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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Regional climate change: consensus, discrepancies, and ways forward

Climate change has emerged across many regions. Some observed regional climate changes, such as amplified Arctic warming and land-sea warming contrasts have been predicted by climate models. However, many other observed regional changes, such as changes in tropical sea surface temperature and monsoon rainfall are not well simulated by climate model ensembles even when taking into account natural internal variability and structural uncertainties in the response of models to anthropogenic radiative forcing. This suggests climate model predictions may not fully reflect what our future will look like. The discrepancies between models and observations are not well understood due to several real and apparent puzzles and limitations such as the “signal-to-noise paradox” and real-world record-shattering extremes falling outside of the possible range predicted by models. Addressing these discrepancies, puzzles and limitations is essential, because understanding and reliably predicting regional climate change is necessary in order to communicate effectively about the underlying drivers of change, provide reliable information to stakeholders, enable societies to adapt, and increase resilience and reduce vulnerability. The challenges of achieving this are greater in the Global South, especially because of the lack of observational data over long time periods and a lack of scientific focus on Global South climate change. To address discrepancies between observations and models, it is important to prioritize resources for understanding regional climate predictions and analyzing where and why models and observations disagree via testing hypotheses of drivers of biases using observations and models. Gaps in understanding can be discovered and filled by exploiting new tools, such as artificial intelligence/machine learning, high-resolution models, new modeling experiments in the model hierarchy, better quantification of forcing, and new observations. Conscious efforts are needed toward creating opportunities that allow regional experts, particularly those from the Global South, to take the lead in regional climate research. This includes co-learning in technical aspects of analyzing simulations and in the physics and dynamics of regional climate change. Finally, improved methods of regional climate communication are needed, which account for the underlying uncertainties, in order to provide reliable and actionable information to stakeholders and the media.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Phase-curve Pollution of Exoplanet Transit Depths

The next generation of space telescopes will enable transformative science to understand the nature and origin of exoplanets. In particular, transit spectroscopy will reveal the chemical composition of the exoplanet atmospheres with unprecedented detail thanks to precise measurements of the visible-to-infrared transit depths down to 10 parts per million. Such a level of instrumental precision raises the challenge to obtain even more precise astrophysical models so as not to significantly influence the interpretation of the observed data. We must therefore critically revisit some of the commonly accepted assumptions that were adequate for analyzing past and current observations. A common approximation in the analysis of exoplanetary primary transits is that the planet does not contribute to the recorded flux, so-called dark planet hypothesis. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the dark planet hypothesis on the parameters obtained from the analysis of transits with particular attention to the transit depth. We develop mathematical formulae and release new software to estimate the magnitude of the potential bias. These tools will be useful in the preparation of observing proposals, as well as within the scientific consortia of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the Atmospheric Remote-sensing Infrared Exoplanet Large-survey (ARIEL) missions. We probe the accuracy of the mathematical formulae through the analysis of synthetic observations with the JWST Mid-InfraRed Instrument. We find that self-blending from nightside emission attenuates the transit depth by >3σ for some of the known exoplanet systems, in agreement with previous work. An additional unreported effect caused by the nightside rotating into view can also impart a significant effect, but in the opposite direction (increasing the transit depth); this effect can largely be removed with conventional detrending practices, at the expense of a slight increase in noise, and mixing astrophysical variations and instrumental drifts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Ultrahigh energy gamma rays: Carriers of cosmological information

Observational data being the basis of contemporary cosmological models are not numerous: Hubble law of redshift for galaxies, element abundances, and observation of cosmic microwave background radiation (MBR). The significance of MBR discovery predicted in the Big-Band model is particularly stressed. Radio astronomical measurements give an information on MBR only near the Earth. Experimental confirmation of evolution of MBR, i.e., its probing in remote epochs, might obviously present a direct verification of the hypothesis of hot expanding Universe. The carriers of similar cosmological information should be particles which, firstly, effectively interact with MBR, and secondly, make it possible to identify unambiguously the epoch of interaction. A possibility to verify a number of cosmological hypotheses by searching the cutoffs in spectra of ultrahigh energy gamma-rays (UHEGR) from extragalactic sources is discussed.

Aharonian, F. A.↗

Interiors of the giant planets

This theoretical/observational project constrains interior structure of Jovian planets through observational data. Researchers continue to concentrate on Neptune in support of the 1989 Voyager encounter. Occultations of stars by Neptune are observed from the Tucson area and from Chile to obtain information about Neptune's atmosphere and to continue to search for Neptune arcs. Occultations by other solar system objects are also observed as part of collaborative efforts from time to time. New results on the structure of scintillations in the central flash occultation by Neptune on 20 August 1985 were derived. Analysis shows that scintillations are present throughout the lightcurve, both near the half-intensity points (at a pressure of 1 microbar) and near the central flash (at 0.4 mbar). Near the planetary limb, the scintillations are extended parallel to the limb; near the shadow center, they are extended parallel to the limb; near the shadow center, they are extended in a radial direction. Researchers collaborated with Ramesh Narayan to derive a theory relating the scintillations to density fluctuations in Neptune's atmosphere. The theory will ultimately enable researchers to test whether the scintillations are caused by internal gravity waves in Neptune's upper atmosphere.

Hubbard, W. B.↗

Comparative dynamics of the ionospheres of Venus and Mars at large solar zenith angles

Simple three-ion spectral models of the dynamics and ion chemistry in the upper ionospheres of Venus and Mars have been constructed by including two minor ions, H(+) and O2(+) for Venus and O(+) and CO2(+) for Mars, along with the major ion, O(+) for Venus and O2(+) for Mars. Horizontal flow velocities and ion densities have been calculated in each case and compared with available measured data. For Venus, the present calculations yield results in agreement with earlier finite-difference model studies and with experimental observations. Calculations for Mars are in agreement with the limited observational data obtained by the Viking landers.

Singhal, R. P.↗

Evaluation of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Simulated by AOMIP Models

We compare results from six AOMIP model simulations with estimates of sea ice thickness obtained from ICESat, moored and submarine-based upward looking sensors, airborne electromagnetic measurements and drill holes. Our goal is to find patterns of model performance to guide model improvement. The satellite data is pan-arctic from 2004-2008, ice-draft data is from moored instruments in Fram Strait, the Greenland Sea and the Beaufort Sea from 1992-2008 and from submarines from 1975-2000. The drill hole data are from the Laptev and East Siberian marginal seas from 1982-1986 and from coastal stations from 1998-2009. While there are important caveats when comparing modeled results with measurements from different platforms and time periods such as these, the models agree well with moored ULS data. In general, the AOMIP models underestimate the thickness of measured ice thicker than about 2 m and overestimate thickness of ice thinner than 2 m. The simulated results are poor over the fast ice and marginal seas of the Siberian shelves. Averaging over all observational data sets, the better correlations and smaller differences from observed thickness are from the ECCO2 and UW models.

Johnson, Mark↗

Tracking NO2 Pollution Changes Over Texas: Synthesis of In Situ and Satellite Observations

Nitrogen oxides (NO x ) are major air pollutants that play a crucial role in atmospheric chemistry. We compare Ozone Measuring Instrument's (OMI) NO 2 records with the in situ surface measurements from the Air Quality System of the US Environmental Protection Agency and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality network in the state of Texas with the goal of understanding the correspondence of satellite and in situ surface observations and identifying the potential synergies between the two observing systems. Our analysis of over 40 in situ daily surface site observations, mostly from urban areas, and OMI daily observed data suggests a correlation ( r ) ranging between 0.2 and 0.8. The correlation improves considerably ( r > 0.5) for monthly average data. Weekly variation of surface NO 2 with a Sunday minimum is well captured by OMI tropospheric NO 2 column observations with similar weekend reductions. NO 2 trend in Texas during 2005–2019 is characterized by significant reductions of 20%–36% in highly populated cities and urban centers. However, a significant (up to 80%) increase was observed in oil and gas producing regions of the Permian and Eagle Ford Basins over the same period. In March–April of 2020, like the other US and global cities, Texas experienced up to 60% reduction in NO 2 levels in major cities due to travel restrictions imposed at local and national levels to contain the spread of COVID-19. Though such reduction is temporary, these reductions were significantly larger than those achieved in the past 16 years of OMI record suggesting that technological advancement can curtail NO x emissions.

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2)↗

Delineating Facies Spatial Distribution by Integrating Ensemble Data Assimilation and Indicator Geostatistics with Level Set Transformation.

A new approach is developed to delineate the spatial distribution of discrete facies (geological units that have unique distributions of hydraulic, physical, and/or chemical properties) conditioned not only on direct data (measurements directly related to facies properties, e.g., grain size distribution obtained from borehole samples) but also on indirect data (observations indirectly related to facies distribution, e.g., hydraulic head and tracer concentration). Our method integrates for the first time ensemble data assimilation with traditional transition probability-based geostatistics. The concept of level set is introduced to build shape parameterization that allows transformation between discrete facies indicators and continuous random variables. The spatial structure of different facies is simulated by indicator models using conditioning points selected adaptively during the iterative process of data assimilation. To evaluate the new method, a two-dimensional semi-synthetic example is designed to estimate the spatial distribution and permeability of two distinct facies from transient head data induced by pumping tests. The example demonstrates that our new method adequately captures the spatial pattern of facies distribution by imposing spatial continuity through conditioning points. The new method also reproduces the overall response in hydraulic head field with better accuracy compared to data assimilation with no constraints on spatial continuity on facies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A fixed-lag Kalman smoother for retrospective data assimilation

Analyses incorporating future data, as well as current and past data, are termed retrospective analyses. In this paper, the fixed-lag Kalman smoother (FLKS) is proposed as a means of providing retrospective analysis capability in data assimilation. The FLKS is a direct generalization of the Kalman filter. It incorporates all data observed up to and including some fixed amount of time past each analysis time. A computationally efficient form of the FLKS is derived. A simple scalar examination of the FLKS demonstrates that incorporating future data improves analyses the most in the presence of dynamical instabilities, for accurate models and for accurate observations. An implementation of the FLKS for two-dimensional linear shallow-water model corroborates the scalar analysis. The numerical experiments also demonstrate the ability of the FLKS to propagate information upstream as well as downstream, thus improving analysis quality substantially in data voids.

Cohn, Stephen E.↗

Evaluation of Cirrus Cloud Simulations using ARM Data-Development of Case Study Data Set

Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are being increasingly used to develop parametric treatments of clouds and related processes for use in global climate models (GCMs). CRMs represent the integrated knowledge of the physical processes acting to determine cloud system lifecycle and are well matched to typical observational data in terms of physical parameters/measurables and scale-resolved physical processes. Thus, they are suitable for direct comparison to field observations for model validation and improvement. The goal of this project is to improve state-of-the-art CRMs used for studies of cirrus clouds and to establish a relative calibration with GCMs through comparisons among CRMs, single column model (SCM) versions of the GCMs, and observations. The objective is to compare and evaluate a variety of CRMs and SCMs, under the auspices of the GEWEX Cloud Systems Study (GCSS) Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems (WG2), using ARM data acquired at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. This poster will report on progress in developing a suitable WG2 case study data set based on the September 26, 1996 ARM IOP case - the Hurricane Nora outflow case. Progress is assessing cloud and other environmental conditions will be described. Results of preliminary simulations using a regional cloud system model (MM5) and a CRM will be discussed. Focal science questions for the model comparison are strongly based on results of the idealized GCSS WG2 cirrus cloud model comparison projects (Idealized Cirrus Cloud Model Comparison Project and Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project), which will also be briefly summarized.

Starr, David OC.↗

Recent observations of cosmic ray antiprotons and a critical assessment of the theories of their origin

The models proposed to explain the observed spectrum of cosmic ray antiprotons are reexamined in light of recent results from balloon-borne experiments. It is found that the prediction of modified closed galaxy model fits the observed data very well. Models in which secondary antiprotons are produced in the sources, could be made consistent with the data provided the secondary particles do not suffer considerable adiabatic deceleration. It has been shown that there cannot be any significant contribution to the observed antiprotons, from the evaporation of mini black holes or from the annihilation of dark matter like photinos. The role of extragalactic cosmic rays has been examined critically in the context of the recent data, and they are not the source of cosmic ray antiprotons. However, determination of the energy spectrum of antiprotons at least up to a few tens of GeV would be valuable to provide information on the possible existence of supersymmetric particles and on the modulation of extragalactic cosmic rays while entering the Galaxy.

Stephens, S. A.↗

Usage-Based Discovery of Earth Observations

Most providers of Earth Observation data enable search via dataset characteristics, (e.g., quantity being measured, instrument, location, and time). However, the Earth Science Information Partners Federation (ESIP) is attempting to improve dataset discovery by capturing information on how datasets are used. At a usage-based discovery hackfest at the July 2020 ESIP Summer Meeting, participants pooled their collective skills to implement a prototype based on the connections between datasets and data usage, which can reveal unanticipated patterns in dataset connectivity that are not apparent through traditional approaches. A survey of natural hazards websites, focusing on hydrology-related hazards such as floods and hydrology datasets such as rainfall, illustrated the difficulty of gleaning which dataset was actually used and how it was accessed. This difficulty highlights the need for greater transparency on dataset usage in website design. An application wireframe for a usage-based discovery database was conceptualized as a tool to help applications data specialists rapidly assemble a fit-for-purpose website as part of a disaster response, where customer feedback was integral to the manner in which the website would be developed and delivered. Capturing connections among datasets and instances of usage, either for research or applications, could help users identify datasets with a proven track record of utility or those that have been supplanted by more accurate and(or) precise representations. It may also help Earth Observation providers maximize returns on investments in data services. Social discovery, i.e, following discovery paths laid down by previous users of the data, could be a critical tool for improving the timeliness and applicability of dataset delivery at times and in circumstances where practitioners don’t have the capacity to evaluate the deluge of datasets that are returned by today’s search tools.

search↗

Properties of planetary fluids at high pressures and temperatures

Observational data obtained by the Voyager space probes to the giant planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune have provided valuable information, which is used to refine the picture of the nature of the interiors of these planets. Major results from the Voyager missions include observations of substantial magnetic fields and improved models of internal density distributions. The goal is to obtain equations of state and electrical conductivity data for planetary gases (H2 and He) and the ices (H2O, CH4, and NH3, and their mixtures), which are considered to be the major constituents of the giant planets. These data are needed to test theoretical data bases used to construct models of the chemical composition of planetary interiors, models which are consistent with observables such as mass, diameter, gravitational moments, rotation rate, and magnetic field. The 100 GPa (1 Mbar) pressures and several 1000 K temperatures in the giant planets can be achieved in the lab by the shock compression of liquid specimens. Results are briefly examined.

Nellis, W. J.↗

Development of a high-speed H-alpha camera system for the observation of rapid fluctuations in solar flares

A solid-state digital camera was developed for obtaining H alpha images of solar flares with 0.1 s time resolution. Beginning in the summer of 1988, this system will be operated in conjunction with SMM's hard X-ray burst spectrometer (HXRBS). Important electron time-of-flight effects that are crucial for determining the flare energy release processes should be detectable with these combined H alpha and hard X-ray observations. Charge-injection device (CID) cameras provide 128 x 128 pixel images simultaneously in the H alpha blue wing, line center, and red wing, or other wavelength of interest. The data recording system employs a microprocessor-controlled, electronic interface between each camera and a digital processor board that encodes the data into a serial bitstream for continuous recording by a standard video cassette recorder. Only a small fraction of the data will be permanently archived through utilization of a direct memory access interface onto a VAX-750 computer. In addition to correlations with hard X-ray data, observations from the high speed H alpha camera will also be correlated and optical and microwave data and data from future MAX 1991 campaigns. Whether the recorded optical flashes are simultaneous with X-ray peaks to within 0.1 s, are delayed by tenths of seconds or are even undetectable, the results will have implications on the validity of both thermal and nonthermal models of hard X-ray production.

Kiplinger, Alan L.↗

Impacts of benchmarking choices on inferred model skill of the Arctic–Boreal terrestrial carbon cycle

Abstract Land surface models require continuous validation against observations to improve and reduce simulation uncertainty. However, inferred model performance can be heavily influenced by subjective choices made in the selection and application of observational data products. A key area often misrepresented by models is the Arctic–Boreal region, which is a potential tipping point region in Earth’s climate system due to large permafrost carbon stocks that are vulnerable to release with climate warming. We use the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) framework to evaluate how the model skill of TRENDY-v9 models varies based on the choice of observational-based benchmark and how benchmarks are applied in model evaluation. This analysis uses global datasets integrated into ILAMB and new, regionally-specific observational products from the Arctic–Boreal Vulnerability Experiment. Our results cover the overall time period of 1979–2019 and show that model scores can vary substantially depending on the data product applied, with higher model scores indicating better model performance against observations. The lowest model scores occur when benchmarked against regional, compared to global, datasets. We also evaluate observed and modeled functional relationships between ecosystem respiration and air temperature and between gross primary production and precipitation. Here, we find that the magnitude and shape of the responses are strongly impacted by the choice of observational dataset and the approach used to construct the functional relationship benchmark. These results suggest that model evaluation studies could conclude a false sense of model skill if only using a single benchmark data product or if not applying regional data products when performing a regional model analysis. Collectively, our findings highlight the influence of benchmarking choices on model evaluation and point to the need for benchmarking guidelines when assessing model skill.

Poe, Jeralyn (ORCID:0000000318495278)↗

On the abundance of extreme voids II: a survey of void mass functions

The abundance of cosmic voids can be described by an analogue of halo mass functions for galaxy clusters. In this work, we explore a number of void mass functions: from those based on excursion-set theory to new mass functions obtained by modifying halo mass functions. We show how different void mass functions vary in their predictions for the largest void expected in an observational volume, and compare those predictions to observational data. Our extreme-value formalism is shown to be a new practical tool for testing void theories against simulation and observation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Very bright prompt and reverse shock emission of GRB L40512A

We report our observations of very bright prompt optical and reverse shock (RS) optical emission of GRB 140512A and analyze its multi-wavelength data observed with the Swift and Fermi missions. It is found that the joint optical–X-ray–gamma-ray spectrum with our first optical detection (R = 13.09 mag) at T{sub 0}+136 s during the second episode of the prompt gamma-rays can be fit by a single power law with an index of −1.32 ± 0.01. Our empirical fit to the afterglow light curves indicates that the observed bright optical afterglow with R = 13.00 mag at the peak time is consistent with predictions of the RS and forward shock (FS) emission of external shock models. A joint optical–X-ray afterglow spectrum is well fit with an absorbed single power law, with an index evolving with time from −1.86 ± 0.01 at the peak time to −1.57 ± 0.01 at a late epoch, which could be due to the evolution of the ratio of the RS to FS emission fluxes. We fit the light curves with standard external models, and derive the physical properties of the outflow. It is found that the ratio R{sub B}≡ϵ{sub B,r}/ϵ{sub B,f} is 8187, indicating a high magnetization degree in the RS region. Measuring the relative radiation efficiency with R{sub e}≡ϵ{sub e,r}/ϵ{sub e,f}, we have R {sub e} = 0.02, implying that the radiation efficiency of the RS is much lower than that in FS. We also show that the R {sub B} of GRBs 990123, 090102, and 130427A are similar to that of GRB 140512A and their apparent difference may be mainly attributed to the difference of the jet kinetic energy, initial Lorentz factor, and medium density among them.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗