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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

The Value of CCS under Current Policy Scenarios: NDCs and Beyond

This paper describes preliminary results of analysis using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to evaluate the potential role of CCS in addressing emissions reduction targets. Scenarios are modelled using the Paris-Increased Ambition (PIA) case developed by Fawcett et al. (2015), and a more aggressive Paris Two-Degree Ambition (P2A) case. Both cases are based upon nationally determined contributions (NDCs) agreed to at the UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP-21) in December 2015, coupled with additional mitigation effort beyond the 2030 Paris timeframe, through the end of the century. Analysis of CCS deployment and abatement costs under both policy scenarios suggests that, as modelled, having CCS in the technological portfolio could reduce the global cost of addressing emissions reduction targets specified under the policy scenario by trillions of dollars, primarily by enabling a smoother and lower-cost transition to next-generation technologies. Through the end of the century, total global abatement costs associated with the PIA case – with five percent annual reduction in emission intensity and reaching 2.2 degrees by 2100 – are reduced by $15 trillion USD in the scenario where CCS is available to deploy by 2025 and remains available through 2100, reflecting a 47 percent savings in the cost of climate change abatement. Under the more ambitious P2A case, with 8 percent annual reduction in emission intensity and reaching 1.9 degrees by 2100, the availability of CCS reduces global abatement costs by $22 trillion USD through the end of the century, again nearly halving the costs of addressing the policy, relative to achieving the same target using an energy portfolio that does not include CCS. PIA and P2A scenarios with CCS result in 1,250 and 1,580 GtCO2 of global geologic storage by the end of the century, respectively.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Staged, Pressurized Oxy-Combustion Technology: Status and Application to Boiler Retrofits to Yield Carbon-Negative Power via Biomass

Recognizing the benefits of pressurization and fuel staging on the efficiency of oxy-combustion, the staged, pressurized oxy-combustion (SPOC) process was introduced in 2012. The combination of fuel staging and pressurized oxy-combustion results in a more compact plant, a higher plant efficiency and reduced costs for pollutant and greenhouse gas removal compared with plants equipped with conventional carbon capture. This approach to power generation enables a modular boiler design and optimizes the plant for flexible operation, which is essential to meet the demands of the modern grid when it contains intermittent power sources. Originally designed to burn coal, the SPOC process is well-suited for biomass because the combustion of biomass leads to a high moisture content in the flue gas and the SPOC process is able to recover the latent heat of this moisture, enhancing system performance over that of traditional biomass combustion at atmospheric pressure. The present work is focused on evaluating the potential for utilizing the SPOC process in retrofit applications wherein the boilers of an existing plant are replaced with the SPOC process, and woody biomass is used as the fuel to yield carbon-negative power. Two applications are considered: power generation and cogeneration (heat and power). Modeling these systems in Aspen Plus demonstrates that the SPOC process surpasses the performance of baseline plants with post-combustion capture (PCC) for both power generation and cogeneration. Specifically, compared to a PCC equipped plant, the SPOC power plant has 33% higher efficiency, and the SPOC cogeneration plant reaches 42% higher net energy. Experimentally, the existing SPOC facility was fired for the first time with 100% biomass and after minor improvements were made to the feeding system, the facility demonstrated excellent performance during startup, steady-state operation and turndown.

Carbon capture and storage↗
DOE OSTI2019

Improving estimates of transmission capital costs for utility-scale wind and solar projects to inform renewable energy policy

Estimating the overall costs of transmission needed to integrate variable renewable energy (VRE) onto the grid is challenging. An improved understanding of these transmission costs would support electricity system planning as VRE penetrations increase. This paper brackets VRE transmission capital costs using multiple approaches based on interconnection studies, actual transmission projects, capacity-expansion simulation models, and aggregated U.S. VRE-related transmission expenditures. Each approach possesses advantages and drawbacks, and combining the approaches lends confidence to the results. The resulting range of average levelized VRE transmission costs is 1– 10 dollars/MWh, which is generally lower than earlier estimates in the literature. These transmission capital costs can increase the direct plant-level levelized cost of VRE by 3%–33%, based on levelized costs of energy of 29– 56 dollars/MWh for utility-scale wind and 36–46 dollars/MWh for utility-scale solar. As VRE deployment continues to expand, policy makers can use this information to (1) assess the benefits of transmission avoidance and deferral when comparing distributed energy resources versus utility-scale projects, (2) evaluate the potential costs of large-scale public transmission investments, and (3) better analyze system-level costs of utility-scale VRE technologies. Future research can expand on the framework presented here by providing a review of operation and maintenance costs for transmission systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Geochemical signatures in fin rays provide a nonlethal method to distinguish the natal rearing streams of endangered juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in the Wenatchee River, Washington

Rebuilding fish populations that have undergone a major decline is a challenging task that can be made more complicated when estimates of abundance obtained from physical tags are biased or imprecise. Abundance estimates based on natural tags where each fish in the population is marked can help address these problems, but generally requires that the samples be obtained in a nonlethal manner. We evaluated the potential of using geochemical signatures in fin rays as a nonlethal method to determine the natal tributaries of endangered juvenile spring Chinook Salmon in the Wenatchee River, Washington. Archived samples of anal fin clips collected from yearling smolt in 2009, 2010 and 2011 were analyzed for Ba/Ca, Mn/Ba, Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, Zn/Ca and 87Sr/86Sr by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Water samples collected from these same streams in 2012 were also quantified for geochemical composition. Fin ray and water Ba/Ca, Sr/Ca, and 87Sr/86Sr were highly correlated despite the samples having been collected in different years. Fin ray Ba/Ca, Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, Zn/Ca and 87Sr/86Sr ratios differed significantly among the natal streams, but also among years within streams. A linear discriminant model that included Ba/Ca, Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, and 87Sr/86Sr correctly classified 95% of the salmon to their natal stream. Our results suggest that fin ray geochemistry may provide an effective, nonlethal method to identify mixtures of Wenatchee River spring Chinook Salmon for recovery efforts when these involve the capture of juvenile fish to estimate population abundance.

Chinook salmon↗
DOE OSTI2018

Evaluation of lipid extractability after flash hydrolysis of algae

Microalgae is identified as a promising feedstock for producing renewable liquid transportation fuels; however, lipids extraction from microalgae for downstream processing to biofuels is one of the important challenges for algal based biorefineries. This work aims at evaluating the potential of applying flash hydrolysis (FH) as a chemical-free technique to increase the lipids extractability of algal biomass as well as its integration with the hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of microalgae to enhance the biocrude yields and characteristics for fuel production. To this aim, the FH process was performed on three different algal species (Scenedesmus sp., Nannochloropsis sp., and Chlorella vulgaris) at 280 degrees C and 10 s of residence time. Following FH, in addition to the nutrients rich hydrolysate, approximately, 40 wt% of solids containing almost all (>90 wt%) the lipids termed as biofuels intermediates (BI), were recovered. Kinetics study on lipids extractability from the BI and their lipid profile analyses were conducted for each algal species. The results showed that the FH process had significantly enhanced the lipids extractability. For all three algae species, lipid yields from BI were higher than that of the raw algae. Lipid yields of Chlorella vulgaris in the first 15 min were more than five times higher (52.3 +/- 0.8 vs. 10.7 +/- 0.9 wt%) than that of raw algae during n-hexane based solvent extraction. The kinetics of lipids extractability followed a zero-order reaction rate for all wet raw microalgae and the BI of Scenedesmus sp., while the BI recovered from the other two algal species were determined as a second-order reaction. Comparison of fatty acids profiles indicated the contribution of the FH process in saturating fatty acids. Subsequent to lipids extraction, a conventional hydrothermal liquefaction was performed at 350 degrees C and 1 h to compare the biocrude yields from raw versus BI of Chlorella vulgaris microalgae. The results showed that the biocrude yields from the BI and its quality was significantly enhanced post FH than that of raw algae. The FH process was proven to be a viable option for lipid extraction by increasing the extent of recovery and decreasing the extraction time. Its integration with HTL notably impact the biocrude yields and characteristics for fuel production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geologic hydrogen as an emerging fuel: experimental insights, thermodynamics, kinetics, and reactive transport modeling

Geologic hydrogen (GeoH 2 ) is emerging as a viable clean energy source. It is largely produced through serpentinization, a geological process in which ultramafic rocks react with water under suitable temperature and pressure. Here, this review synthesizes the current understanding of H 2 generation by serpentinization, with an emphasis on reaction mechanisms, kinetics, and thermodynamics, as well as on modeling flow and transport of reacting fluids in geological formations. We describe the role of mineral assemblages, such as olivine and pyroxene, fluid-rock interactions, and catalytic surfaces, in influencing GeoH 2 yield and reaction rates. By integrating models of reaction kinetics, subsurface reactive flow and transport, and the serpentinization process, and by accounting for the thermodynamic state of the system, this review aims to guide future GeoH 2 research and to evaluate the potential of natural hydrogen as a sustainable clean energy source.

Moradi, Rasoul [Univ. of Southern California, Los ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Zeolite-templated carbons as effective sorbents to remove methylsiloxanes and derivatives: A computational screening

Though widely used in our daily lives, volatile methylsiloxanes and derivatives are emerging contaminants and becoming a high-priority environment and public health concern. Developing effective sorbent materials can remove siloxanes in a cost-effective manner. Herein, by means of Grand Canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) simulations, we evaluated the potentials of the recently proposed 68 stable zeolite-templated carbons (ZTCs) for the removal of four linear methylsiloxanes and derivatives as well as two cyclic methylsiloxanes by the calculated average loading and average adsorption energy values. Four ZTCs, namely ISV, FAU1, FAU3, and H8326836, were identified with the top 50% adsorption performance toward all the six targeted contaminants, which outperform activated carbons. Further first principles computations revealed that steric hindrance, electrostatic interactions (further enhanced by charge transfer), and CH-π interactions account for the outstanding adsorption performance of these ZTCs. This work provides a quick procedure to computationally screen promising ZTCs for siloxane removal, and help guide future experimental and theoretical investigations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2018

Corrigendum to "Environmentally friendly, rheoreversible, hydraulic fracturing fluids for enhanced geothermal systems" [Geothermics 58 (2015) 22–31]

Cost-effective creation of high-permeability reservoirs inside deep crystalline bedrock is the primary challenge for the feasibility of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Current reservoir stimulation entails adverse environmental impacts and substantial economic costs due to the utilization of large volumes of water “doped” with chemicals including rheology modifiers, scale and corrosion inhibitors, biocides, friction reducers among others where, typically, little or no information of composition and toxicity is disclosed. An environmentally benign, CO2-activated, rheoreversible fracturing fluid has recently been developed that significantly enhances rock permeability at effective stress significantly lower than current technology. We evaluate the potential of this novel fracturing fluid for application on geothermal sites under different chemical and geomechanical conditions, by performing laboratory-scale fracturing experiments with different rock sources under different confining pressures, temperatures, and pH environments. The results demonstrate that CO2-reactive aqueous solutions of environmentally amenable Polyallylamine (PAA) represent a highly versatile fracturing fluid technology. This fracturing fluid creates/propagates fracture networks through highly impermeable crystalline rock at significantly lower effective stress as compared to control experiments where no PAA was present, and permeability enhancement was significantly increased for PAA compared to conventional hydraulic fracturing controls. This was evident in all experiments, including variable rock source/type, operation pressure and temperature (over the entire range for EGS applications), as well as over a wide range of formation-water pH values. This versatile novel fracturing fluid technology represents a great alternative to industrially available fracturing fluids for cost-effective and competitive geothermal energy production.

Shao, Hongbo↗
DOE OSTI2016

Reirradiation of Recurrent and Second Primary Head and Neck Cancer With Proton Therapy

Purpose: To report the clinical outcomes of head and neck reirradiation with proton therapy. Methods and Materials: From 2004 to 2014, 61 patients received curative-intent proton reirradiation, primarily for disease involving skull base structures, at a median of 23 months from the most recent previous course of radiation. Most had squamous cell (52.5%) or adenoid cystic (16.4%) carcinoma. Salvage surgery before reirradiation was undertaken in 47.5%. Gross residual disease was present in 70.5%. For patients with microscopic residual disease, the median dose of reirradiation was 66 Gy (relative biological effectiveness), and for gross disease was 70.2 Gy (relative biological effectiveness). Concurrent chemotherapy was given in 27.9%. Results: The median follow-up time was 15.2 months and was 28.7 months for patients remaining alive. The 2-year overall survival estimate was 32.7%, and the median overall survival was 16.5 months. The 2-year cumulative incidence of local failure with death as a competing risk was 19.7%; regional nodal failure, 3.3%; and distant metastases, 38.3%. On multivariable analysis, Karnofsky performance status ≤70%, the presence of a gastrostomy tube before reirradiation, and an increasing number of previous courses of radiation therapy were associated with a greater hazard ratio for death. A cutaneous primary tumor, gross residual disease, increasing gross tumor volume, and a lower radiation dose were associated with a greater hazard ratio for local failure. Grade ≥3 toxicities were seen in 14.7% acutely and 24.6% in the late setting, including 3 treatment-related deaths. Conclusions: Reirradiation with proton therapy, with or without chemotherapy, provided reasonable locoregional disease control, toxicity profiles, and survival outcomes for an advanced-stage and heavily pretreated population. Additional data are needed to identify which patients are most likely to benefit from aggressive efforts to achieve local disease control and to evaluate the potential benefit of proton therapy relative to other modalities of reirradiation.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Analysis of switchgrass-derived bio-oil and associated aqueous phase generated in a semi-pilot scale auger pyrolyzer

To efficiently utilize water-soluble compounds in bio-oil and evaluate the potential effects of these compounds on processes such as microbial electrolysis, our study investigated the physico-chemical properties of bio-oil and the associated aqueous phase generated from switchgrass using a semi-pilot scale auger pyrolyzer. Combining separation and detection strategies with organic solvent extraction, an array of analytical instruments and methods were used to identify and quantify the chemical constituents. Separation of an aqueous phase from crude bio-oil was achieved by adding water (water: crude bio-oil at 4:1 in weight), which resulted in a partition of 61 wt.% of the organic compounds into a bio-oil aqueous phase (BOAP). GC/MS analysis for BOAP identified over 40 compounds of which 16 were quantified. Acetic acid, propionic acid, and levoglucosan are the major components in BOAP. In addition, a significant portion of chemicals that have the potential to be upgraded to hydrocarbon fuels were extracted to BOAP (77 wt.% of the alcohols, 61 wt.% of the furans, and 52 wt.% of the phenolic compounds in crude bio-oil). Valorization of the BOAP may require conversion methods capable of accommodating a very broad substrate specificity. Ultimately, a better separation strategy is needed to selectively remove the acidic and polar components from crude bio-oil to improve economic feasibility of biorefinery operations.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Fundamental catalytic challenges to design improved biomass conversion technologies

During the past ten years, there has been significant interest and investment in the study of catalytic conversion of biomass-derived feedstocks into renewable fuels and chemicals. In the United States, an estimated $25 billion has been spent by venture capitalists, industry, and government agencies during this period of time to commercialize “renewable technologies” including solar energy, wind power, batteries, and biofuels (e.g., cellulosic ethanol). Four societal factors are driving these investments including: (1) the increased price of crude oil; (2) concerns about global warming; (3) the desire to improve rural economies where biomass is produced, and; (4) national goals to become energy self-sufficient. Furthermore, underlying these efforts is the realization that lignocellulosic biomass is the only realistic, near-term and non-food-competitive source of renewable organic carbon. To this end, legislative efforts, such as the US Renewable Fuel Standards, have been implemented to create subsidies, tax credits, mandates, and loan guarantees to help bring renewable fuel technologies to market. However, the representative body of industrial efforts to this end has faced significant challenges, with several startup companies having commercialized biomass conversion technologies but having struggled to reach commercial scale; in fact, many of these companies have filed for bankruptcy. This situation is likely due to the challenges associated with scaling up unproven pioneer processes, as well as neophyte investors not understanding the decade-long time frames and the sheer amount of funding that is often required to bring chemical process technologies to market. Nevertheless, several emerging catalytic technologies have either entered the market place, or are currently demonstrating their technologies in fully integrated pilot plants. Commercial and near commercial technologies for second generation biomass conversion technologies to-date include, among others: biomass-derived jet and diesel fuel from both waste vegetable oils and ethanol; small scale production of renewable jet and diesel from landfill gases via Fischer-Tropsch synthesis; catalytic conversion of carbohydrates into gasoline and aromatics; hydropyrolysis of biomass into gasoline and diesel, and; catalytic conversion of wood into aromatics. To be successful, biomass conversion technologies must ultimately be able to compete economically with petroleum technologies, which are already operating at large commercial scales and have been practiced for decades. To this end, various factors must be considered when evaluating the potential for new processes to compete with incumbent technologies; factors such as regional variations in feedstock quality and availability, government policy, subsidies and tax rates, and the proprietary positions of the ancillary technologies that might support the process. By any measure, however, a critical metric of the economic potential of a process is its efficiency with respect to the yield of products from raw materials, and this metric of performance is directly related to atom efficiency of the underlying chemical reactions. Therefore, while promising biomass conversion technologies continue to demonstrate progress towards commercialization, there remains an important need for the catalysis community to aid in this effort by: (1) designing more active, selective and stable catalysts, and (2) elucidating a more detailed understanding of the catalytic chemistries underlying these processes. Indeed, the study of catalytic biomass conversion has grown tremendously during the past decade; and new or emerging technologies that are in the laboratory stage have allowed for biomass to be converted into a wider variety of commodity chemicals and the full range of liquid fuels that are produced from petroleum. The objective of this perspective is to highlight some of the ongoing, fundamental challenges with respect to the catalytic conversion of biomass into renewable products, and to provide insight as to how the catalysis community can overcome several of these challenges. It is our belief that, as an international academic community of catalysis researchers, we can (and must) work together to address these challenges, and to drive progress toward the production of next-generation renewable chemicals and fuels from biomass.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of Fe-doped biochar in Cr(VI) removal from washing wastewater and residual Cr(VI) immobilization in contaminated soil

High-content Cr(VI)-contaminated soils are challenging to remediate using a single remediation technique. This study combined soil washing and immobilization to remediate high-content (3440 mg kg -1 ) Cr(VI)-contaminated soil, which investigated the effects of operating time, temperature, and liquid-solid ratio (LSR) on the Cr(VI) removal efficiency of soil washing and evaluated the potential of Fe-doped biochar (FeBC) in soluble Cr(VI) removal from the washing wastewater and residual Cr(VI) immobilization in the washed soil. The Cr(VI) removal efficiency of soil washing increased with the operating time, temperature, and LSR, but still cannot remove Cr(VI) to achieve the safety content (<100 mg kg -1 ). FeBC showed satisfactory potential in both Cr(VI) removal and immobilization from wastewater and soil, in which the main mechanisms involve ion exchange, redox, and coprecipitation. These results demonstrate applying soil washing & immobilization to remediate high-content Cr(VI)-contaminated soil is a promising alternative method.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Uranium mobility across annual growth rings in three deciduous tree species

Black walnut (Juglans nigra), slippery elm (Ulmus rubra), and white ash (Fraxinus americana) trees were evaluated as potential archives of past uranium (U) contamination. Like other metals, U mobility in annual growth rings of trees is potentially dependent on the tree species. Uranium concentrations and isotopic compositions (masses 234, 235, 236, and 238) were analyzed by thermal ionization mass spectrometry to test the efficacy of using tree rings to retroactively monitor U pollution from the FFMPC, a U purification facility operating from 1951 to 1989. This study found non-natural U (depleted U and detectable 236U) in growth rings of all three tree species that pre-dated the start of operations at FFMPC and compositional trends that did not correspond with known contamination events. Therefore, the annual growth rings of these tree species cannot be used to reliably monitor the chronology of U contamination.

black walnut↗
DOE OSTI2020

Efficient SF 6 /N 2 separation at high pressures using a zirconium-based mesoporous metal–organic framework

Adsorptive separation of SF 6 /N 2 mixtures is an important issue since SF 6 is a significant greenhouse gas. Although separation performances should be evaluated under high pressure conditions to find an efficient adsorbent candidate for pressure swing adsorption (PSA) processes, no studies on metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) have focused on SF 6 /N 2 separation at high pressures above 1 bar. In this study, we evaluated the potential of three hydrothermally stable adsorbents, including two MOFs (UiO-66 and UiO-67) and zeolite-13X, for SF 6 /N 2 separation under normal PSA operation pressures (~10 bar). Interestingly, UiO-67 with a high surface area and large pore size exhibited very high SF6/N2 selectivity (30~37) at 10 bar as well as a significantly large SF6 working capacity (5.94 mmol g-1) between 10 bar and 1 bar. Moreover, UiO-67 showed facile regeneration at the ambient temperature as well as good cyclic adsorption and desorption behavior during 20 cycles. These results show that UiO-67 is a potential adsorbent for adsorptive SF 6 /N 2 separation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Irradiation effects on Al 0.3 CoCrFeNi and CoCrMnFeNi high-entropy alloys, and 316H stainless steel at 500 °C

To evaluate the potential of high entropy alloys (HEAs) for nuclear applications, two HEAs, Al 0.3 CoCrFeNi and CoCrFeMnNi, and a conventional Type 316H stainless steel (SS) were irradiated with 1 MeV krypton ions at 500 degrees C up to 1 dpa, and examined in-situ with a transmission electron microscope (TEM). After irradiation, a high density of ordered L1 2 nanoparticles was observed in Al 0.3 CoCrFeNi. In contrast, no phase transformation was observed in CoCrFeMnNi and 316H SS. In the thin foil regions of TEM samples, stacking-fault tetrahedra were observed in the HEAs. In the thick foil regions, interstitial dislocation loops were observed for all alloys, and the areal loop density increased linearly with foil thickness. The Al 0.3 CoCrFeNi had the largest loop size (the lowest density), followed by the CoCrFeMnNi and then the 316H SS. The higher loop nucleation rate in the 316H SS was attributed to carbon content. Finally, the degree of irradiation hardening was slightly lower for the HEAs than for the 316H SS, which is a promising sign for the nuclear application of HEAs at high temperatures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bundling measures for food systems transformation: a global, multimodel assessment

Background Current food systems leave one in ten individuals at risk of hunger while driving unsustainable environmental impacts. Inaction risks further exacerbating negative impacts on both human and planetary health. These challenges emerge from complex system interactions, requiring approaches that engage with this complexity and consider how transformation measures interact across food systems. We aimed to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of the impacts of key food systems transformation measures both individually and in a bundle using an ensemble of global economic models. Methods In this global multimodel assessment, we applied an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art global economic models to evaluate the potential of four key measures in transforming food systems: increasing agricultural productivity, halving food loss and waste, shifting towards healthier diets, and economy-wide climate mitigation policies aligned with limiting warming to 1·5°C. The scenarios used a middle-of-the-road shared socioeconomic pathway for population and gross domestic product growth, climate impact data from Jägermeyr and colleagues, Thornton and colleagues, and Nelson and colleagues, and dietary targets based on the EAT–Lancet healthy reference diet, with model simulations conducted from 2020 to 2050. We then assessed the effect of these measures in isolation and in combination in a bundled scenario. To further understand the interactions between these measures, we conducted a decomposition analysis that distinguishes between the individual effects of a measure (effect when implemented alone), total effects (its contribution within the bundle), and interaction effects (the difference between total and individual effects). This approach aimed to show complementarities and trade-offs that emerge when multiple measures are implemented simultaneously. Findings Our analysis showed that individual measures in isolation are insufficient to achieve high-level environmental objectives and might generate unintended consequences. In contrast, bundling measures produces co-benefits: avoiding 50% of projected agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and almost 20% of anticipated land conversion, while moderating food price increases associated with ambitious climate change mitigation policies. Our decomposition analysis further shows that measures can have varying effects across different dimensions. Although dietary shifts and climate mitigation policies are the largest drivers of environmental benefits (each contributing to a median decline of >10 percentage points in non-CO 2 emissions and 5 percentage points in agricultural land use globally), productivity improvements and reducing food loss and waste play essential roles in moderating price increases (each contributing to a median decline of >5 percentage points in average prices). Interpretation This study highlights the importance of implementing coordinated approaches to food system transformation and climate change mitigation rather than relying on isolated interventions. Comprehensive transformation requires understanding how supply-side and demand-side changes can interact with climate mitigation policies, enabling policy makers to design intervention packages that maximise benefits while minimising trade-offs across environmental, economic, and social dimensions.

Sundiang, Marina [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (Unite↗