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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Influence of SMAP Soil Moisture Retrieval Assimilation on Runoff Estimation Across South Asia

This study was designed to characterize and quantify the influence of surface soil moisture assimilation on estimated runoff (surface flow and baseflow) and hydraulically-routed streamflow across three large river basins in South Asia that are at risk of impending water stress. Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) surface soil moisture retrievals were assimilated into the Noah-MP land surface model. The gridded runoff was hydraulically routed to obtain volumetric streamflow values for a river network using a runoff routing module (Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform, HyMAP). The open loop (OL, model-only) and data assimilated (DA, includes soil moisture retrieval assimilation) Noah-MP runoff estimates highlighted the improvements in estimated total runoff across irrigated areas. Soil moisture assimilation impacted baseflow more relative to surface runoff. The HyMAP-based OL and DA streamflow generally underestimated the streamflow at upstream stations and overestimated the streamflow at downstream stations within the Indus basin due to missing physics related to reservoir operations. For stations located in the Ganges–Brahmaputra basins, the OL and DA estimation performance varied. The OL and DA results showed that the assimilation of soil moisture retrievals improves gridded runoff and volumetric streamflow across irrigated areas. Considerable relative change in streamflow (>70% increase in magnitude relative to OL) is noted after assimilation across the highly irrigated lower Indus basin and high precipitation regions in Bangladesh. Improving the modeling system’s representativeness of ground conditions via inclusion of water management information could improve large-scale streamflow modeling across South Asia.

soil moisture↗

Topography of the Moon from the Clementine Lidar

Range measurements from the lidar instrument carried aboard the Clementine spacecraft have been used to produce an accurate global topographic model of the Moon. This paper discusses the function of the lidar; the acquisition, processing, and filtering of observations to produce a global topographic model; and the determination of parameters that define the fundamental shape of the Moon. Our topographic model: a 72nd degree and order spherical harmonic expansion of lunar radii, is designated Goddard Lunar Topography Model 2 (GLTM 2). This topographic field has an absolute vertical accuracy of approximately 100 m and a spatial resolution of 2.5 deg. The field shows that the Moon can be described as a sphere with maximum positive and negative deviations of approx. 8 km, both occurring on the farside, in the areas of the Korolev and South Pole-Aitken (S.P.-Aitken) basins. The amplitude spectrum of the topography shows more power at longer wavelengths as compared to previous models, owing to more complete sampling of the surface, particularly the farside. A comparison of elevations derived from the Clementine lidar to control point elevations from the Apollo laser altimeters indicates that measured relative topographic heights generally agree to within approx. 200 in over the maria. While the major axis of the lunar gravity field is aligned in the Earth-Moon direction, the major axis of topography is displaced from this line by approximately 10 deg to the cast and intersects the farside 24 deg north of the equator. The magnitude of impact basin topography is greater than the lunar flattening (approx. 2 km) and equatorial ellipticity (approx. 800 m), which imposes a significant challenge to interpreting the lunar figure. The floors of mare basins are shown to lie close to an equipotential surface, while the floors of unflooded large basins, except for S.P.-Aitken, lie above this equipotential. The radii of basin floors are thus consistent with a hydrostatic mechanism for the absence of significant farside maria except for S.P.-Aitken, whose depth and lack of mare require significant internal compositional and/or thermal heterogeneity. A macroscale surface roughness map shows that roughness at length scales of 10(exp 1) - 10(exp 2) km correlates with elevation and surface age.

Smith, David E.↗

Evaluating SWAT + model uncertainties for human and natural outcomes: Application in a Great Lakes agricultural watershed

Nutrient exports from agricultural lands in the Great Lakes Region pose significant threats to water quality and ecological health through eutrophication, hypoxia, and harmful algal blooms. Climate change and agricultural adaptation practices complicate future nutrient loading due to intensified hydrologic cycles and land use decisions. Our research focuses on evaluating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) plus model parametric uncertainties for human and natural outcomes across different scales. These factors are integral to ensuring a balance between productive agricultural practices and maintaining the health of watershed hydrology. However, uncertainties in modeling such complex interactions pose significant challenges, limiting our ability to precisely determine critical factors that influence crop yield and soil moisture. Our analysis employs Sobol global sensitivity analysis to evaluate first-order, second order, and total-order indices for SWAT crop growth parameter, ensuring comprehensive assessment of individual and interactive effects on model outputs. The objective is to identify the parameters that significantly affect model outputs for crop yield and soil moisture and improve our understanding of their interactions at the basin and hydrological response unit (HRU) scale. Our case study, the Portage River Watershed, which drains into Lake Erie, is chosen to better capture finer scale interactions crucial for predicting nutrient loading under future climate scenarios. This foundational work is aimed at setting the stage for the future development of an agent-based model (ABM). The ABM model would incorporate SWAT outputs to dynamically simulate decision-making processes.

Bunyon, Enock↗

Structural and Stratigraphic Controls on Methane Hydrate occurrence and distribution: Gulf of Mexico, Walker Ridge 313 and Green Canyon 955: Final Report

The goal of this project was to determine structural and stratigraphic controls on hydrate occurrence and distribution in Green Canyon (GC) 955 and Walker Ridge (WR) 313 blocks using seismic and well data. Gas hydrate was discovered in these blocks in coarse- and fine-grained sediments during the 2009 Joint Industrial project (JIP) Leg 11 drilling expedition. Although the immediate interest of the exploration community is exclusively hydrate which is present in coarse–grained sediments, factors that control hydrate and free gas distribution in the two blocks and whether coarse and fine-grained hydrate-bearing units are related in any manner, formed the core of this research. The project spanned from 10/01/2012 to 07/31/2016. In the project, in both the leased blocks, the interval spanning the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) was characterized using a joint analysis of sparse Ocean Bottom Seismic (OBS) and dense, surface–towed multichannel seismic (MCS) data. The project team had the luxury of calibrating their results with two well logs. Advance processing methods such as depth migration and full-waveform inversion (FWI) were used for seismic data analysis. Hydrate quantification was achieved through interpretation of the FWI velocity field using appropriate rock physics models at both blocks. The seismic modeling/inversion methodology (common to both GC955 and WR313 blocks) was as follows. First, the MCS data were depth migrated using a P-wave velocity (VP) model constructed using inversion of reflection arrival times of a few (four in both cases) key horizons carefully picked in the OBS data to farthest possible offsets. Then, the resolution of the traveltime VP model was improved to wavelength scale by inverting OBS gathers up to the highest frequency possible (21.75 Hz for GC955 and 17.5 for WR313) using FWI. Finally, the hydrate saturation (or the volume fraction) was estimated at the well location assuming one of the other hydrate morphology (filling the primary or the secondary porosity) was extrapolated out from the wells using the FWI VP as a guide. General outcomes were as follows. First and foremost, an imaging methodology using sparse seismic data, which is easily replicable at other sites with similar datasets, has been demonstrated. The end product of this methodology at both the leased blocks is quantitative estimates of hydrate distribution. Second, at both locations there is strong evidence that the base of the GHSZ, which does not appear as a clear Bottom Simulating Reflection (BSR), manifests in the VP perturbations created by FWI, suggesting that FWI is sensitive to subtle compositional changes in shallow sediments and establishes it as a valuable tool for investigations of hydrate-bearing basins. Third, through joint interpretation of the depth migrated image and the FWI VP model, how structure and stratigraphy jointly determine hydrate and free gas distribution in both blocks could be clearly visualized. The joint interpretation also suggests that the coarse and fine grained hydrate-bearing sediments at both leased are connected. Site specific results, in addition to general results, are as follows. At GC955 the overlying fine-grained hydrate-bearing unit could have been sourced from the underlying hydrate coarse-grained channel-levee complex through a chimney feature. The channel-levee system at GC955 is compartmentalized by faults, of which only a few may be impermeable. Although compartmentalized, the channel-levee system in the GC955 as a whole might be in communication except selected zones. At WR313 the overlying fine-grained fracture-filled hydrate unit appears to be sourced from below the GHSZ. The reason that only a particular fine-grained unit has hydrate, despite having lower porosity that the bounding units, could be the presence of secondary porosity (such as those formed from clay dewatering under compaction). In conclusion, the project was a pioneering effort in in joint analysis of OBS and MCS datasets for advancing the knowledge about a hydrate and free–gas system dynamics using advanced processing methods such as FWI and depth migration. Results obtained in this project can greatly advance the tools and techniques used for delineating specific hydrate prospects. Results obtained in this project can also be seamlessly incorporated into other DOE funded project on modeling the potential productivity and commercial viability of hydrate from sand-dominated reservoirs. The OBS and MCS data in this project were acquired in 2012 (after the JIP II drilling) by the USGS and therefore the results are a posteriori. Nonetheless, the seismic inversion workflow established through this project can be used to generate various what-if quantification scenarios even in absence of logs and serve as a valuable tool for guiding drilling operations. Results from this project can augment other DOE sponsored projects on determining the commercial viability of methane production from the Gulf of Mexico.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Stock-specific spatial overlap among seabird predators and Columbia River juvenile Chinook Salmon suggests a mechanism for predation during early marine residence

Abstract Objective Because predation is thought to be the primary source of natural mortality for juvenile salmon first entering the ocean, we sought to identify regions where, on average, stock-specific spatial overlap between the distribution of threatened and endangered juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and abundant fish-eating seabirds (common murres Uria aalge and sooty shearwaters Ardenna grisea) suggests the greatest potential for ocean predation risk to juvenile Chinook Salmon. Methods The relative abundance and spatial distribution of seabird predators and juvenile Chinook Salmon were quantified as part of long-term ecosystem surveys during May 2003–2012 and June 2003–2022. Genetic stock identification methods were used to assign individual fish to their respective stock groups. Stock-specific species distribution models then generated maps and indices of average annual spatial overlap between predators and prey within the survey area. Result There is unequivocal evidence for spatial overlap between common murres, sooty shearwaters, and five genetic groups of interior and lower Columbia River juvenile Chinook Salmon. We found strongly positive (≥0.70) spatial correlations between predator and prey densities in both May and June, although spatial overlap was, in general, greater during May. The region of highest spatial overlap occurred on the inner continental shelf between the Columbia River mouth (46.2°N) and Grays Harbor (47.0°N), a region at the beginning of the juvenile salmon migratory pathway that is strongly affected by freshwater outflow from the river. Conclusion Our findings support the idea that ocean avian predation during early marine residence has the potential to affect marine survival of juvenile Chinook Salmon and should be further investigated to better inform and implement ecological models and possible recovery actions for Chinook Salmon populations of the Columbia River basin.

Zamon, Jeannette E.↗

Optimal CO 2 storage management considering safety constraints in multi-stakeholder multi-site GCS projects: A Markov game perspective

Geological carbon storage (GCS) projects could involve a diverse array of stakeholders or players from public, private, and regulatory sectors, each with different objectives and responsibilities. Given the complexity, scale, and long-term nature of GCS operations, determining whether individual stakeholders can independently optimize their interests — or whether collaborative coalition agreements are needed — remains a central question for effective GCS project planning and management. To access large, high-quality storage resources, future GCS deployment may increasingly occur in geologically connected sites, where shared geological features such as pressure space and reservoir pore capacity can lead to competitive behavior among stakeholders. In this work, we propose a paradigm based on Markov games to quantitatively investigate how different coalition structures affect the goals of stakeholders. We frame this multi-stakeholder multi-site problem as a multi-agent reinforcement learning problem with safety constraints. Our approach enables agents to learn optimal strategies while complying with safety regulations. We present an example where multiple operators are injecting CO 2 into their respective project areas in a geologically connected basin. To address the high computational cost of repeated simulations of high fidelity models, a previously developed surrogate model based on the Embed-to-Control (E2C) framework is employed. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework in addressing optimal management of CO 2 storage when multiple stakeholders with different objectives and goals are involved.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Human-induced changes to the global ocean water masses and their time of emergence

The World Ocean is rapidly changing, with global and regional modification of temperature and salinity, resulting in widespread and irreversible impacts. While the most pronounced observed temperature and salinity changes are located in the upper ocean, changes in water masses at depth have been identified and will probably strengthen in the future. In this study, using 11 climate models, we define when anthropogenic temperature and salinity changes are expected to emerge from natural variability in the ocean interior along density surfaces. The models predict that in 2020, 20–55% of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian basins have an emergent anthropogenic signal; reaching 40–65% in 2050 and 55–80% in 2080. The well-ventilated Southern Ocean water masses emerge very rapidly, as early as the 1980–1990s, while the Northern Hemisphere water masses emerge in the 2010–2030s. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining and augmenting an ocean observing system capable of detecting and monitoring persistent anthropogenic changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

rmap: An R package to plot and compare tabular data on customizable maps across scenarios and time

`rmap` is an R package that allows users to easily plot tabular data (CSV or R data frames) on maps without any Geographic Information Systems (GIS) knowledge. Maps produced by `rmap` are `ggplot` objects and thus capitalize on the flexibility and advancements of the `ggplot2` package and all elements of each map are thus fully customizable. Additionally `rmap` automatically detects and produces comparison maps if the data has multiple scenarios or time periods as well as animations for time series data. Advanced users can load their own shapefiles if desired. `rmap` comes with a range of pre-built color palettes but users can also provide any `R` color palette or create their own as needed. Four different legend types are available to highlight different kinds of data distributions. The input spatial data can be both gridded or polygon data. `rmap` is desgined in particular for comparing spatial data across scenarios and time periods and comes preloaded with standard country, state, and basin maps as well as custom maps compatible with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) spatial boundaries. `rmap` has a growing number of users and its products have been used in multiple multisector dynamics publications as well as a required dependency in other R packages such as `rfasst` and `metis`. `rmap's` automatic processing of tabular data using pre-built map selection, difference map calculations, faceting, and animations offers unique functionality which makes it a powerful and yet simple tool for users looking to explore multi-sector, multi-scenario data across space and time.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Assessing Nutrient and Carbon Responses to Agricultural Conservation Practices in Two Midwest Watersheds

The United States is undertaking efforts to transition to a low-carbon economy in response to the heightened impacts of climate change, which are largely attributed to decades of carbon-intensive development. A concerted effort by the energy sector to achieve net-zero carbon emissions is aimed at strategically reducing the carbon footprint of the energy supply chain, particularly in the production of feedstocks for biofuels. The production of biofuels relies heavily on land use and management practices in biomass cultivation. Among other factors, soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a crucial role in the biofuel carbon cycle, impacting land productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and water quality. The process of carbon drawdown during plant growth and storage helps to mitigate the release of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into the atmosphere. Another key parameter is the release of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) — a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential 273 times that of CO 2 — from soil. While prioritizing low-carbon production, sustainable bioenergy also necessitates improved water quality and ecosystem services. Agricultural conservation practices can contribute to enhanced soil health and reduce nutrient and sediment loss into streams. However, studies that explore the broader impact of these practices on soil carbon storage and N 2 O emissions at a watershed scale are limited. Specifically, our understanding of how low-carbon feedstock production and management affect nutrient cycle dynamics is incomplete. This study assesses watershed responses to land management practices in two agriculturally dominant watersheds: the Raccoon River watershed and the Southfork of Iowa River watershed. The study focuses on carbon and nutrient dynamics, characterizing spatial and temporal variations in SOC, N 2 O, and nutrient loadings to examine the relationship between nutrient and carbon responses and agricultural conservation practices. The study employs the newly developed Soil Water Analysis Tool for Carbon (SWAT-C) model, calibrated using 20 years’ of climate and water monitoring data, to simulate and evaluate two agricultural conservation practices: no-till and crop residue harvest with cover crop planting. We compared the calibrated SWAT-C model with a historical baseline model, which allowed us to analyze various aspects of the watershed, including stream flow, suspended sediments, nitrogen, phosphorus, organic carbon, SOC at different depths, and N 2 O emissions from topsoil. Our SWAT-C modeling results indicate that, compared with results from the historical baseline model, no-till practices are positively correlated with SOC accumulation, reduced N 2 O emissions, and decreased soil loss. We also observed no change or slightly increased nitrogen and phosphorus loss to water bodies in the watersheds compared with the baseline. Conversely, crop residue harvest with cover crop planting improved water quality by reducing nutrient and soil losses but also increased N 2 O emissions. This SWAT-C modeling study establishes the groundwork for further smaller-scale and/or sub-basin-level assessments of nitrogen, phosphorus, and carbon cycles. It provides valuable science-based insights to inform policy decisions — particularly in the context of transitioning to biofuel feedstock production in these watersheds — by addressing concerns about nutrient exports to local water bodies and, ultimately, the Mississippi River.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The cometary contribution to the oceans of primitive earth

The total mass incident on the moon during the period of heavy bombardment is estimated on the basis of recent compilations of the lunar impact record, together with a mass-scaling law for crater diameters in the large-body regime. Using only those craters and basins extant, a lower limit is obtained that is independent of cometary flux models as well as of extrapolations of the lunar impact record or assumptions about the cometary mass spectrum. The results obtained indicate that the earth would have acquired an exogenous ocean of water 4.5-3.8 Gyr ago, if cometary mass constituted more than about 10 percent of the impacting population.

Chyba, Christopher F.↗

An ice-ocean coupled model for the Northern Hemisphere

The Hibler ice model has been modified and adapted to a domain that includes most of the sea ice-covered areas in the Northern Hemisphere. This model, joined with the Cox ocean model, is developed as an enhancement to the U.S. Navy's sea ice forecasting, PIPS, and is termed PIPS2.0. Generally, the modeled ice edge is consistent with the Navy-NOAA Joint Ice Center weekly analysis, and the modeled ice thickness distribution agrees with submarine sonar data in the central Arctic basin.

Cheng, Abe↗

Ocean topography mapping, improvement of the marine geoid, and global permanent ocean circulation studies from TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data

The TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter measurements will be the first global observations of the sea surface with accuracy sufficient to make quantitative determinations of the ocean's general circulation and its variations. These measurements are an important step to understanding global change in the ocean and its impact on the climate. Our investigation will focus on the examination of features in the sea surface elevation at the largest spatial and temporal scales. TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter measurements will be used in conjunction with observations from past satellite-altimeter missions, such as NASA's GEOS-3 and Seasat, the U.S. Navy's Geosat and SALT, and the European Remote Sensing satellite in order to address the following issues: (1) Improve models of the marine geoid, especially at wavelengths needed to understand the basin-scale ocean dynamic topograpy. (2) Measure directly from the altimeter data the expression of the mean global ocean circulation in the sea surface at the largest scales through a simultaneous solution for gravity, orbital, and oceanographic parameters. (3) Examine the sea surface measurements for changes in global ocean mass or volume, interannual variations in the basin-scale ocean circulation, and annual changes in the heating and cooling of the upper ocean.

Marsh, James G.↗

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Mars Geophysics

The titles in this section include: 1) Distribution of Large Visible and Buried Impact Basins on Mars: Comparison with Free-Air Gravity, Crustal Thickness, and Magnetization Models; 2) The Early Thermal and Magnetic State of Terra Cimmeria, Southern Highlands of Mars; 3) Compatible Vector Components of the Magnetic Field of the Martian Crust; 4) Vertical Extrapolation of Mars Magnetic Potentials; 5) Rock Magnetic Fields Shield the Surface of Mars from Harmful Radiation; 6) Loading-induced Stresses near the Martian Hemispheric Dichotomy Boundary; 7) Growth of the Hemispheric Dichotomy and the Cessation of Plate Tectonics on Mars; 8) A Look at the Interior of Mars; 9) Uncertainties on Mars Interior Parameters Deduced from Orientation Parameters Using Different Radio-Links: Analytical Simulations; 10) Refinement of Phobos Ephemeris Using Mars Orbiter Laser Altimetry Radiometry.

Source record↗

The lunar swirls - Distribution and possible origins

Correlative data analysis and theoretical modeling methods are used to evaluate models involving both meteoroid and cometary impact processes which can explain the correlation in location of the strongest lunar magnetic anomalies with swirl-like high-albedo and low-albedo markings of the Reiner Gamma class. The results indicate that the relatively strong magnetization of basin antipode zones may have favored the formation of swirls in the same regions. The solar wind deflection model is tested by calculating the trajectories of simulated solar wind ions deflected by the Lorentz force in the presence of model crustal magnetic fields.

Hood, L. L.↗

Improving Wind Energy Forecasting through Numerical Weather Prediction Model Development

The primary goal of the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is to advance the state-of-the-art of wind energy forecasting in complex terrain. To achieve this goal, a comprehensive 18-month field measurement campaign was conducted in the region of the Columbia River basin. The observations were used to diagnose and quantify systematic forecast errors in the operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model during weather events of particular concern to wind energy forecasting. Examples of such events are cold pools, gap flows, thermal troughs/marine pushes, mountain waves, and topographic wakes. WFIP2 model development has focused on the boundary layer and surface-layer schemes, cloud–radiation interaction, the representation of drag associated with subgrid-scale topography, and the representation of wind farms in the HRRR. Additionally, refinements to numerical methods have helped to improve some of the common forecast error modes, especially the high wind speed biases associated with early erosion of mountain–valley cold pools. This study describes the model development and testing undertaken during WFIP2 and demonstrates forecast improvements. Specifically, WFIP2 found that mean absolute errors in rotor-layer wind speed forecasts could be reduced by 5%–20% in winter by improving the turbulent mixing lengths, horizontal diffusion, and gravity wave drag. The model improvements made in WFIP2 are also shown to be applicable to regions outside of complex terrain. Ongoing and future challenges in model development will also be discussed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Quantifying the impacts of land surface schemes and dynamic vegetation on the model dependency of projected changes in surface energy and water budgets

Assessing and quantifying the uncertainties in projected future changes of energy and water budgets over land surface are important steps toward improving our confidence in climate change projections. In our study, the contribution of land surface models to the inter-GCM variation of projected future changes in land surface energy and water fluxes are assessed based on output from 19 global climate models (GCMs) and offline Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) simulations driven by meteorological forcing from the 19 GCMs. Similar offline simulations using CLM4 with its dynamic vegetation submodel are also conducted to investigate how dynamic vegetation feedback, a process that is being added to more earth system models, may amplify or moderate the intermodel variations of projected future changes. Projected changes are quantified as the difference between the 2081–2100 period from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) future experiment and the 1981–2000 period from the historical simulation. Under RCP8.5, projected changes in surface water and heat fluxes show a high degree of model dependency across the globe. Although precipitation is very likely to increase in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, a high degree of model-related uncertainty exists for evapotranspiration, soil water content, and surface runoff, suggesting discrepancy among land surface models (LSMs) in simulating the surface hydrological processes and snow-related processes. Large model-related uncertainties for the surface water budget also exist in the Tropics including southeastern South America and Central Africa. Moreover, these uncertainties would be reduced in the hypothetical scenario of a single near-perfect land surface model being used across all GCMs, suggesting the potential to reduce uncertainties through the use of more consistent approaches toward land surface model development. Under such a scenario, the most significant reduction is likely to be seen in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. Including representation of vegetation dynamics is expected to further amplify the model-related uncertainties in projected future changes in surface water and heat fluxes as well as soil moisture content. This is especially the case in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (e.g., northwestern North America and central North Asia) where the projected vegetation changes are uncertain and in the Tropics (e.g., the Amazon and Congo Basins) where dense vegetation exists. Finally, findings from this study highlight the importance of improving land surface model parameterizations related to soil and snow processes, as well as the importance of improving the accuracy of dynamic vegetation models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Vector constraints on western U.S. deformation from space geodesy, neotectonics, and plate motions

The rate-of-slip vector on the San Andreas fault in central California estimated from geodetic and Holocene geological data is inconsistent with the prediction of rigid plate models such as RM2. This well-known 'San Andreas discrepancy' is diagnostic of plate deformation distributed both east of the fault in the Basin and Range and west of the fault along the California continental margin. Constraints on the integrated deformation rates across these two regions consistent with: (1) the kinematical boundary conditions imposed by the rigid plate model; (2) neotectonic and paleoseismic estimates of deformation rates; (3) ground-based geodetic measurements; and (4) rates of change observed by very long baseline interferometry along seven baselines to western U.S. sites are constructed. The space-geodetic data on Basin and Range extension taken over a 4-year interval are compatible with geological observations averaged over the Holocene; the best estimate of its integrated deformation rate, provided by the joint inversion of both data types, is 9.7 + or - 2.1 mm/yr, N 56 deg W + or - 10 deg, too small and in the wrong direction to account entirely for the San Andreas discrepancy. The integral of this deformation, estimated by subtracting the Basin and Range contribution from the discrepancy vector, requires significant right-lateral shear parallel to the San Andreas (13 + or - 5 mm/yr) and some compression perpendicular to it (9 + or - 3 mm/yr).

Minster, J. Bernard↗

A Time Scale for Major Events in Early Mars Crustal Evolution

The population of visible and buried impact basins > 200 km diameter revealed by high resolution gridded MOLA data and the cumulative frequency curves derived for these pvide a basis for a chronology of major events in early martian history. The relative chronology can be given in terms of N(200) crater retention ages; 'absolute ages' can be assigued using the Hartmann-Neukum (H&N) model chronology. In terms of billions of H&N years, the crustal dichotomy formed by large impact basins at 4.12 +/- 0.08 BYA (N(200) = 3.0-3.2) and the global magnetic field died at about or slightly before the same time (4.15 +/- 0.08 BYA (N(200) = 3.5). In this chronology, the buried lowlands are approx. 120 my younger than the buried highlands, approx. 160 my younger than the highlands overall and approx. 340 my younger than the oldest crater retention surface we see, defined by the largest impact basins.

Frey, Herbert V.↗