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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Collaborative Project: Three-Dimensional Structure of the Southern Ocean Overturning Circulation

The large-scale upwelling in the Southern Ocean provides a pathway for the deep and abyssal water masses of the global ocean to return to the surface, creating a mechanism for the exchange of carbon and heat between the deep ocean water masses and the atmosphere. Despite the significance of the overturning circulation in the Southern Ocean for global climate, very little is known about the depth and longitudinal distribution of the overturning pathways and their influence on heat uptake, regional sea level change and ocean carbon transport. The focus of this grant was to assess the three-dimensional structure of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation in models and observations, with the following three objectives: 1. Quantify and contrast modeled (using GFDL and CESM models) and observed (Argo based) upwelling pathways in the Southern Ocean. 2. Evaluate the impact of model resolution on transport pathways and the associated meridional fluxes of heat and salt. 3. Determine the influence of climate-driven changes in upwelling on the regional patterns and magnitude of heat and carbon uptake and sea level change. We have successfully achieved our three objectives through (1) running Southern Ocean particle tracking simulations in global coupled models with varying resolutions, and (2) quantifying the role played by the overturning circulation and its changes to the surface heat and carbon uptake, in climate models as well as observations. The research funded under this grant led to 8 published papers and 2 submitted papers, with 2 additional papers in preparation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change

Detection and attribution (D&A) of forced precipitation change are challenging due to internal variability, limited spatial, and temporal coverage of observational records and model uncertainty. These factors result in a low signal-to-noise ratio of potential regional and even global trends. Here, we use a statistical method – ridge regression – to create physically interpretable fingerprints for the detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation with a high signal-to-noise ratio. The fingerprints are constructed using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model output masked to match coverage of three gridded precipitation observational datasets – GHCNDEX, HadEX3, and GPCC – and are then applied to these observational datasets to assess the degree of forced change detectable in the real-world climate in the period 1951–2020. We show that the signature of forced change is detected in all three observational datasets for global metrics of mean and extreme precipitation. Forced changes are still detectable from changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation even if the global mean trend is removed from the data. This shows the detection of forced change in mean and extreme precipitation beyond a global mean trend is robust and increases confidence in the detection method's power as well as in climate models' ability to capture the relevant processes that contribute to large-scale patterns of change. We also find, however, that detectability depends on the observational dataset used. Not only coverage differences but also observational uncertainty contribute to dataset disagreement, exemplified by the times of emergence of forced change from internal variability ranging from 1998 to 2004 among datasets. Furthermore, different choices for the period over which the forced trend is computed result in different levels of agreement between observations and model projections. These sensitivities may explain apparent contradictions in recent studies on whether models under- or overestimate the observed forced increase in mean and extreme precipitation. Lastly, the detection fingerprints are found to rely primarily on the signal in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, which is at least partly due to observational coverage but potentially also due to the presence of a more robust signal in the Northern Hemisphere in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

International collaboration on used fuel disposition crystalline rocks

Active participation in international R&D is crucial for achieving the UFD long-term goals of conducting “experiments to fill data needs and confirm advanced modeling approaches” (by 2015) and of having a “robust modeling and experimental basis for evaluation of multiple disposal system options” (by 2020). DOE’s Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) and its Office of Used Fuel Disposition Research and Development (UFD) have developed a strategic plan to advance cooperation with international partners. The international collaboration on the evaluation of crystalline disposal media at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in FY16 focused on the following four activities: (1) thermal-hydrologic-mechanical-chemical modeling single fracture evolution; (2) simulations of flow and transport in Bedrichov Tunnel, Czech Republic, (3) completion of streaming potential testing at Korean Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), and (4) technical data exchange with KAERI on thermal-hydrologic-mechanical (THM) properties and specifications of bentonite buffer materials. The first two activities are part of the Development of Coupled Models and their Validation against Experiments (DECOVALEX-2015) project.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Collaborative Research: Quantifying the Uncertainties of Aerosol Indirect Effects and Impacts on Decadal-Scale Climate Variability in NCAR CAM5 and CESM1

The goal of this proposed project is to assess the climatic importance and sensitivity of aerosol indirect effect (AIE) to cloud and aerosol processes and feedbacks, which include organic aerosol hygroscopicity, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation kinetics, Giant CCN, cloud-scale entrainment, ice nucleation in mixed-phase and cirrus clouds, and treatment of subgrid variability of vertical velocity. A key objective was to link aerosol, cloud microphysics and dynamics feedbacks in CAM5 with a suite of internally consistent and integrated parameterizations that provide the appropriate degrees of freedom to capture the various aspects of the aerosol indirect effect. The proposal integrated new parameterization elements into the cloud microphysics, moist turbulence and aerosol modules used by the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5). The CAM5 model was then used to systematically quantify the uncertainties of aerosol indirect effects through a series of sensitivity tests with present-day and preindustrial aerosol emissions. New parameterization elements were developed as a result of these efforts, and new diagnostic tools & methodologies were also developed to quantify the impacts of aerosols on clouds and climate within fully coupled models. Observations were used to constrain key uncertainties in the aerosol-cloud links. Advanced sensitivity tools were developed and implements to probe the drivers of cloud microphysical variability with unprecedented temporal and spatial scale. All these results have been published in top and high impact journals (or are in the final stages of publication). This proposal has also supported a number of outstanding graduate students.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Overview of Liquid-Metal PFC R&D at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

The design and implementation of future flowing liquid-lithium plasma-facing components (LLPFCs) will be dependent on several factors. Of course, one of the most important is the need to be able to deal with high heat fluxes incident on the surface of the LLPFCs, but there are also several other important liquid-metal behaviors that have been identified for their critical impact on the feasibility of a LLPFC. One of these is the ability to constantly wet 100% of the plasma-facing component area and the best way to achieve that. Another key point is knowing and understanding the erosion and corrosion of the surfaces subject to a flowing liquid-lithium system and the ability for hydrogen and helium uptake by the system. The Center for Plasma Material Interactions (CPMI) has been tasked with looking at these various issues. The Mock-up Entry module for EAST device was used to investigate wetting and erosion effects and to design a suitable distribution and collection system with a liquid-lithium loop. The vapor shielding effects of lithium on the surface were also modeled and studied. A model coupling CRANE, an open-source global reaction network solver, and Zapdos, a plasma transport solver, is being developed to better understand the dynamics of the vapor cloud. Experiments on the Magnum-PSI at the Dutch Institute for Fundamental Energy Research have been carried out to study the vapor shielding effect and obtain experimental benchmarks to verify the model. Also, initial experiments using the Hybrid Illinois Device for Research and Applications have been performed to understand the pumping effects of lithium on helium. Experiments with a drop of liquid lithium (~100 mg) into a helium plasma have shown the ability of lithium to take out the cold recycling helium gas as well as hydrogen and oxygen impurity gases. The improvement in plasma performance was significant, and further understanding of this effect will have impacts on how future LLPFCs will be designed. Further investigation into the exact mechanism for helium pumping by lithium needs to be performed in the future. Finally, this paper presents a summary of the results obtained at the CPMI.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Assessing shellfish water exposure to fecal bacteria pollution in Salish Sea: three-dimensional modeling and implications for monitoring

Fecal bacteria (FB) contamination poses significant risks to shellfish safety and management in coastal and estuarine waters. Despite extensive pollution identification and correction efforts, FB contamination in shellfish-growing areas persists in the Salish Sea, highlighting the need to identify overlooked sources and better understand FB transport from riverine and shoreline inputs to shellfish beds. To address this, a high-resolution three-dimensional hydrodynamic model coupled with FB kinetics was developed and applied to a case study site in Salish Sea—Portage Bay—to simulate freshwater plume circulation, flushing dynamics, and bacterial transport. Daily FB loading from the major freshwater inflow—Nooksack River was generated by both linear interpolation and integrating a machine learning approach (XGBoost), trained on historical hydrological and meteorological data. The model successfully reproduced both the magnitude and seasonal variation of FB concentrations in Portage Bay for the year of 2021, demonstrating that simplified FB kinetics with first-order decay due to mortality was effective in this dynamic coastal environment with short flushing time. Model results identified the Nooksack River as the dominant far-field FB source, while scenario simulations showed that near-field coastal stormwater outfalls elevated local FB levels following rainfall, particularly under low-flow conditions. The XGBoost prediction provided comparable or superior accuracy to linear interpolation, particularly during periods of missing observational data, by capturing short-term variability and event-driven loading more effectively. Integrating data-driven riverine FB inputs with mechanistic coastal numerical modeling provides a robust framework for operational forecasting of shellfish bed exposure risk and supports adaptive monitoring and management of shellfish growing areas in the Salish Sea and similar coastal systems.

Salish Sea↗

Enhancement and control of laser wakefields via a backward Raman amplifier

The Backward Raman Amplifier (BRA) is proposed as a possible scheme for improving laser driven plasma wakefields. One- and two-dimensional particle-in-cell code simulations and a 3-Wave coupling model are presented and compared to demonstrate how the BRA can be applied to the laser wakefield accelerator (LWFA) in the non-relativistic regime to counteract limitations such as pump depletion and diffraction. This article provides a discussion on optimal parameters for the combination of BRA and LWFA and a prescription for a BRA pump frequency chirp to ensure coupling beyond the particle dephasing limit. Simulation results demonstrate a reduction or alleviation of the effects of diffraction and an increase in wake amplitude and sustainability and provide direct insights into new methods of controlling plasma wakes in LWFA and other applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Galileons and strong gravity

In the context of a cubic Galileon model in which the Vainshtein mechanism suppresses the scalar field interactions with matter, we study low-density stars with slow rotation and static relativistic stars. We develop an expansion scheme to find approximated solutions inside the Vainshtein radius, and show that deviations from General Relativity (GR), while considering rotation, are also suppressed by the Vainshtein mechanism. In a quadratic coupling model, in which the scalarisation effect can significantly enhance deviations from GR in normal scalar tensor gravity, the Galileon term successfully suppresses the large deviations away from GR. Moreover, using a realistic equation of state, we construct solutions for a relativistic star, and show that deviations from GR are more suppressed for higher density objects. However, we found that the scalar field solution ceases to exist above a critical density, which roughly corresponds to the maximum mass of a neutron star. This indicates that, for a compact object described by a polytropic equation of state, the configuration that would collapse into a black hole cannot support a non-trivial scalar field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters

Abstract A branch‐run perturbed‐physics ensemble in the Community Earth System Model estimates impacts of parameters in the deep convection scheme on current hydroclimate and on end‐of‐century precipitation change projections under global warming. Regional precipitation change patterns prove highly sensitive to these parameters, especially in the tropics with local changes exceeding 3 mm/d, comparable to the magnitude of the predicted change and to differences in global warming predictions among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. This sensitivity is distributed nonlinearly across the feasible parameter range, notably in the low‐entrainment range of the parameter for turbulent entrainment in the deep convection scheme. This suggests that a useful target for parameter sensitivity studies is to identify such disproportionately sensitive “dangerous ranges.” The low‐entrainment range is used to illustrate the reduction in global warming regional precipitation sensitivity that could occur if this dangerous range can be excluded based on evidence from current climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FEFF analysis of americium oxides

The Am N 4,5 (4d 3/2 and 4d 5/2 ) and Am O 4,5 (5d 3/2 and 5d 5/2 ) x-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) of americium sesquioxide (Am 2 O 3 ) and americium dioxide (AmO 2 ) has been evaluated with FEFF, a Green's function–based, multiple scattering code. Taking guidance from the intermediate coupling model (ICM), applicable to local and nonmagnetized samples, it is possible to completely reconstruct the experimental results for the N 4,5 spectra, including the observed differences between the Am 2 O 3 and the AmO 2 cases. Although complicated by a more asymmetric line shape and difficult background variations, the FEFF analysis confirms the absence of core hole angular momentum coupling in Am O 4,5 spectroscopy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Linking hydraulic traits to tropical forest function in a size-structured and trait-driven model (TFS v.1-Hydro)

Abstract. Forest ecosystem models based on heuristic water stress functions poorly predict tropical forest response to drought partly because they do not capture the diversity of hydraulic traits (including variation in tree size) observed in tropical forests. We developed a continuous porous media approach to modeling plant hydraulics in which all parameters of the constitutive equations are biologically interpretable and measurable plant hydraulic traits (e.g., turgor loss point πtlp, bulk elastic modulus ε, hydraulic capacitance Cft, xylem hydraulic conductivity ks,max, water potential at 50 % loss of conductivity for both xylem (P50,x) and stomata (P50,gs), and the leaf : sapwood area ratio Al : As). We embedded this plant hydraulics model within a trait forest simulator (TFS) that models light environments of individual trees and their upper boundary conditions (transpiration), as well as providing a means for parameterizing variation in hydraulic traits among individuals. We synthesized literature and existing databases to parameterize all hydraulic traits as a function of stem and leaf traits, including wood density (WD), leaf mass per area (LMA), and photosynthetic capacity (Amax), and evaluated the coupled model (called TFS v.1-Hydro) predictions, against observed diurnal and seasonal variability in stem and leaf water potential as well as stand-scaled sap flux. Our hydraulic trait synthesis revealed coordination among leaf and xylem hydraulic traits and statistically significant relationships of most hydraulic traits with more easily measured plant traits. Using the most informative empirical trait–trait relationships derived from this synthesis, TFS v.1-Hydro successfully captured individual variation in leaf and stem water potential due to increasing tree size and light environment, with model representation of hydraulic architecture and plant traits exerting primary and secondary controls, respectively, on the fidelity of model predictions. The plant hydraulics model made substantial improvements to simulations of total ecosystem transpiration. Remaining uncertainties and limitations of the trait paradigm for plant hydraulics modeling are highlighted.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Climate Model Output Rewriter

The Climate Model Output Rewriter (CMOR) software was first developed by LLNL’s PCMDI program in early 2000s and was formally released with v1.0 (July 2006), v2.0 (January 2011), and v3.1(June 2016). CMOR is used to produce Climate and Forecast Convention (http://cfconventions.org/) CF-compliant netCDF files, in the standard format required to satisfy the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The software has been used across multiple phases of the Earth System Modeling (ESM) project CMIP (CMIP3, CMIP5, CMIP6, and planned use in CMIP7) along with numerous parallel projects focused on preparation observations for use in model evaluation (obs4MIPs) and forcing datasets (input4MIPs) to guide ESM simulations to meet strict experimental protocols. More information can be obtained from the CMOR website and code repositories: https://cmor.llnl.gov/; https://github.com/pcmdi/cmor; https://github.com/PCMDI/cmor3_documentation The ESM variable definitions used as input for CMOR can also be viewed in code repositories: https://github.com/PCMDI/cmip3-cmor-tables/; https://github.com/PCMDI/cmip5-cmor-tables/; https://github.com/PCMDI/cmip6-cmor-tables/

Mauzey, ChristopherF↗

Advancing uncertainty characterization for understanding projected water scarcity in multi-sector, multi-actor river basins across scales.

Invited Talk at AGU Fall Meeting 2023 Modeling how human institutions and infrastructure interact with the water cycle is essential to better understand the vulnerability, and resilience of water resources systems from the local to the global scale. This is especially true when investigating multi-sector, multi-actor responses to the effects of long-term changes and short-term shocks. It is also well recognized that uncertainty present throughout the modeling cycle (e.g., in data, functional relations, and model coupling approaches) limits our ability to trace the interactive dynamics of human-water systems, as well as to quantify their implications for management and planning. Systems with large numbers of diverse stakeholders further compound this challenge, as uncertain drivers and complex dynamics might have very disparate effects on water users. The work presented is conducted through the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) Science Focus Area, which explores how human and natural systems co-evolve in response to change. Through this multi-year effort, we have developed exploratory modeling methods to better characterize how the uncertain human and natural drivers of water scarcity yield consequential vulnerabilities in institutionally complex, multi-sectoral systems. This talk will specifically present on a series of uncertainty characterization experiments performed in the Upper Colorado River Basin, a sub-basin of the Colorado with thousands of water users. These complementary and systematic experiments are aimed at understanding: How are various uncertain stressors (e.g., climate change, demand growth) affecting the diverse water users of this basin in terms of water shortage? What are the key drivers of this shortage for each user? Methods and results from this work are used to address additional questions on the ability of adaptation to modulate the effects of these uncertain drivers, and on their compounding effects across spatial scales and through sectoral interactions.

Hadjimichael, Antonia↗

Development of a concurrent coupled Atomistic - Continuum model to predict the defect and grain structure for Additive Manufacturing process [Slides]

Development of a coupled atomistic-continuum model for metal AM process. Two-way coupling between atomistic (heat flux) and continuum (temperature) domain. Identification of grain and dislocation structure at the atomistic domain. Conversion of dislocation data from discrete atomistic to density form at the continuum. Obtain the spatial distribution of grain structure and dislocation density in additively manufactured metal polycrystal material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Direct implicit and explicit energy-conserving particle-in-cell methods for modeling of capacitively coupled plasma devices

Achieving large-scale kinetic modeling is a crucial task for the development and optimization of modern plasma devices. With the trend of decreasing pressure in applications, such as plasma etching, kinetic simulations are necessary to self-consistently capture the particle dynamics. The standard, explicit, electrostatic, momentum-conserving particle-in-cell method suffers from restrictive stability constraints on spatial cell size and temporal time step, requiring resolution of the electron Debye length and electron plasma period, respectively. This results in a very high computational cost, making the technique prohibitive for large volume device modeling. We investigate the direct implicit algorithm and the explicit energy conserving algorithm as alternatives to the standard approach, both of which can reduce computational cost with a minimal (or controllable) impact on results. These algorithms are implemented into the well-tested EDIPIC-2D and LTP-PIC codes, and their performance is evaluated via 2D capacitively coupled plasma discharge simulations. The investigation reveals that both approaches enable the utilization of cell sizes larger than the Debye length, resulting in a reduced runtime, while incurring only minor inaccuracies in plasma parameters. The direct implicit method also allows for time steps larger than the electron plasma period; however, care must be taken to avoid numerical heating or cooling. It is demonstrated that by appropriately adjusting the ratio of cell size to time step, it is possible to mitigate this effect to an acceptable level.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Monte Carlo Model of Irradiation-Induced Recrystallization in Polycrystalline UMo Fuels

Experiments show that irradiation-induced recrystallization speeds up the swelling kinetics in U10wt%Mo fuels. However, recrystallization mechanisms and the effect of initial grain microstructures on recrystallization kinetics are still unclear. In this work a Monte Carlo model coupling the rate theory of defect evolution has been developed to study the irradiation-induced recrystallization. The rate theory is used to describe the spatial evolution of gas bubbles, interstitials and interstitial loops; First-Passage Kinetic Monte Carlo (FPKMC) approach is used to describe the fast and strongly anisotropic migration of interstitials, and a Cellular Automata method is used to model the formation of recrystallized grains. With the assumption that recrystallization may occur when the local interstitial loop density is larger than a given critical value, simulation results reveal that 1) recrystallized grains first nucleate on grain boundaries and the recrystallization zone front moves to the center of original coarse grains in the UMo matrix, and 2) recrystallization starts earlier in coarse polycrystalline structures, while the overall recrystallization kinetics decreases with increasing grain size. These results agree with experimental observations. The comparison of recrystallization kinetics obtained from experiments and modeling suggests that the interstitial loop accumulation leads to the recrystallization and the interstitial loop growth is suppressed inside coarse grains due to the over-pressured intra-granular gas bubbles.

Frazier, William E.↗

A mobile test facility based on a magnetic cumulative generator to study the stability of the power plants under impact of lightning currents

The report presents the results of the development and field testing of a mobile test facility based on a helical magnetic cumulative generator (MCGTF). The system is designed for full-scale modeling of lightning currents to study the safety of power plants of any type, including nuclear power plants. Advanced technologies of high-energy physics for solving both engineering and applied problems underlie this pilot project. The energy from the magnetic cumulative generator (MCG) is transferred to a high-impedance load with high efficiency of more than 50% using pulse transformer coupling. Modeling of the dynamics of the MEG that operates in a circuit with lumped parameters allows one to apply the law of inductance output during operation of the MCG, thus providing the required front of the current pulse in the load without using any switches. The results of field testing of the MCGTF are presented for both the ground loop and the model load. The ground loop generates a load resistance of 2–4 Ω. In the tests, the ohmic resistance of the model load is 10 Ω. It is shown that the current pulse parameters recorded in the resistive-inductive load are close to the calculated values.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Reactive transport modeling for supporting climate resilience at groundwater contamination sites

Abstract. Climate resilience is an emerging issue at contaminated sites and hazardous waste sites, since projected climate shifts (e.g., increased/decreased precipitation) and extreme events (e.g., flooding, drought) could affect ongoing remediation or closure strategies. In this study, we develop a reactive transport model (Amanzi) for radionuclides (uranium, tritium, and others) and evaluate how different scenarios under climate change will influence the contaminant plume conditions and groundwater well concentrations. We demonstrate our approach using a two-dimensional (2D) reactive transport model for the Savannah River Site F-Area, including mineral reaction and sorption processes. Different recharge scenarios are considered by perturbing the infiltration rate from the base case as well as considering cap-failure and climate projection scenarios. We also evaluate the uranium and nitrate concentration ratios between scenarios and the base case to isolate the sorption effects with changing recharge rates. The modeling results indicate that the competing effects of dilution and remobilization significantly influence pH, thus changing the sorption of uranium. At the maximum concentration on the breakthrough curve, higher aqueous uranium concentration implies that sorption is reduced with lower pH due to remobilization. To better evaluate the climate change impacts in the future, we develop the workflow to include the downscaled CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate projection data in the reactive transport model and evaluate how residual contamination evolves through 2100 under four climate Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The integration of climate modeling data and hydrogeochemistry models enables us to quantify the climate change impacts, assess which impacts need to be planned for, and therefore assist climate resiliency efforts and help guide site management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗