β-delayed neutron emission of r-process nuclei at the N = 82 shell closure
Not Available
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
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Spatiotemporal Downscaling Model for Solar Irradiance Forecast Using Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest and Gaussian Process
Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity estimation requires high-resolution, site-specific solar irradiance data to account for localized variability. However, global datasets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), provide regional averages that fail to capture the fine-scale fluctuations critical for large-scale grid integration. This limitation is particularly relevant in the context of increasing distributed energy resources (DERs) penetration, such as rooftop PV. Additionally, it is critical to the implementation of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 2222, which facilitates DER participation in U.S. bulk power markets. To address this challenge, this study evaluates Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest (NNRF) and Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP) models for spatiotemporal downscaling of global solar irradiance data. By leveraging historical irradiance and meteorological data, these models incorporate spatial, temporal, and feature-based correlations to enhance local irradiance predictions. The NNRF model, a machine-learning approach, prioritizes computational efficiency and predictive accuracy, while the NNGP model offers a level of interpretability and prediction uncertainty by numerically quantifying correlations and dependencies in the data. Model validation was conducted using day-ahead predictions. The results showed that the average Goodness of Fit (GoF) of the NNRF model of 90.61% across all eight sites outperformed the GoF of the NNGP of 85.88%. Additionally, the computational speed of NNRF was 2.5 times faster than the NNGP. Finally, the NNGP displayed polynomial scaling while the NNRF scaled linearly with increasing number of nearest neighbors. Additional validation of the model on five sites in Puerto Rico further confirmed the superiority of the NNRF model over the NNGP model. These findings highlight the robustness and computational efficiency of NNRF for large-scale solar irradiance downscaling, making it a strong candidate for improving PV capacity estimation and real-time electricity market integration for DERs.
Asiedu, Shadrack (ORCID:0009000646004826)↗
Leveraging FPGA Advantages for Quicker Data Processing for LBNF
The Long Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) will deliver a 2.4 MW muon neutrino beam from Fermilab to the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), requiring unprecedented precision in beamline alignment to achieve DUNE's neutrino oscillation measurement goals. Vertical misalignments of beamline components as small as 0.5 mm can contribute 6-7\% uncertainty in predicted neutrino flux, necessitating sub-0.1 mm alignment monitoring capabilities. The Horn Location Sensor (HLS) system employs frequency sweep interferometry (FSI) in a distributed hydrostatic leveling network to achieve the required precision under harsh radiation conditions up to 5000 kRad/year. Traditional FSI implementations suffer from laser sweep nonlinearities that degrade resolution and require computationally intensive post-processing corrections using gas reference cells. This work presents a real-time FPGA-based implementation of the HLS data acquisition and processing system using a sweep tracker interferometer for dynamic sweep linearization. The system utilizes a PYNQ-Z2 FPGA with programmable logic implementing parallel 16k-point FFT processing across four channels, synchronized by the sweep tracker signal to eliminate post-processing requirements. Spectral performance testing demonstrates significant improvements in peak sharpness compared to traditional fixed-frequency digitization. The FPGA implementation enables real-time displacement monitoring with processing speeds orders of magnitude faster than software-based approaches, essential for the operational requirements of LBNF's eventual distributed sensor network. This advancement in real-time FSI processing directly supports DUNE's precision neutrino physics program by providing the rapid feedback necessary for maintaining stringent beamline alignment tolerances during high-power beam operations.
Rossel, Jacob↗
Continuous observations of the surface energy budget and meteorology over the Arctic sea ice during MOSAiC
Abstract The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) was a yearlong expedition supported by the icebreaker R/V Polarstern , following the Transpolar Drift from October 2019 to October 2020. The campaign documented an annual cycle of physical, biological, and chemical processes impacting the atmosphere-ice-ocean system. Of central importance were measurements of the thermodynamic and dynamic evolution of the sea ice. A multi-agency international team led by the University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA-PSL observed meteorology and surface-atmosphere energy exchanges, including radiation; turbulent momentum flux; turbulent latent and sensible heat flux; and snow conductive flux. There were four stations on the ice, a 10 m micrometeorological tower paired with a 23/30 m mast and radiation station and three autonomous Atmospheric Surface Flux Stations. Collectively, the four stations acquired ~928 days of data. This manuscript documents the acquisition and post-processing of those measurements and provides a guide for researchers to access and use the data products.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Bright magnetic dipole radiation from two-dimensional lead-halide perovskites
Light-matter interactions in semiconductors are uniformly treated within the electric dipole approximation; multipolar interactions are considered “forbidden.” We experimentally demonstrate that this approximation inadequately describes light emission in two-dimensional (2D) hybrid organic-inorganic perovskites (HOIPs), solution processable semiconductors with promising optoelectronic properties. By exploiting the highly oriented crystal structure, we use energy-momentum spectroscopies to demonstrate that an exciton-like sideband in 2D HOIPs exhibits a multipolar radiation pattern with highly directed emission. Electromagnetic and quantum-mechanical analyses indicate that this emission originates from an out-of-plane magnetic dipole transition arising from the 2D character of electronic states. Symmetry arguments and temperature-dependent measurements suggest a dynamic symmetry-breaking mechanism that is active over a broad temperature range. These results challenge the paradigm of electric dipole–dominated light-matter interactions in optoelectronic materials, provide new perspectives on the origins of unexpected sideband emission in HOIPs, and tease the possibility of metamaterial-like scattering phenomena at the quantum-mechanical level.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Anatomy of a mega‐radiation: Biogeography and niche evolution in Astragalus
Premise Astragalus (Fabaceae), with more than 3000 species, represents a globally successful radiation of morphologically highly similar species predominant across the northern hemisphere. It has attracted attention from systematists and biogeographers, who have asked what factors might be behind the extraordinary diversity of this important arid-adapted clade and what sets it apart from close relatives with far less species richness. Methods Here, for the first time using extensive phylogenetic sampling, we asked whether (1) Astragalus is uniquely characterized by bursts of radiation or whether diversification instead is uniform and no different from closely related taxa. Then we tested whether the species diversity of Astragalus is attributable specifically to its predilection for (2) cold and arid habitats, (3) particular soils, or to (4) chromosome evolution. Finally, we tested (5) whether Astragalus originated in central Asia as proposed and (6) whether niche evolutionary shifts were subsequently associated with the colonization of other continents. Results Our results point to the importance of heterogeneity in the diversification of Astragalus, with upshifts associated with the earliest divergences but not strongly tied to any abiotic factor or biogeographic regionalization tested here. The only potential correlate with diversification we identified was chromosome number. Biogeographic shifts have a strong association with the abiotic environment and highlight the importance of central Asia as a biogeographic gateway. Conclusions Our investigation shows the importance of phylogenetic and evolutionary studies of logistically challenging “mega-radiations.” Our findings reject any simple key innovation behind high diversity and underline the often nuanced, multifactorial processes leading to species-rich clades.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
An effective field theory of quantum mechanical black hole horizons
We develop an effective theory which describes black holes with quantum mechanical horizons that is valid at scales long compared to the Schwarzschild radius but short compared to the lifetime of the black hole. Our formalism allows one to calculate the quantum mechanical effects in scattering processes involving black hole asymptotic states. We point out that the EFT Wightman functions which describe Hawking radiation in the Unruh vacuum are not Planck suppressed and are actually enhanced relative to those in the Boulware vacuum, for which such radiation is absent. We elaborate on this point showing how the non-Planck suppressed effects of Hawking radiation cancel in classical observables.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Metal–Organic Framework–Polyacrylonitrile Composite Beads for Xenon Capture
Mechanically robust forms of HKUST-1 metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) were fabricated by embedding the MOF in a passive polyacrylonitrile (PAN) matrix at different MOF loadings of 10–90 mass%. Here, the PAN is highly porous and acts as a scaffold that holds the active MOF adsorbent in place for Xe capture. Data presented herein show that the PAN matrix does not notably interfere with the Xe capture process where the Xe capacities scale somewhat linearly with the increase in MOF loading in the composites. Radiation testing of the composites under a gamma flux revealed that they are highly tolerant to these types of radiation fields.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Modeling the Impact of the Organic Aerosol Phase State on Multiphase OH Reactive Uptake Kinetics and the Resultant Heterogeneous Oxidation Timescale of Organic Aerosol in the Amazon Rainforest
Accurate predictions of chemical lifetime, i.e., oxidation timescale and change in the mass of organic aerosols (OAs) in atmospheric models, are critical to quantify the impacts of OA on aerosol–cloud interactions, radiative forcing, and air quality. The heterogeneous oxidation of OA by hydroxyl (OH) radicals is a key process governing OA mass changes during their oxidation. Recently, laboratory observations of the OH uptake coefficient (γ OH ) and heterogeneous reaction rate (k het,OH ) for different OA systems with varying phase states have been combined to develop a new parameterization of γ OH and k het,OH as a function of the OA phase state, i.e., viscosity (η OA ). Here, in this work, we use a recently published viscosity prediction framework to analyze the new γ OH and k het,OH parameterization with a box model. Subsequently, we implement this box model to predict γ OH and k het,OH over the Amazon rainforest in the dry-to-wet transition season with both significant biomass burning and biogenic influences. Relevant parameters within our box model are specified based on detailed regional model simulations over the Amazon using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). η OA is predicted as a function of species volatility, OA composition (including water uptake) along with ambient relative humidity (RH), and temperature. Based on ambient conditions simulated by WRF-Chem over the entire atmospheric column, we use the box model to predict the upper bounds of the heterogeneous oxidation timescale of OA. Based on previous laboratory measurements, we assume that this heterogeneous OH oxidation causes fragmentation (carbon loss) of OA, followed by the evaporation of the fragmented molecules that results in the exponential decay of OA. We predict that the oxidation timescale of OA is ~1 month near the Earth’s surface in the pristine Amazonian background because of low OH concentrations. But OA is oxidized more rapidly within urban and wildfire plumes near the Earth’s surface with an order of magnitude higher OH concentrations compared to the pristine background, causing the simulated oxidation timescale of OA to be much shorter, ~3–4 days. At 3–5 km altitudes where biomass burning OA is predicted to be semisolid, the heterogeneous oxidation timescale is estimated as ~6 days to 3 weeks and decreases with increasing OH concentrations within plumes. We show that the simulated mass loss of OA is strongly size-dependent, where smaller particles oxidize more rapidly compared to larger particles due to their greater per-particle surface area-to-volume ratio. Increasing urbanization and deforestation in the Amazon in the future might increase OH concentrations in the background Amazon, causing faster oxidation of OA. At higher altitudes above liquid clouds, especially in the upper troposphere where temperatures approach ~250 K, future measurements are needed to reduce the uncertainties related to the mass loss of OA at colder temperatures and low relative humidity conditions due to its heterogeneous OH oxidation.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Near-field models and simulations of pellet ablation in tokamaks
Here, detailed numerical studies of the ablation of a single neon pellet in the plasma disruption mitigation parameter space have been performed. Simulations were carried out using FronTier, a hydrodynamic/low magnetic Reynolds number MHD code with explicit tracking of material interfaces. FronTier's physics models resolve the pellet surface ablation and the formation of a dense, cold cloud of ablated material, the deposition of energy from hot plasma electrons, the expansion of the ablation cloud along magnetic field lines, and the radiation losses. A local thermodynamic equilibrium model based on Saha equations has been used to resolve atomic processes in the cloud and Redlich–Kwong corrections to the ideal gas equation of state for cold and dense gases, which have been used near the pellet surface. The FronTier pellet code is a next generation of the code described. It has been validated against the semi-analytic improved neutral gas shielding model in the 1D spherically symmetric approximation. Main results include quantification of the influence of atomic processes and Redlich–Kwong corrections on the pellet ablation in spherically symmetric approximation and verification of analytic scaling laws in a broad range of pellet and plasma parameters. Using axially symmetric MHD simulations, the properties of ablation channels and the reduction of pellet ablation rates in magnetic fields of increasing strength have been studied. While the main emphasis has been given to neon pellets for the plasma disruption mitigation, selected results on deuterium fueling pellets have also been presented.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Phase-controlled direct laser acceleration enabled by longitudinal variation of the laser-driven quasi-static plasma magnetic field
Direct laser acceleration (DLA) enables energy transfer from an ultra-high-intensity laser to plasma electrons and underpins many laser-driven particle and radiation-source concepts. A laser-driven azimuthal plasma magnetic field is a key player in this process: it confines energetic electrons, induces betatron oscillations, and makes possible a resonant interaction between the betatron motion and the laser field. While this betatron resonance can enhance electron energy gain, the gain itself generally drives frequency detuning and promotes largely reversible energy exchange that limits net acceleration. Here we show, using a test-electron model with prescribed fields, that a slow longitudinal increase of the quasi-static plasma magnetic field qualitatively changes DLA by introducing hysteresis in the ratio of the betatron frequency to the laser frequency experienced by the electron, so that this ratio depends on the prior evolution of the electron even at the same energy. This hysteresis enables phase control of the electron-laser energy exchange and suppresses the usual reversibility of DLA, allowing electrons to retain the acquired energy and sustain energy gain without intermittent losses.
direct laser acceleration↗
Electron collisional excitation cross-section measurements and modeling for select Ni-like to Ge-like gold transitions
We have experimentally determined the electron collisional excitation cross-sections for several 3d→4f and 3d→5f excitations in Ni- to Ge-like Au at energies of ~ 0.4, 1, 2, and 3 keV above threshold energy, E T , for the 3d→4f excitations ( E T ~ 2.5 keV) and ~ 0.2, 1, and 2 keV above threshold energy for the 3d→5f excitations ( E T ~ 3.3 keV). The cross-section measurements are possible by using the GSFC micro-calorimeter to record emission spectra from beam plasmas created in the Livermore EBIT-I electron beam ion trap. The cross-sections are experimentally determined from the ratio of the measured intensities of the collisionally excited lines to the intensities of the radiative recombination lines in monoenergetic electron distribution EBIT-I plasmas. The effects of polarization and Auger processes in the beam plasmas are accounted for in the cross-section determination. Experimentally determined cross-sections are compared with those from HULLAC, DWS, and FAC calculations. Finally, the measurements exhibit significant differences with the calculations of these excitation cross-sections.
74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
TRACER-Uncrewed Aircraft System (TRACER-UAS) Field Campaign Report
Convective processes drive the development of clouds across a variety of scales, thereby playing a central role in governing weather and climate globally. These processes help to set the stage for circulations that redistribute heat and moisture throughout the lower atmosphere, and simultaneously develop storms that supply precipitation to regions that depend on such rain events for supporting a variety of societal needs. At the same time, extreme precipitation events can result in localized flooding of low-lying areas, posing hazards to transportation and regional inhabitants, and potentially damaging structures and infrastructure. As a result, there is an inherent need to better understand the drivers and modulators of clouds and precipitation and leverage such understanding to make projections of how these important systems may evolve with a changing climate. With nearly three billion of Earth’s human inhabitants living within 200 km of a shoreline, development of such understanding is particularly important in coastal regimes. Central drivers of convective cloud development and life cycle in coastal environments include synoptic forcing, local meso- and microscale circulation regimes, microphysical evolution, and aerosol properties. Atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) development and its evolution can help drive the formation and organization of convective clouds, which then impart their own controls through dynamic processes related to latent heating and cooling (including cold-pool formation and propagation), three-dimensional radiative effects, and background environmental conditions (Fan et al. 2016). Such clouds have been contributing to record precipitation events in southeast Texas in recent years, relative to the last several decades of data from regional precipitation gauges (Fagnant et al. 2020). The greater Houston urban area has experienced particularly large increases in the frequency of extreme rainfall events, with enhanced intensity of extreme events (stretching of distribution tails) having potentially significant implications for watershed floodplain planning and mapping in greater Houston and Harris County. While the most extreme precipitation events were associated with tropical cyclones (e.g., Tropical Storm Allison and Hurricane Harvey; Blood 2014, Kao et al. 2019), strong thunderstorms can also deliver large amounts of precipitation over the area over relatively short periods.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Generalized kinetic model for defect evolution in irradiated materials
A fundamental and open problem in materials science is to determine how the structural properties of irradiated and self-irradiated materials evolve in time. Structural defects generated by irradiation lead to changes in a material’s macroscopic properties, and these macroscopic changes, such as volumetric swelling, can in turn give rise significant alterations of the functionality of a material. Here, we develop a unified analytical model to understand the complex interplay between aggregation, fragmentation, and recombination processes involving mobile clusters of defects such as bubbles, voids, and interstitial atoms in materials subject to radiative sources. Specifically, we employ a mean field approach to derive a system of coupled kinetic equations that describes both the time evolution of the density of each type of defect and how clusters of each defect form and grow as the material ages.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
SULI Report - Development of a Molten Salt Circulation Loop for in-situ Spectroscopy
This project supports the development of real time optical monitoring capabilities for molten salt reactor (MSR) environments by designing, testing, and refining a molten salt circulation loop suitable for combined laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) and ultraviolet visible (UV Vis) absorption measurements. Online spectroscopic monitoring is increasingly important for nuclear safeguards, corrosion tracking, and material accountancy, yet MSR process fluids present substantial challenges due to their chemical complexity and hazards such as high temperatures and radiation. To address these needs, this work focuses on Phase I, the development of a room temperature aqueous circulation loop that serves as a surrogate platform for evaluating flow behavior, optical access, and component performance prior to high temperature salt operation. Initial testing identified several practical issues—including leaks, obstructions, and two-phase flow through the absorption cell—that were systematically resolved through hardware replacement, flow path redesign, and venturi pressure optimization. Relocating the flow cell upstream of the primary venturi enabled periods of stable single-phase flow, demonstrating the feasibility of integrating optical diagnostics into a circulation system. The results of Phase I provide essential design insight for Phase II, which will incorporate furnace compatible materials and LiCl KCl eutectic salt. Completion of the molten salt system will deliver a reusable testbed for evaluating multimodal spectroscopic techniques, advancing nondestructive, real time monitoring tools for future MSR and nuclear fuel cycle applications.
98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗
Measurement of ( n, γ ) cross section of 90 Zr [Abstract]
The isotopes of Zr with A = [90, 91, 92, 94] make up more than 97% of naturally occurring Zr and are important to many nuclear applications such as nuclear reactors. One of the attractive qualities of naturally occurring Zr isotopes is that they have a low σγ/σt ratio at most neutron energies, such that they improve the neutron economy in reactors by preferentially scattering neutrons rather than absorbing them. This same quality also presents a challenge to measuring the capture cross section, σγ, of Zr isotopes. The ENDF/B-VIII.0 library has a relative uncertainty of approximately 10-20% for incident neutron energies < 0.1 MeV, and uncertainty greater than 20% for energies > 0.1 MeV for the majority of natural Zr isotopes. This motivated the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) to embark on a campaign to accurately measure and evaluate these isotopes of Zr. Here we will show energy-dependent neutron capture cross section measurements for the first enriched sample to be measured: 90 Zr. The measurements of isotopically enriched samples are being carried out at the Geel Electron Linear Accelerator (GELINA) facility of the Joint Research Center - Geel (JRC-Geel) of the European Union. As isotopic enrichment is a costly process we are careful not to activate any of the samples, as this may hinder future radiation-sensitive measurements. The activation analysis is presented in a report by Brown et al.. Once we were satisfied that the Zr samples would not be activated by the measurements, the 90 Zr sample was fabricated at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and shipped to GELINA. The dimensions of the cylindrical sample are approximately 0.12 cm thick and a radius of 2.5 cm. Since 90 Zr is not chemically reactive to air, bare metallic samples were employed. The sample was measured at a flight path (FP) length of 60 m, using four C 6 D 6 detectors on FP14. The final paper will include experimental details and measured cross section data for 90 Zr compared to current evaluated nuclear data libraries.
07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
Wide Bandgap Generation (WBGen): Developing the Future Wide Bandgap Power Electronics Engineering Workforce
This Final Technical Report (FTR) summarizes the work conducted at the Center for Power Electronics Systems (CPES) under the Wide-Bandgap Generation (WBGen) fellowship and traineeship program established by the Advanced Manufacturing and Technologies Office (AMMTO) of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) at Virginia Tech, which had as main objective to train the next generation of U.S. citizen power engineers with wide-bandgap (WBG) power semiconductor expertise, with the intent to aid in fulfilling the future workforce needs in this field. The latter was deemed of strategic importance given the fast-paced growth observed—and predicted—in the demand of this technical expertise, whose practitioners have become the enablers and executioners of the electrification transformation process that not just the U.S., but the whole world, is currently undergoing as it seeks for more effective and efficient ways to use energy. As such, the WBGen program set forth to achieve its educational goals, which in addition sought to broaden the range of WBG-based power electronics by conducting research and development on high-efficiency grid apparatus and high-efficiency electrical power systems, and to also enhance the power engineering curriculum by formalizing WBG-oriented design procedures replacing existent yet now obsolete design procedures developed for Silicon (Si) based power electronics. This effort led CPES to spearhead the development of a new major within The Bradley Electrical and Computer Engineering (ECE) Department at Virginia Tech, namely Electronic Power and Energy Systems (EPES), which coalesced power electronics and power systems courses to provide undergraduate students with a strong formation in the power engineering field, while creating a pipeline of graduate students that could pursue the WBG-based curriculum and conduct research at CPES. In all, in what is considered a true success, eight of the twenty WBGen fellows that graduated program were recruited from the ECE department undergraduate cohort. The traineeship emphasized as well, from its beginning, the partnership with industry and national laboratories, which took advantage of the successful industry consortium at CPES that has historically been formed by 80–90 power and energy companies working in close collaboration with the center. This gave WBGen fellows the accessibility and possibility to conduct internships at partner facilities during the summer months, focused solely on the evaluation, testing, and adoption of WBG devices, which were many times tightly related to their respective research work and plans. In addition, WBGen fellows conducted their main research work within the confines of research programs at CPES conducted with these industry partners, providing them with a unique opportunity to develop not just their technical expertise—while advancing their knowledge, but to also learn and practice a slew of skills needed for their professional growth. As such, the fellows tackled a variety of WBG-related research topics, from device reliability and capability aspects as well as packaging and integration, encompassing the use of advanced materials and new structures, current sharing challenges, and insulation systems, to advanced gate-drivers with integrated sensors and protection mechanisms and active current- and voltage-based control, to optimized layouts seeking to maximize the switching and power processing performance of these devices, to power processing solutions adopting Gallium-Nitride (GaN) and Silicon-Carbide (SiC) power semiconductors for a variety of applications; including radiation-hardened converters for space dc distribution systems, direct three-phase ac-to-ac power converters for aerospace systems, dc-ac inverters for automotive traction drives, high-frequency isolated dc-dc battery chargers also for heavy transportation systems, and medium-voltage dc-dc and dc-ac converters for distribution systems and future power grids. The WBGen program ultimately graduated a total of 20 power engineers, all experts on WBG-based power electronics, awarding 18 M.S. and 2 PhD degrees in the process. These fellows, all U.S. citizens, allowed CPES to increase the number of citizens students to 33 % at the peak of the program, as the traineeship made possible the recruitment of talent with more attractive graduate research assistantship (GRA) contracts. Unfortunately, the present U.S. citizen enrollment at CPES has declined back to historic levels—approximately 10 %, as the regular GRA rates are not competitive enough when compared with entry-level industry jobs. In all, WBGen fellows published a total of 7 peer-reviewed journal articles, 44 papers at international technical conferences, made 42 presentations at international technical conferences, and filed 4 invention disclosures and patent applications, which have since then been granted by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO). Their contribution to CPES, Virginia Tech, the United States, and the world, has been significant, and continues to yield results thanks to the exemplary career that the fellows have initiated at many of the partners of the program, which include Wolfspeed, Raytheon Technologies, Infineon, Lockheed Martin, Dominion Energy, Northrop Grumman, Rivian, Aerospace Corporation, Sandia National Laboratory, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, John Hopkins University, and Virginia Tech.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
The underappreciated importance of solar radiation in constraining spring phenology of temperate ecosystems in the Northern and Eastern United States
Spring phenology of temperate ecosystems is highly sensitive to climate change, generating various impacts on many important terrestrial surface biophysical processes. Although various prognostic models relying on environmental variables of temperature and photoperiod have been developed for spring phenology, comprehensive ecosystem-scale evaluations over large landscapes and long-time periods remain lacking. Further, environmental variables other than temperature and photoperiod might also importantly constrain spring phenology modelling but remain under-investigation. To address these issues, we leveraged around 20-years datasets of environmental variables (from Daymet and GLDAS products) and the spring phenology metric (i.e., the greenup date) respectively derived from MODIS and PhenoCams across 108 sites in the Northern and Eastern United States. We firstly cross-compared MODIS-derived greenup date with official PhenoCams product with high accuracy (R 2 = 0.70). Then, we evaluated the three prognostic models (i.e., Growing Degree Date (GDD), Sequential (SEQ) and optimality-based (OPT)) with MODIS-derived spring phenology, assessed the model residuals and their associations with soil moisture, rainfall, and solar radiation, and revised the two photoperiod-relevant models (SEQ, OPT) by replacing the daylength variable with solar radiation, which was found to contribute the most to model residuals. We found that 1) all models demonstrated good capability in characterizing spring phenology, with OPT performing the best (RMSE = 8.04 ± 5.05 days), followed by SEQ (RMSE = 10.57 ± 7.77 days) and GDD (RMSE = 10.84 ± 8.42 days), 2) all models displayed high model residuals showing tight correlation with solar radiation (r = 0.45–0.75), and 3) the revised models that included solar radiation significantly performed better with an RMSE reduction by 22.08%. Such results are likely because solar radiation better constrains early growing season plant photosynthesis than photoperiod, supporting the hypothesis of spring phenology as an adaptive strategy to maximize photosynthetic carbon gain (approximated by solar radiation) while minimizing frost damage risk (captured by temperature). Collectively, our study here reveals the underappreciated importance of solar radiation in constraining spring phenology of temperate ecosystems, and suggests ways to improve spring phenology modelling and other phenology-related ecological processes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗