Optical flow of temperature reveals climate change patterns for agriculture and forestry
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Leonid Shumilo↗
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Ultrasensitive thermo-mechanical bolometer
A thermo-mechanical bolometer includes a substrate and a sensing component mounted on the substrate. The sensing element comprises (a) at least one thermal-actuation component mounted in parallel with the substrate and (b) a strain sensor mounted on the at least one layer of thermal-actuation component. The at least one thermal-actuation component alone or in combination (a) absorbs electromagnetic waves and converts energy from absorbed electromagnetic waves into a change in temperature and (b) converts the change in temperature into a deformation of the at least one layer. The strain sensor comprises a layer of fragments with a gap space between the fragments, wherein the strain sensor senses the deformation or mechanical movement and exhibits a change in electrical resistance in response to the sensed deformation or mechanical movement.
Lin, Yuxuan↗
Chlorophyll fluorescence is a potential indicator to measure photochemical efficiency in early to late soybean maturity groups under changing day lengths and temperatures
In this study, we employed chlorophyll a fluorescence technique, to indicate plant health and status in response to changing day lengths (photoperiods) and temperatures in soybean early and late maturity groups. Chlorophyll a fluorescence study indicates changes in light reactions in photosystem II. Experiments were performed for 3-day lengths (12.5, 13.5, and 14.5 h) and five temperatures (22/14°C, 26/18°C, 30/22°C, 34/26°C, and 40/32°C), respectively. The I-P phase declined for changing day lengths. Active reaction centers decreased at long day length for maturity group III. We observed that low temperatures impacted the acceptor side of photosystem II and partially impacted electron transport toward the photosystem I end electron acceptor. Results emphasized that higher temperatures (40/32°C) triggered damage at the oxygen-evolving complex and decreased electron transport and photosynthesis. We studied specific leaf areas and aboveground mass. Aboveground parameters were consistent with the fluorescence study. Chlorophyll a fluorescence can be used as a potential technique for high-throughput phenotyping methods. The traits selected in the study proved to be possible indicators to provide information on the health status of various maturity groups under changing temperatures and day lengths. These traits can also be deciding criteria for breeding programs to develop inbreed soybean lines for stress tolerance and sensitivity based on latitudinal variations.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Efficacy of Climate Forcings in PDRMIP Models
Quantifying the efficacy of different climate forcings is important for understanding the real‐world climate sensitivity. This study presents a systematic multimodel analysis of different climate driver efficacies using simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Efficacies calculated from instantaneous radiative forcing deviate considerably from unity across forcing agents and models. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a better predictor of global mean near‐surface air temperature (GSAT) change. Efficacies are closest to one when ERF is computed using fixed sea surface temperature experiments and adjusted for land surface temperature changes using radiative kernels. Multimodel mean efficacies based on ERF are close to one for global perturbations of methane, sulfate, black carbon, and insolation, but there is notable intermodel spread. We do not find robust evidence that the geographic location of sulfate aerosol affects its efficacy. GSAT is found to respond more slowly to aerosol forcing than CO2 in the early stages of simulations. Despite these differences, we find that there is no evidence for an efficacy effect on historical GSAT trend estimates based on simulations with an impulse response model, nor on the resulting estimates of climate sensitivity derived from the historical period. However, the considerable intermodel spread in the computed efficacies means that we cannot rule out an efficacy‐induced bias of ±0.4 K in equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling when estimated using the historical GSAT trend.
T B Richardson↗
Flowering Date of Taxonomic Families Predicts Phenological Sensitivity to Temperature: Implications for Forecasting the Effects of Climate Change on Unstudied Taxa
Premise of the study: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in fi rst fl owering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affi nity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied; Methods: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before fl owering and whether families differ signifi cantly in the direction of their phenological shifts; Key results: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; earlyfl owering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-fl owering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here; Conclusions: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-fl owering families (and the absence of earlyfl owering families not sensitive to temperature) may refl ect plasticity in fl owering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.
first flowering date↗
Apparatus and Method for Measuring Air Temperature Ahead of an Aircraft for Controlling a Variable Inlet/Engine Assembly
The apparatus and method employ remote sensing to measure the air temperature a sufficient distance ahead of the aircraft to allow time for a variable inlet/engine assembly to be reconfigured in response to the measured temperature, to avoid inlet unstart and/or engine compressor stall. In one embodiment, the apparatus of the invention has a remote sensor for measuring at least one air temperature ahead of the vehicle and an inlet control system for varying the inlet. The remote sensor determines a change in temperature value using at least one temperature measurement and prior temperature measurements corresponding to the location of the aircraft. The control system uses the change in air temperature value to vary the inlet configuration to maintain the position of the shock wave during the arrival of the measured air in the inlet. In one embodiment, the method of the invention includes measuring at least one air temperature ahead of the vehicle, determining an air temperature at the vehicle from prior air temperature measurements, determining a change in temperature value using the air temperature at the vehicle and the at least one air temperature measurement ahead of the vehicle, and using the change in temperature value to-reposition the airflow inlet, to cause the shock wave to maintain substantially the same position within the inlet as the airflow temperature changes within the inlet.
Gary, Bruce L.↗
Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 °C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 °C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.d-2090s.
Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMI↗
Human and Natural Influences on the Changing Thermal Structure of the Atmosphere
Since the late 1970s, satellite-based instruments have monitored global changes in atmospheric temperature. These measurements reveal multidecadal tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, punctuated by short-term volcanic signals of reverse sign. Similar long- and short-term temperature signals occur in model simulations driven by human-caused changes in atmospheric composition and natural variations in volcanic aerosols. Most previous comparisons of modeled and observed atmospheric temperature changes have used results from individual models and individual observational records. In contrast, we rely on a large multimodel archive and multiple observational datasets. We show that a human-caused latitude/altitude pattern of atmospheric temperature change can be identified with high statistical confidence in satellite data. Results are robust to current uncertainties in models and observations. Virtually all previous research in this area has attempted to discriminate an anthropogenic signal from internal variability. Here, we present evidence that a human-caused signal can also be identified relative to the larger "total" natural variability arising from sources internal to the climate system, solar irradiance changes, and volcanic forcing. Consistent signal identification occurs because both internal and total natural variability (as simulated by state-of-the-art models) cannot produce sustained global-scale tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. Our results provide clear evidence for a discernible human influence on the thermal structure of the atmosphere.
Santer, Benjamin D.↗
Martian carbonates in ALH 84001: Textural, elemental, and stable isotopic compositional evidence on their formation
Martian orthopyroxenite ALH 84001 is unusual compared to other martian meteorites in its abundance of Mg-Fe-Ca carbonites. Becasue textural evidence indicates that these carbonates are undoubtedly of martian origin, we have undertaken stable isotopic studies to elucidate their origin by evaluating whether they represent primordial martian C that was outgassing from the mantle of Mars, or volatile additions to the ALH 84001 protolith that equilibrated with the martian atmosphere. If precipitation occurred in a closed system then the isotopic results are compatible with the observed chemical zonation. A unique temperature of formation can be calculated using the difference in C-13 and O-18 between the Fe and Mg carbonates, assuming that precipitation occurred at a constant temperature. Precipitation of approximately one-half of the CO2 reservoir at 320 C can account for the observed values, with the original CO2 reservoir having a delta C-13 of approximately 45% and delta O-18 of approximately 22%. If carbonate precipitated in equilibrium with a large isotopically homogeneous CO2 reservoir (open system), isotopic differences must be attributed to a change in temperature of at least several hundreds of degrees. This temperature change is compatible with a calculated range of temperatures based on carbonate geothermometry. Clearly, carbonate in ALH 84001 is in delta O-18 disequilibrium with orthopyroxene groundmass. Most likely, the carbonate precipitated from a fluid that equilibrated with the martian atmosphere. The deposits or fluids in equilibrium with these deposits were remobilized in the crust producing the carbonate in ALH 84001. This observation establishes a link for the first time between the atmospheric and lithospheric C and O pools that reside on Mars.
Romanek, C. S.↗
Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6
Abstract. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 ∘C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Variation of Surface Air Temperature in Relation to El Nino and Cataclysmic Volcanic Eruptions, 1796-1882
During the contemporaneous interval of 1796-1882 a number of significant decreases in temperature are found in the records of Central England and Northern Ireland. These decreases appear to be related to the occurrences of El Nino and/or cataclysmic volcanic eruptions. For example, a composite of residual temperatures of the Central England dataset, centering temperatures on the yearly onsets of 20 El Nino of moderate to stronger strength, shows that, on average, the change in temperature varied by about +/- 0.3 C from normal being warmer during the boreal fall-winter leading up to the El Nino year and cooler during the spring-summer of the El Nino year. Also, the influence of El Nino on Central England temperatures appears to last about 1-2 years. Similarly, a composite of residual temperatures of the Central England dataset, centering temperatures on the month of eruption for 26 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions, shows that, on average, the change in temperature decreased by about 0.1 - 0.2 C, typically, 1-2 years after the eruption, although for specific events, like Tambora, the decrease was considerably greater. Additionally, tropical eruptions appear to produce greater changes in temperature than extratropical eruptions, and eruptions occurring in boreal spring-summer appear to produce greater changes in temperature than those occurring in fall-winter.
Wilson, Robert M.↗
Improved Readout Scheme for SQUID-Based Thermometry
An improved readout scheme has been proposed for high-resolution thermometers, (HRTs) based on the use of superconducting quantum interference devices (SQUIDs) to measure temperature- dependent magnetic susceptibilities. The proposed scheme would eliminate counting ambiguities that arise in the conventional scheme, while maintaining the superior magnetic-flux sensitivity of the conventional scheme. The proposed scheme is expected to be especially beneficial for HRT-based temperature control of multiplexed SQUIDbased bolometer sensor arrays. SQUID-based HRTs have become standard for measuring and controlling temperatures in the sub-nano-Kelvin temperature range in a broad range of low-temperature scientific and engineering applications. A typical SQUIDbased HRT that utilizes the conventional scheme includes a coil wound on a core made of a material that has temperature- dependent magnetic susceptibility in the temperature range of interest. The core and the coil are placed in a DC magnetic field provided either by a permanent magnet or as magnetic flux inside a superconducting outer wall. The aforementioned coil is connected to an input coil of a SQUID. Changes in temperature lead to changes in the susceptibility of the core and to changes in the magnetic flux detected by the SQUID. The SQUID readout instrumentation is capable of measuring magnetic-flux changes that correspond to temperature changes down to a noise limit .0.1 nK/Hz1/2. When the flux exceeds a few fundamental flux units, which typically corresponds to a temperature of .100 nK, the SQUID is reset. The temperature range can be greatly expanded if the reset events are carefully tracked and counted, either by a computer running appropriate software or by a dedicated piece of hardware.
Penanen, Konstantin↗
Temperature Induced Alpha Factor
Temperature effects can be important in short pulse propagation or in CW operation of VCSELs. In those cases, the optical susceptibility function is, in general, a function of carrier density and plasma and/or lattice temperature(s). Just as there is an alpha factor induced by the density change (density alpha), there are alpha factors induced by lattice or plasma temperature change (temperature alphas). The density alpha factor has been studied quite extensively, while the temperature alpha factors have not been computed for any structure. I will report on my first calculations of alpha factors induced by the plasma and lattice temperature change for GaAs/AlGaAs quantum wells using microscopic theory. Besides, the temperature dependence of the density alpha factor is also considered.
Ning, C. Z.↗
Biaxial thermo-mechanical fatigue
Stress-strain and durability information is often desirable for situations in which strain and temperature are changing simultaneously. To obtain such information, strain controlled uniaxial push-pull tests have typically been done. In order to control the mechanical strain, it is necessary in such tests to compute the mechanical strain from the total measured strain using measured temperature and the thermal expansion properties of the specimen. A system for conducting torsional thermomechanical tests is described which has the great advantage that the torsional strain is unaffected by the changing temperature and thus real time computations of quantities is not required for control of the test and the mechanical strain need not be determined from the subtraction of two measured qnantities as is the case in the uniaxial test. In addition to describing torsional thermomechanical tests, guidelines for software to be used in running biaxial thermomechanical tests will also be presented.
Jordan, Eric H.↗
Implications of solar irradiance variability upon long-term changes in the Earth's atmospheric temperatures
From 1979 through 1987, it is believed that variability in the incoming solar energy played a significant role in changing the Earth's climate. Using high-precision spacecraft radiometric measurements, the incoming total solar irradiance (total amount of solar power per unit area) and the Earth's mean, global atmospheric temperatures were found to vary in phase with each other. The observed irradiance and temperature changes appeared to be correlated with the 11-year cycle of solar magnetic activity. During the period from 1979 through 1985, both the irradiance and temperature decreased. From 1985 to 1987, they increased. The irradiance changed approximately 0.1 percent, while the temperature varied as much as 0.6 C. During the 1979-1987 period, the temperatures were forecasted to rise linearly because of the anthropogenic build-up of carbon dioxide and the hypothesized 'global warming', 'greenhouse effect', scenarios. Contrary to these scenarios, the temperatures were found to vary in a periodic manner in phase with the solar irradiance changes. The observed correlations between irradiance and temperature variabilily suggest that the mean, global temperature of the Earth may decline between 1990 and 1997 as solar magnetic activity decreases.
Lee, Robert B., III↗
Changes of snow cover, temperature, and radiative heat balance over the Northern Hemisphere
Contemporary large-scale changes in satellite-derived snow cover were examined over the Northern Hemisphere extratropical land (NEL) areas. These areas encompass 55% of the land in the Northern Hemisphere. Snow cover (S) transient regions, the 'centers of action' relative to interannual variations of snow cover, were identified for the years 1972-1992. During these years a global retreat in snow cover extent (SE) occurred in the second half of the hydrologic year (April-September). Mean annual SE has decreased by 10% (2.3 x 10(exp 6) sq km). Negative trends account for one-third to one-half of the interannual continental variance of SE. The historical influence of S on the planetary albedo and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is investigated. The mean annual response of the S feedback on the radiative balance (RB) is negative and suggests a largescale heat redistribution. During autumn and early winter (up to January), however, the feedback of S on the planetary RB may be positive. Only by February does the cooling effect of S (due to albedo increase) dominate the planetary warming due to reduced OLR over the S. Despite a wintertime maximum in SE, the feedback in spring has the greatest magnitude. The global retreat of spring SE should lead to a positive feedback on temperature. Based on observed records of S, changes in RB are calculated that parallel an observed increase of spring temperature during the past 20 years. The results provide a partial explanation of the significant increase in spring surface air temperature observed over the land areas of the Northern Hemisphere during the past century. The mean SE in years with an El Nino and La Nina were also evaluated. El Nino events are generally accompanied by increased SE over the NEL during the first half of the hydrological year. In the second half of the hydrologic year (spring and summer), the El Nino events are accompanied by a global retreat of SE.
Groisman, Pavel YA.↗
Changes in Annual Extremes of Daily Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP6 Models
This study presents an analysis of daily temperature and precipitation extremes with return periods ranging from 2 to 50 years in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) multimodel ensemble of simulations. Judged by similarity with reanalyses, the new-generation models simulate the present-day temperature and precipitation extremes reasonably well. In line with previous CMIP simulations, the new simulations continue to project a large-scale picture of more frequent and more intense hot temperature extremes and precipitation extremes and vanishing cold extremes under continued global warming. Changes in temperature extremes outpace changes in global annual mean surface air temperature (GSAT) over most landmasses, while changes in precipitation extremes follow changes in GSAT globally at roughly the Clausius–Clapeyron rate of ~7% °C –1 . Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes normalized with respect to GSAT do not depend strongly on the choice of forcing scenario or model climate sensitivity, and do not vary strongly over time, but with notable regional variations. Over the majority of land regions, the projected intensity increases and relative frequency increases tend to be larger for more extreme hot temperature and precipitation events than for weaker events. To obtain robust estimates of these changes at local scales, large initial-condition ensemble simulations are needed. Appropriate spatial pooling of data from neighboring grid cells within individual simulations can, to some extent, reduce the needed ensemble size.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Addressing Coldwater Temperature Impairment in a Changing Climate
Climate change is concerning for fisheries professionals because increased water temperatures threaten coldwater habitats, which are vital to recreational and commercial fisheries and keystone species. The Clean Water Act provides a legal framework to identify and address water quality impairments including those associated with temperature. However, although this framework provides a basic strategy to identify impairments, develop total maximum daily loads, and reduce pollution, it does not explicitly consider the challenges of a changing climate in addressing water quality impairments. Clean Water Act administrators and fisheries professionals can facilitate temperature restoration planning and implementation using the Clean Water Act framework to link stakeholders to the management of coldwater resources. Stakeholder engagement and collaboration, robust local monitoring, and incorporating climate resilience into restoration planning and implementation will promote comprehensive management of temperature impairments and the effects of climate change on fisheries.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗