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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,063 records · Page 59
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DOE OSTI2017

Advances in Cross-Cutting Ideas for Computational Climate Science

This report presents results from the DOE-sponsored workshop titled, ``Advancing X-Cutting Ideas for Computational Climate Science Workshop,'' known as AXICCS, held on September 12--13, 2016 in Rockville, MD. The workshop brought together experts in climate science, computational climate science, computer science, and mathematics to discuss interesting but unsolved science questions regarding climate modeling and simulation, promoted collaboration among the diverse scientists in attendance, and brainstormed about possible tools and capabilities that could be developed to help address them. Emerged from discussions at the workshop were several research opportunities that the group felt could advance climate science significantly. These include (1) process-resolving models to provide insight into important processes and features of interest and inform the development of advanced physical parameterizations, (2) a community effort to develop and provide integrated model credibility, (3) including, organizing, and managing increasingly connected model components that increase model fidelity yet complexity, and (4) treating Earth system models as one interconnected organism without numerical or data based boundaries that limit interactions. The group also identified several cross-cutting advances in mathematics, computer science, and computational science that would be needed to enable one or more of these big ideas. It is critical to address the need for organized, verified, and optimized software, which enables the models to grow and continue to provide solutions in which the community can have confidence. Effectively utilizing the newest computer hardware enables simulation efficiency and the ability to handle output from increasingly complex and detailed models. This will be accomplished through hierarchical multiscale algorithms in tandem with new strategies for data handling, analysis, and storage. These big ideas and cross-cutting technologies for enabling breakthrough climate simulation advancements also need the "glue" of outreach and learning across the scientific domains to be successful. The workshop identified several strategies to allow productive, continuous engagement across those who have a broad knowledge of the various angles of the problem. Specific ideas to foster education and tools to make material progress were discussed. Examples include follow-on cross-cutting meetings that enable unstructured discussions of the types this workshop fostered. A concerted effort to recruit undergraduate and graduate students from all relevant domains and provide them experience, training, and networking across their immediate expertise is needed. This will broaden and expand their exposure to the future needs and solutions, and provide a pipeline of scientists with a diversity of knowledge and know-how. Providing real-world experience with subject matter experts from multiple angles may also motivate the students to attack these problems and even come up with the missing solutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A hybrid deep neural operator/finite element method for ice-sheet modeling

One of the most challenging and consequential problems in climate modeling is to provide probabilistic projections of sea level rise. A large part of the uncertainty of sea level projections is due to uncertainty in ice sheet dynamics. At the moment, accurate quantification of the uncertainty is hindered by the cost of ice sheet computational models. In this work we develop a hybrid approach to approximate existing ice sheet models at a fraction of their cost. Our approach consists of replacing the finite element model for the momentum equations for the ice velocity, the most expensive part of an ice sheet model, with a Deep Operator Network, while we retain a classic finite element discretization for the evolution of the ice thickness. We show that the resulting hybrid model is very accurate and it is an order of magnitude faster than the traditional finite element model. Further, a distinctive feature of the proposed model, compared to other neural network approaches, is that it can handle high-dimensional parameter spaces (parameter fields) such as the basal friction at the bed of the glacier and can therefore be used for generating samples for uncertainty quantification. Further, we study the impact of hyper-parameters, number of unknowns and correlation length of the parameter distribution on the training and accuracy of the Deep Operator Network on a synthetic ice sheet model. We then target the evolution of the Humboldt glacier in Greenland and show that our hybrid model can provide accurate statistics of the glacier mass loss and can be effectively used to accelerate the quantification of uncertainty.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Future Changes of Subseasonal Precipitation Variability in North America During Winter Under Global Warming

Changes in subseasonal precipitation variability have important implications for predictability of weather and climate extreme. Here we explore the mechanisms that lead to future changes in subseasonal precipitation variability in North America during winter based on 20 state-of-the-art climate models. Modeling evidences indicate that in a warmer climate, the subseasonal precipitation variability consistently increases over most of North America, with intensified swing between the wet and dry extremes, but declines over Mexico. Using a moisture budget decomposition framework, two opposing mechanisms are established: the thermodynamic component from increasing moisture due to global warming intensifies the subseasonal precipitation variability, while the dynamic component from the projected reduction in subseasonal rainfall-related circulation variability has an opposite effect. Altogether, the thermodynamic effect wins the tug of war at the mid-to-high latitudes over most of North America, while the dynamic effect overwhelms the thermodynamic effect in Mexico, creating distinct changes in subseasonal precipitation variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Comparison of Daytime Low-Level Cloud Properties Derived From GOES and ARM SGP Measurements

Large-scale satellite data are critical for both verifying and improving general circulation model parameterizations of clouds and radiation for climate prediction. For reliable application of satellite data sets in cloud processes and climate models, it is important to have a reasonable estimate of the errors in the derived cloud properties. The daytime single-layered low-level cloud properties retrieved by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite system (GOES) are compared with ground-based observations and retrievals over the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility from June 1998 to December 2006. The GOES retrievals are made via the Visible-Infrared Solar-infrared Split-window Technique. They are spatially averaged within a 0.15° × 0.15° box centered on the ARM SGP site, and the ARM surface observations are temporally averaged ±15 min around the GOES scans to produce collocated pairs. Comparisons are made for monthly means, diurnal means, and one-to-one GOES and ARM collocated pairs. GOES T eff is highly correlated with ARM T top cloud temperature, having an R 2 value of 0.75, though GOES exhibits a cold bias. GOES-retrieved τ and liquid water path have very good agreement with ARM retrievals with R 2 s of 0.45 and 0.47, while r e (GOES), on average, is about 2 μm greater than ARM r e . An examination of solar and viewing geometry has shown that GOES-retrieved mean r e and τ values are impacted by solar zenith angle and especially scattering angle, which is not unexpected and needs to be accounted for by users.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Development and Evaluation of an Explicit Treatment of Aerosol Processes at Cloud Scale Within a Multi‐Scale Modeling Framework (MMF)

Abstract Modeling the aerosol lifecycle in traditional global climate models (GCM) is challenging for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the coarse grid. The multiscale modeling framework (MMF), in which a cloud resolving model replaces conventional parameterizations of cloud processes within each GCM grid column, provides a promising framework to address this challenge. Here we develop a new version of MMF that for the first time treats aerosol processes at cloud scale to improve the aerosol‐cloud interaction representation in the model. We demonstrate that the model with the explicit aerosol treatments shows significant improvements of many aspects of the simulated aerosols compared to the previous version of MMF with aerosols parameterized at the GCM grid scale. The explicit aerosol treatments produce a significant increase of the column burdens of black carbon (BC), primary organic aerosol, and sulfate by up to 40% in many remote regions, a decrease of the sea‐salt aerosol burdens by 40% in remote regions. These differences are caused by the differences in aerosol convective transport and wet removal between these two models. The new model also shows reduced bias of BC surface concentration in North America and BC vertical profiles in the high latitudes. However, the biased‐high BC concentrations in the upper troposphere over the remote Pacific regions remain, requiring further improvements on other process representations (e.g., secondary activation neglected in the model).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Response of Precipitation Extremes to the Twentieth- and Twenty-First-Century Global Temperature Change in a Comprehensive Suite of CESM1 Large Ensemble Simulation: Revisiting the Role of Forcing Agents Vs. the Role of Forcing Magnitudes

The response of precipitation extremes (PEs) to global warming is found to be nonlinear in Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and other global climate models (Pendergrass et al., 2019), which led to the concern that it is not accurate to approximate the response of PE to a single forcing as the difference between simulations with all forcing agents and those that exclude one specific forcing. This calls into question previous model-based results that the sensitivity of PE with warming due to aerosol forcing is significantly larger than that due to greenhouse gases (GHGs). We reevaluate the PE sensitivity to GHGs and aerosols using available CESM1 ensemble simulations. We show that although the PE response to warming is nonlinear in CESM1, especially for the high warming projected in the twenty-first-century, PE sensitivity to aerosols is still significantly stronger than that due to GHGs when the comparison is made within similar warming regimes to avoid the bias induced by the nonlinear behavior. But the difference is smaller than previously estimated. We also conclude that the additivity assumption is largely valid to isolate the PE response due to aerosol forcing from the paired simulations including the “all forcing” experiment when the warming regime is small (e.g., 1°C–2°C in the next few decades when aerosol forcing is projected to decline and becomes a major source of uncertainty for model projection).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exposing Process‐Level Biases in a Global Cloud Permitting Model With ARM Observations

The emergence of global convective‐permitting models (GCPMs) represents a significant advancement in climate modeling, offering improved representation of deep convection and complex precipitation patterns. In this study, we evaluate the performance of the Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) using its doubly periodic configuration (DP‐SCREAM) against large eddy simulations and modern observational data sets from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program. We introduce several new transitional cloud regime cases, such as the transition from shallow to deep convection and from stratocumulus to cumulus, as well as cold‐air outbreak scenarios. The results reveal both strengths and limitations of SCREAM, particularly in the accurate simulation of cloud transitions and midlevel convection, with varying degrees of sensitivity to horizontal and vertical resolution. Despite improvements at higher resolutions, key biases remain, including the abrupt transition from shallow to deep convection and the lack of congestus clouds. These findings underscore the need for further refinement in turbulence parameterizations and vertical grid resolution in GCPMs.

Bogenschutz, Peter A. [Lawrence Livermore National↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Methodology for Estimating the Energy and Moisture Budget of the Convective Boundary Layer Using Continuous Ground-Based Infrared Spectrometer Observations

Abstract Land–atmosphere interactions play a critical role in both the atmospheric water and energy cycles. Changes in soil moisture and vegetation alter the partitioning of surface water and energy fluxes, influencing diurnal evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The mixing-diagram framework has proven useful in understanding the evolution of the heat and moisture budget within the convective boundary layer (CBL). We demonstrate that observations from the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains site provide all of the needed inputs needed for the mixing-diagram framework, allowing us to quantify the impact from the surface fluxes, advection, radiative heating, encroachment, and entrainment on the evolution of the CBL. Profiles of temperature and humidity retrieved from the ground-based infrared spectrometer [Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI)] are a critical component in this analysis. Large-eddy simulation results demonstrate that mean mixed-layer values derived are shown to be critical to close the energy and moisture budgets. A novel approach demonstrated here is the use of network of AERIs and Doppler lidars to quantify the advective fluxes of heat and moisture. The framework enables the estimation of the entrainment fluxes as a residual, providing a way to observe the entrainment fluxes without using multiple lidar systems. The high temporal resolution of the AERI observations enables the morning, midday, and afternoon evolution of the CBL to be quantified. This work provides a new way to use observations in this framework to evaluate weather and climate models. Significance Statement The energy and moisture budget of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is influenced by multiple sources, and accurately representing this evolution in numerical models is critical for weather forecasts and climate predictions. The mixing-diagram approach, driven by profiling observations as illustrated here, provides a powerful way to quantify the contributions from each of these sources. In particular, the energy and moisture mixed into the PBL from above the PBL can be determined accurately from ground-based remote sensors using this approach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

CMIP6-based Multi-model Streamflow Projections over the Conterminous US, Version 1.1

This dataset presents an ensemble of streamflow projections covering the conterminous United States (CONUS), developed to support the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). Multiple Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs) were downscaled using either statistical (DBCCA) or dynamical (RegCM) downscaling methods, based on two meteorological reference datasets (Daymet and Livneh). Subsequently, the downscaled precipitation, temperature, and wind speed data were used to drive two calibrated hydrologic models (VIC and PRMS), with total runoff routed through the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) routing model, producing an ensemble of streamflow projections across 2.7 million NHDPlusV2 stream reaches across the CONUS. Each ensemble member covers the 1980-2019 baseline and 2020-2059 near-future periods under the high-end (SSP585) emission scenario. Additionally, using only DBCCA and Daymet, the projections extend to the 2060-2099 far-future period and encompass three additional emission scenarios (SSP370, SSP245, and SSP126). This dataset is designed to support the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). For further details, refer to Kao et al. (2022), Rastogi et al. (2022), and Ghimire et al. (2023).

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

No Snowball on Habitable Tidally Locked Planets

The TRAPPIST-1, Proxima Centauri, and LHS 1140 systems are the most exciting prospects for future follow-up observations of potentially inhabited planets. All of the planets orbit nearby M-stars and are likely tidally locked in 1:1 spin–orbit states, which motivates the consideration of the effects that tidal locking might have on planetary habitability. On Earth, periods of global glaciation (snowballs) may have been essential for habitability and remote signs of life (biosignatures) because they are correlated with increases in the complexity of life and in the atmospheric oxygen concentration. In this paper, we investigate the snowball bifurcation (sudden onset of global glaciation) on tidally locked planets using both an energy balance model and an intermediate-complexity global climate model. We show that tidally locked planets are unlikely to exhibit a snowball bifurcation as a direct result of the spatial pattern of insolation they receive. Instead, they will smoothly transition from partial to complete ice coverage and back. A major implication of this work is that tidally locked planets with an active carbon cycle should not be found in a snowball state. Moreover, this work implies that tidally locked planets near the outer edge of the habitable zone with low CO{sub 2} outgassing fluxes will equilibrate with a small unglaciated substellar region rather than cycling between warm and snowball states. More work is needed to determine how the lack of a snowball bifurcation might affect the development of life on a tidally locked planet.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): Experimental protocol for CMIP6

The phrasing of the first of three questions motivating CMIP6 – “How does the Earth system respond to forcing?” – suggests that forcing is always well-known, yet the radiative forcing to which this question refers has historically been uncertain in coordinated experiments even as understanding of how best to infer radiative forcing has evolved. The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) endorsed by CMIP6 seeks to provide a foundation for answering the question through three related activities: (i) accurate characterization of the effective radiative forcing relative to a near-preindustrial baseline and careful diagnosis of the components of this forcing; (ii) assessment of the absolute accuracy of clear-sky radiative transfer parameterizations against reference models on the global scales relevant for climate modeling; and (iii) identification of robust model responses to tightly specified aerosol radiative forcing from 1850 to present. Complete characterization of effective radiative forcing can be accomplished with 180 years (Tier 1) of atmosphere-only simulation using a sea-surface temperature and sea ice concentration climatology derived from the host model's preindustrial control simulation. Assessment of parameterization error requires trivial amounts of computation but the development of small amounts of infrastructure: new, spectrally detailed diagnostic output requested as two snapshots at present-day and preindustrial conditions, and results from the model's radiation code applied to specified atmospheric conditions. In conclusion, the search for robust responses to aerosol changes relies on the CMIP6 specification of anthropogenic aerosol properties; models using this specification can contribute to RFMIP with no additional simulation, while those using a full aerosol model are requested to perform at least one and up to four 165-year coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations at Tier 1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Science Area 1: Standard Award: Model-Data Fusion to Examine Multiscale Dynamical Controls on Snow Cover and Critical Zone Moisture Inputs (Final Report)

In many mountain watersheds of the world, seasonal snowpacks play an important role as natural reservoirs of water. Seasonal snowpacks accumulate water during cold, wet winter months that subsequently melts. Downstream communities depend on water from melting seasonal snowpacks to support agricultural, industrial, and municipal water needs. Rapidly melting snowpacks can also present a flooding hazard, particularly if snowpacks melt at rates faster than anticipated and where adequate reservoir capacity is unavailable to buffer river flows associated with melt. The spatial and temporal dynamics of snow accumulation and melt also play an important role in supporting upland ecosystems in mountain landscapes. Snowmelt provides soil moisture that enable terrestrial ecosystem productivity and exert control on soil microorganisms that play important roles in global carbon cycles. Climate warming is gradually decreasing the amount of precipitation in mountain watersheds arriving as snow, presenting potentially profound disruptions to mountain ecosystems, as well as downstream delivery of water. The overarching goal of this project was to understand how interactions between the near-surface atmosphere and surface topography control the input, accumulation, retention, and release of water from mountain snowpacks. Over a 5-year period, this project pursued an approach combining high-resolution regional climate modeling, satellite and airborne remote sensing data, and ground-based observations to develop and analyze benchmark datasets to address overarching science questions and hypotheses. Key products include a continuous, long-term, high spatiotemporal resolution (1 km/1 hr) dataset characterizing key climate variables in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The dataset included historical estimates of precipitation, temperature, humidity, solar and longwave radiation, and wind speeds. Additionally, the project developed a 20+ year long, 30 m spatial, daily temporal multi-sensor dataset characterizing snow presence/absence in the East/Taylor River watersheds in the Central Rocky Mountains of Colorado. The project supported training of 1 postdoctoral scholar, 1 Ph.D. student, and 1 M.S. student.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Soil Water and Temperature System (SWATS) Instrument Handbook

The soil water and temperature system (SWATS) provides vertical profiles of soil temperature, soil-water potential, and soil moisture as a function of depth below the ground surface at hourly intervals. The temperature profiles are measured directly by in situ sensors at the Central Facility and many of the extended facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. The soil-water potential and soil moisture profiles are derived from measurements of soil temperature rise in response to small inputs of heat. Atmospheric scientists use the data in climate models to determine boundary conditions and to estimate the surface energy flux. The data are also useful to hydrologists, soil scientists, and agricultural scientists for determining the state of the soil.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

ARM West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) Field Campaign Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) is the most technologically advanced atmospheric and climate science campaign yet fielded in Antarctica. AWARE was motivated be recent concern about the impact of cryospheric mass loss on global sea level rise. Specifically, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is now the second largest contributor to rising sea level, after the Greenland Ice Sheet. As steadily warming ocean water erodes the grounding lines of WAIS components where they meet the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas, the retreating grounding lines moving inland and downslope on the underlying terrain imply mechanical instability of the entire WAIS. There is evidence that this point of instability may have already been reached, perhaps signifying more rapid loss of WAIS ice mass. At the same time, the mechanical support provided by adjacent ice shelves, and also the fundamental stability of exposed ice cliffs at the ice sheet grounding lines, will be adversely impacted by a warming atmosphere that causes more frequent episodes of surface melting. The surface meltwater damages the ice shelves and ice cliffs through hydrofracturing. With the increasing concern regarding these rapid cryospheric changes, AWARE was motivated by the need to (a) diagnose the surface energy balance in West Antarctica as related to both summer season climatology and potential surface melting, and (b) improve global climate model (GCM) performance over Antarctica, such that future cryospheric projections can be more reliable.

aerosol observing system↗
DOE OSTI2025

ORBIT-2 Dataset for Scaling Exascale Vision Foundation Models for Weather and Climate Downscaling

This dataset release corresponds to the work conducted in ORBIT-2: Scaling Exascale Vision Foundation Models for Weather and Climate Downscaling, where large-scale AI methods were applied to improve climate and weather resolution. The collection integrates four widely used, publicly available datasets: ERA5, PRISM, DAYMET, and IMERG. To prepare the data for ORBIT-2 model training and evaluation, we applied a preprocessing pipeline that generates paired low-resolution and high-resolution samples, enabling supervised downscaling experiments. The transformation from coarse to fine scales was performed using bilinear regridding, consistent with the procedures described in WeatherBench2, a community benchmark for weather and climate AI models. This dataset supports the development and evaluation of foundation models designed for weather and climate downscaling at exascale. Additional details on methodology and applications can be found in Wang et al., ORBIT-2 (arXiv:2505.04802, 2025).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Intercomparison of Dynamically and Statistically Downscaled Climate Change Projections over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

Downscaling of global climate model (GCMs) simulations is a key element of regional-to-local-scale climate change projections that can inform impact assessments, long-term planning, and resource management in different sectors. Here, we conduct an intercomparison between statistically and dynamically downscaled GCMs simulations using the hybrid delta (HD) and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model, respectively, over the Midwest and Great Lakes region to 1) validate their performance in reproducing extreme daily precipitation (P) and daily maximum temperature (T max ) for summer and winter and 2) evaluate projections of extremes in the future. Our results show the HD statistical downscaling approach, which includes large-scale bias correction of GCM inputs, can reproduce observed extreme P and T max reasonably well for both summer and winter. However, raw historical WRF simulations show significant bias in both extreme P and T max for both seasons. Interestingly, the convection-permitting WRF simulation at 4-km grid spacing does not produce better results for seasonal extremes than the WRF simulation at 12 km using a parameterized convection scheme. Despite a broad similarity for winter extreme P projections, the projected changes in the future summer storms are quite different between downscaling methods; WRF simulations show substantial increases in summer extreme precipitation, while the changes projected by the HD approach exhibit moderate decreases overall. The WRF simulations at 4 km also show a pronounced decoupling effect between seasonal totals and extreme daily P for summer, which suggests that there could be more intense summer extremes at two different time scales, with more severe individual convective storms combined with longer summer droughts at the end of the twenty-first century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mesoscale Convective Systems in a Superparameterized E3SM Simulation at High Resolution

Accurately representing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is crucial to simulating the energy and water cycles in global climate models. Using a novel MCS identification and tracking algorithm applied to observations and model simulations, we evaluate how well the Energy Exascale Earth System Model simulates MCSs over the central US. Simulations performed by E3SM at 25 km grid spacing with (SP-E3SM) and without (E3SM) superparameterization are compared and evaluated against observations using multiple metrics highlighting important MCS characteristics. Compared to E3SM, SP-E3SM better simulates MCS number and MCS precipitation amount, diurnal cycle, propagation, and the probability distribution of precipitation rate in both spring and summer. The improvement from SP is partly contributed by improvement in simulating the large-scale environments, featuring enhanced atmospheric low-level moisture and larger moisture transport to the central US relative to E3SM. However, SP-E3SM still underestimates MCS precipitation amount, particularly in summer. This underestimation is closely related to the negative bias in MCS precipitation intensity, although the drier environments simulated during summer also contributes to underestimation of MCS frequency. Without SP, the larger bias in MCS precipitation amount is closely related to the negative bias in MCS frequency, while the substantial dry bias in the large-scale environments also contributes to underestimation of MCS intensity. Our results suggest that SP improves MCS simulation by improving modeling of the large-scale environments and convection initiation, which are both major limiting factors in E3SM even at 25 km grid spacing where deep convection is represented by a cumulus parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation for Projections of Winter Mean Precipitation in Europe

Climate models generally project an increase in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index under a future high-emissions scenario, alongside an increase in winter precipitation in northern Europe and a decrease in southern Europe. The extent to which future forced NAO trends are important for European winter precipitation trends and their uncertainty remains unclear. We show using the Multimodel Large Ensemble Archive that the NAO plays a small role in northern European mean winter precipitation projections for 2080–2099. Conversely, half of the model uncertainty in southern European mean winter precipitation projections is potentially reducible through improved understanding of the NAO projections. Extreme positive NAO winters increase in frequency in most models as a consequence of mean NAO changes. These extremes also have more severe future precipitation impacts, largely because of mean precipitation changes. This has implications for future resilience to extreme positive NAO winters, which frequently have severe societal impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗