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Analysis of delay reducing and fuel saving sequencing and spacing algorithms for arrival traffic

The air traffic control subsystem that performs sequencing and spacing is discussed. The function of the sequencing and spacing algorithms is to automatically plan the most efficient landing order and to assign optimally spaced landing times to all arrivals. Several algorithms are described and their statistical performance is examined. Sequencing brings order to an arrival sequence for aircraft. First-come-first-served sequencing (FCFS) establishes a fair order, based on estimated times of arrival, and determines proper separations. Because of the randomness of the arriving traffic, gaps will remain in the sequence of aircraft. Delays are reduced by time-advancing the leading aircraft of each group while still preserving the FCFS order. Tightly spaced groups of aircraft remain with a mix of heavy and large aircraft. Spacing requirements differ for different types of aircraft trailing each other. Traffic is reordered slightly to take advantage of this spacing criterion, thus shortening the groups and reducing average delays. For heavy traffic, delays for different traffic samples vary widely, even when the same set of statistical parameters is used to produce each sample. This report supersedes NASA TM-102795 on the same subject. It includes a new method of time-advance as well as an efficient method of sequencing and spacing for two dependent runways.

Neuman, Frank↗

Barium stars as tracers of s -process nucleosynthesis in AGB stars

Barium (Ba) stars help to verify asymptotic giant branch (AGB) star nucleosynthesis models since they experienced pollution from an AGB binary companion and thus their spectra carry the signatures of the slow neutron capture process (s process). For a large number (180) of Ba stars, we searched for AGB stellar models that match the observed abundance patterns. We aim to uncover any systematic deviations of the sample abundances from the predictions of the nucleosynthesis models. We employed three machine learning algorithms as classifiers: a Random Forest method, developed for this work, and the two classifiers used in our previous study. Compared to that work, we also expanded our observational sample with 11 Ba stars available in the supersolar metallicity range. We studied the statistical behaviour of the different s-process elements in the observational sample to investigate if the AGB models systematically under- or overpredict the abundances observed in the Ba stars and show the results in the form of violin plots of the residuals between spectroscopic abundances and model predictions. We inspected the correlations between the observed [Fe/H], the s-process elemental abundances, and the residuals. We employed the [Zr/Fe] and [Nb/Fe] abundances as a thermometer to constrain the operational temperature that rules the production of these elements in the sample stars, assuming a steady-state s process. We also investigated the mass distribution of the identified polluter AGB stars and the behaviour of the δ parameter, which describes the fraction of accreted AGB material relative to the Ba star envelope. We find a significant trend in the residuals that implies an underproduction of the elements just after the first s-process peak (Nb, Mo, and Ru) in the models relative to the observations. This may originate from a neutron-capture process (e.g. the intermediate neutron-capture process, i process) not yet included in the AGB models of metallicity from solar to roughly 1/5 solar, corresponding to the range of the Ba stars. Correlations are found between the residuals of these peculiar elements, suggesting a common origin for the deviations from the models. In addition, there is a weak metallicity dependence of the residuals of these elements. The s-process temperatures derived with the [Zr/Fe] – [Nb/Fe] thermometer have an unrealistic value for the majority of our stars. The most likely explanation is that at least a fraction of these elements are not produced in a steady-state s process, and instead may be due to processes not included in the AGB models. The mass distribution of the identified models confirms that our sample of Ba stars was polluted by low-mass AGB stars (< 4 M ⊙ ). Most of the matching AGB models require low accreted mass, but a few systems with high accreted mass are needed to explain the observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Photometric classification and redshift estimation of LSST Supernovae

Supernova (SN) classification and redshift estimation using photometric data only have become very important for the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), given the large number of SNe that LSST will observe and the impossibility of spectroscopically following up all the SNe. We investigate the performance of an SN classifier that uses SN colours to classify LSST SNe with the Random Forest classification algorithm. Our classifier results in an area-under-the-curve of 0.98 which represents excellent classification. We are able to obtain a photometric SN sample containing 99 percent SNe Ia by choosing a probability threshold. We estimate the photometric redshifts (photo-z) of SNe in our sample by fitting the SN light curves using the SALT2 model with nested sampling. We obtain a mean bias ($\langle$z phot - z spec $\rangle$) of 0.012 with σ($\frac{zphot-zspec}{1+zspec}$)=0.0294 σ(zphot-zspec1+zspec)=0.0294 without using a host-galaxy photo-z prior, and a mean bias ($\langle$z phot - z spec $\rangle$) of 0.0017 with σ($\frac{zphot-zspec}{1+zspec}$)=0.0116 using a host-galaxy photo-z prior. Assuming a flat ΛCDM model with Ω m = 0.3, we obtain Ω m of 0.305 ± 0.008 (statistical errors only), using the simulated LSST sample of photometric SNe Ia (with intrinsic scatter σ int = 0.11) derived using our methodology without using host-galaxy photo-z prior. Our method will help boost the power of SNe from the LSST as cosmological probes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

CoverM: read alignment statistics for metagenomics

SUMMARY: Genome-centric analysis of metagenomic samples is a powerful method for understanding the function of microbial communities. Calculating read coverage is a central part of analysis, enabling differential coverage binning for recovery of genomes and estimation of microbial community composition. Coverage is determined by processing read alignments to reference sequences of either contigs or genomes. Per-reference coverage is typically calculated in an ad-hoc manner, with each software package providing its own implementation and specific definition of coverage. Here we present a unified software package CoverM which calculates several coverage statistics for contigs and genomes in an ergonomic and flexible manner. It uses "Mosdepth arrays" for computational efficiency and avoids unnecessary I/O overhead by calculating coverage statistics from streamed read alignment results. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: CoverM is free software available at https://github.com/wwood/coverm. CoverM is implemented in Rust, with Python (https://github.com/apcamargo/pycoverm) and Julia (https://github.com/JuliaBinaryWrappers/CoverM_jll.jl) interfaces.

Aroney, Samuel T N↗

Triton Field Trials - Changes in Habitats, a Literature Review of Monitoring Technologies

Marine energy devices are installed in highly dynamic environments and have the potential to affect benthic and pelagic habitats around them. Regulatory bodies often require baseline characterization and/or post-installation monitoring to determine whether changes in these habitats are being observed. However, a great diversity of technologies is available for surveying and sampling marine habitats. Selecting the most suitable instrument to identify and measure changes in habitats at marine energy sites can become a daunting task. We conducted a thorough review of journal articles, survey reports, and grey literature to extract information about the technologies used, the data collection and processing methods, and the performance and effectiveness of these instruments. We examined documents related to marine energy development, offshore wind farms, oil and gas offshore sites, and other marine industries around the world over the last 20 years, as well as national and international guidelines for surveying habitats around offshore activities. A total of 120 different technologies were identified across six main habitat categories: seafloor, sediment, infauna, epifauna, pelagic, and biofouling. The technologies were organized into 12 broad technology classes: acoustic, corer, dredge, grab, hook and line, net and trawl, plate, remote sensing, scrape samples, trap, visual, and others. Visual was the most common and the most diverse technology class, with applications across all six habitat categories. Sampling designs varied considerably among the reviewed studies but transect was the predominant design for surveying seafloor, epifauna, and pelagic habitats. The most common data analyses were univariate and multivariate statistical analyses aimed at calculating and comparing biodiversity indices, characterizing faunal assemblages or sediment classes, or modeling the distribution of animals related to abiotic parameters. Technologies and sampling methods adaptable and designed to work efficiently in energetic environments have greater success at marine energy sites. In addition, sampling designs and statistical analyses should be carefully thought through to identify differences in faunal assemblages and spatiotemporal changes in habitats.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Merging Fungal and Bacterial Community Profiles via an Internal Control

Integrated measurements of fungi and bacteria are critical to understand how interactions between these taxa drive key processes in ecosystems ranging from soils to animal guts. High-throughput amplicon sequencing is commonly used to census microbiomes, but the genetic markers targeted for fungi and bacteria (typically ribosomal regions) are domain-specific so profiling must be performed separately, obscuring relationships between these groups. To solve this problem, we developed a spike-in method with an internal control (IC) construct containing primer sites commonly used for bacterial and fungal taxonomic profiling. The internal control offers several advantages: estimation of absolute abundances, estimation of fungal to bacterial ratios (F:B), integration of bacterial and fungal profiles for holistic community analysis, and lower costs compared to other quantitation methods. To validate the IC as a scaling method, we compared IC-derived measures of F:B to measures from quantitative PCR (qPCR) using a commercial mock community (the ZymoBiomic Microbial Community DNA Standard II, containing two fungi and eight bacteria) and complex environmental samples. For both the mock community and the environmental samples, the IC produced F:B values that were statistically consistent with qPCR. Merging the environmental fungal and bacterial profiles based on the IC-derived F:B values revealed new relationships among samples in terms of community similarity. As a result, this IC method is the first spike-in method to employ a single construct for cross-domain amplicon sequencing, offering more reliable measurements.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Radionuclide stochastic distribution in the irradiated graphite - 15206

In France, about 17,000 tons of irradiated graphite waste will be produced from the decommissioning of the six gas-cooled nuclear reactors operated by Electricite De France (EDF). Radionuclide measurements in irradiated graphite exhibit very high discrepancies especially when corresponding to precursors at trace level which is often the case for nuclear grade graphite. As evidenced by numerous studies nuclear graphite is a very pure material, however, it cannot be considered from an analytical viewpoint as a typical homogeneous material. Geo-statistics do not give any notable results when the 3D neutron flux and power history are known. Without taking into account the very origin of the stochastic behavior of radionuclide, their properties may be assumed with the statistical properties which are used in the case of contaminated soils but which have no interest for irradiated graphite. At every scale, the huge discrepancy cannot be avoided but can be easily explained by Theory Of Sampling (TOS) of finely divided materials. The complexity of nuclear graphite is due to its high purity. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

acdc – Automated Contamination Detection and Confidence estimation for single-cell genome data

Abstract Background A major obstacle in single-cell sequencing is sample contamination with foreign DNA. To guarantee clean genome assemblies and to prevent the introduction of contamination into public databases, considerable quality control efforts are put into post-sequencing analysis. Contamination screening generally relies on reference-based methods such as database alignment or marker gene search, which limits the set of detectable contaminants to organisms with closely related reference species. As genomic coverage in the tree of life is highly fragmented, there is an urgent need for a reference-free methodology for contaminant identification in sequence data. Results We present acdc, a tool specifically developed to aid the quality control process of genomic sequence data. By combining supervised and unsupervised methods, it reliably detects both known and de novo contaminants. First, 16S rRNA gene prediction and the inclusion of ultrafast exact alignment techniques allow sequence classification using existing knowledge from databases. Second, reference-free inspection is enabled by the use of state-of-the-art machine learning techniques that include fast, non-linear dimensionality reduction of oligonucleotide signatures and subsequent clustering algorithms that automatically estimate the number of clusters. The latter also enables the removal of any contaminant, yielding a clean sample. Furthermore, given the data complexity and the ill-posedness of clustering, acdc employs bootstrapping techniques to provide statistically profound confidence values. Tested on a large number of samples from diverse sequencing projects, our software is able to quickly and accurately identify contamination. Results are displayed in an interactive user interface. Acdc can be run from the web as well as a dedicated command line application, which allows easy integration into large sequencing project analysis workflows. Conclusions Acdc can reliably detect contamination in single-cell genome data. In addition to database-driven detection, it complements existing tools by its unsupervised techniques, which allow for the detection of de novo contaminants. Our contribution has the potential to drastically reduce the amount of resources put into these processes, particularly in the context of limited availability of reference species. As single-cell genome data continues to grow rapidly, acdc adds to the toolkit of crucial quality assurance tools.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Combining cosmic shear data with correlated photo-z uncertainties: constraints from DESY1 and HSC-DR1

An accurate calibration of the source redshift distribution p(z) is a key aspect in the analysis of cosmic shear data. This, one way or another, requires the use of spectroscopic or high-quality photometric samples. However, the difficulty to obtain colour-complete spectroscopic samples matching the depth of weak lensing catalogs means that the analyses of different cosmic shear datasets often use the same samples for redshift calibration. This introduces a source of statistical and systematic uncertainty that is highly correlated across different weak lensing datasets, and which must be accurately characterised and propagated in order to obtain robust cosmological constraints from their combination. In this paper we introduce a method to quantify and propagate the uncertainties on the source redshift distribution in two different surveys sharing the same calibrating sample. The method is based on an approximate analytical marginalisation of the p(z) statistical uncertainties and the correlated marginalisation of residual systematics. We apply this method to the combined analysis of cosmic shear data from the DESY1 data release and the HSC-DR1 data, using the COSMOS 30-band catalog as a common redshift calibration sample. We find that, although there is significant correlation in the uncertainties on the redshift distributions of both samples, this does not change the final constraints on cosmological parameters significantly. The same is true also for the impact of residual systematic uncertainties from the errors in the COSMOS 30-band photometric redshifts. Additionally, we show that these effects will still be negligible in Stage-IV datasets. Finally, the combination of DESY1 and HSC-DR1 allows us to constrain the "clumpiness" parameter to S 8 = ${0.768}_{-0.017}^{+0.021}$. This corresponds to a ~√(2) improvement in uncertainties with respect to either DES or HSC alone.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dose Assessment of Los Alamos National Laboratory-Derived Residual Radionuclides in Soils within C Tracts (C-2, C-3, and C-4) for Land Transfer Decisions

Three separate Sampling and Analysis Plans (SAPs) were prepared for tracts C-2, C-3, and C-4. The objective of sampling was to confirm, within the stated statistical confidence limits, that the mean levels of potential radioactive residual contamination in soils in the C Tracts are documented, in appropriate units, and are below the 15 mrem/y (150 μSv/y) Screening Action Levels (SALs). Results show that radionuclide concentration upper-bound 95% confidence levels were close to background levels, with the exception of Pu-239 and Cs-137 being slightly elevated above background, and all measurements were below the ALs and meet the real property release criteria for future construction or recreational use. A follow-up ALARA analysis showed that the costs of cleanup of the soil in areas of elevated concentration and confirmatory sampling would far exceed any benefit from dose reduction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Statistical Treatise on Critical Biodiesel (B100) Quality Properties in the United States from 2004-2022

The quality of neat biodiesel (B100) is critical for ensuring biodiesel blends used in diesel-powered vehicles do not adversely impact engine performance. In the United States, B100 is required to meet ASTM International's purity and fuel property requirements in D6751, "Standard Specification for Biodiesel Fuel Blend Stock (B100) for Middle Distillate Fuels." Here we review the development of this standard for the different grades of B100. The BQ-9000 program, which currently covers over 90% of U.S. and Canadian production volumes, is also described. Engine and original equipment manufacturers have expressed a desire for credible, third-party data on values of various ASTM B100 properties in the commercial market to inform their efforts to address future emissions and durability requirements. To address this need, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory published data from analysis and testing of monthly samples from BQ-9000 producers from calendar years 2017-2022, resulting in 300-500 data points (i.e., individual fuel samples) per year. These data and a statistical evaluation of properties including the average, mean, standard deviation, and 95th or 5th percentile are presented. The results show very consistent and high-quality B100 produced in this time frame. Additionally, we review the results of earlier quality surveys conducted in the United States between 2004 and 2011, revealing how quality has changed over time in response to ASTM standard revisions, as well as the significant overall improvement in quality for modern biodiesel production.

ASTM standard↗

A COMPREHENSIVE STATISTICAL DESCRIPTION OF RADIO-THROUGH- γ -RAY SPECTRAL ENERGY DISTRIBUTIONS OF ALL KNOWN BLAZARS

We combined multi-wavelength data for blazars from the Roma-BZCAT catalog and analyzed hundreds of X-ray spectra. We present the fluxes and spectral energy distributions (SEDs), in 12 frequency bands from radio to γ -rays, for a final sample of 2214 blazars. Using a model-independent statistical approach, we looked for systematic trends in the SEDs; the most significant trends involved the radio luminosities and X-ray spectral indices of the blazars. We used a principal component analysis (PCA) to determine the basis vectors of the blazar SEDs and, in order to maximize the size of the sample, imputed missing fluxes using the K -nearest neighbors method. Using more than an order of magnitude more data than was available when Fossati et al. first reported trends of SED shape with blazar luminosity, we confirmed the anti-correlation between radio luminosity and synchrotron peak frequency, although with greater scatter than was seen in the smaller sample. The same trend can be seen between bolometric luminosity and synchrotron peak frequency. Finally, we used all of the available blazar data to determine an empirical SED description that depends only on the radio luminosity at 1.4 GHz and the redshift. We verified that this statistically significant relation was not a result of the luminosity–luminosity correlations that are natural in flux-limited samples (i.e., where the correlation is actually caused by the redshift rather than the luminosity).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Perturbation theory models for LSST-era galaxy clustering: Tests with subpercent mock catalog measurements in Fourier and configuration space

Here, we analyze the clustering of galaxies using the z = 1.006 snapshot of the CosmoDC2 simulation, a high-fidelity synthetic galaxy catalog designed to validate analysis methods for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We present sub-percent measurements of the galaxy auto-correlation and galaxy-dark matter cross correlations in Fourier space and configuration space for a magnitude-limited galaxy sample. At these levels of precision, the statistical errors of the measurement are comparable to the systematic effects present in the simulation and measurement procedure; nevertheless, using a hybrid-PT model, we are able to model non-linear galaxy bias with 0.5% precision up to scales of k max = 0.5 h/Mpc and r min = 4 Mpc/h. While the linear bias parameter is measured with 0.01% precision, other bias parameters are determined with considerably weaker constraints and sometimes bimodal posterior distributions. We compare our fiducial model with lower dimensional models where the higher-order bias parameters are fixed at their co-evolution values and find that leaving these parameters free provides significant improvements in our ability to model small scale information. We also compare bias parameters for galaxy samples defined using different magnitude bands and find agreement between samples containing equal numbers of galaxies. Finally, we compare bias parameters between Fourier space and configuration space and find moderate to significant tension between the two approaches. Although our model is often unable to fit the CosmoDC2 galaxy samples within the 0.1% precision of our measurements, our results suggest that the hybrid-PT model used in this analysis is capable of modeling non-linear galaxy bias within the percent level precision needed for upcoming galaxy surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Statistical methods for efficient design of community surveys of response to noise: Random coefficients regression models

Research studies of residents' responses to noise consist of interviews with samples of individuals who are drawn from a number of different compact study areas. The statistical techniques developed provide a basis for those sample design decisions. These techniques are suitable for a wide range of sample survey applications. A sample may consist of a random sample of residents selected from a sample of compact study areas, or in a more complex design, of a sample of residents selected from a sample of larger areas (e.g., cities). The techniques may be applied to estimates of the effects on annoyance of noise level, numbers of noise events, the time-of-day of the events, ambient noise levels, or other factors. Methods are provided for determining, in advance, how accurately these effects can be estimated for different sample sizes and study designs. Using a simple cost function, they also provide for optimum allocation of the sample across the stages of the design for estimating these effects. These techniques are developed via a regression model in which the regression coefficients are assumed to be random, with components of variance associated with the various stages of a multi-stage sample design.

Tomberlin, T. J.↗

Small-Sample Estimator Decisions – Certainly Uncertain in Human Spaceflight at NASA

Within statistics when estimating means, we rely heavily on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) to aid in our inference, however in cases where the CLT does not apply we begin to be strongly limited in our choices. If a violation to the CLT comes in the form of small samples and unknown population variance, yet we maintain the assumption of normality, the use of t-distributions is perfectly valid. We explore cases where population normality is not assumed, where sample sizes are small, and where some actionable estimate of the central tendency of a distribution is needed such as for spaceflight operational decisions. Here we identify different scenarios based on measures taken from spaceflight, characterizing performance of estimators of central tendency within our set of simulations. We examine bias and variability of standard estimators of central tendency as they apply to varying small sample sizes and varying population distributions. Further work in this area is needed to develop a framework or set of guidelines for individuals set in these situations. Even with limited information, decisions need to be made.

Central Tendency↗

Investigation of oscillations above the acoustic cut-off frequency for a sample of Kepler stars. II. Identifying temporal frequency shifts

ABSTRACT Stellar oscillations with frequencies greater than the acoustic cut-off frequency are not trapped within the star’s interior. Geometric interference between these high-frequency waves produces a peak-like structure in the power spectrum of the star, known as the pseudo-modes. In this study, we aim to analyse 51 stars previously identified (from a sample of 91 Kepler stars) to contain statistically significant evidence for pseudo-modes, to determine if the pseudo-mode frequencies vary in time. We obtained these frequency variations and the uncertainty by the resampled periodogram approach, where periodogram realisations were created from successive, overlapping 90-d time segments, and a cross-correlation function was generated between them. The computed shifts were compared against temporal p-mode frequency shifts and a stellar magnetic activity proxy, $S_{\mathrm{ph}}$. We found that for 16 per cent of the stars pseudo-mode frequency shifts were significantly anticorrelated with p-mode shifts, as is the case for the Sun. However, we also found pseudo-mode and p-mode shifts to be significantly correlated in-phase in 8 per cent of our sample. The remainder showed no significant correlation. We also searched for trends between the maximum variation of pseudo-mode frequency shifts and stellar parameters. Whilst we found no correlation between the maximum variation and stellar photospheric and chromospheric proxies, we found frequency variations to have a greater amplitude for cooler and slower rotating stars, which is in opposition to p-mode frequency shift variation. Temporal changes to pseudo-mode frequencies may be attributable to variations in stellar magnetic activity, and therefore can contribute to our understanding of stellar activity cycles.

Millson, L. J. (ORCID:0009000342542676)↗

Estimating Highway Volumes Using Vehicle Probe Data - Proof of Concept: Preprint

This paper examines the feasibility of using sampled commercial probe data in combination with validated continuous counter data to accurately estimate vehicle volume across the entire roadway network, for any hour during the year. Currently either real time or archived volume data for roadways at specific times are extremely sparse. Most volume data are average annual daily traffic (AADT) measures derived from the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS). Although methods to factor the AADT to hourly averages for typical day of week exist, actual volume data is limited to a sparse collection of locations in which volumes are continuously recorded. This paper explores the use of commercial probe data to generate accurate volume measures that span the highway network providing ubiquitous coverage in space, and specific point-in-time measures for a specific date and time. The paper examines the need for the data, fundamental accuracy limitations based on a basic statistical model that take into account the sampling nature of probe data, and early results from a proof of concept exercise revealing the potential of probe type data calibrated with public continuous count data to meet end user expectations in terms of accuracy of volume estimates.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Mid-IR Properties of an Unbiased AGN Sample of the Local Universe: Emission-Line Diagnostics - 1

\Ve compare mid-IR emission-lines properties, from high-resolution Spitzer IRS spectra of a statistically-complete hard X-ray (14-195 keV) selected sample of nearby (z < 0.05) AGN detected by the Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) aboard Swift. The luminosity distribution for the mid-infrared emission-lines, [O IV] 25.89 microns, [Ne II] 12.81 microns, [Ne III] 15.56 microns and [Ne V] 14.32 microns, and hard X-ray continuum show no differences between Seyfert 1 and Seyfert 2 populations, although six newly discovered BAT AGNs are shown to be under-luminous in [O IV], most likely the result of dust extinction in the host galaxy. The overall tightness of the mid-infrared correlations and BAT luminosities suggests that the emission lines primarily arise in gas ionized by the AGN. We also compared the mid-IR emission-lines in the BAT AGNs with those from published studies of star-forming galaxies and LINERs. We found that the BAT AGN fall into a distinctive region when comparing the [Ne III]/[Ne II] and the [O IV]/[Ne III] quantities. From this we found that sources that have been previously classified in the mid-infrared/optical as AGN have smaller emission line ratios than those found for the BAT AGNs, suggesting that, in our X-ray selected sample, the AGN represents the main contribution to the observed line emission. Overall, we present a different set of emission line diagnostics to distinguish between AGN and star forming galaxies that can be used as a tool to find new AGN.

Weaver, K. A.↗