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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2015

Thermal model development and validation for rapid filling of high pressure hydrogen tanks

This paper describes the development of thermal models for the filling of high pressure hydrogen tanks with experimental validation. Two models are presented; the first uses a one-dimensional, transient, network flow analysis code developed at Sandia National Labs, and the second uses the commercially available CFD analysis tool Fluent. These models were developed to help assess the safety of Type IV high pressure hydrogen tanks during the filling process. The primary concern for these tanks is due to the increased susceptibility to fatigue failure of the liner caused by the fill process. Thus, a thorough understanding of temperature changes of the hydrogen gas and the heat transfer to the tank walls is essential. The effects of initial pressure, filling time, and fill procedure were investigated to quantify the temperature change and verify the accuracy of the models. In this paper we show that the predictions of mass averaged gas temperature for the one and three-dimensional models compare well with the experiment and both can be used to make predictions for final mass delivery. Furthermore, due to buoyancy and other three-dimensional effects, however, the maximum wall temperature cannot be predicted using one-dimensional tools alone which means that a three-dimensional analysis is required for a safety assessment of the system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2011

Validation of Space Weather Models at Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. Space weather models and coupled model chains hosted at the CCMC range from the solar corona to the Earth's upper atmosphere. CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as a large number of modeling and data products tailored to address the space weather needs of NASA's robotic missions. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. CCMC has been leading recent comprehensive modeling challenges under GEM, CEDAR and SHINE programs. The presentation will focus on experience in carrying out comprehensive and systematic validation of large sets of. space weather models

Kuznetsova, M. M.↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-630: Predictive Modeling of Mortality, Tumor Control, and Normal Tissue Complications After Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy for Stage I Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Purpose: While rates of local control have been well characterized after stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), less data are available characterizing survival and normal tissue toxicities, and no validated models exist assessing these parameters after SBRT. We evaluate the reliability of various machine learning techniques when applied to radiation oncology datasets to create predictive models of mortality, tumor control, and normal tissue complications. Methods: A dataset of 204 consecutive patients with stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) at the University of Pennsylvania between 2009 and 2013 was used to create predictive models of tumor control, normal tissue complications, and mortality in this IRB-approved study. Nearly 200 data fields of detailed patient- and tumor-specific information, radiotherapy dosimetric measurements, and clinical outcomes data were collected. Predictive models were created for local tumor control, 1- and 3-year overall survival, and nodal failure using 60% of the data (leaving the remainder as a test set). After applying feature selection and dimensionality reduction, nonlinear support vector classification was applied to the resulting features. Models were evaluated for accuracy and area under ROC curve on the 81-patient test set. Results: Models for common events in the dataset (such as mortality at one year) had the highest predictive power (AUC = .67, p < 0.05). For rare occurrences such as radiation pneumonitis and local failure (each occurring in less than 10% of patients), too few events were present to create reliable models. Conclusion: Although this study demonstrates the validity of predictive analytics using information extracted from patient medical records and can most reliably predict for survival after SBRT, larger sample sizes are needed to develop predictive models for normal tissue toxicities and more advanced machine learning methodologies need be consider in the future.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Investigation of post-injection strategies for diesel engine Catalyst Heating Operation using a vapor-liquid-equilibrium-based spray model

Most multidimensional engine simulations spend much time solving for non-equilibrium spray dynamics (atomization, collision, vaporization). However, their accuracy is limited by significant grid dependency, and the need for extensive calibration. This is critical for modeling cold-start diesel fuel post injections, which occur at low temperatures and pressures, far from typical model validation ranges. At the same time, resolving micron-scale spray phenomena would render full Eulerian multiphase calculations prohibitive. In this study, an improved phase equilibrium based approach was implemented and assessed for simulating diesel catalyst heating operation strategies. A phase equilibrium solver based on the model by Yue and Reitz [1] was implemented: a fully multiphase CFD solver is employed with an engineering-size engine grid, and fuel injection is modeled using the standard Lagrangian parcels approach. Mass and energy from the liquid parcels are released to the Eulerian multiphase mixture according to an equilibrium-based liquid jet model. An improved phase equilibrium solver was developed to handle large real-gas mixtures such as those from accurate chemical kinetics mechanisms. The liquid-jet model was improved such that momentum transfer to the Eulerian solver better reproduces the physical spray jet structure. Validation of liquid/vapor penetration predictions showed that the model yields accurate results with very limited tuning and low sensitivity to the few calibration constants. In-cylinder simulations of diesel catalyst heating operation strategies showed that capturing spray structure is paramount when short, transient injection pulses and low temperatures are present. Furthermore, the EP model provides improved predictions of post-injection spray structure and ignitability, while conventional spray modeling does not capture the increase of liquid penetration during the expansion stroke. Finally, the only important EP model calibration constant, Cliq, does not affect momentum transfer, but it changes the local charge cooling distribution through the local energy transfer, which makes it candidate to additional research. The results confirm that non-equilibrium spray processes do not need to be resolved in engineering simulations of high-pressure diesel sprays.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Dynamic order reduction of thin-film deposition kinetics models: A reaction factorization approach

A set of numerical tools for the analysis and dynamic dimension reduction of chemical vapor and atomic layer deposition (ALD) surface reaction models is developed in this work. The approach is based on a two-step process where in the first, the chemical species surface balance dynamic equations are factored to effectively decouple the (nonlinear) reaction rates, a process that eliminates redundant dynamic modes and that identifies conserved quantities. If successful, the second phase is implemented to factor out redundant dynamic modes when species relatively minor in concentration are omitted; if unsuccessful, the technique points to potential model structural problems. An alumina ALD process is used for an example consisting of 19 reactions and 23 surface and gas-phase species. Using the approach developed, the model is reduced by nineteen modes to a four-dimensional dynamic system without any knowledge of the reaction rate values. Results are interpreted in the context of potential model validation studies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2015

CAEBAT OAS/VIBE Production Release v1.1

The objective of the project is to develop a mathematical and computational infrastructure, and modeling framework that will enable seamless multi-scale and multi-physics simulations of battery performance and safety. The modeling framework will transfer the information between models in a physically consistent and mathematically rigorous fashion for both spatial and temporal variations. The end result will be a verified, computationally scalable, portable, and flexible (extensible and easily-modified) framework that can integrate models from the other CAEBAT tasks and industrial partners. The framework will be used to validate models and modeling approaches against experiments and to support rapid prototyping of advanced battery concepts. Fig. 2 shows different parts of CAEBAT VIBE simulation environment that work together to provide user with flexibility in the problem setup, solution formulation and simulation launch. Each of the parts is discussed in subsequent sections with corresponding examples.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2016

HyRAM V1.0 User Guide

Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM) is a prototype software toolkit that integrates data and methods relevant to assessing the safety of hydrogen fueling and storage infrastructure. The HyRAM toolkit integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing the impact of hydrogen hazards, including thermal effects from jet fires and thermal pressure effects from deflagration. HyRAM version 1.0 incorporates generic probabilities for equipment failures for nine types of components, and probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, with computationally and experimentally validated models of various aspects of gaseous hydrogen release and flame physics. This document provides an example of how to use HyRAM to conduct analysis of a fueling facility. This document will guide users through the software and how to enter and edit certain inputs that are specific to the user-defined facility. Description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM is provided in [1]. This User’s Guide is intended to capture the main features of HyRAM version 1.0 (any HyRAM version numbered as 1.0.X.XXX). This user guide was created with HyRAM 1.0.1.798. Due to ongoing software development activities, newer versions of HyRAM may have differences from this guide.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS2003

Understanding the Effect of Land Cover Classification on Model Estimates of Regional Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest Biome

The original objectives of this proposed 3-year project were to: 1) quantify the respective contributions of land cover and disturbance (i.e., wild fire) to uncertainty associated with regional carbon source/sink estimates produced by a variety of boreal ecosystem models; 2) identify the model processes responsible for differences in simulated carbon source/sink patterns for the boreal forest; 3) validate model outputs using tower and field- based estimates of NEP and NPP; and 4) recommend/prioritize improvements to boreal ecosystem carbon models, which will better constrain regional source/sink estimates for atmospheric C02. These original objectives were subsequently distilled to fit within the constraints of a 1 -year study. This revised study involved a regional model intercomparison over the BOREAS study region involving Biome-BGC, and TEM (A.D. McGuire, UAF) ecosystem models. The major focus of these revised activities involved quantifying the sensitivity of regional model predictions associated with land cover classification uncertainties. We also evaluated the individual and combined effects of historical fire activity, historical atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and climate change on carbon and water flux simulations within the BOREAS study region.

Kimball, John↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Connection between Model Performance on the CCMVal Transport Diagnostics and Simulated Sensitivity of Ozone to Chlorine Change

The chemistry climate models that contributed simulations for past and future ozone evolution to the 2010 Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion were subject to extensive evaluation by the SPARC (Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate) CCMVal (Chemistry-Climate Model Validation) activity. The sensitivity of ozone to changes in composition and climate varies among the models, but the relationship between these variations and the model evaluations of CCMVal is not obvious. We have learned that the transport evaluation can be used to interpret the comparisons between observed and simulated columns of chlorine reservoirs, hydrochloric acid (HCl) and chlorine nitrate (ClONO2); these comparisons were part of the CCMVal evaluation of chemistry. The simulations with best performance on the transport diagnostics most faithfully reproduce the evolution and seasonal variation of the chlorine reservoirs as observed at NDACC (Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change) stations (NyAlesund 78.9N, Kiruna 67.8N, Harestua 60.2N, Jungfraujoch 46.6N, Toronto 43.6N, Kitt Peak 31.9N, Izana 28.3N, Mauna Loa 19.5N, Lauder 45S and Arrival Heights 77.8S). In the simulations, the HCl in the lower stratosphere depends on total inorganic chlorine (Cly) and partitioning between HCl and ClON02. Total inorganic chlorine depends on the fractional release of chlorine from source gases, and ratio of ClON02 to HCl is inversely dependent on methane and varies quadratically with ozone. Simulated HCl from various models may agree with observations even though Cly is in error, partitioning is in error, or both. Simulated ozone sensitivity to chlorine is shown to be greater for models that produce larger values of chlorine nitrate for background chlorine levels, and vice versa. Comparisons with the NDACC data show why the models with 'best' transport have similar sensitivity to chlorine change. The realistic evolution of the simulated HCl and ClONO2 columns suggests realistic levels of Cly in the lower atmosphere. In addition, the wide range values for the sensitivity of ozone to chlorine obtained from the CCMVal simulations is explained by the wide range in lower atmospheric columns of ClONO2 and the concomitant wide range of levels for chlorine monoxide.

Douglass, Anne↗

NASA NTRS2018

Evaluation of Modeling NO2 Concentrations Driven by Satellite-Derived and Bottom-Up Emission Inventories Using In-Situ Measurements Over China

Chemical transport models together with emission inventories are widely used to simulate NO2 concentrations over China, but validation of the simulations with in situ measurements has been extremely limited. Here we use ground measurements obtained from the air quality monitoring network recently developed by the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China to validate modeling surface NO2 concentrations from the CHIMERE regional chemical transport model driven by the satellite-derived DECSO and the bottom-up MIX emission inventories. We applied a correction factor to the observations to account for the interferences of other oxidized nitrogen compounds (NOz), based on the modeled ratio of NO2 to NOz. The model accurately reproduces the spatial variability in NO2 from in situ measurements, with a spatial correlation coefficient of over 0.7 for simulations based on both inventories. A negative and positive bias is found for the simulation with the DECSO (slopeD0.74 and 0.64 for the daily mean and daytime only) and the MIX (slopeD1.3 and 1.1) inventories, respectively, suggesting an underestimation and overestimation of NOx emissions from corresponding inventories. The bias between observed and modeled concentrations is reduced, with the slope dropping from 1.3 to 1.0 when the spatial distribution of NOx emissions in the DECSO inventory is applied as the spatial proxy for the MIX inventory, which suggests an improvement of the distribution of emissions between urban and suburban or rural areas in the DECSO inventory compared to that used in the bottom-up inventory. A rough estimate indicates that the observed concentrations, from sites predominantly placed in the populated urban areas, may be 10-40% higher than the corresponding model grid cell mean. This reduces the estimate of the negative bias of the DECSO-based simulation to the range of -30 to 0% on average and more firmly establishes that the MIX inventory is biased high over major cities. The performance of the model is comparable over seasons, with a slightly worse spatial correlation in summer due to the difficulties in resolving the more active NOx photochemistry and larger concentration gradients in summer by the model. In addition, the model well captures the daytime diurnal cycle but shows more significant disagreement between simulations and measurements during nighttime, which likely produces a positive model bias of about 15% in the daily mean concentrations. This is most likely related to the uncertainty in vertical mixing in the model at night.

NO2 modelling↗

NASA NTRS2021

The First Global 883 GHz Cloud Ice Survey: IceCube Level 1 Data Calibration, Processing and Analysis

Sub-millimeter (sub-mm, 200 - 1000 GHz) wavelengths contribute a unique capability to fill-in the sensitivity gap between operational visible/infrared (VIS/IR) and microwave (MW) remote sensing for atmosphere cloud ice and snow. Being able of penetrating cloud to measure cloud ice mass and microphysical properties in the middle to upper troposphere, this is a critical spectrum range for us to understand the connection between cloud ice and precipitation processes.5As the first space-borne 883 GHz radiometer, IceCube mission was NASA’s latest effort in spaceflight demonstration of a commercial sub-mm radiometer technology. Successfully launched from the International Space Station, IceCube is essentially a free-running radiometer and collected valuable 15-month measurements of atmosphere and cloud ice. This paper describes the detailed procedures for Level 1 data calibration, processing and validation. The scientific quality and values of IceCube data are then discussed, including radiative transfer model validation and evaluation, as well as the unique spatial distribution10and diurnal cycle of cloud ice that are revealed for the first time on a quasi-global scale at this frequency.

IceCube↗

NASA NTRS2021

The First Global 883 GHz Cloud Ice Survey: IceCube Level 1 Data Calibration, Processing and Analysis

Jie Gong↗

DOE OSTI2014

HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) v. 1.0 (alpha)

HyRAM is a software toolkit that integrates data and methods relevant to assessing the safety of hydrogen fueling and storage infrastructure. The HyRAM toolkit integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing the impact of hydrogen hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, thermal pressure effects from deflagrations) on people and structures. HyRAM incorporates generic probabilities for equipment failures for nine types of components, and probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, with computationally and experimentally validated models of hydrogen release and flame physics. Version 1.0.0.280 can be used to quantify the likelihood and thermal consequences associated with gaseous hydrogen releases from user-defined hydrogen installations.

Groth, Katrina M.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Importance of treating correlations in the uncertainty quantification of radiation damage metrics - 25461

The radiation effects community embraces the importance of quantifying uncertainty in model predictions and the importance of propagating this uncertainty into the integral metrics used to validate models, but they are not always aware of the importance of addressing the energy- and reaction-dependent correlations in the underlying uncertainty contributors. This paper presents a rigorous high-fidelity Total Monte Carlo approach that addresses the correlation in the underlying uncertainty components and quantifies the role of both energy and reaction-dependent correlations in a sample application that addresses the damage metrics relevant to silicon semiconductors. (authors)

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

NASA NTRS2005

Active Aeroelastic Wing Aerodynamic Model Development and Validation for a Modified F/A-18A Airplane

A new aerodynamic model has been developed and validated for a modified F/A-18A airplane used for the Active Aeroelastic Wing (AAW) research program. The goal of the program was to demonstrate the advantages of using the inherent flexibility of an aircraft to enhance its performance. The research airplane was an F/A-18A with wings modified to reduce stiffness and a new control system to increase control authority. There have been two flight phases. Data gathered from the first flight phase were used to create the new aerodynamic model. A maximum-likelihood output-error parameter estimation technique was used to obtain stability and control derivatives. The derivatives were incorporated into the National Aeronautics and Space Administration F-18 simulation, validated, and used to develop new AAW control laws. The second phase of flights was used to evaluate the handling qualities of the AAW airplane and the control law design process, and to further test the accuracy of the new model. The flight test envelope covered Mach numbers between 0.85 and 1.30 and dynamic pressures from 600 to 1250 pound-force per square foot. The results presented in this report demonstrate that a thorough parameter identification analysis can be used to improve upon models that were developed using other means. This report describes the parameter estimation technique used, details the validation techniques, discusses differences between previously existing F/A-18 models, and presents results from the second phase of research flights.

Cumming, Stephen B.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Model-based economic analysis under uncertainty for PFAS treatment by granular activated carbon and ion exchange technologies

Recent drinking water regulations have imposed the need for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) remediation. In response, treatment facilities may be required to retrofit existing treatment schemes to treat PFAS below maximum contaminant levels (MCLs). Adsorption technologies such as granular activated carbon (GAC) and ion exchange (IX) have been demonstrated to be effective; however, there are limited techno-economic metrics available which provide guidance on technology selection and design for diverse PFAS-containing source water conditions. Process systems engineering (PSE) tools which can traditionally perform these analyses are hindered by the data availability, model validity, and understanding of treatment phenomena for emerging contaminants. This work employs published data regressions, statistical models, process models, techno-economic analyses, and other process systems tools in a model-based uncertainty framework to consider the limitations of emerging contaminant research. Through this analysis framework, economic results are provided as probabilistic distributions based on the uncertainty of the models and diverse conditions that treatment facilities experience.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2017

Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium - Testing and Verification

This paper highlights some of the unique testing capabilities and projects being performed at several national laboratories as part of the U. S. Department of Energy Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium. As part of this effort, the Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium Testing Network isbeing developed to accelerate grid modernization by enablingaccess to a comprehensive testing infrastructure and creating a repository of validated models and simulation tools that will be publicly available. This work is key to accelerating thedevelopment, validation, standardization, adoption, and deployment of new grid technologies to help meet U. S. energy goals.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2016

TH-CD-207A-08: Simulated Real-Time Image Guidance for Lung SBRT Patients Using Scatter Imaging

Purpose: To develop a comprehensive Monte Carlo-based model for the acquisition of scatter images of patient anatomy in real-time, during lung SBRT treatment. Methods: During SBRT treatment, images of patient anatomy can be acquired from scattered radiation. To rigorously examine the utility of scatter images for image guidance, a model is developed using MCNP code to simulate scatter images of phantoms and lung cancer patients. The model is validated by comparing experimental and simulated images of phantoms of different complexity. The differentiation between tissue types is investigated by imaging objects of known compositions (water, lung, and bone equivalent). A lung tumor phantom, simulating materials and geometry encountered during lung SBRT treatments, is used to investigate image noise properties for various quantities of delivered radiation (monitor units(MU)). Patient scatter images are simulated using the validated simulation model. 4DCT patient data is converted to an MCNP input geometry accounting for different tissue composition and densities. Lung tumor phantom images acquired with decreasing imaging time (decreasing MU) are used to model the expected noise amplitude in patient scatter images, producing realistic simulated patient scatter images with varying temporal resolution. Results: Image intensity in simulated and experimental scatter images of tissue equivalent objects (water, lung, bone) match within the uncertainty (∼3%). Lung tumor phantom images agree as well. Specifically, tumor-to-lung contrast matches within the uncertainty. The addition of random noise approximating quantum noise in experimental images to simulated patient images shows that scatter images of lung tumors can provide images in as fast as 0.5 seconds with CNR∼2.7. Conclusions: A scatter imaging simulation model is developed and validated using experimental phantom scatter images. Following validation, lung cancer patient scatter images are simulated. These simulated patient images demonstrate the clinical utility of scatter imaging for real-time tumor tracking during lung SBRT.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗