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NASA NTRS2008

U.S. Eastern Continental Shelf Carbon Cycling (USECoS): Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Analysis

Although the oceans play a major role in the uptake of fossil fuel CO2 from the atmosphere, there is much debate about the contribution from continental shelves, since many key shelf fluxes are not yet well quantified: the exchange of carbon across the land-ocean and shelf-slope interfaces, air-sea exchange of CO2, burial, and biological processes including productivity. Our goal is to quantify these carbon fluxes along the eastern U.S. coast using models quantitatively verified by comparison to observations, and to establish a framework for predicting how these fluxes may be modified as a result of climate and land use change. Our research questions build on those addressed with previous NASA funding for the USECoS (U.S. Eastern Continental Shelf Carbon Cycling) project. We have developed a coupled biogeochemical ocean circulation model configured for this study region and have extensively evaluated this model with both in situ and remotely-sensed data. Results indicate that to further reduce uncertainties in the shelf component of the global carbon cycle, future efforts must be directed towards 1) increasing the resolution of the physical model via nesting and 2) making refinements to the biogeochemical model and quantitatively evaluating these via the assimilation of biogeochemical data (in situ and remotely-sensed). These model improvements are essential for better understanding and reducing estimates of uncertainties in current and future carbon transformations and cycling in continental shelf systems. Our approach and science questions are particularly germane to the carbon cycle science goals of the NASA Earth Science Research Program as well as the U.S. Climate Change Research Program and the North American Carbon Program. Our interdisciplinary research team consists of scientists who have expertise in the physics and biogeochemistry of the U.S. eastern continental shelf, remote-sensing data analysis and data assimilative numerical models.

Mannino, Antonio↗
NASA NTRS2008

Utilizing Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2005) to Evaluate Entry Probe Mission Sites

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2005) is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. An overview is presented of Mars-GRAM 2005 and its new features. The "auxiliary profile" option is one new feature of Mars-GRAM 2005. This option uses an input file of temperature and density versus altitude to replace the mean atmospheric values from Mars-GRAM's conventional (General Circulation Model) climatology. Any source of data or alternate model output can be used to generate an auxiliary profile. Auxiliary profiles for this study were produced from mesoscale model output (Southwest Research Institute's Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) model and Oregon State University's Mars mesoscale model (MMM5) model) and a global Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) database. The global TES database has been specifically generated for purposes of making Mars-GRAM auxiliary profiles. This data base contains averages and standard deviations of temperature, density, and thermal wind components, averaged over 5-by-5 degree latitude-longitude bins and 15 degree Ls bins, for each of three Mars years of TES nadir data. The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) sites are used as a sample of how Mars-GRAM' could be a valuable tool for planning of future Mars entry probe missions. Results are presented using auxiliary profiles produced from the mesoscale model output and TES observed data for candidate MSL landing sites. Input parameters rpscale (for density perturbations) and rwscale (for wind perturbations) can be used to "recalibrate" Mars-GRAM perturbation magnitudes to better replicate observed or mesoscale model variability.

Justh, Hilary L.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Earth System Model Parameter Adjustment Using a Green's Functions Approach

We demonstrate the practicality and effectiveness of using a Green's functions estimation approach for adjusting uncertain parameters in an Earth system model (ESM). This estimation approach has previously been applied to an intermediate-complexity climate model and to individual ESM components, e.g., ocean, sea ice, or carbon cycle components. Here, the Green's functions approach is applied to a state-of-the-art ESM that comprises a global atmosphere/land configuration of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) coupled to an ocean and sea ice configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm). Horizontal grid spacing is approximately 110 km for GEOS and 37–110 km for MITgcm. In addition to the reference GEOS-MITgcm simulation, we carried out a series of model sensitivity experiments, in which 20 uncertain parameters are perturbed. These “control” parameters can be used to adjust sea ice, microphysics, turbulence, radiation, and surface schemes in the coupled simulation. We defined eight observational targets: sea ice fraction, net surface shortwave radiation, downward longwave radiation, near-surface temperature, sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and ocean temperature and salinity at 300 m. We applied the Green's functions approach to optimize the values of the 20 control parameters so as to minimize a weighted least-squares distance between the model and the eight observational targets. The new experiment with the optimized parameters resulted in a total cost reduction of 9 % relative to a simulation that had already been adjusted using other methods. The optimized experiment attained a balanced cost reduction over most of the observational targets. We also report on results from a set of sensitivity experiments that are not used in the final optimized simulation but helped explore options and guided the optimization process. These experiments include an assessment of sensitivity to the number of control parameters and to the selection of observational targets and weights in the cost function. Based on these sensitivity experiments, we selected a specific definition for the cost function. The sensitivity experiments also revealed a decreasing overall cost as the number of control variables was increased. In summary, we recommend using the Green's functions estimation approach as an additional fine-tuning step in the model development process. The method is not a replacement for modelers' experience in choosing and adjusting sensitive model parameters. Instead, it is an additional practical and effective tool for carrying out final adjustments of uncertain ESM parameters.

Green's Function↗
NASA NTRS2008

Applications of Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2005) Supporting Mission Site Selection for Mars Science Laboratory

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2005) is an engineering level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. An overview is presented of Mars-GRAM 2005 and its new features. One new feature of Mars-GRAM 2005 is the 'auxiliary profile' option. In this option, an input file of temperature and density versus altitude is used to replace mean atmospheric values from Mars-GRAM's conventional (General Circulation Model) climatology. An auxiliary profile can be generated from any source of data or alternate model output. Auxiliary profiles for this study were produced from mesoscale model output (Southwest Research Institute's Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) model and Oregon State University's Mars mesoscale model (MMM5)model) and a global Thermal Emission Spectrometer(TES) database. The global TES database has been specifically generated for purposes of making Mars-GRAM auxiliary profiles. This data base contains averages and standard deviations of temperature, density, and thermal wind components,averaged over 5-by-5 degree latitude-longitude bins and 15 degree L(s) bins, for each of three Mars years of TES nadir data. Results are presented using auxiliary profiles produced from the mesoscale model output and TES observed data for candidate Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) landing sites. Input parameters rpscale (for density perturbations) and rwscale (for wind perturbations) can be used to "recalibrate" Mars-GRAM perturbation magnitudes to better replicate observed or mesoscale model variability.

Justh, Hilary L.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The impact of clouds on the shortwave radiation budget of the surface-atmosphere system - Interfacing measurements and models

Two datasets have been combined to demonstrate how the availability of more comprehensive datasets could serve to elucidate the shortwave radiative impact of clouds on both the atmospheric column and the surface. These datasets consist of two measurements of net downward shortwave radiation: one of near-surface measurements made at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory tower, and the other of collocated top-of-the-atmosphere measurements from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. Output from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts General Circulation Model also has been used as an aid in interpreting the data, while the data have in turn been employed to validate the model's shortwave radiation code as it pertains to cloud radiation properties. Combined, the datasets and model demonstrate a strategy for determining under what conditions the shortwave radiative impact of clouds leads to a heating or cooling of the atmospheric column. The datasets also show, in terms of a linear slope-offset algorithm for retrieving the net downward shortwave radiation at the surface from satellite measurements, that the clouds present during this study produced a modest negative bias in the retrieved surface flux relative to that inferred from a clear-sky algorithm.

Cess, Robert D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Response of Indian summer monsoon rainfall to remote carbonaceous aerosols at short time scales: Teleconnections and feedbacks

The effect of atmospheric aerosols on Indian monsoon is one of the scientifically challenging and societally relevant research issues of the recent decades. Past studies have derived inferences mostly based on local emissions and their impacts thereupon. However, more recent studies have shown that the remote effects driven by aerosols elsewhere could also impact the monsoon system on different time scales. Our study using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) shows that regional carbonaceous aerosol emissions (from North America, Europe and North Africa and Asia) can significantly alter Indian summer monsoon rainfall. It is interesting to note that the effects of remote aerosols are larger and bear a resemblance to each other in comparison to local emissions. Here, our study reveals that the modulation of large-scale circulation induced by regional warming by carbonaceous aerosols leads to teleconnection patterns around the globe, thereby changing the precipitation depending on the phase of these disturbances. We also find that the effects of remote carbonaceous aerosols are strengthened by modulation/feedback through natural dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea with subsequent increase in rainfall over India. The results signify that the changes in the aerosol emissions in one region could lead to the change in precipitation over other regions through global teleconnection and associated feedbacks induced by regional atmospheric warming and/or cooling.

Carbonaceous aerosols↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Large Eddy Simulations of Upper-Ocean Turbulence Across the Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue

Turbulence in the equatorial Pacific cold tongue plays multiple roles in the sea-surface temperature budget. However, observations of turbulence are limited to a handful of field experiments lasting from a few days to one month at 0 N , 140 W, and the key turbulent fluxes can only be inferred. Although explicit simulations of turbulence resolve these fluxes, the required large eddy simulations (LES) are costly and thus also limited to a few weeks. A two-fold hypothesis motivates this contribution to the PUMP pre-field modelling experiments in support of TPOS: 1) that there exist useful relationships between the surface wind, wave, and buoyancy forcing, oceanic shear and stratification, and turbulent mixing, but 2) these relationships differ between regions of equatorial dynamics (f~0) and higher latitudes, such that the state space is insufficiently sampled to understand these relationships and represent them in ocean general circulation models (OGCM). To address the lack of observations, we simulated 35 continuous days of upper ocean turbulence using LES during October-November 1985 at sites in two regions (70 days in total) of the cold tongue: 0 N, 140 W and 3 N, 140 W. The model reproduces many features of the observed turbulence at 0,140W, including the “deep-cycle” observed by Gregg et al. (1985) Nature and the turbulent pulses every few hours during the night and in the early morning. Furthermore, the results at 3 N support the hypothesis advanced by Cherian et al. (2021) JPO that strong, but intermittent deep-cycle turbulence is observed to the north of the equator in the presence of strong shear associated with Tropical Instability Waves. Comparisons with the K-profile parameterization (KPP) scheme show that additional tuning of the KPP parameters can reduce differences between the turbulent fluxes produced by KPP and LES at both sites. The results will suggest modifications to OGCMs and already emphasize the need for a more extensive measurements of vertical profiles of shear, stratification and turbulent mixing to reveal the spatio-temporal structure of turbulence and how it relates to forcing, shear and stratification across the equatorial Pacific Cold tongue.

Large Eddy Simulations↗
NASA NTRS1993

The Impact of Clouds on the Shortwave Radiation Budget of the Surface-Atmosphere System: Interfacing Measurements and Models

Two datasets have been combined to demonstrate how the availability of more comprehensive datasets could serve to elucidate the shortwave radiative impact of clouds on both the atmospheric column and the surface. These datasets consist of two measurements of net downward shortwave radiation: one of near-surface measurements made at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory tower, and the other of collocated top-of-the-atmosphere measurements from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. Output from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts General Circulation Model also has been used as an aid in interpreting the data, while the data have in turn been employed to validate the model's shortwave radiation code as it pertains to cloud radiation properties. Combined, the datasets and model demonstrate a strategy for determining under what conditions the shortwave radiative impact of clouds leads to a heating or cooling of the atmospheric column. The datasets also show, in terms of a linear slope-offset algorithm for retrieving the net downward shortwave radiation at the surface from satellite measurements, that the clouds present during this study produced a modest negative bias in the retrieved surface flux relative to that inferred from a clear-sky algorithm.

Cess, Robert D.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Ocean Heat and Carbon Uptake in Transient Climate Change: Identifying Model Uncertainty

Global warming on decadal and centennial timescales is mediated and ameliorated by the oceansequestering heat and carbon into its interior. Transient climate change is a function of the efficiency by whichanthropogenic heat and carbon are transported away from the surface into the ocean interior (Hansen et al. 1985).Gregory and Mitchell (1997) and Raper et al. (2002) were the first to identify the importance of the ocean heat uptakeefficiency in transient climate change. Observational estimates (Schwartz 2012) and inferences from coupledatmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; Gregory and Forster 2008; Marotzke et al. 2015), suggest thatocean heat uptake efficiency on decadal timescales lies in the range 0.5-1.5 W/sq m/K and is thus comparable to theclimate feedback parameter (Murphy et al. 2009). Moreover, the ocean not only plays a key role in setting the timing ofwarming but also its regional patterns (Marshall et al. 2014), which is crucial to our understanding of regional climate,carbon and heat uptake, and sea-level change. This short communication is based on a presentation given by A.Romanou at a recent workshop, Oceans Carbon and Heat Uptake: Uncertainties and Metrics, co-hosted by US CLIVARand OCB. As briefly reviewed below, we have incomplete but growing knowledge of how ocean models used in climatechange projections sequester heat and carbon into the interior. To understand and thence reduce errors and biases inthe ocean component of coupled models, as well as elucidate the key mechanisms at work, in the final section we outlinea proposed model intercomparison project named FAFMIP. In FAFMIP, coupled integrations would be carried out withprescribed overrides of wind stress and freshwater and heat fluxes acting at the sea surface.

periodic variations↗
NASA NTRS2017

The North Pacific Summer Jet and Climate Extremes over North America: Mechanisms and Model Biases

The North Pacific summer jet (NPSJ) plays a critical role as a waveguide for weather systems and other sub-seasonal Rossby waves entering North America and therefore has a controlling influence on the warm season weather and climate extremes over much of the continent. In particular, much of the warm season precipitation that occurs over the central United States depends on subseasonal transients that are able to tap moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as they propagate across the continent. The GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), like many AGCMs, is deficient in the simulation of the NPSJ. It is shown that the deficiency is composed of: 1) a stunted jet in which the strongest winds are confined to the Asian continent, failing to extend across the North Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska as observed, and 2) a zonally symmetric poleward shift in the jet. These biases combine to impede the eastward propagation of the weather systems into the continent (the stunted jet), and deprive those systems that do enter the continent access to the moisture from the Gulf (the northward shift), leading to a dry bias over the central US. It is shown that the stunted jet bias is the result of too strong heating that occurs just south of the jet core over and near Tibet. Furthermore, it is shown that the poleward shift of the NPSJ can be corrected in the current GEOS-5 AGCM by increasing the vertical resolution. The implications of these results for improving warm season forecasts of extreme events will be discussed.

NPS↗
NASA NTRS1983

A program of research in environmental modeling

A theoretical framework for the interpretation of satellite measurements of stratospheric temperature and trace gases is provided. This problem is quite complicated since the distributions of trace gases are dependent on dynamics and photochemistry. Therefore, the problem was attacked with models employing varying degrees of photochemical and dynamical complexity. The relationship between dynamics and trace gas transport and wave transience, dissipation and critical levels and the net (permanent) transport of trace gases, the role of photochemistry in trace gas transport, photochemistry and dynamics and altering the mean-zonal distribution of stratospheric ozone, and approximations to simplify the interpretation of observations and General Circulation Models are discussed.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1993

Session on modeling of radiative transfer processes

The session on modeling of radiative transfer processes is reviewed. Six critical issues surfaced in the discussion concerning scale-interactive radiative processes relevent to the mesoscale convective systems (MCS's). These issues are the need to expand basic knowledge of how MCS's influence climate through extensive cloud shields and increased humidity in the upper troposphere; to improve radiation parameterizations used in mesoscale and General Circulation Model (GCM) models; to improve our basic understanding of the influence of radiation on MCS dynamics due to diabatic heating, production of condensate, and vertical and horizontal heat fluxes; to quantify our understanding of radiative impacts of MCS's on the surface and free atmosphere energy budgets; to quantify and identify radiative and microphysical processes important in the evolution of MCS's; and to improve the capability to remotely sense MCS radiative properties from space and ground-based systems.

Flatau, Piotr↗
NASA NTRS2012

Coupling Mars' Dust and Water Cycles: Effects on Dust Lifting Vigor, Spatial Extent and Seasonality

The dust cycle is an important component of Mars' current climate system. Airborne dust affects the radiative balance of the atmosphere, thus greatly influencing the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere. Dust raising events on Mars occur at spatial scales ranging from meters to planet-wide. Although the occurrence and season of large regional and global dust storms are highly variable from one year to the next, there are many features of the dust cycle that occur year after year. Generally, a low-level dust haze is maintained during northern spring and summer, while elevated levels of atmospheric dust occur during northern autumn and winter. During years without global-scale dust storms, two peaks in total dust loading were observed by MGS/TES: one peak occurred before northern winter solstice at Ls 200-240, and one peak occurred after northern winter solstice at L(sub s) 305-340. These maxima in dust loading are thought to be associated with transient eddy activity in the northern hemisphere, which has been observed to maximize pre- and post-solstice. Interactive dust cycle studies with Mars General Circulation Models (MGCMs) have included the lifting, transport, and sedimentation of radiatively active dust. Although the predicted global dust loadings from these simulations capture some aspects of the observed dust cycle, there are marked differences between the simulated and observed dust cycles. Most notably, the maximum dust loading is robustly predicted by models to occur near northern winter solstice and is due to dust lifting associated with down slope flows on the flanks of the Hellas basin. Thus far, models have had difficulty simulating the observed pre- and post- solstice peaks in dust loading. Interactive dust cycle studies typically have not included the formation of water ice clouds or their radiative effects. Water ice clouds can influence the dust cycle by scavenging dust from atmosphere and by interacting with solar and infrared radiation, thereby modifying the thermal structure of the atmosphere and its circulation. Results presented in other papers at this workshop show that including the radiative effects of water ice clouds greatly influence the water cycle and the vigor of weather systems in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Our goal is to investigate the effects of fully coupling the dust and water cycles on the dust cycle. We show that including water ice clouds and their radiative effects greatly affect the magnitude, spatial extent and seasonality of dust lifting and the season of maximum atmospheric dust loading.

Kahre, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS2020

The Impact of Planetary Rotation Rate on the Reflectance and Thermal Emission Spectrum of Terrestrial Exoplanets around Sunlike Stars

Robust atmospheric and radiative transfer modeling will be required to properly interpret reflected-light and thermal emission spectra of terrestrial exoplanets. This will help break observational degeneracies between the numerous atmospheric, planetary, and stellar factors that drive planetary climate. Here, we simulate the climates of earthlike worlds around the Sun with increasingly slow rotation periods, from earthlike to fully Sun-synchronous, using the ROCKE-3D general circulation model. We then provide these results as input to the Spectral Planet Model, which employs the Spectral Mapping Atmospheric Radiative Transfer model to simulate the spectra of a planet as it would be observed from a future space-based telescope. We find that the primary observable effects of slowing planetary rotation rate are the altered cloud distributions, altitudes, and opacities that subsequently drive many changes to the spectra by altering the absorption band depths of biologically relevant gas species(e.g.,HO2,O2, andO3). We also identify a potentially diagnostic feature of synchronously rotating worlds in mid-infraredHO2absorption/emission lines.

Exoplanet atmospheres↗
DOE OSTI2024

Agent-Based Model of Combined Community- and Jail-Based Take-Home Naloxone Distribution

Importance Opioid-related overdose accounts for almost 80 000 deaths annually across the US. People who use drugs leaving jails are at particularly high risk for opioid-related overdose and may benefit from take-home naloxone (THN) distribution. Objective To estimate the population impact of THN distribution at jail release to reverse opioid-related overdose among people with opioid use disorders. Design, Setting, and Participants This study developed the agent-based Justice-Community Circulation Model (JCCM) to model a synthetic population of individuals with and without a history of opioid use. Epidemiological data from 2014 to 2020 for Cook County, Illinois, were used to identify parameters pertinent to the synthetic population. Twenty-seven experimental scenarios were examined to capture diverse strategies of THN distribution and use. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify critical mediating and moderating variables associated with population impact and a proxy metric for cost-effectiveness (ie, the direct costs of THN kits distributed per death averted). Data were analyzed between February 2022 and March 2024. Intervention Modeled interventions included 3 THN distribution channels: community facilities and practitioners; jail, at release; and social network or peers of persons released from jail. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was the percentage of opioid-related overdose deaths averted with THN in the modeled population relative to a baseline scenario with no intervention. Results Take-home naloxone distribution at jail release had the highest median (IQR) percentage of averted deaths at 11.70% (6.57%-15.75%). The probability of bystander presence at an opioid overdose showed the greatest proportional contribution (27.15%) to the variance in deaths averted in persons released from jail. The estimated costs of distributed THN kits were less than $\$$15 000 per averted death in all 27 scenarios. Conclusions and Relevance This study found that THN distribution at jail release is an economical and feasible approach to substantially reducing opioid-related overdose mortality. Training and preparation of proficient and willing bystanders are central factors in reaching the full potential of this intervention.

Tatara, Eric [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), A↗
DOE OSTI2022

Precipitation in Northeast Mexico Primarily Controlled by the Relative Warming of Atlantic SSTs

Abstract Reconstructing hydroclimate over the Common Era is essential for understanding the dominant mechanisms of precipitation change and improving climate model projections, which currently suggest Northeast Mexico will become drier in the future. Tree‐ring reconstructions have suggested regional rainfall is primarily controlled by Pacific sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs). However, tree ring records tend to reflect winter‐spring rainfall, and thus may not accurately record total annual precipitation. Using the first multiproxy speleothem record spanning the last millennium, combined with results from an atmospheric general circulation model, we demonstrate mean annual rainfall in Northeast Mexico is highly sensitive to Atlantic SST variability. Our findings suggest future precipitation in Northeast Mexico is more dependent upon the warming of Tropical Atlantic SSTs relative to the Tropical Pacific.

Wright, Kevin T.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Biophysical model of eelgrass and water quality in Coos Bay, OR shows greater mitigation potential for ocean acidification than hypoxia

Seagrass beds provide important ecosystem services and are valued, in part, for their potential to mediate stressors such as ocean acidification and hypoxia (OAH) for sensitive species. However, the susceptibility of seagrasses to anthropogenic impacts and recent declines motivate the need to better understand the drivers of seagrass and the water quality consequences that occur with variation in seagrass abundance. To meet this need, we leveraged existing monitoring data (water quality and seagrass), hydrodynamic circulation model, and biogeochemical model framework with seagrass submodel, to produce a biophysical model of Coos Bay estuary, Oregon, U.S. The model includes biogeochemical processes involving water quality, plankton, seagrass, and sediment-water interactions. Ecosystem models like this are useful for evaluating complex estuarine systems because they allow us to extend our understanding of system dynamics beyond existing observations and perform experiments to identify the processes driving observed patterns. We used the biophysical model of Coos Bay to evaluate the dynamics of water quality and native eelgrass (Zostera marina) under three eelgrass abundance scenarios (zero eelgrass, current extent, and maximum observed extent) to elucidate the relationship between eelgrass and OAH. Including eelgrass in the Coos Bay model produced results that more closely resembled water quality observations - dissolved oxygen (DO) and pH were more dynamic in simulations with eelgrass, often having both higher highs and lower lows. While there were some areas of the estuary where DO improved with the addition of eelgrass to the model there was overall a small net increase in harmful DO conditions (based on a salmon physiological threshold). In contrast, ocean acidification conditions, pH and calcium carbonate saturation state for aragonite (Ω), were improved (based on oyster requirements) with the addition of eelgrass - although the magnitude of improvement differed seasonally and spatially. Our new model represents a useful tool - one which accounts for and controls the relevant physical and biogeochemical processes - to evaluate conditions that confer resilience or enhance vulnerability to OAH in an important Pacific Northwest coastal estuary and results can inform the OAH-related dynamics occurring in other eastern boundary current estuaries.

FVCOM-ICM↗
NASA NTRS2007

MODIS Aerosol Observations used to Constrain Dust Distributions and Lifecycle in the NASA GEOS-5 Model

Approximately 240 Tg of mineral dust aerosol are transported annually from Saharan Africa to the Atlantic Ocean. Dust affects the Earth radiation budget, and plays direct (through scattering and absorption of radiation) and indirect (through modification of cloud properties and environment) roles in climate. Deposition of dust to the surface provides an important nutrient source to terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems. Dust is additionally a contributor to adverse air quality. Among the tools toward understanding the lifecycle and impacts of mineral dust aerosols are numerical models. Important constraints on these models come from quantitative satellite observations, like those from the space-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). In particular, Kauhan et al. [2005] used MODIS aerosol observations to infer transport and deposition fluxes of Saharan dust over the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Amazonian basins. Those observations are used here to constrain the transport of dust and its interannual variability simulated in the NASA GEOS-5 general circulation model and data assimilation system. Significant uncertainty exists in the MODIS-derived fluxes, however, due to uncertainty in the wind fields provided by meteorological analyses in this region. That same uncertainty in the wind fields is manifest in our GEOS-5 simulations of dust distributions. Here we use MODIS observations to investigate the seasonality and location of the Saharan dust plume and explore through sensitivity analysis of our model the meteorological controls on the dust distribution, including dust direct radiative effects and sub-gridscale source and sink processes.

Colarco, P.↗