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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Operational and Strategic Implementation of Dynamic Line Rating for Optimized Wind Energy Generation Integration

One primary goal of rendering today’s transmission grid “smarter” is to optimize and better manage its power transfer capacity in real time. Power transfer capacity is affected by three main elements: stability, voltage limits, and thermal ratings. All three are critical, but thermal ratings represent the greatest opportunity to quickly, reliably and economically utilize the grid’s true capacity. With the “Smarter Grid”, new solutions have been sought to give operators a better grasp on real time conditions, allowing them to manage and extend the usefulness of existing transmission infrastructure in a safe and reliable manner. The objective of the INL Wind Program is to provide industry a Dynamic Line Rating (DLR) solution that is state of the art as measured by cost, accuracy and dependability, to enable human operators to make informed decisions and take appropriate actions without human or system overloading and impacting the reliability of the grid. In addition to mitigating transmission line congestion to better integrate wind, DLR also offers the opportunity to improve the grid with optimized utilization of transmission lines to relieve congestion in general. As wind-generated energy has become a bigger part of the nation’s energy portfolio, researchers have learned that wind not only turns turbine blades to generate electricity, but can cool transmission lines and increase transfer capabilities significantly, sometimes up to 60 percent. INL’s DLR development supports EERE and The Wind Energy Technology Office’s goals by informing system planners and grid operators of available transmission capacity, beyond typical Static Line Ratings (SLR). SLRs are based on a fixed set of conservative environmental conditions to establish a limit on the amount of current lines can safely carry without overheating. Using commercially available weather monitors mounted on industry informed custom brackets developed by INL in combination with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) enhanced weather analysis and DLR software, INL’s project offers the potential of safely providing line ampacities up to 40 percent or more above existing SLRs, by using real time information rather than overly conservative SLR.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Phase-curve Pollution of Exoplanet Transmission Spectra

The occurrence of a planet transiting in front of its host star offers the opportunity to observe the planet’s atmosphere filtering starlight. The fraction of occulted stellar flux is roughly proportional to the optically thick area of the planet, the extent of which depends on the opacity of the planet’s gaseous envelope at the observed wavelengths. Chemical species, haze, and clouds are now routinely detected in exoplanet atmospheres through rather small features in transmission spectra, i.e., collections of planet-to-star area ratios across multiple spectral bins and/or photometric bands. Technological advances have led to a shrinking of the error bars down to a few tens of parts per million (ppm) per spectral point for the brightest targets. The upcoming James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is anticipated to deliver transmission spectra with precision down to 10 ppm. The increasing precision of measurements requires a reassessment of the approximations hitherto adopted in astrophysical models, including transit light-curve models. Recently, it has been shown that neglecting the planet’s thermal emission can introduce significant biases in the transit depth measured with the JWST/Mid-InfraRed Instrument, integrated between 5 and 12 μm. In this paper, we take a step forward by analyzing the effects of the approximation on transmission spectra over the 0.6–12 μm wavelength range covered by various JWST instruments. We present open-source software to predict the spectral bias, showing that, if not corrected, it may affect the inferred molecular abundances and thermal structure of some exoplanet atmospheres.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-T-248: Near Real-Time Analysis of Radiation Delivery and Imaging, Accuracy to Ensure Patient Safety

Purpose: To develop and optimize an effective software method for comparing planned to delivered control point machine parameters for all VARIAN TrueBeam treatments so as to permit (1) assessment of a large patient pool throughout their treatment course to quantify treatment technique specific systematic and random uncertainty of observables, (2) quantify the site specific daily imaging shifts required for target alignment, and (3) define tolerance levels for mechanical parameters and imaging parameters based on statistical analysis data gathered, and the dosimetric impact of variations. Methods: Treatment and imaging log files were directly compared to plan parameters for Eclipse and Pinnacle planned treatments via 3D, IMRT, control point, RapidArc, and electrons. Each control point from all beams/arcs (7984) for all fractions (1940) of all patients treated over six months were analyzed. At each control point gantry angle, collimator angle, couch angle, jaw positions, MLC positions, MU were compared. Additionally per-treatment isocenter shifts were calculated. Results were analyzed as a whole in treatment type subsets: IMRT, 3D, RapidArc; and in treatment site subsets: brain, chest/mediastinum, esophagus, H and N, lung, pelvis, prostate. Results: Daily imaging isocenter shifts from initial external tattoo alignment were dependent on the treatment site with < 0.5 cm translational shifts for H and N, Brain, and lung SBRT, while pelvis, esophagus shifts were ∼1 cm. Mechanical delivery parameters were within tolerance levels for all sub-beams. The largest variations were for RapidArc plans: gantry angle 0.11±0.12,collimator angle 0.00±0.00, jaw positions 0.48±0.26, MLC leaf positions 0.66±0.08, MU 0.14±0.34. Conclusion: Per-control point validation reveals deviations between planned and delivered parameters. If used in a near real-time error checking system, patient safety can be improved by equipping the treatment delivery system with additional forcing functions which by-pass human error avenues.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-J-172: A Quantitative Assessment of Lung Tumor Motion Using 4DCT Imaging Under Conditions of Controlled Breathing in the Management of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Using Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT)

Purpose: To study breathing related tumor motion amplitudes by lung lobe location under controlled breathing conditions used in Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT) for NSCLC. Methods: Sixty-five NSCLC SBRT patients since 2009 were investigated. Patients were categorized based on tumor anatomic location (RUL-17, RML-7, RLL-18, LUL-14, LLL-9). A 16-slice CT scanner [GE RT16 Pro] along with Varian Realtime Position Management (RPM) software was used to acquire the 4DCT data set using 1.25 mm slice width. Images were binned in 10 phases, T00 being at maximum inspiration ' T50 at maximum expiration phase. Tumor volume was segmented in T50 using the CT-lung window and its displacement were measured from phase to phase in all three axes; superiorinferior, anterior-posterior ' medial-lateral at the centroid level of the tumor. Results: The median tumor movement in each lobe was as follows: RUL= 3.8±2.0 mm (mean ITV: 9.5 cm{sup 3}), RML= 4.7±2.8 mm (mean ITV: 9.2 cm{sup 3}), RLL=6.6±2.6 mm (mean ITV: 12.3 cm{sup 3}), LUL=3.8±2.4 mm (mean ITV: 18.5 cm{sup 3}), ' LLL=4.7±2.5 mm (mean ITV: 11.9 cm{sup 3}). The median respiratory cycle for all patients was found to be 3.81 ± 1.08 seconds [minimum 2.50 seconds, maximum 7.07 seconds]. The tumor mobility incorporating breathing cycle was RUL = 0.95±0.49 mm/s, RML = 1.35±0.62 mm/s, RLL = 1.83±0.71 mm/s, LUL = 0.98 ±0.50 mm/s, and LLL = 1.15 ±0.53 mm/s. Conclusion: Our results show that tumor displacement is location dependent. The range of motion and mobility increases as the location of the tumor nears the diaphragm. Under abdominal compression, the magnitude of tumor motion is reduced by as much as a factor of 2 in comparison to reported tumor magnitudes under conventional free breathing conditions. This study demonstrates the utility of abdominal compression in reducing the tumor motion leading to reduced ITV and planning tumor volumes (PTV)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Creep and microstructural processes in a low-alloy 2.25%Cr1.6%W steel (ASTM Grade 23)

A low-alloy 2.25%Cr1%Mo steel (ASTM Grade 22) has been greatly improved by the substitution of almost all of the 1%Mo by 1.6%W. The improved material has been standardized as P/T23 steel (Fe–2.25Cr–1.6W–0.25V–0.05Nb–0.07C). The present investigation was conducted on T23 steel in an effort to obtain a more complete description and understanding of the role of the microstructural evolution and deformation processes in high-temperature creep. Constant load tensile creep tests were carried out in an argon atmosphere in the temperature range 500–650 °C at stresses ranging from 50 to 400 MPa. It was found that the diffusion in the matrix lattice is the creep-rate controlling process. The results of an extensive transmission electron microscopy (TEM) analysis programme to investigate microstructure evolution as a function of temperature are described and compared with the thermodynamic calculations using the software package Thermo-Calc. The significant creep-strength drop of T23 steel after long-term creep exposures can be explained by the decrease in dislocation hardening, precipitation hardening and solid solution hardening due to the instability of the microstructure at high temperature. - Highlights: • The constant load creep tests of T23 steel were carried out at 500–650 °C. • The stress exponents of the creep rate correspond to power law (dislocation) creep. • Diffusion in the matrix lattice is the creep-rate controlling process. • The microstructure instability is the main creep degradation process in T23 steel.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2015

A Global Climate Model Agent for High Spatial and Temporal Resolution Data

Fine cell granularity in modern climate models can produce terabytes of data in each snapshot, causing significant I/O overhead. To address this issue, a method of reducing the I/O latency of high-resolution climate models by identifying and selectively outputting regions of interest is presented. Working with a Global Cloud Resolving Model and running with up to 10240 processors on a Cray XE6, this method provides significant I/O bandwidth reduction depending on the frequency of writes and size of the region of interest. The implementation challenges of determining global parameters in a strictly core-localized model and properly formatting output files that only contain subsections of the global grid are addressed, as well as the overall bandwidth impact and benefits of the method. The gains in I/O throughput provided by this method allow dual output rates for high-resolution climate models: a low-frequency global snapshot as well as a high-frequency regional snapshot when events of particular interest occur.

global cloud resolving model↗
DOE OSTI2022

Legacy surface change analyses of the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence for direct comparison to planned NA-22 underground conventional high-explosive experiments (Source Physics Experiment 3 (SPE3) - RV/DC Task 1.3 FY22 Final Report)

Recent work under two previous phases of the NNSA NA-22 Source Physics Experiment (SPE) have shown that underground chemical high-explosive experiments can produce detectable surface changes that differ in spatial extent and vertical magnitude depending on the geologic media at the site (Schultz-Fellenz et al., 2018; 2020; Crawford et al., 2021). Neither of these two prior phases of SPE identified natural earthquake-related surface effects in the same region that occurred at a similar depth as the explosive experiments for direct comparison. While earthquakes can also produce surface changes that are detectable using remote sensing data analyses, it is expected that the pattern and spatial extent of surface changes would vary between earthquakes and explosions. However, no direct-observed surface-change signature comparison between earthquakes and explosions has ever been performed. The SPE Phase 3 Rock Valley/Direct Comparison (RV/DC) program presents a unique opportunity to investigate and characterize co-occurrence of both earthquakes and explosions. In this project, we worked to address five tasks in a workflow, as follows: 1. Identify and obtain existing high-resolution legacy satellite and aerial imagery as close in time before and after the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence to temporally constrain the analyses. 2. Transform these pre-earthquake and post-earthquake datasets into digital elevation models (DEMs) using geospatial analysis software packages (e.g., ArcGIS, Agisoft Metashape, and Google Earth Engine). 3. Perform DEM differencing analyses to assess and quantify earthquake-related changes from the 1993 sequence, and develop map products that visualize these analyses. 4. Use the analyses from (3) to: (a) assess spatial distribution and magnitude of surface changes due to the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence, and (b) determine parameters of forthcoming, planned explosion-related surface change data collection from sensors mounted on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) (e.g., spatial extent of collection, design and density of survey control, sensors to deploy, forward speed and line spacing of UAV flight lines, flight altitude). 5. Develop a summary report on the analyses, including how the analyses define parameters and identify focus areas for any future surface change analytical field campaigns related to the explosive experiment. Analyzing these legacy data and identifying whether they can detect any surface changes related to the earthquake sequence facilitates opportunities for direct signature comparison of surface change from explosions at one location, which has never previously been performed. Comparing the surface change signatures from a co-located and depth-equivalent earthquake and an explosion could help to advance remote sensing event discrimination techniques. This report summarizes the work completed toward this ambitious goal.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

ESGF project plan for ramping down development activities and transition the project and data to a new team

This document summarizes the current software development activities carried by the ESGF team with planned delivery dates before the transition of the project to a new team. The work we started on the publishing, search and retrieval, and the backend for indexing and data management that can be deployed using Kubernetes are planned to be delivered within the next three months; however, this assumes that the current team members will continue to work on the project. The activities are listed in Table 1 by priority and in case we lose team members, development of lower priority tasks can be paused and passed to the new team with its current status. Team members can be re-assigned based on their availability and transition work needed. Table 2 below describe activities necessary to help project transition to the new team. Deadlines for these activities are before October 1 st of 2022 or the completion of a successful transition. Support during the transition period assumes that we will have 3 key ESGF members and the ESGF PI supported at the 50% level or less for the duration of the transition. The level of support is an estimate, and it depends on several factors that cannot be decided at this time. The total cost of the proposed work and support activities for fiscal year 2021 is $1,270K with $230K carry over to fiscal year 2022. The cost for the support work listed in Table 2 is the sum of the two rows “HW support” and “project support, maintenance, and transition efforts”, colored blue, in Table1 which adds up to $720K. This cost is included in the $1,270K cost in table 1.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Modeling the direct sun component in buildings using matrix algebraic approaches: Methods and validation

Simulation tools that enable annual energy performance analysis of optically-complex fenestration systems have been widely adopted by the building industry for use in building design, code development, and the development of rating and certification programs for commercially-available shading and daylighting products. The tools rely on a three-phase matrix operation to compute solar heat gains, using as input low-resolution bidirectional scattering distribution function (BSDF) data (10–15° angular resolution; BSDF data define the angle-dependent behavior of light-scattering materials and systems). Measurement standards and product libraries for BSDF data are undergoing development to support solar heat gain calculations. Simulation of other metrics such as discomfort glare, annual solar exposure, and potentially thermal discomfort, however, require algorithms and BSDF input data that more accurately model the spatial distribution of transmitted and reflected irradiance or illuminance from the sun (0.5° resolution). This study describes such algorithms and input data, then validates the tools (i.e., an interpolation tool for measured BSDF data and the five-phase method) through comparisons with ray-tracing simulations and field monitored data from a full-scale testbed. Simulations of daylight-redirecting films, a micro-louvered screen, and venetian blinds using variable resolution, tensor tree BSDF input data derived from interpolated scanning goniophotometer measurements were shown to agree with field monitored data to within 20% for greater than 75% of the measurement period for illuminance-based performance parameters. The three-phase method delivered significantly less accurate results. We discuss the ramifications of these findings on industry and provide recommendations to increase end user awareness of the current limitations of existing software tools and BSDF product libraries.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Metrics for evaluating tropical cyclones in climate data

This manuscript describes a software suite that can be used for objective evaluation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in gridded climate data. Using cyclone trajectories derived from 6-hourly data, a comprehensive set of metrics is defined to systematically compare and contrast products to one another. In addition to annual TC climatologies, attention is paid to spatial and temporal patterns of storm occurrence and intensity. Assessment can be performed either on the global scale or regional domains. Simple to visualize ‘scorecards’ allow for rapid credibility assessment. We showcase three key findings enabled by this suite. First, we compare the representation of TCs in seven current-generation global reanalyses and conclude that higher resolution models and those with TC-specific assimilation contain more accurate storm climatologies. Second, using a free-running Earth system model (ESM) we find that full basin refinement is required in variable-resolution configurations to adequately simulate North Atlantic TC frequency. Furthermore, upstream refinement over northern Africa offers little benefit in simulating storm occurrence but spatial genesis patterns are improved. Finally, we show that TCs simulated by ESMs can be highly sensitive to individual parameterizations in climate models, with North Atlantic TC metrics varying greatly depending on version of the Morrison-Gettelman microphysics package.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Volumetric Rendering on Wavelet-Based Adaptive Grid

Numerical modeling of physical phenomena frequently involves processes across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. In the last two decades, the advancements in wavelet-based numerical methodologies to solve partial differential equations, combined with the unique properties of wavelet analysis to resolve localized structures of the solution on dynamically adaptive computational meshes, make it feasible to perform large-scale numerical simulations of a variety of physical systems on a dynamically adaptive computational mesh that changes both in space and time. Volumetric visualization of the solution is an essential part of scientific computing, yet the existing volumetric visualization techniques do not take full advantage of multi-resolution wavelet analysis and are not fully tailored for visualization of a compressed solution on the wavelet-based adaptive computational mesh. Our objective is to explore the alternatives for the visualization of time-dependent data on space-time varying adaptive mesh using volume rendering while capitalizing on the available sparse data representation. Two alternative formulations are explored. The first one is based on volumetric ray casting of multi-scale datasets in wavelet space. Rather than working with the wavelets at the finest possible resolution, a partial inverse wavelet transform is performed as a preprocessing step to obtain scaling functions on a uniform grid at a user-prescribed resolution. As a result, a solution in physical space is represented by a superposition of scaling functions on a coarse regular grid and wavelets on an adaptive mesh. An efficient and accurate ray casting algorithm is based just on these coarse scaling functions. Additional details are added during the ray tracing by taking an appropriate number of wavelets into account based on support overlap with the interpolation point, wavelet coefficient magnitude, and other characteristics, such as opacity accumulation (front to back ordering) and deviation from frontal viewing direction. The second approach is based on complementing of wavelet-based adaptive mesh to the traditional Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) mesh. Both algorithms are illustrated and compared to the existing volume visualization software for Rayleigh-Benard thermal convection and electron density data sets in terms of rendering time and visual quality for different data compression of both wavelet-based and AMR adaptive meshes.

Vezolainen, Alexei V.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Combined High Spectral Resolution Lidar and Millimeter Wavelength Radar Measurement of Ice Crystal Precipitation

The goal of this research has been to improve measurements of snowfall using a combination of millimeter-wavelength radar and High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) Observations. Snowflakes are large compared to the 532nm HSRL wavelength and small compared to the 3.2 and 8.6 mm wavelength radars used in this study. This places the particles in the optical scattering regime of the HSRL, where extinction cross-section is proportional to the projected area of the particles, and in the Rayleigh regime for the radar, where the backscatter cross-section is proportional to the mass-squared of the particles. Forming a ratio of the radar measured cross-section to the HSRL measured cross section eliminates any dependence on the number of scattering particles, yielding a quantity proportional to the average mass-squared of the snowflakes over the average area of the flakes. Using simultaneous radar measurements of particle fall velocities, which are dependent particle mass and cross-sectional area it is possible to derive the average mass of the snow flakes, and with the radar measured fall velocities compute the snowfall rate. Since this retrieval requires the optical extinction cross-section we began by considering errors this quantity. The HSRL is particularly good at measuring the backscatter cross-section. In previous studies of snowfall in the high Arctic were able to estimate the extinction cross-section directly as a fixed ratio to the backscatter cross-section. Measurements acquired in the STORMVEX experiment in Colorado showed that this approach was not valid in mid-latitude snowfalls and that direct measurement of the extinction cross-section is required. Attempts to measure the extinction directly uncovered shortcomings in thermal regulation and mechanical stability of the newly deployed DOE HSRL systems. These problems were largely mitigated by modifications installed in both of the DOE systems. We also investigated other sources of error in the HSRL direct measurement of extinction (see appendix II of this report). We also developed improved algorithms to extract extinction from the HSRL data. These have been installed in the standard HSRL data processing software and are now available to all users of HSRL data. Validation of snowfall measurements has proven difficult due to the unreliability of conventional snowfall measurements coupled with the complexity of considering the vast variety of snowflake geometries. It was difficult to tell how well the algorithm’s approach to accommodating differences in snowflakes was working without good measurements for comparison. As a result, we decided to apply this approach to the somewhat simpler, but scientifically important, problem of drizzle measurement. Here the particle shape is known and the conventional measurement are more reliable. These algorithms where successfully applied to drizzle data acquired during the ARM MAGIC study of marine stratus clouds between California and Hawaii (see Appendix I). This technique is likely to become a powerful tool for studying lifetime of the climatically important marine stratus clouds.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2017

Solving Complex Radioactive Decay Chains for Future Assessment and Cleanup Decisions - 17046

In support of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's on-line calculators for risk and dose assessment, a decay chain tool was developed to address the need to understand how radionuclide activity changes with time as the activity measured in the past will be different from current and future levels. When a radionuclide decays, its activity decreases exponentially as a function of time transforming into a different atom - a decay product. The atoms keep transforming to new decay products until they reach a stable state and are no longer radioactive. The series of decay products created to reach this balance is called the decay chain. For radionuclide chains, the daughter products can have significant implications in dosimetry and remediation. Thus, risk assessors evaluating sites with radioactive contamination need to plan for future progeny ingrowth, in addition to sampled radionuclides. These are important considerations for risk quantification during the characterization and cleanup plans, particularly when sampling may have occurred years before the remediation cleanup work begins. If a radionuclide half-life and current activity are known, then hand-calculating the future activity is straightforward. However, calculating the ingrowth of progeny quickly becomes cumbersome for longer chains such as the Thorium-232 decay series. For the more complex chains where many daughters are formed, possibly with multiple branches, this calculation involves solving a complex set of simultaneous differential equations known as the Bateman Equation. The Decay Chain Activity Projection Tool calculates the activity of radionuclides and their progeny as a function of time. This tool currently uses a combination of Perl, JavaScript, Plot.ly, and jQuery to automatically construct the radionuclide decay chains, solve the resulting Bateman Equation, and provide the user with tabular solution output and plots. Additional software may be used as development advances. The risk assessor can then use the data for exposure assessment and cleanup decisions without further costly sampling. The benefits of providing this calculator are to prevent overestimation of risk due to decay of the parent isotope and to avoid underestimation of risk due to ingrowth of progeny more toxic than the parent. Graphs are provided to show the simultaneous decay rates and ingrowth, as well as tabular output at time-point T and all the decay half-life intervals. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-I-02: A Framework to Perform Batch Simulations of Computational Voxel Phantoms to Study Organ Doses in Computed Tomography Using a Commercial Monte Carlo Software Package

Purpose: ImpactMC (CT Imaging, Erlangen, Germany) is a Monte Carlo (MC) software package that offers a GPU enabled, user definable and validated method for 3D dose distribution calculations for radiography and Computed Tomography (CT). ImpactMC, in and of itself, offers limited capabilities to perform batch simulations. The aim of this work was to develop a framework for the batch simulation of absorbed organ dose distributions from CT scans of computational voxel phantoms. Methods: The ICRP 110 adult Reference Male and Reference Female computational voxel phantoms were formatted into compatible input volumes for MC simulations. A Matlab (The MathWorks Inc., Natick, MA) script was written to loop through a user defined set of simulation parameters and 1) generate input files required for the simulation, 2) start the MC simulation, 3) segment the absorbed dose for organs in the simulated dose volume and 4) transfer the organ doses to a database. A demonstration of the framework is made where the glandular breast dose to the adult Reference Female phantom, for a typical Chest CT examination, is investigated. Results: A batch of 48 contiguous simulations was performed with variations in the total collimation and spiral pitch. The demonstration of the framework showed that the glandular dose to the right and left breast will vary depending on the start angle of rotation, total collimation and spiral pitch. Conclusion: The developed framework provides a robust and efficient approach to performing a large number of user defined MC simulations with computational voxel phantoms in CT (minimal user interaction). The resulting organ doses from each simulation can be accessed through a database which greatly increases the ease of analyzing the resulting organ doses. The framework developed in this work provides a valuable resource when investigating different dose optimization strategies in CT.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Respiratory motion management using audio-visual biofeedback for respiratory-gated radiotherapy of synchrotron-based pulsed heavy-ion beam delivery

Purpose: To efficiently deliver respiratory-gated radiation during synchrotron-based pulsed heavy-ion radiotherapy, a novel respiratory guidance method combining a personalized audio-visual biofeedback (BFB) system, breath hold (BH), and synchrotron-based gating was designed to help patients synchronize their respiratory patterns with synchrotron pulses and to overcome typical limitations such as low efficiency, residual motion, and discomfort. Methods: In-house software was developed to acquire body surface marker positions and display BFB, gating signals, and real-time beam profiles on a LED screen. Patients were prompted to perform short BHs or short deep breath holds (SDBH) with the aid of BFB following a personalized standard BH/SDBH (stBH/stSDBH) guiding curve or their own representative BH/SDBH (reBH/reSDBH) guiding curve. A practical simulation was performed for a group of 15 volunteers to evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of this method. Effective dose rates (EDRs), mean absolute errors between the guiding curves and the measured curves, and mean absolute deviations of the measured curves were obtained within 10%–50% duty cycles (DCs) that were synchronized with the synchrotron’s flat-top phase. Results: All maneuvers for an individual volunteer took approximately half an hour, and no one experienced discomfort during the maneuvers. Using the respiratory guidance methods, the magnitude of residual motion was almost ten times less than during nongated irradiation, and increases in the average effective dose rate by factors of 2.39–4.65, 2.39–4.59, 1.73–3.50, and 1.73–3.55 for the stBH, reBH, stSDBH, and reSDBH guiding maneuvers, respectively, were observed in contrast with conventional free breathing-based gated irradiation, depending on the respiratory-gated duty cycle settings. Conclusions: The proposed respiratory guidance method with personalized BFB was confirmed to be feasible in a group of volunteers. Increased effective dose rate and improved overall treatment precision were observed compared to conventional free breathing-based, respiratory-gated irradiation. Because breathing guidance curves could be established based on the respective average respiratory period and amplitude for each patient, it may be easier for patients to cooperate using this technique.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2014

Achieving Robustness to Uncertainty for Financial Decision-making

This report investigates the concept of robustness analysis to support financial decision-making. Financial models, that forecast future stock returns or market conditions, depend on assumptions that might be unwarranted and variables that might exhibit large fluctuations from their last-known values. The analysis of robustness explores these sources of uncertainty, and recommends model settings such that the forecasts used for decision-making are as insensitive as possible to the uncertainty. A proof-of-concept is presented with the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The robustness of model predictions is assessed using info-gap decision theory. Info-gaps are models of uncertainty that express the “distance,” or gap of information, between what is known and what needs to be known in order to support the decision. The analysis yields a description of worst-case stock returns as a function of increasing gaps in our knowledge. The analyst can then decide on the best course of action by trading-off worst-case performance with “risk”, which is how much uncertainty they think needs to be accommodated in the future. The report also discusses the Graphical User Interface, developed using the MATLAB® programming environment, such that the user can control the analysis through an easy-to-navigate interface. Three directions of future work are identified to enhance the present software. First, the code should be re-written using the Python scientific programming software. This change will achieve greater cross-platform compatibility, better portability, allow for a more professional appearance, and render it independent from a commercial license, which MATLAB® requires. Second, a capability should be developed to allow users to quickly implement and analyze their own models. This will facilitate application of the software to the evaluation of proprietary financial models. The third enhancement proposed is to add the ability to evaluate multiple models simultaneously. When two models reflect past data with similar accuracy, the more robust of the two is preferable for decision-making because its predictions are, by definition, less sensitive to the uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Discovering the desirable alleles contributing to the lignocellulosic biomass traits in Saccharum germplasm collections for energy cane improvement

1) The success in crop improvement programs depends largely on the extent of genetic variability available. Germplasm collections assembles all the available genetic resources and are critical for long-term crop improvement. This world sugarcane germplasm collection contains enormous genetic variability for various morphological traits, biomass yield components, adaptation and many quality traits, prospectively imbeds a large number of valuable alleles for biofuel traits such as high biomass yield, quantity and quality of lignocelluloses, stress tolerance, and nutrient use efficiency. The germplasm collection is of little value unless it is characterized and utilized for crop improvement. In this project, we phenotypically and genotypically characterized the sugarcane world germplasm collection (The results were published in two papers already and another two papers are to be published). This data will be made available for public to refer to for germplasm unitization specifically in the sugarcane and energy cane breeding programs. In addition, we are identifying the alleles contributing to the biomass traits in sugarcane germplasm. This part of project is very challenging due to the large genome and highly polyploid level of this crop. We firstly established a high throughput sugarcane genotyping pipeline in the genome and bioinformatics era (a paper is published in 2016). We identified and modified a software for genome-wide association analysis of polyploid species. The results of the alleles associated to the biomass traits will be published soon, which will help the scientific community understand the genetic makeup of the biomass components of sugarcane. Molecular breeders can develop markers for marker assisted selection of biomass traits improvement. Further, the development and release of new energy cane cultivars through this project not only improved genetic diversity but also improved dry biomass yields and resistance to diseases. These new cultivars were tested on marginal soils in Florida and showed very promising yield potential that is important for the successful use of energy cane as a dedicated feedstock for lignocellulosic ethanol production. 2) Multiple techniques at different project progress stages were utilized. For example, for the whole world germplasm accession genotyping, a cheap widely used SSR marker genotyping platform was utilized due to the large number of samples (over thousand). But the throughput of this technique is low in generating data points. However, the purpose the genotyping is to form a core collection for further high throughput genotyping. Thus the results from the SSR genotyping was quite good enough to generated the core collection. To genotype the few hundred core collection accessions, an target enrichment sequencing technology was used, which is not only high throughput in generating large number of genotyping data, but also has the candidate genes targeted to genotyping. The data generated would be sufficient in identifying the alleles contributing to the traits of interests. All the techniques used in this project are effective though extensive time was invested specifically for establish the pipeline in the experimental design, data analysis, and different approach comparison. 3) the research can benefit to the public in polyploid genotyping and new and cost efficient genotyping platform development

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Advanced Solar and Load Forecasting Incorporating HD Sky Imaging: BNL Phase II Activities (Final Report)

Over the last ten years, lower costs and government incentives for rooftop and utility scale solar photovoltaic (PV) systems have led to a rapid growth in the amount of power generated from this renewable energy source. For example, the cumulative PV generating capacity of 1,160 MW in New York State at the end of 2018 represents a growth of more than 4,000% over the past seven years and almost 400% over the past five years. But increased dependence on this inherently variable energy source introduces the need to anticipate, i.e., forecast, changes in energy production and manage them appropriately. Utilities and grid operators can then use this forecast information to balance changes and maintain stability of the electric grid by adding additional sources or diverting excess supplies for sale or storage, as needed. Current techniques based on persistence modeling are not accurate enough to provide reliable forecasts. With support from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technology Office (DOE SETO) and the New York Power Authority (NYPA), Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) formed a collaborative team to provide reliable forecasting over a range of time intervals. In addition, the forecasting area was scaled up to about 50 km2, a factor of 20 times larger than previously achieved, so that available solar irradiance could be forecast throughout an entire region including both large generating facilities and distributed rooftop solar arrays. In its role, BNL developed a technology for predicting changes in available solar energy from zero to 30 minutes ahead. This “nowcasting” approach uses inexpensive, off-the-shelf, high definition (HD) imagers with custom software to identify and track the movement of approaching clouds and predict their impact on available solar irradiance. The BNL Nowcasting model improves forecasting accuracy by 20 to 50% over current techniques. Forecasting reliability for low clouds (worst case scenario since they move over solar panels more rapidly than high clouds) was calculated to be 95% accurate for forecast periods of five minute ahead. Reliability decreases with longer forecast time intervals and was calculated to be about 80% for 10 minute forecasts, and about 70% for 20 minutes ahead. Clouds were still reliably tracked by the imager network at 60% accuracy for forecast lead times up to about 30 minutes ahead, and this was determined to be the practical nowcasting limit for low clouds in a network of this scale. This work represents the second phase of a multi-phase effort to develop and deploy solar forecasting at a regional scale so that contributions from distributed rooftop solar resources can be forecast along with solar generating facilities, giving utilities and stakeholders an accurate assessment of future energy production. Additional work is planned to operate the forecasting network in an area upstate New York to assess system reliability under diverse meteorological conditions and to monitor system performance over a full range of seasonal variability.

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