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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,045 records · Page 58
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1996

Numerical Investigation of Slag Behavior for RSRM

It is known that the flow field of the redesigned solid rocket motor (RSRM) is very complicated due to the complex characteristics of turbulent multi-phase flow, chemical reaction, particle combustion, evaporation, breakup and agglomeration etc. It requires multi-phase calculations, chemical reaction simulation, and particle combustion, evaporation, and breakup models to obtain a better understanding of thermophysics for the RSRM design using numerical methods. Also, the slag buildup due to the molten particles is another factor affecting the performance of the RSRM. To achieve this goal, the volume of fluid (VOF) method is used to capture the free surface motion so as to simulate the accumulation of the molten particles (slag) of the RSRM. A finite rate chemistry model is used to simulate the chemical reaction effects. For multi-phase calculations, the Hermsen combustion model is used for the aluminum particle combustion analysis and the Taylor Analogy Breakup (TAB) model is used for the particle breakup analysis. An interphase mas-exchange model introduced by Spalding is used for the evaporation calculation. The particle trajectories are calculated using a one-step implicit method for several groups of particle sizes by which the drag forces and heat fluxes are then coupled with the gas phase equations. The preliminary results predicted a reasonable physical simulation of the particle effects using a simple two dimensional solid rocket motor configuration. It shows that the AL/AL2O3 particle sizes are reduced due to the combustion, evaporation, and breakup. The flow field is disturbed by the particles. Mach number distributions in the nozzle are deformed due to the effect of particle concentrations away from the center line.

Liaw, P.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Globally Stable Lyapunov Pointing and Rate Controller for the Magnetospheric MultiScale Mission (MMS)

The Magnetospheric MultiScale Mission (MMS) is scheduled to launch in late 2014. Its primary goal is to discover the fundamental plasma physics processes of reconnection in the Earth's magnetosphere. Each of the four MMS spacecraft is spin-stabilized at a nominal rate of 3 RPM. Traditional spin-stabilized spacecraft have used a number of separate modes to control nutation, spin rate, and precession. To reduce the number of modes and simplify operations, the Delta-H control mode is designed to accomplish nutation control, spin rate control, and precession control simultaneously. A nonlinear design technique, Lyapunov's method, is used to design the Delta-H control mode. A global spin rate controller selected as the baseline controller for MMS, proved to be insufficient due to an ambiguity in the attitude. Lyapunov's design method was used to solve this ambiguity, resulting in a controller that meets the design goals. Simulation results show the advantage of the pointing and rate controller for maneuvers larger than 90 deg and provide insight into the performance of this controller.

Shah, Neerav↗
NASA NTRS2018

Design of Distributed Mail-Slot Propulsion System on a Hybrid Wingbody Aircraft

This paper deals with designing a thrust distribution strategy when a Turboelectric Distributed Propulsion (TeDP) system of 16 embedded propulsors is installed on an aerodynamically optimized hybrid wing-body configuration. This HWB previously designed to satisfy conditions of trim, longitudinally static stability and specific cargo space is employed as the baseline configuration for the current study of seeking an optimal propulsion/power system. According to the nature of the entrance flow condition for each distributed propulsion passage in hybrid wing-body aircraft, the ingested boundary layer thickness differs and results in different propulsive reaction. An optimal distribution of thrust and power output is determined by how the system utilizes the propulsive characteristics of each passage. The design space and the number of design variables are selected and described accordingly. An actuator disk model is employed to model thrust generation and shaft power from the propulsor. To carry out the optimization of the propulsion/power system on a computationally expensive CFD model, a Kriging method in conjunction with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) is applied. Throughout the design process, the propulsion performances of the sampled propulsion/power system are analyzed and compared to those of a clean flow engine. The performance metrics includes mass flow rate, fan pressure ratio besides the thrust and shaft power. Minimization of total shaft power from the distributed engine is performed at multiple thrust levels. The benefit of boundary layer ingestion propulsion system is quantified via comparison of thrust equivalent, shaft power and mass flow equivalent clean flow engines with CFD based system design.

Hybrid Wingbody↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Loci/STREAM Sharp Interface Model Validation of Cryogenic Propellant Tank Self-Pressurization

This paper documents a model validation effort for the prediction of cryogenic propellant tank selfpressurization physics using the Loci/STREAM sharp interface CFD model developed at NASA MSFC. Cryogenic fluid management (CFM) applications for long duration spaceflight missions require accurate modeling of heat transfer and thermodynamics. Therefore, detailed validation of those physics is important to ensure simulation accuracy. In the past, the MSFC Propulsion Fluid Dynamics Branch has validated and used the Loci/STREAM Volume of Fluid (VOF) module extensively for propellant slosh applications, which are dominated by fluid motion. For cases where the interface gas/liquid interface is essentially static, the Loci/STREAM sharp interface was developed for more rapid and efficient CFM analysis. In the present study, Loci/STREAM sharp interface simulations were compared with the NASA K-site self-pressurization experiment of a flight weight, partially full, LH2 tank in normal gravity. This study investigated several parametric effects and made a number of important observations on the performance of the Loci/STREAM sharp interface method: - First, a homogeneous model was derived to verify the CFD model. The homogeneous model assumes both gas and liquid phases are uniform and are at saturation temperature. The predicted pressure rise rates at 3.5 W/m2 and 2.0 W/m2 with a 49% fill level are all lower than the experimental measurement. This is expected due to the observed temperature stratification near the gas-liquid interface during testing. - The k-w and k-e turbulence models predict comparable pressurization rates, which are much lower than the experiment measurement. On the other hand, the pressure values and pressurization rates from both models are almost the same as those of the homogeneous model. The current turbulence model is too diffusive and is not capable of capturing the thermal stratification in the liquid and ullage. - When using the laminar flow model, the pressurization rate is found to be very close to the experimental value when a quasi-steady flow field is allowed to develop by continuously venting the tank prior to pressurization as was done during testing. On the other hand, without initial venting, the rate is not constant. Additionally, the development time to reach a quasi-steady flow field differed from the experiment due to the lack of turbulent mixing away from the gas-liquid interface that is expected in reality. - Using the laminar flow model and appropriate initial conditioning, the pressurization rate is within 15% of the experimental value for 49% fill level at 3.5 W/m 2 and is within 18% for 2.0 W/m 2 heat loading. - Using the laminar flow model and appropriate initial conditioning, the pressurization rate is within 18% of the experimental value for a 29% fill level and within 15% for an 83% fill level.

H. Q. Yang↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning for Predicting Multipactor Susceptibility in Planar RF Structures

Multipactor discharge is a persistent challenge in high-power microwave (HPM) and accelerator systems, where secondary electron avalanches can cause heating, vacuum degradation, and failure. This work presents the first supervised machine learning (ML) framework for multipactor prediction, trained on high-fidelity 3D Particle-in-Cell (PIC) simulation data in planar geometries. The model maps operational, geometric, and material-dependent secondary electron yield (SEY) parameters to the time-averaged electron growth rate, enabling rapid reconstruction of susceptibility charts. Among the models evaluated, tree-based ensemble methods such as Random Forest and Extra Trees demonstrate superior generalization to unseen materials compared to neural networks such as multilayer perceptron (MLP). Performance metrics, including Intersection over Union (IoU), Structural Similarity Index Measure (SSIM), and Pearson correlation, show close agreement with simulation benchmarks. Principal Component Analysis attributes generalization limits to material feature-space disjointedness.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Beam-induced backgrounds measured in the ATLAS detector during local gas injection into the LHC beam vacuum

Inelastic beam-gas collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), within a few hundred metres of the ATLAS experiment, are known to give the dominant contribution to beam backgrounds. These are monitored by ATLAS with a dedicated Beam Conditions Monitor (BCM) and with the rate of fake jets in the calorimeters. These two methods are complementary since the BCM probes backgrounds just around the beam pipe while fake jets are observed at radii of up to several metres. In order to quantify the correlation between the residual gas density in the LHC beam vacuum and the experimental backgrounds recorded by ATLAS, several dedicated tests were performed during LHC Run 2. Local pressure bumps, with a gas density several orders of magnitude higher than during normal operation, were introduced at different locations. The changes of beam-related backgrounds, seen in ATLAS, are correlated with the local pressure variation. In addition the rates of beam-gas events are estimated from the pressure measurements and pressure bump profiles obtained from calculations. Using these rates, the efficiency of the ATLAS beam background monitors to detect beam-gas events is derived as a function of distance from the interaction point. These efficiencies and characteristic distributions of fake jets from the beam backgrounds are found to be in good agreement with results of beam-gas simulations performed with theFluka Monte Carlo programme.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Geometric Analysis Based Double Closed-loop Iterative Learning Control of Output PDF Shaping of Fiber Length Distribution in Refining Process

In order to improve the pulp quality and to reduce the energy consumption, the fiber length distribution (FLD) is generally employed as one of the important technological indexes in the refining process. Considering that the traditional mean and variance of fiber length are unable to adequately characterize the non-Gaussian distribution properties, this paper proposes a novel geometric analysis based double closed-loop iterative learning control (ILC) method for probability density function (PDF) shaping of output FLD in the refining process. Primarily, a RBF neural network (NN) with Gaussian-type is utilized to approximate the square root PDF in the inner loop, where the RBF basis function parameters (center and width) are tuned between any two adjacent batches by using an ILC law, and the subspace identification method can be applied to establish the state-space model of weight vector. Then, for the sake of accelerating the convergence rate of the closed-loop sysyem, a geometric analysis based ILC method is adopted in the outer loop. Lastly, both simulation and experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2001

Real-Time Adaptive Control Allocation Applied to a High Performance Aircraft

Abstract This paper presents the development and application of one approach to the control of aircraft with large numbers of control effectors. This approach, referred to as real-time adaptive control allocation, combines a nonlinear method for control allocation with actuator failure detection and isolation. The control allocator maps moment (or angular acceleration) commands into physical control effector commands as functions of individual control effectiveness and availability. The actuator failure detection and isolation algorithm is a model-based approach that uses models of the actuators to predict actuator behavior and an adaptive decision threshold to achieve acceptable false alarm/missed detection rates. This integrated approach provides control reconfiguration when an aircraft is subjected to actuator failure, thereby improving maneuverability and survivability of the degraded aircraft. This method is demonstrated on a next generation military aircraft Lockheed-Martin Innovative Control Effector) simulation that has been modified to include a novel nonlinear fluid flow control control effector based on passive porosity. Desktop and real-time piloted simulation results demonstrate the performance of this integrated adaptive control allocation approach.

Davidson, John B.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Conformal construction of polyaniline shell on cobalt oxide nanoflake core for enhanced Li ion storage

Highlights: • Construct non-axial polyaniline shell on Co{sub 3}O{sub 4} nanoflake core. • Non-axial core/shell arrays show enhanced Li storage properties. • Ultrathin PANI shell is favorable for fast ion and electron transfer. - Abstract: It is of great importance to controllably synthesize non-axial metal oxide/conducting polymers arrays for construction of high-performance electrochemical devices. In this work, we develop a facile electro-polymerization method to conformally coat interwoven polyaniline (PANI) shell on the preformed porous Co{sub 3}O{sub 4} nanoflakes forming non-axial Co{sub 3}O{sub 4}/PANI core/shell arrays. Uniform conductive PANI network and high porosity are realized in the non-axial core/shell arrays. As active materials for Li ion storage, the Co{sub 3}O{sub 4}/PANI core/shell arrays show superior high-rate performance including lower polarization, higher reactivity and better cycling life, as compared to the unmodified Co{sub 3}O{sub 4} nanoflake arrays. The capacity deterioration of the Co{sub 3}O{sub 4}/PANI arrays is restricted to a very lower level with a capacity of 871 mAh g{sup −1} at 0.25 A g{sup −1} after 100 cycles, better than the Co{sub 3}O{sub 4} counterpart (669 mAh g{sup −1} at 0.25 A g{sup −1}). This non-axial combination opens up a new door for developing advanced composite arrays for energy storage.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

A conservative, interface-resolved, compressible framework for the modeling and simulation of liquid/gas phase change

This paper presents a method for simulating evaporation in a compressible, interface-resolved framework appropriate for modeling problems of engineering interest. In order to achieve robustness and broad applicability, the method has been designed to discretely enforce consistent mass and thermal energy transport at the phase interface, to globally conserve mass, momentum, and energy, and to be capable of modeling compressible and incompressible systems. Verification is performed via the Sod-shock test, one-dimensional heat conduction, evaporation from a planar interface, and evaporation of three-dimensional droplets. Convergence with increasing mesh resolution is demonstrated in all tested configurations, and conservation is maintained near machine precision for a translating droplet. Conservation and accurate phase change rates are preserved at the low numerical resolutions commonly encountered in engineering calculations. Following verification, the method is validated by comparison to an empirical correlation for evaporating droplets in high temperature crossflow, and the presentation concludes with the simulation of an iso-octane spray at conditions representative of gasoline direct injection. In conclusion, successful verification, validation, and demonstrated practical utility suggest the method to be an accurate, efficient, and robust approach for the study of phase change in engineering systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Efficient method for the measurement of lifetime optical damage performance of thin film coatings from laser damage size analysis

Here, a laser damage test method based on damage size analysis (DSA) is described that simplifies the derivation of the lifetime optical damage threshold of film materials critical in the design of devices used in high-repetition-rate, high-power laser systems. The DSA method presented here is solely based on imaging to measure the damage site size produced from exposure to a known Gaussian-shaped beam with a fixed, systematically selected fluence well above the ablation threshold. The method locates the damage boundary produced from repeated exposures, using images with a high contrast, and maps it to the beam profile to extract a lifetime laser damage fluence threshold value. We validate the DSA approach using a few relevant transparent film material systems and by comparing it to the standard S /1 laser damage test method. The DSA method can be more efficient and accelerate materials development and validation necessary to support the design of high-power repetition-rated lasers and optoelectronic devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Working fluid selection for organic Rankine cycle power generation using hot produced supercritical CO 2 from a geothermal reservoir

Geothermal heat mining simulations using supercritical CO 2 (sCO 2 ) were performed in this research. Working fluid selection criteria for power generation using sCO 2 from a geothermal reservoir are then presented for subcritical, superheated and supercritical organic Rankine cycles (ORCs). Meanwhile, method of working fluid classification for ORC is proposed. To get the most feasible ORC design, this study introduces the concept of “turning point” for isentropic and dry working fluids, as well as minimum turbine inlet temperature for wet working fluids. A thermodynamic model was developed with capabilities to obtain the optimal working fluid mass flow rate, evaporation temperature, superheated temperature, and supercritical pressure, to evaluate the thermal performance of the three ORC approaches using hot produced sCO 2 . With this model, thirty potential working fluids with critical temperatures in the range from 50 to 225 °C were screened for utilizing hot produced sCO 2 considering physical properties, environmental and safety impacts, and thermodynamic performances. Finally, the thermodynamic results were compared for all possible working fluids.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Model-Based Extracted Water Desalination System for Carbon Sequestration

Over the last 1.5 years, GE Global Research and Pennsylvania State University defined a model-based, scalable, and multi-stage extracted water desalination system that yields clean water, concentrated brine, and, optionally, salt. The team explored saline brines that ranged across the expected range for extracted water for carbon sequestration reservoirs (40,000 up to 220,000 ppm total dissolved solids, TDS). In addition, the validated the system performance at pilot scale with field-sourced water using GE’s pre-pilot and lab facilities. This project encompassed four principal tasks, in addition to Project Management and Planning: 1) identify a deep saline formation carbon sequestration site and a partner that are suitable for supplying extracted water; 2) conduct a techno-economic assessment and down-selection of pre-treatment and desalination technologies to identify a cost-effective system for extracted water recovery; 3) validate the downselected processes at the lab/pre-pilot scale; and 4) define the scope of the pilot desalination project. Highlights from each task are described below: Deep saline formation characterization The deep saline formations associated with the five DOE NETL 1260 Phase 1 projects were characterized with respect to their mineralogy and formation water composition. Sources of high TDS feed water other than extracted water were explored for high TDS desalination applications, including unconventional oil and gas and seawater reverse osmosis concentrate. Technoeconomic analysis of desalination technologies Techno-economic evaluations of alternate brine concentration technologies, including humidification-dehumidification (HDH), membrane distillation (MD), forward osmosis (FO), turboexpander-freeze, solvent extraction and high pressure reverse osmosis (HPRO), were conducted. These technologies were evaluated against conventional falling film-mechanical vapor recompression (FF-MVR) as a baseline desalination process. Furthermore, a quality function deployment (QFD) method was used to compare alternate high TDS desalination technologies to FF-MVR. High pressure reverse osmosis was found to a be a promising alternative desalination technology. A deep-dive technoeconomic analysis of HPRO was performed, including Capex and Opex estimates, for seawater RO (SWRO). Additionally, two additional cases were explored: 1) a comparison of a SWRO plus HPRO system to the option of doubling the size of a standard seawater RO system to achieve the same total pure water recovery rate; and 2) a flue gas desulfurization wastewater treatment zero-liquid discharge (ZLD) application, where preconcentration with RO (SWRO or SWRO + HPRO) before evaporation and crystallization was compared to FF-MVR and crystallization technologies without RO preconcentration. Pre-pilot process validation Pre-pilot-scale tests were conducted using field production water to validate key process steps for extracted water pretreatment. Approximately 5,000 gallons of field produced water was processed through, microfiltration, ultrafiltration, and steam regenerable sorbent operations. Smaller quantities were processed through microclarification. In addition, analytical methods (purge-and-trap gas chromatography and Hach TOC analytical methods) were validated. Lab-scale HPRO elements were constructed and tested at high pressures, to identify and mitigate technical risks of the technology. Lastly, improvements in RO membrane materials were identified as the necessary next step to achieve further improvement in element performance at high pressure. Scope of Field Pilot A field pilot for extracted water pretreatment was designed.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accelerating transients with NekRS: GPU overlapping domain implementation and multi-rate timestepping

The simulation of nuclear transients using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) presents significant computational challenges due to the inherent complexity and the wide separation in temporal scales between various flow physical phenomena. These disparities lead to high computational costs, often making the simulation of transients impractical without advanced techniques. Consequently, multiple research initiatives are being pursued by the NEAMS thermal-hydraulic area, some driven by academic institutions and some by national laboratories. Overall, they are exploring novel methods to make transient simulations more feasible and efficient. This report delves into recent advancements within the CFD code NekRS, specifically those achieved in Fiscal Year 2024 under the CONNECT effort, aimed at improving the performance and feasibility of transient simulations. The first major advancement involves the porting of NekRS to Aurora, one of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) most powerful supercomputers. Additionally, the report discusses the implementation of an overlapping domain capability within NekRS. This novel GPU-accelerated capability allows different spatial regions of the domain to be solved independently, enhancing the code’s efficiency, particularly when running large-scale simulations in complex domains. The scalability of this approach is demonstrated, highlighting its potential to transform how transients are approached in CFD simulations. Lastly, the report focuses on how this overlapping domain capability specifically accelerates transient simulations through multi-rate timestepping. By decoupling different regions and facilitating faster computations, this method offers a promising pathway to making nuclear transient simulations more computationally feasible, addressing one of the critical bottlenecks in the field. Together, these advancements represent a significant leap forward in transient simulation technology, bringing closer the possibility of handling highly complex nuclear scenarios with greater efficiency and accuracy.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Carbon-Binder Weight Loading Optimization for Improved Lithium-Ion Battery Rate Capability

Battery performance is strongly correlated with electrode microstructure and weight loading of the electrode components. Among them are the carbon-black and binder additives that enhance effective conductivity and provide mechanical integrity. However, these both reduce effective ionic transport in the electrolyte phase and reduce energy density. Therefore, an optimal additive loading is required to maximize performance, especially for fast charging where ionic transport is essential. Such optimization analysis is however challenging due to the nanoscale imaging limitations that prevent characterizing this additive phase and thus quantifying its impact on performance. Herein, an additive-phase generation algorithm has been developed to remedy this limitation and identify percolation threshold used to define a minimal additive loading. Improved ionic transport coefficients from reducing additive loading has been then quantified through homogenization calculation, macroscale model fitting, and experimental symmetric cell measurement, with good agreement between the methods. Rate capability test demonstrates capacity improvement at fast charge at the beginning of life, from 37% to 55%, respectively for high and low additive loading during 6C CC charging, in agreement with macroscale model, and attributed to a combination of lower cathode impedance, reduced electrode tortuosity and cathode thickness.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2016

High-order shock-fitted detonation propagation in high explosives

In this paper, a highly accurate numerical shock and material interface fitting scheme composed of fifth-order spatial and third- or fifth-order temporal discretizations is applied to the two-dimensional reactive Euler equations in both slab and axisymmetric geometries. High rates of convergence are not typically possible with shock-capturing methods as the Taylor series analysis breaks down in the vicinity of discontinuities. Furthermore, for typical high explosive (HE) simulations, the effects of material interfaces at the charge boundary can also cause significant computational errors. Fitting a computational boundary to both the shock front and material interface (i.e. streamline) alleviates the computational errors associated with captured shocks and thus opens up the possibility of high rates of convergence for multi-dimensional shock and detonation flows. Several verification tests, including a Sedov blast wave, a Zel'dovich–von Neumann–Döring (ZND) detonation wave, and Taylor–Maccoll supersonic flow over a cone, are utilized to demonstrate high rates of convergence to nontrivial shock and reaction flows. Comparisons to previously published shock-capturing multi-dimensional detonations in a polytropic fluid with a constant adiabatic exponent (PF-CAE) are made, demonstrating significantly lower computational error for the present shock and material interface fitting method. For an error on the order of 10 m / s , which is similar to that observed in experiments, shock-fitting offers a computational savings on the order of 1000. In addition, the behavior of the detonation phase speed is examined for several slab widths to evaluate the detonation performance of PBX 9501 while utilizing the Wescott–Stewart–Davis (WSD) model, which is commonly used in HE modeling. It is found that the thickness effect curve resulting from this equation of state and reaction model using published values is dramatically more steep than observed in recent experiments. Utilizing the present fitting strategy, in conjunction with a nonlinear optimizer, a new set of reaction rate parameters improves the correlation of the model to experimental results. In conclusion, this new model is tested against two dimensional slabs as a validation test.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2018

The Variable Saturation Hydraulic Conductivity Method for Improving Soil Water Content Simulation in EPIC and APEX Models

Core Ideas We propose VSHC for calculating soil water percolation in continuous models. VSHC relates permeability to daily hydraulic properties to estimate hydraulic conductivity. VSHC performed well at field scale and improved estimates of peak streamflows. Soil water percolation is a key process in the life cycle of water in fields, watersheds, and river basins. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) and the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) are continuous models developed for evaluating the environmental effects of agricultural management. Traditionally, these models have simulated soil water percolation processes using a tipping‐bucket approach, with the rate of flow limited by the saturated hydraulic conductivity. This simple approach often leads to inaccuracy in simulating elevated soil water conditions where soil water content (SWC) levels may remain above field capacity under prolonged wet weather periods or limited drainage. To overcome this deficiency, a new submodel, the variable saturation hydraulic conductivity (VSHC) method, was developed for simulating soil water percolation processes using a nonlinear equation to estimate the effective hydraulic conductivity as a function of the SWC and soil properties. The VSHC method was evaluated at three sites in the United States and two sites in Europe. In addition, a numerical solution of the Richards equation was used as a benchmark for SWC comparison. Results show that the VSHC method substantially improves the accuracy of the SWC simulation in long‐term simulations, particularly during wet periods. At the watershed scale, results on the Riesel Y2 watershed indicate that the VSHC method enhances model performance in the high‐flow regime of channel peak flows because of the improved estimation of SWC, which implies that the improved SWC simulation at the field scale is beneficial to hydrologic modeling at the watershed scale.

Doro, Luca↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Four Problematic Methods in Reliability Analysis

Some basic methods used in reliability analysis are problematic because they produce incorrect and overoptimistic predictions. Initially gratifying forecasts are often invalidated by testing and operational experience. The problematic methods in reliability analysis include estimating the system failure rate as the sum of component failure rates, assuming that reliability growth continues indefinitely during testing, overestimating the benefits of redundancy, and using the fault tolerance count instead of a detailed reliability analysis. Reliability analysis can produce more optimism than accuracy. This bug may now be a feature. The optimistic bias inevitable in project planning should be corrected by realistic reliability analysis that reflects relevant experience. That the repeated poor performance of reliability analysis is found to be surprising suggests willful blindness. Rigorous methods and impartial critical review are necessary to improve reliability analysis.

Reliability analysis↗