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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Probability of Loss of Assured Safety in Systems with Multiple Time-Dependent Failure Modes: Incorporation of Delayed Link Failure in the Presence of Aleatory Uncertainty.

Probability of loss of assured safety (PLOAS) is modeled for weak link (WL)/strong link (SL) systems in which one or more WLs or SLs could potentially degrade into a precursor condition to link failure that will be followed by an actual failure after some amount of elapsed time. The following topics are considered: (i) Definition of precursor occurrence time cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) for individual WLs and SLs, (ii) Formal representation of PLOAS with constant delay times, (iii) Approximation and illustration of PLOAS with constant delay times, (iv) Formal representation of PLOAS with aleatory uncertainty in delay times, (v) Approximation and illustration of PLOAS with aleatory uncertainty in delay times, (vi) Formal representation of PLOAS with delay times defined by functions of link properties at occurrence times for failure precursors, (vii) Approximation and illustration of PLOAS with delay times defined by functions of link properties at occurrence times for failure precursors, and (viii) Procedures for the verification of PLOAS calculations for the three indicated definitions of delayed link failure.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Using spatial information about recurrence risk for robust optimization of dose-painting prescription functions

Purpose: To develop a robust method for deriving dose-painting prescription functions using spatial information about the risk for disease recurrence. Methods: Spatial distributions of radiobiological model parameters are derived from distributions of recurrence risk after uniform irradiation. These model parameters are then used to derive optimal dose-painting prescription functions given a constant mean biologically effective dose. Results: An estimate for the optimal dose distribution can be derived based on spatial information about recurrence risk. Dose painting based on imaging markers that are moderately or poorly correlated with recurrence risk are predicted to potentially result in inferior disease control when compared the same mean biologically effective dose delivered uniformly. A robust optimization approach may partially mitigate this issue. Conclusions: The methods described here can be used to derive an estimate for a robust, patient-specific prescription function for use in dose painting. Two approximate scaling relationships were observed: First, the optimal choice for the maximum dose differential when using either a linear or two-compartment prescription function is proportional to R, where R is the Pearson correlation coefficient between a given imaging marker and recurrence risk after uniform irradiation. Second, the predicted maximum possible gain in tumor control probability for any robust optimization technique is nearly proportional to the square of R.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Detailed SHAPE and evolutionary behavior of the X-ray luminosity function of active galactic nuclei

We construct the rest-frame 2–10 keV intrinsic X-ray luminosity function (XLF) of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) from a combination of X-ray surveys from the all-sky Swift BAT survey to the Chandra Deep Field South. We use ∼3200 AGNs in our analysis, which covers six orders of magnitude in flux. The inclusion of XMM and Chandra COSMOS data has allowed us to investigate the detailed behavior of the XLF and evolution. In deriving our XLF, we take into account realistic AGN spectrum templates, absorption corrections, and probability density distributions in photometric redshift. We present an analytical expression for the overall behavior of the XLF in terms of the luminosity-dependent density evolution, smoothed two-power-law expressions in 11 redshift shells, three-segment power-law expression of the number density evolution in four luminosity classes, and binned XLF. We observe a sudden flattening of the low luminosity end slope of the XLF slope at z ≳0.6. Detailed structures of the AGN downsizing have also been revealed, where the number density curves have two clear breaks at all luminosity classes above log L{sub X}>43. The two-break structure is suggestive of two-phase AGN evolution, consisting of major merger triggering and secular processes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fixed Source Sensitivity Calculations for Inertial Confinement Fusion Applications

A numerical code library was developed for the radiation transport code MCNP6.3 to calculate generalized response sensitivity coefficients for fixed source neutron transport problems with applications to inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments. The new MCNP6.3 dependency is used to generate a novel time convolution response that represents a neutron time-of-flight (nToF) signal. The traditional suite of macroscopic cross-section sensitivities and constrained fixed source probability distribution sensitivities are available for both the standard and the new response tallies in this library. However, novel sensitivity coefficients for the constrained hyperparameters of analytic fixed source probability distributions are emphasized in this work for their connection to ICF neutron transport models. Particularly, advanced Monte Carlo methods are developed for calculating the sensitivity of a nToF signal to perturbations in an ICF plasma’s ion temperature and burn history as well as perturbations in the target liner mass density and the shape parameters of the nToF detector’s impulse response function. Together, these capabilities form an advanced suite of computational tools that can be used to analyze and extract information from any ICF experimental platform.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Selection biases in empirical p(z) methods for weak lensing

To measure the mass of foreground objects with weak gravitational lensing, one needs to estimate the redshift distribution of lensed background sources. This is commonly done in an empirical fashion, i.e. with a reference sample of galaxies of known spectroscopic redshift, matched to the source population. In this paper, we develop a simple decision tree framework that, under the ideal conditions of a large, purely magnitude-limited reference sample, allows an unbiased recovery of the source redshift probability density function p(z), as a function of magnitude and colour. We use this framework to quantify biases in empirically estimated p(z) caused by selection effects present in realistic reference and weak lensing source catalogues, namely (1) complex selection of reference objects by the targeting strategy and success rate of existing spectroscopic surveys and (2) selection of background sources by the success of object detection and shape measurement at low signal to noise. For intermediate-to-high redshift clusters, and for depths and filter combinations appropriate for ongoing lensing surveys, we find that (1) spectroscopic selection can cause biases above the 10 per cent level, which can be reduced to ≈5 per cent by optimal lensing weighting, while (2) selection effects in the shape catalogue bias mass estimates at or below the 2 per cent level. Finally, this illustrates the importance of completeness of the reference catalogues for empirical redshift estimation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Angular Correlation Function Estimators Accounting for Contamination from Probabilistic Distance Measurements

With the advent of surveys containing millions to billions of galaxies, it is imperative to develop analysis techniques that utilize the available statistical power. In galaxy clustering, even small sample contamination arising from distance uncertainties can lead to large artifacts, which the standard estimator for two-point correlation functions does not account for. We first introduce a formalism, termed decontamination, that corrects for sample contamination by utilizing the observed cross-correlations in the contaminated samples; this corrects any correlation function estimator for contamination. Using this formalism, we present a new estimator that uses the standard estimator to measure correlation functions in the contaminated samples but then corrects for contamination. We also introduce a weighted estimator that assigns each galaxy a weight in each redshift bin based on its probability of being in that bin. We demonstrate that these estimators effectively recover the true correlation functions and their covariance matrices. Our estimators can correct for sample contamination caused by misclassification between object types as well as photometric redshifts; they should be particularly helpful for studies of galaxy evolution and baryonic acoustic oscillations, where forward modeling the clustering signal using the contaminated redshift distribution is undesirable.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Reducing systematic error in weak lensing cluster surveys

Weak lensing provides an important route toward collecting samples of clusters of galaxies selected by mass. Subtle systematic errors in image reduction can compromise the power of this technique. We use the B-mode signal to quantify this systematic error and to test methods for reducing this error. We show that two procedures are efficient in suppressing systematic error in the B-mode: (1) refinement of the mosaic CCD warping procedure to conform to absolute celestial coordinates and (2) truncation of the smoothing procedure on a scale of 10'. Application of these procedures reduces the systematic error to 20% of its original amplitude. We provide an analytic expression for the distribution of the highest peaks in noise maps that can be used to estimate the fraction of false peaks in the weak-lensing κ-signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) maps as a function of the detection threshold. Based on this analysis, we select a threshold S/N = 4.56 for identifying an uncontaminated set of weak-lensing peaks in two test fields covering a total area of ∼3 deg{sup 2}. Taken together these fields contain seven peaks above the threshold. Among these, six are probable systems of galaxies and one is a superposition. We confirm the reliability of these peaks with dense redshift surveys, X-ray, and imaging observations. The systematic error reduction procedures we apply are general and can be applied to future large-area weak-lensing surveys. Our high-peak analysis suggests that with an S/N threshold of 4.5, there should be only 2.7 spurious weak-lensing peaks even in an area of 1000 deg{sup 2}, where we expect ∼2000 peaks based on our Subaru fields.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Anderson Localization of Thermal Phonons Leads to a Thermal Conductivity Maximum

Our elastic model of ErAs disordered GaAs/AlAs superlattices exhibits a local thermal conductivity maximum as a function of length due to exponentially suppressed Anderson-localized phonons. By analyzing the sample-to-sample fluctuations in the dimensionless conductance, g, the transition from diffusive to localized transport is identified as the crossover from the multichannel to single-channel transport regime g ≈ 1. Single parameter scaling is shown to hold in this crossover regime through the universality of the probability distribution of g that is independent of system size and disorder strength.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Liquid state properties of SEI components in dimethoxyethane

The solid-electrolyte interphase (SEI) layer is a critical constituent of battery technology, which incorporates the use of lithium metals. Since the formation of the SEI is difficult to avoid, the engineering and harnessing of the SEI are absolutely critical to advancing energy storage. One problem is that much fundamental information about SEI properties is lacking due to the difficulty in probing a chemically complex interfacial system. One such property that is currently unknown is the dissolution of the SEI. This process can have significant effects on the stability of the SEI, which is critical to battery performance but is difficult to probe experimentally. Here, we report the use of ab initio computational chemistry simulations to probe the solution state properties of SEI components LiF, Li 2 O, LiOH, and Li 2 CO 3 in order to study their dissolution and other solution-based characteristics. Ab initio molecular dynamics was used to study the solvation structures of the SEI with a combination of radial distribution functions, discrete solvation structure maps, and vibrational density of states, which allows for the determination of free energies. From the change in free energy of dissolution, we determined that LiOH is the most likely component to dissolve in the electrolyte followed by LiF, Li 2 CO 3 , and Li 2 O although none were favored thermodynamically. Furthermore, this indicates that dissolution is not probable, but Li 2 O would make the most stable SEI with regard to dissolution in the electrolyte.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

SUPERNOVA REMNANT PROGENITOR MASSES IN M31

Using Hubble Space Telescope photometry, we age-date 59 supernova remnants (SNRs) in the spiral galaxy M31 and use these ages to estimate zero-age main-sequence masses (M{sub ZAMS}) for their progenitors. To accomplish this, we create color-magnitude diagrams (CMDs) and employ CMD fitting to measure the recent star formation history of the regions surrounding cataloged SNR sites. We identify any young coeval population that likely produced the progenitor star, then assign an age and uncertainty to that population. Application of stellar evolution models allows us to infer the M{sub ZAMS} from this age. Because our technique is not contingent on identification or precise location of the progenitor star, it can be applied to the location of any known SNRs. We identify significant young star formation around 53 of the 59 SNRs and assign progenitor masses to these, representing a factor of {approx}2 increase over currently measured progenitor masses. We consider the remaining six SNRs as either probable Type Ia candidates or the result of core-collapse progenitors that have escaped their birth sites. In general, the distribution of recovered progenitor masses is bottom-heavy, showing a paucity of the most massive stars. If we assume a single power-law distribution, dN/dM{proportional_to}M{sup {alpha}}, then we find a distribution that is steeper than a Salpeter initial mass function (IMF) ({alpha} = -2.35). In particular, we find values of {alpha} outside the range -2.7 {>=} {alpha} {>=} -4.4 to be inconsistent with our measured distribution at 95% confidence. If instead we assume a distribution that follows a Salpeter IMF up to some maximum mass, then we find that values of M{sub Max} > 26 are inconsistent with the measured distribution at 95% confidence. In either scenario, the data suggest that some fraction of massive stars may not explode. The result is preliminary and requires more SNRs and further analysis. In addition, we use our distribution to estimate a minimum mass for core collapse between 7.0 and 7.8 M{sub Sun }.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Measure of quantum correlations that lies approximately between entanglement and discord

When a quantum system is divided into two local subsystems, measurements on the two subsystems can exhibit correlations beyond those possible in a classical joint probability distribution; these are partially explained by entanglement, and more generally by a wider class of measures such as the quantum discord. In this paper, I introduce a simple thought experiment defining a measure of quantum correlations, which I call the accord, and write the result as a minimax optimization over unitary matrices. I find the exact result for pure states as a simple function of the Schmidt coefficients and provide a complete proof, and I likewise provide and prove the result for several classes of mixed states, notably including all states of two qubits and the experimentally relevant case of a pure state mixed with colorless noise. I demonstrate that for two qubit states the accord provides a tight lower bound on the discord; for Bell diagonal states it is also an upper bound on entanglement.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A catastrophic tropical drought kills hydraulically vulnerable tree species

Drought-related tree mortality is now a widespread phenomenon predicted to increase in magnitude with climate change. However, the patterns of which species and trees are most vulnerable to drought, and the underlying mechanisms have remained elusive, in part due to the lack of relevant data and difficulty of predicting the location of catastrophic drought years in advance. In this work, we used long-term demographic records and extensive databases of functional traits and distribution patterns to understand the responses of 20–53 species to an extreme drought in a seasonally dry tropical forest in Costa Rica, which occurred during the 2015 El Niño Southern Oscillation event. Overall, species-specific mortality rates during the drought ranged from 0% to 34%, and varied little as a function of tree size. By contrast, hydraulic safety margins correlated well with probability of mortality among species, while morphological or leaf economics spectrum traits did not. This firmly suggests hydraulic traits as targets for future research.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Investigation of magnetic-pole-enhanced inductively coupled nitrogen-argon plasmas

This article presented the features of the mixed mode and H mode in magnetic pole enhanced, inductively coupled Ar-N{sub 2} plasmas using RF-compensated Langmuir probe measurements. To fully characterize plasma parameters and electron energy probability functions (EEPFs), the gas pressure and argon content were varied. It was observed that with increasing the nitrogen content and gas pressure, the critical RF power to sustain H mode increases; this increase was more prominent for pure nitrogen discharge at higher pressure. The electron number density (n{sub e}) shows increasing trend with increasing RF power, while at higher gas pressures, the electron number density decreases at fixed RF power. Mostly, the EEPFs show a Maxwellian distribution even at low RF power (for higher argon content in the discharge) and at moderate RF power (for higher or pure nitrogen content in the discharge) for pressures of 15-60 mTorr. With increasing the nitrogen content in the mixture, the low energy part of the EEPF is more Druyvesteyn with a distorted high energy tail at low RF power. At fixed RF power, the slope of EEPF changes sharply with increasing pressure. It was observed that in hybrid mode, the EEPF at higher gas pressure (75 mTorr) in a pure nitrogen discharge shows a flat hole near the average electron energy of 3 eV and changes to Maxwellian distribution in H mode. The skin depth versus RF power shows that the skin depth is smaller than the critical dimension of the chamber, regardless of the gas type and the gas pressure.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Transitional regimes of natural convection in a differentially heated cubical cavity under the effects of wall and molecular gas radiation

The transition to unsteadiness and the dynamics of weakly turbulent natural convection, coupled to wall or gas radiation in a differentially heated cubical cavity with adiabatic lateral walls, are studied numerically. The working fluid is air with small contents of water vapor and carbon dioxide whose infrared spectral radiative properties are modelled by the absorption distribution function model. A pseudo spectral Chebyshev collocation method is used to solve the flow field equations and is coupled to a direct ray tracing method for radiation transport. Flow structures are identified by means of either the proper orthogonal decomposition or the dynamic mode decomposition methods. We first retrieve the classical mechanism of transition to unsteadiness without radiation, characterized by counter-rotating streamwise-oriented vortices generated at the exit of the vertical boundary layers. Wall radiation through a transparent medium leads to a homogenization of lateral wall temperatures and the resulting transition mechanism is similar to that obtained with perfectly conducting lateral walls. The transition is due to an unstable stratification upstream the vertical boundary layers and is characterized by periodically oscillating transverse rolls of axis perpendicular to the main flow. When molecular gas radiation is accounted for, no periodic solution is found and the transition to unsteadiness displays complex structures with chimneys-like rolls whose axes are again parallel to the main flow. The origin of this instability is probably due to centrifugal forces, as suggested previously for the case without radiation. Above the transition to unsteadiness, at Ra = 3 × 10{sup 8}, it is shown that both wall and gas radiation significantly intensify turbulent fluctuations, decrease the thermal stratification in the core of the cavity, and increase the global circulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Effect of aRandom Transverse Field on the Ferroelectric Properties of aNanowire with Core/Shell Morphology (FN(C/S)M)

In this paper, we have used the effective field theory (EFT) based on the probability distribution method (PDM) to study the hysteresis behavior of a ferroelectric nanowire with core/shell morphology (FN(C/S)M) in a random electric field (REF). This system is studied by using the transverse Ising model (TIM). We have studied the effects of the temperature, the random transverse field (RTF), the surface shell coupling, and the concentration on the hysteresis loops, the coercive field, and the remanent polarization of the nanowire. A number of characteristic behaviors have been found, such as the existence of the relaxor character for appropriate values of the system parameters. The remanent polarization and the coercive field, as a function of the temperature, are examined.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Leading jets and energy loss

The formation and evolution of leading jets can be described by jet functions which satisfy non-linear DGLAP-type evolution equations. Different than for inclusive jets, the leading jet functions constitute normalized probability densities for the leading jet to carry a longitudinal momentum fraction relative to the initial fragmenting parton. We present a parton shower algorithm which allows for the calculation of leading-jet cross sections where logarithms of the jet radius and threshold logarithms are resummed to next-to-leading logarithmic (NLL') accuracy. By calculating the mean of the leading jet distribution, we are able to quantify the average out-of-jet radiation, the so-called jet energy loss. When an additional reference scale is measured, we are able to determine the energy loss of leading jets at the cross section level which is identical to parton energy loss at leading-logarithmic accuracy. We identify several suitable cross sections for an extraction of the jet energy loss and we present numerical results for leading subjets at the LHC. In addition, we consider hemisphere and event-wide leading jets in electron-positron annihilation similar to measurements performed at LEP. Besides the average energy loss, we also consider its variance and other statistical quantities such as the KL divergence which quantifies the difference between quark and gluon jet energy loss. We expect that our results will be particularly relevant for quantifying the energy loss of quark and gluon jets that propagate through hot or cold nuclear matter.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Towards a specific reaction parameter density functional for reactive scattering of H{sub 2} from Pd(111)

Recently, an implementation of the specific reaction parameter (SRP) approach to density functional theory (DFT) was used to study several reactive scattering experiments of H{sub 2} on Cu(111). It was possible to obtain chemical accuracy (1 kcal/mol ≈ 4.2 kJ/mol), and therefore, accurately model this paradigmatic example of activated H{sub 2} dissociation on a metal surface. In this work, the SRP-DFT methodology is applied to the dissociation of hydrogen on a Pd(111) surface, in order to test whether the SRP-DFT approach is also applicable to non-activated H{sub 2}-metal systems. In the calculations, the Born–Oppenheimer static surface approximations are used. A comparison to molecular beam sticking experiments, performed at incidence energies ⩾125 meV, on H{sub 2} + Pd(111) suggested the PBE-vdW [where the Perdew, Burke, and Ernzerhof (PBE) correlation is replaced by van der Waals correlation] functional as a candidate SRP density functional describing the reactive scattering of H{sub 2} on Pd(111). Unfortunately, quantum dynamics calculations are not able to reproduce the molecular beam sticking results for incidence energies <125 meV. From a comparison to initial state-resolved (degeneracy averaged) sticking probabilities it seems clear that for H{sub 2} + Pd(111) dynamic trapping and steering effects are important, and that these effects are not yet well modeled with the potential energy surfaces considered here. Applying the SRP-DFT method to systems where H{sub 2} dissociation is non-activated remains difficult. It is suggested that a density functional that yields a broader barrier distribution and has more non-activated pathways than PBE-vdW (i.e., non-activated dissociation at some sites but similarly high barriers at the high energy end of the spectrum) should allow a more accurate description of the available experiments. Finally, it is suggested that new and better characterized molecular beam sticking experiments be done on H{sub 2} + Pd(111), to facilitate the development of a more accurate theoretical description of this system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Probabilistic structure of the geodynamo

One of the most intriguing features of Earth's axial magnetic dipole field, well known from the geological record, is its occasional and unpredictable reversal of polarity. Understanding the phenomenon is rendered very difficult by the highly nonlinear nature of the underlying magnetohydrodynamic problem. Numerical simulations of the liquid outer core, where regeneration occurs, are only able to model conditions that are far from Earth-like. On the analytical front, the situation is not much better; basic calculations, such as relating the average rate of reversals to various core parameters, have apparently been intractable. Here, we present a framework for solving such problems. Starting with the magnetic induction equation, we show that by considering its sources to be stochastic processes with fairly general properties, we can derive a differential equation for the joint probability distribution of the dominant toroidal and poloidal modes. This can be simplified to a Fokker-Planck equation and, with the help of an adiabatic approximation, reduced even further to an equation for the dipole amplitude alone. From these equations various quantities related to the magnetic field, including the average reversal rate, field strength, and time to complete a reversal, can be computed as functions of a small number of numerical parameters. As a result, these parameters in turn can be computed from physical considerations or constrained by paleomagnetic, numerical, and experimental data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗