with fewer than 200 particles and scales smaller than k similar to 4 h Mpc(-1). We provide the halo catalogs and snapshots detailed in this work to the community at. https://AemulusProject.github.io.

large-scale structure of universe↗

NASA NTRS1996

Numerical Modeling of Spray Combustion with an Unstructured-Grid Method

The present unstructured-grid method follows strictly the basic finite volume forms of the conservation laws of the governing equations for the entire flow domain. High-order spatially accurate formulation has been employed for the numerical solutions of the Navier-Stokes equations. A two-equation k-epsilon turbulence model is also incorporated in the unstructured-grid solver. The convergence of the resulted linear algebraic equation is accelerated with preconditioned Conjugate Gradient method. A statistical spray combustion model has been incorporated into the present unstructured-grid solver. In this model, spray is represented by discrete particles, rather than by continuous distributions. A finite number of computational particles are used to predict a sample of total population of particles. Particle trajectories are integrated using their momentum and motion equations and particles exchange mass, momentum and energy with the gas within the computational cell in which they are located. The interaction calculations are performed simultaneously and eliminate global iteration for the two-phase momentum exchange. A transient spray flame in a high pressure combustion chamber is predicted and then the solution of liquid-fuel combusting flow with a rotating cup atomizer is presented and compared with the experimental data. The major conclusion of this investigation is that the unstructured-grid method can be employed to study very complicated flow fields of turbulent spray combustion. Grid adaptation can be easily achieved in any flow domain such as droplet evaporation and combustion zone. Future applications of the present model can be found in the full three-dimensional study of flow fields of gas turbine and liquid propulsion engine combustion chambers with multi-injectors.

Shang, H. M.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Data Unfolding with Wiener-SVD Method

Here, data unfolding is a common analysis technique used in HEP data analysis. Inspired by the deconvolution technique in the digital signal processing, a new unfolding technique based on the SVD technique and the well-known Wiener filter is introduced. The Wiener-SVD unfolding approach achieves the unfolding by maximizing the signal to noise ratios in the effective frequency domain given expectations of signal and noise and is free from regularization parameter. Through a couple examples, the pros and cons of the Wiener-SVD approach as well as the nature of the unfolded results are discussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

J-PLUS: Systematic impact of metallicity on photometric calibration with the stellar locus

Here, we present the photometric calibration of the twelve optical passbands for the Javalambre Photometric Local Universe Survey (J-PLUS) second data release (DR2), comprising 1088 pointings of two square degrees, and study the systematic impact of metallicity on the stellar locus technique. The [Fe/H] metallicity from the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) for 146 184 high-quality calibration stars, defined with signal-to-noise ratio larger than ten in J-PLUS passbands and larger than three in Gaia parallax, was used to compute the metallicity-dependent stellar locus (ZSL). The initial homogenization of J-PLUS photometry, performed with a unique stellar locus, was refined by including the metallicity effect in colors via the ZSL. The variation of the average metallicity along the Milky Way produces a systematic offset in J-PLUS calibration. This effect is well above 1% for the bluer passbands and amounts 0.07, 0.07, 0.05, 0.03, and 0.02 mag in u, J0378, J0395, J0410, and J0430, respectively. We modeled this effect with the Milky Way location of the J-PLUS pointing, also providing an updated calibration for those observations without LAMOST information. The estimated accuracy in the calibration after including the metallicity effect is at 1% for the bluer J-PLUS passbands and below for the rest. Photometric calibration with the stellar locus technique is prone to significant systematic bias in the Milky Way for passbands bluer than λ = 4500 Å. The calibration method for J-PLUS DR2 reaches 1–2% precision and 1% accuracy for 12 optical filters within an area of 2176 square degrees.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1985

Use of observational and model-derived fields and regime model output statistics in mesoscale forecasting

Various empirical and statistical weather-forecasting studies which utilize stratification by weather regime are described. Objective classification was used to determine weather regime in some studies. In other cases the weather pattern was determined on the basis of a parameter representing the physical and dynamical processes relevant to the anticipated mesoscale phenomena, such as low level moisture convergence and convective precipitation, or the Froude number and the occurrence of cold-air damming. For mesoscale phenomena already in existence, new forecasting techniques were developed. The use of cloud models in operational forecasting is discussed. Models to calculate the spatial scales of forcings and resultant response for mesoscale systems are presented. The use of these models to represent the climatologically most prevalent systems, and to perform case-by-case simulations is reviewed. Operational implementation of mesoscale data into weather forecasts, using both actual simulation output and method-output statistics is discussed.

Forbes, G. S.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Reynolds number dependence of Lagrangian dispersion in direct numerical simulations of anisotropic magnetohydrodynamic turbulence

Large-scale magnetic fields thread through the electrically conducting matter of the interplanetary and interstellar medium, stellar interiors and other astrophysical plasmas, producing anisotropic flows with regions of high-Reynolds-number turbulence. It is common to encounter turbulent flows structured by a magnetic field with a strength approximately equal to the root-mean-square magnetic fluctuations. In this work, direct numerical simulations of anisotropic magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence influenced by such a magnetic field are conducted for a series of cases that have identical resolution, and increasing grid sizes up to $2048^3$ . The result is a series of closely comparable simulations at Reynolds numbers ranging from 1400 up to 21 000. We investigate the influence of the Reynolds number from the Lagrangian viewpoint by tracking fluid particles and calculating single-particle and two-particle statistics. The influence of Alfvénic fluctuations and the fundamental anisotropy on the MHD turbulence in these statistics is discussed. Single-particle diffusion curves exhibit mildly superdiffusive behaviours that differ in the direction aligned with the magnetic field and the direction perpendicular to it. Competing alignment processes affect the dispersion of particle pairs, in particular at the beginning of the inertial subrange of time scales. Scalings for relative dispersion, which become clearer in the inertial subrange for a larger Reynolds number, can be observed that are steeper than indicated by the Richardson prediction.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stringent σ8 constraints from small-scale galaxy clustering using a hybrid MCMC + emulator framework

ABSTRACT We present a novel simulation-based hybrid emulator approach that maximally derives cosmological and Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) information from non-linear galaxy clustering, with sufficient precision for DESI Year 1 (Y1) analysis. Our hybrid approach first samples the HOD space on a fixed cosmological simulation grid to constrain the high-likelihood region of cosmology + HOD parameter space, and then constructs the emulator within this constrained region. This approach significantly reduces the parameter volume emulated over, thus achieving much smaller emulator errors with fixed number of training points. We demonstrate that this combined with state-of-the-art simulations result in tight emulator errors comparable to expected DESI Y1 LRG sample variance. We leverage the new abacussummit simulations and apply our hybrid approach to CMASS non-linear galaxy clustering data. We infer constraints on σ8 = 0.762 ± 0.024 and fσ8(zeff = 0.52) = 0.444 ± 0.016, the tightest among contemporary galaxy clustering studies. We also demonstrate that our fσ8 constraint is robust against secondary biases and other HOD model choices, a critical first step towards showcasing the robust cosmology information accessible in non-linear scales. We speculate that the additional statistical power of DESI Y1 should tighten the growth rate constraints by at least another 50–60 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, significantly elucidating any potential tension with Planck. We also address the ‘lensing is low’ tension, which we find to be in the same direction as a potential tension in fσ8. We show that the combined effect of a lower fσ8 and environment-based bias accounts for approximately $50{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of the discrepancy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Hybrid methods for muon accelerator simulations with ionization cooling

Muon ionization cooling involves passing particles through solid or liquid absorbers. Careful simulations are required to design muon cooling channels. New features have been developed for inclusion in the transfer map code COSY Infinity to follow the distribution of charged particles through matter. To study the passage of muons through material, the transfer map approach alone is not sufficient. The interplay of beam optics and atomic processes must be studied by a hybrid transfer map-Monte-Carlo approach in which transfer map methods describe the deterministic behavior of the particles, and Monte-Carlo methods are used to provide corrections accounting for the stochastic nature of scattering and straggling of particles. The advantage of the new approach is that the vast majority of the dynamics are represented by fast application of the high-order transfer map of an entire element and accumulated stochastic effects. The gains in speed are expected to simplify the optimization of cooling channels which is usually computationally demanding. In conclusion, progress on the development of the required algorithms and their application to modeling muon ionization cooling channels is reported.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Real-time cure monitoring of fiber-reinforced polymer composites using infrared thermography and recursive Bayesian filtering

Despite the desirable characteristics of fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) composites, their utilization in high volume production industries is limited by a lack of efficient manufacturing techniques. Monitoring the curing process of these composites can help with improving the quality and efficiency of the manufacturing process. This article discusses a method that uses Kalman-filter-based fusion of the information obtained from infrared thermography (surface temperature measurements) and a heat conduction model to estimate degrees of cure and internal temperatures of curing FRP composite parts in real time. The effectiveness of the methodology is demonstrated by successfully monitoring the curing of an FRP composite part in a laboratory experiment. Finally, the proposed methodology is a crucial step towards identifying anomalies in the curing process that negatively impact the quality of FRP composite parts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Examining the Robustness of Weakened Orographic Influence on Precipitation in Downscaled Climate Projections Over the Western US

Assessing local climate change impacts often requires downscaling coarse global climate model (GCM) output to finer resolution. Two main approaches exist: dynamical downscaling using high-resolution regional climate models, and statistical downscaling based on historical relationships between large-scale and local variables. In a recent analysis of five dynamically downscaled simulations over the western United States, Koszuta et al. (2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl107298) found that warming weakens orographic influence on winter precipitation, damping increases on windward slopes and amplifying them in rain-shadowed regions. Here we show that this effect is robust across seasons and multiple dynamically downscaled ensembles, and is more pronounced at higher model resolutions. However, it is absent in projections from a widely used statistical model (LOCA2), even when trained on high-resolution future simulations (LOCA2-Hybrid). This highlights a key limitation of many statistical downscaling methods: their preservation of parent GCM trends, which usually fail to capture emergent changes in orographic precipitation patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive machine learning for time-varying systems: low dimensional latent space tuning

Machine learning (ML) tools such as encoder-decoder convolutional neural networks (CNN) can represent incredibly complex nonlinear functions which map between combinations of images and scalars. For example, CNNs can be used to map combinations of accelerator parameters and images which are 2D projections of the 6D phase space distributions of charged particle beams as they are transported between various particle accelerator locations. Despite their strengths, applying ML to time-varying systems, or systems with shifting distributions, is an open problem, especially for large systems for which collecting new data for re-training is impractical or interrupts operations. Particle accelerators are one example of large time-varying systems for which collecting detailed training data requires lengthy dedicated beam measurements which may no longer be available during regular operations. We present a novel method of adaptive ML for time-varying systems. Our approach is to map very high (N ≈ 100k) dimensional inputs (a combination of scalar parameters and images) into the low dimensional (N ≈ 2) latent space at the output of the encoder section of an encoder-decoder CNN. We then actively tune the low dimensional latent space-based representation of complex system dynamics by the addition of an adaptively tuned feedback vector directly before the decoder sections builds back up to our image-based high-dimensional phase space density representations. This method allows us to learn correlations within and to quickly tune the characteristics of incredibly large parameter space systems and to track their evolution in real time based on feedback without massive new data sets for re-training. We demonstrate that our method can accurately predict and track the phase space of charged particle beams at various locations in a particle accelerator by adaptively adjusting in real-time while the unknown input beam distribution of the accelerator is changing in shape, charge, and offset and while the RF system of the accelerator itself is also changing in an unpredictable way. For FACET-II we demonstrate that such an approach has the potential to use transverse deflecting cavity and energy spread spectrum beam measurements to accurately predict 2D projections of the 6D phase space of the electron beam at the plasma wakefield acceleration interaction point where such diagnostics are unavailable.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2017

A Study of the Gamma-Ray Burst Fundamental Plane

Long gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) with a plateau phase in their X-ray afterglows obey a 3D relation, between the rest-frame time at the end of the plateau, T {sub a} , its corresponding X-ray luminosity, L {sub a} , and the peak luminosity in the prompt emission, L {sub peak}. This 3D relation identifies a GRB fundamental plane whose existence we here confirm. Here we include the most recent GRBs observed by Swift to define a “gold sample” (45 GRBs) and obtain an intrinsic scatter about the plane compatible within 1 σ with the previous result. We compare GRB categories, such as short GRBs with extended emission (SEE), X-ray flashes, GRBs associated with supernovae, a sample of only long-duration GRBs (132), selected from the total sample by excluding GRBs of the previous categories, and the gold sample, composed by GRBs with light curves with good data coverage and relatively flat plateaus. We find that the relation planes for each of these categories are not statistically different from the gold fundamental plane, with the exception of the SSE, which are hence identified as a physically distinct class. The gold fundamental plane has an intrinsic scatter smaller than any plane derived from the other sample categories. Thus, the distance of any particular GRB category from this plane becomes a key parameter. We computed the several category planes with T {sub a} as a dependent parameter obtaining for each category smaller intrinsic scatters (reaching a reduction of 24% for the long GRBs). The fundamental plane is independent from several prompt and afterglow parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Mira-Titan Universe. III. Emulation of the Halo Mass Function

We construct an emulator for the halo mass function over group and cluster mass scales for a range of cosmologies, including the effects of dynamical dark energy and massive neutrinos. The emulator is based on the recently completed Mira-Titan Universe suite of cosmological N-body simulations. The main set of simulations spans 111 cosmological models with 2.1 Gpc boxes. We extract halo catalogs in the redshift range z = [0.0, 2.0] and for masses M-200c >= 10(13)M(circle dot)/h. The emulator covers an eight-dimensional hypercube spanned by {Omega(m)h(2), Omega(b)h(2), Omega(nu)h(2), sigma(8), h, n(s), w(0), w(a)}; spatial flatness is assumed. We obtain smooth halo mass functions by fitting piecewise second-order polynomials to the halo catalogs and employ Gaussian process regression to construct the emulator while keeping track of the statistical noise in the input halo catalogs and uncertainties in the regression process. For redshifts z less than or similar to 1, the typical emulator precision is better than 2% for 10(13)-10(14)M(circle dot)/h and <10<^> M similar or equal to 101(circle dot)(54)/h. For comparison, fitting functions using the traditional universal form for the halo mass function can be biased at up to 30% at M similar or equal to 10(144)M(circle dot)/h for z = 0. Our emulator is publicly available at https://github.com/SebastianBocquet/MiraTitanHMFemulator.

cosmology: theory↗

DOE OSTI2022

Constraining the shape of Milky Way satellites with distance gradients

We combine the Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey DR8 photometry with Gaia photometry to study the 3D structure of Bootes I, Draco, Ursa Minor, Sextans, and Sculptor dwarf galaxies using blue horizontal branch (BHB) stars as distance indicators. We construct a new colour–absolute magnitude of BHB stars that we use to measure the distance gradients within the body of the dwarf galaxies. We detect a statistically significant non-zero gradient only in Sextans and Sculptor. Through modelling of the gradient and 2D density of the systems by triaxial Plummer models, we find that the distance gradients in both dwarf galaxies are inconsistent with prolate shape, but compatible with oblate or triaxial shapes. In order to explain the observed gradients, oblate models of Sextans and Sculptor need to have a significant intrinsic ellipticity larger than 0.47 for Sextans and 0.46 for Sculptor. Furthermore, the flattened oblate shape may imply a significant anisotropy in velocity distribution in order to be consistent with the lack of significant velocity gradients in these systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

A Cosmic Void Catalog of SDSS DR12 BOSS Galaxies

We present a cosmic void catalog using the large-scale structure galaxy catalog from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS). This galaxy catalog is part of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 12 and is the final catalog of SDSS-III. We take into account the survey boundaries, masks, and angular and radial selection functions, and apply the ZOBOV void finding algorithm to the Galaxy catalog. We identify a total of 10,643 voids. After making quality cuts to ensure that the voids represent real underdense regions, we obtain 1,228 voids with effective radii spanning the range 20–100 h{sup −1} Mpc and with central densities that are, on average, 30% of the mean sample density. We release versions of the catalogs both with and without quality cuts. We discuss the basic statistics of voids, such as their size and redshift distributions, and measure the radial density profile of the voids via a stacking technique. In addition, we construct mock void catalogs from 1000 mock galaxy catalogs, and find that the properties of BOSS voids are in good agreement with those in the mock catalogs. We compare the stellar mass distribution of galaxies living inside and outside of the voids, and find no large difference. These BOSS and mock void catalogs are useful for a number of cosmological and galaxy environment studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Machine learning techniques in searches for$t\bar{t}$h in the h → $b\bar{b}$ decay channel

Study of the production of pairs of top quarks in association with a Higgs boson is one of the primary goals of the Large Hadron Collider over the next decade, as measurements of this process may help us to understand whether the uniquely large mass of the top quark plays a special role in electroweak symmetry breaking. Higgs bosons decay predominantly to b$\bar{_b}$, yielding signatures for the signal that are similar to t$\bar{_t}$ + jets with heavy flavor. Though particularly challenging to study due to the similar kinematics between signal and background events, such final states (t$\bar{_t}$b$\bar{b}$) are an important channel for studying the top quark Yukawa coupling. This paper presents a systematic study of machine learning (ML) methods for detecting t$\bar{_t}$h in the h → b$\bar{b}$ decay channel. Among the seven ML methods tested, we show that neural network models outperform alternative methods. In addition, two neural models used in this paper outperform NeuroBayes, one of the standard algorithms used in current particle physics experiments. We further study the effectiveness of ML algorithms by investigating the impact of feature set and data size, as well as the depth of the networks for neural models. We demonstrate that an extended feature set leads to improvement of performance over basic features. Furthermore, the availability of large samples for training is found to be important for improving the performance of the techniques. For the features and the data set studied here, neural networks of more layers deliver comparable performance to their simpler counterparts.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗