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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

A Critical Review of the Measurement of Ice Adhesion to Solid Substrates

Ice adhesion is an issue spanning a wide range of technical fields. In the aerospace industry, ice accretion has led to a large number of casualties and costs the industry billions of dollars every year. To design effective anti-/de-icing systems, the adhesion of ice to surfaces must be understood. In this review paper, the authors surveyed for papers providing methods for the measurement of ice adhesion. 113 papers were identified for comparison, with data being extracted from 58 papers with common test surfaces (aluminum, steel, Teflon® (Chemours), and polyurethane). The methods used were categorized and data were compared based on their precision and the trends they demonstrated. Conceptual problems were identified with the tests used in the literature and discussed, and open questions relevant to testing the adhesion of ice were identified. Several key parameters affecting ice adhesion identified from the literature were temperature, surface roughness, strain rate, and impact velocity. Their effects on adhesion strength were discussed. While researching this topic, it was discovered that many papers did not report the strain rate in their tests, and the vast majority of papers did not correct their data for stress concentrations on the surface, either of which has been shown to cause variation in the data by one order of magnitude. Data compared from the literature typically spanned one to three orders of magnitude. The causes of these variations were discussed.

Andrew H. Work↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-34012-DND

Earth’s climate system is highly interconnected, meaning that changes to the global climate influence the United States climatically and economically. In much the same way as European and Asian financial markets affect the U.S. economy, changes to ice sheet mass and energy flows in the far reaches of the planet affect our climate. Life on Earth is sensitive to climate conditions; human society is especially susceptible due to the climate-vulnerable, complex, and often fragile systems that provide food, water, energy, and security. Observed changes to the global climate affecting the United States include rising global temperatures, diminishing sea ice, melting ice sheets and glaciers, rising sea levels, etc. These documented changes have global economic and national security implications, including for the United States. For example, sea level rise alone is putting $100 billion dollars of U.S. military assets at risk, according to the Dept. of Defense. Arctic climate change continues to outpace the rest of the globe. Over the last 30 years, rapid and, in many cases, unprecedented changes to Arctic temperatures, sea ice, snow cover, land ice, and permafrost have occurred. While the Arctic may seem far away, changes in the Arctic climate system have a global reach, affecting sea level, the carbon cycle, atmospheric winds, ocean currents, and potentially the frequency of extreme weather. This presentation discusses the changes in the observed in the Arctic, the projected changes, and the potential impacts to us living the U.S.

Patrick C Taylor↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-19005-DND

Science is an economic investment by the public. We will be managing Earth’s climate until civilization moves elsewhere. We currently have no national or international climate observing system, nor a plan to create one. Should we invest in one? Is it worth it? What is the economic value of an advanced climate observing system? How would you estimate it? We have a few traceable estimates of the economic value of weather prediction for severe storms, hurricanes, floods and droughts. Climate scientists often say that the results from their research “will inform societal decisions with trillion dollar impacts”. But is this statement verified and traceable in any way? How could we quantify an economic value to climate science? Recall that climate change science value exists decades into the future. Its value has to be treated as a risk/benefit economic analysis. A rigorous analysis must take into account the uncertainties in climate science, economic impacts, and policy (see Figure 1 below).

Bruce A Wielicki↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-20735-DND

Higher than normal accuracy is required to rigorously observe decadal climate change. But what level is needed? How can this be quantified? This presentation will summarize a new more rigorous and quantitative approach to determining the required accuracy for climate change observations (Wielicki et al., 2013, BAMS). Most current global satellite observations cannot meet this accuracy level. A proposed new satellite mission to resolve this challenge is CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory). CLARREO is designed to achieve advances of a factor of 10 for reflected solar spectra and a factor of 3 to 5 for thermal infrared spectra (Wielicki et al., Oct. 2013 BAMS). The CLARREO spectrometers are designed to serve as SI traceable benchmarks for the Global Satellite Intercalibration System (GSICS) and to greatly improve the utility of a wide range of LEO and GEO infrared and reflected solar passive satellite sensors for climate change observations (e.g. CERES, MODIS, VIIIRS, CrIS, IASI, Landsat, SPOT, etc). Providing more accurate decadal change trends can in turn lead to more rapid narrowing of key climate science uncertainties such as cloud feedback and climate sensitivity. A study has been carried out to quantify the economic benefits of such an advance as part of a rigorous and complete climate observing system. The study concludes that the economic value is ~ $12 Trillion U.S. dollars in Net Present Value for a nominal discount rate of 3% (Cooke et al. 2013, J. Env. Sys. Dec.). A brief summary of these two studies and their implications for the future of climate science will be presented.

Bruce Wielicki↗

ATM-X: Air Traffic Management – eXploration: Urban Air Mobility Overview

The UAM market is expected to be big in the billions of dollars. And, of course, UAM will need to be able to readily access and operate in the airspace for this to happen. In the ATM-X UAM sub-project, we are focused on NASA’s top-level goal of enabling UAM Maturity Level-4 (UML-4) operational density and complexity, with hundreds of simultaneous operations in a metropolitan area managed through a UTM-like architecture with third-party provided traffic management services. We are doing this by developing a concept of operations with the FAA and the UAM community that serves as a framework and guide for community research and development. We are also doing this by conducting research to define system requirements based on the concept and developing the UAM airspace management system for the AAM National Campaign.

urban air mobility↗

Error Localization Examples: Looking for a Needle in a Hay-stack

Finite element models (FEM) are routinely developed and used during fabrication of high dollar-value hardware. NASA as part of the pre-flight certification of launch vehicles routinely conducts vibration and static tests to calibrate models used for flight-risk assessments. As part of the calibration process, certain areas in the model are modified, using engineering judgment and sensitivity analysis, to match the test results. Unfortunately, tools to identify problem areas in the FEM using test data directly are scarce. Over the years, Error Localization Algorithms (ELA) have been proposed with very limited success. Recently, the Analytical Dynamics Model Improvement (ADMI) algorithm, which computes closed-form mass and stiffness corrections to match the test data exactly, have been shown to be effective for error localization. The paper will present several FEM example problems where ELA is used with simulated test data to determine FEM problem areas. For each example, the correct answer is shown along with ELA results. It is shown that the ELA process is able to identify general problem areas in the FEM, which are consistent with known model perturbations. However, in most cases the ELA identified area of improvement is larger than the true answer. Nonetheless, with proper optimization tools, calibration results using the ELA identified areas provide excellent results.

error localization↗

The case for a multi-channel polarization sensitive LIDAR for investigation of insolation-driven ices and atmospheres

All LIDAR instruments are not the same, and advancement of LIDAR technology requires an ongoing interest and demand from the community to foster further development of the required components. The purpose of this white paper is to make the decadal survey panel aware of the need for further technical development, and the potential payoff of investing experimental time, money and thought into the next generation of LIDARs. Technologies for development:​ We advocate for future development of LIDAR technologies to measure the ​polarization​ state of the reflected light at ​selected multiple wavelengths,​ chosen according to the species of interest (e.g., H​2​O and CO​2​ in the Martian setting).Key scientific questions: ​In the coming decade, dollars spent on these LIDAR technologies will go towards addressing key climate questions on Mars and other rocky bodies, particularly those with seasonally changing (i.e. insolation driven) plumes of multiple icy volatiles such as Mars, Enceladus, Triton, or Pluto, and insolation-driven dust lifting, such as cometary bodies and the Moon. We will show from examining past Martian and terrestrial lidars that orbital and landed LIDARs can be effective for producing new insights into insolation-driven processes in current planetary climate on several bodies, beyond that available to our current fleet of largely passive instruments on planetary missions

Adrian Jon Brown↗

Error Localization Examples: Looking for a Needle in a Haystack

Finite element models (FEM) are routinely developed and used during fabrication of high dollar-value hardware. NASA, as part of the pre-flight certification of launch vehicles, routinely conducts vibration and static tests to calibrate models used for flight-risk assessments. During model calibration, certain areas of the model are modified, using engineering judgment and sensitivity analysis, to match the test results. Unfortunately, tools to identify problem areas in the FEM using test data directly are scarce and infrequently applied. Over the years, error localization algorithms have been proposed with very limited success. Recently, the Analytical Dynamics Model Improvement (ADMI) algorithm, which computes closed-form mass and stiffness corrections to match the test data exactly, have been shown to be an effective Error Localization Algorithm (ELA). The paper discusses three examples where ELA is used with simulated test data to locate problem areas. To gain confidence in the approach, the exact answer is shown along with ELA results. Results show that ELA is able to identify general problem areas consistent with known problem areas. In all examples, the ELA identified area is larger than the exact problem area. Nonetheless, with proper optimization tools, calibration results using the ELA identified areas provide excellent results.

model calibration↗

Encealdus Orbilander: A Flagship Mission Concept for Astrobiology

"Whether life exists beyond Earth remains a fundamental question driving our exploration of the Solar System. At Saturn’s moon Enceladus, plumes of oceanic material vented into space allow the investigation of the astrobiological potential of an ocean world, hinted at by Cassini, without the necessity of drilling through kilometers of ice crust. The Enceladus Orbilander is a flagship ($2.56B in fiscal year 2025 dollars) mission concept created for the 2023–2033 Planetary Science Decadal Survey. Orbilander takes full advantage of the opportunity provided by Enceladus’ plumes to search for signs of life. A single spacecraft both orbits and lands, capturing samples from four distinct reservoirs offered by the plumes. These samples, both particulate and vapor, are then analyzed by the Life Detection Suite (LDS), a set of five instruments conducting complementary and orthogonal biosignature-seeking measurements. To provide the context that specifically enhances interpretation of LDS measurements, geochemical and geophysical investigations are conducted both in orbit and on the surface. These reveal the physio-chemical state of the ocean and core as well as the processes involved in ejection of plume material and how these affect the ocean material analyzed by the LDS. The Orbilander can be delivered to the Saturn system via several launch vehicle and trajectory options, including a direct trajectory (7-year cruise), a ∆V-EGA trajectory (9-year cruise) and several options using an inner cruise with Venus and Earth flybys (10-year cruise). Upon Saturn Orbit Insertion, a 4-year moon tour pumps down the Orbilander’s orbit to intercept Enceladus. The most optimal arrival times balance the Jupiter flyby opportunities of the late 2030s and solar illumination at the Enceladus high southern latitudes where plume material is most abundant. This mission concept therefore targets project start in 2030. Upon Enceladus Orbit Insertion, the Orbilander begins a 1.5-year-long campaign of landing site reconnaissance, remote sensing science, and collecting sufficient plume sample to run all but one of the LDS measurements. After successful landing, the Orbilander spends 2 years on the surface conducting multiple LDS measurements with all five instruments on actively and passively collected plume material, as well as seismic investigations. The schedule laid out here is well-defined, but the mission also has operational and resource flexibility should additional reconnaissance be needed. As part of the design study, mission and development risks were identified and mitigation strategies proposed. Technologies key to achieving the life detection science objectives include instrumentation matured under programs like COLDTech and ICEE-2, such as aspects of the sampling system and microfluidic devices, as well as well-known techniques like high-resolution and separation-capable mass spectrometers. Autonomous onboard navigation is planned to maintain a halo orbit around Enceladus to enable passive sampling from orbit as well as reconnaissance measurements for use in site selection and landing. Terrain relative navigation is included to ensure safe landing, given that targeted areas may contain landing hazards. Continued development of radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG) technology and long-life batteries is essential for this long duration mission. The Enceladus Orbilander represents an optimal point in the trade space of science value versus cost, taking advantage of the extensive knowledge of Enceladus provided by Cassini, how well Enceladus lends itself to a search for life in material from its ocean, and the flexibility afforded by the innovative design developed by the APL team. By taking full advantage of Enceladus’ plumes both in orbit and on the surface, Orbilander represents a robust search for life with complementary and orthogonal biosignatures as well as contextual geophysical and geochemical measurements, determining not only whether Enceladus is inhabited (at levels up to 500,000× scarcer than in Earth’s oceans) but also why. "

Exobiology↗

Metrics in Space Life Support Technology Selection

Engineering metrics are useful in space life support technology selection, but they must be carefully used. Metrics are only part of a complete system trade-off. Metrics do harm if they cause neglect of other important technical, organizational, or intuitive decision factors. Two metrics have damaged space life support, closure and Equivalent Systems Mass (ESM). Closure measures the fraction of the required system inputs that are produced by recycling system outputs. Increasing closure produces diminishing returns and becomes increasingly expensive. Increasing closure does not directly contribute to providing better life support. ESM measures the total launch mass required to provide life support. ESM includes the mass of the system hardware and of its power, cooling, pressurized volume, spares, and logistics. ESM predicts launch costs, but recently launch costs have been reduced by a factor of 20 or more. System development cost for space hardware is often much greater than launch cost. The past nearly exclusive use of ESM has led to the neglect of Life Cycle Cost (LCC), reliability, cost, and the other engineering factors. Closure and ESM have misguided space life support technology selection for more than twenty years and have adversely affected the expenditure of 100’s of millions of dollars. Metrics can be effectively used three ways in space life support technology selection: 1. A small set of key engineering metrics for preliminary screening. 2. A full set of engineering to guide technical selection. 3. Combining engineering metrics with organizational, political, and intuitive decision factors to understand technology selection. The past emphasis on closure and ESM served to support recycling life support over resupply and built on the intuitive appeal of a human ecosystem in space.

Harry W Jones↗

A Strong Atmospheric River Responsible for the 2019 Record Floods in the Middle East

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) cause some of the weather-related disasters around the world. While many studies have shown the contribution of ARs to precipitation in the coastal regions such as western Europe and the U.S. West Coast, little is known about their mechanisms and impacts on flooding in the Middle East. This study shows that an AR was responsible for the record floods during March 2019 across the Middle East. Iran in particular was hit hardest with the floods that left a death toll of at least 76 and an early estimate of $2.5 billion (U.S. dollars) damage to its infrastructures. The heavy precipitation produced by this AR made the 2018/19 rainy season the wettest in the past four decades. By contrast, the prior year (2017/18) was the driest over the same period. This is a compelling example of rapid dry-to-wet transitions that may enhance the chance of landslides and impose challenges to water resources management. The AR originated in the Atlantic Ocean and propagated across North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula before its final landfall over the Zagros Mountains. On its nearly 9000 km journey, the AR received additional moisture from the Mediterranean, Red, and Arabian Seas, and the Persian Gulf. Moisture transport by this AR during 24-25 March 2019 is estimated at more than 150times the aggregated discharge of the four major rivers in the region, that is, the Tigris, Euphrates, Karun, and Karkheh. Anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in all surrounding basins and coincidence of a midlatitude system and a subtropical jet provided the necessary ingredients for formation of this strong AR. This work underlines the fact that the impacts of rain-producing ARs are not limited to the coastal regions. Such ARs can travel very long distances away from the oceans and affect remote arid and semi-arid regions like the Middle East. This study examined an individual AR, though one associated with record floods. However, it attempts to draw attention to the need for more AR-related research over the Middle East.

Atmospheric Rivers↗

Program Options to Explore Ocean Worlds

Including Earth, roughly a dozen water ocean worlds exist in the solar system: the relict worlds Ceres and Mars, vast oceans inside most of the large Jovian and Saturnian icy moons, and Kuiper Belt Objects like Triton, Charon, and Pluto whose geologies are dominated by water and ammonia. Key pieces of the ocean-world science puzzle – which when completed may reveal whether life is widespread in the cosmos, why it exists where it does, and how it originates – are distributed among them. The eventual exploration of all these worlds will yield humanity’s total tangible knowledge about life in the universe, essentially forever. Thus, their exploration has existential significance for humanity’s self-regard, and indeed perhaps of our place in the natural scheme. The matter of planning how to pursue such a difficult and unprecedented exploration opportunity is therefore historic. The technical challenges are formidable, far harder than at Mars: missions to the Jovian and Saturnian ocean worlds are severely power-limited; trip times can be as much as a half decade and decade, respectively. And the science targets are global-scale oceans beneath kilometers of cryogenic ice. Reaching and exploring them would be a multi-generational undertaking, so again it is essential to plan and prepare. Today, we lack the instrumentation, subsystems, and remote operational-intelligence technologies needed to build and use exploration avatars as good as what we can envision needing. Each ocean world holds a piece of the puzzle, but the three priority targets are Europa at Jupiter, and Enceladus and Titan at Saturn. As with the systematic exploration of Mars, exploring these diverse worlds poses a complex technical and programmatic challenge – a strategic challenge – that needs to be designed and managed if each generation is to see its work bear fruit, and if the space science community is to make most effective use of the public money devoted to the quest. Strategic programs benefit from coherence. In only 15 years, the Mars Exploration Program (MEP) has transformed humanity’s view of Mars as a once and future habitable place, a world quite possibly holding relict evidence of life. Finding such evidence, we would study it to know if that life shared an origin common with Earth life. However, life in the ocean worlds could not have shared our origin, so exploring them opens another level in our quest to understand life in the universe: not only to places with vast salt-water seas known to contain organics and hydrothermal seafloors active today, but to places where anything alive cannot be related to us. MEP’s success – from its presence in the public consciousness to its rewriting of planetary habitability – make it an obvious template and source of lessons learned for a viable ocean worlds exploration program (OWEP). Six attributes of the MEP are analyzed for application to a potential OWEP. From this, five hypothetical programmatic scenarios are compared to the default case, and conclusions drawn. A coherent OWEP should have several parts: first, dedicated continuous investment in enabling technologies; and second, two directed-purpose, medium-class (~$1B) missions per decade that conduct pivotal investigations on a documented roadmap. Science could start in 2035, informing development of decadal flagship missions after Europa Clipper, to the places revealed to hold the most promise. The fastest pace of scientific discoveries would require access to high-performance propulsion infrastructure, e.g., the Space Launch System, Falcon Heavy, and high-power in-space solar electric propulsion, all capable of halving trip time. Not including these boosts, such a program would cost about a half-billion dollars more per year than NASA’s existing mission portfolio; the program architecture funded today cannot deliver a strategic OWEP while also sustaining balance among other solar system exploration priorities and opportunities.

Naderi, F.↗

Earned Value Management Software Projects

JPL has been attempting to apply EVM techniques for the last 15 years with mixed success, especially when applied to software tasks. One of the main causes is that software presents particular challenges that were not considered during the genesis of EVM. A small number of tasks have been able to use EVM effectively and derive great benefits. This paper discusses challenges specific to software management and how they can be successfully addressed. Specifically, it details lessons learned from the $28 million dollar Next Generation Navigation Software Project that replaced NASA’s deep space navigation software for operations. The project was able to successfully use EVM techniques during a four year period, producing 12 releases on their promised delivery dates and projects actual costs that were within 0.3% of the planned budget (under), in contrast to performance before the techniques were put into practice.

Hanna, Robert A.↗

ASCot, the NASA Analogy Software Cost Tool Suite: expanding our estimation horizons

The NASA Analogy Software Costing Tool Suite (ASCoT) consists of a cluster-based analogy estimator for estimating software development effort, a K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) analogy estimator for estimating effort and delivered lines of code, a simple regression-based cost estimating relationship (CER) model that estimates cost in dollars, and a probabilistic version of COCOMO II. In this paper we document the analogy algorithms as well as summarize the results of the performance of the KNN and the principle components (PCA) cluster analogy models. KNN performance is assessed by varying the number of inputs and number of neighbors. Four different clustering methods: K-means, Spectral Clustering, Hierarchical Clustering, and Principle Components Analysis (PCA), and their respective evaluation criterion are described in detail. The comparative performance of all four estimation models is assessed using magnitude of relative error (MRE) measurements.

Menzies, Tim↗

The Effective Use of Metrics in Space Life Support System Trade-Offs

Engineering metrics are useful in space life support technology selection, but they must be carefully used. Metrics are only part of a complete system trade-off. Metrics do harm if they cause neglect of other important technical, organizational, or intuitive decision factors. Two metrics have damaged space life support, closure and Equivalent Systems Mass (ESM). Closure measures the fraction of the required system inputs that are produced by recycling system outputs. Increasing closure produces diminishing returns and becomes increasingly expensive. Increasing closure does not directly contribute to providing better life support. ESM measures the total launch mass required to provide life support. ESM includes the mass of the system hardware and of its power, cooling, pressurized volume, spares, and logistics. ESM predicts launch costs, but recently launch costs have been reduced by a factor of 20 or more. System development cost for space hardware is often much greater than launch cost. The past nearly exclusive use of ESM has led to the neglect of Life Cycle Cost (LCC), reliability, cost, and the other engineering factors. Closure and ESM have misguided space life support technology selection for more than twenty years and have adversely affected the expenditure of 100’s of millions of dollars. Metrics can be effectively used three ways in space life support technology selection: 1. A small set of key engineering metrics for preliminary screening. 2. A full set of engineering to guide technical selection. 3. Combining engineering metrics with organizational, political, and intuitive decision factors to understand technology selection. The past emphasis on closure and ESM served to support recycling life support over resupply and built on the intuitive appeal of a human ecosystem in space.

Harry W. Jones↗

The Origins Space Telescope: Trades and Decisions Leading to the Baseline Mission Concept

The Origins Space Telescope will trace the history of our origins from the time dust and heavy elements permanently altered the cosmic landscape to present-day life. How did galaxies evolve from the earliest galactic systems to those found in the universe today? How do habitable planets form? How common are life-bearing worlds? We describe how Origins was designed to answer these alluring questions. We discuss the key decisions taken by the Origins mission concept study team, the rationale for those choices, and how they led through an exploratory design process to the Origins baseline mission concept. To understand the concept solution space, we studied two distinct mission concepts and descoped the second concept, aiming to maximize science per dollar and hit a self-imposed cost target. We report on the study approach and describe the concept evolution. The resulting baseline design includes a 5.9-m diameter telescope cryocooled to 4.5 K and equipped with three scientific instruments. The chosen architecture is similar to that of the Spitzer Space Telescope and requires very few deployments after launch. The cryo-thermal system design leverages JamesWebb Space Telescope technology and experience.

Infrared↗

Modeling Relative Trajectory Costs for Airborne Trajectory Reroutes using Trajectory Option Sets

As part of the Increasing Diverse Operations Project (IDO), the Trajectory Options Program (TOS), which was introduced with the Collaborative Trajectory Options Program, is used in a novel way to help reroute airborne aircraft. Different trajectories in this TOS are ranked by a Relative Trajectory Cost (RTC) which had to be adapted from its original use expressing ground delay, into expressing costs in a dollar value to adapt to aircraft being airborne. For this, a set of models consisting of the parameters Fuel, Crew, Airspace and Downstream Congestion cost, has been developed in an attempt to represent linear and non-linear behavior of airline delay costs. While Fuel and Airspace Cost in this model increase linearly, the Parameter Crew consists of three subset factors which leverage an underlying Crew-Placement algorithm using the IDO scenario to model non-linearity. The parameter Downstream Congestion attempts to predict delay in minutes by looking at sector overload for each sector a selected trajectory passes through.

automation↗

Initial Exploration of STEReO (Scalable Traffic management for Emergency Response Operations) system user requirements for safe integration of small UAS

Environment-based disasters, such as wildfire, can cause substantial loss of life and loss of property and are costing billions of dollars annually. Existing disaster response operations are complex, with many challenges. The aim of the Scalable Traffic management for Emergency Response Operations (STEReO) system is to demonstrate the application of technologies that will enable small, low-altitude Unmanned Aerial System operations to safely take place in the airspace above a disaster event, increasing the effectiveness of the response. As a first step, the project aims to build a small prototype to demonstrate and test the core functions of this system based on user needs and requirements that were gathered from experts in the field during discussions and walkthroughs.

STEReO↗