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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Results and lessons learned from accelerating radio frequency modeling using machine learning [slides]

The “advanced tokamak” reactor concept is a leading candidate for a steady state fusion pilot plant. An advanced tokamak (AT) sustains a majority of the required plasma current with effects resulting from maintenance of the peaked pressure at the device center. This current is augmented by auxiliary current drive sources. These auxiliary actuators may consist of neutral particle beams and/or radio frequency (RF) systems such as lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) and high harmonic fast wave (HHFW) current drive using radio and microwaves from antennas. The primary focus of this work is to develop models of RF current profile control suitable for use in integrated modeling frameworks and for real-time control in experiments. Direct physics models of RF current drive can be computationally intensive. In order to achieve predictive times appropriate for the thousands of calls needed in real-time control of experiments and for use in integrated models, we will apply modern machine learning (ML) techniques to accelerate these models and interpolate their results. To generate the fast and accurate models for use in control level algorithms and integrated modeling we need to replace present models with high dimensional interpolation of their results. We will perform additional simulations across a broader parameter range for EAST and other tokamaks in different physics regimes (Alcator C-Mod, DIII-D, WEST, CFETR, ARC, ITER) and combine them into a larger database for training and testing of the ML models. Further testing of the control level models with experimental current profile data from EAST and C-Mod tokamaks will provide additional confirmation of the control level model before integration in a tokamak control system or integrated modeling suite. ML will be used to optimize the selection of training data consisting of RF current driven at different values of density profile, temperature profile, plasma current, and wavenumber. ML will also be used to facilitate classification of current drive from these input data. The output of this effort will be a validated classifier capable of determining the current drive profiles for HHFW CD and LHCD on a mille-second timescale. This will provide a breakthrough capability enabling real-time control of RF driven current profiles in experiments including ITER ICRF and use integrated modeling frameworks requiring thousands of current profile calculations in discharge simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Forest aboveground biomass estimation through integration of sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 time series: assessing models trained on GEDI and field inventory benchmarks

Accurate and spatially explicit forest Aboveground Biomass (AGB) mapping through remote sensing is critical for quantifying terrestrial carbon stocks and informing effective forest management strategies. However, AGB estimation in dense forests with complex terrain remains challenging due to satellite sensor signal saturation problem (saturation issue occurs in high biomass forests), structural complexity, and limited ground truth for calibration. This study presents a novel framework that integrates multi-temporal Sentinel-2 optical imagery, ALOS PALSAR-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and topographic variables with explainable Machine Learning to map AGB across mountainous forests within subtropical and temperate oceanic climate zones of Mexico. We evaluate the effects of temporal granularity and sensor synergy by comparing multiple temporal inputs and sensor configurations (Sentinel-2, PALSAR-2, and their fusion), and assess model performance using two reference datasets: NASA GEDI LiDAR-derived biomass and Mexico’s National Forest and Soil Inventory (INFyS). Our results showed that models trained on INFyS consistently outperformed those trained on GEDI, highlighting limitations in GEDI’s reliability in biomass estimates within this study region. Furthermore, the integration of Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 provided improved predictions compared to single-sensor models, particularly when combined with temporally explicit yearly statistics. The best-performing model, which was trained on INFyS data, and considered both Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 yearly statistics, as well as topographic variables, achieved an R2 of 0.64, RMSE of 51.10 Mg/ha, and relative RMSE (rRMSE) of 58.69%. Explainable ML analysis identified Sentinel-2 spectral indices and topographic features as key predictors, while PALSAR-2 metrics provided complementary information, partially mitigating saturation effects in high-biomass areas. Specifically, integrating both sensors substantially improved AGB estimation in high biomass forest (≥200 Mg/ha), yielding 98% gains over optical-only model, with resulting estimates exceeding GEDI L4B by 29% and ESA-CCI-BIOMASS by 174%. Terrain-stratified analysis indicated close agreement with GEDI in low-slope areas, with increasing divergence as slope steepness increased, while estimates remained consistently higher than ESA-CCI-BIOMASS across all slope classes. The proposed approach advances multi-sensor fusion and temporal feature engineering for AGB mapping using open-access satellite datasets, providing a scalable and reproducible framework for annual biomass monitoring in topographically complex mountainous forests. The resulting 25 m resolution biomass product has the potential to provide spatially detailed information for forest monitoring and may support applications in carbon accounting and forest management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measuring Equality in Machine Learning Security Defenses: A Case Study in Speech Recognition

Over the past decade, the machine learning security community has developed a myriad of defenses for evasion attacks. An understudied question in that community is: for whom do these defenses defend? This work considers common approaches to defending learned systems and how security defenses result in performance inequities across different sub-populations. We outline appropriate parity metrics for analysis and begin to answer this question through empirical results of the fairness implications of machine learning security methods. We find that many methods that have been proposed can cause direct harm, like false rejection and unequal benefits from robustness training. The framework we propose for measuring defense equality can be applied to robustly trained models, preprocessing-based defenses, and rejection methods. We identify a set of datasets with a user-centered application and a reasonable computational cost suitable for case studies in measuring the equality of defenses. In our case study of speech command recognition, we show how such adversarial training and augmentation have non-equal but complex protections for social subgroups across gender, accent, and age in relation to user coverage. We present a comparison of equality between two rejection-based defenses: randomized smoothing and neural rejection, finding randomized smoothing more equitable due to the sampling mechanism for minority groups. This represents the first work examining the disparity in the adversarial robustness in the speech domain and the fairness evaluation of rejection-based defenses.

• Artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning ↗
DOE OSTI2017

Emulating Simulations of Cosmic Dawn for 21 cm Power Spectrum Constraints on Cosmology, Reionization, and X-Ray Heating

Current and upcoming radio interferometric experiments are aiming to make a statistical characterization of the high-redshift 21 cm fluctuation signal spanning the hydrogen reionization and X-ray heating epochs of the universe. However, connecting 21 cm statistics to the underlying physical parameters is complicated by the theoretical challenge of modeling the relevant physics at computational speeds quick enough to enable exploration of the high-dimensional and weakly constrained parameter space. In this work, we use machine learning algorithms to build a fast emulator that can accurately mimic an expensive simulation of the 21 cm signal across a wide parameter space. We embed our emulator within a Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework in order to perform Bayesian parameter constraints over a large number of model parameters, including those that govern the Epoch of Reionization, the Epoch of X-ray Heating, and cosmology. As a worked example, we use our emulator to present an updated parameter constraint forecast for the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array experiment, showing that its characterization of a fiducial 21 cm power spectrum will considerably narrow the allowed parameter space of reionization and heating parameters, and could help strengthen Planck's constraints on σ{sub 8}. We provide both our generalized emulator code and its implementation specifically for 21 cm parameter constraints as publicly available software.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

BASIN-3D: A brokering framework to integrate diverse environmental data

Diverse observational and simulation datasets are needed to understand and predict complex ecosystem behavior over seasonal to decadal and century time-scales. Integration of these datasets poses a major barrier towards advancing environmental science, particularly due to differences in the structure and formats of data provided by various sources. Here, we describe BASIN-3D (Broker for Assimilation, Synthesis and Integration of eNvironmental Diverse, Distributed Datasets), a data integration framework designed to dynamically retrieve and transform heterogeneous data from different sources into a common format to provide an integrated view. BASIN-3D enables users to adopt a standardized approach for data retrieval and avoid customizations for the data type or source. We demonstrate the value of BASIN-3D with two use cases that require integration of data from regional to watershed spatial scales. The first application uses the BASIN-3D Python library to integrate time-series hydrological and meteorological data to provide standardized inputs to analytical and machine learning codes in order to predict the impacts of hydrological disturbances on large river corridors of the United States. The second application uses the BASIN-3D Django framework to integrate diverse time-series data in a mountainous watershed in East River, Colorado, United States to enable scientific researchers to explore and download data through an interactive web portal. Thus, BASIN-3D can be used to support data integration for both web-based tools, as well as data analytics using Python scripting and extensions like Jupyter notebooks. The framework is expected to be transferable to and useful for many other field and modeling studies.

Varadharajan, C↗
DOE OSTI2023

2022 American Conference on Neutron Scattering (ACNS 2022)

The 11th American Conference on Neutron Scattering (ACNS 2022) will be held on June 5-9, 2022, in Boulder, CO. The Conference will provide essential information on the breadth and depth of current neutron-related research worldwide. Hosted by the Neutron Scattering Society of America, this year’s Conference will feature a combination of invited and contributed talks, poster sessions, and tutorials. Topics of the conference are: Advances in Neutron Facilities, Instrumentation and Software: Developments in sources, instrumentation, sample environments and control software. Hard Condensed Matter: Magnetism, correlated metals, quantum/topological materials, superconductors, ferroelectrics, multiferroics, glasses, and disorder phenomena. Submissions outlining examples of neutron scattering in industrial and engineering applications involving hard condensed matter systems are also encouraged. Soft Matter: Neutron studies of soft materials and related fields including in situ and in operando studies. Polymers, surfactants, emulsions, gels, nanoparticles, colloidal suspensions and more. Submissions of computational studies or applications of machine learning beneficial to neutron scattering experiments, as well as examples of neutron scattering in industrial and engineering applications are strongly encouraged. Biology, Biophysics and Biotechnology: Neutron studies of biological and biologically relevant systems. Proteins, bio membranes, biological assemblies, natural materials, nucleic acids, drug-delivery platforms and biomedical systems. Submissions of computational studies or applications of machine learning beneficial to biological neutron scattering experiments, as well as examples of neutron scattering in applied research involving biological systems, are strongly encouraged. Materials Chemistry and Energy: Neutron-based studies of functional materials and materials for energy applications. Examples include porous materials such as metal organic frameworks (MOFs), zeolites; phosphors; novel pigments; electrolytes; catalysts; ionic conductors/cathode materials; photovoltaic materials (hybrid perovskites); thermoelectrics; magnetocalorics/electrocalorics. Structural Materials and Engineering: Neutron scattering studies of materials and engineering processes including structural materials, concrete and metals, as well as engineering processes including combustion, corrosion, additive manufacturing, and others. Neutron Physics: Fundamental physical studies of the neutron and related areas. Emerging Applications in Neutron Scattering: Machine Learning and Data Science: Advances in computing power have contributed to rapidly evolving machine learning and data science fields that can be leveraged to the benefit of the neutron scattering community. The purpose of this session is to highlight recent advances in machine learning and data science and to serve as the foundation of a parallel data and computation track highlighting computation advances and applications in neutron scattering throughout the conference.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning-based multidomain processing for texture-based image segmentation and analysis

Atomic and molecular resolved atomic force microscopy (AFM) images offer unique insights into materials' properties such as local ordering, molecular orientation, and topological defects, which can be used to pinpoint physical and chemical interactions occurring at the surface. Utilizing machine learning for extracting underlying physical parameters increases the throughput of AFM data processing and eliminates inconsistencies intrinsic to manual image analysis, thus enabling the creation of reliable frameworks for qualitative and quantitative evaluation of experimental data. Here, we present a robust and scalable approach to the segmentation of AFM images based on flexible pre-selected classification criteria. The usage of supervised learning and feature extraction allows us to retain the consideration of specific problem-dependent features (such as types of periodical structures observed in the images and the associated numerical parameters: spacing, orientation, etc.). We highlight the applicability of this approach for the segmentation of molecular resolved AFM images based on the crystal orientation of the observed domains, automated selection of boundaries, and collection of relevant statistics. Finally, we outline a general strategy for machine learning-enabled analysis of nanoscale systems exhibiting periodic order that could be applied to any analytical imaging technique

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive model for real-time energy disaggregation using long short-term memory

To provide affordable energy-saving solutions for the small and medium-sized manufacturers (SMMs), we propose a unified framework for generating predictive models that support real-time disaggregation of power consumption from combined inputs, enabling automatic machine state identification simultaneously for joint analysis of energy usage patterns. Further, the proposed framework transforms raw power consumption into a time series with look-back and bootstrap capabilities for historical pattern detection, while a learning architecture utilizes the stacked long short-term memory (LSTM) layers as encoders for embedding generation with sequential awareness. Experimental results demonstrate 93.65% minimum accuracy in ideal case of real-time energy usage and machine state prediction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improved Line Outage Detection in Transmission Systems with Few PMUs

Unlike transmission systems, distribution systems historically lack enough measurements, making their real-time monitoring almost impossible. Recent deployment of diverse types of devices such as phasor measurement units (PMUs), smart meters, solar inverters and weather information sensors opens up new ways of monitoring these systems, with the assistance of customized machine learning (ML) applications. The paper describes a grid-model-informed machine learning (ML) tool which integrates heterogeneous data streams and creates synchronous measurement snapshots to be used by a hybrid robust state estimator (SE) which provides not only accurate state estimates but also real-time feedback for ML model refinement. Improved monitoring performance due to the use of developed computational framework is experimentally observed by simulated scenarios on an electric utility’s distribution system.

Distribution systems, graph learning, machine lear↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using genetic algorithms to systematically improve the synthesis conditions of Al-PMOF

The synthesis of metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) is often complex and the desired structure is not always obtained. In this work, we report a methodology that uses a joint machine learning and experimental approach to optimize the synthesis conditions of Al-PMOF (Al 2 (OH) 2 TCPP) [H 2 TCPP = meso-tetra(4-carboxyphenyl)porphine], a promising material for carbon capture applications. Al-PMOF was previously synthesized using a hydrothermal reaction, which gave a low throughput yield due to its relatively long reaction time (16 hours). Here, we use a genetic algorithm to carry out a systematic search for the optimal synthesis conditions and a microwave-based high-throughput robotic platform for the syntheses. We show that, in just two generations, we could obtain excellent crystallinity and yield close to 80% in a much shorter reaction time (50 minutes). Moreover, by analyzing the failed and partially successful experiments, we could identify the most important experimental variables that determine the crystallinity and yield.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Design and Optimization of a Gas-Cooled, Airfoil Fin Microchannel Heat Exchanger

High-performance microchannel heat exchangers are needed to supply heat for power conversion for nuclear microreactors. An airfoil fin microchannel design, constructed of Alloy 617 with helium as the working fluid, was analyzed and optimized using a design of experiments with artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques. The use of airfoil fins offers the potential to reduce pressure drop across the heat exchanger, as compared to other types of channel configurations. A framework for topology optimization of airfoil fin PCHEs has been developed that can be readily extended to different fin sizes and shapes, as well as different inlet and operating conditions, materials of construction, and working fluids. An optimization procedure was developed that employs computational fluid dynamics for a set of design points identified using Latin hypercube sampling. STAR-CCM+ was used to analyze a simplified two-channel configuration where five parameters were varied – inlet angle, fin scale, extent of staggering, transverse and longitudinal pitches. Two methods were compared for generating surrogate models – a 5D polynomial and a regression neural network. A response surface approximation was created from the surrogate models and input to a genetic algorithm. The genetic algorithm identified a set of optimal points on the Pareto front. The optimal geometry was found across six channel Reynolds numbers ranging from 1000 to 5000 to analyze how varying inlet conditions affects the optimal design. A set of optimal designs that maximizes heat transfer and minimizes pressure drop was identified, and a thermal stress analysis was performed on the optimal design. This work has developed a digital framework for the expedient topology design and evaluation of PCHE designs for gas-cooled microreactor applications. Correlations for the Nusselt number and Darcy friction factor were developed that can be useful for thermal hydraulic analyses using system codes. A thermal stress analysis was conducted and a brief discussion of the status of code cases of PCHEs for nuclear applications is given. Testing and thermomechanical modeling is needed to facilitate future code compliance of PCHEs for high pressure and high temperature applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Considerations regarding the Use of Computer Vision Machine Learning in Safety-Related or Risk-Significant Applications in Nuclear Power Plants

With the advancements made to date in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), significant potential exists to utilize AI capabilities for nuclear power plant (NPP) applications. AI can replicate human decision making and it is usually faster and more accurate than humans. For implementations that impact critical NPP applications (e.g., safety-related or non-safety systems that potentially affect overall plant risk), a deeper safety analysis of the AI methods is necessary. AI applied to NPP operations could resemble the use of digital I&C (DI&C) because such applications involve digital computer hardware and custom-designed software that input plant data, execute complex software algorithms, and output the results to a system or licensed human operator to potentially provoke an action. For AI methods to be compliant with current safety requirements for DI&C, AI compatibility must be evaluated, and AI-related gaps may exist that prevent the prompt deployment of AI in NPPs. This effort aims to evaluate how example AI technologies align with the DI&C safety framework, and discusses how they could be analyzed, modeled, tested, and validated in a manner similar to typical DI&C technologies. Because AI is a broad field that encompasses areas such as machine learning (ML), natural language processing, and computer vision, this research focused on a subset of methods categorized as the computer vision ML (CVML) methods. This report explores two CVML use cases, gauge reading and fire watch, considered relevant to the DI&C standards, as they could play a safety-critical role. For the gauge reading use case, a CVML-enabled technology that can read gauges at oblique angles is utilized. For the fire watch use case, a CVML-enabled technology is utilized that migrates fire watch from a manual (human) approach to automated fire detection. These use cases are mainly intended to give context to the CVML system discussion. This effort assumes the worst-case scenario, with the CVML system being used to replace a safety-related or risk-significant system, thus requiring evaluation. Evaluating CVML against most of the relevant safety requirements for DI&C yielded several CVML-specific considerations due to the uniqueness of its characteristics in comparison with typical DI&C systems. For example, CVML models often employ commonly used (open-source) datasets, and it is not always possible to determine the level of overlap among open-source datasets. Therefore, the independence of the developed CVML models when demonstrating diversity is questionable, therefore creating vulnerability to common cause failure (CCF). The design verification process is also impacted since the data overlap could result in overestimation of the software validation and verification (V&V) performance results. Section 2 of this report evaluates a list of the identified CVML-specific characteristics and discusses the resulting considerations and potential solutions in the context of each referenced requirement. A summation is provided in Section 3. This report is not to be used as a guideline. It was developed to identify and consider issues in the implementation of ML technologies used to augment activities that may have a bearing on plant operation. The report draws parallels to the use of DI&C technologies, for which many standards are available to guide their use in nuclear plant operation. It considers the technologies and some of the potential implications of their use in safety-related applications but is not intended to address regulatory or licensing related issues.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Insight into ideal shear strength of Ni-based dilute alloys using first-principles calculations and correlational analysis

Here the present work examines the effect of alloying elements (denoted X) on the ideal shear strength for 26 dilute Ni-based alloys, Ni11X, as determined by first-principles calculations of pure alias shear deformations. The variations in ideal shear strength are quantitatively explored with correlational analysis techniques, showing the importance of atomic properties such as size and electronegativity. The shear moduli of the alloys are affirmed to show a strong linear relationship with their ideal shear strengths, while the shear moduli of the individual alloying elements were not indicative of alloy shear strength. Through combination with available ideal shear strength data on Mg alloys, a potential application of the Ni alloy data is demonstrated in the search for a set of atomic features suitable for machine learning applications to mechanical properties. As another illustration, the calculated Ni ideal shear strengths play a key role in a predictive multiscale framework for deformation behavior of single crystal alloys at large strains, as shown by simulated stress–strain curves.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning for physics-based models

This paper addresses the issue of overfitting while calibrating unknown parameters of over-parameterized physics-based models with noisy and incomplete observations. Here, a semi-analytical Bayesian framework of nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning (NSBL) is proposed to identify sparsity among model parameters during Bayesian inversion. NSBL offers significant advantages over machine learning algorithm of sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) for physics-based models, such as 1) the likelihood function or the posterior parameter distribution is not required to be Gaussian, and 2) prior parameter knowledge is incorporated into sparse learning (i.e. not all parameters are treated as questionable). NSBL employs the concept of automatic relevance determination (ARD) to facilitate sparsity among questionable parameters through parameterized prior distributions. The analytical tractability of NSBL is enabled by employing Gaussian ARD priors and by building a Gaussian mixture-model approximation of the posterior parameter distribution that excludes the contribution of ARD priors. Subsequently, type-II maximum likelihood is executed using Newton's method whereby the evidence and its gradient and Hessian information are computed in a semi-analytical fashion. We show numerically and analytically that SBL is a special case of NSBL for linear regression models. Subsequently, a linear regression example involving multimodality in both parameter posterior pdf and model evidence is considered to demonstrate the performance of NSBL in cases where SBL is inapplicable. Next, NSBL is applied to identify sparsity among the damping coefficients of a mass-spring-damper model of a shear building frame. These numerical studies demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of NSBL in alleviating overfitting during Bayesian inversion of nonlinear physics-based models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data driven investigation to understand the influence of total solids on biological biogas upgrading

In situ biogas upgrading achieves CO 2 conversion to CH 4 via hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis; however, gas-liquid mass transfer constraints limit the upgrading performance. Recognizing that optimization studies often underrepresent the effects of total solids (TS) and organic loading rate (OLR), this study undertook a holistic, statistics driven assessment of operating conditions for in situ H 2 assisted biogas upgrading, centering the analysis on TS and OLR. A dataset of 31 studies was compiled and comprised 99 observations. A rigorous analytical framework was employed, combining data standardization, fixed- and random-effects (REML) weighted regressions with cluster-robust errors, stratified analyses, and machine learning. Mixed-effects meta regression indicated that TS was the main factor explaining differences of methane fraction (CH 4 %) when considering the between studies heterogeneity. Focusing on a near-stoichiometric subset (H 2 /CO 2 ≈ 4:1), TS remained significant. Stratified results showed a stronger negative relationship between TS and CH 4 % in UASB reactors than in CSTRs, with a negative effect under mesophilic conditions and no significant effect under thermophilic conditions. A Random Forest model corroborated the statistical findings, consistently ranking H 2 /CO 2 ratio, OLR, TS, and hydrogen injection rate (HIR) as the most influential predictors. These findings delineate trends across increasing TS levels, particularly between 1% and 10%, and provide preliminary insights for TS above 15% in in situ biogas upgrading. They further provide insights for the influence of TS by reactor type and temperature, thereby advancing the evidence base for implementing biological CO 2 conversion to CH 4 in practice.

In situ biogas upgrading↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the transferability of residence time distributions in two 10-km long river sections with similar hydromorphic units

Quantifying hydrologic exchange fluxes (HEFs) at the stream-groundwater interface and their residence time distributions (RTDs) in the subsurface are important for managing the water quality and ecosystem health in dynamic river corridors. However, direct simulating high-spatial resolution HEFs and RTDs can be time-consuming, especially for watershed-scale modeling. Efficient surrogate models linking RTDs to hydromorphic units (HUs) can be alternatives for simulating RTDs in large-scale models. A common concern of these surrogate models, though, is the transferability of the relationship between the RTDs and HUs from one river corridor to another. To address this issue, this work evaluates the HEFs and resulting RTD-HU relationships for two 10-km long river corridors along the Columbia River leveraging a one-way coupled three-dimensional transient surface-subsurface water transport modeling framework we previously developed. Applying such a framework at the two river corridors with similar HUs allows for quantitative comparisons of HEFs and RTDs using both statistical tests and machine learning classification models. Finally, our comparison shows that the similarity and transferability of the RTD-HU relationship is very low for the two investigated river sections, which suggests that devising a general algorithm to estimate RTDs based solely on surface water hydrodynamics and short-distance river channel topography data, as well as HU classification, might be nearly impossible.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Equation‐Free Surrogate Modeling of Geophysical Flows at the Intersection of Machine Learning and Data Assimilation

Abstract There is a growing interest in developing data‐driven reduced‐order models for atmospheric and oceanic flows that are trained on data obtained either from high‐resolution simulations or satellite observations. The data‐driven models are non‐intrusive in nature and offer significant computational savings compared to large‐scale numerical models. These low‐dimensional models can be utilized to reduce the computational burden of generating forecasts and estimating model uncertainty without losing the key information needed for data assimilation (DA) to produce accurate state estimates. This paper aims at exploring an equation‐free surrogate modeling approach at the intersection of machine learning and DA in Earth system modeling. With this objective, we introduce an end‐to‐end non‐intrusive reduced‐order modeling (NIROM) framework equipped with contributions in modal decomposition, time series prediction, optimal sensor placement, and sequential DA. Specifically, we use proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to identify the dominant structures of the flow, and a long short‐term memory network to model the dynamics of the POD modes. The NIROM is integrated within the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter (DEnKF) to incorporate sparse and noisy observations at optimal sensor locations obtained through QR pivoting. The feasibility and the benefit of the proposed framework are demonstrated for the NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (SST) V2 data set. Our results indicate that the NIROM is stable for long‐term forecasting and can model dynamics of SST with a reasonable level of accuracy. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy of the NIROM gets improved by almost one order of magnitude by the DEnKF algorithm.

Pawar, Suraj↗