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DOE OSTI2022

Robust Optimization for the Day-Ahead Scheduling of Cascaded Hydroelectric Systems

Uncertain electricity prices resulting from the re-structuring of electricity market have brought new opportu-nities and challenges for hydroelectric producers. This paper presents a data-driven robust optimization approach for the day-ahead scheduling of cascaded hydroelectric systems (CHS) with electricity price uncertainty. In this paper, a minimum volume enclosing ellipsoid (MVEE) is adopted to construct an ellipsoidal uncertainty set that fully identifies and exploits the historical characteristics data. Here, a second-order conic optimization formulation of the robust counterpart is derived for efficient computation. A real-world case study is conducted to demonstrate the capability of the proposed optimization approach compared with the traditional robust optimization approach.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed Sparse Gaussian Process for Probabilistic Stability Analysis of Large-Scale Power System with Dynamic PVs and Loads

This work proposes a physics-informed sparse Gaussian process (SGP) for probabilistic stability assessment of large-scale power systems in the presence of uncertain dynamic PVs and loads. The differential and algebraic equations considering uncertainties from dynamic PVs and loads are reformulated to a nonlinear mapping relationship that allows the application of SGP. Thanks to the nonparametric characteristic of Gaussian process, the proposed framework does not require distributions of uncertain inputs and this distinguishes it from existing approaches. As the original Gaussian process is not scalable to large-scale systems with high dimensional uncertain inputs, this paper develops the SGP with a stochastic variational inference technique. It leads to approximately two orders of complex reduction. A data pre-processing step is also introduced to tackle the coexistence of stable and unstable cases by sample clustering and constructing separate SGPs. The probabilistic transient stability index is analyzed to assess system stability under different uncertain dynamics loads and PVs. Comparisons are performed with the sampling-based, the polynomial chaos expansion-based, and traditional Gaussian process-based methods on the modified IEEE 118-bus and Texas 2000-bus systems under various scenarios, including different levels of uncertainties and the existence of nonlinear correlations among dynamic PVs. The impacts of data quality and quantity issues are also investigated. It is shown that the proposed SGP achieves significantly improved computational efficiency while maintaining high accuracy with a limited number of data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2016

Changes in geophysical properties caused by fluid injection into porous rocks: analytical models: Geophysical changes in porous rocks

Analytical models are provided that describe how the elastic compliance, electrical conductivity, and fluid-flow permeability of rocks depend on stress and fluid pressure. In order to explain published laboratory data on how seismic velocities and electrical conductivity vary in sandstones and granites, the models require a population of cracks to be present in a possibly porous host phase. The central objective is to obtain a consistent mean-field analytical model that shows how each modeled rock property depends on the nature of the crack population. We describe the crack populations by a crack density, a probability distribution for the crack apertures and radii, and the averaged orientation of the cracks. The possibly anisotropic nature of the elasticity, conductivity, and permeability tensors is allowed for; however, only the isotropic limit is used when comparing to laboratory data. For the transport properties of conductivity and permeability, the percolation effect of the crack population linking up to form a connected path across a sample is modeled. But, this effect is important only in crystalline rock where the host phase has very small conductivity and permeability. In general, the importance of the crack population to the transport properties increases as the host phase becomes less conductive and less permeable.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-J-110: TG 51 Dosimetry : With Or Without Lead

TG-51 Dosimetry: With or Without Lead. Purpose: In this project, an analytical method has been introduced for adjustment of the TG-51 recommended KQ in order to produce accurate dosimetric data for high energy photons without the lead foil. Methods: These investigations were performed using a 30 cm × 30 cm × 30 cm CIVCO water tank, A12 EXRADIN Water proof Farmer Chamber, a Standard Imaging MAX 4000 electrometer, and 1 mm thick lead foil from Standard Imaging. Complete TG-51 was performed every month with and without lead. The results were analyzed and an analytical model has been developed for comparing the values of KQ. TG-51 Table I was used to obtain KQ values. Results: The dosimetric evaluations were obtained for Varian Linear accelerators Model 21ix and 21ex. These results indicates that the measured data with lead foil in place as recommended by TG-51 is in excellent agreement (within 0.1%) with the calculated data obtained by the new model, from our dosimetry data without-lead. If equation 15 of the TG-51 report is used without any adjustments, it will lead to differences of about 1.6 % (on the average) in relative data which will Resultin differences of about 0.3 % (on the average) in the KQ Values. The KQ value for 18 MV obtained consistently with the equation of TG-51 “with lead” and “without lead” were 0.971 and 0.974, respectively. The 0.3 % higher results for KQ without lead eventually will lead to 0.3% larger output. However, by considering this model the KQ value was found to be 0.971 for dosimetry without lead. Conclusion: The analytical model that was introduced in this project was able to reproduce the dosimetric data of the high energy linear accelerators to within 0.1% without the use of the lead foil.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

SU-C-BRE-01: 3D Conformal Micro Irradiation Results of Four Treatment Sites for Preclinical Small Animal and Clinical Treatment Plans

Purpose: Small animal irradiation can provide preclinical insights necessary for clinical advancement. In order to provide clinically relevant data, these small animal irradiations must be designed such that the treatment methods and results are comparable to clinical protocols, regardless of variations in treatment size and modality. Methods: Small animal treatments for four treatment sites (brain, liver, lung and spine) were investigated, accounting for change in treatment energy and target size. Up to five orthovoltage (300kVp) beams were used in the preclinical treatments, using circular, square, and conformal tungsten apertures, based on the treatment site. Treatments were delivered using the image guided micro irradiator (microIGRT). The plans were delivered to a mouse sized phantom and dose measurements in axial and coronal planes were performed using radiochromic film. The results of the clinical and preclinical protocols were characterized in terms of conformality number, CTV coverage, dose nonuniformity ratio, and organ at risk sparing. Results: Preclinical small animal treatment conformality was within 1–16% of clinical results for all treatment sites. The volume of the CTV receiving 100% of the prescription dose was typically within 10% of clinical values. The dose non-uniformity was consistently higher for preclinical treatments compared to clinical treatments, indicating hot spots in the target. The ratios of the mean dose in the target to the mean dose in an organ at risk were comparable if not better for preclinical versus clinical treatments. Finally, QUANTEC dose constraints were applied and the recommended morbidity limits were satisfied in each small animal treatment site. Conclusion: We have shown that for four treatment sites, preclinical 3D conformal small animal treatments can be clinically comparable if clinical protocols are followed. Using clinical protocols as the standard, preclinical irradiation methods can be altered and iteratively improved to achieve a clinically relevant irradiation model.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-G-TeP4-09: Development of a Plan Data Aggregator for Time Efficient Physics Second-Checks of Machine Parameters for External Beam Treatment Plans

Purpose: Physics second-checks for external beam radiation therapy are performed, in-part, to verify that the machine parameters in the Record-and-Verify (R&V) system that will ultimately be sent to the LINAC exactly match the values initially calculated by the Treatment Planning System (TPS). While performing the second-check, a large portion of the physicists’ time is spent navigating and arranging display windows to locate and compare the relevant numerical values (MLC position, collimator rotation, field size, MU, etc.). Here, we describe the development of a software tool that guides the physicist by aggregating and succinctly displaying machine parameter data relevant to the physics second-check process. Methods: A data retrieval software tool was developed using Python to aggregate data and generate a list of machine parameters that are commonly verified during the physics second-check process. This software tool imported values from (i) the TPS RT Plan DICOM file and (ii) the MOSAIQ (R&V) Structured Query Language (SQL) database. The machine parameters aggregated for this study included: MLC positions, X&Y jaw positions, collimator rotation, gantry rotation, MU, dose rate, wedges and accessories, cumulative dose, energy, machine name, couch angle, and more. Results: A GUI interface was developed to generate a side-by-side display of the aggregated machine parameter values for each field, and presented to the physicist for direct visual comparison. This software tool was tested for 3D conformal, static IMRT, sliding window IMRT, and VMAT treatment plans. Conclusion: This software tool facilitated the data collection process needed in order for the physicist to conduct a second-check, thus yielding an optimized second-check workflow that was both more user friendly and time-efficient. Utilizing this software tool, the physicist was able to spend less time searching through the TPS PDF plan document and the R&V system and focus the second-check efforts on assessing the patient-specific plan-quality.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

TH-CD-209-01: A Greedy Reassignment Algorithm for the PBS Minimum Monitor Unit Constraint

Purpose: To investigate a Greedy Reassignment algorithm in order to mitigate the effects of low weight spots in proton pencil beam scanning (PBS) treatment plans. Methods: To convert a plan from the treatment planning system’s (TPS) to a deliverable plan, post processing methods can be used to adjust the spot maps to meets the minimum MU constraint. Existing methods include: deleting low weight spots (Cut method), or rounding spots with weight above/below half the limit up/down to the limit/zero (Round method). An alternative method called Greedy Reassignment was developed in this work in which the lowest weight spot in the field was removed and its weight reassigned equally among its nearest neighbors. The process was repeated with the next lowest weight spot until all spots in the field were above the MU constraint. The algorithm performance was evaluated using plans collected from 190 patients (496 fields) treated at our facility. The evaluation criteria were the γ-index pass rate comparing the pre-processed and post-processed dose distributions. A planning metric was further developed to predict the impact of post-processing on treatment plans for various treatment planning, machine, and dose tolerance parameters. Results: For fields with a gamma pass rate of 90±1%, the metric has a standard deviation equal to 18% of the centroid value. This showed that the metric and γ-index pass rate are correlated for the Greedy Reassignment algorithm. Using a 3rd order polynomial fit to the data, the Greedy Reassignment method had 1.8 times better metric at 90% pass rate compared to other post-processing methods. Conclusion: We showed that the Greedy Reassignment method yields deliverable plans that are closest to the optimized-without-MU-constraint plan from the TPS. The metric developed in this work could help design the minimum MU threshold with the goal of keeping the γ-index pass rate above an acceptable value.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Status of weak scale supersymmetry after LHC Run 2 and ton-scale noble liquid WIMP searches

After completion of LHC Run 2, the ATLAS and CMS experiments had collected of order 139 fb –1 of data at √s = 13 TeV. While discovering a very Standard Model-like Higgs boson of mass m h ≃ 125 GeV, no solid signal for physics beyond the Standard Model has emerged so far at LHC. In addition, no WIMP signals have emerged so far at ton-scale noble liquid WIMP search experiments. For the case of weak scale supersymmetry (SUSY), which is touted as a simple and elegant solution to the gauge hierarchy problem and likely low energy limit of compactified string theory, LHC has found rather generally that gluinos are beyond about 2.2 TeV whilst top squark must lie beyond 1.1 TeV. These limits contradict older simplistic notions of naturalness that emerged in the 1980s–1990s, leading to the rather pessimistic view that SUSY is now excluded except for perhaps some remaining narrow corners of parameter space. Yet, this picture ignores several important developments in SUSY/string theory that emerged in the 21st century: 1. the emergence of the string theory landscape and its solution to the cosmological constant problem, 2. a more nuanced view of naturalness including the notion of “stringy naturalness”, 3. the emergence of anomaly-free discrete R-symmetries and their connection to R-parity, Peccei-Quinn symmetry, the SUSY μ problem and proton decay and 4. the importance of including a solution to the strong CP problem. Rather general considerations from the string theory landscape favor large values of soft terms, subject to the vacuum selection criteria that electroweak symmetry is properly broken (no charge and/or color breaking (CCB) minima) and the resulting magnitude of the weak scale is not too far from our measured value. Then stringy naturalness predicts a Higgs mass m h ~ 125 GeV whilst sparticle masses are typically lifted beyond present LHC bounds. Lastly, in light of these refinements in theory perspective confronted by LHC and dark matter search results, we review the most likely LHC, ILC and dark matter signatures that are expected to arise from weak scale SUSY as we understand it today.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning-based analysis of COVID-19 pandemic impact on US research networks

Here in this study we explore how fallout from the changing public health policy around COVID-19 has changed how researchers access and process their science experiments. Using a combination of techniques from statistical analysis and machine learning, we conduct a retrospective analysis of historical network data for a period around the stay-at-home orders that took place in March 2020. Our analysis takes data from the entire ESnet infrastructure to explore DOE high-performance computing (HPC) resources at OLCF, ALCF, and NERSC, as well as User sites such as PNNL and JLAB. We look at detecting and quantifying changes in site activity using a combination of t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) and decision tree analysis. Our findings bring insights into the working patterns and impact on data volume movements, particularly during late-night hours and weekends.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Predictability and Decadal Variability of the North Atlantic Ocean State Evaluated from a Realistic Ocean Model

This study investigates the excitation of decadal variability and predictability of the ocean climate state in the North Atlantic. Specifically, initial linear optimal perturbations (LOPs) in temperature and salinity that vary with depth, longitude, and latitude are computed, and the maximum impact on the ocean of these perturbations is evaluated in a realistic ocean general circulation model. The computations of the LOPs involve a maximization procedure based on Lagrange multipliers in a nonautonomous context. To assess the impact of these perturbations four different measures of the North Atlantic Ocean state are used: meridional volume and heat transports (MVT and MHT) and spatially averaged sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat content (OHC). It is shown that these metrics are dramatically different with regard to predictability. Whereas OHC and SST can be efficiently modified only by basin-scale anomalies, MVT and MHT are also strongly affected by smaller-scale perturbations. This suggests that instantaneous or even annual-mean values of MVT and MHT are less predictable than SST and OHC. Only when averaged over several decades do the former two metrics have predictability comparable to the latter two, which highlights the need for long-term observations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in order to accumulate climatically relevant data. This study also suggests that initial errors in ocean temperature of a few millikelvins, encompassing both the upper and deep ocean, can lead to ~0.1-K errors in the predictions of North Atlantic sea surface temperature on interannual time scales. This transient error growth peaks for SST and OHC after about 6 and 10 years, respectively, implying a potential predictability barrier.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

SEFOR Core I-E

This repository contains the VTB model developed for the Southwest Experimental Fast Oxide Reactor (SEFOR) core configuration I-E using the NEAMS tools. The MOOSE Reactor Module was employed to set up the geometry mesh, MC2-3 was applied to generate multigroup cross sections at various temperatures, and Griffin was used to calculate the k-eff values of Core I-E across these temperature conditions. To validate the deterministic results from Griffin, reference solutions were obtained with the Monte Carlo code Shift. The reactivity feedback was then derived and compared against SEFOR experimental data from isothermal tests in order to assess the performance of Griffin. Reproducing these results requires licensed access to several code systems, including Shift, Griffin, and MC2-3. Instructions for obtaining and accessing these codes can be found at the following locations: https://www.ornl.gov/scale/releases for SCALE/Shift, https://mooseframework.inl.gov/ncrc/applications/ncrc_root_griffin.html for Griffin, and https://www.anl.gov/nse/mc23 for MC2-3.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Experimental Testing of a Floating Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter at Hinsdale Wave Research Laboratory

In order to generate a public data set that can be used to validate Wave Energy Converter (WEC) numerical codes, such as WEC-Sim, Sandia National Laboratories led an experimental testing campaign of a 1:33 scale Floating Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter (FOSWEC) in the Directional Wave Basin at Oregon State University's Hinsdale Wave Research Laboratory. Testing was performed in two phases; Phase 1 testing was completed in November - December 2015, and Phase 2 testing was completed in May - June 2016. This experimental testing report details the selection and design of a FOSWEC, experimental setup and tests, and overview of the resulting dataset from Phase 1 and Phase 2 testing.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2019

Measurement of isolated-photon plus two-jet production in p p collisions at s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The dynamics of isolated-photon plus two-jet production in pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV are studied with the ATLAS detector at the LHC using a dataset corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36.1 fb−1. Cross sections are measured as functions of a variety of observables, including angular correlations and invariant masses of the objects in the final state, γ+jet+jet. Measurements are also performed in phase-space regions enriched in each of the two underlying physical mechanisms, namely direct and fragmentation processes. The measurements cover the range of photon (jet) transverse momenta from 150 GeV (100 GeV) to 2 TeV. The tree-level plus parton-shower predictions from SHERPA and PYTHIA as well as the next-to-leading-order QCD predictions from SHERPA are compared with the measurements. The next-to-leading-order QCD predictions describe the data adequately in shape and normalisation except for regions of phase space such as those with high values of the invariant mass or rapidity separation of the two jets, where the predictions overestimate the data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2014

SPIDER: A new tool for measuring fission yields

The goals of this project are to measure fission-fragment yields as a function of (En, Z,A, TKE); develop theory in order to evaluate fission yield data; and provide an evaluation of the Pu-239 fission yields.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

The AGS Ggamma Meter and Calibrating the Gauss Clock

During AGS Polarized Proton acceleration periods, one output from the AGS Ggamma Meter, namely the energy (or Ggamma) calculated from the magnetic field in the AGS main magnets and the beam radius- both measured in particular instant, is used to figure out the times in the AGS magnet acceleration cycle when the beam passes through a particular set of depolarizing resonances. The resonance set occur whenever a particle’s Ggamma (energy*(G/m) becomes nearly equal to n*Qx (i.e. any integer multiplied by the horizontal betatron tune). This deliverable is why the machinery is referred to as the ''Ggamma Meter'' rather than the AGS energy meter. The Ggamma Meter takes as inputs a set of measurements of frequency (F(t)), radius (r(t)), and gauss clock counts (GCC(t)). The other energy (GgammaBr) assumes the field when the gauss clock starts counting is known. The change in field to time t is given by the measured accumulated gauss clock counts multiplied by the gauss clock calibration (gauss/GCC). In order to deal with experimental data, this calibration factor gets an added ad hoc complication, namely a correction dependent on the rate of change the counting rate. The Ggamma meter takes GCC(t) and together with the past history for this cycle calculates B(t).

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Off-Gas Adsorption Model Capabilities and Recommendations

Off-gas treatment is required to reduce emissions from aqueous fuel reprocessing. Evaluating the products of innovative gas adsorption research requires increased computational simulation capability to more effectively transition from fundamental research to operational design. Early modeling efforts produced the Off-Gas SeParation and REcoverY (OSPREY) model that, while efficient in terms of computation time, was of limited value for complex systems. However, the computational and programming lessons learned in development of the initial model were used to develop Discontinuous Galerkin OSPREY (DGOSPREY), a more effective model. Initial comparisons between OSPREY and DGOSPREY show that, while OSPREY does reasonably well to capture the initial breakthrough time, it displays far too much numerical dispersion to accurately capture the real shape of the breakthrough curves. DGOSPREY is a much better tool as it utilizes a more stable set of numerical methods. In addition, DGOSPREY has shown the capability to capture complex, multispecies adsorption behavior, while OSPREY currently only works for a single adsorbing species. This capability makes DGOSPREY ultimately a more practical tool for real world simulations involving many different gas species. While DGOSPREY has initially performed very well, there is still need for improvement. The current state of DGOSPREY does not include any micro-scale adsorption kinetics and therefore assumes instantaneous adsorption. This is a major source of error in predicting water vapor breakthrough because the kinetics of that adsorption mechanism is particularly slow. However, this deficiency can be remedied by building kinetic kernels into DGOSPREY. Another source of error in DGOSPREY stems from data gaps in single species, such as Kr and Xe, isotherms. Since isotherm data for each gas is currently available at a single temperature, the model is unable to predict adsorption at temperatures outside of the set of data currently available. Thus, in order to improve the predictive capabilities of the model, there is a need for more single-species adsorption isotherms at different temperatures, in addition to extending the model to include adsorption kinetics. This report provides background information about the modeling process and a path forward for further model improvement in terms of accuracy and user interface.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Laser Texturing of Magnetic Recording Media Final Report CRADA No. TSV-1298-96

The Commercial Laser Systems Group at LLNL developed a concept for patterning of computer magnetic recording discs. Magnetic recording media require texturing over areas designated for contact in order to minimize friction with data transducing heads. In fabricating a hard disk, an aluminum nickel-phosphorous substrate was polished to a specular finish then a mechanical means was used to roughen an annular area intended to be the head contact band. In a previous patent (US Patent 5,062,021) it was proposed that the focused output of a low power laser with short pulse length could be used to generate the textured pattern. However, the patterned area typically required 75,000 textured spots that needed to be rapidly (less than 10 seconds) printed with good uniformity. A means to achieve the accurate placement and uniform profile, as well as a meaningfully rapid process time, was not discussed in the referenced patent. The LLNL team devised a system that could rapidly and inexpensively accomplish the texturing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Predictions of Yield Strength Evolution Due to Physical Aging of 828 DGEBA/DEA using the Simplified Potential Energy Clock Model

The capability of the Simplified Potential Energy Clock Model (SPEC) to represent the uniaxial compression yield strength evolution under isothermal aging conditions is evaluated for a widely used epoxy thermoset encapsulation material, 828 DGEBA/DEA. A baseline model calibration is used. We note that this calibration did not consider yield strength behavior close to the glass transition temperature ( T g ), but in this work, the model is exercised in this temperature range to evaluate the ability to predict changes in material response with aging as equilibrium is approached. Some model alterations were needed to remove negative Prony weights in the thermal and bulk relaxation function ( f 1 ), which is chiefly responsible for aging in this analysis, but otherwise, the model was not altered. Model predictions of yield stress evolution are quantitatively different compared with experiments, but the rate of change of yield stress with respect to aging time is in reasonable agreement with respect to experiments for the first 1000 hours of aging. After this aging time, the measured yield stress stops evolving, but the model continues to evolve for several more decades in time. Parametric studies and model alterations are considered to investigate how yield strength evolution predictions are affected by modeling choices. It is clear that the baseline calibration must be re-examined in order to represent the aging data quantitatively.

42 ENGINEERING↗