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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

A densely spaced array of sea level monitors for the detection of vertical crustal deformation in the Shumagin seismic gap, Alaska

A network of sea level gauges has been installed with about 40 km spacing in the Shumagin Islands in order to detect relative vertical motion, in particular, possible crustal motion precursory to an expected major earthquake. This required the development and deployment of a pressure sensor sea level gauge suitable for installation on remote and harsh coastlines. Data are collected in near-real-time via satellite, both in order to exploit fully any precursors that may be observed and to provide continuous information on the status of the instruments. Using Wiener filtering techniques, it has been determined conservatively that no relative vertical crustal motion greater than 0.1 m between stations has occurred during 1981-1985. This is consistent with independent geodetic leveling and trilateration data, though evidence exists for more rapid deformation during 1978-1980. The sea level data collected so far have an rms noise level of about 0.04 m after processing; this is limited in part by the pressure sensor and associated electronics. Improved prressure gauges with better long-term stability have recently been installed. A short-baseline tiltmeter operating in a tunnel has demonstrated that suitably designed and located land-based tiltmeters have a lower noise level, and hence better precursor detection characteristics than the sea level gauges, at monthly and shorter periods.

Beavan, John↗

Affordable Precursor Flight Experiment for Ultra Lightweight Mirror Technologies

As a follow-on to the spectacular success of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), NASA is currently conducting pre-phase A studies of an even larger aperture telescope, called NGST (Next Generation Space Telescope), that will continue the phenomenal flow of astrophysical discoveries well into the next millennium. Because of the very large aperture required, current NGST concepts have been driven to elaborate schemes of foldable ultra thin and ultra light mirror segment systems that can be deployed on orbit. Due to the complexity of these optical systems, it is imperative that adequate demonstration experiments be flown to verify these new technology concepts before committing to the final design and implementation of the NGST. This paper presents a proposal for a very simple, inexpensive Hitchhiker flight experiment that will determine gravity release effects on very thin mirror segments made from current competitive materials. These experiments will provide the initial data that will be needed before more extensive demonstration flights of the NGST system can be flown.

Guffin, Orville T.↗

Quality Interaction Between Mission Assurance and Project Team Members

Mission Assurance independent assessments started during the development cycle and continued through post launch operations. In operations, Health and Safety of the Observatory is of utmost importance. Therefore, Mission Assurance must ensure requirements compliance and focus on process improvements required across the operational systems including new/modified products, tools, and procedures. The deployment of the interactive model involves three objectives: Team member Interaction, Good Root Cause Analysis Practices, and Risk Assessment to avoid reoccurrences. In applying this model, we use a metric based measurement process and was found to have the most significant effect, which points to the importance of focuses on a combination of root cause analysis and risk approaches allowing the engineers the ability to prioritize and quantify their corrective actions based on a well-defined set of root cause definitions (i.e. closure criteria for problem reports), success criteria and risk rating definitions.

quality↗

Next Generation Solvent Performance in the Modular Caustic Side Solvent Extraction Process - 15495

Changes to the Modular Caustic Side Solvent Extraction Unit (MCU) flow-sheet were implemented in the facility. Implementation included changing the scrub and strip chemicals and concentrations, modifying the O/A ratios for the strip, scrub, and extraction contactor banks, and blending the current BoBCalixC6 extractant-based solvent in MCU with clean MaxCalix extractant-based solvent. During the successful demonstration period, the MCU process was subject to rigorous oversight to ensure hydraulic stability and chemical/radionuclide analysis of the key process tanks (caustic wash tank, solvent hold tank, strip effluent hold tank, and decontaminated salt solution hold tank) to evaluate solvent carryover to downstream facilities and the effectiveness of cesium removal from the liquid salt waste. Results indicated the extraction of cesium was significantly more effective with an average Decontamination Factor (DF) of 1,129 (range was 107 to 1,824) and that stripping was effective. The contactor hydraulic performance was stable and satisfactory, as indicated by contactor vibration, contactor rotational speed, and flow stability; all of which remained at or near target values. Furthermore, the Solvent Hold Tank (SHT) level and specific gravity was as expected, indicating that solvent integrity and organic hydraulic stability were maintained. The coalescer performances were in the range of processing results under the BOBCalixC6 flow sheet, indicating negligible adverse impact of NGS deployment. After the Demonstration period, MCU began processing via routine operations. Results to date reiterate the enhanced cesium extraction and stripping capability of the Next Generation Solvent (NGS) flow sheet. This paper presents process performance results of the NGS Demonstration and continued operations of MCU utilizing the blended BobCalixC6-MaxCalix solvent under the NGS flowsheet.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Revolution…Now The Future Arrives for Five Clean Energy Technologies – 2015 Update

In 2013, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) released the Revolution Now report, highlighting four transformational technologies: land-based wind power, silicon photovoltaic (PV) solar modules, light-emitting diodes (LEDs), and electric vehicles (EVs). That study and its 2014 update showed how dramatic reductions in cost are driving a surge in consumer, industrial, and commercial adoption for these clean energy technologies—as well as yearly progress. In addition to presenting the continued progress made over the last year in these areas, this year’s update goes further. Two separate sections now cover large, central, utility-scale PV plants and smaller, rooftop, distributed PV systems to highlight how both have achieved significant deployment nationwide, and have done so through different innovations, such as easier access to capital for utility-scale PV and reductions of non-hardware costs and third-party ownership for distributed PV. Along with these core technologies

Revolution, future, clean, energy, wind, pv, solar↗

Coupling of Pronghorn and RELAP-7 for a Pebble Bed Reactor

High temperature gas cooled reactors (HTGR) are a candidate for timely Gen-IV reactor technology deployment because of high technology readiness and walk-away safety. Among HTGRs, pebble bed reactors (PBRs) have attractive features such as low excess reactivity and online refueling. Pebble bed reactors pose unique challenges to analysts and reactor designers such as continuous burnup distribution depending on pebble motion and recirculation, radiative heat transfer across a variety of gas-filled gaps, and long design basis transients such as pressurized and depressurized loss of forced circulation. Modeling and simulation is essential for both the PBR’s safety case and design process. In order to verify and validate the new generation codes the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Data bank provide a set of benchmarks data together with solutions calculated by the participants using the state of the art codes of that time. An important milestone to test the new PBR simulation codes is the OECD NEA PBMR-400 benchmark which includes thermal hydraulic and neutron kinetic standalone exercises as well as coupled exercises and transients scenarios. In this work, the reactor multiphysics code MAMMOTH and the thermal hydraulics code Pronghorn, both developed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) within the multiphysics object-oriented simulation environment (MOOSE), have been used to solve Phase 1 exercises 1 and 2 of the PBMR-400 benchmark. The steady state results are in agreement with the other participants’ solutions demonstrating the adequacy of MAMMOTH and Pronghorn for simulating PBRs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Next generation solvent performance in the modular caustic side solvent extraction process - 15495

Changes to the Modular Caustic Side Solvent Extraction Unit (MCU) flow-sheet were implemented in the facility. Implementation included changing the scrub and strip chemicals and concentrations, modifying the O/A ratios for the strip, scrub, and extraction contactor banks, and blending the current BoBCalixC6 extractant based solvent in MCU with clean MaxCalix extractant based solvent. During the successful demonstration period, the MCU process was subject to rigorous oversight to ensure hydraulic stability and chemical/radionuclide analysis of the key process tanks (caustic wash tank, solvent hold tank, strip effluent hold tank, and decontaminated salt solution hold tank) to evaluate solvent carryover to downstream facilities and the effectiveness of cesium removal from the liquid salt waste. Results indicated the extraction of cesium was significantly more effective with an average Decontamination Factor (DF) of 1,129 (range was 107 to 1,824) and that stripping was effective. The contactor hydraulic performance was stable and satisfactory, as indicated by contactor vibration, contactor rotational speed, and flow stability; all of which remained at or near target values. Furthermore, the Solvent Hold Tank (SHT) level and specific gravity was as expected, indicating that solvent integrity and organic hydraulic stability were maintained. The coalescer performances were in the range of processing results under the BOBCalixC6 flow sheet, indicating negligible adverse impact of NGS deployment. After the Demonstration period, MCU began processing via routine operations. Results to date reiterate the enhanced cesium extraction and stripping capability of the Next Generation Solvent (NGS) flow sheet. This paper presents process performance results of the NGS Demonstration and continued operations of MCU utilizing the blended BobCalixC6-MaxCalix solvent under the NGS flowsheet. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Infrastructure improvements in the National Reactor Innovation Center Virtual Test Bed

The National Reactor Innovation Center’s (NRIC) mission is to support deployment of novel reactor concepts. This is achieved by providing physical and virtual spaces for building and testing various components, systems, and complete pilot plants. The Virtual Test Bed (VTB) represents the virtual counterpart to the physical test bed. The VTB is being developed in collaboration with the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. The mission of the VTB is to accelerate the deployment and licensing of advanced reactors by leveraging state-of-the-art modeling and simulation (M&S) tools developed by the DOE NEAMS program. This is accomplished via three primary means: (1) openly hosting simulations that showcase analysis capabilities, (2) continuously testing the models hosted against code updates to avoid deprecation, and (3) filling key M&S gaps that are relevant for the physical NRIC test beds. The VTB repository consists of two sub-entities: • A documentation website detailing the models: https://mooseframework.inl.gov/virtual_test_bed • A GitHub repository that hosts the corresponding files: https://github.com/idaholab/virtual_test_bed. This paper presents the infrastructure added to the VTB in the last two fiscal years. Additional information about the VTB can be found in various publications [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8].

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Status of New Models Hosted on the Virtual Test Bed (VTB) in 2024

The National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) mission is to support deployment of novel reactor concepts. This is achieved by providing physical and virtual spaces for building and testing various components, systems, and complete pilot plants. The Virtual Test Bed (VTB) represents the virtual counterpart to the physical test bed. It is in development in collaboration with the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. The mission of the VTB is to accelerate the deployment and licensing of advanced reactors by leveraging state-of-the-art modeling and simulation (M&S) tools developed by the DOE NEAMS program. This is accomplished by three primary means: (1) openly hosting simulations that showcase analysis capabilities, (2) continuously testing the models hosted against code updates to avoid deprecation, and (3) filling key M&S gaps that are relevant for the physical NRIC test beds. The VTB repository consists of two sub-entities: 1. A documentation website detailing the models (https://mooseframework.inl.gov/virtual_test_bed). 2. A GitHub repository that hosts the corresponding files (https://github.com/idaholab/virtual_test_bed). Previous documentation on the models hosted in the VTB can be found in [1,2,3,4]. These references also include additional background information on the various NEAMS codes showcased in the VTB (which is omitted here for brevity). This paper primarily provides a status update of the most recent additions to the repository.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

AGGREGATE: dAta-driven modelinG preservinG contRollable dEr for outaGe mAnagemenT and rEsiliency (Final Report)

The AGGREGATE project team successfully developed and validated various modules for outage management. Brief summaries of each module are provided to showcase their strength for outage management and restoration for a distribution system with a high penetration of connected distribution energy resources (DERs). In recent years, inverter-based DERs have been widely deployed in distribution system. A most of behind-the-meter (BTM) solar power generation is not visible to the utility. The data-driven DER and load estimation modules are using machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) to manage this issue, which provides an opportunity for distribution system operators (DSOs) to operate systems and make decisions in real-time for a distribution system with a high penetration of DERs deployed. Also, the estimated DER and true load can be further leveraged in network aggregation and cold-load pick up estimation for reducing the computing complexity and providing for fast restoration. After load demand and DER power generations have been estimated, the information will support topology and state estimation (SE). The topology estimation module demonstrated the viability of mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation to estimate the most likely operational radial topology and outage sections using power flow measurements, historical/estimated load and DERs data and smart meter ping measurements. Formulation includes continuous (power flow, load and DERs data) and binary measurements (smart meter ping measurements) in a single formulation. Errors in continuous data and binary data are modeled as normal distribution and Bernoulli distribution, respectively. In the future distribution grid, the power injection from controllable DERs will be essential for efficient and resilient grid operation. However, determining the optimal DER injections and restoration actions is dependent on knowledge of the system states. State estimation (SE), already the cornerstone of transmission energy management systems, will become commonplace in distribution management systems as more measurements become available from deployment of automated metering infrastructure (AMI). Observability analysis is the first step in SE, as it determines the sufficiency of the available measurements for accurately estimating the current system states. A new type of pseudo-measurement called a Correlational Measurement (CM) is introduced in this module, to enhance the observability of the system to enable more accurate SE. CMs encapsulate knowledge of correlation between demand patterns for similar classes of loads as well as injection patterns for same-technology renewable DERs. During grid contingency scenarios, DERs have been traditionally disconnected, without any fault ride-through capabilities. However, with new regulations and better technology, it is feasible for these resources to contribute to the grid’s restoration after an adverse event and hence enhance resilience. The controllability module proposes a two-step restoration scheme for the power system restoration process by leveraging additional degrees of freedom in power electronics interfaced DERs for mitigating voltage problems. In a resilience mode without the utility system, the distribution grid relies on DERs to serve critical load. In such a severe event with multiple faults on the distribution feeders, actuation of various protective devices (PDs) divides the distribution system into electrical islands. The undetected actuated PDs due to fault current contributions from DERs can delay the restoration process, thereby reducing the system resilience. The Advanced Outage Management (AOM) and the Advanced Feeder Restoration (AFR) modules developed in this project provide improved system resilience with multiple DERs. AOM identifies the faulted sections and actuated PDs in a distribution system with DERs by incorporating smart meter data. The most credible outage scenario including fault locations, PD actuations, and fault indicator (FI) failures is identified by a set of binary integer linear programming incorporating hypotheses. The AFR module serves to restore a distribution system with available energy resources taking into consideration the availability of utility sources and DERs. By partitioning the system into islands, critical load will be served with the available generation resources within islands based on the solution of a MILP. When the utility systems become available, the optimal path will be determined by a spanning tree search algorithm that reconnects these islands back to substations and restores the remaining load. The transmission and distribution (T&D) co-simulation module was used to validate the effect of a control action performed on the distribution side assets as it propagates to the transmission side. This ensures that the control action performed results in a feasible operating point on both the transmission and the distribution system. In addition to validation, the team used the T&D co-simulation module to demonstrate how distribution system assets can be used to mitigate issues on the transmission system. Specifically, the team demonstrated that appropriate switching operations on the distribution side can alleviate the line overload condition on the transmission side without causing new operational constraint violations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Quantifying Firebrand Production and Transport Using the Acoustic Analysis of In-Fire Cameras

Firebrand travel and ignition of spot fires is a major concern in the Wildland-Urban Interface and in wildfire operations overall. Firebrands allow for the efficient breaching across fuel-free barriers such as roads, rivers and constructed fuel breaks. Existing observation-based knowledge on medium-distance firebrand travel is often based on single tree experiments that do not replicate the intensity and convective updraft of a continuous crown fire. Recent advances in acoustic analysis, specifically pattern detection, has enabled the quantification of the rate at which firebrands are observed in the audio recordings of in-fire cameras housed within fire-proof steel boxes that have been deployed on experimental fires. The audio pattern being detected is the sound created by a flying firebrand hitting the steel box of the camera. This technique allows for the number of firebrands per second to be quantified and can be related to the fire's location at that same time interval (using a detailed rate of spread reconstruction) in order to determine the firebrand travel distance. A proof of concept is given for an experimental crown fire that shows the viability of this technique. When related to the fire's location, key areas of medium-distance spotting are observed that correspond to regions of peak fire intensity. Trends on the number of firebrands landing per square metre as the fire approaches are readily quantified using low-cost instrumentation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Heliostat sizing methodology for concentrating solar thermal industrial process heat projects

This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for applications of solar heating for industrial processes at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550°C. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model to supplement the previously developed cost models, which we update to reflect current pricing trends. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWh th . Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the LCOH, producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 7-20 m 2 ; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats being deployed at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Role of climate goals and clean-air policies on reducing future air pollution deaths in China: a modelling study

Over 3 million people still die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor PM 2.5 air pollution, and more than a quarter of these premature deaths occur in China. In addition to clean air policies that target pollution emissions, climate policies aimed at reducing fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions (e.g., to avoid 1.5°C of warming) may also dramatically improve air quality and public health. Yet there has been no comprehensive accounting of public health outcomes under different energy pathways and local clean air management decisions in China. In particular, further research is needed to understand the relationships among climate and clean air polices and future health burdens in China, where an aging population will further exacerbate the impacts of air pollution. Using a China-focused integrated assessment model (GCAM-China) and a dynamic emission projection model (DPEC), we project future Chinese air quality in scenarios spanning a range of global climate targets (i.e. 1.5°0C, 2°C, NDC, unambitious, baseline, and 4.5°C) as well as national clean air actions (i.e. 2015-pollution, current-pollution, and ambitious-pollution). We then evaluate the health impacts of PM2·5 air pollution of scenario matrix using the chemical transport model WRF-CMAQ and the latest epidemiological concentration–response (C-R) functions (i.e. GBD2019). We find that, without ambitious climate mitigation (e.g., under current NDC pledges), Chinese deaths related the PM2.5 air pollution do not substantially decrease—and often grow—by mid-century, regardless of clean air policies and air quality improvements. For example, in scenarios that track China’s current NDC pledge and deploy best-available pollution control technologies, PM 2.5 -related deaths in China decrease slightly by 2030 (to 1.2 million per year) but no further by mid-century (Ambitious-pollution-NDC-goals; 1.2 million deaths in 2050) despite substantial and continuous improvements in population-weighted air quality (27.2 to 16.0 µg/m 3 from 2030 to 2050). The contrary trends of improving air quality and increasing PM 2·5 -related deaths in many of our scenarios reveals the extent to which extra efforts are needed to compensate for the established fact of increasing age of China’s population in future. Substantial decreases in China’s PM 2.5 -related deaths and age-standardized death rates (e.g., decreasing by 0.3–0.5 million deaths and 10.2–14.2 per 100,000 population age-standardized death rates per year) thus require the sort of large-scale transition in energy sources entailed by scenarios that meet international climate goals to avoid 1.5°C and 2°C of warming (Ambitious-pollution-2°C- and 1.5°C-goals).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Multifold Insights for Power System Dynamics From Data Assimilation: Meeting Current Challenges

The world’s electric power grids have evolved over the last 120 years from a single power line to today’s large networks. The evolution will continue at an accelerated rate with extensive smart grid development worldwide. Here for example, the U.S. government has set a goal of reaching 100 percent carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035, while the Department of Energy (DOE) shared a goal to deploy 30 GW and 110 GW of offshore wind by 2030 and 2050, respectively. To meet such ambitious goals, in the years to come, a significant percentage of electricity will come from intermittent renewable sources, electric vehicles (EVs), and be supplied to a vast number of loads that will actively respond to grid conditions and incentive signals. This development is largely driven by environmental and economic factors, such as reducing carbon emissions and saving electricity cost for consumers. These energy resources lead to new uncertain behaviors and dynamics which the grid has never seen and were not considered in its design. Operating such a dynamic grid with sufficient reliability and efficiency is a monumental challenge.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Cyber-Informed Engineering

A continuing challenge for engineers who utilize digital systems is to understand the impact of cyber-attacks across the entire product and program lifecycle. This is a challenge due to the evolving nature of cyber threats that may impact the design, development, deployment, and operational phases of all systems. Cyber Informed Engineering is the process by which engineers are made aware of both how to use their engineering knowledge to positively impact the cyber security in the processes by which they architect and design components and the services and security of the components themselves.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Creating Pathways to Success for Supersized Wind Turbine Blades: 2018 Workshop Summary Report

A workshop on Pathways to Success for Supersized Wind Turbine Blades was conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) at the Kimpton Hotel Palomar in Washington D.C., on March 6-7, 2018. Approximately 40-50 experts and industry stakeholders came together for the event, including manufacturers, transportation specialists, project developers, operators, engineering firms, consultants, and university researchers. Technical experts from the national laboratories and WETO were also present to engage in discussions about solving the challenges faced by supersized wind turbine blades. The workshop attendees participated in evaluating the current status of wind turbine blade design, manufacture, transportation, erection and operation, identifying constraints to cost-effective application of current technologies and methods for blades of increasing size, and discussing needs and opportunities for research, development and deployment of materials, manufacturing, structural configuration, and transportation. The workshop was one step within a larger initiative to identify specific R&D opportunities DOE could pursue to address technical barriers or implementation challenges faced by the U.S. wind energy industry to achieve continued decreases in LCOE. Following a plenary session, the 2-day workshop featured three group discussion sessions, with each session focusing on a specific “pathway” to enabling LCOE reductions for rotor blades of increasing size. The three pathways considered were “on-site manufacture,” “transport,” and “hybrid and alternative,” which included various options involving central manufacturing of sub-elements following on-site assembly. Each of the pathway group discussions was opened with a short presentation from one or more invited speakers, followed by an open discussion with balanced input from stakeholder groups and individuals. Participation among the workshop attendees was considered highly productive. Experts and stakeholders were engaged throughout the sessions and offered significant insights into the challenges and potential enabling technologies for supersized blades. Discussion highlights and take-aways for the three pathways are described.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

ARM Navigation Best Estimate 10 Hz (NAVBE) and 1-min (NAVBE1M) Value Added Products (VAP) for Ship Deployments

The Navigation Best Estimate (NAVBE) VAP was developed in response to the 2012-2013 Marine ARM GPCI Investigation of Clouds (MAGIC) deployment, the first ship-based deployment of the second ARM Mobile Facility (AMF2). It has since been applied to the 2015 ARM Cloud Aerosol Precipitation EXperiment (ACAPEX) deployment. A number of different instruments on the ships collected Global Positioning System (GPS) and Inertial Navigation System (INS) measurements during the MAGIC campaign. The motivation of the NAVBE VAP is to consolidate many different sources of this information in a single, continuous datastream to be used when information is required about ship location and orientation and to provide a more complete estimate than would be available from any one instrument. The result is 10 Hz and 1-min data streams reporting ship position and attitude

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Heliostat Sizing Methodology for Solar Heat for Industrial Processes

This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for industrial process heat (IPH) applications at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550 degrees Celsius. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWhth. Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the levelized cost of heat (LCOH), producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 8 - 12 m2; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats under deployment at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗