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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

3D Printing of Customized Li‐Ion Batteries with Thick Electrodes

Abstract The growing demand for rechargeable lithium‐ion batteries (LIBs) with higher capacity in customized geometries underscores the need for new battery materials, architectures, and assembly strategies. Here, the design, fabrication, and electrochemical performance of fully 3D printed LIBs composed of thick semisolid electrodes that exhibit high areal capacity are reported. Specifically, semisolid cathode and anode inks, as well as UV curable packaging and separator inks for direct writing of LIBs in arbitrary geometries are created. These fully 3D printed and packaged LIBs, which are encased between two glassy carbon current collectors, deliver an areal capacity of 4.45 mAh cm −2 at a current density of 0.14 mA cm −2 , which is equivalent to 17.3 Ah L −1 . The ability to produce high‐performance LIBs in customized form factors opens new avenues for integrating batteries directly within 3D printed objects.

Wei, Teng‐Sing↗

Evaluation of measuring thermal conductivity of isotropic and anisotropic thermally insulating materials by transient plane source (Hot Disk) technique

The transient plane source (TPS) technique, also referred as the Hot Disk method, has been widely used due to its ability to measure the thermal properties of an extensive range of materials (solids, liquids, and powder). Recently, it has been recognized that typical Hot Disk sensors can influence TPS results of thermally insulating materials and lead to an overestimation of thermal conductivity. Although improvements have been proposed, they have not yet been implemented in the commercial TPS, leaving researchers with non-standardized modifications or options provided by a commercial Hot Disk apparatus. An empirical study of thermally insulating materials such as extruded polystyrene (XPS) and aerogel blanket is conducted in order to address the factors that affect the reliability of thermal conductivity k obtained using the commercial TPS apparatus. Sensor size, input power, duration of the measurements, applied pressure, and, in the case of anisotropic materials, heat capacity are investigated, and the results are compared with those using a Heat Flow Meter apparatus. The effect of sensor size on the k value is ascribed to heat loss through connecting leads and is more pronounced in smaller sensors and in materials with lower k values . In the case of XPS and aerogel, the effect becomes minimal for sensors with a radius r ≥ 6.4 mm. The low input power yields a high scattering of the results and should be avoided. Applied contact pressure and the tested region of the specimen play an important role in experiments with low-density fibrous materials due to the large percentage of heat being transferred by radiation and the heterogeneous nature of the samples, respectively. Additionally, the sensitivity of anisotropic measurements to the value of the material’s volumetric heat capacity ( ρC p ) is shown, emphasizing the need for the precise determination.

thermal conductivity↗

The role of reforestation in carbon sequestration

In the United States (U.S.), the maintenance of forest cover is a legal mandate for federally managed forest lands. More broadly, reforestation following harvesting, recent or historic disturbances can enhance numerous carbon (C)-based ecosystem services and functions. These include production of woody biomass for forest products, and mitigation of atmospheric CO 2 pollution and climate change by sequestering C into ecosystem pools where it can be stored for long timescales. Nonetheless, a range of assessments and analyses indicate that reforestation in the U.S. lags behind its potential, with the continuation of ecosystem services and functions at risk if reforestation is not increased. In this context, there is need for multiple independent analyses that quantify the role of reforestation in C sequestration, from ecosystems up to regional and national levels. Here, we describe the methods and report the findings of a large-scale data synthesis aimed at four objectives: (1) estimate C storage in major ecosystem pools in forest and other land cover types; (2) quantify sources of variation in ecosystem C pools; (3) compare the impacts of reforestation and afforestation on C pools; (4) assess whether these results hold or diverge across ecoregions. The results of our synthesis support four overarching inferences regarding reforestation and other land use impacts on C sequestration. First, in the bigger picture, soils are the dominant C pool in all ecosystems and land cover types in the U.S., and soil C pool sizes vary less by land cover than by other factors, such as spatial variation or soil wetness. Second, where historically cultivated lands are being reforested, topsoils are sequestering significant amounts of C, with the majority of reforested lands yet to reach their capacity relative to the potential indicated by natural forest soils. Third, the establishment of woody vegetation delivers immediate to multi-decadal C sequestration benefits in aboveground woody biomass and coarse woody debris pools, with two- to three-fold C sequestration benefits in biomass during the first several decades following planting. Fourth, opportunities to enhance C sequestration through reforestation vary among the ecoregions, according to current levels of planting, typical forest growth rates, and past land uses (especially cultivation). Furthermore, our results suggest that an immediate, but phased and spatially targeted approach to reforestation can enhance C sequestration in forest biomass and soils in the U.S. for decades to centuries to come.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Hydration and Sulfonation on the Morphology and Ionic Conductivity of Sulfonated Poly(phenylene) Proton Exchange Membranes

Multiple computational and experimental techniques are used here to understand the nanoscale morphology and water/proton transport properties in a series of sulfonated Diels–Alder poly(phenylene) (SDAPP) membranes over a wide range of temperature, hydration, and sulfonation conditions. New synthetic methods allow us to sulfonate the SDAPP membranes to much higher ion exchange capacity levels than has been previously possible. Nanoscale phase separation between the hydrophobic polymer backbone and the hydrophilic water/sulfonic acid groups was observed for all membranes studied. We find good agreement between structure factors calculated from atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and those measured by X-ray scattering. With increasing hydration, the scattering ionomer peak in SDAPP is found to decrease in intensity. This intensity decrease is shown to be due to a reduction of scattering contrast between the water and polymer and is not indicative of any loss of nanoscale phase separation. Both MD simulations and density functional theory (DFT) calculations show that as hydration levels are increased, the nanostructure morphology in SDAPP evolves from isolated ionic domains to fully percolated water networks containing progressively weaker hydrogen bond strengths. The conductivity of the membranes is measured by electrical impedance spectroscopy and the equivalent proton conductivity calculated from pulsed-field-gradient (PFG) NMR diffusometry measurements of the hydration waters. Comparison of the measured and calculated conductivity reveals that in SDAPP the proton conduction mechanism evolves from being dominated by vehicular transport at low hydration and sulfonation levels to including a significant contribution from the Grötthuss mechanism (also known as structural diffusion) at higher hydration and sulfonation levels. The observed increase in conductivity reflects the impact that changing hydration and sulfonation have on the morphology and hydrogen bond network and ultimately on the membrane performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Synthesis of zinc ultrafine powders via the Guen–Miller flow-levitation method

Zinc ultrafine powders (UFPs) with the average particle size of 0.175 to 1.24 μm are synthesized via the flow-levitation method. The peculiarities of the formation of zinc UFPs are considered with respect to the carrier gas properties (heat capacity, thermal conductivity, and diffusion coefficient), as well as the gas flow parameters (pressure and flow rate). The obtained zinc particles are studied via scanning electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction. The factors determining the crystal structure of zinc particles and their size distribution are discussed as well. The data on oxidation of zinc stored in unsealed containers under normal conditions are also presented.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DEPRECATED AI-Batt-OS (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models - Open Source) [SWR 21-17]

DEPRECATED. This repository was archived by the owner on Jun 30, 2026. It is now read-only. Open source implementation of some of the methods utilized by AI-Batt, a battery lifetime modeling and analysis toolkit provided by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR). This software demonstrates the use of bi-level optimization and symbolic regression techniques to semi-autonomously identify algebraic models predicting the capacity fade of lithium-ion batteries during calendar aging. Modeling the degradation of batteries is a complex task, due to the difficulty in separating the time-dependent and time-independent factors impacting cell level degradation, across multiple data series with different numbers of measurements and/or data quality. Bi-level optimization enables model parameters to be optimized to either the entire data set or to individual data series, allowing statistical disambiguation of global behaviors (data series independent) and local behaviors (data series dependent). Symbolic regression is used to automatically search for optimal low-dimesional models predicting the variation of locally optimized parameters versus time-independent experimental variables from millions of possible models, resulting in a more accurate and repeatable model identification process than is possible by a manual search. The provided tools also implement cross-validation and bootstrap resampling schemes, empowering statistical model comparison/selection and quantification of model uncertainties. An example script replicates the results from the manuscript "Challenging Practices of Algebraic Battery Life Models through Statistical Validation and Model Identification via Machine-Learning", submitted to ECS. All code is written in MATLAB. Requires the Statistics and Machine Learning Toolbox. Contact Dr. Paul Gasper at Paul.Gasper@nlr.gov for any questions.

Gasper, Paul↗

Additive Manufacturing of Controlled Porous Elastomeric Nanocomposites for Enhanced Sensing Function

Sensors manufactured using piezoresistive elastomeric nanocomposites have a wide range of applications in many fields such as structural health monitoring, robotics, and biomedical industries. Additive manufacturing of these sensors, achieved using Direct Ink Writing (DIW), has provided numerous advantages including increased sensitivity and the fabrication of complex geometry. However, solid sensors manufactured either additively or using conventional methods, display a greater level of hysteresis, especially at strains higher than 10%, which limits their sensitivity. The solid sensors also display a greater level of piezoresistive relaxation where the resistance change with time either in a static or dynamic loading environment. Porosity can be introduced in the form of varying infill patterns and densities to reduce bulk material effects. In this paper, a lattice structure with four infill densities are investigated, and the samples are printed using a grid infill pattern. The fabricated samples are characterized using a scanning electron microscope (SEM) to validate the microstructural features and layer bonding. The pressure-sensing capability of each sensor is investigated using cyclic compression loading at various strain levels. Sensing results show that an increase in sensitivity, as well as a decrease in hysteresis with an increase in porosity, compared to solid samples (100% in-fill). The highest porosity was measured to be 62.3% with a corresponding 112% increase in the gauge factor compared to the solid bulk. These results indicate that introducing porosity using DIW is a sensible strategy to improve the piezoresistive performance of nanocomposites and to allow for the tunability of sensing capacity in pressure sensors

Sukati, Musa↗

Organic Iodide Sorption from Dilute Gas Streams

Reprocessing used nuclear fuel releases volatile radionuclides, including 129 iodine (I), into the off-gas of a processing plant. Volatile radioiodine could be present in several forms, depending on the chemistry of the process used and the off-gas stream. Inorganic I 2 is expected to be the predominant I species in the dissolver off-gas (DOG), with minor organic iodides present. The bulk of the I is expected to volatilize into the DOG in parts-per-million-level (ppm) concentrations. In contrast, in the vessel off-gas (VOG), most of the volatile I is expected to be found as organic iodides, such as CH 3 I, C 4 H 9 I, and C 12 H 25 I. These species are expected to be present in parts-per-billion-level (ppb) concentrations but require abatement, even at low expected concentrations, to meet regulatory emissions limits in the United States. Historically, studies of I abatement by Ag-functionalized sorbents have focused on inorganic I in the DOG, but in the last few years, more research attention has been given to organic iodides, especially longer chain species, such as C 4 H 9 I, and C 12 H 25 I. This report has three main goals: (1) to present new data generated at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in FY21 on the sorption behavior of organic iodides on AgZ, (2) to summarize and synthesize organic iodide data produced by ORNL and Idaho National Laboratory (INL) over the last 4 years to answer questions on organic iodides behavior outlined in the 2018 joint test plan (Jubin et al. 2018), and (3) to propose a VOG abatement system design that can provide the capture efficiencies required to meet I emission limits. The 2021 ORNL experimental campaign tested the effects of organic iodide speciation and concentration in the off-gas, superficial velocity of the off-gas, and effects of aging on AgZ sorbent capacity. These studies found that the sorption rate of organic iodides by AgZ depends on the hydrocarbon chain length and the concentration in the off-gas. Higher molecular weight organic iodides adsorb to AgZ more slowly than I. At a concentration of 50 ppm concentration in the off-gas, CH 3 I loads 8% slower, C 4 H 9 I loads 20% slower, and C 12 H 25 I loads 40% slower than I. The lowest concentration loading rates calculated were in 5 ppm organic iodide gas streams in which AgZ gained on average 0.14 mg I/g sorbent/hour in the bench scale test system. Thus, longer sorbent beds might be needed to accommodate slower loading rates onto AgZ in lower concentration gas streams. Although sorption rate varies as a function of hydrocarbon chain length, the saturation concentration of the sorbent for these I-bearing species does not vary. Aging AgZ in a humid air stream for 9 months drops the overall sorbent capacity by ~35% for CH 3 I, ~50% for C 4 H 9 I, and ~40% for C 12 H 25 I. This results in a saturation capacity between 35 and 70 mg I/g sorbent for the aged AgZ. In conjunction with recent data produced by INL, these data are used to estimate the mass transfer zone (MTZ) and decontamination factor (DF) for sorbent beds of AgZ. Sorption tests performed with iodide gas concentrations of about 1 ppm and higher at a superficial gas velocity of 10 m/min, indicate that MTZ depths for these conditions tend to range between about 8-20 cm. Tests performed at lower concentrations between 50-90 ppb and at gas superficial velocities of 1, 10, and 20 m/min indicate that the MTZ depth increases with increasing superficial gas velocity. The 20 m/min test indicates that the MTZ for those conditions was at least 22 cm, and doubling the superficial gas velocity from 10 to 20 m/min could roughly double or triple the MTZ depth. Doubling and tripling the bounding MTZ depth of 20 cm for the body of MTZ estimates made at with 10 m/min superficial velocity would extend the MTZ for a superficial velocity of 20 m/min to 40-60 cm. This bounding limit applies to all of the organic iodides that have been tested. These results also indicate that the sorption rate-limiting step is not sensitive to the superficial gas velocity; otherwise the MTZ depth would not have increased approximately in proportion to the increase in the gas superficial velocity. This further suggests that the rate limiting step is not associated with mass transfer of the sorbate to the sorbent surface, or mass transfer of the reaction byproducts from the sorbent surface, but is associated with sorption or chemical reactions on the sorbent surface or in sorbent pores. Deep bed testing at INL has established DFs of >2,000 for I, CH 3 I, and C 4 H 9 I under a range of conditions (Soelberg et al. 2021, Bruffey et al. 2019). DF does not seem to be affected by the concentration of the organic iodide in the gas stream over the range of 1 to 50 ppm. Thus, if the MTZ is accommodated in sorbent bed design for the DOG and VOG, then regulatory DFs will be met. To meet the third objective outlined in this report, these experimental data were used to update an engineering evaluation of the VOG first completed in 2016. The updated VOG design can be found in an accompanying document (Welty et al., 2021; INL- LTD-21-64587). This report finds that the VOG will decrease in both size and complexity, relative to previous designs, and will still meet regulatory requirements for all iodine forms.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

2023 Critical Materials Strategy

The global effort to curb carbon emissions is accelerating demand for clean energy technologies and the materials they rely on. Demand for these materials will only continue to grow, especially as some nations aim to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. While some major materials like steel, copper, and aluminum are already powering the fossil fuel economy, others are more minor materials with potential supply risks. These risks could jeopardize the ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within the desirable timeframe to avoid significant climate change. In some cases, it may be necessary to take action to improve the resilience of material supply chains and mitigate supply risks. Understanding the importance of individual materials to clean energy and the supply risks associated with them is necessary to identify which materials may serve as potential roadblocks to a clean energy future. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued a series of 13 supply chain deep dive assessment reports on various energy technologies in 2022 in response to President Biden’s Executive Order on America’s Supply Chains (E.O. 14017). These reports emphasized that supply chain bottlenecks can occur at any stage of the value chain from mining and refining to component and even sub-system manufacturing. The bottlenecks are a combination of factors such as material availability, equipment availability, work force availability and quality, logistics, regulatory framework, and market conditions. These bottlenecks were worsened during the global Covid-19 pandemic. Its lingering impacts have hindered capacity expansion for material supply chains and prevented product lead-time recovery. One approach to reduce supply chain risks for the United States is to have a strong domestic manufacturing sector with a diverse set of producers. Boosting responsible domestic production would require leveraging the latest science not only in material extraction but also in developing substitutes, recycling, reuse, and remanufacturing. This report is an updated analysis of previous Critical Materials Strategy (CMS) reports published by the DOE in 2010, 2011, and 2019 based on national and global priorities, technology advancement, and technology adoption trends. Like the CMS reports, this analysis presents the results of a formal material criticality assessment to identify which materials are critical to the continued deployment of clean energy technologies globally. The analysis in this report leveraged the DOE supply chain deep dive assessments to develop the initial list of materials to evaluate. This DOE Critical Materials Assessment (CMA) is conducted independently of criticality assessments performed by other U.S. government agencies, such as that conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). This analysis complements the USGS critical minerals determination in three aspects. First, the DOE assessment is performed from a global perspective, while the USGS analysis focusses on the importance of minerals to the U.S. economy. Second, this report focuses on the importance of materials to clean energy technologies, rather than to the economy in general. Lastly, this study is forward looking to 2035 based on clean energy deployment scenarios, whereas the USGS assessment is retrospective. Materials evaluated in this report that do not appear in the USGS Critical Minerals List include copper, uranium, electrical steel, and SiC. A draft version of this report received ~80 public comments related to supporting data and methodological improvement. Those comments have been incorporated as much as possible where appropriate. Highlights of findings from this 2023 CMA include: Rare earth materials (neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium) used in magnets in electric vehicle (EV) motors and wind turbine generators continue to be critical. While dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb) are both heavy rare earth elements that serve the same function in magnets, the criticality of Tb is slightly lower than that for Dy in the short term due to the widespread use of Dy in high-grade magnets and Tb’s present role as a substitute. Similarly, praseodymium (Pr) is critical in the medium term but only near critical in the short term because it is more substitutable in magnets than neodymium (Nd); Materials used in batteries for EVs and stationary storage are now considered to be critical. While cobalt (Co) was found to be critical in this and previous reports, lithium (Li) becomes critical in the medium term due to its broader use in various battery chemistries and the rampant growth of the EV industry. Natural graphite is a new addition in this assessment and is also found to be critical; Platinum group metals used in hydrogen electrolyzers, such as platinum (Pr) and iridium (Ir), are critical due to an increased focus on hydrogen technologies to achieve net zero carbon emissions, while those used in catalytic converters, such as rhodium (Rh) and palladium (Pd), were screened out due to the decreased importance of catalytic converters in the medium term; Gallium (Ga) continues to be critical due to its use in light-emitting diodes (LEDs). In addition, the use of Ga has increased in magnet manufacturing and in semiconductor in forms such as gallium arsenide (GaAs) or gallium nitride (GaN); Major materials like Aluminum (Al), copper (Cu), nickel (Ni), and silicon (Si) move from noncritical in the short term to near critical in the medium term due to their importance in electrification; Electrical steel is near critical due to its use in transformers for the grid and electric motors in EVs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Impacts of Curing-Induced Phase Segregation in Silicon Nanoparticle-Based Electrodes

We report the investigation of silicon nanoparticle composite anodes for Li-ion batteries, using a combination of two nm-scale atomic force microscopy-based techniques: scanning spreading resistance microscopy for electrical conduction mapping and contact resonance and force volume for elastic modulus mapping, along with scanning electron microscopy-based energy dispersion spectroscopy, nanoindentation, and electrochemical analysis. Thermally curing the composite anode—made of polyethylene oxide-treated Si nanoparticles, carbon black, and polyimide binder—reportedly improves the anode electrochemical performance significantly. This work demonstrates phase segregation resulting from thermal curing, where alternating bands of carbon and silicon active material are observed. This electrode morphology is retained after extensive cycling, where the electrical conduction of the carbon-rich bands remains relatively unchanged, but the mechanical modulus of the bands decreases distinctly. These electrical and mechanical factors may contribute to performance improvement, with carbon bands serving as a mechanical buffer for Si deformation and providing electrical conduction pathways. This work motivates future efforts to engineer similar morphologies for mitigating capacity loss in silicon electrodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Biochar Nanocomposite as an Inexpensive and Highly Efficient Carbonaceous Adsorbent for Hexavalent Chromium Removal

Biochar is commonly used for soil amendment, due to its excellent water-holding capacity. The Cr(VI) contamination of water is a current environmental issue in industrial regions. Here, we evaluated the effects of two-step modifications on boosting biochar’s performance in terms of the removal of aqueous hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI)), along with investigating the alterations to its surface properties. The first modification step was heat treatment under air at 300 °C, producing hydrophilic biochar (HBC). The resulting HBC was then impregnated with zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI), creating an HBC/nZVI composite, adding a chemical reduction capability to the physical sorption mechanism. Unmodified biochar (BC), HBC, and HBC/nZVI were characterized for their physicochemical properties, including surface morphology and elemental composition, by SEM/EDS, while functional groups were ascertained by FTIR and surface charge by zeta potential. Cr(VI) removal kinetic studies revealed the four-time greater sorption capacity of HBC than BC. Although unmodified BC showed faster initial Cr(VI) uptake, it rapidly worsened and started desorption. After nZVI impregnation, the Cr(VI) removal rate of HBC increased by a factor of 10. FTIR analysis of biochars after Cr(VI) adsorption showed the presence of Cr(III) oxide only on the used HBC/nZVI and demonstrated that the carbonyl and carboxyl groups were the main groups involved in Cr(VI) sorption. Modified biochars could be considered an economical substitute for conventional methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

ROLE OF NUCLEONIC FERMI SURFACE DEPLETION IN NEUTRON STAR COOLING

The Fermi surface depletion of beta-stable nuclear matter is calculated to study its effects on several physical properties that determine the neutron star (NS) thermal evolution. The neutron and proton Z factors measuring the corresponding Fermi surface depletions are calculated within the Brueckner–Hartree–Fock approach, employing the AV18 two-body force supplemented by a microscopic three-body force. Neutrino emissivity, heat capacity, and in particular neutron {sup 3}PF{sub 2} superfluidity, turn out to be reduced, especially at high baryonic density, to such an extent that the cooling rates of young NSs are significantly slowed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Shuttle/Spacelab - Platform for a cooled infrared astronomical telescope

The Shuttle IR telescope facility is planned to provide a major advance in sensitivity and observations across an IR spectrum from 1 micron to 1 mm. To accomplish this it will operate in a low earth orbit, above most of the atmosphere. The described analysis of revised designs and operations shows that the volume and weight capacity of the Shuttle is adequate for the telescope requirements. Contamination from Shuttle effluents will be significant only in the band between 20 and 30 microns, where it will degrade performance by a factor of 1.7. (The degradation will occur only with the evaporators operating.) With the addition of the telescope's fine stabilization system, the Spacelab instrument pointing and stabilization system will provide the pointing freedom and stability necessary for the telescope to reach its design goals.

Mccarthy, S. G.↗

3-D components of a biological neural network visualized in computer generated imagery. II - Macular neural network organization

Computer-assisted reconstructions of small parts of the macular neural network show how the nerve terminals and receptive fields are organized in 3-dimensional space. This biological neural network is anatomically organized for parallel distributed processing of information. Processing appears to be more complex than in computer-based neural network, because spatiotemporal factors figure into synaptic weighting. Serial reconstruction data show anatomical arrangements which suggest that (1) assemblies of cells analyze and distribute information with inbuilt redundancy, to improve reliability; (2) feedforward/feedback loops provide the capacity for presynaptic modulation of output during processing; (3) constrained randomness in connectivities contributes to adaptability; and (4) local variations in network complexity permit differing analyses of incoming signals to take place simultaneously. The last inference suggests that there may be segregation of information flow to central stations subserving particular functions.

Ross, Muriel D.↗

Global Distribution of Small Rayed Craters on Mars: Sequences of Ejecta Retention

Small rayed impact craters (SRC), whose diameter (D) is less than1 km, should be distributed spatially and temporally random across Mars. Ejecta retention, the capacity of and time period impact excavated material remains in place around a crater, can serve as a proxy to understand global resurfacing rates and recent surficial processes. Ejecta retention depends on two factors: formation, where the target material is more conducive to creating ejecta rays, and retention, the erosion/deposition rate where ejecta are emplaced. This research aims to quantify the distribution of SRC on Mars, as well as develop a classification scheme for ejecta retention with correlations to known processes. Our ultimate goal is to better understand the retention environment over the "lifespan" of the rayed ejecta.

spatial distribution↗

Three Decades of Global Methane Sources and Sinks

Methane is an important greenhouse gas, responsible for about 20 of the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases since pre-industrial times. By reacting with hydroxyl radicals, methane reduces the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and generates ozone in the troposphere. Although most sources and sinks of methane have been identified, their relative contributions to atmospheric methane levels are highly uncertain. As such, the factors responsible for the observed stabilization of atmospheric methane levels in the early 2000s, and the renewed rise after 2006, remain unclear. Here, we construct decadal budgets for methane sources and sinks between 1980 and 2010, using a combination of atmospheric measurements and results from chemical transport models, ecosystem models, climate chemistry models and inventories of anthropogenic emissions. The resultant budgets suggest that data-driven approaches and ecosystem models overestimate total natural emissions. We build three contrasting emission scenarios which differ in fossil fuel and microbial emissions to explain the decadal variability in atmospheric methane levels detected, here and in previous studies, since 1985. Although uncertainties in emission trends do not allow definitive conclusions to be drawn, we show that the observed stabilization of methane levels between 1999 and 2006 can potentially be explained by decreasing-to-stable fossil fuel emissions, combined with stable-to-increasing microbial emissions. We show that a rise in natural wetland emissions and fossil fuel emissions probably accounts for the renewed increase in global methane levels after 2006, although the relative contribution of these two sources remains uncertain.

periodic variations↗

The Recent Large Reduction in Space Launch Cost

The development of commercial launch systems has substantially reduced the cost of space launch. NASA’s space shuttle had a cost of about $1.5 billion to launch 27,500 kg to Low Earth Orbit (LEO), $54,500/kg. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 now advertises a cost of $62 million to launch 22,800 kg to LEO, $2,720/kg. Commercial launch has reduced the cost to LEO by a factor of 20. This will have a substantial impact on the space industry, military space, and NASA. Existing launch providers are reducing their costs and so are satellite developers. The military foresees an opportunity to rapidly replace compromised space assets that provided communications, weather, surveillance, and positioning. NASA supported the development of commercial space launch and NASA science anticipates lower cost missions, but human space flight planning seems unreactive. Specifically, it has been claimed that commercial spaceflight has not reduced the cost to provide cargo to the International Space Station (ISS). The key factor is that the space shuttle can provide cargo and crew to ISS while the Falcon 9 must also use the Dragon capsule, which adds cost and reduces payload. The cost of a Falcon 9 and Dragon capsule mission to ISS is about $140 million with a payload of 6,000 kg, $23,300/kg. The shuttle payload to ISS is less than to LEO, 16,050 kg, so its cost is also higher at $93,400/kg. The launch cost to ISS has been reduced by a factor of 4. Calculations that show commercial launch provides no cost reduction to ISS assume half the usually cited shuttle cost and allocate it to the actual delivered payload, about half the full capacity. In a split mission, with crew and pressurized cargo launched separately from hardware and materials, the higher Falcon 9 plus Dragon costs would apply only to a fraction of the launch mass. A 4 to 1 cost reduction saves most, 75%, of the total cost. A further reduction to 10 or 20 to 1 saves 90 or 95%, but this is only a small, 15 or 20%, portion of the original cost. The recently reduced space launch cost can be expected to substantially impact human space flight.

Jones, Harry W.↗

Controller Strategies for Managing Air Traffic in High Altitude Arrival Sectors

Substantial increases in the volume of air traffic in the National Airspace System (NAS) are forecast for the next decade, with the number of passengers travelling on U.S. airlines expected to increase by as much as 60%. This increased demand on system capacity will be accompanied by increases in traffic complexity as air traffic service providers routinely accommodate user preferred routing requests. Changes to the NAS to meet these new demands are currently underway, including development of new decision support tools to aid controllers in monitoring and managing air traffic, and increased air-to-air and air-to-ground information exchange. Changes in roles and responsibilities of pilots and controllers in flight path management will accompany these changes in traffic patterns and information technology, however the ultimate responsibility for maintaining aircraft separation will remain with the air traffic controller. A thorough understanding of the methods controllers use to manage air traffic will help ensure that changes to the NAS are implemented in a way that maintains the controller's ability to separate aircraft as the system evolves. This presentation describes the strategies controllers use today to manage arrival traffic in its descent from cruise altitude to the Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) boundary. Factors that increase the complexity of this task include the presence of overflight traffic, varying aircraft performance characteristics, winds aloft, ground speed variations with altitude, the need to merge arrival traffic into a single stream, and, when arrival traffic exceeds airport runway capacity, the added task of metering flow into the TRACON. Because of the limited information available to controllers to manage arrival traffic, their strategies are often driven by the need to reduce the task's complexity, which can result in de-optimized flight paths for individual aircraft (e.g., sub-optimal descent or speed profiles). Understanding these strategies and the cognitive demands that drive them will support a safe transition to a NAS that relies on enhanced technologies. In addition, it could enable system developers to identify opportunities for new automation-based procedures or information displays that could reduce the controller's workload and increase operational efficiency.

Smith, Nancy↗