Pattern recognition. v- samp - a computer program for estimating surface area from contour maps
Fortran computer program for computing linear approximation of surface area for any given portion of digitized contour map
SURFACE↗
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Results for “linear estimation”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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On the state estimation of structures with second order observers
The use of the linear quadratic regulator control synthesis techniques implies the availability of full state feedback. For vibration control of structures, usually only a limited number of states are measured from which an observer model reconstructs the full state. This paper shows that using second-order observers is a viable technique for reconstructing the unmeasured states of structures under mildly restrictive conditions. Moreover, the computational advantages of the second-order observer, as compared to a first-order observer, indicate that significantly larger observer models may be utilized. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the performance of second-order observers. The implications of second-order observers in the development of the control/structures interaction technology is discussed.
Belvin, W. Keith↗
Effect of mean load on the non-linear behavior of spur gear noise source
An analytical technique for estimating noise generation by spur-gear pairs with backlash is developed using the results obtained by Comparin and Singh (1989). The derivation of the governing equations is outlined, and numerical results for sample problems are presented in graphs. Good agreement with published experimental data (Munro, 1962) is demonstrated.
Kahraman, Ahmet↗
New Probe of the High- z Baryon Acoustic Oscillation Scale: BAO Tomography with CMB × LIM -Nulling Convergence
Standard rulers such as the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) scale serve as workhorses for precision tests of cosmology, enabling distance measurements that probe the geometry and expansion history of our Universe. Aside from BAO measurements from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), most standard ruler techniques operate at relatively low redshifts and depend on biased tracers of the matter density field. In a companion paper, we explored the scientific reach of nulling estimators, where CMB lensing convergence maps are cross-correlated with linear combinations of similar maps from line intensity mapping (LIM) to precisely null out the low-redshift contributions to CMB lensing. We showed that nulling estimators can be used to constrain the high redshift matter power spectrum and showed that this spectrum exhibits discernible BAO features. Here we propose using these features as a standard ruler at high redshifts that does not rely on biased tracers. Forecasting such a measurement at z ~ 5, we find that next-generation instruments will be able to constrain the BAO scale to 7.2% precision, while our futuristic observing scenario can constrain the BAO scale to 4% precision. In conclusion, this constitutes a fundamentally new kind of BAO measurement during early epochs in our cosmic history.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Predicting Flow in Fracture Networks With Quantum Algorithms
Uncertainty quantification plays a crucial role in the modeling of subsurface flow. For instance, uncertainties in the properties of geologic fracture networks significantly impact flow, requiring numerous simulations to accurately estimate quantities of interest. However, each simulation is computationally expensive because it requires solving a large linear system to capture features that involve both small and large fractures. An example is in percolation, where the interaction of many small fractures (which cumulatively can have a large surface area) with the rock matrix must be modeled precisely. Quantum computing is an emerging tool with the potential to address this issue. Quantum algorithms offer a significant speedup in solving linear systems, achieving efficiencies that are challenging to match with classical approaches. These classical approaches include direct solvers, such as LU decomposition, and iterative methods, notably preconditioned conjugate gradient, commonly used in subsurface modeling to solve large sparse systems. However, applying quantum algorithms to geologic fracture flow requires careful attention to algorithmic and problem-specific constraints to fully realize this quantum advantage. In this work we describe a quantum algorithm for generalized Monte Carlo applications with a quadratic speedup over the classical approaches which can be combined with the quantum speedup, currently under investigation, for solving quantum linear systems for subsurface flow. We show that for quantum algorithms the computational cost of estimating a quantity of interest for a statistical ensemble of networks is roughly the same as that of a single realization, essentially implying that one can get uncertainty quantification for free.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Dynamic Power Network State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements
The operation of distribution networks is becoming increasingly volatile, due to fast variations of renewables and, hence, net-loading conditions. To perform a reliable state estimation under these conditions, this paper considers the case where measurements from meters, phasor measurement units, and distributed energy resources are collected and processed in real time to produce estimates of the state at a fast time scale. Streams of measurements collected in real time and at heterogenous rates render the underlying processing asynchronous, and poses severe strains on workhorse state estimation algorithms. In this work, a real-time state estimation algorithm is proposed, where data are processed on the fly. Starting from a regularized least-squares model, and leveraging appropriate linear models, the proposed scheme boils down to a linear dynamical system where the state is updated based on the previous estimate and on the measurement gathered from a few available sensors. The estimation error is shown to be always bounded under mild condition. Numerical simulations are provided to corroborate the analytical findings.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Dynamic Power Network State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements: Preprint
The operation of distribution networks is becoming increasingly volatile, due to fast variations of renewables and, hence, net-loading conditions. To perform a reliable state estimation under these conditions, this paper considers the case where measurements from meters, phasor measurement units, and distributed energy resources are collected and processed in real time to produce estimates of the state at a fast time scale. Streams of measurements collected in real time and at heterogenous rates render the underlying processing asynchronous, and poses severe strains on workhorse state estimation algorithms. In this work, a real-time state estimation algorithm is proposed, where data are processed on the fly. Starting from a regularized least-squares model, and leveraging appropriate linear models, the proposed scheme boils down to a linear dynamical system where the state is updated based on the previous estimate and on the measurement gathered from a few available sensors. The estimation error is shown to be always bounded under mild condition. Numerical simulations are provided to corroborate the analytical findings.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
On Time Delay Margin Estimation for Adaptive Control and Optimal Control Modification
This paper presents methods for estimating time delay margin for adaptive control of input delay systems with almost linear structured uncertainty. The bounded linear stability analysis method seeks to represent an adaptive law by a locally bounded linear approximation within a small time window. The time delay margin of this input delay system represents a local stability measure and is computed analytically by three methods: Pade approximation, Lyapunov-Krasovskii method, and the matrix measure method. These methods are applied to the standard model-reference adaptive control, s-modification adaptive law, and optimal control modification adaptive law. The windowing analysis results in non-unique estimates of the time delay margin since it is dependent on the length of a time window and parameters which vary from one time window to the next. The optimal control modification adaptive law overcomes this limitation in that, as the adaptive gain tends to infinity and if the matched uncertainty is linear, then the closed-loop input delay system tends to a LTI system. A lower bound of the time delay margin of this system can then be estimated uniquely without the need for the windowing analysis. Simulation results demonstrates the feasibility of the bounded linear stability method for time delay margin estimation.
Nguyen, Nhan T.↗
Unscented Kalman Filter-based Unbiased Minimum-Variance Estimation for Nonlinear Systems with Unknown Inputs
This paper proposes an unscented Kalman filter (UKF)-based unbiased minimum-variance estimation (UMV) method for the nonlinear system with unknown inputs. By utilizing the statistical linerization, the nonlinear system and measurement functions are transformed into a “linear-like” regression form. The latter preserves the nonlinearity of the system and the measurement models. To this end, the unknown inputs can be estimated by the weighted least-squares. This “linear-like” regression form also allows us to resort to the UMV state estimation framework for the development of new nonlinear filter to handle unknown inputs. Specifically, two approaches have been developed: 1) given the estimated inputs, we derive a filter by minimizing the trace of the state error covariance matrix; 2) without input estimation, we derive the filter by minimizing the trace of the state error covariance matrix subject to a constraint imposed on the gain matrix. We prove that these two approaches provide the same results. Numerical results validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Unscented Kalman filter, unbiased minimumvariance ↗
Reduced state feedback gain computation
Because application of conventional optimal linear regulator theory to flight controller design requires the capability of measuring and/or estimating the entire state vector, it is of interest to consider procedures for computing controls which are restricted to be linear feedback functions of a lower dimensional output vector and which take into account the presence of measurement noise and process uncertainty. Therefore, a stochastic linear model that was developed is presented which accounts for aircraft parameter and initial uncertainty, measurement noise, turbulence, pilot command and a restricted number of measurable outputs. Optimization with respect to the corresponding output feedback gains was performed for both finite and infinite time performance indices without gradient computation by using Zangwill's modification of a procedure originally proposed by Powell. Results using a seventh order process show the proposed procedures to be very effective.
Kaufman, H.↗
Global Free Tropospheric NO2 Abundances Derived Using a Cloud Slicing Technique Applied to Satellite Observations from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)
We derive free-tropospheric NO2 volume mixing ratios (VMRs) and stratospheric column amounts of NO2 by applying a cloud slicing technique to data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite. In the cloud-slicing approach, the slope of the above-cloud NO2 column versus the cloud scene pressure is proportional to the NO2 VMR. In this work, we use a sample of nearby OMI pixel data from a single orbit for the linear fit. The OMI data include cloud scene pressures from the rotational-Raman algorithm and above-cloud NO2 vertical column density (VCD) (defined as the NO2 column from the cloud scene pressure to the top-of-the-atmosphere) from a differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) algorithm. Estimates of stratospheric column NO2 are obtained by extrapolating the linear fits to the tropopause. We compare OMI-derived NO2 VMRs with in situ aircraft profiles measured during the NASA Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment Phase B (INTEX-B) campaign in 2006. The agreement is generally within the estimated uncertainties when appropriate data screening is applied. We then derive a global seasonal climatology of free-tropospheric NO2 VMR in cloudy conditions. Enhanced NO2 in the free troposphere commonly appears near polluted urban locations where NO2 produced in the boundary layer may be transported vertically out of the boundary layer and then horizontally away from the source. Signatures of lightning NO2 are also shown throughout low and middle latitude regions in summer months. A profile analysis of our cloud slicing data indicates signatures of uplifted and transported anthropogenic NO2 in the middle troposphere as well as lightning-generated NO2 in the upper troposphere. Comparison of the climatology with simulations from the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) for cloudy conditions (cloud optical thicknesses > 10) shows similarities in the spatial patterns of continental pollution outflow. However, there are also some differences in the seasonal variation of free-tropospheric NO2 VMRs near highly populated regions and in areas affected by lightning-generated NOx. Stratospheric column NO2 obtained from cloud slicing agrees well with other independently-generated estimates, providing further confidence in the free-tropospheric results.
NO2↗
Effects of Temperature on Development and Voltinism of Chaetodactylus krombeini (Acari: Chaetodactylidae): Implications for Climate Change Impacts
Temperature plays an important role in the growth and development of arthropods, and thus the current trend of climate change will alter their biology and species distribution. We used Chaetodactylus krombeini (Acari: Chaetodactylidae), a cleptoparasitic mite associated with Osmia bees (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae), as a model organism to investigate how temperature affects the development and voltinism of C. krombeini in the eastern United States. The effects of temperature on the stage-specific development of C. krombeini were determined at seven constant temperatures (16.1, 20.2, 24.1, 27.5, 30.0, 32.4 and 37.8°C). Parameters for stage-specific development, such as threshold temperatures and thermal constant, were determined by using empirical models. Results of this study showed that C. krombeini eggs developed successfully to adult at all temperatures tested except 37.8°C. The nonlinear and linear empirical models were applied to describe quantitatively the relationship between temperature and development of each C. krombeini stage. The nonlinear Lactin model estimated optimal temperatures as 31.4, 32.9, 32.6 and 32.5°C for egg, larva, nymph, and egg to adult, respectively. In the linear model, the lower threshold temperatures were estimated to be 9.9, 14.7, 13.0 and 12.4°C for egg, larva, nymph, and egg to adult, respectively. The thermal constant for each stage completion were 61.5, 28.1, 64.8 and 171.1 degree days for egg, larva, nymph, and egg to adult, respectively. Under the future climate scenarios, the number of generations (i.e., voltinism) would increase more likely by 1.5 to 2.0 times by the year of 2100 according to simulation. Lastly, the findings herein firstly provided comprehensive data on thermal development of C. krombeini and implications for the management of C. krombeini populations under global warming were discussed.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A fuzzy set preference model for market share analysis
Consumer preference models are widely used in new product design, marketing management, pricing, and market segmentation. The success of new products depends on accurate market share prediction and design decisions based on consumer preferences. The vague linguistic nature of consumer preferences and product attributes, combined with the substantial differences between individuals, creates a formidable challenge to marketing models. The most widely used methodology is conjoint analysis. Conjoint models, as currently implemented, represent linguistic preferences as ratio or interval-scaled numbers, use only numeric product attributes, and require aggregation of individuals for estimation purposes. It is not surprising that these models are costly to implement, are inflexible, and have a predictive validity that is not substantially better than chance. This affects the accuracy of market share estimates. A fuzzy set preference model can easily represent linguistic variables either in consumer preferences or product attributes with minimal measurement requirements (ordinal scales), while still estimating overall preferences suitable for market share prediction. This approach results in flexible individual-level conjoint models which can provide more accurate market share estimates from a smaller number of more meaningful consumer ratings. Fuzzy sets can be incorporated within existing preference model structures, such as a linear combination, using the techniques developed for conjoint analysis and market share estimation. The purpose of this article is to develop and fully test a fuzzy set preference model which can represent linguistic variables in individual-level models implemented in parallel with existing conjoint models. The potential improvements in market share prediction and predictive validity can substantially improve management decisions about what to make (product design), for whom to make it (market segmentation), and how much to make (market share prediction).
Turksen, I. B.↗
BICEP/Keck. XX. Component-separated Maps of the Polarized Cosmic Microwave Background and Thermal Dust Emission Using Planck and BICEP/Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season
We present component-separated polarization maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and Galactic thermal dust emission, derived using data from the BICEP/Keck experiments through the 2018 observing season and Planck. By employing a maximum-likelihood method that utilizes observing matrices, we produce unbiased maps of the CMB and dust signals. We outline the computational challenges and demonstrate an efficient implementation of the component map estimator. We show methods to compute and characterize power spectra of these maps, opening up an alternative way to infer the tensor-to-scalar ratio from our data. We compare the results of this map-based separation method with the baseline BICEP/Keck analysis. Our analysis demonstrates consistency between the two methods, finding an 84% correlation between the pipelines.
cosmic inflation↗
Deep Learning Estimation of Daily Ground–Level NO 2 Concentrations from Remote Sensing Data
The limited number of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) surface measurements calls for the development of highly accurate approaches to estimating surface NO 2 concentrations. In this study, we leverage a new satellite instrument, the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), along with other predictor variables, to estimate daily surface NO 2 concentrations over Texas in 2019. We use the deep convolutional neural network (Deep-CNN), an advanced deep learning algorithm, to obtain estimates and achieve a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.91, an index of agreement (IOA) of 0.95, and a mean absolute bias (MAB) of 1.75 ppb in surface NO 2 estimation. Additionally, we leverage a novel approach, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), to describe how Deep-CNN understands each predictor variable. The SHAP results show that the Deep-CNN model has an advanced understanding of the dataset, revealing that TROPOMI closely captures levels of NO 2 . In addition, we show the superiority of our Deep-CNN model at estimating surface NO 2 over other well-known machine learning and regression models in the field, including the support vector machines (SVM), random forest (RF), and multiple linear regression (MLR). Although SVM and RF show strong capabilities at estimating surface NO 2 concentrations, their accuracy is inferior to that of the Deep-CNN model, ranking second and third in model accuracy in this study. The MLR, however, shows a poor ability at NO 2 estimation and ranks last among all models. Furthermore, testing the impact of sample size on model performance, we also show that, compared to other models, Deep-CNN needs more samples to trigger its strength at surface NO 2 estimation.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
In-Time UAV Flight-Trajectory Estimation and Tracking Using Bayesian Filters
Rapid increase of UAV operation in the next decade in areas of on-demand delivery, medical transportation services, law enforcement, traffic surveillance and several others pose potential risks to the low altitude airspace above densely populated areas. Safety assessment of airspace demands the need for a novel UAV traffic management (UTM) framework for regulation and tracking of the vehicles. Particularly for low-altitude UAV operations, quality of GPS measurements feeding into the UAV is often compromised by loss of communication link caused by presence of trees or tall buildings in proximity to the UAV flight path. Inaccurate GPS locations may yield to unreliable monitoring and inaccurate prognosis of remaining battery life and other safety metrics which rely on future expected trajectory of the UAV. This work therefore proposes a generalized monitoring and prediction methodology for autonomous UAVs using in-time GPS measurements. Firstly, a typical 4D smooth trajectory generation technique from a series of waypoint locations with associated expected times-of-arrival based on B-spline curves is presented. Initial uncertainty in the vehicle's expected cruise velocity is quantified to compute confidence intervals along the entire flight trajectory using error interval propagation approach. Further, the generated planned trajectory is considered as the prior knowledge which is updated during its flight with incoming GPS measurements in order to estimate its current location and corresponding kinematic profiles. Estimation of position is denoted in dicrete state-space representation such that position at a future time step is derived from position and velocity at current time step and expected velocity at the future time step. A linear Bayesian filtering algorithm is employed to efficiently refine position estimation from noisy GPS measurements and update the confidence intervals. Further, a dynamic re-planning strategy is implemented to incorporate unexpected detour or delay scenarios. Finally, critical challenges related to uncertainty quantification in trajectory prognosis for autonomous vehicles are identified, and potential solutions are discussed at the end of the paper. The entire monitoring framework is demonstrated on real UAV flight experiments conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center.
Banerjee, Portia↗
Predicting U.S. federal fleet electric vehicle charging patterns using internal combustion engine vehicle fueling transaction statistics
Utilizing fueling transactions from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), the authors estimated how frequently midday public charging would be required for U.S. federal fleet battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Fueling transaction summary statistics are more widely available than trip-level telematics data, making this methodology more accessible and transferable to other researchers and fleet managers considering BEV replacements. For example, readers can easily apply a linear model using only the count of back-to-back fueling events at gas stations over 57 straight-line miles apart to predict days exceeding range. This linear regression predicted binned days exceeding 250 miles at 80% accuracy on a hold-out test set from the same fleet as the training data and 66 % accuracy on a new fleet displaying different driving behaviors. The authors additionally provide linear equations for days exceeding 200 and 300 miles as alternative range estimates to account for differences in BEV range and temperature impacts. Beyond the single-feature linear models which readers can apply, the authors tuned and trained other machine learning models on a variety of fueling transaction statistics including consecutive transaction distances, transaction distance from garage, estimated miles traveled from fuel economy and fuel quantity, and transaction periodicity. Utilizing a subset of 1678 light-duty federal fleet vehicles which contained daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in addition to fueling statistics, the authors determined which fueling transaction statistics were most relevant in predicting driving days exceeding 250 miles (an approximation of BEV rated driving range). In support of the U.S. federal fleet transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), the authors used these statistics and machine learning models to predict the frequency of BEV midday charging. After training models on the subset with VMT, the authors predicted days exceeding rated range for 112,902 light-duty vehicles operating in similar circumstances in the federal fleet using a Support Vector Regressor (SVR). In conclusion, they then used the projections as part of the ZEV Planning and Charging (ZPAC) tool to identify optimal candidates for BEVs for the federal fleet. An anonymized version of ZPAC is included in the supplementary materials.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Low-Cost Evaluation of EO-1 Hyperion and ALI for Detection and Biophysical Characterization of Forest Logging in Amazonia (NCC5-481)
Major uncertainties exist regarding the rate and intensity of logging in tropical forests worldwide: these uncertainties severely limit economic, ecological, and biogeochemical analyses of these regions. Recent sawmill surveys in the Amazon region of Brazil show that the area logged is nearly equal to total area deforested annually, but conversion of survey data to forest area, forest structural damage, and biomass estimates requires multiple assumptions about logging practices. Remote sensing could provide an independent means to monitor logging activity and to estimate the biophysical consequences of this land use. Previous studies have demonstrated that the detection of logging in Amazon forests is difficult and no studies have developed either the quantitative physical basis or remote sensing approaches needed to estimate the effects of various logging regimes on forest structure. A major reason for these limitations has been a lack of sufficient, well-calibrated optical satellite data, which in turn, has impeded the development and use of physically-based, quantitative approaches for detection and structural characterization of forest logging regimes. We propose to use data from the EO-1 Hyperion imaging spectrometer to greatly increase our ability to estimate the presence and structural attributes of selective logging in the Amazon Basin. Our approach is based on four "biogeophysical indicators" not yet derived simultaneously from any satellite sensor: 1) green canopy leaf area index; 2) degree of shadowing; 3) presence of exposed soil and; 4) non-photosynthetic vegetation material. Airborne, field and modeling studies have shown that the optical reflectance continuum (400-2500 nm) contains sufficient information to derive estimates of each of these indicators. Our ongoing studies in the eastern Amazon basin also suggest that these four indicators are sensitive to logging intensity. Satellite-based estimates of these indicators should provide a means to quantify both the presence and degree of structural disturbance caused by various logging regimes. Our quantitative assessment of Hyperion hyperspectral and ALI multi-spectral data for the detection and structural characterization of selective logging in Amazonia will benefit from data collected through an ongoing project run by the Tropical Forest Foundation, within which we have developed a study of the canopy and landscape biophysics of conventional and reduced-impact logging. We will add to our base of forest structural information in concert with an EO-1 overpass. Using a photon transport model inversion technique that accounts for non-linear mixing of the four biogeophysical indicators, we will estimate these parameters across a gradient of selective logging intensity provided by conventional and reduced impact logging sites. We will also compare our physical ly-based approach to both conventional (e.g., NDVI) and novel (e.g., SWIR-channel) vegetation indices as well as to linear mixture modeling methods. We will cross-compare these approaches using Hyperion and ALI imagers to determine the strengths and limitations of these two sensors for applications of forest biophysics. This effort will yield the first physical ly-based, quantitative analysis of the detection and intensity of selective logging in Amazonia, comparing hyperspectral and improved multi-spectral approaches as well as inverse modeling, linear mixture modeling, and vegetation index techniques.
Asner, Gregory P.↗